QUARTERLY REPORT Q4 2014 OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS 1 2 OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 > CONTENTS Q4 TAKING RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FUTURE FRED VAN DER VYVER – HEAD: GUARANTEED INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS 04 Unrest in Ukraine, ratcheting sanctions against Russia, a plummeting oil price, Greece potentially exiting the Eurozone and a surprise in Switzerland as the Franc strengthens and equities fall. Each of these are significant world events on their own, but when all these events occur at the same time in a turbulent world of uncertainty the big question is what will the ultimate impact of these events be on investment markets and people’s life savings? Read more... RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT INTERVIEW: ONE ON ONE WITH JON DUNCAN 06 KATLEGO THABA – ACTUARIAL SPECIALIST, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS "How we invest today determines the quality of the future that we will get." Read more... INVESTING IN SUSTAINABILITY: FUNDS MAKING A DIFFERENCE 08 PHILIP WELGEMOED – ACTUARIAL SPECIALIST, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS We will be looking at some of the funds we invest in, which is making a real difference in the world: Development Impact Funds (DIF’s), Agriculture and Renewable Energy. We also highlight some of the achievements in sustainability they have made to date. Read more... INCORPORATING RESPONSIBLE INVESTING INTO OUR INVESTMENT PROCESS 11 JONATHAN LARCOMBE – PORTFOLIO MANAGER: GENERAL EQUITIES The starting point for us, as investment managers, is to deliver on our mandate by optimising returns relative to risk. At the same time, we have a responsibility to invest in companies that are managed in a sustainable way with respect to the environment, its employees and society. In the absence thereof it is unlikely that the company has a long-term future. Read more... REAPING RETURN ON INVESTING IN FARMLAND 12 PAUL RACKSTRAW – MANAGING DIRECTOR OF FUTUREGROWTH ASSET MANAGEMENT In an industry where asset managers are punting increasingly complex, abstract and financially-engineered offerings, one straightforward, real and consistent asset has remained below the radar – agricultural land. Read more... UNDERLYING PERFORMANCE AND POSITIONING 15 TABASOEM PARKER – PERFORMANCE MEASURER, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS KREAN GOVENDER – INVESTMENT ANALYST, MANDATE MANAGEMENT In this section we comment on how global and local investment markets performed over the quarter, discuss underlying performance over the past three years, and provide reasoning for the current asset allocation positioning of the Old Mutual Smoothed Bonus portfolios. Read more... PERFORMANCE TO 31 DECEMBER 2014 19 BONUS SMOOTHING RESERVES 20 KEY FEATURES 21 3 >TAKING RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE FUTURE FRED VAN DER VYVER HEAD: GUARANTEED INVESTMENT PORTFOLIOS, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS Unrest in Ukraine, ratcheting sanctions against Russia, a plummeting oil price, Greece potentially exiting the Eurozone and a surprise in Switzerland as the Franc strengthens and equities fall. Each of these are significant world events on their own, but when all these events occur at the same time in a turbulent world of uncertainty the big question is what will the ultimate impact of these events be on investment markets and people’s life savings? The uncertainty about the impact of these extreme events on been totally discredited. Instead of teaching, financial professionals investment markets and people’s life savings can have very negative should look to implement practices that influence the investor’s focus effects on their emotions as the fear of losing hard earned savings and expectations in ways that lead to more prudent investment increases. This is completely understandable, especially when decisions.”2 people have worked extremely hard and saved diligently for a long period of time and are about to retire in the near future. Smoothed bonus portfolios can protect investors against the risk of making irrational decisions by consistently investing in the right assets EMOTION MANAGEMENT over the long term and then smoothing the returns to protect investors A great risk during uncertain times such as these is that investors from the emotions that may be experienced in volatile markets. The start making irrational investment decisions by investing in asset potential benefit of such a strategy over the long-term can be one of classes when prices are high and disinvesting when prices are low. the most valuable factors that determine the actual return earned by This type of behavior detracts significantly from the actual returns investors over the long-term. that investors earn. A well-known study in the United States show how over a period of approximately 30 years, the S&P 500 Index RESPONSIBILITY STARTS WITH US delivered a return of 11.11% per year, while the average actual Smoothed bonus portfolios have long-term time horizons. With this returns earned by equity investors over the same period were only in mind, it is critical that we take responsibility for the future and 3.69% per year1. consider the long-term sustainability of the investments that we make to achieve our return objectives. This is not only to ensure that we Although it is easy to understand why investors should not make leave the world in a better place for the generations that follow us, investment decisions in such an irrational way, the reality is that they but it is also critical to ensure that our own long-term return objectives still do. One of the key findings of the research mentioned above can be met. also commented that “Attempts to correct irrational investor behavior through education have proved to be futile. The belief that investors In this edition of our Quarterly Investment Report, we focus on will make prudent decisions after education and disclosure has Responsible Investment (RI). We discuss Old Mutual’s approach to 1 Source: “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2014,” DALBAR, Inc. www.dalbar.com 2 Source: “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, 2014,” DALBAR, Inc. www.dalbar.com 4 OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 RI and have a focused interview with Jon Duncan who shares RETURNS DELIVER ON PROMISES various insights about this important topic. The combination of staying on course with our investment strategy, We also have a feature that focus on real on the ground investing in sustainability by focusing on our Development Impact Funds, agriculture and infrastructure investments. Investing directly in sustainability through these funds can be seen as the ultimate practical implementation of Responsible Investment. These investments in the future of South Africa are a great way in which our Smooth managing our emotions and being responsible have enabled our Smoothed bonus portfolios to have had another great year delivering returns significantly above inflation in 2014. The impressive performance of all our smoothed bonus portfolios, together with the usual disclosure of bonus smoothing reserve levels can be found on page 17. bonus portfolios contribute to the long-term economic, social and I hope you will find this report interesting and that it will leave you ecological sustainability of our country. These types of investments with a sense of comfort in knowing that despite the volatile times that do great things, while also providing investors with sustainable high we find ourselves in, we have managed to stay on course, keep our long-term real returns. head and continue to deliver on our objectives. 5 >RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT INTERVIEW: ONE ON ONE WITH JON DUNCAN KATLEGO THABA ACTUARIAL SPECIALIST, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS “How we invest today determines the quality of the future that we will get.” We recently had an opportunity investment; 3. Responsible to our employees; 4. Responsible to to interview Jon Duncan, Head our communities; 5. Responsible environmental management. This of and framework is central to delivering on our core business growth Engagement at the Old Mutual Sustainability Research strategy. RI, as one aspect of the framework, effectively seeks Investment Group. Jon gave us to ensure that we direct the monthly premiums we gather into a better understanding of how investments that generate long-term sustainable growth. Old Mutual engages with the Jon Duncan ideas and principles of Responsible KT:How is RI relevant to Old Mutual’s business Investment (RI) as well as an model of developing investment products that enable overview of RI activity globally. its customers to save for the long term? JD: We believe that the products we sell are critical to achieving Katlego Thaba (KT): What is your role within the long-term sustainable economic growth. Equally important is that Old Mutual Group? money collected from the sale of our products is productively put Jon Duncan (JD): I lead the Old Mutual Group Responsible back into the economy. Essentially, this means being mindful of the Investment programme. This involves catalysing change in our fact that how we invest today determines the quality of the future organisation’s thinking about the risks and opportunities of long- that we will get. Investing in areas of the economy such as those term sustainability issues. It also means trying to encourage both highlighted by the NDP – water, low carbon electricity, education, the asset owner and investment managing parts of our business to affordable housing etc. – creates the kind of stable, macro-thematic understand the financial context to some of these environmental, environment that will allow our customers to thrive and prosper. social and governance (ESG) risks and to integrate them effectively into our investment decision-making processes. I do this work KT: What are some of the milestones Old Mutual has with a committed and passionate team of three other Responsible achieved since embarking on its RI journey? Investment specialists. JD: An early and important milestone was Old Mutual’s active predication in the drafting of the South African Code for Responsible KT:How does Responsible Investing fit into the Investment (CRISA), and I’m pleased to say we are still actively Old Mutual Group’s Responsible Business programme? engaged as a CRISA committee member. Another important JD: Old Mutual has a Responsible Business programme that is milestone was Old Mutual Group becoming a signatory to the designed to respond to our understanding of the broad sustainability United Nations-backed Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) in issues impacting our operational and stakeholder environments. We June 2012. We annually disclose progress towards the application co-ordinate our response to these issues under the following five- of these principles and in 2013 were happy to be one of the pillar framework: 1. Responsible to our customers; 2. Responsible co-sponsors in bringing the annual PRI event to South Africa. 6 OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 KT: Please tell us about the global context of RI. better access to new markets, all of which effectively mean better JD: The global context is that the sustainability spotlight has swung economic performance in the long run. onto the financial services sector, challenging it to consider ESG issues in capital allocation decisions. This is particularly important for market participants that have long-term time horizons. Formally, the global RI movement was kicked off by then Secretary General of the UN, Kofi Annan, in 2005 with the launch of PRI. Currently, there are over 1 260 PRI signatories representing over 45 trillion dollars of capital under management. I think what Ban Ki Moon is referring to in terms of 2015 is that this is the year when all the member nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) meet in Paris later this year, to hopefully sign a universal agreement on climate change, which will set carbon reduction commitments by various nations around the world. Why this is significant is that putting a limit on carbon emissions, fundamentally alters the economics of growth PRI signatories meet annually. The 2014 meeting was held in since countries and companies will have to internalise the costs of Montreal and this year (2015) we’ll meet in London, where previously unpriced carbon emissions. So yes, world leaders have Old Mutual will again be a key sponsor. A highlight for me from a historic opportunity to make a transformative change to the global Montreal was the debate on investment risks and opportunities economy, environment and society. associated with decarbonising long-term economic growth. Science is telling us that carbon emissions need to be reduced globally; the trick, of course, is doing that in a manner that doesn’t kill growth. The investment implications of this are that many listed companies have fossil fuel assets on their balance sheet which may become stranded KT:The Old Mutual Investment Group Responsible Investment team has done research on governance practices of JSE-listed companies. What key findings emerged from this? due to regulatory action limiting carbon emissions. It wasn’t all JD:An important part of Responsible Investment is showing just talk though: several large institutional investors made over two up as a responsible steward or custodian of our clients’ assets. billion dollars’ commitments to index products producing benchmark In listed environments we do this by voting at company AGMs returns but also significantly reducing carbon risk exposure. Such and engaging on material issues. To support this work, we have innovations evidence that you don’t have to sacrifice returns in order developed a proprietary model for rating the governance practices to invest in sustainability. of listed companies. We use this research to focus our engagement activity on issues and/or companies where we believe we can KT: Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki Moon, has materially reduce risk for our clients. Our proxy voting policy is described 2015 as the year for sustainability. What publicly available on our website along with our proxy vote results. investment risks and opportunities arise from the sustainability trend? To read more about the functioning of our RI programme please see our JD:We see sustainability as a macro-thematic trend that is latest CRISA disclosure (at: http://ww2.oldmutual.co.za/old-mutual- fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape across all investment-group/about-us/responsible-investing/ri-resources). industries. Companies that can respond to these trends early should show better resource efficiency, lower operating costs, lower cost of capital, better staff retention, stronger social licence to operate and 7 >INVESTING IN SUSTAINABILITY: FUNDS MAKING A DIFFERENCE PHILIP WELGEMOED ACTUARIAL SPECIALIST, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS We will be looking at some of the funds we invest in, which is making a real difference in the world: Development Impact Funds (DIF’s), Agriculture and Renewable Energy. We also highlight some of the achievements in sustainability they have made to date. DEVELOPMENT IMPACT FUNDS independent low-fee paying schools, as well as for building new The primary objective of the Old Mutual Alternative Investment schools, to support the improvement of education in the country. boutiques' Development Impact Funds (DIFs) is to invest in assets that benefit lower income households and communities, while still generating a commercially acceptable return for investors. The FSC Fund invests in assets that meet the criteria as set out in terms of the Financial Sector Charter. The Fund targets a range of opportunities and innovations at the low-income level, including This includes the following three funds: housing microfinance, black SMME (Small, Medium or Micro- • Housing Impact Fund South Africa (HIFSA) sized Enterprise) finance and transformational infrastructure in • Schools and Education Investment Impact Fund South Africa underdeveloped areas. (Schools Fund) • Financial Sector Charter (FSC) Fund Success by numbers • 3 397 housing units built The HIFSA Fund focuses on new developments, as well as rental • 3 293 housing units sold and end-user finance for residential purposes in the affordable • 206 mortgages granted market. The affordable market targets households with an income of • 3 815 rental units made available under R18 600 pm. • 8 928 student units made available The Schools Fund delivers a significant social impact by providing quality education. It provides innovative funding and infrastructure delivery mechanisms for expansion and upgrading of existing 8 • 9 916 taxis financed (SMME) • 10 322 learners educated in 2014 • Grade 12 pass rate of 90% achieved in 2014 • 365 distinctions achieved across five schools OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 > INVESTING IN SUSTAINABILITY FUNDS MAKING A DIFFERENCE AGRICULTURE: RETURNS THAT MATTER workers on the funds’ farms are enrolled on a pre-paid healthcare Investment in agriculture is integral to economic and social programme (OCSA Care Gold), which gives them unlimited access upliftment in Africa. Old Mutual has investments in Futuregrowth to CareCross network doctors, dentists and opticians, as well as Asset Management’s agricultural funds in South Africa and the rest free medicines and radiology and pathology services. This ground- of Africa. These agri funds invest in farmland that is managed and breaking benefit has been noted and adopted by some of the farms improved in partnership with select operators over a 10- to 12-year surrounding the funds’ investments, thereby extending the reach of period. the funds as a catalyst for change. Environmental impact and worker welfare are key considerations One of the first workers to enrol for the literacy training was 55 years in the agri funds’ investment decisions and ownership practices, of age at the time and had to be taught how to hold a pen before with a minimum of 0.5% of invested capital allocated specifically beginning to learn how to write. She persevered and was presented to worker healthcare and education programmes. These aspects with a framed certificate for her achievement at the first ‘graduation’ are critical to creating meaningful and sustainable change in the ceremony held by the agri fund. Her sense of accomplishment on lives of farm workers and their communities. Literacy levels in rural that day was palpable, but the impact of being able to read and areas are often low and healthcare is inadequate. Where possible, write her own name for the first time is immeasurable. 9 > INVESTING IN SUSTAINABILITY FUNDS MAKING A DIFFERENCE RENEWABLE ENERGY: OLD MUTUAL’S GREEN APPROACH STRETCHES BEYOND ITS BRAND projects, with our Infrastructural, Developmental and Environmental A power deficit affects our economic growth in many ways, have a clean power generation capacity of 631 MW. including forcing industries to scale back on production or expansion plans as well as deterring foreign investment. To make matters worse, South Africa is also the continent’s biggest producer of carbon emissions. With a growing global awareness that the private sector can assist in addressing the shortages of adequate infrastructure as well as facilitating skills development and job creation, the South African Department of Energy put their Renewable Energy Independent Assets (IDEAS) Managed Fund investing over R1.9 billion in nine solar, five wind and one hydro-generation project. These projects Combining a development agenda with bottom-line returns While high social and environmental impact investments are important, the IDEAS Managed Fund’s top priority remains its investors – including the many South Africans invested via Old Mutual products. Infrastructure investments have shown the potential to generate strong real returns that are generally uncorrelated with traditional asset classes, and have strong Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) in place. inflation protection characteristics with stable projected cash flows. To date, Old Mutual has been a leading investor in many of these Fund’s performance. One of our larger projects is the COOKHOUSE WIND FARM, located in the Eastern Cape Province. Environmental impact: It has a generation capacity of up to 138.6 megawatts (MW) of renewable electricity, enough to power 150 943 low-income homes, and an implied carbon offset of 379 776 tonnes a year. Kathu Solar Energy Plant is located approximately 16 kilometres north-west of the mining town Kathu. The project consists of a 75 MW mono axis mounted tracking system comprising 344 540 photovoltaic (PV) modules designed to follow the sun throughout the day. It generates 75 MW of clean, renewable energy to power thousands of homes across South Africa. 10 Renewable energy assets are currently a large contributor to the OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 >INCORPORATING RESPONSIBLE INVESTING INTO OUR INVESTMENT PROCESS JONATHAN LARCOMBE PORTFOLIO MANAGER: GENERAL EQUITIES The starting point for us, as investment managers, is to deliver on our mandate by optimising returns relative to risk. At the same time, we have a responsibility to invest in companies that are managed in a sustainable way with respect to the environment, its employees and society. In the absence thereof it is unlikely that the company has a long-term future. Recent events such as accounting scandals and poor governance engage with those companies to change and vote against relevant at African Bank, price collusion by the construction industry, work resolutions. The last resort is not to own those particular companies. stoppages due to poor labour relations or mines losing production due to poor safety standards (certain platinum and gold mines), illustrate that environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors can have an impact on a company’s share price performance. Therefore, integrating ESG into the investment process is important for optimising the risk return profile of an investor’s portfolio. A focus on sustainability encourages long-term thinking, particularly as these themes take a long time to play out. As we are long-term investors, this approach fits comfortably within the Old Mutual Equities OME investment process. While the earth’s resources become scarcer and companies’ cost to the environment comes increasingly under the spotlight – e.g. carbon emissions and mine closure costs – governments are looking at ways to penalise/tax those companies and in turn drive more environmentally friendly methods. While this is a vexed issue for some companies, the sustainability of the environment is an important and a vital one. In the long term, we believe that unless companies are proactive in dealing with ways to mitigate their negative impacts on the environment and its resources, they will struggle to find capital providers that are well disposed towards them. In our process we The concept of “responsible investing” and the underlying guiding explicitly forecast the cost of some of these taxes to reflect the intrinsic principles of ESG have become topical in recent times. The value of the relevant companies. For example, we have calculated concept can mean different things to different people and some the potential present value of the carbon tax for Sasol as being R10 approaches focus on either a negative or a positive screening billion and lowering its value by about 5%. method for selecting a universe. As opposed to reducing our investable universe, we choose to incorporate a “principles based” rather than a “rules based” approach. It is our view that companies demonstrating sound and/or improving principles and managing ESG issues effectively are, overall, more likely to have sustainable business models, a competitive edge and the ability to manage long-term risk to shareholder value. While implicitly and explicitly incorporating ESG into our process, via the Old Mutual Investment Group we have a dedicated ESG team that provides an overlay to the work we do and assists us in performing sustainability research and engagement with companies to encourage improved ESG performance. In addition, we subscribe to the MSCI ESG ratings system and incorporate the scores into each of our company’s investment cases. The system rates each For example, good governance practices as demonstrated through company based on its detailed ESG score and provides flags on a company’s appropriately structured board of directors, along pertinent news issues on a company-specific basis. with appropriately remunerated and incentivised executives, are generally correlated to creating shareholder value over the long term. The opposite is true where companies don’t reflect good governance. Then as a shareholder we, on behalf of our clients, can Lastly, Old Mutual is a signatory to the United Nations-backed Principles for Responsible Investing (UN PRI), which provides an important framework for integrating ESG into our investment process. 11 >REAPING RETURNS ON INVESTING IN FARMLAND PAUL RACKSTRAW MANAGING DIRECTOR OF FUTUREGROWTH ASSET MANAGEMENT In an industry where asset managers are punting increasingly complex, abstract and financially-engineered offerings, one straightforward, real and consistent asset has remained below the radar – agricultural land. Agricultural land and infrastructure investments, of course, have been AFRICA'S ROAD TO PROSPERITY around since before financial markets existed. Most institutional In 1970, more than 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa were investors’ exposure to agriculture as an asset, however, has been involved in armed conflict; by 1990 that had dropped to 15; and through the commodities futures market, which is highly liquid, by 2012 only two countries were openly at war. This legacy of volatile, expensive, and subject to short-term market movement. conflict has now been turned into a future of opportunity as a broad Many investors are now turning to tangible assets. Over the last decade, the combination of population growth, rising incomes and urbanisation has driven up food and agricultural prices globally – range of reforms and infrastructure initiatives open new avenues of commerce, strengthened by regulatory and legal systems that provide greater levels of transparency and accountability. and in Africa. Food security has become an important issue since In 2000, the Economist described Africa’s economies as “hopeless”. the food price shocks in 2007 and 2008. A sustainable solution to A decade later that perception had been turned around and the this is to be found in policies that encourage investment in farmland. continent is now viewed as an attractive, a viable and prosperous Consider that according to TIAA-CREF, US agriculture has outperformed stock and bond markets for the last 40 years. Institutional investors are increasingly demanding asset classes investment destination. A number of factors have contributed to this, not least of which has been the growth of democracy and the establishment of appropriate fiscal and governance policies. with strong capital preservation characteristics, low or negative By 2025, the continent’s population will reach 1.4 billion and 47% correlation to stocks and bonds, natural inflation hedge and superior will be living in cities. More than 128 million households will have performance in an inflationary environment. This can be met by the discretionary income by 2020 when the collective GDP will hit inclusion of farmland assets in a diversified portfolio that suits the US$2.6 trillion. GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to long-term horizon of investors who seek stability and higher risk- average 5% over the next 10 years, significantly higher than the adjusted returns. 1.5% expected in Western Europe, and indications are that many A UN report, World Population Prospects, states that by 2050 the countries on the continent will exceed 7% economic growth. global population will be nine billion. It goes on to say “land will be By 2011, the middle-class population had grown by more than at a premium and food prices will rise significantly, with a growing 61%, over the previous decade from196 million to 316 million. By demand for more effective and productive farming techniques”. 2020, the food and consumer goods market will be worth more than Over the same period, the global demand for food will double from US$185 billion, and the food and beverage markets are projected five billion tons a year to 10 billion. Africa comprises 20% of the to reach US$1 trillion by 2030. According to the Organisation for world’s land and contains 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) the consumption land but is only 15% of the world’s population. According to the of meat proteins in the developing world will increase by more than Economist magazine and the International Monetary Fund, seven 22% over the next 10 years, and as livestock require feed grain the of the top 10 countries with the fastest growing GDP in the period demand will grow accordingly. In addition, the shift to alternative 2011-2015 are in Africa. Increasing domestic demand, rising energy sources, such as ethanol and biofuels, will see increased incomes and urbanisation drive this growth. demand for corn, sugarcane, soybeans and canola. Such farmland 12 OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 >R EAPING RETURNS ON INVESTING IN FARMLAND investments are referred to as row crops and can serve as part of a assessment, together with a key understanding of market dynamics. diversified portfolio. The expansion potential not only gives an increased lease yield as Africa is on the road to prosperity, and farmland presents a viable investment opportunity. Firstly due to the availability of low-valued, soon as the new land reaches production, but the capital value is also enhanced on revaluation. premium farmland and agribusinesses, and secondly due to the The social impact of the investment is significant and caters for a shortage of locally available capital and skills for agribusiness minimum 0.5% of invested capital spend a year on healthcare development. and educational programmes for workers. From year two of each investment, motivated farm workers are identified and provided with UNEARTHING OPPORTUNITIES the opportunity to receive training in farm management skills. Given the rapid development on the continent, much of the risks present 10 years ago have either disappeared or been significantly reduced. Futuregrowth's agricultural suite of funds invests in commercial farms across Africa and increases their value through consolidation, expansion, and growing production yields to provide investors with a long-term investment strategy opportunity in agriculture. While it ADVANTAGES OF INVESTING IN FARMLAND There are a number of advantages to investing in farmland, notwithstanding the most obvious: as long as people eat, productive farmland will have value. Farmland also produces internationally traded commodities and provides a good capital preservation tool; is a reliable inflation hedge; and there is a low to negative correlation may include row crops in its portfolios, the funds are more clearly with traditional asset classes and thus greater diversification benefits. focused on permanent crops that have a typical life span of 15 to Returns on farmland investments include two components: the long- 25 years – citrus, grapes, apples, etc. – and which deliver higher average income returns than row crops. The funds invest in upgrading farmland and increasing production in rural areas, thereby creating sustainable employment in these regions. Communities are never displaced and only land that has already been earmarked for agriculture is considered. UFF Agri Asset Managers (UFF) is the dedicated advisor for this suite of funds, and is mandated to deliver financial returns, while upholding positive environmental, social and governance (ESG) concerns. The investments are in the actual farmland and infrastructure, which is leased to an approved operator to manage, develop, and run in partnership with the large scale agricultural operators to further enhance its value. Each deal must have sufficient growth potential to enable the funds to develop existing arable land, as well as to purchase additional land, thus deploying capital to maximise the potential available to create large-scale commercial farms. term appreciation value of the land and the annual lease income. Investors are secure in the knowledge that the value of their farmland investments will adjust over time in response to currency fluctuations outside their control, and thus it serves as a built-in currency hedge. A further factor to consider is that as water becomes an increasingly scarce resource – due to factors such as global warming – farmland with sustainable water resources will increase in value. As part of their developmental investment strategy, the funds look to value-added components, such as technologies that improve production and distribution of food, educational services in the communities and water treatment plants. All investment decisions are integrated with an environmental, social and governance (ESG) process from the start. Once an opportunity has been identified, the eligibility analysis begins and takes into account the principles laid down in the Code for Responsible Investing in South Africa (CRISA), the UN Principles of Responsible The due diligence process prior to purchase is stringent and Investment (UNPRI) and OECD guidelines. At the due diligence necessitates intense work on soil quality, water rights and infrastructure stage, an initial ESG assessment is conducted in line with global 13 >R EAPING RETURNS ON INVESTING IN FARMLAND good agricultural practices (GAP) and a final assessment is done According to the World Bank study, agricultural investments have when the transaction is closed. Throughout the remainder of the a two- to four-times greater impact on poverty reduction than investment, annual ESG assessments are conducted, which include investments in other sectors in terms of GDP. A report from the elements such as worker empowerment. UN Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO), Agribusiness UFF maintains a close relationship with the operators on its investment farms, providing advice related to strategy and daily operations, working in close cooperation with related third parties and institutions, and identifying value enhancing opportunities. Investments in South African farmland consistently have yielded a higher return in comparison to local and international equity indices for Africa’s Prosperity, showed that “countries that have achieved economic growth and solved their food problems have also advanced to higher levels of agricultural mechanisation”. We believe private investment in agriculture is a key enabler to increasing efficiencies, boosting production, and achieving economic growth through modern, mechanised farming practices. (FTSE/JSE All Share Index and MSCI World), the local bond index Institutional investors and high net worth individuals can invest in (ALBI BEASSA), and local real estate (IPD Index). Compared to other these funds, which offer a unique investment strategy and access asset classes, South African farmlands have produced higher returns to a pool of assets not generally available to investors. They also with moderate volatility, and that volatility can further be reduced offer the opportunity to participate in positive long-term development when the assets are leased to an agri-operator, which insulates the within the agricultural sector. investor from operational and commodity risk. In short, farmland provides a natural protection tool against market volatility. With agricultural commodity prices recovering after years of decline and the economies and population growth set to boom in By applying the South African model to the rest of Africa, the funds Africa, investing in agricultural funds offer a compelling investment assure that agricultural expansion and development in Africa is done proposition. This sort of growth, quite literally, needs to be fed and in a responsible and sustainable way that makes a positive impact Africa is a massive landmass that has the potential to feed itself three in the countries and communities in which they invest. times over. SA FARMLAND RISK AND RETURN VS OTHER ASSET CLASSES (2003-2013) SA CPI SA Farmland 20% • SA Equities • SA Real Estate 15% • SA Bonds 10% SA Equities 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% • SA Bonds 30% -0.40 Standard deviation Sources: Bloomberg, MSCI, IPD, StatsSA, HSRC, UFF 14 International Equities International Equities 5% 0% SA Real Estate Asset classes Average return (ZAR) 25% CORRELATION TO SA FARMLAND (2003-2013) -0.20 0.00 0.20 Correlation Sources: Bloomberg, MSCI, IPD, StatsSA, HSRC, UFF OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 0.40 0.60 0.80 > UNDERLYING PERFORMANCE AND POSITIONING TABASOEM PARKER PERFORMANCE MEASURER, INCOME AND GUARANTEED SOLUTIONS KREAN GOVENDER INVESTMENT ANALYST, MANDATE MANAGEMENT In this section we comment on how global and local investment markets performed over the quarter, discuss underlying performance over the past three years, and explain the rationale behind the current asset allocation position of the Old Mutual Smoothed Bonus portfolios. GLOBAL MARKETS Cheaper oil fuels global growth a boost of about 0.5% to global growth over the next year or so (provided oil stays around US$60 a barrel). The international highlight in December 2014 was the continued In the meantime, global growth remains pretty slow, except in the slide in global oil prices. After having fallen from US$110 to US where the growth momentum remains solid. Indeed, after an US$85 a barrel during October, the price slid to below US$75 unexpected contraction of 2.1% at an annual rate in the first quarter by the end of November and then slumped to US$57 by the end of this year, US GDP growth bounced back strongly to 4.6% in the of December. While the initial slide was triggered by downward second quarter and 5.0% in quarter three. Moreover, high frequency revisions to global oil demand, a stronger dollar and easing supply/ indicators suggest that the growth momentum remained solid in the demand conditions, as energy output around the world rose sharply, fourth quarter, tracking around a 3% annual rate. the sharp slump in December was caused by OPEC’s decision late in November not to rein in oil production in order to try to support LOCAL MARKETS prices. With this decision, OPEC clearly signalled that it was willing Nothing grows in the dark to accept lower prices in order to squeeze out growing production elsewhere around the world. So, initial assessments that the falling oil price would be modest and relatively short-lived quickly proved to be wrong and the latest assessments are that oil prices may remain at current low levels for far longer than initially thought. Winners and Losers As is always the case with big commodity price moves, there are winners and losers. The obvious losers in this case are the oil producers and the exchange rates of a number of these countries have tumbled further in December. Other losers include companies that supply the oil industry and substitute industries, such as shale gas producers and exploration companies. The key winners are also pretty obvious: global oil-consuming countries. On balance, News flow in December 2014 was a little better, but not universally so. While we saw no more load shedding by Eskom during the month, largely because of seasonally low demand from industrial users, industry experts continued to warn that further load shedding will be hard to avoid – at least in the first half of 2015. Even more worrying is the growing realisation that the electricity bind is going to constrain the economy for far longer than previously anticipated. Eskom indicated that even if Medupi comes on line as planned, albeit more than two years late, the electricity supply will remain restricted for at least another two years. This is because extensive maintenance is required at existing power stations and will have to be done as soon as Medupi’s additional capacity becomes available. the sharply lower oil price is a net gain for the world economy as it This again starkly highlighted the considerable constraint being acts like a tax cut for oil consumers. It is commonly estimated that a placed on the economy – not only dampening growth in the US$10 drop in the oil price, sustained over a full year, should raise short term, but also acting as a serious constraint on the country’s overall global growth by about one-tenth of a percent. This implies medium-term growth potential. As a result of this and other structural 15 > UNDERLYING PERFORMANCE AND POSITIONING headwinds, both the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the be less than expected). If Finance Minister Nene follows through in International Monetary Fund (IMF) now reckon the economic growth the February 2015 National Budget with the tighter fiscal policy he potential has dropped to only 2.5% for 2015, far below the rate promised in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement, the outlook needed to absorb new entrants into the labour market, let alone for interest rates may brighten even further. making a dent in the already huge pool of unemployed people. Another piece of good news was the release of healthy fiscal Brighter outlook for interest rates numbers for November, as tax revenues bounced sharply and On a more positive note, the implications of the sharply lower oil spending held close to government targets. With a few months price came into focus over the past month as the oil price dropped of the fiscal year left, chances have improved that the 2014/15 further. Apart from a considerable saving for households and forecasts fiscal targets will be met, despite the sharply slower growth over the of sharply lower inflation into 2015, with a cyclical low of around course of 2014 than foreseen at the time of the National Budget in 4.5% possible if the oil price and the rand hold at current levels, the February 2014. foreign trade balance should also benefit, as oil imports account for about 9% of South Africa’s total imports of goods and services. More welcome news in December was that both Fitch and Standard & Poor’s rating agencies decided to keep South Africa’s ratings and Moreover, with prospects for inflation and the trade balance both the related ‘outlooks’ unchanged for now. improving on the back of the lower oil price, the SARB kept interest rates unchanged at its November monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting. Looking forward, chances have improved that the further UNDERLYING ASSET ALLOCATION OF OUR SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS interest rate increases repeatedly stated as necessary by the SARB, The tactical asset allocation decisions in the underlying portfolios will be postponed into the second half of 2015 (and there may also are made by Old Mutual Investment Group’s MacroSolutions The table below shows the actual asset allocation as at 31 December 2014 compared to the long-term strategic asset allocation targets: Asset class Absolute Growth Portfolios CoreGrowth Portfolios Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus Portfolios Guaranteed Fund and Genesis Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Actual Target Local equities 44.8% 47.7% 25.6% 28.5% 29.4% 28.5% 37.7% 39.5% Local interest-bearing assets 15.1% 13.3% 34.0% 32.5% 36.4% 32.5% 21.2% 21.5% Local alternative assets 6.6% 7.5% 6.6% 7.5% 3.7% 7.5% 6.6% 7.5% Property 6.3% 6.5% 6.3% 6.5% 6.1% 6.5% 6.2% 6.5% 21.3% 15.0% 18.6% 12.3% 11.4% 12.3% 20.5% 14.5% Global interest-bearing assets 0.9% 4.0% 3.7% 6.7% 6.4% 6.7% 2.0% 4.5% Global alternative assets 3.1% 3.5% 3.3% 3.5% 4.1% 3.5% 4.0% 3.5% African assets 1.9% 2.5% 1.9% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 1.8% 2.5% Global equities 16 OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 Q4 boutique. The boutique takes tactical overweight or underweight Inflation over the three-year period was 5.5% and products provided positions based on their relative view on each assets class. These gross real returns ranging from 13.9% (Absolute Growth Portfolio) views apply to all Old Mutual Smoothed Bonus portfolios, with to 9.8% (MMSB). the exception of the Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus Portfolio. The Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus Portfolio is managed by Old Mutual Multi-Managers and rebalances back to its strategic weight when the respective asset class weight deviates more than 3%. MacroSolutions’ tactical asset allocation calls had a positive impact of approximately 0.9% on returns over the three-year period. However, the effect of stock selection within the asset classes Local interest-bearing assets and alternatives have supported relative performance while local equity and properties were the main detractors from relative performance. The table below shows the three-year underlying asset class performance of the Smoothed Bonus Portfolios to 31 December 2014. reduced the overall performance. Preference to global equity and Asset Class Returns (p.a.) local interest-bearing assets were the key contributors to the positive Local equities 20.1% alpha. Local interest-bearing assets UNDERLYING PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE The following section provides a detailed analysis of the gross returns delivered by the portfolios as well as the assets underlying the Old Mutual Smoothed Bonus portfolios. The focus is primarily on the three-year returns ending 31 December 2014. 8.8% Local alternative assets 17.0% Property 13.5% Global equities 29.0% Global interest-bearing assets 12.9% Global alternative assets 19.7% African assets 22.0% Total Return Benchmark Return Absolute Growth Portfolio 19.4% 19.1% CoreGrowth Portfolio 16.7% 15.9% of Old Mutual Multi-Managers (OMMM) and Electus. The OMMM Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus 15.3% 15.6% portfolio had a tough fourth quarter with both Kagiso and Coronation Guaranteed Fund & Genesis 18.5% 17.5% Product The Old Mutual Smoothed Bonus portfolios delivered strong returns over the three-year period ending 31 December 2014. Total portfolio returns ranged from 19.4% p.a. for the Absolute Growth The local equities portfolio lagged its SWIX benchmark by 1.5% over the three-year period. This was due to the underperformance underperforming the SWIX. ELECTUS’s performance detracted over three years through significant overweight positions in Lonmin, Altron and AngloGold. An underweight allocation to Sanlam and Firstrand further hurt performance as financials outperformed other market sectors. Portfolio to 15.3% p.a. for the Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus The Old Mutual Equities (OME) boutique and the Quantitative Portfolio (MMSB). Guaranteed Fund, CoreGrowth and the Absolute Investment boutique outperformed their benchmark delivering alpha Growth Portfolio outperformed their benchmarks by 1.8%, 0.8% and of 1.2% and 2.3% respectively over the same period. The OME 0.3% respectively. MMSB underperformed its benchmark by 0.3%. portfolio benefited from robust stock selection across all sectors. 17 > UNDERLYING PERFORMANCE AND POSITIONING The allocation to local interest-bearing assets continues to deliver 0.4% over the three-year period. Underperformance can mostly be positive returns of approximately 1.1% p.a. over three years. The attributed to the emerging market overlay, which detracted in value core bond mandate, managed by Futuregrowth, has delivered over the course of 2013. However, the style blend of global equity returns of 9.7% p.a. over three years, ahead of its performance managers has delivered in line with expectations. target and slightly ahead of the median manager return of the Alexander Forbes S.A Bond Manager watch survey of 9.2% p.a. (gross of fees). The Enhanced Money Market portfolio continues to remain ahead of benchmark and performance target over all Global interest-bearing assets comprise of an allocation to the Global Government Bond Portfolio and the Global Aggregate Bond Portfolio. The Global Government Bond Fund managed by periods. Old Mutual Investment Group underperformed by 0.6% over the The local alternatives portfolio delivered excellent performance over the Global Aggregate Bond Fund managed by Rogge outperformed the last three years, outperforming its benchmark of CPI + 7% by its benchmark by 0.9% (in USD). three years to December 2014. However, over the same period, 9.5% p.a., this is a real return of 16.5%. Returns can be attributed to renewable energy deals materialising. Global Alternatives, which is largely made up of private equity, The property returns lagged its composite benchmark by 1.0%. has outperformed its benchmark by 5.8% over the last 12 months However, returns have improved substantially over the past two to December 2014. years. The improved performance was due to lower vacancies and remains behind benchmark over three- and five-year periods, but sales of poor performing assets. Our portfolios are actively managed to ensure that they are well The global equity portfolio underperformed its benchmark by continue to meet policyholders long-term objectives. 18 positioned to gain competitive returns where possible, as we aim to OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 1.44% 1.40% 1.40% 0.64% 1.30% Absolute Smooth Growth (2009 Series)2 Absolute Stable Growth Absolute Stable Growth (2009 Series)2 Guaranteed Fund Genesis 1.25% 1.10% 1.14% 1.18% 0.90% 0.94% 0.98% Absolute Secure Growth (2009 Series)2 CoreGrowth 100 CoreGrowth 95 CoreGrowth 90 Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus 100 Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus 95 Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus 90 3.41% 0.51% -3.64% 0.18% Local Bonds (BEASSA ALBI) Local Cash (STeFI) Rand/Dollar Consumer Price Index (CPI) -0.18% 3.74% 0.52% -1.51% -0.19% 1.08% 1.04% 1.00% 1.08% 1.04% 1.00% 1.24% 1.24% 1.20% 0.64% 1.39% 1.39% 1.43% 1.43% Dec 2014 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 4.2% 1.4% 2.9% 2.7% 2.6% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6% 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% Quarter* Not comparable over the short-term 0.00% 1.55% 0.50% 2.36% 0.54% 0.78% 0.74% 0.70% 0.98% 0.94% 0.90% 0.75% 0.75% 1.10% 0.64% 0.91% 0.91% 0.94% 0.94% Nov 2014 5.3% 10.6% 5.9% 10.1% 10.9% 14.3% 13.8% 13.2% 15.7% 15.1% 14.6% 16.3% 16.3% 15.4% 12.9% 18.5% 18.5% 19.0% 19.0% 1 Year 12.9% 18.3% 5.5% 12.4% 5.5% 8.7% 19.5% 13.7% 13.1% 12.6% 14.5% 14.0% 13.4% 15.0% 14.5% 13.8% 13.6% 17.1% 16.6% 17.6% 17.1% 3 Years 11.8% 15.3% 5.2% 9.1% 5.9% 10.0% 15.8% 12.1% 11.6% 11.0% 12.2% 11.7% 11.1% 12.5% 10.8% 11.2% 11.3% 14.5% 13.3% 15.0% 13.8% 5 Years 12.9% 15.7% 6.0% 7.3% 7.4% 8.5% 18.0% 14.2% 13.7% 13.1% 13.9% 13.4% 12.8% N/A N/A 13.4% 13.5% N/A N/A N/A N/A 10 Years 4.0% 5.9% 1.4% 13.6% 0.1% 6.9% 10.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% Annualised Volatility 3.2 3.1 N/A 0.9 55.0 1.3 2.0 22.8 21.8 21.0 24.2 23.3 22.3 16.7 14.5 23.0 13.6 19.0 16.6 19.6 17.1 Return/ Risk Risk Analysis (Based on 3-year Performance) -2.8% -3.7% N/A N/A N/A -7.9% -5.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% Performance R203 R213 R2 247 R5 297 R918 R1 148 R10 741 R49 460 R14 588 (R million) Fund size Notes 1 Worst cumulative negative performance. Where no negative return exists. it is taken as the lowest positive monthly return. 2 Uses 2009 Series returns prior to the merger. The 2007 and 2009 Series of the Absolute Growth Portfolios merged on 1 May 2012. 3 Source: Alexander Forbes Manager Watch Survey for Large Global Funds (median). 4 Source: Alexander Forbes Manager Watch Survey for Conservative Global Funds (median). Performance figures are net of capital charges and gross of investment management fees for all products except Guaranteed Fund. The Guaranteed Fund’s performance is net of capital charges and asset management charges. gross of investment administration fees. Typical Balanced Fund (Conservative Global)4 Typical Balanced Fund (Large Global)3 1.01% Local Equities (JSE ALSI) Other Indices and Comparative Performance 1.25% Absolute Secure Growth Protection-focused Portfolios 1.44% Absolute Smooth Growth Growth-focused Portfolios Oct 2014 Performance over periods to 31 December 2014 (Annualised except*) Max Drawdown1 (Based over a 3-year period to December 2014) > SMOOTHED BONUS PRODUCTS: PERFORMANCE 31 DECEMBER 2014 Q4 19 > SMOOTHED BONUS PRODUCTS: BONUS SMOOTHING RESERVES FORMULAIC SMOOTHED BONUS PRODUCTS: QUARTERLY DISCLOSURE Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 June 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Absolute Growth Portfolios Greater than 25% 20% to 25% 15% to 20% 10% to 15% 5% to 10% 0% to 5% -5% to 0% -10% to -5% -15% to -10% Less than -15% DISCRETIONARY SMOOTHED BONUS PRODUCTS: ANNUAL DISCLOSURE CoreGrowth Multi-Managed Smoothed Bonus Guaranteed Fund Discretionary Portfolios at 30 June 2014 Greater than 25% 20% to 25% 15% to 20% 10% to 15% 5% to 10% 0% to 5% -5% to 0% -10% to -5% -15% to -10% Less than -15% 20 OLD MUTUAL SMOOTHED BONUS PORTFOLIOS QUARTERLY REPORT - Q4 2014 Genesis 1 Return on a conservative to moderate market-linked fund over the long term, less the guarantee charge 61% 61% Old Mutual Multi-Managers Boutique (non-OMIG Managers) Includes equities, properties and alternative assets (including private equity). Notes 90 95 100 90 95 Return on a conservative to moderate market-linked fund over the long term, less the guarantee charge Genesis 100 Return on a broadly balanced market-linked fund over the long term, less the guarantee charge 74% Positive bonuses each month Positive bonuses each year Guaranteed Fund OMIGSA Boutiques including Old Mutual Multi-Managers (OMMM) Boutique (non-OMIG Managers) Return on a broadly balanced market-linked fund over the long term, less the guarantee charge Secure 1.00% 1.80% 1.30% 0.80% 1.80% 1.30% 0.80% 100% of fund credit on claim 95% of fund credit on claim 90% of fund credit on claim 100% of fund credit on claim 95% of fund credit on claim 90% of fund credit on claim 0.75% 2.70% 0.70% 0.20% Guarantee charge (per annum) 100% of capital invested and a portion of bonuses declared 100% of capital invested and a portion of bonuses declared 100% of fund credit on claim Targets CPI+3.5% over medium to long term (after guarantee charge) Stable 83% 80% of fund credit on claim Absolute Growth Portfolios CoreGrowth Portfolios Multi-managed Smoothed Bonus Portfolios Positive bonuses each month Guarantee in extreme environments Targets CPI+5.5% over medium to long term (after guarantee charge) Protection objective 50% of fund credit on claim Management style and manager Targets CPI+6% over medium to long term (after guarantee charge) Strategic allocation to growth assets1 in underlying portfolio Protection Smooth Performance objective Growth 0.47% - 0.75% (depending on fund size) 0.23% - 0.50% (depending on fund size) 0.23% - 0.50% (depending on fund size) 0.25% - 0.35% (asset management charge depending on asset allocation) plus 0.20% - 0.35% (investment administration fee depending on fund size) 0.600% - 0.725% (investment management fee depending on asset allocation) Investment management fee (per annum) Costs April 2003 January 2003 January 2003 March 1998 July 1999 July 1967 April 2007 (new series launched in April 2009) Inception date Q4 > SMOOTHED BONUS PRODUCTS: KEY FEATURES 21 Q4 > HOW TO CONTACT US Find out more about the investment portfolios in Old Mutual’s range of Growth and Protection Solutions. Contact your Old Mutual Corporate Consultant, Broker or call your nearest Old Mutual Corporate office: • Johannesburg: 011 217 1000 • Pretoria: 012 360 0000 • Western Cape: 021 530 9600 • KwaZulu-Natal: 031 275 0800 • Eastern Cape: 041 391 6300 Email us: • [email protected] Visit our corporate website: • www.oldmutual.co.za/corporate Old Mutual Life Assurance Company (South Africa) Limited is a licensed financial services provider. Jan Smuts Drive. Pinelands 7405. South Africa. Company registration no: 1999/004643/06. omms 02.2015 L78876
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