Global Insight Weekly - RBC Wealth Management USA

R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T
GLOBAL INSIGHT
W E E K L Y
F E B R UA R Y 2 0 , 2 0 1 5
A C LO S E R LO O K
Signs of Life Outside of the U.S.
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
The surge in merger and acquisition activity in Asia and Europe provides more reasons to incorporate
investments from these regions into portfolios.
For months the conventional investment narrative has been
that the U.S. is leading the global economy and the rest of the
world is largely standing on the sidelines.
While the U.S. is growing at a faster clip than many of its
developed country peers, and has prospects to speed up this
year, there are signs of life in Europe and Asia that shouldn’t be
ignored.
Specifically, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has perked
up in both regions.
Since October, Asia Pacific and Europe M&A volume is up 103%
y/y and 55%, respectively, compared to only 5% in the U.S. and
North America (see chart). Volume growth disparities are even
wider on a year-to-date basis.
To us, this indicates corporate and private acquirers believe
there are attractive values in Asia and parts of Europe.
Valuations of publicly traded companies in Asia are generally
lower than in the U.S., and they are reasonable for select
higher-risk sectors in Europe, including financials.
In Asia, M&A growth is spread among developed and emerging
economies, and is impressive indeed.
India leads at an eye-popping 430% y/y growth rate. The
election of a new prime minister in 2014, prudent monetary
policies, and the potential for sweeping structural reforms
Click here for authors’ contact information. Priced as of 2/20/15 market close,
EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in USD unless otherwise noted.
For Important and Required Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosures, see page 6.
M&A Volume in Asia and Europe Has Risen Sharply
Merger & Acquisition Volume Growth from October 1, 2014 to February 19, 2015
(y/y % change)
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
103%
55%
5%
Asia Pacific
Europe
North America
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/19/2015
M A R K ET P U L S E
3
Timing for potential Fed tightening gets murkier
3
Canadian engineering giant charged with bribery and fraud
3
French structural reforms clear a major hurdle
4
China mulling merger of state-owned oil companies
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
U.K.
China
Singapore
Thailand
M&A activity also provides an additional reason to be
optimistic about Europe’s prospects. While we hold a neutral
or benchmark stance on the region (meaning, long-term
investors’ portfolios should carry a benchmark allocation to
Europe), modest economic improvements and the tailwind
from the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program
should support European equities near term.
Japan
The signs of life in Asian and European M&A volume reinforce
our overall positive view on global equities. Specifically, it
supports our overweight stances on Asia ex-Japan and Japan.
450%
400%
350%
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Hong Kong
More notable are the 100%+ M&A volume gains for Spain and
Portugal, which were teetering on the brink just a few years
also. From our perspective, this is another indication Europe’s
worst days are behind it.
Merger & Acquisition Volume Growth from October 1, 2014 to February 19, 2015
(y/y % change)
Malaysia
In Europe, the gains are concentrated in a handful of
developed countries with the U.K. leading, followed by
Sweden. The U.K.’s first-place position should be no surprise,
as its economy has led Europe for some time.
Select Asian and European Countries
Have Seen Heightened Deal Activity
India
seems to have given acquirers reasons to scoop up Indian
companies. Volume growth in Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Japan
also has been strong (see chart).
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/19/2015
WWHHATAT’ S’ SMMOOV VI NI NGGMMA AR RK KETETS S
Greece Cuts a Deal
Greece and crude oil continued to dominate headlines and
command investors’ attention.
With a deadline looming at month end, Greece announced
late Friday it agreed to a bailout extension with its Eurogroup
creditors. For weeks both parties had refused to compromise
as the Greek government rejected austerity measures and
Eurogroup creditors refused to renew the program without
promises of belt tightening.
Even so, financial markets had assumed both sides would
eventually come to terms. The total value of global equities
reached a new pinnacle even before the deal was announced
(see chart).
While the agreement’s details still need to be ironed out,
prospects for final passage appear positive at this stage.
WTI crude oil finished the week above $50/bbl even though
U.S. inventories continued to rise. While a retest of the $44.45/
bbl low could be in order, RBC Capital Markets anticipates oil
prices will begin to recover in the second half of this year, and
increase in 2016. Its WTI price forecast is $53/bbl for 2015 and
$77/bbl for 2016. Our commodity strategist believes crude oil
supplies could tighten over the medium term partly due to
potential supply constraints facing Iraq (see report).
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
The Value of the Global Equity Market Had Climbed
to a New High Even Before Reports of a Greek Debt Deal
World Equity Exchange Market Capitalization (in $T)
70
60
50
40
30
20
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Note: Includes only actively traded primary securities on country exchanges; no ETFs
or ADRs.
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/19/15
February 20, 2015
2
U N I T E D S T AT E S
Craig Bishop – Minneapolis; Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco
■
■
■
■
Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting were interpreted
as more dovish than the formal post-meeting statement.
This renewed uncertainties about whether the world’s
leading central bank will indeed begin to raise interest rates
midyear.
The minutes clearly indicate the Fed’s firm conviction in
the continued progress of the U.S. economy, and if this
were the sole factor under consideration, the path to tighter
policy would likely be a slam dunk. However, by explicitly
linking “international developments” to progress in
achieving the Fed’s employment and inflation mandates,
and because of clear concerns over low inflation levels, the
journey to higher rates is anything but easy. The minutes
were inconclusive regarding the timing of the first rate
hike, although the consensus is likely to remain midyear.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s upcoming testimony before
Congress (Feb. 24–25) could be the next catalyst and should
provide more clues about the Fed’s timing.
After reaching an all-time high on Tuesday, the S&P 500
took a breather for much of the week. But when Greece
disclosed its deal with creditors late Friday, the S&P 500
rallied to another new high. Industrials and health care
(biotechs up almost 4%) led for the week.
The energy sector lagged as exploration and production
bellwether EOG Resources announced it will slash capital
spending 40% y/y and keep production flat in 2015, at the
same time other operators are planning to raise production.
EOG’s decision to leave some oil in the ground at these low
prices and wait until drilling is more profitable led some
market participants to conclude depressed energy prices
could persist. According to EOG, it intends to purchase
distressed companies if opportunities arise. It is perceived
by some analysts as the strongest domestic E&P operator.
The Market’s View of Fed Rate Hikes Has Shifted
Implied Probabilities of Fed Funds Target Rate by the June 17, 2015, FOMC Meeting
40%
35%
25%
20%
10%
Oct 2014
■
Shares in SNC-Lavalin fell 7% after the Royal Canadian
Mounted Police filed bribery and fraud charges against the
company in relation to previously disclosed transgressions.
SNC said it will contest the charges and stated that its
ability to bid or work on public contracts is not affected.
What impact the reputational damage criminal charges
will have on the company’s ability to successfully win new
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Nov 2014
Dec 2014
Jan 2015
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; weekly data through 2/20/15, months
represent month-end dates
contracts is unknown. The timeline to reach a resolution is
another key uncertainty.
■
Consistent with its previously announced capital plan,
Bombardier issued $600M in equity. The plan calls for a
further $1.5B debt offering. Along with the suspension of
its dividend, the issue proceeds will help the company
navigate a period of elevated capital spending as it
struggles to develop and market its CSeries jet.
■
Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields experienced
heightened volatility and moved lower. The most
significant move was in the 3- to 10-year part of the curve.
Investors looking to extend duration should capitalize on
current volatility to take advantage of any short-term selloffs in government bonds.
■
Yields on the 2-year GoC bond hit their lowest levels in
over 20 years as market expectations of additional rate cuts
by the Bank of Canada increased.
■
Prices of rate-reset preferred shares have recouped some
of January’s losses and appear to have found more solid
footing. In several cases, the incremental yield on preferred
shares versus comparable corporate bonds has increased
significantly.
Patrick McAllister & Alana Awad – Toronto
The S&P/TSX edged lower with declines in each of its three
largest sectors—financials, energy, and materials.
Probability
of 0.5%
15%
CANADA
■
Probability
of 0.0%
30%
EUROPE
Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London
■
During the week, European equity markets carefully
watched every development of the Greek debt negotiations
as they came to a head. Markets moved on unconfirmed
reports of any concessions made by one side or the other.
February 20, 2015
3
Late Friday, well after European markets had closed, Greece
announced a draft accord with Eurogroup creditors that
would extend its bailout programme by four months in
exchange for continued economic reforms.
■
■
In order to finalise the agreement, Greece needs to submit
an initial list of reform provisions on Monday, and euro
area finance ministers are scheduled to provide feedback on
Tuesday. The Troika—International Monetary Fund (IMF),
European Central Bank (ECB), and European Commission
(EC)—must validate the reforms. The accord would also be
put before national euro area parliaments.
If approved, the immediate risk of debt default and
eurozone exit would be averted. The bailout extension
would enable Greece to begin to repay IMF loans (first
payment is due March 5), rollover short-term debt, and
continue to fund the government.
■
Even if the accord is finalised, however, Greece and its
creditors would still need to hammer out a long-term
agreement before Greece is required to begin repaying its
ECB loans.
■
A lesser-known, though just as important drama evolved
in the eurozone as French President François Hollande’s
government survived a vote of no confidence. The
government used its special powers to push through
reforms without parliamentary approval, angering the
opposition, which called for the vote. The reforms aim at
cutting red tape to jump start growth in France, which
has been flat over the past three years. As the eurozone’s
second-largest economy, it is critical that France improves
its stagnant economic performance.
■
■
The reforms are intended to enhance the ability to do
business in France by liberalizing the intercity coach
industry, deregulating some professions (e.g., notaries),
speeding up labour tribunals, and introducing Sunday
trading for retail activities. The reforms are not radical
by any means, and do not even tackle one of the biggest
challenge facing labour markets—namely, the 35-hour
working week. Yet, the reform proposals were fiercely
opposed. That the government survived the vote of noconfidence is positive and may embolden it to continue its
reform efforts.
In the U.K., economic data was encouraging, which should
give cheer to the government ahead of an uncertain election
in early May. The unemployment rate decreased further to
5.7%, while wage growth accelerated slightly to 2.1%. This,
and inflation falling further to 0.3% y/y, bodes well for
disposable income growth going forward, in our view. We
thus expect consumer spending, which has been boosted by
lower oil prices, to be a key contributor to economic growth
this year.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Hollande’s Government Fights Off a Vote of No Confidence
CAC 40 Over Four Months
5000
4800
4600
French equities have been one of the
top-performing markets year to date.
CAC from 10/20/14 to 12/31/14 = 7.05%
CAC from 12/31/14 to 2/20/15 = 13.06%
4400
4200
4000
3800
Oct 2014
Nov 2014
Dec 2014
Jan 2015
Feb 2015
Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/20/15
A S I A PAC I F I C
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong
■
As we enter the Chinese New Year period, activity in a
number of Asian equity markets tends to slow down with
several markets closing. Japanese equities have remained
buoyant. The benchmark TOPIX Index rose to a new cycle
high and its highest level since late 2007. The index has
risen by over 5% in 2015. Notably, the strength in Japanese
equities has persisted despite the yen remaining relatively
unchanged against the dollar thus far in the year.
■
Large-cap Chinese energy stocks received a boost when
The Wall Street Journal reported that the government
has asked economic advisors to study the possibility
of merging the state-owned oil companies to improve
efficiency and competitiveness internationally. PetroChina
(0857.HK), Sinopec (0386.HK), and CNOOC (0883.HK), the
three largest energy companies, rallied strongly. A similar
unconfirmed report concerning the telecoms sector had
previously caused a rally in that sector, too. China Mobile
(0941.HK) recently traded at its highest level since 2008.
■
Indonesia unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate to
7.5% from 7.75%, the first cut in three years. Lower inflation
has provided Bank Indonesia with more scope to loosen
policy.
■
In Singapore, where the property market has been cooling,
home sales posted their weakest start to the year since the
global financial crisis began. Only 372 units were sold by
developers in January.
February 20, 2015
4
M A R K ET S C O R E C A R D
Data as of February 20, 2015
Equities (local currency)
S&P 500
Dow Industrials (DJIA)
NASDAQ
Russell 2000
Level
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
Govt Bonds (bps chg)
Yield
2,110.30
0.6%
5.8%
2.5%
14.7%
U.S. 2-Yr Tsy
0.634%
18,140.44
0.7%
5.7%
1.8%
12.4%
U.S. 10-Yr Tsy
4,955.97
1.3%
6.9%
4.6%
16.1%
Canada 2-Yr
1 Week
MTD
YTD
-0.7
18.5
2.113%
6.3
0.403%
-2.8
12 Mos
-3.0
31.6
47.3
-5.8
-63.8
0.9
-60.9
-60.0
1,231.79
0.7%
5.7%
2.2%
6.0%
Canada 10-Yr
1.431%
-0.1
18.0
-35.7
-111.6
S&P/TSX Comp
15,172.24
-0.6%
3.4%
3.7%
6.8%
U.K. 2-Yr
0.414%
3.2
6.3
-3.2
-9.6
FTSE All Share
3,724.45
0.8%
2.8%
5.4%
1.9%
U.K. 10-Yr
1.765%
8.9
43.5
0.9
-103.3
382.27
1.4%
4.1%
11.6%
14.2%
Germany 2-Yr
-0.222%
-0.2
-3.8
-12.4
-34.7
German DAX
11,050.64
0.8%
3.3%
12.7%
14.9%
Germany 10-Yr
0.367%
2.5
6.5
-17.4
-132.3
Hang Seng
24,832.08
0.6%
1.3%
5.2%
10.9%
STOXX Europe 600
Shanghai Comp
3,246.91
1.3%
1.1%
0.4%
59.7%
Nikkei 225
18,332.30
2.3%
3.7%
5.1%
26.9%
India Sensex
29,231.41
0.5%
0.2%
6.3%
42.3%
3,435.66
0.3%
1.3%
2.1%
11.3%
Brazil Ibovespa
51,237.70
1.2%
9.2%
2.5%
8.4%
Mexican Bolsa IPC
43,551.26
1.1%
6.4%
0.9%
9.8%
Singapore Straits Times
Commodities (USD)
Gold (spot $/oz)
Price
1 Week
U.S. Dollar Index
1 Week
MTD
YTD
12 Mos
94.34
0.1%
-0.5%
4.5%
17.5%
CAD/USD
0.80
-0.6%
1.6%
-7.3%
-11.4%
USD/CAD
1.25
0.7%
-1.6%
7.9%
12.9%
EUR/USD
1.14
-0.1%
0.8%
-5.9%
-17.0%
GBP/USD
1.54
0.0%
2.2%
-1.2%
-7.5%
AUD/USD
0.78
1.1%
1.1%
-4.0%
-12.9%
YTD
USD/CHF
0.94
0.8%
2.1%
-5.5%
5.6%
1.5%
-9.1%
USD/JPY
119.06
0.3%
1.3%
-0.6%
16.4%
-2.2%
-6.4%
Silver (spot $/oz)
Rate
MTD
1,202.07
12 Mos
Currencies
16.24
-6.4%
-5.9%
3.4%
-25.6%
EUR/JPY
135.51
0.1%
2.2%
-6.4%
-3.4%
5,766.25
0.2%
4.1%
-9.4%
-19.9%
EUR/GBP
0.74
-0.1%
-1.4%
-4.8%
-10.3%
Oil (WTI spot/bbl)
50.34
-4.6%
4.4%
-5.5%
-51.1%
EUR/CHF
1.07
0.7%
2.9%
-11.1%
-12.3%
Oil (Brent spot/bbl)
60.12
-2.3%
13.5%
4.9%
-45.5%
USD/SGD
1.36
0.4%
0.4%
2.6%
7.6%
2.95
5.1%
9.5%
2.0%
-51.4%
USD/CNY
6.26
0.3%
0.1%
0.8%
2.8%
310.76
-0.6%
4.2%
-3.6%
-17.2%
USD/BRL
2.87
1.2%
7.0%
8.0%
21.1%
Copper ($/metric ton)
Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)
Agriculture Index
Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close.
Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each
pairing. Data as of 9:33 pm GMT 2/20/15.
Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.80 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.80 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -11.4% return means the Canadian dollar fell 11.4% vs. the
U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 119.06 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 119.06 yen. USD/JPY 16.4% return means the U.S. dollar rose 16.4% vs. the yen year to date.
U P CO M I N G EV E N TS
MON, FEB 23
WED, FEB 25
THU, FEB 26, cont.
THU, MAR 5
Germany IFO surveys
Fed’s Yellen testifies before House
Canada CPI (0.8% y/y, 2.1% y/y)
ECB meeting
U.S. Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity (0.05)
THU, FEB 26
FRI, FEB 27
BoE meeting
TUE, FEB 24
Japan Industrial Prod. (3.2% m/m)
Germany CPI (-0.2% y/y)
China HSBC Manuf. PMI (49.5)
Japan CPI (2.4% y/y, Core 2.1% y/y)
U.S. Q4 GDP revision (2.1% q/q ann.)
Eurozone CPI (-0.6% y/y, Core 0.6%)
U.K. Q4 GDP revision (2.7% y/y)
WED, MAR 4
Germany Q4 GDP revision (0.7% q/q)
U.S. Durable Goods (1.6% m/m)
BoC meeting
Fed’s Yellen testifies before Senate
U.S. CPI (-0.1% y/y, Core 1.6% y/y)
All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
February 20, 2015
5
AUTHORS
Craig Bishop – Minneapolis, United States
[email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States
[email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada
Distribution of Ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms
to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC
ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U)
most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings
are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as
described below).
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Alana Awad – Toronto, Canada
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom
[email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom
[email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd.
Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China
[email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc.
D I S C LO S U R E S A N D D I S C L A I M E R
Analyst Certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the
responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No
part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by
the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Important Disclosures
In the U.S., RBC Wealth Management operates as a division of RBC Capital Markets,
LLC. In Canada, RBC Wealth Management includes, without limitation, RBC
Dominion Securities Inc., which is a foreign affiliate of RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
This report has been prepared by RBC Capital Markets, LLC. which is an indirect
wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Canada and, as such, is a related
issuer of Royal Bank of Canada.
Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosure: Alana Awad, Patrick McAllister, and Jay Roberts,
employees of RBC Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate RBC Dominion
Securities Inc.; and Davide Boglietti and Frédérique Carrier, employees of RBC
Wealth Management USA’s foreign affiliate Royal Bank of Canada Investment
Management (UK) Limited; contributed to the preparation of this publication.
These individuals are not registered with or qualified as research analysts with
the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) and, since they are not
associated persons of RBC Wealth Management, they may not be subject to NASD
Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 governing communications with subject
companies, the making of public appearances, and the trading of securities in
accounts held by research analysts.
In the event that this is a compendium report (covers six or more companies), RBC
Wealth Management may choose to provide important disclosure information
by reference. To access current disclosures, clients should refer to http://www.
rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.aspx?EntityID=2 to view
disclosures regarding RBC Wealth Management and its affiliated firms. Such
information is also available upon request to RBC Wealth Management Publishing,
60 South Sixth St, Minneapolis, MN 55402.
References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may
include one or more recommended lists or model portfolios maintained by RBC
Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended
lists include the Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Large
Cap (RL 7), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio:
Midcap 111 (RL9), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and the Guided Portfolio:
Global Equity (U.S.) (RL 11). RBC Capital Markets recommended lists include the
Strategy Focus List and the Fundamental Equity Weightings (FEW) portfolios. The
abbreviation ‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended
List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’ means the date a security was removed from a
Recommended List.
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
Rating
Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research
As of December 31, 2014
Investment Banking Services
Provided During Past 12 Months
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
Buy [Top Pick & Outperform]
Hold [Sector Perform]
Sell [Underperform]
897
686
112
52.92
40.47
6.61
290
137
6
32.33
19.97
5.36
Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System
An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides
research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents
solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months
relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of
Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely
correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same
because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below).
Ratings:
Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide
significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over
12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over
12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over
12 months.
Risk Rating:
As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above
Average risk ratings. The Speculative risk rating reflects a security’s lower level of
financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes, high balance
sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of
financial and/or stock price volatility.
Valuation and Price Target Impediments
When RBC Wealth Management assigns a value to a company in a research report,
FINRA Rules and NYSE Rules (as incorporated into the FINRA Rulebook) require that
the basis for the valuation and the impediments to obtaining that valuation be
described. Where applicable, this information is included in the text of our research
in the sections entitled “Valuation” and “Price Target Impediment”, respectively.
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation
that is based upon various factors, including total revenues of RBC Capital Markets,
LLC, and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated by investment
banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets, LLC and its
affiliates.
Other Disclosures
Prepared with the assistance of our national research sources. RBC Wealth
Management prepared this report and takes sole responsibility for its content
and distribution. The content may have been based, at least in part, on material
provided by our third-party correspondent research services. Our third-party
correspondent has given RBC Wealth Management general permission to use its
research reports as source materials, but has not reviewed or approved this report,
nor has it been informed of its publication. Our third-party correspondent may
from time to time have long or short positions in, effect transactions in, and make
markets in securities referred to herein. Our third-party correspondent may from
time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment
banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report.
February 20, 2015
6
RBC Wealth Management endeavors to make all reasonable efforts to provide
research simultaneously to all eligible clients, having regard to local time zones
in overseas jurisdictions. In certain investment advisory accounts, RBC Wealth
Management will act as overlay manager for our clients and will initiate transactions
in the securities referenced herein for those accounts upon receipt of this report.
These transactions may occur before or after your receipt of this report and may
have a short-term impact on the market price of the securities in which transactions
occur. RBC Wealth Management research is posted to our proprietary Web sites to
ensure eligible clients receive coverage initiations and changes in rating, targets,
and opinions in a timely manner. Additional distribution may be done by sales
personnel via e-mail, fax, or regular mail. Clients may also receive our research via
third-party vendors. Please contact your RBC Wealth Management Financial Advisor
for more information regarding RBC Wealth Management research.
Conflicts Disclosure: RBC Wealth Management is registered with the Securities and
Exchange Commission as a broker/dealer and an investment adviser, offering both
brokerage and investment advisory services. RBC Wealth Management’s Policy for
Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us
on our Web site at http://www.rbccm.com/GLDisclosure/PublicWeb/DisclosureLookup.
aspx?EntityID=2. Conflicts of interests related to our investment advisory business can
be found in Part II of the Firm’s Form ADV or the Investment Advisor Group Disclosure
Document. Copies of any of these documents are available upon request through your
Financial Advisor. We reserve the right to amend or supplement this policy, Part II of
the ADV, or Disclosure Document at any time.
The authors are employed by one of the following entities: RBC Wealth Management
USA, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, a securities broker-dealer with principal
offices located in Minnesota and New York, USA; by RBC Dominion Securities Inc.,
a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Toronto, Canada; by RBC
Investment Services (Asia) Limited, a subsidiary of RBC Dominion Securities Inc.,
a securities broker-dealer with principal offices located in Hong Kong, China; and
by Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (U.K.) Limited, an investment
management company with principal offices located in London, United Kingdom.
Research Resources
This document is produced by the Global Portfolio Advisory Committee within RBC
Wealth Management’s Portfolio Advisory Group. The RBC WM Portfolio Advisory
Group provides support related to asset allocation and portfolio construction for
the firm’s Investment Advisors / Financial Advisors who are engaged in assembling
portfolios incorporating individual marketable securities. The Committee leverages
the broad market outlook as developed by the RBC Investment Strategy Committee,
providing additional tactical and thematic support utilizing research from the RBC
Investment Strategy Committee, RBC Capital Markets, and third-party resources.
The Global Industry Classification Standard (“GICS”) was developed by and is
the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard
& Poor’s Financial Services LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. Neither
MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any
GICS classifications makes any express or implied warranties or representations
with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by
the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of
originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular
purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting
any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third
party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have
any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other
damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Wealth
Management, a division of RBC Capital Markets, LLC, from sources believed to be
reliable, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal
Bank of Canada, RBC Wealth Management, its affiliates or any other person as to its
accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this
report constitute RBC Wealth Management’s judgment as of the date of this report,
are subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without
legal responsibility. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future
returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Every province
in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their
own laws regulating the types of securities and other investment products which
GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY
may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the
securities discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions.
This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation
to act as securities broker or dealer in any jurisdiction by any person or company
that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer
in that jurisdiction. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice
or individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for general
circulation to clients, including clients who are affiliates of Royal Bank of Canada,
and does not have regard to the particular circumstances or needs of any specific
person who may read it. The investments or services contained in this report may
not be suitable for you and it is recommended that you consult an independent
investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or
services. To the full extent permitted by law neither Royal Bank of Canada nor any of
its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or
consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained
herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or copied by any
means without the prior consent of Royal Bank of Canada. Additional information is
available upon request.
To U.S. Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Capital Markets,
LLC, Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, which is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and which
accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. RBC
Capital Markets, LLC, is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of the Royal Bank of
Canada and, as such, is a related issuer of Royal Bank of Canada. Any U.S. recipient
of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in a broker
or dealer capacity and that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any
transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report, should contact and
place orders with RBC Capital Markets, LLC. International investing involves risks
not typically associated with U.S. investing, including currency fluctuation, foreign
taxation, political instability and different accounting standards.
To Canadian Residents: This publication has been approved by RBC Dominion
Securities Inc. RBC Dominion Securities Inc.* and Royal Bank of Canada are separate
corporate entities which are affiliated. *Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund.
®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license. RBC Wealth
Management is a registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license.
To European Residents: Clients of United Kingdom subsidiaries may be entitled
to compensation from the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme if any of
these entities cannot meet its obligations. This depends on the type of business
and the circumstances of the claim. Most types of investment business are covered
for up to a total of £50,000. The Channel Islands subsidiaries are not covered by
the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme; the offices of Royal Bank of Canada
(Channel Islands) Limited in Guernsey and Jersey are covered by the respective
compensation schemes in these jurisdictions for deposit taking business only.
To Hong Kong Residents: This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by RBC
Investment Services (Asia) Limited and RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited,
licensed corporations under the Securities and Futures Ordinance or, by Royal Bank
of Canada, Hong Kong Branch, a registered institution under the Securities and
Futures Ordinance. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does
not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient.
Hong Kong persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities
mentioned in this publication should contact RBC Investment Services (Asia)
Limited, RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited or Royal Bank of Canada, Hong
Kong Branch at 17/Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong
(telephone number is 2848-1388).
To Singapore Residents: This publication is distributed in Singapore by RBC
(Singapore Branch) and RBC (Asia) Limited, registered entities granted offshore
bank status by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material has been
prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives,
financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek independent
advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do not obtain
independent advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Copyright © RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2015 - Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC
Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2015 - Member CIPF
Copyright © RBC Europe Limited 2015
Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2015
All rights reserved
February 20, 2015
7