R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T GLOBAL INSIGHT W E E K L Y F E B R UA R Y 2 0 , 2 0 1 5 A C LO S E R LO O K Signs of Life Outside of the U.S. Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco The surge in merger and acquisition activity in Asia and Europe provides more reasons to incorporate investments from these regions into portfolios. For months the conventional investment narrative has been that the U.S. is leading the global economy and the rest of the world is largely standing on the sidelines. While the U.S. is growing at a faster clip than many of its developed country peers, and has prospects to speed up this year, there are signs of life in Europe and Asia that shouldn’t be ignored. Specifically, merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has perked up in both regions. Since October, Asia Pacific and Europe M&A volume is up 103% y/y and 55%, respectively, compared to only 5% in the U.S. and North America (see chart). Volume growth disparities are even wider on a year-to-date basis. To us, this indicates corporate and private acquirers believe there are attractive values in Asia and parts of Europe. Valuations of publicly traded companies in Asia are generally lower than in the U.S., and they are reasonable for select higher-risk sectors in Europe, including financials. In Asia, M&A growth is spread among developed and emerging economies, and is impressive indeed. India leads at an eye-popping 430% y/y growth rate. The election of a new prime minister in 2014, prudent monetary policies, and the potential for sweeping structural reforms Click here for authors’ contact information. Priced as of 2/20/15 market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in USD unless otherwise noted. For Important and Required Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosures, see page 6. M&A Volume in Asia and Europe Has Risen Sharply Merger & Acquisition Volume Growth from October 1, 2014 to February 19, 2015 (y/y % change) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 103% 55% 5% Asia Pacific Europe North America Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/19/2015 M A R K ET P U L S E 3 Timing for potential Fed tightening gets murkier 3 Canadian engineering giant charged with bribery and fraud 3 French structural reforms clear a major hurdle 4 China mulling merger of state-owned oil companies Portugal Spain Sweden U.K. China Singapore Thailand M&A activity also provides an additional reason to be optimistic about Europe’s prospects. While we hold a neutral or benchmark stance on the region (meaning, long-term investors’ portfolios should carry a benchmark allocation to Europe), modest economic improvements and the tailwind from the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing program should support European equities near term. Japan The signs of life in Asian and European M&A volume reinforce our overall positive view on global equities. Specifically, it supports our overweight stances on Asia ex-Japan and Japan. 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Hong Kong More notable are the 100%+ M&A volume gains for Spain and Portugal, which were teetering on the brink just a few years also. From our perspective, this is another indication Europe’s worst days are behind it. Merger & Acquisition Volume Growth from October 1, 2014 to February 19, 2015 (y/y % change) Malaysia In Europe, the gains are concentrated in a handful of developed countries with the U.K. leading, followed by Sweden. The U.K.’s first-place position should be no surprise, as its economy has led Europe for some time. Select Asian and European Countries Have Seen Heightened Deal Activity India seems to have given acquirers reasons to scoop up Indian companies. Volume growth in Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Japan also has been strong (see chart). Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/19/2015 WWHHATAT’ S’ SMMOOV VI NI NGGMMA AR RK KETETS S Greece Cuts a Deal Greece and crude oil continued to dominate headlines and command investors’ attention. With a deadline looming at month end, Greece announced late Friday it agreed to a bailout extension with its Eurogroup creditors. For weeks both parties had refused to compromise as the Greek government rejected austerity measures and Eurogroup creditors refused to renew the program without promises of belt tightening. Even so, financial markets had assumed both sides would eventually come to terms. The total value of global equities reached a new pinnacle even before the deal was announced (see chart). While the agreement’s details still need to be ironed out, prospects for final passage appear positive at this stage. WTI crude oil finished the week above $50/bbl even though U.S. inventories continued to rise. While a retest of the $44.45/ bbl low could be in order, RBC Capital Markets anticipates oil prices will begin to recover in the second half of this year, and increase in 2016. Its WTI price forecast is $53/bbl for 2015 and $77/bbl for 2016. Our commodity strategist believes crude oil supplies could tighten over the medium term partly due to potential supply constraints facing Iraq (see report). GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY The Value of the Global Equity Market Had Climbed to a New High Even Before Reports of a Greek Debt Deal World Equity Exchange Market Capitalization (in $T) 70 60 50 40 30 20 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Note: Includes only actively traded primary securities on country exchanges; no ETFs or ADRs. Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/19/15 February 20, 2015 2 U N I T E D S T AT E S Craig Bishop – Minneapolis; Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco ■ ■ ■ ■ Minutes from the Fed’s January meeting were interpreted as more dovish than the formal post-meeting statement. This renewed uncertainties about whether the world’s leading central bank will indeed begin to raise interest rates midyear. The minutes clearly indicate the Fed’s firm conviction in the continued progress of the U.S. economy, and if this were the sole factor under consideration, the path to tighter policy would likely be a slam dunk. However, by explicitly linking “international developments” to progress in achieving the Fed’s employment and inflation mandates, and because of clear concerns over low inflation levels, the journey to higher rates is anything but easy. The minutes were inconclusive regarding the timing of the first rate hike, although the consensus is likely to remain midyear. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s upcoming testimony before Congress (Feb. 24–25) could be the next catalyst and should provide more clues about the Fed’s timing. After reaching an all-time high on Tuesday, the S&P 500 took a breather for much of the week. But when Greece disclosed its deal with creditors late Friday, the S&P 500 rallied to another new high. Industrials and health care (biotechs up almost 4%) led for the week. The energy sector lagged as exploration and production bellwether EOG Resources announced it will slash capital spending 40% y/y and keep production flat in 2015, at the same time other operators are planning to raise production. EOG’s decision to leave some oil in the ground at these low prices and wait until drilling is more profitable led some market participants to conclude depressed energy prices could persist. According to EOG, it intends to purchase distressed companies if opportunities arise. It is perceived by some analysts as the strongest domestic E&P operator. The Market’s View of Fed Rate Hikes Has Shifted Implied Probabilities of Fed Funds Target Rate by the June 17, 2015, FOMC Meeting 40% 35% 25% 20% 10% Oct 2014 ■ Shares in SNC-Lavalin fell 7% after the Royal Canadian Mounted Police filed bribery and fraud charges against the company in relation to previously disclosed transgressions. SNC said it will contest the charges and stated that its ability to bid or work on public contracts is not affected. What impact the reputational damage criminal charges will have on the company’s ability to successfully win new GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; weekly data through 2/20/15, months represent month-end dates contracts is unknown. The timeline to reach a resolution is another key uncertainty. ■ Consistent with its previously announced capital plan, Bombardier issued $600M in equity. The plan calls for a further $1.5B debt offering. Along with the suspension of its dividend, the issue proceeds will help the company navigate a period of elevated capital spending as it struggles to develop and market its CSeries jet. ■ Government of Canada (GoC) bond yields experienced heightened volatility and moved lower. The most significant move was in the 3- to 10-year part of the curve. Investors looking to extend duration should capitalize on current volatility to take advantage of any short-term selloffs in government bonds. ■ Yields on the 2-year GoC bond hit their lowest levels in over 20 years as market expectations of additional rate cuts by the Bank of Canada increased. ■ Prices of rate-reset preferred shares have recouped some of January’s losses and appear to have found more solid footing. In several cases, the incremental yield on preferred shares versus comparable corporate bonds has increased significantly. Patrick McAllister & Alana Awad – Toronto The S&P/TSX edged lower with declines in each of its three largest sectors—financials, energy, and materials. Probability of 0.5% 15% CANADA ■ Probability of 0.0% 30% EUROPE Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London ■ During the week, European equity markets carefully watched every development of the Greek debt negotiations as they came to a head. Markets moved on unconfirmed reports of any concessions made by one side or the other. February 20, 2015 3 Late Friday, well after European markets had closed, Greece announced a draft accord with Eurogroup creditors that would extend its bailout programme by four months in exchange for continued economic reforms. ■ ■ In order to finalise the agreement, Greece needs to submit an initial list of reform provisions on Monday, and euro area finance ministers are scheduled to provide feedback on Tuesday. The Troika—International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Central Bank (ECB), and European Commission (EC)—must validate the reforms. The accord would also be put before national euro area parliaments. If approved, the immediate risk of debt default and eurozone exit would be averted. The bailout extension would enable Greece to begin to repay IMF loans (first payment is due March 5), rollover short-term debt, and continue to fund the government. ■ Even if the accord is finalised, however, Greece and its creditors would still need to hammer out a long-term agreement before Greece is required to begin repaying its ECB loans. ■ A lesser-known, though just as important drama evolved in the eurozone as French President François Hollande’s government survived a vote of no confidence. The government used its special powers to push through reforms without parliamentary approval, angering the opposition, which called for the vote. The reforms aim at cutting red tape to jump start growth in France, which has been flat over the past three years. As the eurozone’s second-largest economy, it is critical that France improves its stagnant economic performance. ■ ■ The reforms are intended to enhance the ability to do business in France by liberalizing the intercity coach industry, deregulating some professions (e.g., notaries), speeding up labour tribunals, and introducing Sunday trading for retail activities. The reforms are not radical by any means, and do not even tackle one of the biggest challenge facing labour markets—namely, the 35-hour working week. Yet, the reform proposals were fiercely opposed. That the government survived the vote of noconfidence is positive and may embolden it to continue its reform efforts. In the U.K., economic data was encouraging, which should give cheer to the government ahead of an uncertain election in early May. The unemployment rate decreased further to 5.7%, while wage growth accelerated slightly to 2.1%. This, and inflation falling further to 0.3% y/y, bodes well for disposable income growth going forward, in our view. We thus expect consumer spending, which has been boosted by lower oil prices, to be a key contributor to economic growth this year. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY Hollande’s Government Fights Off a Vote of No Confidence CAC 40 Over Four Months 5000 4800 4600 French equities have been one of the top-performing markets year to date. CAC from 10/20/14 to 12/31/14 = 7.05% CAC from 12/31/14 to 2/20/15 = 13.06% 4400 4200 4000 3800 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Feb 2015 Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data through 2/20/15 A S I A PAC I F I C Jay Roberts – Hong Kong ■ As we enter the Chinese New Year period, activity in a number of Asian equity markets tends to slow down with several markets closing. Japanese equities have remained buoyant. The benchmark TOPIX Index rose to a new cycle high and its highest level since late 2007. The index has risen by over 5% in 2015. Notably, the strength in Japanese equities has persisted despite the yen remaining relatively unchanged against the dollar thus far in the year. ■ Large-cap Chinese energy stocks received a boost when The Wall Street Journal reported that the government has asked economic advisors to study the possibility of merging the state-owned oil companies to improve efficiency and competitiveness internationally. PetroChina (0857.HK), Sinopec (0386.HK), and CNOOC (0883.HK), the three largest energy companies, rallied strongly. A similar unconfirmed report concerning the telecoms sector had previously caused a rally in that sector, too. China Mobile (0941.HK) recently traded at its highest level since 2008. ■ Indonesia unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate to 7.5% from 7.75%, the first cut in three years. Lower inflation has provided Bank Indonesia with more scope to loosen policy. ■ In Singapore, where the property market has been cooling, home sales posted their weakest start to the year since the global financial crisis began. Only 372 units were sold by developers in January. February 20, 2015 4 M A R K ET S C O R E C A R D Data as of February 20, 2015 Equities (local currency) S&P 500 Dow Industrials (DJIA) NASDAQ Russell 2000 Level 1 Week MTD YTD 12 Mos Govt Bonds (bps chg) Yield 2,110.30 0.6% 5.8% 2.5% 14.7% U.S. 2-Yr Tsy 0.634% 18,140.44 0.7% 5.7% 1.8% 12.4% U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 4,955.97 1.3% 6.9% 4.6% 16.1% Canada 2-Yr 1 Week MTD YTD -0.7 18.5 2.113% 6.3 0.403% -2.8 12 Mos -3.0 31.6 47.3 -5.8 -63.8 0.9 -60.9 -60.0 1,231.79 0.7% 5.7% 2.2% 6.0% Canada 10-Yr 1.431% -0.1 18.0 -35.7 -111.6 S&P/TSX Comp 15,172.24 -0.6% 3.4% 3.7% 6.8% U.K. 2-Yr 0.414% 3.2 6.3 -3.2 -9.6 FTSE All Share 3,724.45 0.8% 2.8% 5.4% 1.9% U.K. 10-Yr 1.765% 8.9 43.5 0.9 -103.3 382.27 1.4% 4.1% 11.6% 14.2% Germany 2-Yr -0.222% -0.2 -3.8 -12.4 -34.7 German DAX 11,050.64 0.8% 3.3% 12.7% 14.9% Germany 10-Yr 0.367% 2.5 6.5 -17.4 -132.3 Hang Seng 24,832.08 0.6% 1.3% 5.2% 10.9% STOXX Europe 600 Shanghai Comp 3,246.91 1.3% 1.1% 0.4% 59.7% Nikkei 225 18,332.30 2.3% 3.7% 5.1% 26.9% India Sensex 29,231.41 0.5% 0.2% 6.3% 42.3% 3,435.66 0.3% 1.3% 2.1% 11.3% Brazil Ibovespa 51,237.70 1.2% 9.2% 2.5% 8.4% Mexican Bolsa IPC 43,551.26 1.1% 6.4% 0.9% 9.8% Singapore Straits Times Commodities (USD) Gold (spot $/oz) Price 1 Week U.S. Dollar Index 1 Week MTD YTD 12 Mos 94.34 0.1% -0.5% 4.5% 17.5% CAD/USD 0.80 -0.6% 1.6% -7.3% -11.4% USD/CAD 1.25 0.7% -1.6% 7.9% 12.9% EUR/USD 1.14 -0.1% 0.8% -5.9% -17.0% GBP/USD 1.54 0.0% 2.2% -1.2% -7.5% AUD/USD 0.78 1.1% 1.1% -4.0% -12.9% YTD USD/CHF 0.94 0.8% 2.1% -5.5% 5.6% 1.5% -9.1% USD/JPY 119.06 0.3% 1.3% -0.6% 16.4% -2.2% -6.4% Silver (spot $/oz) Rate MTD 1,202.07 12 Mos Currencies 16.24 -6.4% -5.9% 3.4% -25.6% EUR/JPY 135.51 0.1% 2.2% -6.4% -3.4% 5,766.25 0.2% 4.1% -9.4% -19.9% EUR/GBP 0.74 -0.1% -1.4% -4.8% -10.3% Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 50.34 -4.6% 4.4% -5.5% -51.1% EUR/CHF 1.07 0.7% 2.9% -11.1% -12.3% Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 60.12 -2.3% 13.5% 4.9% -45.5% USD/SGD 1.36 0.4% 0.4% 2.6% 7.6% 2.95 5.1% 9.5% 2.0% -51.4% USD/CNY 6.26 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 2.8% 310.76 -0.6% 4.2% -3.6% -17.2% USD/BRL 2.87 1.2% 7.0% 8.0% 21.1% Copper ($/metric ton) Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) Agriculture Index Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 9:33 pm GMT 2/20/15. Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.80 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.80 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -11.4% return means the Canadian dollar fell 11.4% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 119.06 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 119.06 yen. USD/JPY 16.4% return means the U.S. dollar rose 16.4% vs. the yen year to date. U P CO M I N G EV E N TS MON, FEB 23 WED, FEB 25 THU, FEB 26, cont. THU, MAR 5 Germany IFO surveys Fed’s Yellen testifies before House Canada CPI (0.8% y/y, 2.1% y/y) ECB meeting U.S. Chicago Fed Nat’l Activity (0.05) THU, FEB 26 FRI, FEB 27 BoE meeting TUE, FEB 24 Japan Industrial Prod. (3.2% m/m) Germany CPI (-0.2% y/y) China HSBC Manuf. PMI (49.5) Japan CPI (2.4% y/y, Core 2.1% y/y) U.S. Q4 GDP revision (2.1% q/q ann.) Eurozone CPI (-0.6% y/y, Core 0.6%) U.K. Q4 GDP revision (2.7% y/y) WED, MAR 4 Germany Q4 GDP revision (0.7% q/q) U.S. Durable Goods (1.6% m/m) BoC meeting Fed’s Yellen testifies before Senate U.S. CPI (-0.1% y/y, Core 1.6% y/y) All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY February 20, 2015 5 AUTHORS Craig Bishop – Minneapolis, United States [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada Distribution of Ratings For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below). [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Alana Awad – Toronto, Canada [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 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The abbreviation ‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’ means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY Rating Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research As of December 31, 2014 Investment Banking Services Provided During Past 12 Months Count Percent Count Percent Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] Hold [Sector Perform] Sell [Underperform] 897 686 112 52.92 40.47 6.61 290 137 6 32.33 19.97 5.36 Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst’s sector average. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below). Ratings: Top Pick (TP): Represents analyst’s best idea in the sector; expected to provide significant absolute total return over 12 months with a favorable risk-reward ratio. Outperform (O): Expected to materially outperform sector average over 12 months. Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months. Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months. Risk Rating: As of March 31, 2013, RBC Capital Markets, LLC suspends its Average and Above Average risk ratings. 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This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. Hong Kong persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities mentioned in this publication should contact RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited, RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited or Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch at 17/Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong (telephone number is 2848-1388). To Singapore Residents: This publication is distributed in Singapore by RBC (Singapore Branch) and RBC (Asia) Limited, registered entities granted offshore bank status by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek independent advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do not obtain independent advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Copyright © RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2015 - Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2015 - Member CIPF Copyright © RBC Europe Limited 2015 Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2015 All rights reserved February 20, 2015 7
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