機構股票研究
金風科技 (2208.HK)
明年增速或下滑
中國 | 新能源| 更新報告
市場份額下滑
中國可再生能源學會風能專業委員會發佈 2014 年風電裝機情況統計，公司以約 19%
的市場份額繼續保持國內第一，但較 2013 年下降 4 個百分點，而排名 2 到 5 位的聯
合動力、明陽風電、遠景能源、湘電風能的市場份額增長較快。我們認為國內大型風
機製造商的競爭日趨激烈，各廠商的技術研發也讓各自的產品更有競爭力，未來公司
的市場份額還有繼續下降的可能。
棄風率可能上升
2014 年全年全國新增裝機量達到 23GW，同比大幅增長 45%，其中一部分原因是之
前傳言 2015 年 6 月 30 日前建造完成的風機可以不受到上網電價下調的影響，而最終
的風電調價政策為 2015 年 12 月 31 日前並網的風機不收調價影響，這讓 2015 年必然
還有搶裝的項目，連續兩年的搶裝可能在 2016 年造成棄風率的增長，在高棄風率及
低電價的雙重因素下，預計 2016 年國內風電裝機量可能出現萎縮。
估值
風機製造行業在 2015 年預計還會有較好的表現，但 2016 年的業績可能會有所下降。
加之行業競爭更加激烈，未來原材料價格也可能上漲造成毛利率的下降，我們認為公
司的業績增長速度可能會存在瓶頸，我們下調公司目標價至 12.45 港元，下調至“增持”
評級。
23 February 2015
增持 (下調
下調)
下調
現價
11.64HK$
目標價 12.45HK$
公司資料
普通股股東 (百萬股) :
市值 (港幣億元) :
52 周最高價/最低價 (港元) :
2694
58.21
7.3/ 15.26
主要股東，
主要股東， %
新疆風能有限責任公司:
中國長江三峽集團公司
:
13.95
24.67
股價表現，
股價表現， %
金風科技
恒生指數
1 個月
-7.18
-11.78
3 個月
-0.17
-6.41
1年
37.43
27.86
股價 & 恒生指數
Source: Phillip Securities (HK) Research
財務資料
Key Financial Summary
FYE
12/12
Operating Profit (RMB 000)
478,755
677,258 7,535,315 8,984,768
Net Profit, adj. (RMB 000)
153,054
427,646 1,832,596 2,219,040
EPS, adj. (RMB)
P/E (X)
0.06
177.1
12/13
0.16
66.4
0.68
15.6
12/15F
0.83
12.8
BVPS (RMB)
4.79
4.96
5.77
P/B (X)
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.6
DPS (RMB)
0.06
0.08
0.12
0.20
Div. Yield
0.5%
0.8%
1.1%
1.9%
Source: Bloomberg, PSR est.
*All multiples & yields based on current market price
研究部 (+ 86 21 51699400-104)
[email protected]
Page | 1 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
12/14F
6.59
金風科技（
金風科技（2208HK）
）更新報告
財務報告
For Financial Sum m ary at the end of report
FYE
Valuation Ratios
P/E (X)
P/B (X)
Dividend Payout ratio
Dividend Yield
Per share data (RMB)
EPS, reported
EPS, adj.
DPS
BVPS
Grow th
Revenue
Operating income
Net Income, adj.
Key Ratios
Current ratio
Gross profit margin
Net profit margin
Return on average assets
Return on average equity
Liability/asset
Incom e statem ent (thousand RMB)
Operating revenue
Cost of good sell
Gross profit
Other net profit
Adiministractive expenses
Selling expenses
Other cost
Operating profit
Investment income
Interest expense
Profit before tax
Income tax
Effective income tax rate
Net profit for the period
Minority interest
Net profit attributable to equity holders
Dividend paid
Balance Sheet (thousand RMB)
Cash or cash eqivalent
Account receivable
Inventory
Other current assets
PPE
Intangible assets
Other non-current assets
Total Assets
Cash payable
Short term loan
Other current liability
Long term loan
Other non-current liability
Total Liabilities
Shareholders' equity
Minority interest
Total shareholders’ equity
Total shareholders’ equity and liabilities
Source: PSR
FY11
FY12
FY13F
FY14F
FY15F
46.2
2.2
21.74%
0.47%
177.1
2.2
91.67%
0.52%
66.4
2.1
50.00%
0.75%
15.6
1.8
17.65%
1.13%
12.8
1.6
24.10%
1.88%
0.23
0.23
0.05
4.78
0.06
0.06
0.06
4.79
0.16
0.16
0.08
4.96
0.68
0.68
0.12
5.77
0.83
0.83
0.20
6.59
-27.5%
-62.1%
-73.5%
-12.0%
-53.0%
-74.8%
8.7%
41.5%
179.4%
40.0%
1012.6%
328.5%
20.0%
19.2%
21.1%
161.44%
16.12%
4.76%
2.01%
4.64%
59.09%
FY11
12,755,970
(10,699,178)
2,056,792
770,150
(738,691)
(990,317)
(78,794)
1,019,140
103,248
(257,954)
864,434
(146,448)
16.94%
717,986
111,279
606,707
134,729
FY11
7,596,918
10,299,392
5,148,235
2,322,232
4,579,887
716,143
1,767,379
32,430,186
7,580,875
5,467,483
2,664,539
2,574,745
874,035
19,161,677
12,874,059
394,450
13,268,509
32,430,186
192.18%
14.19%
1.36%
0.47%
1.19%
58.99%
FY12
11,224,926
(9,632,600)
1,592,326
585,554
(712,741)
(876,456)
(109,928)
478,755
120,228
(392,127)
206,856
(41,387)
20.01%
165,469
12,415
153,054
148,202
FY12
6,817,928
10,114,634
3,511,626
3,129,156
5,366,421
739,584
2,717,149
32,396,498
8,504,996
389,211
3,372,196
5,715,906
1,128,564
19,110,873
12,902,654
382,971
13,285,625
32,396,498
161.98%
20.12%
3.51%
1.26%
3.26%
60.98%
FY13F
12,196,240
(9,741,963)
2,454,277
419,018
(839,147)
(1,202,407)
(154,483)
677,258
148,098
(319,806)
505,550
(71,914)
14.22%
433,636
5,990
427,646
197,603
FY13F
4,320,749
9,804,087
3,002,477
3,140,696
10,349,292
680,900
4,046,648
35,344,849
9,066,852
570,705
2,875,441
7,394,091
1,644,824
21,551,913
13,367,526
425,410
13,792,936
35,344,849
132.54%
29.00%
10.73%
4.23%
12.68%
65.53%
FY14F
17,077,608
(12,125,101)
4,952,507
287,764
(1,076,750)
(1,459,613)
(121,100)
7,535,315
53,038
(525,503)
2,110,343
(263,793)
12.50%
1,846,550
13,954
1,832,596
296,405
FY14F
8,956,130
11,610,440
4,621,682
4,904,400
10,965,024
616,948
4,649,848
46,324,472
9,618,276
8,828,020
4,257,744
5,565,069
2,089,380
30,358,489
15,534,320
431,663
15,965,983
46,324,472
138.46%
28.50%
10.83%
4.68%
13.33%
62.43%
FY15F
20,493,130
(14,652,588)
5,840,542
287,764
(1,184,425)
(1,678,555)
(121,100)
8,984,768
53,038
(630,604)
2,566,660
(333,666)
13.00%
2,232,994
13,954
2,219,040
494,008
FY15F
9,224,814
11,958,753
4,760,332
5,051,532
12,061,526
635,456
4,789,343
48,481,757
9,906,824
8,092,861
4,385,476
5,732,021
2,152,061
30,269,244
17,767,900
444,613
18,212,513
48,481,757
Source: Company, Phillip Securities (HK) Research Estimates
Page | 2 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
金風科技（
金風科技（2208HK）
）更新報告
Ratings History
Market Price
Target Price
18
16
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
14
12
10
8
6
4
Oct-14
Jul-14
Apr-14
Jan-14
Oct-13
Jul-13
Apr-13
Jan-13
Oct-12
Jul-12
Apr-12
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
2
1
2
3
4
5
PSR Rating System
Total Returns
Recom m endation Rating
> +20%
Buy
1
+5% to +20%
Accumulate
2
-5% to +5%
Neutral
3
-5% to -20%
Reduce
4
<-20%
Sell
5
Rem arks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands.
We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk rew ard profile, market
sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price
catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final
recommendation
Page | 3 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
金風科技（
金風科技（2208HK）
）更新報告
Total Return
>+20%
+5% to +20%
-5% to +5%
-5% to -20%
<-20%
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
Recommendation
Buy
Accumulate
Neutral
Reduce
Sell
Rating
1
2
3
4
5
Remarks
>20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20%upside from the current price
Trade within ± 5% from the current price
-5% to -20% downside from the current price
>20%downside from the current price
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited
to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and
speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are
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Nothing in this report shall be construed to be an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security. Any decision to purchase securities mentioned in
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Analyst Disclosure: Neither the analyst(s) preparing this report nor his associate has any financial interest in or serves as an officer of the listed corporation
covered in this report.
Firm’s Disclosure: Phillip Securities does not have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation covered in this report nor any financial
interest of 1% or more of the market capitalization in the listed corporation. In addition, no executive staff of Phillip Securities serves as an officer of the listed
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responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. PSHK (or its affiliates or employees) may have positions in relevant
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©
2015 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited
Page | 4 | PHILLISECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH
Xinjiang GoldWind Updated report
Contact Information (Regional Member Companies)
SINGAPORE
Phillip Securities Pte Ltd
250 North Bridge Road, #06-00 Raffles City Tower,
Singapore 179101
Tel : (65) 6533 6001 Fax: (65) 6535 3834
www.phillip.com.sg
MALAYSIA
Phillip Capital Management Sdn Bhd
B-3-6 Block B Level 3, Megan Avenue II,
No. 12, Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, 50450 Kuala Lumpur
Tel (60) 3 2162 8841 Fax (60) 3 2166 5099
www.poems.com.my
JAPAN
Phillip Securities Japan, Ltd
4-2 Nihonbashi Kabutocho, Chuo-ku
Tokyo 103-0026
Tel: (81) 3 3666 2101 Fax: (81) 3 3664 0141
www.phillip.co.jp
INDONESIA
PT Phillip Securities Indonesia
ANZ Tower Level 23B, Jl Jend Sudirman Kav 33A,
Jakarta 10220, Indonesia
Tel (62) 21 5790 0800 Fax: (62) 21 5790 0809
www.phillip.co.id
CHINA
Phillip Financial Advisory (Shanghai) Co. Ltd.
No 436 Heng Feng Road, Green Tech Tower Unit 604
Shanghai 200 070
Tel (86) 21 5169 9400 Fax: (86) 21 6091 1155
www.phillip.com.cn
INDIA
PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited
No. 1, 18th Floor, Urmi Estate, 95 Ganpatrao Kadam Marg,
Lower Parel West, Mumbai 400013
Tel: (9122) 2300 2999 Fax: (9122) 6667 9955
www.phillipcapital.in
THAILAND
Phillip Securities (Thailand) Public Co. Ltd.
15th Floor, Vorawat Building, 849 Silom Road,
Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok 10500 Thailand
Tel (66) 2 2268 0999 Fax: (66) 2 2268 0921
www.phillip.co.th
FRANCE
King & Shaxson Capital Ltd.
3rd Floor, 35 Rue de la Bienfaisance
75008 Paris France
Tel (33) 1 4563 3100 Fax : (33) 1 4563 6017
www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED KINGDOM
King & Shaxson Ltd.
6th Floor, Candlewick House, 120 Cannon Street
London, EC4N 6AS
Tel (44) 20 7929 5300 Fax: (44) 20 7283 6835
www.kingandshaxson.com
UNITED STATES
Phillip Futures Inc.
141 W Jackson Blvd Ste 3050
The Chicago Board of Trade Building
Chicago, IL 60604 USA
Tel (1) 312 356 9000 Fax: (1) 312 356 9005
AUSTRALIA
PhillipCapital Australia
Level 12, 15 William Street,
Melbourne, Victoria 3000, Australia
Tel: (61) 3 9618 8238 Fax: (61) 3 9200 2277
www.phillipcapital.com.au
SRI LANKA
Asha Phillip Securities Limited
Level 4, Millennium House, 46/58 Navam Mawatha,
Colombo 2, Sri Lanka
Tel: (94) 11 2429 100 Fax: (94) 11 2429 199
www.ashaphillip.net/home.htm
HONG KONG
Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd
11/F United Centre 95 Queensway Hong Kong
Tel (852) 2277 6600 Fax: (852) 2868 5307
www.phillip.com.hk
PHILLIP SECURITIES (HK) RESEARCH | 5 | P a g e