MACHAKOS COUNTY GOVERNMENT MEDIUM TERM COUNTY FISCAL STRATEGY PAPER “DEVELOPING A SUSTAINABLE SOCIAL ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR PROSPERITY IN MACHAKOS COUNTY”. FEBRUARY 2015 Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................................. ii Legal Basis for the Preparation of the County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) ....................... iv Outline of the 2015 County Fiscal Strategy Paper ..................................................................... 6 I. Developing a Socio Economic Growth for Prosperity ........................................................ 7 Overview .............................................................................................................7 II. Strategic Objectives and Policy Priorities ........................................................................... 8 III. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook ...................................................................15 County Economic Environment ........................................................................16 IV. FY 2014/2015 Budget Execution .........................................................................................17 V. Fiscal Framework and Budget Framework for FY 2015/16 .............................................22 Budget Framework FY 2015/16 .......................................................................22 Revenues…………………………………………………………………22 Expenditures……………………………………………………………..23 Recurrent Expenditure ...................................................................................... 24 Development Expenditures ...............................................................................24 Risks to the 2015/2016 Budget Framework...................................................... 25 VI. CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................................27 Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page ii Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page iii Legal Basis for the Preparation of the County Fiscal Strategy Paper (CFSP) The Public Finance Management Act 2012, requires the county treasury to prepare a Fiscal Strategy Paper , setting out broad strategic priorities and policy goals necessary in achieving county development agenda. The strategies and the goals should be aligned to the national objectives as spelt out in the budget policy statement. The Act 2012 further requires to include in the paper, the outlook with respect to county expenditures, revenues and borrowing over the medium term and which together with the priorities should be submitted to the County Executive Committee for approval and further submit the same to the County Assembly for adoption. The paper has taken into account the views of the County Budget and economic Forum. In finalizing the fiscal paper, the County Treasury shall seek and take into account the views of the public and those of the Commission on Revenue Allocation and other interested groups or persons. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page iv The Fiscal Strategy Paper and the Fiscal Responsibility Principles Inorder to ensure prudency and transparency in management of resources, the County Treasury shall be guided by the fiscal re4sponsiblities as spelt outi the PFM Act 2012. Specifically; i. Over the medium term, a minimum of 30 percent of the County budget shall be allocated to development expenditure ii. The County Government’s expenditure on wages and benefits for county public officers shall not exceed thirty five(35) percentage of the County revenue. iii. Upon approval of the borrowing framework by Parliament ,over the medium term, the county government’s borrowings shall be used only for the purpose of financing development expenditure and not for recurrent expenditure.Short term borrowing shall be for purposes of cash management. iv. Public debt and obligations shall be maintained at a sustainable level as approved by the county assembly v. Fiscal risks shall be managed prudently vi. A reasonable degree of predictability with respect to the level of tax rates and tax bases shall be maintained, taking into account any tax reforms that may be made in the future. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page v Outline of the 2015 County Fiscal Strategy Paper The report is structured into three sections as follows; 1. Section I which outlines the county strategic objectives and gives the information on various programmes that the County is implementing to achieve her objectives. 2. Section II outlines the economic context in which the 205/16 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) Budget is prepared. It also provides an overview of recent economic development and macro-economic outlook covering the national and county levels. 3. Section III outlines the fiscal framework that supports growth over medium term while improving revenue sources as well as containing total expenditure. It also provides the resource envelope and proposed spending priorities for the FY 2015/16 MTEF budget and medium term. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 1 I. Developing a Socio Economic Growth for Prosperity Overview 4. The 2015 CFSP County is the second to be prepared by the County Government in the advent of devolution ushered by the Constitution of Kenya 2010. The CFSP articulates various policies and strategies the county is implementing to address the socio economic and development challenges affecting the County. 5. The policies proposed herein are informed by challenges identified through various public participation forums and include; i. Poverty reduction ii. Unemployment iii. Access to quality health services iv. Access to clean water v. Youth and women empowerment vi. Improved infrastructure among others 6. The proposed policies and strategic priorities seek to address these challenges and include; i. Provision of clean accessible water to all households by 2017 ii. Provision of accessible and quality health care services iii. Creating a conducive business environment for income generation, employment and wealth creation iv. Ensuring food security v. Transport and infrastructure development vi. Provision of accessible and affordable energy Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 7 7. The programmes and projects that will be funded in the Budget for FY 2015/16 and the medium term and outlined in this CFSP in the above stated areas rides on the priorities outlined in the CIDP and the Second Medium Term Plan of Vision of 2030. The implementation of theses priority programmes and projects is expected increase efficiency and productivity in the economy and in turn sustain and accelerate the economic gains achieved in the county. II. Strategic Objectives and Policy Priorities 8. The CFSP 2015 outlines the priority economic policies as well as specific expenditure programmes to be implemented under medium term in order to achieve County development goal. These policies target the following areas; I. Provision of accessible and quality Health services 9. The County shall continue to implement a comprehensive health strategy to ensure access to quality health care for all through provision of quality, efficient and affordable health care services. A number of strategies have been initiated in 2014/15 and will continue in 2015/16. These strategies are aimed at reducing health inequalities and reverse the downward trend in health related outcome 10. Some of the strategies initiated in FY 2014/15 include; provision of an ambulance in every location , well equipped and placed at strategic places as per emergency response system and construction of Community Hospitals which is ongoing in all wards. The objective is to ensure the County meets WHO standards of a hospital in every 5 kilometres. 11. In FY 2015/16, the county will implement the following programmes Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 8 i. Equipping all the community hospitals with x-ray equipments, mini theatre , maternity and inpatient admission wards. ii. Provision of more health facilities by expanding Matuu Level 4 hospital and construction of a Level 4 hospital in AthiRiver iii. Automating and installing CCTV at Level 5 hospital inorder to improve service delivery. 12. The County will also provide incentive to health works to ensure they offer quality services to the patients through i. Provision of free housing by constructing doctors and nurses quarters ii. Free transport to the place of work iii. International exchange program II. Investing in transport and infrastructure development 13. Developed infrastructure is a key pre-requisite to sustained economic development due to the linkages it provides to all other sectors in the economy. The county shall therefore continue to invest in the expansion of raod network with the objective of of creating a conducive environment and provide a link to ther sectors notably the Health, Tourism and trade sectors. 14. The county road network has improved in the last one and half years through the rehabilitation of existing roads and construction of new ones. The Government will continue to invest in expansion of road network to open up rural areas that will lead to ease movement of goods and human capital. This will be done through provision and maintenance of quality infrastructure, transport and other public works so as to promote socio economic development. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 9 15. In FY 2015/16 and over the medium term, the county will implement the following projets; i. Construction an maintenance of quality roads. A total of 17(seventeen ) major county roads will be tarmacked across the county ii. Developing and maintaining government buildings and other public works iii. Facilitation and provision of adequate , efficient and affordable transport system iv. Maintenance of all county vehicles, plant and equipment and fleet management. III. Creating a conducive business environment 16. Investment and trade are key drivers of economic growth given their potential for wealth and employment creation as well as poverty reduction. 17. The County will endevour to ensure a sustainable and vibrant business and investment environment and create an enabling environment for investment. This will be achieved through provision of infrastructure to the Machakos city. The Part Development Plan (PCP) for the construction of the new city has been approved and gazetted. It is estimated that a minimum of 100 factories will be developed, 200 construction sites and over 1000 new economic activities will be generated in Machakos County in 2015/16, resulting in immense employment opportunities for the |County’s unemployed youth. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 10 18. Construction of market shades and toilets is ongoing and will be continued in FY 2015/16. This will ensure better working environment for traders and customers. In order to further support growth of business, starting 2015/16 the County will tarmac roads and pave sidewalks in the major urban,peri urban and also small towns. 19. The County will also ensure security for her people and provide a conducive environment for investment. This will be achieved through the ongoing comprehensive security program. In 2013/14 through 2014/15 the County initiated a number of programs including provision of patrol security vehicles and installation of CCTV. In 2015/16 the County will, in collaboration with the National Government provide housing units and stations to the police. 20. The County will also operationalize the County Law Office for legal advisory services for effective implementation of the devolved function. IV. Ensuring Food Security 21. Agriculture is the main economic stay in the county, however over years the sector has faced low productivity due to over reliance on rain fed agriculture, use of inappropriate technology, inaccessible farm inputs and weak extension services. Majority of the population in Machakos County especially those in the rural areas are still food insecure and live in absolute poverty. Investing in this sector will lead to increased productivity, increased food supply, reduce food related prices and bring down cost of living, create employment and create overall rural development. 22. The County will continue investing in this sector through subsidy system, increase cultivated land, provision of tractors, free seed,subsidized fertilizer and construction of silos. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 11 23. Further the government will put structures in place to tap the potential of livestock, dairy and poultry farming. This will be through upgrading the local breeds and commercialization of the by-products in this sector. 24. Other initiative in this sector include extension services, soil concervation, disease control, farm inputs subsidies and mechanisms to mve away from rain fed agriculture. V. Investing in accessible and affordable energy 25. To sustain economic growth in the county there is need to expand investment in accessible and affordable energy supply. Over the medium term the County Government has expanded rural electrification program in all wards, market centers, primary and secondary schools, boreholes, coffee factories, hospitals and other government institutions. VI. Ensure efficient service delivery to the public 26. In order to ensure efficient service delivery, the County will undertake a number of reforms. These will include: 1. Customer management through customer management system 2. Implementation of a Human Resource Information Management system 3. Capacity building 4. Improve staff productivity through incentives such as a. provision of mortgage and car loans to the County Staff b. Provision of voluntary early retirement package with an objective of cutting down the wage bill 5. Provision of Integrated Communication system Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 12 6. Implementation of pension and gratuity schemes 27. Other initiatives include: i. Manage solid/liquid waste and sanitation ii. Decentralize devolved functions by construction of Sub county and ward offices iii. Control and co-ordinate urban development and planning and provision of fire fighting and disaster management services iv. Professionalize the County inspectorate services through intensive training by Kenya Police Services v. Designing a professional command structure vi. Provision of uniforms, communication and other equipment VII. Ensure Provision of quality social services 28. The objective of the County is to provide quality services in early childhood development and education, village polytechnic, youth training and development and social support. 29. This will be achieved through the following initiatives: 1. Development of ECD infrastructure 2. Development and equipping of youth clinics 3. Collaboration with the National Government on performance improvement program in primary and secondary levels 4. Construction of 10 modern youth polytechnics 5. Promotion of talent by establishing recording studios 6. Set up Machakos Innovation Centre Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 13 VIII. Promotion of Domestic Tourism Sports and Culture 30. The County shall ensure competitiveness and attraction of both domestic and international visitors through i. creating recreational facilities like parks ii. marketing of domestic tourism, tourism product diversification and standardization, iii. improve tourism infrastructure, cultural development, sports development, infrastructure development for production of film, art and music. 31. Improvement in sports will be through County tournament and sports and construction of 2 new stadia at the sub counties. 32. These initiatives will ensure the County promoted sustainable tourism, culture and sports for development and prosperity of the County. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 14 III. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 33. This section highlights the recent economic developments at the global, national and county level and the impact that this occurrences have had on the county economic development. 34. The county has established basic foundation for economic growth and it is considered the number one County with a bright economic prospects. However, the county economy remains vulnerable to external shocks especially the unfavorable weather conditions that have affected agricultural productivity due to over reliance in rain fed agriculture. 35. The uneven and sluggish global recovery affecting the national economy will have a spillover effect on the County economy. World economic output is expected to strengthen gradually from 3.3 percent growth in 2014 to 3.8 percent in 2015, driven mainly by growth in advanced economies. Despite deceleration in 2014, growth in emerging markets and developing economies is projected to increase modestly in 2015, supported by stronger domestic demand and some recovery in global demand. 36. The national economy growth prospects remain strong, inflation has been contained at single digit with interest rates trending downwards, exchange rates are broadly stable and public debt remains sustainable. This has been as a result of sound macroeconomic management that will help sustain economic development at the County level. 37. Machakos County is not isolated from the effect of global and national economic issues that do arise since its performance depends highly on the country’s economic performance and have either a negative or positive impact. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 15 County Economic Environment 38. Although the county economic environment was slightly stable , growth in the first half of 2014 was slower than expected which was contributed to a number of factors; i. Erratic weather patterns that resulted in depressed agricultural output both at the National and County level. This is largely because the agricultural sector is the main driver of the county’s economy and with 2015 painting a picture of looming drought, the county is likely to record poor economic performance and depressed livelihood. ii. Insecurity concerns, in the recent time the country has been experiencing major cases of insecurity which led to a deteriorated tourism sector, the second earner for the country and deceleration in the hotel industry leading to low investment. 39. Low revenue inflow has a negative correlation to the economic activities at the county resulting to slow economic growth. 40. In the first quarter of the 2014/2015 financial year, the Kenya Shillings registered slight fluctuations against the US dollar, the Euro as well as the Sterling Pound and this could be attributed to the appreciative effect of the proceeds of the Eurobond as well as the depreciative effect of the declining earnings from tourism. 41. Despite the above misgivings, a report by the KNBS shows that the economy remained resilient especially toward the end of 2014. This was mainly attributed to a strong expansion of the finance and insurance sector that grew by 9.9 percent up from a revised growth of 8.3 percent in a Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 16 similar period of 2013. The performance of the finance and insurance sector continued to be driven by financial innovations, strong performance of the construction, retail and information and communication. 42. Going forward, there is need to restore and safeguard county economic stability which will support growth and eventually reduce unemployment and poverty. 43. The County will therefore put in place legislation and mechanism that will enhance revenue collection, minimize or eradicate wastage expenditures and manage the wage bill. IV. FY 2014/2015 Budget Execution 44. This section provides an overview of the performance of the budget for the Financial Year 2014/2015 as well as emerging challenges. Approved Budget FY 2014/15 45. The budget approved by the County Assembly amounts to Kshs. 8.9 Billion out of which Kshs. 4.9 Billion relates to recurrent expenditures and Kshs. 3.98 Billion for development expenditures. This translates to 55 per cent and 45 per cent of the total budget respectively. 46. Out of the recurrent expenditure of Kshs 4.9 Billion, Ksh. 2.5 Billion is to cater for wages and salaries, equivalent to 28.3% of the total budget and Kshs. 2.4 Billion for operations and maintenance. This is illustrated in table 1 below; Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 17 Table 1 : Summary of approved budget 2014/15 (amount in Ksh) Description Approved Budget Expenditures Development 3,988,032,155 Recurrent of which; Salaries and wages 2,515,203,185 Other recurrent 2,395,943,652 Total Recurrent Total Expenditures 4,911,146,837 8,899,178,992 Revenue Allocation from National Government 6,200,000,000 County Own Revenue 2,700,000,000 Total Revenue 8,900,000,000 Performance of the FY 2014/15 Budget Expenditures 47. As at end of December 2014, which is the 1st half of the budget implementation cycle, total expenditures including commitments amounts to Kshs 4.9 Billion which translates to 55 percent of the total expenditures.(excluding commitments, actual expenditures amount to kshs. 3.5 billion) Out of this, Kshs 2.8 Billion relates to recurrent expenditures and Kshs 2.3 Billion development expenditures. This translates to 58 per cent of total recurrent expenditures and 54 percent of total development expenditures as summarized in table two below. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 18 Table 2 : Expenditure as at December, 2014 (amount in Kshs). Approved Description Budget Actual Expenditure Expenditures Development 3,988,032,155 2,300,295,936 Salaries and wages 2,515,203,185 2,061,642,705 Other recurrent 2,395,943,652 695,615,547 Total Recurrent 4,911,146,837 8,899,178,992 2,757,258,252 Recurrent : Total 3,460,554,188 Revenues 48. The total expenditures amounting to Kshs. 8.9 Billion were to be financed from two sources of Revenue namely ; i. Allocation from National Government equitable share – Kshs. 6.2 Billion ii. County own revenue – Kshs. 2.7 Billion 49. To date the County has received a total of Ksh.3.4 Billion comprising of Kshs. 2.8 Billion from the National Government and Kshs. 0.6 Billion from the County own revenue. This translates to 90 percent and 46 percent of the first half revenue projection for National Government and County Government respectively. This is illustrated in Table 3 below. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 19 Budget Execution 50. In the cause of executing the FY 2013/14 budget, a number of challenges were experienced. Notably was the decision by the National Government to have the County Government pay for the devolved staff midstream the execution of the budget. This expenditure was not budgeted for during the budget preparation process. The result was additional expenditures of over Kshs. 1 Billion with health workers taking over Kshs. 800 Million. The impact was worsened with the National Government’s further decision to withhold the funds paid on behalf of the County to pay the devolved workers amounting to over Kshs. 500 Million. Further an amount of over Kshs. 400 Million budget for donor projected was never availed to the County. 51. The above decisions by the National Government and in addition to the underperformance of County Revenue created a financing gap of over Kshs. 1.2 Billion. This gap translated to pending bills since the same had been budgeted and implementation of the projects was underway when the decisions were communicated. The effect of this was accumulation of arrears in FY 2014/15 amounting to 2.3 Billion. Revenue 52. Total Revenue approved for FY 2014/15 amount to Ksh. 6.2 Billion which comprise of Ksh. 5.8 Billion non conditional allocation and Ksh. 0.4 Billion conditional allocation. The conditional allocation comprise of Ksh 157 million to fund level 5 hospital expenditures and Ksh. 243 million Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 20 donor financing to be channeled through National government ministries except Ksh. 24 million Danida funding for health facility improvement. 53. As at the end of December 2014, Ksh. 109 Million had been disbursed for funding health sector. No funds have been received through the national government line ministries and therefore, the certainty of their release may not be confirmed. 54. It is projected that the National Government funding will be released as per approved County Allocation of Revenue Act, 2014. 55. The performance for first half of the financial year indicates an underperformance of ksh 600 million. All effort will be applied to recover this shortfall and ensure the projected revenue for the remainder of the FY is achieved. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 21 V. Fiscal Framework and Budget Framework for FY 2015/16 56. This section will highlight the projections for the County revenue, recurrent and development expenditure. It will also look at the underlying risks, structural measures and strategic interventions. 57. The County government is committed to fiscal consolidation while ensuring that resources are availed for development in order to positively impact on productive sector growth and overall economic growth. In this regard, the county government is committed to reducing the recurrent expenditures to devote more funds to development. Reforms in the expenditure management and revenue administration will be implemented to reduce wastages and increase revenues collection and hence create fiscal space for spending on development programmes within the budget. Budget Framework FY 2015/16 58. The 2015/16 budget framework is set against background of the medium term fiscal policy of the national and the county government, the strategic plan as outlined in the 2015 BPS and County Government broad policies as domesticated in the County through the CIDP and departmental strategies and programmes. Revenues 59. The County government has two sources of revenue; the equitable share from the national government in accordance with Article 203 (2) of the Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 22 Constitution. The county may also receive conditional or unconditional grants from national government and development partners as it contained in Article 202 (2) of the Constitution. 60. The County is also allowed to raise its own revenues through imposition of various taxes as well as user fees and charges authorized and approved by the County Assembly. This will be the internal sources of revenue. 61. During the FY year 2015/16 the county own revenue is projected at Ksh 2.3 Billion and equitable share from the national government of Ksh 6.5 Billion 62. As measure of increasing its revenue base from internal sources, the county government will pursue the following strategies i. complete automation of revenue collection by fully operationasing the revenue management system. ii. Increase the revenue base by ensuring that all taxes and fees approved for collection are brought to the revenue base. iii. Allocate sufficient financial and human resource for tax collection to ensure all areas within the counties are well covered. iv. Crack down all revenue cartels in the County. v. Capacity building of revenue collectors and enforcement officers. vi. Research on revenue potential. Expenditures 63. Due to the tight fiscal framework involved in budget preparation, ministries /departments will be tasked with rationalizing and prioritizing their expenditures and programmes for the Financial Year 2015/2016 to focus on Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 23 the strategic interventions as captured in the CIDP, BPS as well as the CFSP. To this regard therefore, the expenditures will have to be geared towards promotion of service delivery that supports development, economic growth as well as transformation of the County. Recurrent Expenditure 64. The recurrent expenditures for the Financial Year 2015/2016 are projected to be Ksh 4.5 billion down from Ksh 4.9 Billion in 2014/2015, with Personnel Emoluments estimated at Ksh 3.0 billion. The recurrent expendtires will be scaled downwards to provide savings to support development. The reduction will be achieved through various austerity measures on low priority expenditures. The recurrent expenditures will be utilised to fund public service reforms; capacity building, early retirement and provision of benefits such as medical scheme, public participation and operationalization of the County law office. Development Expenditures 65. To achieve the county strategic objectives Ksh. 4.3 billion is projected to be spent towards implementation of development programs for the Financial Year 2015/2016 up from Ksh 3.98 Billion in the Financial Year 2014/2015. 66. Increased allocation will towards priority programmes; i. Provision of piped water to every household ii. Improve access to quality health care Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 24 iii. Urban development iv. Improved transport and county infrastructure v. Public Adminstration vi. Provision of quality Early Childhood education vii. Youth empowerment viii. Tourism promotion ix. Revenue enhancement x. Human resource management and xi. Security Risks to the 2015/2016 Budget Framework 67. The realization of development goals for the County will not be without risks and challenges. This section highlights the possible risks and challenges and respective recommendations 68. The high wage bill will be a major challenge in the implementation of the budget. The county therefore will put in place measures aimed at staff rationalization to achieve a lean and sustainable wage bill. 69. Revenue performance may also pose a potential risk. The county will continually put up solid structures geared towards sealing loop holes and expanding revenue base. Automation of revenue collection though in place should be will also be strengthened. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 25 70. Untimely release of funds by the national government will be another challenge. This could lead to programmes for the year falling behind schedule, hence compromising on service delivery. 71. The County’s performance may also be slowed down by unreliable weather conditions. This will affect agriculture which is the main economic driver of the County. Resources therefore need to be set aside to mitigate the situation. 72. The following shall form the criteria for allocating resources i. Ongoing projects ii. Programmes prioritized by the County Integrated plan. iii. Budget ceilings allocated by Commission of Revenue Allocation iv. Equitable share of revenue allocation of the national government. v. Degree to which the programme address the strategic objectives of the county. vi. Degree to which the programme is addressing the core functions and responsibilities of the ministry vii. Cost effectiveness and sustainability of the programme. 73. The County Assembly, County Executive and other County entities will implement various programmes to achieve the county strategic objectives Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 26 VI. CONCLUSION 74. This County Fiscal Strategy Paper sets out priority programs derived from the County Integrated Development Plan for not only economic transformation but also on building a shared prosperity to be implemented in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework for 2015/16-2016/17. The implementation of these programs which is expected to sustain economic growth and improve on the livelihoods of the residents of Machakos County will require prudent financial management. Machakos County Fiscal Strategy Paper, 2015 Page 27
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