ShareKhan Pre - Market Action

9th Mar 2015- Monday
ShareKhan Pre - Market Action
Trading
Ideas:
Long/Short Ideas identified on basis of Fundamental Trigger/News/Events
Watch List:
List of stocks identified for trading with positive and negative bias for the day
News/
Updates:
Important News & Events (Both Domestic & Global) to keep you updated on all
the happenings in markets.
Index Ideas: Nifty and Bank Nifty view for the day.
Currency:
View on Currencies/ Important News and Updates
Commodity: View on Gold/ Silver/Metals
Trading Ideas
CONCOR – (CMP 1482)
FIIs/RFPIs can now invest up to 34 per cent under PIS
in Container Corporation of India Ltd.
Action to be taken: Long CONCOR
Stop loss : 1460
Target : 1510-1530
TCS – (CMP 2696)
In its pre-quarterly earnings interaction with the
analyst community, the management of (TCS) stated
that Q4FY2015E expect to be remain soft, in line with
trend seen in Q4FY14 (1.9% qoq growth).
Action to be taken: Short TCS
Stop loss : 2730
Target :2650-2620
US sanctions on Oil Companies
State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd, Indian Oil
Corp. Ltd and Oil India Ltd are among the five global
companies named by the US administration for having
energy ties with Iran, for which they can face sanctions
by America.
Action to be taken: Short ONGC (cmp 320)
Stop loss :325.50
Target :315-310
Action to be taken: Short OIL(cmp 494)
Stop loss : 501
Target :486-478
News Update
•Suzlon
Energy,
the
debt-laden
wind-turbine
manufacturer, is keen to sell its forging and foundry
company.
•REI Agro’s lenders to file CBI complaint for alleged
cheating, fund misappropriation.
•Tata, GMR, GVK among 8 in fray for Chennai Airport
•HUL has increased the prices of some of toothpaste
variants by Rs2-4 per 100/150 gm, while it has also
increase the prices of some the skin care products –
neutral for the stock
News Update
•The Reserve Bank of India has allowed banks to add the
cost of registration and stamp duty in the total cost of a
house valued at not more than 1 million rupees for
determining the maximum loan the property can
get. Positive for Banks like SBI, ICICI Bank and HDFC
Bank while negative for housing finance companies
unless NHB comes out with similar guidelines.
•One of China’s fastest-growing conglomerates has
pumped almost £100m into Thomas Cook, as it bought a
5 per cent stake in the world’s oldest travel company
yesterday.
News Update
•USFDA approves first biosimilar in US; sentimentally
positive for Dr Reddy’s Lab, Biocon, Cadila Health
•Crompton Greaves said it has received three orders from
Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL) for the supply of
four million LED (light emitting diode) lamps.
•India’s largest realty firm DLF Ltd plans to monetise
properties worth about Rs.15,000 crore under various
projects to boost its cash flow and reduce debt.
•IDBI Bank’s NSE 5% stake sale in next fiscal only
News Update
•Gulf Oil Lubricants has undertaken capacity expansion,
that includes capex in a new plant and expansion of
current allocation. With 75 per cent of its portfolio
serving the automotive sector, Gulf Oil Lubricants'
believes it has not yet tapped India’s 1,200 thousand
metric tonnes (tmt) industrial oils market. With many
industries coming up near Chennai, the company
considers South India the key to growth, in the industrial
as well as the automotive sectors.
•ORISSA GOVT rejects OMDC 3 Minning leases. Negative
for OMDC
FTSE Rebalancing
FTSE adds nine, but excludes four Indian firms to key
Asia-Pac index (effective from March 20, 2015)
Those included: Bosch, Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, Yes
Bank, Eicher Motors, Motherson Sumi Systems, Zee
Entertainment Enterprises, Godrej Consumer Products,
Shree Cements and Cadila Healthcare.
Those excluded: NHPC, Reliance Communications,
Reliance Power and Jindal Steel & Power
Watch List
Stocks With +ve Bias
CMP
Stocks With -ve Bias
CMP
DIVI’S LAB
1787
ACC
1710
DABUR
268
IGL
435
REC
353
CAIRN
241
Stock for
Investment
Stocks for Investment
Stocks
CMP
L&T
1825
ABIRLANUVO
1688
Tata Motor - DVR
355
INFY
2251
ULTRATECH
3189
Actionable Ideas
Actionable View point – Buy Goodluck Steel
Tubes limited (CMP 81)
•Good Luck Steel Tubes Ltd (GLSTL), a domestic manufacturer of
steel tubes, forgings and structured products, is reaping the benefits
of moving up the value chain and expanding its reach to newer
industries like auto, railways and power (thermal and solar) among
others
•Given its improving product portfolio and customer base, the
company has set out on a phased expansion in all the three business
segments and is positioning itself for the pick-up in demand resulting
a revival in the economy. It has already doubled its capacity in the
auto tubes segment and the next phase of expansion is coming up in
the metal structure division (transmission towers, boiler support and
solar support structures) with a cumulative investment of close to
Rs125 crore. The expansion of its forging unit is scheduled for
commissioning in the first half of 2016.
Actionable View point – Buy Goodluck Steel
Tubes limited (CMP 81)
After a muted financial performance over the recent years (OPM of
6.5-7.5% and negative earnings growth during FY2012-14), GLSTL is
expected to register revenues and earnings CAGR of 15% and 39%
respectively over FY2014- 17. Further, its OPM is expected to expand
by 150-200 BPS (by FY2017) due to focus on high-margin products.
At the current market price, the stock is trading at an attractive
multiple of 3.2x its FY2017E EBITDA. We expect a 20-25% upside
from the current levels, valuing the stock at 4.5x its FY2017E EBITDA
(broadly in line with three years’ average EV/EBITDA of 4.8x).
Key risk: Delay in pick-up in industrial cycle could put severe pressure
on the balance sheet as the debt/equity ratio would balloon to 1.8:1
on the back of its expansion plans. Also, the margins are susceptible
to volatility in line with sharp movements in raw material prices and
consequently would affect its financial performance
Global Update
Global Indices and news
•A robust US jobs report raised concern
in markets that the Federal Reserve
may raise interest rates sooner than
previously thought, hammering U.S.
stock and bond prices on Friday.
•The US Labour Department said
employers added 295,000 workers in
February, beating a forecast of
240,000. It was the longest run of
200,000-plus increases since 1994. The
jobless rate dropped to 5.5 percent
from 5.7 percent in January.
•US interest rates futures suggested
traders had placed more bets the Fed
might raise rates this summer, but they
have not fully priced in such a move
until late 2015. No major data to be
announce in US markets today.
Index
Close
Prev
Close
Change
%
Change
Dow
Jones
17857
18136
-279
-1.54%
S&P
500
2071
2101
-30
-1.42%
FTSE
6912
6961
-49
-0.71%
Index View
Technical view – Nifty – 8937
For today’s trading sessions we expect nifty to
trade with Negative bias
Short Term Target for Nifty is 8600
Crucial Resistance area for Nifty is 9062
Intraday levels:
Support 8916 - 8790
All levels are spot levels
Resistance 9017 – 9063
Technical view Bank Nifty- 19748
For today’s trading sessions we expect Bank
Nifty to trade with Negative bias
Crucial Resistance for Bank Nifty is at 20176
Intraday levels:
Support 19390 – 19148
All levels are spot levels
Resistance 20100 – 20300
Derivative Update
Future’s Activity
Nifty
Nifty CoC
OI
PCR(OI)
INDIA VIX
Current Previous % change
8988.75 8956.35 0.36%
9.92%
6.27% 58.27%
27862025 28639700 -2.72%
0.98
0.96
2.08%
-5.00%
14.44
15.20
Around 7.78 lakh shares were reduced in OI.
Option’s Activity
Strike
9000 C
9100 C
9200 C
Most active index call option
Curr. IV
Curr. OI % Chg. OI % Chg. IV
13.17%
4316150
6.69%
-4.40%
12.80%
3941175
7.32%
-5.13%
12.60%
4233275
4.28%
0.00%
Strike
8900 P
8800 P
8700 P
Most active index Put option
Curr. IV
Curr. OI % Chg. OI % Chg. IV
13.73%
2476325 28.18%
-6.08%
14.38%
4055200
0.59%
-6.29%
14.93%
3412500 10.37%
-6.25%
9000-9100-9200 CE has added marginal no of shares in OI whereas PE
8900-8800-8700 strike has added huge no of shares in OI in Thursday’s
trade.
Securities in Ban For Trade Date 09-Mar-2015
1. UNITECH
FII :
INDEX FUTURES
INDEX OPTIONS
STOCK FUTURES
STOCK OPTIONS
+76.05
-0.20
-153.59
+2.75
5-DAY VWAP
Lower Range
9000
8900
SGX Nifty -97.00 points at 8892.00 (MAR Fut)
Higher
Range
9000
Currency Update
Technical Overview
Product
Prvs
Close
Trend
Action
USDINR
62.47
Bullish
Buy
62
62.76
EURINR
69.04
Bullish
Buy
68.34
69.84
GBPINR
95.27
Bullish
Buy
94.62
95.82
JPYINR
51.97
Bullish
Buy
51.40
52.42
Support Resistance
Commodity Update
Commodity Technical Overview
Previous
Product
Close
Trend
Action Support Resistance
GOLD
26012
Range Bound
Sell
25835
26337
SILVER
35972
Range Bound
Sell
35769
36318
CRUDE
3138
Sideways
Buy
3103
3191
COPPER
366
Sideways
Buy
364.55
368.35
Thank You !
Disclaimer
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