R B C W E A LT H M A N A G E M E N T GLOBAL INSIGHT W E E K L Y MARCH 6, 2015 A C LO S E R LO O K Low Inflation of Low Concern Tom Garretson – Minneapolis Low inflation levels—and in some cases, negative inflation rates—continue to hover over markets, but as the risk of outright deflation remains low, so does the risk of excessive inflation. This is actually good news for fixed income investors. U.S. consumer prices recently posted the first annual decline since the financial crisis and only the second negative reading since the 1950s (see chart). The eurozone, Japan, and China have seen similar price activity—the overall trend was up for many decades, but inflation rates have been quite low or negative recently. Because prices normally rise, inflation is a familiar concept for many. Deflation and disinflation may be less so. Deflation is generally defined as a sustained period of broadbased annual price declines that can cause consumers to delay purchases, on expectations that future prices will be lower. This in turn leads to further prices declines—a vicious cycle that central banks and governments seek to avoid at all costs because it can crater the economy and asset prices. Disinflation is a decrease in the rate of inflation. Prices still rise, but not as much. It is often exacerbated by pricing pressure in one sector, which is what some countries are witnessing now from the collapse in global energy prices. Annual Change in U.S. Consumer Prices Since 1914 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 1914 +1.6% -0.1% Consumer Price Index Core Consumer Price Index: Ex-Food & Energy 1934 1954 1974 1994 2014 Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg M A R K ET P U L S E Room to Breathe 3 Why we still like U.S. financials as a portfolio stalwart If the objective of many governments and central banks is price stability, why don’t they target 0% inflation? Why is 0% inflation so unwelcomed? 3 Surprises at Canada’s wireless spectrum auction 4 ECB upbeat on growth, but warns against complacency By targeting a higher rate, such as 2%, it gives officials room to implement monetary policy, anchors expectations of price growth in the minds of consumers and producers, and creates 4 China’s State Council to step up fiscal policy support Click here for authors’ contact information. Priced as of 3/6/15 market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in USD unless otherwise noted. For Important and Required Non-U.S. Analyst Disclosures, see page 6. a “cushion” during recessionary periods. If prices were growing at 0%, a recessionary period could easily drive prices into a deflationary spiral. But if price growth has been above zero, then central banks will have room to ease policy and lower interest rates, and potentially avoid deflationary cycles, against which they have few tools and little experience fighting. will succeed in this effort, and it will show up in the numbers as energy prices stabilize and then improve. At the same time, risk of excessive inflation that would erode fixed income returns still seems a long way off as the path toward inflation targets will likely be a multiyear process. Bond Investors Rejoice Current Inflation Levels Relative to Inflation Objectives For fixed income investors, this is a win-win scenario. Central bankers will remain laser-focused on avoiding outright deflation that could harm the global economy. We think they U.S. Japan U.K. Inflation Target Eurozone China While the Fed is on the cusp of tightening monetary policy, many global central banks, including China, Japan, and Europe, are still easing, and are likely to do so until price objectives are met. Core CPI Canada In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has missed its 2% inflation target for 46 of the past 49 months. Chinese producer prices, or the cost of goods manufactured there, have been negative since 2012. Add to that, the government recently lowered its GDP growth and inflation targets, both of which should pressure global prices lower. CPI 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Australia As the chart shows, nearly all developed nations are missing inflation objectives, and in many cases, have been for some time. Note: Inflation targets represent mid-range of either the Central Bank’s or Government’s objective. Japan data adjusted for sales tax hike. Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Central Bank Data WWHHATAT’ S’ SMMOOV VI NI NGGMMA AR RK KETETS S Deals, Deals, and More Deals Merger and acquisition (M&A) deals continue to move segments of the equity market. During the week, Netherlands-based NXP Semiconductors agreed to acquire U.S.-based Freescale in order to make a bigger push into the burgeoning global automotive semiconductor industry. In health care, pharmaceutical company AbbVie said it will buy biotech firm Pharmacyclics for its blood cancer treatment, which could be a blockbuster. Global M&A volume in semiconductors, software, and pharmaceuticals is up 90%–125% in the past three months on a year-over-year basis. It’s also been solid in the last six months. But biotech is nearly off the charts with 3-month global activity running 626% higher than the previous year, and even stronger in the U.S. and Asia (see chart). We believe these industries will continue to be active due to reasonable valuations, solid growth prospects, and much sought-after innovations by acquirers. The energy sector is also likely to see heightened deal activity this year due to the shakeout caused by the crude oil collapse. Biotech M&A Volume Has Spiked Recently 3-month Industry Merger & Acquisition Volume Growth by Region (% change y/y) 100%+ y/y M&A volume growth in most software, semi, and pharma segments is actually a healthy rate. But, it looks puny compared to the surge in biotech volume, which is nearly off the charts. Global U.S. Europe 626 Asia Pacific 154 125 106 120 125 105 103 90 0 0 -7 Software 826 780 -56 -22 Semiconductors Pharmaceuticals Biotech Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg; data from 12/1/14 – 3/5/15 Cheap money, and in some cases nearly free money, is boosting M&A volume as major central banks maintain ultra-low interest rate policies. This reinforces our positive stance on global equities. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY March 6, 2015 2 ■ ■ ■ ■ On March 11, the Fed will authorize banks’ plans for share buybacks and dividend payments. RBC Capital Markets’ analysts believe most will be approved, but a few banks may see their proposals curtailed. We continue to recommend investors hold an overweight position in U.S. financials. Bank stocks still appear reasonably valued, and loan growth should improve as the economy strengthens. They should perform well ahead of the first rate hike and in the early stages of the Fed’s tightening cycle as net interest margins finally rise. Ultralow rates have been a lead weight on banks’ profits. Economic data was mixed during the week. On the plus side, the U.S. created far more jobs in February than economists had expected (295,000 nonfarm payrolls vs. 235,000 consensus forecast), which brought the four-month total to an impressive 1.29 million jobs. But wage growth fell shy of expectations again (0.1% m/m, 2.0% y/y), and the labor participation rate dipped to 62.8%. The manufacturing sector lost more momentum as the ISM measure fell to 52.9 in February from 53.5. Many of the survey’s participants said the prolonged West Coast port strike negatively affected volumes. Because the port disruptions have ended, RBC Capital Markets’ chief U.S. economist believes manufacturing activity will be much more robust in coming months. CANADA Patrick McAllister & Eric Lafortune – Toronto ■ The S&P/TSX Composite declined modestly as the materials sector lagged. Shares in gold producers retreated sharply as the price of bullion fell. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY 2015 Consensus Earnings Growth Forecasts 16.1% 11.4% 7.6% 6.9% 6.2% 5.2% 4.1% 2.2% 1.7% 1.2% Energy Utilities S&P 500 Cons. Staples Materials Telecom Industrials -55.0% Technology The S&P 500 fell 1.6% for the week as the market continued to consolidate February’s outsized gains. All 10 sectors traded lower. Within financials, banks and brokerages outperformed, rising 1.0% and 0.8%, respectively. The Federal Reserve’s annual stress test results showed all financial institutions examined passed the minimum capital requirements for the first time since the tests began in 2009. The U.S. financial system continues to regain strength, is adequately capitalized, and could weather an economic shock, the quantitative measures indicated. Bank of America’s results noticeably improved versus last year. There were weak spots, however, as Goldman Sachs and Zions Bancorporation barely exceeded key capital minimums. Health Care ■ Cons. Disc. Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco Financials Sector Expected to Post the Strongest Earnings Growth Financials U N I T E D S T AT E S Source - RBC Wealth Management, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S; data on 3/5/15 ■ Canadian banks finished reporting Q1 results, which generally overshot consensus expectations. The impact of depressed energy prices was muted, but we expect it will become a headwind as the year progresses. The banks continue to trade near their long-term historical earnings multiple despite analyst expectations for modest earnings growth. ■ Industry Canada announced the results of the latest wireless spectrum auction. Telus surprised by spending more than RBC Capital Markets expected, while Rogers Communications did not succeed in acquiring any new spectrum. ■ Government of Canada bond yields finished 15–24 basis points (bps) higher over the week following a neutral policy statement from the Bank of Canada (BoC) that said the “risks around the inflation profile are more balanced” since the January 21 meeting. The market had been pricing in an additional rate cut over the next six months. We think this report buys the BoC some time to assess the impact of its most recent rate cut on the economy. ■ The Canadian dollar declined by approximately CA$0.02 on Friday following a strong U.S. jobs report and weak Canadian trade figures. ■ The S&P/TSX Canadian Preferred Share Total Return Index finished up by around 0.60% on the week as a 24-bps move higher in 5-year Government of Canada bond yields has helped a number of discounted rate-reset preferred shares post price gains. March 6, 2015 3 EUROPE Frédérique Carrier & Davide Boglietti – London ■ ■ ■ ■ Further Easing by the PBoC as Lending and Deposit Rates Are Lowered 8 While the euro continued to weaken, the STOXX 600 eked out gains of 0.5% for the week. The index is approaching the technically important 480 level the market peaked at in 2000 and 2007. 7 The week’s news was dominated by the European Central Bank (ECB), which was supposed to announce details of its quantitative easing programme. The ECB argued that the anticipation of the programme has already had an effect on markets, most obviously through the euro, which has weakened more than 20% against the dollar over the past six months. Moreover, since the announcement of the programme in January, inflation expectations have started to turn around. Peripheral spreads and absolute yields continue to tighten substantially which, in combination with the pick-up in inflation expectations, has led to a substantial drop in peripheral real yields. 4 The ECB unveiled sanguine staff projections, much improved over its December scenario. It now expects 1.5% growth this year (versus the 1.0% prior expectation), 1.9% next year (prior 1.5%), and introduced a 2.1% 2017 forecast. Lower oil prices, a weaker euro in trade-weighted terms, and the effect of previous monetary policy interventions were all mentioned as the cause for optimism. Inflation expectations were also sharply increased. ECB President Mario Draghi cautioned against national governments’ complacency, urging for more fiscal and structural reforms. He stressed the QE programme would be open-ended despite the more upbeat outlook as several months are needed before the Governing Council can evaluate QE’s impact. 6 5 2 1 0 2008 GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source - RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg the dollar. RBC Capital Markets has a non-consensus call for further yuan depreciation against the dollar. ■ On balance, the rate cut is positive for Chinese bank stocks, in our view. Although it negatively impacts lending margins, it is supportive of asset quality and, therefore, bank valuations. However, while the timing of the cut was uncertain, it was expected at some juncture. Equity reaction was muted. ■ Policy flexibility in China has risen due to disinflation, although authorities have also noted the threat of deflation, a common global theme. January CPI fell below 1%—the first time since November 2009. The State Council and Premier Li Keqiang both stated that there is also a need for more fiscal support for the economy, particularly the property market, which has been weak in recent months. ■ During the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Chinese government lowered the 2015 GDP growth target to “around 7%,” as expected by the market. The upper limit for inflation was set at 3%, but this is unlikely to be tested. The target for growth in money supply (M2) is 12%, down from 13%. The fiscal budget deficit target was moved moderately higher to 2.3% of GDP from 2.1%. There were no major surprises in the targets. ■ Japanese equities reached new cycle highs again as the yen weakened to over USDJPY120. At 1,540, the TOPIX index has risen by 7.5% thus far this year and may consolidate in the short term, in our view. We maintain over overweight position in the longer term, however. Jay Roberts – Hong Kong The People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates for the second time since November. The one-year lending rate was cut by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.35%. The one-year deposit rate was lowered by 25 bps to 2.5%. This followed a recent reduction in the reserve-requirement ratio (RRR). Consensus forecasts call for further reductions in the RRR this year of 50 bps. The yuan weakened modestly against PBoC cuts lending and deposit rates by 0.25% 3 A S I A PA C I F I C ■ PBoC 1-Year Lending Rate PBoC 1-Year Deposit Rate March 6, 2015 4 M A R K ET S C O R E C A R D Data as of March 6, 2015 Equities (local currency) S&P 500 Dow Industrials (DJIA) NASDAQ Russell 2000 Level 1 Week MTD YTD 12 Mos Govt Bonds (bps chg) Yield 1 Week 10.3% U.S. 2-Yr Tsy 0.721% 10.3 10.3 2,071.26 -1.6% -1.6% 0.6% 17,856.78 -1.5% -1.5% 0.2% 8.7% U.S. 10-Yr Tsy 2.245% 25.2 4,927.37 -0.7% -0.7% 4.0% 13.2% Canada 2-Yr 0.627% 15.5 MTD YTD 12 Mos 5.7 38.0 25.2 7.4 -49.2 15.5 -38.5 -42.5 1,217.52 -1.3% -1.3% 1.1% 1.1% Canada 10-Yr 1.611% 31.0 31.0 -17.7 -89.7 S&P/TSX Comp 14,952.50 -1.9% -1.9% 2.2% 4.8% U.K. 2-Yr 0.626% 19.2 19.2 18.0 -0.6 FTSE All Share 3,728.95 -0.4% -0.4% 5.6% 2.0% U.K. 10-Yr 1.948% 15.2 15.2 19.2 -81.9 394.18 0.5% 0.5% 15.1% 16.9% Germany 2-Yr -0.207% 2.0 2.0 -10.9 -37.2 Germany 10-Yr 0.393% 6.5 6.5 -14.8 -125.4 STOXX Europe 600 German DAX 11,550.97 1.3% 1.3% 17.8% 21.0% Hang Seng 24,164.00 -2.7% -2.7% 2.4% 6.4% Shanghai Comp 3,241.19 -2.1% -2.1% 0.2% 57.4% Nikkei 225 18,971.00 0.9% 0.9% 8.7% 25.3% India Sensex 29,448.95 0.8% 0.8% 7.1% 36.9% 3,417.51 0.4% 0.4% 1.6% 9.2% Brazil Ibovespa 49,981.19 -3.1% -3.1% -0.1% 6.1% Mexican Bolsa IPC 43,280.81 -2.1% -2.1% 0.3% 10.5% Singapore Straits Times Commodities (USD) Gold (spot $/oz) Price 1 Week U.S. Dollar Index Rate 1 Week MTD YTD 12 Mos 97.67 2.5% 2.5% 8.2% 22.6% CAD/USD 0.79 -0.9% -0.9% -7.9% -12.9% USD/CAD 1.26 0.8% 0.8% 8.5% 14.8% EUR/USD 1.08 -3.1% -3.1% -10.4% -21.8% GBP/USD 1.50 -2.6% -2.6% -3.4% -10.1% AUD/USD 0.77 -1.2% -1.2% -5.6% -15.1% MTD YTD 12 Mos USD/CHF 0.99 3.2% 3.2% -0.9% 11.9% -1.5% -13.6% USD/JPY 120.72 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 17.1% 1,166.55 -3.8% -3.8% Silver (spot $/oz) Currencies 15.87 -4.4% -4.4% 1.1% -26.1% EUR/JPY 130.93 -2.2% -2.2% -9.6% -8.4% 5,857.00 -1.1% -1.1% -8.0% -17.1% EUR/GBP 0.72 -0.6% -0.6% -7.2% -12.9% Oil (WTI spot/bbl) 49.61 -0.3% -0.3% -6.9% -51.2% EUR/CHF 1.07 0.0% 0.0% -11.2% -12.4% Oil (Brent spot/bbl) 59.81 -4.4% -4.4% 4.3% -44.7% USD/SGD 1.38 1.0% 1.0% 3.9% 9.0% 2.85 4.1% 4.1% -1.5% -39.0% USD/CNY 6.26 -0.1% -0.1% 0.9% 2.4% 296.50 -3.3% -3.3% -8.1% -25.9% USD/BRL 3.06 7.8% 7.8% 15.3% 31.8% Copper ($/metric ton) Natural Gas ($/mmBtu) Agriculture Index Source - Bloomberg. Note: Equity returns do not include dividends, except for the German DAX. Bond yields in local currencies. Copper and Agriculture Index data as of Thursday’s close. Dollar Index measures USD vs. six major currencies. Currency rates reflect market convention (CAD/USD is the exception). Currency returns quoted in terms of the first currency in each pairing. Data as of 9:34 pm GMT 3/6/15. Examples of how to interpret currency data: CAD/USD 0.79 means 1 Canadian dollar will buy 0.79 U.S. dollar. CAD/USD -12.9% return means the Canadian dollar fell 12.9% vs. the U.S. dollar year to date. USD/JPY 120.72 means 1 U.S. dollar will buy 120.72 yen. USD/JPY 17.1% return means the U.S. dollar rose 17.1% vs. the yen year to date. U P CO M I N G EV E N TS SUN, MAR 8 WED, MAR 11 FRI, MAR 13 Japan Q4 GDP final (0.5% q/q) China Retail Sales (11.6% y/y) Japan Industrial Prod. Japan Private Consump. (0.3% q/q) China Industrial Prod. (7.7% y/y) Canada Employment MON, MAR 9 China Fixed Assets (15.0% y/y) Canada Unemployment China CPI (1.0% y/y) U.K. Industrial Prod. (0.2% m/m) TUE, MAR 17 China New Yuan Loans (755B) THU, MAR 12 BoJ meeting Canada Housing Starts Eurozone Industrial Prod. (0.2% m/m) U.S. Retail Sales (0.4% m/m) Canada Housing Prices All data reflect Bloomberg consensus forecasts where available GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY March 6, 2015 5 AUTHORS Tom Garretson – Minneapolis, United States [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Kelly Bogdanov – San Francisco, United States [email protected]; RBC Capital Markets, LLC. Patrick McAllister – Toronto, Canada Distribution of Ratings For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories - Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell regardless of a firm’s own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets, LLC ratings of Top Pick (TP)/Outperform (O), Sector Perform (SP) and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis (as described below). [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Eric Lafortune – Toronto, Canada [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. Frédérique Carrier – London, United Kingdom [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Davide Boglietti – London, United Kingdom [email protected]; Royal Bank of Canada Investment Management (UK) Ltd. Jay Roberts – Hong Kong, China [email protected]; RBC Dominion Securities Inc. D I S C LO S U R E S A N D D I S C L A I M E R Analyst Certification All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of the subject securities or issuers. 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The abbreviation ‘RL On’ means the date a security was placed on a Recommended List. The abbreviation ‘RL Off’ means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List. GLOBAL INSIGHT WEEKLY Rating Distribution of Ratings - RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Research As of December 31, 2014 Investment Banking Services Provided During Past 12 Months Count Percent Count Percent Buy [Top Pick & Outperform] Hold [Sector Perform] Sell [Underperform] 897 686 112 52.92 40.47 6.61 290 137 6 32.33 19.97 5.36 Explanation of RBC Capital Markets, LLC Equity Rating System An analyst’s “sector” is the universe of companies for which the analyst provides research coverage. Accordingly, the rating assigned to a particular stock represents solely the analyst’s view of how that stock will perform over the next 12 months relative to the analyst’s sector average. 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To European Residents: Clients of United Kingdom subsidiaries may be entitled to compensation from the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme if any of these entities cannot meet its obligations. This depends on the type of business and the circumstances of the claim. Most types of investment business are covered for up to a total of £50,000. The Channel Islands subsidiaries are not covered by the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme; the offices of Royal Bank of Canada (Channel Islands) Limited in Guernsey and Jersey are covered by the respective compensation schemes in these jurisdictions for deposit taking business only. To Hong Kong Residents: This publication is distributed in Hong Kong by RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited and RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited, licensed corporations under the Securities and Futures Ordinance or, by Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch, a registered institution under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. Hong Kong persons wishing to obtain further information on any of the securities mentioned in this publication should contact RBC Investment Services (Asia) Limited, RBC Investment Management (Asia) Limited or Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch at 17/Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong (telephone number is 2848-1388). To Singapore Residents: This publication is distributed in Singapore by RBC (Singapore Branch) and RBC (Asia) Limited, registered entities granted offshore bank status by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. This material has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek independent advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do not obtain independent advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Copyright © RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2015 - Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2015 - Member CIPF Copyright © RBC Europe Limited 2015 Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2015 All rights reserved March 6, 2015 7
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