Citibank Wealth Management
Weekly FX Insight
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Insight
Mar 16, 2015
with data as of Mar 13, 2015
Market Review & Focus
FX Analysis
FX & Eco. Figures Forecast
P. 1 - 3
P. 4 - 8
P. 9 - 13
© 2013 Citibank
Citibank and Arc Design is a registered service mark of Citibank, N.A. or Citigroup Inc.
Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
Weekly FX Recap
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Major Currencies Weekly Performance
LAST WEEK PERFORMANCE
CCY
USD
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CAD
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CHF
GOLD
52 week
high
52 week
low
1 year %
change
26.01%
Weekly changes versus US dollar
USD INDEX
Close Price
Day High
Day Low
100.33
100.39
97.29
100.39
78.91
1.0496
1.0907
1.0463
1.3993
1.0463 -24.32%
121.40
122.03
120.61
122.03
100.82 -16.11%
GBP
1.4744
1.5137
1.4700
1.7192
1.4700 -11.31%
CAD
1.2783
1.2824
1.2573
1.2824
1.0621 -13.35%
AUD
0.7637
0.7740
0.7561
0.9505
0.7561 -15.44%
NZD
0.7334
0.7443
0.7192
0.8836
0.7177 -14.15%
CHF
1.0056
1.0129
0.9825
1.0240
0.7406 -13.02%
GOLD
1158.55
1175.40
1147.69
1392.22 1131.24 -15.44%
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
EUR
2.78%
-3.21%
JPY
-0.47%
-1.95%
-1.26%
-1.02%
-0.38%
-1.99%
-0.74%
-5.00%
-3.00%
-1.00%
1.00%
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
3.00%
5.00%
USD
The USD pared gains as U.S. retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.6% in Feb, although the dollar index rose
above 100 amid expectations of earlier rate hikes by the Fed. The dollar index rose 2.8%% to close at 100.33 last
week. USD outlook: The dollar index may test higher to 101.79.
AUD
The AUD rebounded from lows to 0.77 as Australia’s employment increased 15600 while unemployment rate
dropped to 6.3%, both better than expected. AUD/USD dropped 1% to close at 0.7637 last week. AUD outlook:
AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250.
EUR
The EUR dropped to 1.0463, a 12-year low as the ECB started buying bonds last week, suppressing sovereign
bond yields across the Eurozone and widening the yield spreads. EUR/USD dropped 3.2% to close at 1.0496 last
week. EUR outlook: EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0341-1.0433.
NZD
The NZD rebounded from lows to 0.73 as the RBNZ kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.5% and implied not to
hike rates in the policy statement. NZD/USD dropped 0.4% to close at 0.7334 last week. NZD outlook: NZD/USD
may test lower to 0.7177 upon consolidation.
1
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Weekly FX Strategies
1.
Bearish - AUD
• The AUD may be undermined as the RBA may cut rates again in May
• AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250 (5.63)
2.
Bearish – NZD
• The NZD may be restrained as the RBNZ may talk down the NZD this week
• NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7177 (5.57) upon consolidation
3.
Neutral – CAD
• The CAD may remain range-trading as the BoC may not cut rates this year
• USD/CAD may range trade between 1.2547-1.3065 (6.19-5.94)
2
Weekly FX Focus:
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
The AUD may be undermined as the RBA may still cut rates
• Although the AUD rebounded recently, the AUD may still
be restrained and may resume downtrend upon
consolidation amid China’s economic slowdown and USD
strengthening.
Chart 1: China’s Import of Iron Ore (‘0000 Mt)
9000
8500
8000
• Decreasing China’s demand: As the correction in the
property market is spreading, steel consumption in China has
already dropped significantly. Since iron ores exported by
Australia are used in refining, China’s import of iron ore has
also slowed down significantly(Chart 1), which may dampen
Australia’s export.
• More monetary policy easing in Asia: We think it is
significant that this week saw the Bank of Korea and the Bank
of Thailand ease monetary policy further after the wall of
central bank easings in January. Since Asia is the largest
trading region of Australia, the RBA may keep talking down the
AUD or even further cut rates in order keep Australia’s export
competitive.
7500
7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of February, 2015
Chart 2: AUD/USD – Daily Chart
• A probable rate cut in May: Although Australia’s
unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in February, the decline in
unemployment came from falling labour force participation, not
from faster jobs creation, which is not what the RBA wants to
see. Thus, the RBA may cut rates again in May.
• AUD’s downside risks (Chart 2): We expect AUD/USD may
drop to 0.70 for the coming 6-12 months.
6-12 month forecast: 0.70
Source: Citi, forecast as of February 20, 2015
• Significant factor: March labour force data and Q1 CPI data
will be available before RBA’s policy meeting in May. They are
the key to rate cuts.
3
AUD/USD
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250 (5.63)
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
0.7637
(5.93)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
0.7740
(6.01)
0.7561
(5.87)
0.7000
(5.44)
0.7250
(5.63)
0.7909
(6.14)
0.8295
(6.43)
0.75
(5.82)
0.70
(5.44)
Upcoming Economic Data
Mar 17: RBA’s minutes
Market Recap:

The AUD dropped on a surge in the USD due
to expectations of earlier hike rates by the
Fed, although the AUD once rebounded as
Australia's unemployment rate dropped from
6.4% to 6.3% in Feb.
AUD Outlook:

Citi
analysts
think
the
decline
in
unemployment came from falling labour force
participation, not from faster jobs creation.
Thus, we continue to expect the RBA to cut
the interest rate by 25bps in May, which may
undermine the AUD in the medium and long
term.

China's weak fixed asset investment and
industrial production may dampen Australia's
export of iron ore. A decline in Australia's
export income may pressure the AUD.

0.7909 (55MA)
0.7250 (Range bottom)
Strong U.S. job data fueled expectations of
earlier rate hikes by the Fed. A surge in the
USD may pressure the AUD.
Technical Analysis:

AUD/USD may test lower to 0.7250 (5.63),
with resistance at 0.7909 (6.14).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
4
NZD/USD
Please note and carefully read the
NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7177 (5.57) upon
Important Disclosure on the last page
consolidation
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
0.7334
(5.70)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
0.7443
(5.78)
0.7192
(5.59)
0.6948
(5.40)
0.7177
(5.57)
0.7609
(5.91)
0.7811
(6.07)
0.74
(5.75)
0.67
(5.20)
Upcoming Economic Data
Mar 18: BoP Current Account
Balance
Mar 19: GDP
Market Recap:

The RBNZ kept the interest rate unchanged
as expected and said NZ is in a different
situation than many economies cutting rates,
which prompted the NZD to pare losses.
NZD Outlook:

However, the RBNZ cut its 2015 inflation
forecast from 1.5% to 0.4%, highlighting
downside risk of inflation and rate outlook.

Citi analysts expect the RBNZ to keep the
interest rate unchanged, given the strong
domestic demand and housing market.

The NZD only dropped mildly against other
trading partners' currencies. Citi analysts
expect the RBNZ to keep talking down the
NZD, which may undermine the kiwi.
0.7609 (Dec 2014 low)
0.7177 (Feb low)
0.6948 (Aug 2010 low)
Technical Analysis:

NZD/USD may test lower to 0.7177 (5.57)
upon consolidation. A breach may send the
pair lower to 0.6948 (5.40).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
5
USD/CAD
Please note and carefully read the
USD/CAD may rise but may find resistance at 1.3065
Important Disclosure on the last page
(5.94)
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
1.2783
(6.08)
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st
Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3m
Forecast
6-12m
Forecast
1.2824
(6.06)
1.2573
(6.18)
1.2352
(6.29)
1.2547
(6.19)
1.3065
(5.94)
1.3464
(5.77)
1.25
(6.21)
1.30
(5.97)
Upcoming Economic Data
Mar 20: CPI
Mar 20: Retail Sales
Market Recap:

The CAD dropped on a surge in the USD
due to expectations of earlier hike rates by
the Fed and as Canada's unemployment rate
rose from 6.6% to 6.8% in February.
CAD Outlook:

Canada's full-time employment posted a
significant growth of 34K, reflecting job
market did not deteriorate significantly.

BoC governor said the BoC would observe
the economic impacts due to falling oil prices,
implying the BoC is unlikely to cut rates
again.

Pay attention to CPI and consumption data
released this week. Citi analysts expect the
decline in oil prices has not been completely
reflected in the retail market and retail sales
may further drop, which may undermine the
CAD.
1.3065 (2009 top)
1.2352-1.2547 (Feb low &
20MA)
Technical Analysis:

Since the weekly chart shows there is a
divergence in the RSI, the pair may find
resistance at 1.3065 (5.94).
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
6
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
EUR/USD
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
1.0496
(8.15)
1.0907
(8.47)
1.0463
(8.13)
1.0000
(7.77)
1.0341
(8.03)
1.0684
(8.30)
1.1098
(8.62)
1.12
(8.70)
0.99
(7.69)
An official start of ECB's bond purchase program may
undermine the EUR in the medium and long term
Weekly recap: The ECB dropped amid an official start of ECB's
bond purchase program, the unsolved divergence of
deficit
reduction between Greece and its creditors and fueling expectations
of earlier rate hikes by the Fed.
Outlook analysis: The bond buying from ECB has already
suppressed long-term sovereign bond yields across the Eurozone
while U.S. treasury yields have been rising due to expectations of
earlier rate hikes by the Fed. Widening Europe-U.S. yield spreads
may undermine the EUR in the medium and long term.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD may test lower to 1.0341 (8.03),
with short-term resistance at 1.0684 (8.30).
EUR/USD – Daily Chart
1.0341 (1989 low)
1.0000
(psychological level)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
USD/JPY
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
121.40 122.03 120.61 115.86 119.01 124.14 125.69
118
130
(63.97) (63.64) (64.39) (67.03) (65.25) (62.56) (61.78) (65.81) (59.74)
The JPY may be undermined in the medium and long term as
negative Japan's core inflation (ex-sales tax) may come i
Weekly recap: The USD dropped due to a surge in the USD
triggered by expectations of earlier hike rates by the Fed and as
Japan's GDP growth slowed down from 2.2% to 1.5% in Q4 2014.
Outlook analysis: Although purchasing power rebounded and
corporate earnings increased, if oil prices and the JPY remain at
the current levels, Citi analysts think negative core inflation (exsales tax) may come in and the BoJ may expand QE in Jul, which
may undermine the JPY.
Technical analysis: USD/JPY may test higher to 124.14 (62.56)
after a breach of a resistance at 121.85, with support at 119.01
(65.25).
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
124.14 (Jun 2007 top)
119.01 (55MA)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
7
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
GBP/USD
Last Price
Last wk
High
Last wk
Low
The brackets are the exchange rates in terms of Hong Kong
dollar, with HKD $7.7657 exchange rate for reference
2nd
Support
1st Support
1st
Resistance
2nd
Resistance
0-3M
6-12M
1.4744 1.5137 1.4700 1.4231 1.4389 1.4966 1.5137
1.53
1.32
(11.45) (11.75) (11.42) (11.05) (11.17) (11.62) (11.75) (11.87) (10.24)
The GBP may be restrained due to political uncertainty as
General Election is less than two months away, although U.K.
economy remains strong
Weekly recap: The GBP dropped due to a surge in the USD
triggered by expectations of earlier hike rates by the Fed and as
U.K. industrial and manufacturing production dropped from
0.1%MoM to 0.5%MoM in Jan.
Outlook analysis: We expect low oil prices and rising salary may
underpin U.K. consumption amid strong U.K. economy and falling
unemployment rate. However, General Election in May is less than
two months away, with no political party taking the lead shown by
polls. Political uncertainty may undermine the GBP.
Technical analysis: GBP/USD may still have downside pressure.
However, since the daily chart shows the RSI is in the oversold
region, the pair may find support at 1.4389 (11.17).
GBP/USD – Daily Chart
1.4966 (Jan top)
1.4231-1.4389 (May & Jun 2010
lows)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
USD/CNY
Last Price
Last wk High
Last wk Low
0-3M
6-12M
6.2589
6.2677
6.2571
6.25
6.30
Continuous trade surplus may underpin the CNY in the long
term although China's rate cuts may undermine the CNY in the
short term
Weekly recap: The CNY rebounded from lows as markets digested
the impacts of a rate cut by the PBoC, although China's Jan-Feb
fixed asset investment and industrial production dropped to a low
since 2001 and since 2009 respectively.
Outlook analysis: Data showed targeted easing policies
implemented by the PBoC did not support the economy effectively.
We expect the PBoC may cut the interest rate twice and cut RRR
three times this year, which may undermine the CNY in the short
term.
However, in the long term, the PBoC may not let the CNY
depreciate too much amid increasing trade surplus and avoid
undermining the internationalization of the CNY. USD/CNY may
drop to 6.10 in the long term.
USD/CNY – Daily Chart
6.30 (6-12 month forecast)
6.25 (0-3 month forecast)
Long-term forecast: 6.10
Source: Bloomberg L.P., as of March 13, 2015
8
Upcoming Economic Figures and Events
The USD may be underpinned amid FOMC’s rate decision
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
FOMC’s rate decision
U.S.
Markets may pay attention to whether the Fed may delete "patience" and may be
optimistic about the economic outlook, which may underpin the USD
SNB’s rate decision
Switzerland
Policymakers look set to talk down CHF, framing it ‘extremely overvalued’ and
hold over the market the threat of more FX intervention or further rate cuts.
RBA’s minutes
Australia
The Board Minutes will provide more details on the decision to keep the cash rate
target at 2.25% and give more clarification about possibility of further rate cuts.
2014 Q4 GDP
New
Zealand
Economic activity is likely to have expanded at another solid clip in Q4. Our 0.9%
growth forecast would push GDP higher to 3.5%. We expect growth to be led by
household consumption, with a small contribution from dwelling investment
March 19 (Thur):
FOMC’s rate decision
March 19 (Thur):
SNB’s rate decision
March 17 (Tue):
RBA’s minutes
March 19 (Thur):
GDP (QoQ)
Citi forecast
Prior
0.90%
1.00%
9
Appendix 1:
Citi Interest Rate and FX Forecast for 2015
Please note and carefully read the Important Disclosure on the last page
Citi FX Outlook Forecast
Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
AUD/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CNY
0-3 month
95.42
1.12
1.53
118
0.98
0.75
0.74
1.25
6.25
Source: Citi, forecast as of Feb 27, 2015
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
JPY
6-12 month
106.94
0.99
1.32
130
1.11
0.70
0.67
1.30
6.30
Forecast
downgraded
Citi FX Interest Rate Forecast
3/13/15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-0.75
2.25
3.50
0.75
2.50
Forecast
upgraded
2Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-0.75
2.00
3.50
0.75
2.00
Rate cut
expectations
3Q ’15
0.25
0.05
0.50
0.10
-0.75
2.00
3.50
0.75
2.00
4Q ’15
0.50
0.05
0.50
0.10
-0.75
2.00
3.50
0.75
2.00
Rate hike
expectations
The EUR may find support at 1.12 in the short term as Greek problem may be solved and the Eurozone's economy
slightly improved. However, the EUR may drop to 0.99 for the coming 6-12 months as the ECB may expand
QE.
Due to strong economy and possible rate hikes in 2016 Q1, GBP/USD may stabilize at 1.53 for the coming 0-3
months. But political risk premia may rise further out and U.K. is facing the serious twin fiscal/ current account
deficits, which may undermine the GBP. Thus, Citi analysts expect the GBP to test lower to 1.32 for the
coming 6-12 months.
The AUD downtrend may be limited to 0.75 since it has been seriously oversold in the short term. However,
since iron ore, Australia's major export, may remain weak and it is difficult for Australia's export profitability to
recover, the AUD may drop to 0.70 for the coming 6-12 months.
Prices of dairy products, NZ’s major export, may remain weak in the medium term. Since China and Australia, NZ’s
major trading partners, eased monetary policies amid global inflation cooling, forcing the corresponding currencies
to depreciate, NZ’s export competitiveness has been weakened, which may undermine the NZD.
USD/JPY may range trade between 116-121 amid a lack of news of the BoJ expanding QE. However, USD/JPY
may rise to 130 for the coming 6-12 months amid a divergence between U.S. monetary policy and Japan's.
10
Appendix 2:
Citi FX Quarterly Forecasts
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
1Q '15
2Q ’15
3Q ’15
4Q '15
1Q '16
2Q '16
3Q '16
4Q '16
1Q '17
Dollar Index
95.9
99.9
104.3
107.2
107.9
108.6
109.4
110.1
109.7
EUR/USD
1.11
1.07
1.02
0.99
0.98
0.97
0.96
0.95
0.96
GBP/USD
1.52
1.45
1.36
1.32
1.31
1.31
1.31
1.30
1.31
USD/JPY
119
123
128
130
131
132
133
134
135
USD/CHF
0.99
1.04
1.08
1.12
1.12
1.13
1.14
1.15
1.15
AUD/USD
0.75
0.73
0.71
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
NZD/USD
0.74
0.71
0.68
0.67
0.66
0.66
0.66
0.65
0.65
USD/CAD
1.25
1.27
1.29
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.30
1.29
USD/CNY
6.25
6.27
6.29
6.28
6.24
6.20
6.16
6.12.
6.10
USD / SGD
1.37
1.38
1.39
1.40
1.39
1.39
1.38
1.37
1.36
USD / BRL
3.10
3.08
3.06
3.05
3.04
3.03
3.02
3.01
3.00
USD / RUB
65.2
67.2
69.2
70.1
69.5
69.0
68.4
67.8
66.6
USD / ZAR
11.81
11.92
12.04
12.12
12.16
12.20
12.24
12.28
12.24
Source: Citi, as of Feb 20, 2015
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
11
Appendix 3:
Last week’s Economic Figures
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Monday
03/09/2015 07:50
JN
!
Trade Balance BoP Basis
Jan
-¥864.2B
-¥936.0B
-¥395.6B
03/09/2015 07:50
JN
!!!
GDP Annualized SA QoQ
4Q
1.50%
2.20%
2.20%
03/09/2015 20:15
CA
!!
Housing Starts
Feb
156.3K
179.0K
187.0K
Tuesday
03/10/2015 08:30
AU
!
NAB Business Confidence
Feb
0
--
3
03/10/2015 09:30
CH
!!
CPI YoY
Feb
1.40%
1.00%
0.80%
Wednesday
03/11/2015 07:30
AU
!
Westpac Consumer Conf SA MoM
Mar
-1.2%
--
8.00%
03/11/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Industrial Production YoY
Jan
1.30%
1.30%
0.80%
03/11/2015 17:30
UK
!!
Manufacturing Production YoY
Jan
1.90%
2.60%
2.60%
Feb
--
-$201.0B
-3.50%
Thursday
03/12/2015 02:00
US
!
Monthly Budget Statement
03/12/2015 04:00
NZ
!!!
RBNZ Official Cash Rate
Mar
3.50%
3.50%
03/12/2015 08:01
UK
!!
RICS House Price Balance
Feb
14%
6%
7%
03/12/2015 08:30
AU
!!!
Employment Change
Feb
15.6K
15.0K
-12.2K
03/12/2015 08:30
AU
!!!
Unemployment Rate
Feb
6.30%
6.40%
6.40%
03/12/2015 17:30
UK
!
Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn
Jan
-£8412
-£9650
-£9929
03/12/2015 18:00
EC
!
Industrial Production WDA YoY
Jan
1.20%
0.10%
0.60%
03/12/2015 20:30
US
!!
Retail Sales Advance MoM
Feb
-0.60%
0.30%
-0.80%
03/12/2015 20:30
US
!!
Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM
Feb
-0.10%
0.50%
-1.10%
03/12/2015 20:30
US
!!
Initial Jobless Claims
Mar
289K
305K
325K
Friday
03/13/2015 05:30
NZ
!
BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI
Feb
55.9
--
50.7
03/13/2015 20:30
CA
!!
Unemployment Rate
Feb
6.80%
6.70%
6.60%
03/13/2015 20:30
CA
!!
Net Change in Employment
Feb
-1.0K
-5.0K
35.4K
03/13/2015 22:00
US
!!
U. of Mich. Sentiment
Mar
91.2
95.5
95.4
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
12
Appendix 3:
Upcoming Economic Figures (Mar 16, 2015 – Mar 20, 2015)
Please note and carefully read the
Important Disclosure on the last page
Time
Importance
Event
Period
Actual
Survey
Prior
Jan
Feb
Feb
Jan
-----
-0.90%
2.10%
-0.50%
-13.55B
1.00%
2.20%
-2.00%
Feb
Jan
Mar
----
-0.30%
-58
-0.30%
17.8B
53
Mar
Feb
--
4Q
4Q
---
-3.060B
0.80%
-5.012B
1.00%
Mar
--
--
-0.25%
Feb
Jan
Mar
---
-31.0K
5.70%
-38.6K
5.70%
Feb
Jan
Feb
Feb
Mar
4Q
Mar
--------
0.30%
--2.40%
0.50%
0.25%
-$102.0B
--
0.20%
-$174.8B
-2.00%
-0.70%
0.25%
-$100.3B
289K
Australia
03/17/2015 08:30
Tue
!!
RBA March Meeting Minutes
Mar
Canada
03/16/2015 20:30
03/20/2015 20:30
03/20/2015 20:30
03/20/2015 20:30
Mon
Fri
Fri
Fri
!
!!
!!
!!
Int'l Securities Transactions
CPI YoY
CPI Core YoY
Retail Sales MoM
03/17/2015 18:00
03/20/2015 17:00
03/17/2015 18:00
Tue
Fri
Tue
!!!
!
!!
CPI YoY
ECB Current Account SA
ZEW Survey Expectations
03/17/2015
03/18/2015 07:50
Tue
Wed
!!
!
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
Trade Balance Adjusted
03/18/2015 05:45
03/19/2015 05:45
Wed
Thur
!
!!
BoP Current Account Balance
GDP SA QoQ
Europe / Germany
Japan
-¥1276.5B -¥406.1B
New Zealand
Switzerland
03/19/2015 16:30
Thur
!!
SNB 3-Month Libor Target Rate
03/18/2015 17:30
03/18/2015 17:30
03/18/2015 17:30
Wed
Wed
Wed
!!
!!
!!
Jobless Claims Change
ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths
Bank of England Minutes
03/16/2015 21:15
03/17/2015 04:00
03/17/2015 20:30
03/17/2015 20:30
03/19/2015 02:00
03/19/2015 20:30
03/19/2015 20:30
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Mon
Tue
Tue
Tue
Thur
Thur
Thur
!
!
!!
!!
!!!
!
!!
Industrial Production MoM
Total Net TIC Flows
Housing Starts MoM
Building Permits MoM
FOMC Rate Decision
Current Account Balance
Initial Jobless Claims
U.K.
U.S.
13
Important Disclosure
For any enquiries, please call (852) 2860-0333
This document is based on information provided by Citigroup Investment Research, Citigroup Global Markets, and
Citigroup Global Wealth Management. It is provided for your information only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation
for the purchase or sale of any security. Information in this document has been prepared without taking account of the
objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Accordingly, investors should, before acting on the
information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. Any decision to
purchase securities mentioned herein should be made based on a review of your particular circumstances with your
financial adviser. Investments referred to in this document are not recommendations of Citibank (Hong Kong) Limited
(“Citibank”) or its affiliates. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources that Citibank believes
to be reliable, Citi analysts do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete and condensed. All opinions,
projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as of the date of publication and are subject to change
without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments also are subject to change without notice. Past performance
is no guarantee of future results. The document is not to be construed as a solicitation or recommendation of investment
advice. Subject to the nature and contents of the document, the investments described herein are subject to fluctuations in
price and/or value and investors may get back less than originally invested. Certain high-volatility investments can be
subject to sudden and large falls in value that could equal the amount invested. Certain investments contained in the
document may have tax implications for private customers whereby levels and basis of taxation may be subject to change.
Citibank does not provide tax advice and investors should seek advice from a tax adviser. Investment products: (i) are not
insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; (ii) are not deposits or other obligations of any insured depository
institution (including Citibank); and (iii) are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount
invested. Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecasts are a joint venture between Citi’s foreign exchange, global macro and technical
strategy groups and our developed and emerging markets economists. Under normal circumstances, we expect to present
Forecasts on a monthly schedule although we may offer intra month updates if circumstances dictate. Technical Trend: All
views, opinions and estimates derived from CitiFX Technicals (i) may change without notice and (ii) may differ from those
views;, opinions and estimates held or expressed by Citi or other Citi personnel, including Citi Foreign Exchange: Forecast.
Should CitiFX Technicals not cover any major currency pairs, the indication of short-term technical "bullish", "bearish", or
"neutral" trends will be based on the result of analysis with various widely known short-term technical analysis tools,
namely RSI, MACD, fibonacci, stochastics, bollinger bands, and simple moving averages.
14