The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid BY Liam C. Malloy, Ph.D. University of Rhode Island Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz, Ph.D. University of Rhode Island 2015 REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS 2015 REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS WILL EXPANDING MEDICAID HELP THE ECONOMY? 50 Park Row West, Suite 100 Providence, RI 02903 www.collaborativeri.org Amber Caulkins Program Director [email protected] 401.588.1792 The College & University Research Collaborative (the Collaborative) is a statewide public/private partnership of Rhode Island’s 11 colleges and universities that connects public policy and academic research. The Collaborative’s mission is to increase the use of non-partisan academic research in policy development and to provide an evidence-based foundation for government decision-making. The Collaborative turns research into action by sharing research with policymakers, community leaders, partner organizations, and the citizens of Rhode Island. CURRENT Research Projects WORKFORCE The Economic Benefits of a Flexible Workplace by Barbara Silver, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island The Knowledge, Skills, and Abilities Needed for Growing Occupations in Rhode Island by Matthew Bodah, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island Preparing Rhode Island’s Workforce for the Jobs of the Future by Elzotbek Rustambekov, Ph.D., Bryant University Rhode Island Unemployment: Is There a Labor Market Mismatch? by Neil Mehrotra, Ph.D., Brown University Liam C. Malloy, Ph.D., is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Rhode Island. He earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland, focusing on macroeconomics and political economy. His research focuses on the causes and consequences of income distribution, mainly in the United States. He focuses on behavioral and political economy explanations of the income distribution. His work has appeared in Education Economics, The American Prospect, and HBR Online. Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz, Ph.D., is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island. She received her Ph.D. in 2009 from the University of Maryland, College Park. Her research focuses on public policy, inequality, and political geography. Professor PearsonMerkowitz’s research has appeared in some of the top political science journals including the Journal of Politics and the American Journal of Political Science. INFRASTRUCTURE Improving Infrastructure through Public Private Partnerships by Amine Ghanem, Ph.D., Roger Williams University Millennials on the Move: Attracting Young Workers through Better Transportation by Jonathan Harris, M.I.D., Johnson & Wales University The Road to Better Bridges: Strategies for Maintaining Infrastructure by Nicole Martino, Ph.D., Roger Williams University REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS Choosing a Health Exchange for Rhode Island by Jessica Mulligan, Ph.D., Providence College The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid by Liam Malloy, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island; Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island Ensuring Paid Family Leave Pays Off by Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island Rachel-Lyn Longo, Student Researcher, University of Rhode Island Strategies for a Competitive Rhode Island by Suchandra Basu, Ph.D., Rhode Island College; Ramesh Mohan, Ph.D., Bryant University; Joseph Roberts, Ph.D., Roger Williams University MANUFACTURING Rhode Island’s Maker-Related Assets by Dawn Edmondson, M.S., New England Institute of Technology; Susan Gorelick, Ph.D., New England Institute of Technology; Beth Mosher, MFA, Rhode Island School of Design WILL EXPANDING MEDICAID HELP THE ECONOMY? The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid Liam C. Malloy, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island Shanna Pearson-Merkowitz, Ph.D., University of Rhode Island On March 23, 2010, President Obama signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) designed to increase health insurance coverage among the U.S. population. A key component of the law was an expansion of Medicaid to cover up to 17 million more low-income individuals.(a) After a series of legal challenges, in 2012 the Supreme Court upheld many parts of the Affordable Care Act but ruled that states could not be required to expand (a) Medicaid is the government’s health insurance program for low-income individuals; it is jointly funded and administered by the federal and state governments. Medicare, on the other hand, is the federal health insurance program for individuals over age 65 and people with disabilities. (b) After the Supreme Court decision, the Congressional Budget Office revised its estimates and predicted that 13 million people, rather than 17 million, would gain coverage under Medicaid and CHIP by 2018.1 Medicaid coverage.(b) Since then, just over half of states have chosen to expand Medicaid, while the remainder have not.2 The decision whether or not to expand Medicaid has had a substantial impact on access to health care coverage, and states like Rhode Island that chose to expand have had significantly higher increases3 in the percentage of their population covered. Fig. 1 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN Medicaid enrollment since expansion Adopted Medicaid expansion Not adopting Medicaid expansion Medicaid expansion under consideration 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, State Health Facts database 2,3 The Collaborative | March 2015 2 The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid Since the implementation of the Affordable Care Act,(c) enrollment in Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) in Rhode Island increased 37%, from 191,000 to 262,000.3 Rhode Island effectively reduced its total uninsured population to an estimated 9.3% by mid2014, from 13.3% prior to the implementation of the ACA (the current national figure is 13.4% and was 17.3% before the ACA).4 Overall, uninsured rates still vary widely from state to state, from 24.0% in Texas to 4.9% in Massachusetts.4 If we look simply at the number of people covered, Rhode Island’s decision to expand Medicaid was a success. But the arguments for the expansion of health insurance made by the Obama administration were not just moral – they were also economic. The Council of Economic Advisors argued that the lack of health care coverage among many Americans has a significant negative effect on national economic prosperity.5 On the other side, critics and political leaders in states that rejected the expansion worried that enlarging Medicaid would hurt state economies and strain state budgets.6 Fig. 2 and 3 Uninsured Rates prior to and after medicaid expansion 17.3% U.S. 13.4% Percent uninsured 2013 2014 Percentage of Population Uninsured (c) The ACA expanded Medicaid eligibility from people living at or below the federal poverty line ($11,670 a year for one person, $23,850 for a family of 4) to people earning up to 138% of the poverty line ($16,105 a year for one person, $32,913 for a family of 4). Funding for the expansion is provided by the federal government. Source: Gallup, Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index survey 4 Did Rhode Island make the right choice by expanding Medicaid? What will the impact of that decision be on the state’s economy? To answer this question, we analyze how health insurance coverage rates and health care spending levels affected economic growth in 48 states over 23 years. Our research indicates that the expansion of health insurance coverage can help Rhode Island’s economy, but only if the state controls costs. 3 The Collaborative | March 2015 The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid insurance has been shown to decrease the onset of avoidable illnesses, increase access to care for treatable illnesses, and decrease the likelihood that relatively minor illnesses become severe.9 Health care coverage, however, is not without its costs, and these costs must be balanced against the economic gains that come from better health. The Relationship Between Health Coverage and Economic Growth Despite the lively debate in the popular press over the potential economic consequences of expanding health care coverage, few studies have directly investigated the effect of universal or near-universal health insurance on employment and economic growth. Instead, the academic literature to date largely relies on the assumption that because greater access to health insurance improves health and better health leads to economic growth, health insurance coverage should have a positive economic effect. This, however, does not account for the potential negative effects of health care costs. (d) Reducing the prevalence of particular health conditions has been shown to increase personal earnings by 15 to 20%, while poor health has been identified as a primary reason people leave the workforce early and file for social welfare programs, particularly Disability (SSI).6 What is less clear from existing research is the overall effect of health care spending on economic growth. While some literature suggests that it can act as an economic stimulus by increasing both wages and the number of jobs in the health care sector,10 escalating health care costs can also be a serious drag on economic growth.(e) Health insurance premiums, for instance, have risen by 69% since 2004,11 and studies have documented that premium increases meaningfully cut into wages and raise the likelihood of being unemployed or underemployed.12 For state governments, increasing health costs can result in higher taxes, more borrowing, or cuts to other important programs and services, including economic growth investments such as education and infrastructure.13 It is also important to consider that health care spending is not necessarily associated with better health outcomes: The United States spends far more per person on health, yet has a lower life expectancy than many other developed nations.(f) The economic benefits of having a healthy population are clear: workers are more productive, less likely to miss work due to illness or disability, and less likely to leave the workforce due to illness or death.(d) Several studies indicate that improved health outcomes are “one of very few robust predictors of economic growth,”7 and research suggests that health improvements since the 1970s added approximately $3.2 trillion per year to national wealth in the United States.8 The studies are also clear that health insurance coverage can help create a healthier population. Quality health (e) While the Affordable Care Act originally had provisions included to help control the increase in health spending in the United States, these items were cut in an attempt to gain passage as people became concerned about the government making health care decisions instead of doctors. (f) Life expectancy at birth in the United States is 79, placing the U.S. 35th worldwide. 83 is the life expectancy in most European Union countries.14 Life Expectancy (years) Fig. 4 Health Care Spending and Life Expectancy Around The World, 2012 % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % Health Expenditure as a % of GDP Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database14 The Collaborative | March 2015 4 The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid our research ON the Economic Findings Impact of Health Coverage and (g) Private, employer-provided insurance could be linked to economic growth simply because it is a proxy for employment. Public health insurance programs, on the other hand, often cover low-wage workers and the unemployed. (h) There are a number of potential reasons why public coverage impacts economic growth but private coverage does not, many of which have to do with the different populations covered by the two. Almost everyone with private coverage, for example, already has a job, so health coverage will not increase their labor supply. Health Spending Economic Growth & Health Insurance Coverage While existing research offers good reason to believe that expanding health care coverage can help the economy by making workers healthier and therefore more productive, it also suggests that, to the extent that enlarging coverage increases government spending, the net effect on the economy may be negative. Our research takes into account both of these factors – expanded coverage and increased spending – by looking directly at the connection between health care coverage, health care spending, and economic growth. Our analysis indicates that enrollment by working-age adults in government-sponsored health insurance programs – including Medicaid, Medicare, and military health plans – all increase economic growth. Our estimates suggest that a one percentage point increase in public coverage of the working-age population increases annual real GDP growth by 0.08 percentage points and increases employment growth by the same 0.08 percentage points. However, our analysis indicates that there is no significant relationship between private coverage for the working-age population and economic growth.(h) Using data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the U.S. Census, we analyze how health insurance coverage and health care spending affected economic growth (in terms of GDP and total employment) in the lower 48 states from 1988 to 2010.15 We compare rates of private and public coverage and analyze coverage by age group, with a particular focus on the working-age population of 18 to 65 year olds.(g) We examine health care spending both per capita and as a percentage of state GDP, and we break it out into private spending and government spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and military health care (for both active duty servicemembers and veterans). We also include a number of control variables in our analysis to ensure our findings are not driven by unobserved factors. To understand the significance of these findings, consider Medicaid, the public health insurance program over which states have the most control (because it is jointly funded and administered by the federal and state governments). In 2013, only 13% of working age adults in Rhode Island were covered by Medicaid, close to the national average of 12%.16 However, enrollment surged in the first year of the Medicaid expansion, with total enrollees (including children and the elderly) increasing 37% by November 2014.3 Although the data do not indicate what share of the new enrollees are working-age adults, a conservative estimate suggests that this increase in Medicaid enrollment included a five percentage point increase in public Our analysis indicates that enrollment by working-age adults in government-sponsored health insurance programs – including Medicaid, Medicare, and military health plans – all increase economic growth. 5 The Collaborative | March 2015 The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid coverage of the working age population, bringing the rate to 18%. The results of our analysis suggest that this could lead to a 0.4 percentage point increase in state per capita GDP growth and employment growth rates.(i) Fig. 5 Medicaid Spending Per Enrollee, 2011 CT MA RI Economic Growth & Health Care Spending Our analysis indicates that the more individuals and businesses spend per person on health care, the less economic growth states experience (the job growth rate is not affected). A one percent increase in private health care spending is associated with a 0.05 percentage point decrease in a state’s GDP growth rate. This is probably due to the “crowding-out” effect of health care spending, in which money that businesses spend on health care is money they don’t use to increase wages, hire new employees, or invest in new product development.12 Likewise, the more individuals pay in health care costs, the less likely they are to save or to spend that money on goods, services, and investments such as higher education and the more likely they are to go into debt or file for bankruptcy.17 In contrast to private spending, increased government spending on health care does not appear to affect economic (GDP) growth. However, higher public spending, especially Medicaid spending per enrollee, is associated with slower job growth. This may be due to the fact that Medicaid spending and spending on job growth investments such as education and infrastructure are typically inversely related. For example, one study found that each additional dollar that states spend on Medicaid results in a 6 to 7 cent cut in higher education appropriations.13 Our analysis indicates that a one percent increase in Medicaid spending per enrollee reduces USA Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, State Health Facts database16 a state’s employment growth rate by 0.008 percentage points per year. In 2011, the last year for which national data are available, Rhode Island spent $9,247 per enrollee on Medicaid, the second-highest rate in the country.18 If the state could reduce Medicaid spending to the 2011 national average of approximately $5,790 per enrollee – about a 37% decrease – the employment growth rate could be increased by as much as 0.29 percentage points.(j) This represents a significant potential impact given that Rhode Island’s employment growth rate averaged around 0.4% annually over the past decade. Controlling Health Care Costs Reducing health care costs while maintaining quality care – and thus reaping the economic benefits of expanded coverage – is a complicated endeavor.(k) One option is managed care programs, in which health care is coordinated, typically through a patient’s primary care physician, to manage usage, quality, and costs. While evidence on the impact of managed care is mixed, research suggests that enrolling high-cost populations in these programs has the most potential to save (i) From 2000 to 2013, per capita GDP growth in Rhode Island averaged less than 1.3% and employment growth averaged less than 0.4% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thus a 0.4 percentage point increase in the growth rates would be quite large. (j) Like Medicaid coverage rates, spending per enrollee varies significantly from state to state, from a low of $3,728 in Nevada to a high of $9,474 in Alaska (as of 2011).18 (k) Restricting care is one obvious way to reduce costs, but doing so would be counterproductive because the economic benefits of expanded insurance coverage come from having healthier, more productive workers. The Collaborative | March 2015 6 The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid (l) 79% of Medicaid enrollees in Rhode Island cost Medicaid less than $5,000 a year. The average annual expenditure for this group is $992 per person annually, meaning that the top 7% of Medicaid users cost almost seventy times as much per person as those in the bottom 79%.20 money.19 Rhode Island already has a managed care program that includes almost three-quarters of its Medicaid population. However, over half of the state’s Medicaid spending is on the 23% of people not covered by the program.20 In fact, Medicaid spending varies widely from person to person and is extremely concentrated among certain groups. In Rhode Island, approximately 7% of enrollees account for about 66% of Medicaid expenditures, costing an average of $66,396 per person in 2013.(l) Complex care management is a promising approach that focuses on controlling costs for these kinds of high-expenditure populations. In a complex care management program, a team of specialized social workers, nurses, and care managers identifies high-cost patients and determines what is driving their use of medical services. The team then works directly with these patients to manage and coordinate their care and reduce the incidence of hospitalization and emergency room visits. While complex care management takes concerted effort, recent research suggests that the costs may be worth it. One study of an initiative in St. Louis that included long-term, in-person oversight of care found that the program “reduced hospitalizations by 12% and monthly Medicare spending by $217 per enrollee – more than offsetting the program’s monthly $151 care management fee.”21 Camden, New Jersey’s “Camden Coalition” has served as a model of this type of cost control, as have programs at Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston that are designed to meet the needs of high-expenditure cases. Recent evidence from these programs suggests that emergency room visits by high-expenditure individuals dropped, as did overall costs for these patients.22 Fig.6 Distribution of Rhode Island Medicaid Spending Among Enrollees, 2013 Share of Users Annual Claims Expenditures per User Source: Rhode Island Executive Office of Health and Human Services18 7 The Collaborative | March 2015 Share of Expenditures The Economic Impact of Expanding Medicaid Is Rhode Island on the right track? Our research suggests that Rhode Island is on the right path in joining 27 other states to expand Medicaid coverage through the ACA. Increased health insurance coverage of the working-age population through government programs like Medicaid is associated with stronger GDP and employment growth. That said, Rhode Island currently spends more on Medicaid per enrollee than most states, and higher spending can drag down job growth. Decreasing the amount spent per person on health care would provide an opportunity for Rhode Island to fully harness the economic benefits of expanding health insurance coverage and address the state’s high unemployment rate. Massachusetts, which began health insurance reform in 2007, well before the rest of the country, can serve as a model. They decreased their uninsured rate from 10% in 2004 to 4% by 2012, largely by expanding Medicaid eligibility and increasing Medicaid enrollment from 17% in 2004 to 26% in 2010. Over that same time period, however, they reduced their Medicaid spending from $9,600 (similar to Rhode Island’s 2011 level) to $7,500 per enrollee.23 Rhode Island has begun to reduce its costs per Medicaid enrollee, at a rate of about 1.5% per year from 2009 to 2013.20 If the state can continue to make strides in expanding coverage and cutting costs, it can both improve the health of its citizens and grow its economy. The Collaborative | March 2015 8 WILL EXPANDING MEDICAID HELP THE ECONOMY? ENDNOTES 1. Congressional Budget Office (2012) “Updated Estimates for the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act,” and (2014) “Updated Estimates of the Effects of the Insurance Coverage Provisions of the Affordable Care Act,” Washington, DC. 2. Kaiser Family Foundation (2015) Status of State Action on the Medicaid Expansion Decision [data files]. 3. Kaiser Family Foundation (2014) Total Monthly Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment [data files]. 4. Dan Witters (2014) “Arkansas, Kentucky Report Sharpest Drops in Uninsured Rate,” Gallup, August 5. 5. Council of Economic Advisers ( 2009) The Economic Case for Health Care Reform, Washington, D.C.: Executive Office of the President. 6. Jack Hadley (2003) “Sicker and Poorer—The Consequences of Being Uninsured: A Review of the Research on the Relationship between Health Insurance, Medical Care Use, Health, Work, and Income,” Medical Care Research & Review, 60(2): 3S-75S. Sandra L. Decker, Jalpa A. Doshi, Amy E. Knaup, and Daniel Polsky (2012) “Health Service Use among the Previously Uninsured: Is Subsidized Health Insurance Enough?” Health Economics, 21(10): 1155–1168. 7. Marc Suhrcke & Dieter Urban (2010) “Are cardiovascular diseases bad for economic growth?,” Health Economics, 19(12): 1478-1496. 8. Kevin M. Murphy and Robert H. Topel (2006) “The Value of Health and Longevity,” Journal of Political Economy, 114(5): 871-904. 9. Jill Bernstein, Deborah Chollet, and Stephanie Peterson (2010) “How Does Insurance Coverage Improve Health Outcomes?” Mathematica Policy Research, Reforming Health Care Issue Brief, number 1. 10. Mark V. Pauly (2004) “Should We Be Worried About High Real Medical Spending Growth In The United States?” Health Affairs, 22(3, supp.): W3-15. 11. Kaiser Family Foundation (2014) “2014 Employer Health Benefits Survey,” Menlo Park, CA. 12. Katherine Baicker and Amitabh Chandra (2005) “The Labor Market Effects of Rising Health Insurance Premiums,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper, number 11160. Benjamin D. Sommers (2005) “Who Really Pays for Health Insurance? The Incidence of Employer-Provided Health Insurance with Sticky Nominal Wages,” International Journal of Health Care Finance and Economics, 5(1): 89-118. 13. Thomas J. Kane, Peter Orszag, David L. Gunter (2003) “State Fiscal Constraints and Higher Education Spending: The Role of Medicaid and the Business Cycle,” Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, Discussion Paper, number 11. Neeraj Sood, Arkadipta Ghosh, and J. Escarse (2007) “The Effect of Health Care Cost Growth on the US Economy,” Washington, D.C.: Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. 14. World Bank (2014) “Health Expenditure, total (% of GDP),” World Development Indicators [data files]. 15. Our data include many different types of health care spending in order to verify the relationship between different health care investments by the state and private entities and state economic growth. These include overall health care spending; specific spending for Medicaid, Medicare, and military health care by the government; and health care expenditures in the private market. 16. Kaiser Family Foundation (2013) Medicaid Coverage Rates for the Nonelderly by Age [data files]. 17. David U. Himmelstein, Deborah Thorne, Elizabeth Warren, and Steffie Woolhandler (2009) “Medical Bankruptcy in the United States, 2007: Results of a National Study,” The American Journal of Medicine, 122(8): 741–746. Ryan Jaslow (2012) “One-third of young adults face medical bill troubles, debt,” CBS News, June 8. 18. Kaiser Family Foundation (2011) Medicaid Spending per Enrollee (Full or Partial Benefit) [data files]. 19. Michael Sparer (2012) “Medicaid managed care: Costs, access, and quality of care,” Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Research Synthesis Report, number 23. 20. Rhode Island Executive Office of Health and Human Services (2014) “Rhode Island Annual Medicaid Expenditure Report,” Providence, RI. 21. Deborah Peikes, Greg Peterson, Randall S. Brown, Sandy Graff, and John P. Lynch (2012) “How changes in Washington University’s Medicare coordinated care demonstration pilot ultimately achieved savings,” Health Affairs, 31(6): 1216-1226. 22. Atul Gawande (2011) “The Hot Spotters,” New Yorker, January 24. 23. The Pew Charitable Trusts (2014) State Health Care Spending on Medicaid, 50 State Data [data files]. The Collaborative was developed in response to calls from the Governor’s office, public officials, and community leaders to leverage the research capacity of the state’s 11 colleges and universities and to provide non-partisan research for informed economic policy decisions. 50 Park Row West, Suite 100 Providence, RI 02903 www.collaborativeri.org Amber Caulkins Program Director [email protected] 401.588.1792 Following the Make It Happen RI economic development summit, the Rhode Island Foundation committed funding for the creation of the Collaborative. As a proactive community and philanthropic leader, the Foundation recognized the Collaborative as an opportunity for public and private sectors to work together to improve the quality of life for all Rhode Island residents. In FY 2013, the State of Rhode Island matched the Foundation’s funding, viewing the Collaborative as a cost-effective approach to leverage the talent and resources in the state for the development of sustainable economic policy. Rhode Island’s 11 colleges and universities agreed to partner with the Collaborative, and the presidents from each institution formed the Leadership Team. A Panel of Policy Leaders was appointed by the Governor’s office, the Rhode Island House of Representatives, and the Rhode Island Senate to represent both the executive branch and the legislative branch of state government. This panel is responsible for coming to consensus on research areas of importance to Rhode Island. PARTNERS Footnote is an online media outlet that expands the reach of academic expertise by translating it into accessible, engaging content for targeted audiences. It offers readers concise, compelling articles that highlight influential thought leadership from top colleges and universities. Footnote editor Diana Brazzell collaborated with the researchers on the writing and editing of this brief. www.footnote1.com Nami Studios is a creative services consultancy, offering strategic design for marketing, data visualization for communications, and interactive user experiences. Through our partnership with Nami Studios, we enhance our articles with enlightening and interactive visualizations of the research data. ADMINISTERED BY FUNDED BY The Association of Independent Colleges and Universities of Rhode Island is an alliance representing the eight independent institutions of higher learning within the State of Rhode Island. Designed to address common interests and concerns of independent colleges and universities within the state, the Association serves as the collective and unified voice of its member institutions. For questions and more information about the Collaborative, please visit collaborativeri.org 2015 REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS 2015 REGIONAL COMPETITIVENESS
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