Global Energy Trends
© OECD/IEA 2014
A wealth of Arctic energy resources
Statoil 2009
© OECD/IEA 2014
How do Arctic Resources Compare?
 Arctic undiscovered oil and gas resources estimated at 134 bn bbl
and 1,669 tcf respectively (USGS)
 Saudi Arabia alone has proved unproduced reserves at 266 bn
bbl and 291 tcf (O&G Journal, January 2014)
 Our analysis indicates that sufficient oil reserves exist to satisfy
our demand forecast outside of the Arctic
 Arctic investment will continue to be driven by strategic needs
rather than commercial
© OECD/IEA 2014
Changing dynamics of global demand
Energy demand by region
Mtoe 10 000
Rest of world
8 000
6 000
OECD
OECD
China
4 000
Rest of world
2 000
China
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
As China slows, then India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa &
Latin America take over as the engines of global energy demand growth.
© OECD/IEA 2014
Instability in the Middle East
a major risk to oil markets
Oil production growth
in United States, Canada, Brazil & the Middle East
mb/d +15
Increase to 2040: 14 mb/d
+10
Middle East
Increase to 2040:
14 mb/d
+5
Brazil
2013 2015
-5
2013 2015
2020
2030
2040 Canada
Net decline in output from other producers
2020
2030
United States
2040
The short-term picture of a well-supplied market should not obscure future risks as
demand rises to 104 mb/d & reliance
reliance grows
grows on
on Iraq
Iraq &
& the
the rest
rest of
of the
the Middle
Middle East
East
© OECD/IEA 2014
A changing energy mix
Fuel shares in world primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario
2012
13 361 Mtoe
2040
18 290 Mtoe
19%
14%
5%
29%
24%
Coal
Oil
7%
Gas
21%
Nuclear
31%
Renewables
24%
26%
The share of fossil fuels falls gradually through the Outlook period, though they
remain dominant in 2040, each accounting for roughly one-quarter of demand
© OECD/IEA 2014
Energy production by 2040
Change in energy production by region in the
New Policies Scenario, 2012-2040
Other non-OECD
Coal
Oil
China
Gas
Middle East
Nuclear
Other OECD
Renewables
India
United States
Russia
OECD Europe
-300
0
300
600
900
1 200
1 500
1 800
Mtoe
Worldwide production of all types of modern energy increases over the projection
period in the New Policies Scenario
© OECD/IEA 2014
Crude oil imports in Asia
Asian imports versus Middle Eastern exports of crude oil in the
New Policies Scenario
mb/d 30
Export:
Middle East
25
Import:
Other Asia
20
India
China
15
10
5
2013
2040
Asia’s crude oil import needs have caught up with volumes available from the
Middle East, and it imports 7.7 mb/d of crude from the rest of the world by 2040
© OECD/IEA 2014
China and the Middle East the key
sources of gas demand growth
Natural gas demand by region
bcm 1 000
Additional
to 2040
2012
800
600
400
200
United
States
Middle
East
China
Latin
European Russia
America
Union
Africa
India
Gas demand growth in China & the Middle East alone, driven largely by the priority
to diversify the fuel mix for power, is more than double the rise in total OECD gas use
© OECD/IEA 2014
Share of LNG grows in global gas trade
Main sources of regional LNG supply
bcm 600
Other
West Africa
500
North Africa
Russia
400
East Africa
300
200
Other
North Africa
Australia
West Africa
US & Canada
Australia
Southeast Asia
100
Middle East
Middle East
2012
2040
A near-tripling in liquefaction sites boosts the role of LNG, bringing more
integrated & secure gas markets, but only limited relief on prices
© OECD/IEA 2014
Natural gas: towards a globalised market
Major global gas trade flows, 2010
2040
Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows,
putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms
© OECD/IEA 2014
Conclusions
 Geopolitical & market uncertainties are set to propel energy
security high up the global energy agenda
 Volatility in the Middle East can spell trouble for investment &
future oil supply
 Factors on both the supply & demand side are pushing gas towards
a higher share in the global energy mix
 But the investment case cannot be taken for granted: gas faces stiff
competition, large policy & pricing uncertainties
 For the period to 2040, few new developments projected in Arctic
beyond those already announced
© OECD/IEA 2014