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3. stocks

Morning Notes
LKP Advisory
13-Apr-2015
FII's & DII's in equity
Indices
10-Apr
9-Apr
% Chg.
Major Indices
10-Apr
9-Apr
% Chg.
S&P BSE SENSEX
28,879
28,885
-0.02%
CAC 40 Index
5,240
5,209
0.60%
10-Apr
8,780
8,778
0.02%
DAX Index
12,375
12,166
1.71%
FII / FPI Investments
S&P CNX NIFTY
Rs.Crs
Buy
Sell
Net
4,824
4461
363
1671
1807
-135
S&P BSE MID CAP
11,093
11,050
0.39%
Dow Jones Industrial A
18,058
17,959
0.55%
DII's Investments
S&P BSE SMALL CA
11,846
11,717
1.10%
FTSE 100 Index
7,090
7,015
1.06%
FII's contribution to the total turnover
41%
Nasdaq Composite Ind
4,996
4,975
0.43%
DII's contribution to the total turnover
16%
BSE Sectoral Indices
FII's in Derivatives
1,787
1,774
0.74%
Major Asian Indices
10-Apr
9-Apr
% Chg.
10,085
10,012
0.72%
Hong Kong
27,272
26,944
1.22%
S&P BSE PSU
7,969
7,916
0.67%
Nikkei 225
19,908
19,938
-0.15%
Net
S&P BSE POWER
2,214
2,201
0.57%
Korea
2,088
2,059
1.40%
OI
S&P BSE OIL & GAS
9,679
9,633
0.48%
Shanghai
4,034
3,958
1.94%
Chg.OI
S&P BSE TECk
6,415
6,384
0.48%
Taiwan
9,618
9,568
0.52%
FIIs' contribution to the total Derivatives turnove
S&P BSE FMCG
8,272
8,239
0.40%
S&P BSE CONSUMER D
10,871
10,835
0.33%
Commodities (MCX)
10-Apr
9-Apr
% Chg.
10-Apr
9-Apr
S&P BSE AUTO
19,809
19,753
0.28%
Aluminium (30APR2015
110
110
0.18%
USDINR 28-APR-2015
62.52
62.46
0.09%
S&P BSE IT
11,644
11,616
0.24%
Copper (30APR2015)
377
376
0.19%
EURINR 28-APR-2015
66.19
67.27
-1.61%
S&P BSE HEALTHCARE
18,161
18,195
-0.19%
Crude (20APR2015)
3,220
3,215
0.16%
JPYINR 28-APR-2015
51.93
52.07
-0.27%
S&P BSE CAPITAL GOO
17,725
17,780
-0.31%
Gold (5JUN2015)
26,781
26,521
0.98%
FTSE100 (17-APR-2015
7027
6950
1.11%
S&P BSE BANKEX
21,611
21,687
-0.35%
Silver (5MAY015)
36,713
36,283
1.19%
S&P500 (17-APR-2015)
2089
2076
0.60%
S&P BSE REALTY
LTP
Chg % Chg
IDEA
196
8
4.3
SSLT
202
7
3.5
NMDC
135
3
2.1
IDFC
176
4
2.1
HINDALCO
SBIN
286
5
1.8
Company
LTP
Top Losers
CNX Nifty
Company
RCOM
72
9
13.4
GMRINFRA
19
2
8.7
HINDZINC
174
10
6.0
TATAGLOBAL
Top Losers
BSE 100
Chg % Chg
Company
LTP
Chg % Chg
CIPLA
700
-19
-2.7
ZEEL
348
-9
-2.5
LUPIN
1974
-42
-2.1
138
-2
-1.6
TECHM
660
-10
-1.5
Company
LTP
CIPLA
700
-19
ZEEL
348
-9
-2.5
LUPIN
1965
-50
-2.5
Chg % Chg
-2.7
161
9
6.0
JINDALSTEL
158
-3
-2.1
RPOWER
61
3
5.1
SRTRANSFIN
1136
-21
-1.8
Company
LTP
NETWORK18
64
9
17.0
KEC
97
11
13.1
765
68
9.7
19
2
8.7
VGUARD
1023
78
8.3
Company
LTP
VIVIDHA
1342
224
20.0
226
38
20.0
13
2
19.7
CENTENKA
193
28
17.2
SAGCEM
399
55
15.9
CENTURYTEX
GMRINFRA
IMFA
CRESSAN
Company
Top Losers
BSE Midcap
Chg % Chg
PSITINFRA
Chg % Chg
LTP
Chg % Chg
41
-2
-5.0
RELAXO
723
-28
-3.7
INDHOTEL
112
-4
-3.7
GDL
371
-13
-3.5
1639
-57
-3.4
HITACHIHOM
Company
Top Losers
BSE Smallcap
Top Gainers
BSE Smallcap
Top Gainers
BSE Midcap
Top Gainers
BSE 100
Top Gainers
CNX Nifty
S&P BSE METAL
ASTAR
LTP
Chg % Chg
1030
-120
-10.4
SVGLOBAL
146
-16
-9.7
LIFELINE
200
-14
-6.5
AMMLTD
645
-45
-6.5
23
-1
-5.4
HCIL
10-Apr
Rs.Crs
Index Fut Index Opt Stock Fut Stock Opt
-214
633
-359
109
16347
63703
56491
2545
0.7%
2.2%
0.5%
10.0%
Futures (NSE)
17%
% Chg.
Domestic Market View
Markets to make a positive start reacting to good
IIP data
The Indian markets had closed flat in last session
ahead of key macro data of IIP. Today, the start of the
holiday truncated week is likely to be in green and
traders will be reacting positively to the data of
industrial output for the month of February which
came in at 5%, its fastest pace in nine months.
However, there will be some cautiousness too with
the CPI data for March slated to be announced after
the market hours, though all eyes this week will be on
corporate performance of big companies like TCS and
Reliance Industries. Traders will also be getting some
support with Prime Minister Narendra Modi wooing
German investors said that opportunities in India are
“seamless” and huge for a vibrant economic
partnership. He also assured that ‘Invest India’ has
been set up and country desks in it that will be
networked to the states, he said that we will nurture
innovation and protect intellectual property. There is
likely to be buzz in the banking stocks with SBI
announcing revised rates on its home loans, making
them the cheapest in the market. This rate reduction
follows the cut in its base rate on April 7. Aviation
stocks too may see some action, as Civil Aviation
Minister Ashok Gajapathi Raju, Pitching for lower
taxes to boost civil aviation has said that said states
which responded positively to the Centre's request in
this regard have witnessed a spurt in the sector.
Domestic Market OverView
Benchmarks witness consolidation ahead of February IIP data
Indian equity benchmarks witnessed consolidation on Friday after five days of continuous rally as
traders remained on sidelines ahead of the key macro data of IIP. Index of Industrial Production (IIP)
data for February slated to be released today is expected to inch higher to 3.5-3.6 percent due to
favourable base impact. Earlier, markets after a positive start entered into red terrain as investors
opted to book profits after five days winning streak and extended their downfall to touch intraday
lows. The indices even went on to test important psychological 28,750 (Sensex) and 8,750 (Nifty)
levels, but the key gauges got solid support around those intraday low levels and staged a smart
recovery in last leg of trade to end the session mixed, pairing almost all of their early losses
Some support came in from report that Fitch retained India’s credit outlook at ‘stable’ saying although
“dynamism” is back in the economy, translation of reforms into higher growth would depend upon
actual implementation. It has also raised its forecasts for real GDP growth to 8 percent for current
financial year and further to 8.3 percent in 2016-17. Meanwhile, with rating agencies Fitch and
Moody’s affirming India’s credit outlook as “stable” and “positive” respectively, industry body Ficci
has said that the move will uplift investor sentiment and help attract foreign investments. In other
positive development,
Sentiments also got some support from report that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares
worth a net Rs 193.81 crore and Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought shares worth a net Rs
492.79 crore on April 9, as per provisional data. Rally in auto stocks too aided the sentiments after
Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) said domestic passenger car sales grew 2.64%
to 1,76,011 units in March, from 1,71,491 units in the same month of last year. Telecom stocks too
edged higher despite TRAI slashing ceiling tariffs for national roaming. Through this amendment
order, the Authority has removed the existing mandate to the TSPs for providing Roaming Tariff Plan
(RTP) and Roaming Tariff Plan Free (RTP FR) and has mandated the TSPs to offer a Special
Roaming Tariff Plan to its pre-paid and post-paid subscribers
Global Market Overview
Asian markets end mostly in green on Friday
The Asian markets closed mostly in green on Friday, with Chinese indices closing up, as gains in the
Life Insurance, Technology Hardware & Equipment and Media sectors led shares higher. China’s
auto sales rose 3.3% year-on-year to 2.24 million vehicles in March rebounding from a holiday
slowdown.
US markets closed higher on Friday
The US market closed higher on Friday as sentiments remained up-beat on report of General
Electric’s (GE) restructuring of GE Capital, with the diversified conglomerate jumping by 10.8 percent
to its best closing level in well over six years. The rally by GE came after the company announced
plans to reduce the size of its financial businesses and sell most assets of GE Capital for about
$26.5 billion. The company also announced a $50 billion stock repurchase program. Though, the
gains remained capped with traders staying on the sidelines as they wait for earnings season to pick
up steam next week. On the economic front, the Labor Department released a report before the start
of trading showing a pullback in U.S. import prices in the month of March. The Labor Department
said import prices dipped by 0.3 percent in March after edging up by a revised 0.2 percent in
February. The pullback in prices were in-line with the street estimates. Meanwhile, the report also
said export prices inched up by 0.1 percent in March following a revised 0.2 percent drop in the
previous month. The street had expected export prices to slip by 0.2 percent.
The Dow Jones added 98.92 points or 0.55 percent to 18,057.65, Nasdaq was up by 21.41 points or
0.43 percent to 4,995.98 while, S&P 500 was higher by 10.88 points or 0.52 percent to 2,102.06.
LKP Advisory
Index Futures
Total Open Interest
Future
Chg
Spot
Chg
Prem /
10-Apr
(%)
10-Apr
(%)
Disc
NIFTY
8,811
0.00
8,780
0.02
31.1
CNXIT
12,330
0.10
12,295
0.13
35.0
14
-1.5
BANKNIFTY
18,865
-1.12
18,801
-0.40
63.9
1,784
-2.5
(OI in '000 Shares)
10-Apr
20,031
Chg (%)
0.3
Increasing OI, Increasing Delivery Qty & Increasing Price in Stock Futures (Open Interest in '000 Shares)
Symbol
Total OI
10-Apr % Chg.
DISHTV
27,520
26%
32,919,637
64%
38%
31,967,785
85
86
0.4%
0.2%
0.3
VOLTAS
6,380
11%
941,044
24%
43%
232,501
306
308
4.3%
4.4%
1.8
TATAGLOBAL
Del Qty Cash Market
10-Apr
% Del.
Prev
% Del.
Increase
Del Qty
Spot
(Rs.)
Fut
(Rs.)
Spot
Chg (%.)
Fut
Chg (%.)
Prem /
Disc
36,652
9%
3,190,584
44%
19%
2,744,647
161
162
6.0%
6.0%
1.0
PETRONET
3,092
7%
515,231
62%
23%
227,039
186
185
0.4%
0.1%
-0.8
GMRINFRA
166,206
5%
11,264,494
28%
13%
8,921,693
19
19
8.7%
8.6%
0.1
21,844
4%
1,869,226
10%
12%
488,472
137
138
2.1%
2.1%
0.8
3,139
4%
369,396
38%
17%
93,652
871
877
0.8%
0.9%
5.2
-4.1
HDIL
GLENMARK
GODREJIND
1,620
4%
143,047
25%
31%
46,433
382
378
3.6%
4.5%
SKSMICRO
6,564
3%
412,808
22%
25%
54,319
510
513
1.0%
1.0%
3.3
IBREALEST
42,588
3%
1,071,131
16%
13%
56,842
72
72
1.1%
1.3%
0.5
Spot
(Rs.)
Fut
(Rs.)
Spot
Chg (%.)
Fut
Chg (%.)
Prem /
Disc
13.3
Increasing OI, Increasing Delivery Qty & Decreasing Price, (Open Interest in '000 Shares)
Symbol
Total OI
10-Apr % Chg.
Del Qty Cash Market
10-Apr
% Del.
Prev
% Del.
Increase in
Del Qty
LUPIN
4,528
10%
1,828,781
73%
75%
673,036
1964
1978
-2.6%
-2.4%
SRTRANSFIN
1,053
7%
272,048
65%
24%
70,558
1136
1142
-1.8%
-1.8%
5.9
APOLLOTYRE
14,156
7%
1,868,075
52%
41%
680,577
180
182
-0.8%
-0.7%
1.1
1,903
6%
703,738
77%
71%
508,711
599
602
-0.6%
-0.7%
3.2
JINDALSTEL
CESC
28,035
5%
3,164,936
45%
19%
1,255,815
157
158
-2.2%
-2.3%
1.0
ONGC
25,627
4%
4,341,521
71%
64%
1,531,533
310
312
-0.1%
-0.2%
1.9
BIOCON
5,207
3%
678,520
32%
60%
322,169
467
470
-0.4%
-0.2%
2.8
ADANIENT
6,362
1%
184,729
17%
10%
64,025
638
641
-0.3%
-0.1%
2.8
CIPLA
9,046
1%
780,192
34%
29%
138,236
701
704
-2.5%
-2.4%
2.8
Open Interest Break-up
(Rs. in Cr.)
10-Apr
09-Apr
Change in OI
% Chg
INDEX FUTURES
21,110
21,159
-49
-0.23
INDEX OPTIONS
107,890
105,682
2,207
2.09
TOTAL INDEX
129,000
126,841
2,159
1.70
STOCK FUTURES
68,363
67,747
617
0.91
STOCK OPTIONS
14,200
13,177
1,023
7.76
TOTAL STOCKS
82,563
80,924
1,639
2.03
GRAND TOTAL
211,563
207,765
3,798
1.83
FII's
139,087
137,096
1990
1.45
72,476
70,668
1808
2.56
Others
LKP Advisory
Corporate News
¾
Sesa Sterlite has reported a decline in production of oil and gas, zinc and iron ore for the financial year 2014-15. However, the
output of copper, aluminium and power business rose during the fiscal that ended on March 31, as compared to the year-ago
period.
¾
Global rating agency, Fitch has reaffirmed ‘BB+’ rating with ‘stable’ credit outlook to Tata Steel. The company has received the said
rating as its highly profitable India operations is improving company’s financial position.
¾
JSW Steel has reportedly opted flexible pricing policy for its long products used largely in real estate and infrastructure projects
from the current practice of fixing it on monthly basis. The company is now willing to change long product prices on a daily basis
against the industry practice of fixing it on a monthly or fortnightly basis.
¾
Reliance Industries (RIL) has successful commissioned new Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) plant at Dahej, Gujarat. The plant
with a capacity of 1150 KTA is built with Invista technology and this state-of-the-art facility is highly energy efficient and
environment friendly. With the commissioning of this plant, Reliance’s total PTA capacity will increase to 3.2 MMTPA and global
capacity share to 4%.
¾
Hindustan Copper has received its board’s approval to form Joint Venture Company (JVC) with Chhattisgarh Mineral
Development Corporation (CMDC), a Government of Chhattisgarh Enterprise. In this regard the company will invest Rs 10 crore in
the equity capital of JVC to explore and develop new copper mines in the State of Chattisgarh.
¾
Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL) is planning to team up with Government of Punjab to manage and run 32 Driving Training Institutes in
the State. The institutes will offer high quality driving training, using driving simulators, class room instruction and practical training.
¾
Modern India has received permission for commissioning 5 mega watt (MW) Solar Power Plant in Satara of which 3MW plant has
been set up. The company is expected to receive commissioning certificate soon.
¾
Aurobindo Pharma has divested its step-down subsidiary, Aurobindo Pharma (Australia) to Eris Pharma Australia. The pharma
major will however under an agreement continue to manufacture and supply the products to Eris Pharma for Australian and New
Zealand market over next few years.
¾
Global rating agency, Moody’s has downgraded local currency bank deposit ratings and senior unsecured ratings of Axis Bank on
a change in its fundamental view about government support to such instruments.
¾
Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers (TNPL) is planning to set up a 30 mega watt (MW) power plant. In this regard, the company
will invest around Rs 150 crore. The proposed project will cater to the upcoming Rs 1,500 crore multilayer paper board
manufacturing plant, which is expected to be ready by the end of 2015.
¾
Leading air cooler company Symphony has entered the league of firms with market capitalisation is more than the Rs 10,000
crore. The company’s market capitalisation touched a high of Rs 10,108.78 crore and on closing basis it was Rs. 10,040.75 crore
on April 9, 2015.
¾
Reliance Capital Mutual Fund has bought 13 lakh shares of Inox Wind through the open market route. The shares were purchased
on an average price of Rs 410.29 valuing the transaction to Rs 53.34 crore. Furthermore, RG Capital Growth Funds has bought
12.39 lakh shares in the company for an average price of Rs 429.88, through open market route valuing the transaction at Rs 53.26
crore.
¾
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have increased their stake in Redington (India) in Q4FY15 by 211 basis points to 39.38
percent at the end of March 2015 quarter from 37.27 percent as on December 31, 2014. On the other hand, domestic institutional
investors (DIIs) increased their stake by 5 basis points to 12.64 percent at the end of March 2015 quarter from 12.59 percent as on
December 31, 2014.
LKP Advisory
¾
Global rating agency, Moody’s has downgraded local currency bank deposit ratings and senior unsecured ratings of HDFC Bank
on a change in its fundamental view about government support to such instruments.
¾
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have increased shareholding in Lupin to 34.69% at the end of March 2015 quarter from
31.77% in December 31, 2014. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have reduced shareholding in the
company to 8.67% at the end of March 2015 quarter from 10.73% as on December 31, 2014. Meanwhile, Non Institutions were
holding 10.01 percent stake at the end of March 2015 quarter, down 83 basis points from 10.84 percent as on December 31, 2014.
¾
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have increased their stake in Muthoot Finance in Q4FY15 by 132 basis points to 5.1 percent
at the end of March 2015 quarter from 3.78 percent as on December 31, 2014. On the other hand, foreign institutional investors
(FIIs) have reduced their shareholding by 202 basis points to 11.05 percent at the end of March 2015 quarter from 13.07 percent as
on December 31, 2014.
¾
Wipro, a leading global information technology, consulting and business process services company, and GK Software AG, a
leading technology developer and provider of standard software for the retail sector, have entered into a partnership to achieve fast
and flexible implementations of SAP Store Management applications by GK, for customers across the world.
¾
Global rating agency, Moody’s has downgraded local currency bank deposit ratings and senior unsecured ratings of ICICI Bank on
a change in its fundamental view about government support to such instruments.
¾
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have increased their shareholding in BEML in Q4FY15 by 270 basis points to 6.74 percent at
the end of March 2015 quarter from 4.04 percent as on December 31, 2014. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors
(DIIs) shareholding decreased by 390 basis points to 20.07 percent at the end of March 2015 quarter from 23.97 percent as on
December 31, 2014.
¾
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have raised their stake in Federal Bank in Q4FY15 by 471 basis points to 32.9 percent at the
end of March 2015 quarter from 28.19 percent as on December 31, 2014. On the other hand, foreign institutional investors (FIIs)
shareholding decreased by 334 basis points to 35.6 percent at the end of March 2015 quarter from 38.94 percent as on December
31, 2014.
¾
IDFC, leading integrated infrastructure finance player, will commence its banking operations on October 1 with few branches. The
company has received shareholders approval for demerger of its financial undertaking into IDFC Bank. Each IDFC shareholder will
get 1 share of IDFC Bank.
¾
Max India has received Competition Commission of India’s (CCI) approval for its proposed corporate restructuring plan to vertically
split the company through a demerger into three separate listed firms, including one for life insurance.
¾
Neyveli Lignite Corporation (NLC) has inked a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Japan-based Kobe Steel (KSL) for
setting up upgraded brown coal-based pilot power generation project. The signing of MoU between the two companies was against
the backdrop of the satisfactory completion of pilot study taken last year.
¾
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals’ subsidiary - Glenmark Generics Inc., USA (Glenmark) has been granted final approval by the United
States Food & Drug Administration (USFDA) for the oral contraceptive, Levonorgestrel/Ethinyl Estradiol Tablets USP, 0.09 mg/0.02
mg, the therapeutic equivalent of Lybrel of Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (which is no longer being marketed in the United States).
¾
Induslnd Bank has entered into an agreement with Royal Bank of Scotland N.V. (RBS) to acquire its Diamond and Jewellery
financing business in India and related deposit portfolio; subject to regulatory approval. This is part of ABN AMRO Bank N.V.’s
Diamond & Jewellery Clients that is housed in Royal Bank of Scotland N.V. acting through its Mumbai branch in India. The Royal
Bank of Scotland N.V. Diamond and Jewellery financing loan book is approximately Rs 4,500 crore in size.
¾
Biocon, Asia’s premier biopharmaceuticals company, has received an approval for its Insulin Glargine by COFEPRIS, the Mexican
health authority, through its partner PiSA Farmaceutica (PiSA). Mexico has been a very important market for Biocon since 2006,
LKP Advisory
where it has been playing a significant role in enabling access to affordable rh-Insulin. Insulin Glargine will augment the affordable
insulins therapy for diabetes management.
¾
Neyveli Lignite Corporation’s (NLC) Unit II of 500MW of Tuticorin Power Project of NLC Tamil Nadu Power, the subsidiary
company has been test synchronized with the grid on April 09, 2015.
.Economy
¾
February IIP expands at fastest pace in nine months; grows at 5% v/s -2% Y-o-Y
Clocking its fastest pace in nine months, the index for industrial output (IIP) for the month of February came in at 5%, way higher
than street expectation of a number of around 3.50% and also higher compared to 2.6% in January mainly on account of splendid
growth of capital goods and consumer goods sector. The IIP staged a contraction of -2% in February, 2014. The cumulative growth
for the period April-February 2014-15 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 2.8%. Encouragingly, January
IIP growth too was revised upwards to 2.8% v/s 2.6%.
The Indices of Industrial Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of February 2015 stand at
130.7, 192.9 and 166.0 respectively, with the corresponding growth rates of 2.5%, 5.2% and 5.9% as compared to February 2014.
The indices for Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of January 2015 at (-) 2.8%, 3.3% and 2.7%
respectively. The cumulative growth in the three sectors during April-February 2014-15 over the corresponding period of 2013-14
has been 1.5%, 2.2% and 9.1% respectively.
As per Use-based classification, the growth rates in February 2015 over February 2014 are 5.0% in Basic goods, 8.8% in Capital
goods and 1.1% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of (-) 3.4%
and 10.7% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 5.2%.
Notably, the IIP data which has been positive since November is indicative of green-shoots for the economy. However, the bigbump in the macro data is mainly on account of lower base of February 2014 and the data for the month of March now holds the
key since this would confirm if the economy is out of woods.
The government plans to release industrial output data based on a new methodology and use a different base year for calculating
the index in the next few months. The industrial output data with “2004/05” as base year has become less relevant now after the
government changed the methodology as well as the base year for GDP calculations in February. The revised base year for GDP
is “2011/12”.
¾
India's urea imports rose by 23% to 87.49 lakh tonnes in FY15
India's urea imports rose by 23% to 87.49 lakh tonnes last fiscal on higher demand. The country, which is among the world's top
three consumers of urea, imported 70.88 LT of the fertilizer in 2013-14. Overall, the country produces about 22 million tonnes urea
as against the annual domestic demand of 30 MT. The country's urea imports had dipped 12% to 7.08 MT in 2013-14 due to carryover stocks from the previous year. It had imported 8.04 MT of urea in the entire 2012-13 fiscal.
Urea is imported by three state trading enterprises (STEs), Indian Potash, MMTC and STC on behalf of the government to meet
domestic shortfall. The government also imports fertilizer through OMIFCO, which is a joint venture project of IFFCO and Kribhco,
with an off-take agreement.
Though, STEs imported urea at average price of about $300 per tonne, lower than the previous year's average price of about $322
per tonne, urea shipped by OMIFCO is much cheaper than STEs' soil nutrient.
¾
Upgrade in outlook significant but the government needs to do more: Arun Jaitley
Encouraged by the outlook upgrade of the Indian economy by the global credit rating agency Moody’s, Finance Minister Arun
Jaitley has said that though upgrade in outlook is significant but the government will have to do more.
LKP Advisory
Moody’s changed its rating outlook for India to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’, with possibility of rating upgrade in the next 12-18 months.
The agency said favourable demographics, economic diversity as well as high savings and investment rates would act as a
structural advantage for India. Besides, relatively benign global commodity prices and liquidity conditions will keep India’s growth
higher. India’s sovereign rating currently stands at ‘Baa3’, the lowest investment grade - just a notch above ‘junk’ status.
Earlier, Minister for State for Finance Jayant Sinha had said that the decision of Moody’s Investors Service to change India’s
outlook to ‘positive’ merely reaffirmed the faith that domestic and international investors have put in India’s growth outlook and
financial strength. ”The Moody’s decision continues to reaffirm the faith that rating agencies, global investors and our own domestic
businesses have in India’s growth outlook and financial strength as a sovereign as well. The macro-economic situation over the
past 10 months or so, while we have been in office has improved dramatically due to the actions that we have taken, as far as fiscal
policy and reforms are concerned.
¾
India to continue to witness growth: OECD
Paris-based think tank Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) underscored that India's economic
growth continues to expand even as growth has started easing in the neighboring China. The think tank's assessment is based on
its Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) that are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend. Notably,
the development comes a day after Moody’s Investors Service, expressing optimism in the efforts of the new government and the
Reserve Bank of India, raised the rating outlook of the country to “positive”.
CLIs signaled that growth was easing in China and Canada, albeit from relatively high levels, while it pointed to loss in growth
momentum in Brazil and Russia. However, for India the indicator pointed to firming growth. Notably, India's CLI has been on the
rise since October 2014 and touched 99.5 in February this year. On the basis of new GDP series, the Indian economy is estimated
to grow at 7.4% this fiscal, which would also make India the fastest growing large economy in the world. Further, the growth is
expected to accelerate as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is pegged at 8-8.5% in 2015-16. In a sign of encouragement, the Union
Budget for 2015-16, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, in February, had said 'aiming for a double-digit rate seems feasible very soon.
¾
Fitch retains India's credit outlook at ‘stable’
A day after global credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded its outlook for the Indian economy to 'positive' from 'stable', another rating
agency Fitch has retained India's credit outlook at 'stable' saying although 'dynamism' is back in the economy translation of reforms
into higher growth would depend upon actual implementation. However, the global rating agency said that India’s sovereign ratings
are constrained by limited improvement in its fiscal position, which is a longstanding key weakness.
Following recent revisions to the GDP data, Fitch has also raised its forecasts for real GDP growth to 8.0% in the financial year
ending 31 March 2016 (FY16) and 8.3% in FY17, compared with 7.4% GDP growth in FY15. Fitch's earlier forecasts for FY16 and
FY17 were 6.5% and 6.8%, respectively, based on the old series of data. The significantly higher official real GDP growth numbers
after the revision by the Central Statistical Office suggest the data include more economic activity than is actually taking place.
The rating agency also noted that the new monetary policy framework agreement based on inflation targeting seems to show the
government and RBI's strong resolve to structurally lower inflation. Both the RBI's monetary policy and the government's policies
that affect food prices, including the setting of minimum support prices for agricultural products, will strongly influence whether the
target will be reached.
Source: Reuters, Ace Equity & LKP Research
LKP Advisory
Tech View
CNX Nifty
Technical View
Nifty was seen facing resistance near 8800 levels but managed to avert major downside on Friday’s trade. The index is expected to
continue facing difficulty crossing 8800 levels and unless this level is sustained further upsides till 9000 will be difficult. However, the
fact that RSI has not yet entered overbought zones and stable market breadth indicates that a small consolidation at these levels may
actually favor the markets in near term. Nifty is comfortably trading above its 50 DMA placed at 8720 levels and till the time this is not
breached any major short term dip can be ruled out. The index is expected to open on flat note and may try to cross 8800 levels but if it
fails to do so then a small intraday dip can be seen.
IMPORTANT LEVELS FOR THE DAY
Support
BSE
NSE
BANKNIFTY
S1
28,755
8734
18701
S2
28,639
8693
18570
R1
28,941
8800
18913
R2
29,057
8841
19045
Pivot
28,848
8,767
18,807
Resistance
.
LKP Advisory
Tech View
PIVOT POINTS
Scrip Name
CMP
RB2
RB1
PP
SB1
SB2
ACC
Scrip Name
CMP
RB2
RB1
PP
SB1
SB2
1636
1673
1652
1635
1617
1596
GAIL
399
409
403
398
394
388
ADANIENT
638
659
646
635
625
611
GLENMARK
871
909
886
868
850
828
ADANIPORTS
320
333
325
319
313
305
GMRINFRA
19
21
19
18
17
16
ADANIPOWER
50
52
51
50
49
47
GODREJIND
382
404
389
378
366
351
ALBK
105
109
106
104
102
99
GRASIM
3793
3855
3815
3783
3751
3711
AMBUJACEM
258
263
260
258
255
252
HAVELLS
293
303
296
291
285
278
ANDHRABANK
82
84
83
82
81
80
HCLTECH
967
997
980
967
954
937
APOLLOHOSP
1396
1441
1412
1388
1364
1335
HDFC
1290
1330
1310
1294
1278
1258
APOLLOTYRE
180
185
183
181
179
177
HDFCBANK
1043
1069
1055
1044
1032
1018
ARVIND
283
295
288
283
278
271
HDIL
137
144
140
136
132
128
ASHOKLEY
75
77
76
75
75
74
2584
2662
2625
2595
2564
2527
ASIANPAINT
859
880
866
855
843
829
HEXAWARE
331
342
335
328
322
315
1343
1381
1356
1335
1314
1289
HINDALCO
138
141
139
138
137
135
568
582
575
569
564
556
HINDPETRO
663
689
677
667
657
645
2099
2133
2112
2094
2077
2055
HINDUNILVR
934
956
941
929
917
902
BANKBARODA
174
179
176
173
171
167
HINDZINC
174
186
178
171
165
157
BANKINDIA
219
226
221
217
213
208
IBREALEST
72
76
74
72
70
68
BATAINDIA
1158
1193
1171
1154
1137
1115
ICICIBANK
318
325
322
319
316
313
BHARATFORG
1332
1362
1345
1331
1318
1300
IDBI
76
79
77
76
74
72
BHARTIARTL
412
426
417
409
401
392
IDEA
196
207
200
193
187
179
BHEL
235
242
238
235
232
228
IDFC
176
182
179
176
174
171
BIOCON
467
498
483
471
459
444
IFCI
36
36
36
36
35
35
BPCL
820
849
833
819
806
789
IGL
423
432
426
422
418
412
CAIRN
223
228
225
223
221
219
INDIACEM
108
116
112
108
105
101
CANBK
393
406
398
393
387
380
INDUSINDBK
945
966
954
944
934
922
AUROPHARMA
AXISBANK
BAJAJ-AUTO
HEROMOTOCO
CENTURYTEX
764
852
793
745
697
637
INFY
2234
2266
2245
2227
2210
2189
CESC
599
614
607
601
594
587
IOB
45
46
46
45
44
44
CIPLA
701
734
717
704
690
673
IOC
375
386
380
376
371
365
COALINDIA
389
396
392
388
384
379
IRB
260
277
268
260
252
243
2143
2211
2179
2152
2125
2093
ITC
347
353
349
346
342
338
CROMPGREAV
176
181
178
176
174
171
JINDALSTEL
157
168
163
159
155
150
DABUR
280
289
284
280
276
271
JISLJALEQS
67
70
68
66
65
62
DISHTV
85
89
87
85
83
81
JPASSOCIAT
26
28
27
26
25
25
1938
1985
1958
1935
1913
1885
JPPOWER
11
11
11
11
10
10
158
165
162
159
157
153
JSWENERGY
120
123
121
120
119
117
DRREDDY
3797
3911
3833
3771
3708
3630
JSWSTEEL
952
993
970
952
934
911
EXIDEIND
189
195
192
189
187
184
JUBLFOOD
1608
1681
1642
1610
1578
1539
FEDERALBNK
129
133
131
129
128
126
JUSTDIAL
1325
1390
1359
1334
1309
1277
COLPAL
DIVISLAB
DLF
LKP Advisory
Tech View
Scrip Name
CMP
RB2
RB1
PP
SB1
SB2
Scrip Name
CMP
RB2
RB1
PP
SB1
SB2
KOTAKBANK
1422
1460
1441
1425
1409
1389
TATACHEM
450
463
457
451
446
439
128
132
130
129
127
125
TATACOMM
451
465
458
451
445
437
66
68
66
65
64
63
TATAGLOBAL
161
173
165
159
152
144
461
479
469
462
455
446
TATAMOTORS
563
582
571
563
554
543
KTKBANK
L&TFH
LICHSGFIN
LT
1764
1803
1781
1764
1747
1725
TATAMTRDVR
351
366
356
348
339
329
LUPIN
1964
2076
2024
1983
1941
1889
TATAPOWER
79
81
80
79
78
77
M&M
1287
1314
1296
1281
1266
1248
TATASTEEL
343
355
349
344
340
334
M&MFIN
269
278
273
270
266
261
2654
2710
2677
2651
2624
2592
MARUTI
3667
3739
3697
3663
3629
3587
TECHM
660
688
674
663
651
637
MCDOWELL-N
3902
4166
4036
3931
3826
3696
TITAN
MCLEODRUSS
253
263
257
253
249
244
41327
42457
41694
41076
40458
39694
NHPC
21
21
21
21
20
20
NMDC
135
141
137
134
131
127
MRF
NTPC
156
163
159
156
153
150
OFSS
3353
3439
3394
3358
3321
3276
ONGC
310
321
316
312
307
ORIENTBANK
221
233
225
218
PETRONET
186
192
188
185
392
1058
68
70
69
68
67
66
2969
3054
3009
2973
2936
2891
161
166
164
161
159
156
18
18
17
17
461
453
444
302
VOLTAS
306
322
311
302
293
282
211
203
WIPRO
618
628
623
618
614
608
182
178
YESBANK
843
861
851
844
836
827
ZEEL
347
366
357
350
342
333
293
288
283
278
167
163
159
154
POWERGRID
153
156
154
152
150
148
79
82
80
79
78
76
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
72
86
77
70
62
54
RECLTD
344
357
349
342
335
326
RELCAPITAL
456
486
468
454
439
421
RELIANCE
904
928
913
901
889
874
RELINFRA
474
513
489
469
450
425
RPOWER
61
67
63
61
58
55
SAIL
75
79
76
74
73
70
SBIN
286
294
289
284
280
274
SIEMENS
1447
1510
1480
1455
1431
1401
SRTRANSFIN
1136
1188
1162
1142
1121
1095
202
213
206
200
194
187
1120
1157
1134
1116
1097
1074
SUNTV
391
404
397
390
384
377
SYNDIBANK
107
110
108
107
105
103
LKP Advisory
397
1101
468
299
UNITECH
402
1137
18
171
SUNPHARMA
UNIONBANK
407
1172
477
288
SSLT
ULTRACEMCO
412
1215
18
164
RCOM
UCOBANK
401
1142
463
PNB
RANBAXY
UBL
UPL
PFC
PTC
TCS
The information in this documents has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true and is for general
guidance only. While every effort is made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of information contained, the company makes no guarantee and assumes no liability for
any errors or omissions of the information. No one can use the information as the basis for any claim, demand or cause of action. LKP Securities Ltd., and affiliates, including
the analyst who have issued this report, may, on the date of this report, and from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities of the companies
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provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this
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LKP Securities Ltd. Ph: (91-22) 66351234 FAX: (91-22) 66351249 E Mail: [email protected] web: http://www.lkpsec.com
LKP Advisory