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࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ᮏ࣋ࣥࢺࡢ㛤ദ࠶ࡓࡾࠊ௨ୗࡢ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡽࡢࡈ༠ຊࢆ࠸ࡓࡔࡁࡲࡋࡓࠋ ab ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛࡣࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㐃㑥ᨻᗓ࣭ᕞᨻᗓࡢබⓗമົ⟶⌮ᶵ㛵ᢸ ᙜ⪅ࡀࠊᶵ㛵ᢞ㈨ᐙࡢࡳ࡞ࡉࡲ┤᥋ࣉࣞࢮࣥࢸ࣮ࢩࣙࣥࡍࡿ༙᪥࣋ࣥࢺ࡛ࡍࠋ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆ᪤ᢞ㈨࡞ࡉࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ᪉ࠊࡇࢀࡽࡢᢞ㈨ࢆ࠾⪃࠼ࡢ᪉ࢆၥࢃࡎࠊ᪥ ᮏࡢᢞ㈨ᐙࡢࡳ࡞ࡉࡲࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆᕷሙࢆࡈ⤂ࡋࠊ᭱㏆ࡢ≧ἣࢆࡈㄝ᫂ࡍࡿ ࡶࠊᕷሙྲྀᘬࡢ⯆ࢆᅗࡾࡲࡍࠋ ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛ 㛫 ࢺࣆࢵࢡࢫ 9:10am ཷ 9:50am ࡣࡌࡵ ࢫࣆ࣮࣮࢝ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ ࣥ࣋ࢫࢱ࣮࣭࣮ࣜࣞࢩࣙࣥᢸᙜ㈐௵⪅ Ian Clunies-Ross 9:55am 㛤ࡢࡈᣵᣜ እົ㈠᫆┬ 㥔᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ Bruce Miller 10:05am ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜࡢ⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬ ࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࠊ࢚ࢢࢮࢡࢸࣈࢹ ࣞࢡࢱ࣮ David Gruen 10:35am ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㐃㑥ᨻᗓドๆᕷሙ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ ࡢᴫせ ᭱㧗ᇳ⾜ᐁ 㸦㐃㑥ᨻᗓᕞᨻᗓࡢ㛵ಀ࡞㸧 11:05am ࣮ࣔࢽࣥࢢ࣭ࢸ࣮ 11:25am ࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬᕞ㸸⤒ ῭ࠊ㈈ᨻ≧ἣࠊ࠾ࡼࡧධࣉࣟࢢ ࣒ࣛ Rob Nicholl 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ ᖍᇳ⾜ᙺဨ Stephen Knight ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 3 11:50am ࣅࢡࢺࣜᕞ㸸⤒῭ࠊ㈈ᨻ≧ἣࠊ ࣅࢡࢺࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫ ࠾ࡼࡧධࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛ ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢪࣥࢢࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮ William (Bill) Whitford 12:15pm ࢡ࣮ࣥࢬࣛࣥࢻᕞ㸸⤒῭ࠊ㈈ᨻ ࢡ࣮ࣥࢬࣛࣥࢻᕞ㈈ົබ♫ ≧ἣࠊ࠾ࡼࡧධࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛ ᖍᇳ⾜ᙺဨ Philip Noble 12:40pm す࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᕞ㸸⤒῭ࠊ㈈ᨻ≧ す࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫ ἣࠊ࠾ࡼࡧධࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛ ᭱㧗ᇳ⾜ᙺဨ John Collins 1:00pm බᘧࣛࣥࢳࠊࣉࣞࢮࣥࢸ࣮ࢩࣙࣥ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡢ᭱㏆ࡢ≧ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ‽ഛ㖟⾜ ἣ ࢩࢫࢱࣥࢺ࢞ࣂࢼ࣮ (㔠⼥ᕷሙᢸᙜ) 1:20pm Guy Debelle 2:30pm 㛢 4 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ࢫࣆ࣮࣮࢝␎Ṕ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 5 Guy Debelleࠉ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ‽ഛ㖟⾜㸦୰ኸ㖟⾜㸧㔠⼥ᕷሙᢸᙜࢩࢫࢱࣥࢺ࢞ࣂࢼ࣮ Mr Debelleࡣ2007ᖺ3᭶௨㝆ࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ‽ഛ㖟⾜ࡢ㔠⼥ᕷሙᢸᙜࢩࢫࢱࣥࢺ࢞ࣂࢼ࣮ ࢆົࡵࡿࠋ⌧ᅾࠊᅜ㝿Ỵ῭㖟⾜㸦BIS㸧ᕷሙጤဨ㆟㛗ᮾࢪ࣭࢜ࢭࢽ୰ኸ㖟⾜ᙺဨ ㆟㸦EMEAP㸧㔠⼥ᕷሙ࣮࣡࢟ࣥࢢ࣭ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ㆟㛗ࢆව௵ࡍࡿࠋࡲࡓࠊBISࢢ࣮ࣟࣂࣝ㔠⼥Ᏻᐃ ጤဨࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ‽ഛ㖟⾜ࢆ௦⾲ࡋ࡚ཧຍࠋ 1994ᖺ‽ഛ㖟⾜ධ⾜ࠋࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࠊᅜ㝿㏻㈌ᇶ㔠㸦IMF㸧ࠊBISࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬ົ ࢆ⤒㦂ࡍࡿࡶࠊ࣐ࢧࢳ࣮ࣗࢭࢵࢶᕤ⛉Ꮫ㸦MIT㸧࡛⤒῭Ꮫ㒊ᐈဨᩍᤵࡋ࡚ᩍ㠴ࢆࡗ ࡓࠋࢹ࣮ࣞࢻᏛ༞ᴗ࣭ྡ⤒῭ᏛኈྕྲྀᚓࠊMIT࡛PhDྲྀᚓ㸦⤒῭Ꮫᑓᨷ㸧ࠋ David Gruenࠉ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࠉ࢚ࢢࢮࢡࢸࣈࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮ Dr Gruenࡣ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬࣐ࢡࣟ⤒῭ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ࢚ࢢࢮࢡࢸࣈࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮ࢆົࡵࡿࠋ 2003ᖺ1᭶࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬ධ┬ࠋ1998ᖺ5᭶ࡽ2002ᖺ12᭶ࡢ㛫ࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ‽ ഛ㖟⾜ࡢ⤒῭ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ㒊㛛࣊ࢵࢻࢆົࡵࡿࠋ‽ഛ㖟⾜ࡣࠊ⤒῭ศᯒ࣭ࣜࢧ࣮ࢳ㒊㛛࡞࡛ྜィ 13ᖺ㛫ົࡋࡓࠋࡑࢀ௨๓ࡣࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᅜ❧Ꮫࡢ⮬↛⛉Ꮫࣜࢧ࣮ࢳࢫࢡ࣮࡛ࣝ◊✲ဨ ࡋ࡚ά㌍ࠋ1991ᖺ8᭶ࡽ1993ᖺ6᭶ࡢ㛫ࠊ༤ኈㄢ⛬ಟᚋࡢࣇࣝࣈࣛࢺዡᏛ㔠ไᗘࢆ⏝ࡋ ࡚ࠊࣉࣜࣥࢫࢺࣥᏛ⤒῭Ꮫ㒊࢘ࢵࢻ࣮࣭ࣟ࢘ࣝࢯ࣭ࣥࢫࢡ࣮࡛ࣝᐈဨㅮᖌࢆົࡵࡓࠋⱥᅜ ࢣࣥࣈࣜࢵࢪᏛ⏕⌮ᏛᑓᨷPhDࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᅜ❧Ꮫ⤒῭ᏛᑓᨷPhDྲྀᚓࠋ 6 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 Rob Nichollࠉ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇࠉ᭱㧗ᇳ⾜ᐁ㸦CEO㸧 Mr Nichollࡣ2011ᖺ1᭶ࡽ⌧⫋ࠋࢱࢫ࣐ࢽᕞᨻᗓࡢ㈈ົ┬㸦ᐁᡣ㛗㸸10ᖺ㛫㸧ࠊࣥࣇ ࣭࢚ࣛࢿࣝࢠ࣮࣭㈨※┬࡞ࢆ୰ᚰࠊ」ᩘࡢせ⫋ࢆṔ௵ࡋࠊබⓗᨻ⟇࣭㈈ᨻᨻ⟇ࡢᐇ⦼ࢆ ✚ࡴࠋࡲࡓࠊᕞᨻᗓయせࣉࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺࢆ᥎㐍ࡋ࡚ࠊၟᴗ㠃ࡘἲไ㠃࡛ࡁ࡞⤒㦂ࢆ✚ ࡴࠋ2000 ᖺࡣࠊᙜࡢࢱࢫ࣐ࢽᕞᨻᗓ㤳┦ࡢୖ⣭㢳ၥࢆົࡵࡓࠋ බົᑵࡃ๓ࡣࠊࢱࢫ࣐ࢽᏛ⤒῭Ꮫ㒊࡛ᩘᖺ㛫◊✲ဨࢆົࡵࡓࠋࢥࣥࢧࣝࢱࣥࢺࡋ࡚ࡢ⤒ 㦂ࡶ᭷ࡍࠋࢱࢫ࣐ࢽᏛ࡛⤒῭Ꮫኈྕࠊࣝ࣋ࣝࢱᏛ࡛⤒῭Ꮫಟኈྕࢆྲྀᚓࠋ Stephen Knightࠉࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬᕞ㈈ົබ♫ Mr Knightࡀᖍᇳ⾜ᙺဨࢆົࡵࡿࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬᕞ㈈ົබ♫㸦TCorp㸧ࡣࠊᕞᨻᗓ⤒ ῭ࡋ࡚ࡣྠᅜ᭱ࡢࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬᕞࡢ୰ኸධᶵ㛵࡛࠶ࡿࠋTCorpࡢ㈨⏘つᶍࡣ⣙ 700൨ࢻࣝࠊᖺ㛫ࡢ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩㢠ࡣ80㹼100൨ࢻࣝࡢࡰࡿࠋ140௨ୖࡢᨻᗓᶵ㛵ࡀTCorp ㈨⏘࣭㈇മ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜㐠⏝ࢆጤクࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ㐠⏝ጤク୰ࡢ㈇മ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࡣ450൨ ࢻࣝࠊᢞ㈨࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࡣ200൨ࢻ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿࠋ Mr Knightࡣ㖟⾜࣭ᢞ㈨㖟⾜ᴗ⏺࡛16ᖺ㛫ࠊ㔠⼥ᕷሙࡢ⤒㦂ࢆ✚ࢇࡔᚋࠊ1996ᖺTCorp ධ♫ࠋ1992ᖺࡽ1996ᖺࡢ㛫ࠊࢫࢫࣘࢽ࢜ࣥ㖟⾜㸦࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㸧ࡢࢺࣞࢪ࣮ࣕࣜ㒊㛛 ㈨ᮏᕷሙ㒊㛛ࡢ࣊ࢵࢻࢆົࡵࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ࠾ࡅࡿྠ⾜ࡢ㔠⼥ᕷሙྲྀᘬࡢ⤫ᣓ㈐௵⪅ࡔ ࡗࡓࠋࡑࢀ௨๓ࡣࠊANZࣂࣥ࢟ࣥࢢࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࠊࢼࢩࣙࢼ࣭࣑࣮ࣝࣗࢳ࣭ࣗࣝࣟࣖࣝ㖟⾜ࠊ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㖟⾜࡛㈈ົ㒊㛛ࡢୖ⣭⫋ࢆົࡵࡓࠋ ࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㔠⼥ᕷሙ༠㸦AFMA=Australian Financial Markets Association㸧ࡢࢹ ࣞࢡࢱ࣮ࠊFSCᢞ㈨࣮࣎ࢻጤဨ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࠊࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬࢻࣂࢨ࣮ࣜ࢝࢘ࣥࢩ ࣓ࣝࣥࣂ࣮㸦CEDA㸻࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤒῭㛤Ⓨጤဨ㸻ࡢࡓࡵタ⨨ࡉࢀࡓ⤌⧊㸧ࢆົࡵࡿࠋ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 7 William (Bill) Whitfordࠉࣅࢡࢺࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫ࠉ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢪࣥࢢࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮ Mr Whitfordࡣ2003ᖺ7᭶ࣅࢡࢺࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫㸦TCV㸧ࡢ࣐ࢿ࣮ࢪࣥࢢࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮௵ ࡉࢀࡓࠋTCVࡣࣅࢡࢺࣜᕞࡢ୰ኸධᶵ㛵࡛ࠊ⌧ᅾࡢ㈨⏘つᶍࡣ400൨ࢻࣝ௨ୖࠊᖺ㛫 ධᚲせ㢠ࡣ⣙70൨ࢻ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿࠋ ྠẶࡣࠊࣃࣜᅜ❧㖟⾜㸦BNP㸧ࠊState Bank of South Australiaࡢࢺࣞࢪ࣮࣭ࣕࣜ㔠⼥ᕷሙ㒊㛛 ࡞࡛30ᖺ௨ୖࡢ⤒㦂ࡀ࠶ࡾࠊࡲࡓࠊ༡࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᕞᨻᗓࡢබⓗࣥࣇࣛ㔠⼥ᦠࢃࡗࡓࠋ ࢹ࣮ࣞࢻᏛ⤒ႠᏛ㝔࡛MBAྲྀᚓࠋ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᴗᙺဨ༠◊✲ဨࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ 㔠⼥ᕷሙ༠࣭ᕷሙ⤫ጤဨ㛗ࠊࣅࢡࢺࣜᆅ᪉㔠⼥බ♫㠀ᖖࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮ࢆົࡵࡿࠋ Philip Nobleࠉࢡ࣮ࣥࢬࣛࣥࢻᕞ㈈ົබ♫ࠉᖍᇳ⾜ᙺဨ Mr Nobleࡣ2010ᖺ12᭶1᪥ࢡ࣮ࣥࢬࣛࣥࢻᕞ㈈ົබ♫㸦QTC㸧ࡢᖍᇳ⾜ᙺဨ௵ࡉ ࢀࡓࠋ ⌧⫋ࡢ๓ࡣࠊࢻࢶ㖟⾜ࢩࢻࢽ࣮ࡢࢢ࣮ࣟࣂ࣐࣮ࣝࢣࢵࢶᢸᙜࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮ࠊࣂ࣮ࣥ࢝ࢬࢺࣛࢫ ࢺ࣭࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㸦࣓ࣝ࣎ࣝࣥࠊࢩࢻࢽ࣮㸧ࡢ㔠⼥ᕷሙࢢ࣮ࣝࣉᢸᙜࣦࢫࣉࣞࢪࢹࣥࢺ ࡞ࠊᅜ㝿㖟⾜㒊㛛ࡢᖿ㒊⫋ࢆከᩘ⤒㦂ࡋࡓࠋ ┤㏆ࡣࠊࢡࣞࢹ࣭ࢫࢫ㸦ࢩࢻࢽ࣮㸧ࡢ࣮࢜ࢫࢺ࣭ࣛࣜࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻമๆ㒊㛛ᢸᙜ࣐ࢿ ࣮ࢪࣥࢢࢹࣞࢡࢱ࣮ව㒊㛛࣊ࢵࢻࡋ࡚ࠊᅾ࣮࢜ࢫࢺ࣭ࣛࣜࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ㢳ᐈྥࡅໟᣓ ࢧ࣮ࣅࢫᥦ౪ࡢࣅࢪࢿࢫࣔࢹࣝᵓ⠏࣭ࢧ࣮ࣅࢫᥦ౪ࡢ㈐ࢆ㈇ࡗࡓࠋྠẶࡣࢡࣞࢹ࣭ࢫࢫࡢ ྲྀ⥾ᙺ࣏ࢪࢩࣙࣥࡶ」ᩘᅇົࡵࠊࢡࣞࢹ࣭ࢫࢫ࣭࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜࡢᇳ⾜⤒Ⴀጤဨࡢ࣓ࣥࣂ ࣮࡛ࡶ࠶ࡗࡓࠋ ྠẶࡣ㇏ᐩ࡞ࣅࢪࢿࢫ⤒㦂ຍ࠼ࠊࢺࣞࢪ࣮ࣕࣜࠊࣜࢫࢡ⟶⌮ࠊമๆᕷሙࡢᑓ㛛▱㆑ࢆ᭷ࡋࠊᨻ ᗓࡢㄢ㢟ࠊධࢽ࣮ࢬᑐࡍࡿ⌮ゎࡶ῝ࡃࠊQTCࡢᖿ㒊ࢳ࣮࣒ෆእ㔠⼥ᶵ㛵ࡢ▱ぢࢆᩘከࡃ ࡶࡓࡽࡋࡓࠋ 8 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 John Collinsࠉす࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫ࠉ᭱㧗ᇳ⾜ᙺဨ Mr Collinsࡣ2009ᖺ10᭶15᪥࡛す࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫㸦WATC㸧ࡢ᭱㧗ᇳ⾜ᙺဨ 㸦CEO㸧ྲྀ⥾ᙺᙺဨ௵ࡉࢀࡓࠋሗ㓘ጤဨ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࡋ࡚άືࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࠋ๓⫋ࡣࠊ Cargill Incorporated㸦ࡰ10ᖺᅾ⡠㸧ࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺ࣭ࣛࣜࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ࣛࣥࢻ㖟⾜㸦ࡰ15ᖺᅾ ⡠㸧ࠊ┤㏆࡛ࡣࣥࢻࢿࢩPT ANZ Panin Bankࡢྲྀ⥾ᙺ♫㛗࡞ࠊ⡿ᅜࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜࠊ ࣥࢻࢿࢩࡢ㖟⾜࣭㔠⼥ᕷሙ㒊㛛ࡢᖿ㒊⫋࡛࠶ࡿࠋ࢜ࣁ࢜ᕞ❧Ꮫ㸦࢜ࣁ࢜ᕞࢥࣟࣥࣂ ࢫ㸧⤒ႠᏛኈྕྲྀᚓ㸦㔠⼥Ꮫᑓᨷ㸧ࠊࢭࣥࢺ࣭ࢺ࣮࣐ࢫᏛ㸦࣑ࢿࢯࢱᕞࢭࣥࢺ࣭࣏࣮ࣝ㸧⤒Ⴀ Ꮫಟኈྕྲྀᚓ㸦ᅜ㝿㔠⼥Ꮫᑓᨷ㸧ࠋ⌧ᅾࡣࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㔠⼥ᕷሙ༠㸦AFMA=Australian Financial Markets Association㸧ㄆᐃဨࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜྲྀ⥾ᙺ༠㸦AICD=Australian Institute of Company Directors㸧ྲྀ⥾ᙺࢥ࣮ࢫಟ⏕ࠊ࣮࢝ࢸࣥᏛࣅࢪࢿࢫࢫࢡ࣮ࣝ⤒῭ Ꮫ࣭㔠⼥Ꮫࢻࣂࢨ࣮࣮ࣜ࣎ࢻ࣓ࣥࣂ࣮ࠊAustralian Institute of Management◊✲ဨ࡛ࡶ࠶ࡿࠋ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 9 10 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ࣉࣞࢮࣥࢸ࣮ࢩࣙࣥ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 11 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤒῭ࡢぢ㏻ࡋ Dr David Gruen ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓ㈈ົ┬ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ ϮϬϭϯᖺϭϮ᭶ϭϭ᪥ ᐇ㉁'Wᡂ㛗⋡ ண ẚ㍑ ϮϬϭϯ % Per cent % Per cent ϮϬϭϰ % Per cent % Per cent 4.0 3.5 4.0 3.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.5 0.5 1.0 3.5 3.0 3.5 Budget ண⟬ Budget ண⟬ 2.5 Latest forecast ᭱᪂ண 1.0 ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢᖹᆒ್ Mean of consensus forecasts ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢࣞࣥࢪ Range of consensus forecasts 0.5 0.0 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 0.0 Oct-13 ὀ: ㉥༳ࡣ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓࡢண ฟᡤ: ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫ࣭࢚ࢥࣀ࣑ࢵࢡࢫ♫ࠊ㈈ົ┬ 12 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 0.5 Jan-13 3.0 Latest ᭱᪂ண forecast ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢᖹᆒ್ Mean of consensus forecasts ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢࣞࣥࢪ Range of consensus forecasts 1.5 1.0 Apr-13 Jul-13 0.5 Oct-13 ᫆᮲௳ 䜲䞁䝕䝑䜽䝇 Index (2011-12 = 100) 䜲䞁䝕䝑䜽䝇 Index (2011-12 = 100) forecasts 110 projections ぢ㏻ࡋ ண 100 110 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 1959-60 1969-70 1979-80 1989-90 1999-00 2009-10 2019-20 40 2029-30 ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 5204.0ࠊ㈈ົ┬ ᐇ㉁Ⅽ࣮᭰ࣞࢺཬࡧ᫆᮲௳ 180 Index (Post float average = 100) 䜲䞁䝕䝑䜽䝇ኚືⅭ᭰௨㝆ᚋ䛾ᖹᆒ 180 Index (Post float average = 100) 䜲䞁䝕䝑䜽䝇ኚືⅭ᭰௨㝆ᚋ䛾ᖹᆒ 170 170 160 160 ᫆᮲௳ Terms of Trade 150 150 140 140 130 130 120 120 110 110 ᐇ㉁Ⅽ࣮᭰ࣞࢺ Real exchange rate 100 100 90 90 80 80 70 Mar-84 Jun-87 Sep-90 Dec-93 Mar-97 Jun-00 Sep-03 Dec-06 Mar-10 70 Jun-13 ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁCat. No. 5206.0ࠊ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ‽ഛ㖟⾜ࠊ㈈ົ┬ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 13 タഛᢞ㈨ ᑐ*'3ẚ䠄䠂䠅 20 Per cent of GDP ᑐ*'3ẚ䠄䠂䠅 Per cent of GDP 20 18 18 16 16 14 14 12 12 10 Jun-93 Jun-97 Jun-01 Jun-05 Jun-09 10 Jun-13 ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 5206.0ࠊ5625.0ࠊ㈈ົ┬ タഛᢞ㈨ ᑐ*'3ẚ䠄䠂䠅 Per cent of GDP Perᑐ*'3ẚ䠄䠂䠅 cent of GDP 15 Forecasts 15 ண 12 12 9 9 㠀㖔ᴗ㒊㛛 Non-mining 6 6 㖔ᴗ㒊㛛 Mining 3 3 0 1976-77 0 1985-86 1994-95 ὀ: 㛫᥋ⓗ࡞㈨⏘⛣㌿ࡣ㠀㖔ᴗ㒊㛛ࡢࡳⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࡶࡢᐃࡍࡿ ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 5204.0ࠊ ㈈ົ┬ 14 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 2003-04 2012-13 ㈨※ᢞ㈨ ʹ せ࡞ࣉࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺ 75 ൨䝗䝹 $billion ൨䝗䝹 $billion 75 60 60 45 45 30 30 15 15 0 0 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 㕲㖔 Iron ore LNG Coal ▼Ⅳ Other 䛭䛾 2016-17 Committed ዎ⣙῭䜏 ฟᡤ: ㈈ົ┬ ㈨※㍺ฟ ᐇ㉁'Wᡂ㛗⋡ࡢᐤᗘ 2.0 Average percentage contribution ᖹᆒᐤ⋡䠄䠂䠅 Average percentage contribution ᖹᆒᐤ⋡䠄䠂䠅 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.5 2005-06 ᨺ to 2008-09 㕲㖔 Iron ore 2009-10 ᨺ to 2012-13 ▼Ⅳ Coal LNG 2013-14 ᨺ to 2014-15 䛭䛾 Other 2015-16ᨺ to 2016-17 -0.5 ㈨※㍺ฟ Resources exports ฟᡤ: ㈈ົ┬ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 15 ᐇ㉁'Wᡂ㛗⋡ࡢᐤᗘ 4 %࣏ࣥࢺ %࣏ࣥࢺ ண 4 ぢ㏻ࡋ GDP ᡂ㛗⋡ 3 3 Non-reฟᡤs 2 2 sectors 㠀㈨※㒊㛛 ㈨※㒊㛛 1 1 0 0 ⣧㈨※ᢞ㈨ -1 -1 ㈨※㍺ฟ -2 -2 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 ὀ: 㖔ᴗᢞ㈨ࡀ㍺ධࢩ࢙ࡢ50%ࢆ༨ࡵࡿᐃࠋண ཬࡧぢ㏻ࡋࡣ㑅ᣲ๓⤒῭㈈ᨻぢ㏻ࡋࡼࡿࡶࡢ ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 5204.0ཬࡧ5302.0ࠊ㈨※࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮⤒῭ᒁࠊ㈈ົ┬ ປാᕷሙ 66.0 % Per cent Per cent % 6.0 Unemployment rate (RHS) ኻᴗ⋡ 65.5 5.0 ປാຊ⋡ Participation rate (LHS) 65.0 64.5 Oct-08 4.0 Oct-09 Oct-10 ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 6202.0 16 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 Oct-11 Oct-12 3.0 Oct-13 ㈈ࡢ㍺ฟࢩ࢙ 㸦㍺ฟඛู㸧 2002-03 㡑ᅜ 2012-13 ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ ࣛࣥࢻ ᪥ᮏ ᪥ᮏ 㡑ᅜ ࢽ࣮ࣗࢪ࣮ ࣛࣥࢻ ࡑࡢ ୰ᅜ ࡑࡢ ୰ᅜ ࣥࢻ ࣥࢻ ⡿ ⡿ ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 5368.0 ᡤᚓᑐࡍࡿఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢẚ⋡ 4.5 ẚ⋡ Ratio Ratio ẚ⋡ 4.5 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.5 Sep-93 Sep-97 Sep-01 Sep-05 Sep-09 2.5 Sep-13 ὀ: ᐙィ࠾ࡅࡿࢢࣟࢫࡢྍฎศᡤᚓࡢᖹᆒ್ᑐࡍࡿఫᏯ౯᱁ࡢ୰ኸ್ࡢẚ⋡ࠋᡤᚓࡣࠊఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥ㔠ᨭᡶ㢠᥍㝖๓ࡋࠊ㠀ἲேᴗࡢ ධࢆྵࡲ࡞࠸ࠋ ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁࠊఫᏯ⏘ᴗ༠ࠊRP Data – Rismark♫ࠊ㈈ົ┬ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 17 ⤒ᖖᨭ ᑐ*'3ẚ䠄䠂䠅 6 Per cent of GDP Perᑐ*'3ẚ䠄䠂䠅 cent of GDP 6 3 Trade balance ㈠᫆ᨭ 3 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 Net income ᡤᚓᨭbalance Current⤒ᖖᨭ account balance -9 -9 -12 -12 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. Nos. 5206.0 and 5302.0. ᡤᚓࡢᖺ㛫ఙࡧ⋡ࡢᐤᗘ 4 ᖺᖹᆒᐤᗘ䝫䜲䞁䝖 ᖺᖹᆒᐤᗘ䝫䜲䞁䝖 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 1960s ᾏእࡽࡢ⣧ᡤᚓ 1970s 1980s ປാ⏕⏘ᛶ 1990s ά⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ ປാຊ -1 2000s 㹼 2013 2023ᖺࡲ࡛ࡢ10ᖺ㛫 ᫆᮲௳ ୍ேᙜࡓࡾGNI ὀ: ປാ⏕⏘ᛶࡢ㛗ᮇᖺᖹᆒᡂ㛗⋡ࡣ2013ᖺࡽ2023ᖺࡢ10ᖺ࡛ィ⟬ࡋࠊྠᮇ㛫ᾏእࡽࡢ⣧ᡤᚓࡢኚࡢᐤᗘࡣࢮ࡛ࣟ࠶ࡿᐃ ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 5204.0ࠊ5206.0ࠊ㈈ົ┬ヨ⟬ 18 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤒῭ࡢぢ㏻ࡋ Dr David Gruen ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓ㈈ົ┬ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ ϮϬϭϯᖺϭϮ᭶ϭϭ᪥ ཧ⪃㈨ᩱ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 19 ᐇ㉁'Wᡂ㛗⋡ 6 % Per cent Per cent % (f) 5 6 (p) 5 average 30-year 30ᖺᖹᆒ 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 -1 1984-85 1988-89 1992-93 1996-97 2000-01 2004-05 2008-09 2012-13 -1 2016-17 ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 5204.0ࠊ㈈ົ┬ ᾘ㈝⪅ಙ㢗ឤᣦᩘኻᴗணᣦᩘ 135 ࣥࢹࢵࢡࢫ Index ࣥࢹࢵࢡࢫ Index 135 ࣥࢹࢵࢡࢫ Index 80 ࣥࢹࢵࢡࢫ 80 Index 10ᖺᖹᆒ 10 year average 120 120 105 105 105 130 105 130 year average 10 10ᖺᖹᆒ 90 Consumer Sentiment ᾘ㈝⪅ಙ㢗ឤᣦᩘ 75 90 155 155 75 180 180 Unemployment ኻᴗணᣦᩘ Expectations 60 Oct-03 Oct-08 60 Oct-13 205 Oct-03 Oct-08 ฟᡤ:࢙࢘ࢫࢺࣃࢵࢡ࣭࣓࣭ࣝ࣎ࣝࣥࣥࢫࢸࢸ࣮ࣗࢺ㸦WMI㸧ᾘ㈝⪅ಙ㢗ឤㄪᰝཬࡧᾘ㈝⪅ࡢኻᴗணㄪᰝ 20 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 205 Oct-13 ປാᕷሙ ⥲ປാ㛫ࡢቑῶࢺࣞࣥࢻ 5 ๓ᖺẚ Ppts (tty) ๓ᖺẚ Ppts (tty) Total hours ⥲ປാ㛫 3 5 3 1 1 Employment 㞠⏝ -1 -1 Average hours ᖹᆒ㛫 -3 Oct-07 Oct-09 -3 Oct-13 Oct-11 ฟᡤ: ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ⤫ィᒁ Cat. No. 6202.0. 7.0 ኻᴗ⋡ ண ẚ㍑ ϮϬϭϯ % Per cent % Per cent 7.0 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 % Per cent ϮϬϭϰ % Per cent 7.0 6.5 Latest forecast ᭱᪂ண 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Budget ண⟬ 5.5 ண⟬ Budget 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.0 Latest ᭱᪂ண forecast 5.0 4.5 ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢᖹᆒ್ Mean of consensus forecasts Range of consensus forecasts ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢࣞࣥࢪ 4.0 3.5 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 3.5 Oct-13 3.5 Jan-13 ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢᖹᆒ್ Mean of consensus forecasts ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫணࡢࣞࣥࢪ Range of consensus forecasts 4.5 4.0 Apr-13 Jul-13 3.5 Oct-13 ὀ: ㉥༳ࡣ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓࡢண ฟᡤ:ࢥࣥࢭࣥࢧࢫ࣭࢚ࢥࣀ࣑ࢵࢡࢫ♫ࠊ㈈ົ┬ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 21 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᨻᗓമๆ䝣䜷䞊䝷䝮 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᅜമᕷሙ Rob Nicholl 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ䚸᭱㧗ᇳ⾜ᐁ 2013ᖺ12᭶ 2 䜲䞁䝖䝻䝎䜽䝅䝵䞁 ¾ 㻳㻰㻼㻝㻡༓൨䝗䝹䜢᭷䛩䜛ୡ⏺➨㻝㻞䛾⤒῭ᅜ ¾ ᨻ⟇㔠:2.50% ¾ ᅜമᅇ䜚 Ͳ>3ᖺ≀:3.1%/10ᖺ≀:4.2%/15ᖺ≀:4.6% ¾ 䝇䝍䞁䝎䞊䝗䞉䜰䞁䝗䞉䝥䜰䞊䝈䛜AAA᱁䛡䠄Ᏻᐃⓗ䠅䜢䛡䜛㻟ᕷሙ 䠄മๆṧ㧗䠙㻞㻘㻜㻜㻜൨⡿䝗䝹㉸䠅䛾䜂䛸䛴 ¾ 䝗䝹䛾Ⅽ᭰ྲྀᘬ㔞䛿㏻㈌୰➨㻡䚸䝗䝹㻛⡿䝗䝹䛾Ⅽ᭰ྲྀᘬ㔞 䛿㏻㈌䝨䜰ู䛷➨㻠 ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ䚸BIS䚸IMF䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰‽ഛ㖟⾜ 22 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 3 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 6ᕞ䛸2ᆅᇦ 㒊‽ ᕞ す࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛ ࣜᕞ ༡࣮࢜ࢫ ࢺࣛࣜ ᕞ ࢡ࣮ࣥ ࢬࣛࣥࢻᕞ ࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬᕞ 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㤳㒔≉ูᆅᇦ ࣅࢡࢺࣜ ᕞ ࢱࢫ࣐ࢽᕞ 4 ṓධᵓ㐀 100 Percentof 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾 ⛯䛻䛚䛡䜛ྜ AustralianTaxRevenue 㐃㑥ᨻᗓ Commonwealth ᕞᨻᗓ䠄ᆅ᪉䜢ྵ䜐䠅 State(inc.Local) 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾 Percentof ⛯䛻䛚䛡䜛ྜ AustralianTaxRevenue 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2007Ͳ08 2008Ͳ09 2009Ͳ10 2010Ͳ11 2011Ͳ12 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛿ᕞᨻᗓ䜔䝔䝸䝖䝸䞊䜘䜚䜒㧗㢠䛺⛯䜢ᚓ䛶䛔䜛…. ฟ: 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 23 5 ᕞ/ࢸࣜࢺ࣮ࣜࡢ⛯※ 2011ᖺ㹼2012ᖺ 100% ⥲ṓධ䛻䛚 Percentof 䛡䜛ྜ TotalRevenue ᕞ⛯ 䠄ྵᆅ᪉䠅 State(inc.Local)Taxes 䛭䛾⊂⮬䛾ṓධ※ OtherOwnͲSourceRevenue GST(FederalTransfer) ≀ရ䝃䞊䝡䝇⛯ 䠄㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛛䜙䛾㈈※⛣㌿䠅 SpecificPurposePayments(FederalTransfer) ≉ู┠ⓗᨭᡶ (䠄㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛛䜙䛾㈈※⛣㌿䠅 ⥲ṓධ䛻䛚 Percentof 䛡䜛ྜ TotalRevenue 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇 NSW 䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ VIC 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ QLD 䜽䜲䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ WA す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ ༡䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ SA 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 ACT 㤳㒔≉ูᆅᇦ 䝍䝇䝬䝙䜰ᕞ TAS 㒊‽ᕞ NT …䛭䛣䛷䚸㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛿䚸ᕞᨻᗓ䜔䝔䝸䝖䝸䞊䛾ṓฟᚲせ㢠䜢⿵䛶䜣䛩䜛䛯䜑䚸㈈※䜢⛣㌿䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ䚸㐃㑥⿵ຓ㔠ጤဨ䚸㈈ົ┬ – FBO2011Ͳ12ᖺ 6 㐃㑥ᨻᗓࡢ⛯ᇶ┙ 350 10൨䝗䝹 A$Billion A$Billion 10൨䝗䝹 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 PersonalIncomeTax CompanyTax ಶேᡤᚓ⛯ ᴗ⛯ GST ≀ရ䝃䞊䝡䝇⛯ ExcisesandLevies ᾘ㈝⛯ Other 䛭䛾 Total ྜィ 2002ᖺᗘ䡚2011ᖺᗘ ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ 24 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 7 ᨻᗓ㛫䛾㈈ᨻᵓ㐀 ㈨㔠䛾ฟᡤ ㈨㔠䛾㏵ 㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛾ᢪ䛘䜛ၥ㢟 㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛿 ⛯㔠䛛䜙 ㈨㔠䜢ㄪ㐩 Ᏻ 㜵⾨ ⛣Ẹ ⎔ቃ ᕞᨻᗓ䛾ᢪ䛘䜛ၥ㢟 ᕞᨻᗓ/䝔䝸䝖䝸䞊ᨻᗓ䛿 ṓධ䛾༙ศ௨ୖ䛜 㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛻䜘䜛⿵䛶䜣 㐨㊰ Ꮫᰯ ఫᏯཬ䜃㝔 ㆙ᐹཬ䜃ᩆᛴ䝃䞊䝡䝇 ฟ:㐃㑥㆟ᩍ⫱ᗇ 8 ⣧മົ 䛾AAA᱁(Ᏻᐃⓗ䠅ᅜ䛸䛾ẚ㍑䠄2013ᖺᗘ䡚2018ᖺᗘ䠅 50 ᑐGDPẚ䠄䠂䠅 PercentofGDP PercentofGDP ᑐGDPẚ䠄䠂䠅 50 25 25 0 0 Ͳ25 Ͳ25 Ͳ50 Ͳ50 Ͳ75 Ͳ75 Ͳ100 Ͳ100 Ͳ125 Ͳ125 Ͳ150 Ͳ150 Ͳ175 Ͳ175 Ͳ200 Ͳ200 Australia 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 Australia 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䠄ᕞᨻᗓ䜢㝖䛟䠅 exStates Norway 䝜䝹䜴䜵䞊 Sweden 䝇䜴䜵䞊䝕䞁 Finland 䝣䜱䞁䝷䞁䝗 Denmark 䝕䞁䝬䞊䜽 Switzerland 䝇䜲䝇 Canada 䜹䝘䝎 ὀ:ୖグࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ୍⯡ᨻᗓമົࡢྜィ್ࠋࠕ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ(ᕞᨻᗓࢆ㝖ࡃ㸧ࠖࡣࠊ2013Ͳ14ᖺᗘࡢᮇ㛫ࢹ࣮ࢱࠋ ࡑࡢࡣ࡚2013ᖺ௨㝆ࡢᬺᖺࢹ࣮ࢱࠋࢩ࣏࣮ࣥ࢞ࣝࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࡣྲྀᚓ࡛ࡁࡎࠋ ฟ:㈈ົ┬ – PEFO2013,IMF㈈ᨻ䝰䝙䝍䞊 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 25 9 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾㈈ᨻ≧ἣ ᑐGDPẚ䠄䠂䠅 ᑐGDPẚ䠄䠂䠅 ண ฟ:㈈ົ┬ – PEFO2013,FBO2012Ͳ13 10 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᅜമ TreasuryBonds 䝖䝺䝆䝱䝸䞊䞉䝪䞁䝗 10൨䝗䝹 A$Billion TreasuryIndexedBonds 䝖䝺䝆䝱䝸䞊䞉䜲䞁䝕䝑䜽䝇䞉䝪䞁䝗 A$Billion 10൨䝗䝹 $7.5 $21.0 $255.8 TreasuryNotes 䝖䝺䝆䝱䝸䞊䞉䝜䞊䝖 10൨䝗䝹 A$Billion $60.0 $53.8 $4.0 $4.0 $28.2 Act.NetIss. 2012Ͳ13 Act.Gross Iss. 2012Ͳ13 Exp. NetIss. 2013Ͳ14 Exp. Gross Iss. 2013Ͳ14 $37.0 ¾ ⌧ᅾ18ᮏ䛜ฟ୰ ¾ ෆ䚸15ᮏ䛿Ⓨ⾜㢠䛜100 ൨䝗䝹㉸ ¾ ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛿2013ᖺ䛛䜙 2029ᖺ $2.3 $2.3 ¾ ⌧ᅾ6ᮏ䛜ฟ୰ ¾ ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛿2015ᖺ䛛䜙 2035ᖺ ¾ ⌧ᅾ4ᮏ䛜ฟ୰ ¾ ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛿༙䛜6䞄᭶ ᮍ‶ ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ 26 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 11 ࢺࣞࢪ࣮࣭ࣕࣜ࣎ࣥࢻൾ㑏ᮇ㝈ࡢᴫせ 2009ᖺ6᭶ 2011ᖺ6᭶ 2013ᖺ10᭶ 10൨䝗䝹 10൨䝗䝹 䜹䞊䝤䛾㛗ᮇ ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ 12 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᅜമࡢⓎ⾜≧ἣ 10൨䝗䝹 ᑐGDPẚ䠄䠂䠅 (ண) 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᅜമṧ㧗䛾ᑐGDPẚ䠄䠂䠅 2001ᖺ6᭶ 2002ᖺ6᭶ 2003ᖺ6᭶ 2004ᖺ6᭶ 2005ᖺ6᭶ 2006ᖺ6᭶ 2007ᖺ6᭶ 2008ᖺ6᭶ 2009ᖺ6᭶ 2010ᖺ6᭶ 2011ᖺ6᭶ 2012ᖺ6᭶ 2013ᖺ6᭶ 2014ᖺ6᭶ 2015ᖺ6᭶ 2016ᖺ6᭶ 2017ᖺ6᭶ ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ䚸㈈ົ┬ – PEFO2013,䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 27 13 ࢺࣞࢪ࣮࣭ࣕࣜ࣎ࣥࢻ 18ᮏࢆເ㞟୰ࠊෆ15ᮏࡣⓎ⾜㢠100൨ࢻࣝ㉸ 2013ᖺ10᭶䜎䛷䛾㏣ຍⓎ⾜ணᐃ㢠 2013ᖺ6᭶ᮎ⌧ᅾ䛾ṧ㧗 10൨䝗䝹 10൨䝗䝹 2013ᖺ 12᭶ 2014ᖺ 2014ᖺ 2015ᖺ 2015ᖺ 2016ᖺ 2017ᖺ 2017ᖺ 2018ᖺ 2019ᖺ 2020ᖺ 2021ᖺ 2022ᖺ 4᭶ 2᭶ 7᭶ 1᭶ 3᭶ 5᭶ 6᭶ 7᭶ 6᭶ 10᭶ 10᭶ 4᭶ 2023ᖺ 2024ᖺ 2025ᖺ 2027ᖺ 2029ᖺ [ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈] 4᭶ 4᭶ 4᭶ 4᭶ 4᭶ ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ ࢺࣞࢪ࣮࣭ࣕࣜ࣎ࣥࢻࡢᕷሙฟ᮶㧗 14 ࢘ࢺࣛࢺྲྀᘬ࣏ࣞྲྀᘬ 450 10൨䝗䝹 A$billion Turnoverratio ᅇ㌿⋡ 2.50 400 350 2.00 Turnoverratio(RHS) ᅇ㌿⋡ (ྑ㍈䠅 䝖䝺䝆䝱䝸䞊䞉䝪䞁䝗ฟ᮶㧗 䠄ᕥ㍈䠅 TBturnover(LHS) 300 1.50 250 200 1.00 150 100 0.50 50 0 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ᭶୰ࡢฟ᮶㧗 (3ࣨ᭶⛣ືᖹᆒ) ὀ:ᅇ㌿⋡㸸᭶୰ࡢฟ᮶㧗ࢆ᭶ᮎⅬࡢമๆṧ㧗࡛㝖ࡋࡓ್ ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ,䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰‽ഛ㖟⾜ 28 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 15 ࢺࣞࢪ࣮࣭ࣕࣜࣥࢹࢵࢡࢫ࣭࣎ࣥࢻ Ⓨ⾜㢠 2013ᖺ6᭶ᮎ⌧ᅾ䛾ṧ㧗 2013ᖺ10᭶䜎䛷䛾㏣ຍⓎ⾜ணᐃ㢠 10൨䝗䝹 10൨䝗䝹 2015ᖺ8᭶ 2020ᖺ8᭶ 2022ᖺ2᭶ 2025ᖺ9᭶ 2030ᖺ9᭶ 2035ᖺ8᭶ [ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈] ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ 16 ᾏእᢞ㈨ᐙࡀ㑅⪃ࡍࡿ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᅜമ 䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖 ౯䠄10൨䝗䝹䠅 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᅜമ (TB&TIBs)(ᕥ㍈䠅 㠀ᒃఫ⪅䛻䜘䜛ಖ᭷ (ᕥ㍈䠅 㠀ᒃఫ⪅䛻䜘䜛ಖ᭷䛾ྜ(ྑ㍈䠅 ฟ:䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ,䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 29 17 䝋䝤䝸䞁മ䝇䝥䝺䝑䝗 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᅜമ䛸⡿ᅜമ䛾ᅇ䜚ẚ㍑ Ausvs.US 䝧䞊䝅䝇䝫䜲䞁䝖 600 Basispoints 2yrbondspread 2ᖺമᅇ䜚᱁ᕪ 5yrbondspread 5ᖺമᅇ䜚᱁ᕪ 10yrbondspread 10ᖺമᅇ䜚᱁ᕪ 䝧䞊䝅䝇䝫䜲䞁䝖 Basispoints 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 2005 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᅜമ䛸᪥ᮏᅜമ䛾ᅇ䜚ẚ㍑ Ausvs.Japan 700 䝧䞊䝅䝇䝫䜲䞁䝖 Basispoints 2yrbondspread 2ᖺമᅇ䜚᱁ᕪ 5ᖺമᅇ䜚᱁ᕪ 5yrbondspread 10ᖺമᅇ䜚᱁ᕪ 10yrbondspread 䝧䞊䝅䝇䝫䜲䞁䝖 Basispoints 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 2005 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ฟ:䝤䝹䞊䝮䝞䞊䜾 18 ࢯࣈࣜࣥമᅇࡾཬࡧಙ⏝᱁ࡅ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᑐOECDㅖᅜ 䝙䝳䞊䝆䞊䝷䞁䝗 䜲䝍䝸䜰 ୰ᅜ 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䝇䝨䜲䞁 䜰䜲䝹䝷䞁䝗 䝜䝹䜴䜵䞊 10ᖺ≀ᅇ䜚 (%) ⡿ᅜ ⱥᅜ 䜹䝘䝎 䝇䜴䜵䞊䝕䞁 䜸䝷䞁䝎 䝕䞁䝬䞊䜽 䝣䝷䞁䝇 䝣䜱䞁䝷䞁䝗 䝗䜲䝒 ᪥ᮏ 䝇䝍䞁䝎䞊䝗䞉䜰䞁䝗䞉䝥䜰䞊䝈䛻䜘䜛㛗ᮇമ䠄ྵᆅ᪉മ䠅䛾ಙ⏝᱁䛡 ୰ᅜࡣṇᘧࡣOECDຍ┕ᅜ࡛ࡣ࡞࠸ࡀࠊOECDጤဨάື࢜ࣈࢨ࣮ࣂ࣮ࡋ࡚ཧຍࡍࡿࡇࡶ࠶ࡿࡓ ࡵࠊୖᅗ࡛ࡣࠊẚ㍑ཧ⪃┠ⓗ࡛ᥖ㍕ࠋ 30 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ฟ䠖䝤䝹䞊䝮䝞䞊䜾䚸䝇䝍䞁䝎䞊䝗䞉䜰䞁䝗䞉䝥䜰䞊䝈 19 ࢺࣜࣉࣝA㏻㈌ࡢὶືᛶ 㸦⮬ᅜ㏻㈌ࢆᣢࡘᅜ㛵ࡋ࡚㸧 䝗䝹 䝇䜲䝇䝣䝷䞁 ຍ䝗䝹 䝇䜴䜵䞊䝕䞁 䜽䝻䞊䝛 (SEK) 䝅䞁䜺䝫䞊䝹 䝗䝹 (SGD) 䝜䝹䜴䜵䞊 䜽䝻䞊䝛 (NOK) 䝕䞁䝬䞊䜽 䜽䝻䞊䝛 (DKK) 䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹Ⅽ᭰ྲྀᘬ䛻༨䜑䜛䝅䜵䜰 ὀ:୍ྲྀᘬࡣ2ࡘࡢ㏻㈌ࡀ㛵ࢃࡿࡇࡽࠊྛ㏻㈌ࢩ࢙ࡢྜィࡣ100%࡛ࡣ࡞ࡃࠊ200%࡞ࡿࠋ ࣇࣥࣛࣥࢻࡣ࣮ࣘࣟᅪࡢ୍㒊ࠋ ฟ:BIS(እᅜⅭ᭰䛚䜘䜃䝕䝸䝞䝔䜱䝤ᕷሙྲྀᘬ䛻㛵䛩䜛3ᖺ䛻୍ᗘ䛾୰ኸ㖟⾜ㄪᰝ 2013ᖺ䠅 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 31 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ – ᢞ㈨ᐙྥ䛡䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 Stephen Knight ᳹Ⳬ⚵圊⸷⎟ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 2013ᖺ11᭶ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈 (NSW)ᕞ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈䠄NSW䠅 ᕞ䛿䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛷᭱䜒ேཱྀ 䛜ከ䛟䚸⤒῭つᶍ䛾䛝䛔ᕞ䛷 䛒䜛䚹NSWᕞ䛾ேཱྀཬ䜃GDP 䛿䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰య䛾3ศ䛾 1㏆䛟䛻㐩䛩䜛䚹 ேཱྀ: 730ே GDP: 4,340൨䝗䝹 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰᭱䛾㒔ᕷ䛷䛒䜚 㔠⼥䝉䞁䝍䞊䛷䜒䛒䜛䝅䝗䝙䞊 䛿䚸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ 䛻⨨䛩䜛䚹 㔠⼥䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾ᑵᴗ⪅ᩘ䛿 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞయ 䛾ഹ䛛4.9%䛰䛜䚸ྠ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛿 ᕞෆ⥲⏕⏘(GSP)䛾15%䜢༨ 䜑䛶䛔䜛䚹 2 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 32 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ᶵᐦ㈨ᩱ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾⤒῭ – ᇶᮏሗ • 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛿䜰䝆䜰ኴᖹὒ⤒῭䛻䛚䛡䜛୰ᚰⓗ䛺 Ꮡᅾ䛷䛒䜛䚹䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾⤒῭つᶍ䛿㤶 䚸䝍䜲䚸 䝬䝺䞊䝅䜰䚸䝅䞁䜺䝫䞊䝹䚸䝣䜱䝸䝢䞁䛾ྛᅜ⤒῭つᶍ䜘䜚䜒䛝 䛔䚹 • 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰‽ഛ㖟⾜(RBA)䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᛶつไᗇ (APRA)䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ドๆᕷሙ(ASX)䚸Chi-X䚸䝅䝗䝙䞊ඛ≀ྲྀᘬ ᡤ(SFE)➼䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾せ䛺㔠⼥䜲䞁䝣䝷䛿䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇 䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛻⨨䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 • 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛿䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰᭱䛾〇㐀ᴗ䜢᧦䛧䚸 ᕤᴗ〇ရ䛾㍺ฟ䜢≌ᘬ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 • 䝅䝗䝙䞊䛿䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾≀ὶ䚸ྲྀᘬ䛾ฟධ䜚ཱྀ䛸䛺䛳䛶䛚䜚䚸ᅜ య䛾50%㏆䛟䛾ᅜ㝿⯟✵㈌≀䛜䝅䝗䝙䞊䜢㏻㐣䛩䜛䚹 3 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 ᶵᐦ㈨ᩱ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾⤒῭ – ᡂ㛗䝖䝺䞁䝗 • 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰᭱䛾⤒῭つᶍ䜢᭷䛩䜛䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾⤒ ῭ᡂ㛗⋡䛿䚸2000ᖺ௦䛿䜋䜌ᖖ䛻ᅜᖹᆒ䜢ୗᅇ䛳䛶䛔䛯䛜䚸⌧ᅾ䛿 ୖᅇ䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 • 㐣ཤ2ᖺ㛫䚸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛿᭱䜒ከ䛟㞠⏝䜢ฟ䛧䚸᭱䜒ప 䛔ኻᴗ⋡䜢⥔ᣢ䛧䛶䛔䜛ᕞ䛷䛒䜛䚹 • ከᵝ䛺䝃䞊䝡䝇⏘ᴗ䚸ప㔠䚸ᨻᗓ䛾✚ᴟⓗ䛺ྲྀ⤌䜏䚸ᘓタ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾 ᅇ➼䛜䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾᭦䛺䜛ᡂ㛗䜢≌ᘬ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 4 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 ᶵᐦ㈨ᩱ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 33 άẼ䛵䛟ఫᏯ䝉䜽䝍䞊 ఫᏯᘓタཬࡧ㔠 % % 40 -4 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ ఫᏯᘓタ %y/y(lhs) 20 -2 0 0 㔠ኚື 12䞄᭶ඛ⾜䚸㌿ (rhs) -20 2 Correlation: -61% -40 Oct-97 4 Oct-00 Oct-03 Oct-06 Oct-09 Oct-12 • ᨻᗓ䛾ᨭ⟇䛸ప㔠䛻䜘䜚䚸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾ఫᏯᘓタ䛜άⓎ䛧䛶䛚䜚䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤒῭ 䛜㖔ᴗタഛᢞ㈨౫Ꮡయ㉁䛛䜙⬺༷䛩䜛䛝䛳䛛䛡䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 5 ᶵᐦ㈨ᩱ ఫᏯ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾䝎䜲䝘䝭䜽䝇 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈 ᕞ ఫᏯᢞ㈨ % ఫᏯ࣮ࣟࣥമົᒚ⾜⋡ % 1.0 8 % 1.0 ఫᏯᢞ㈨䛿㐣ཤ10ᖺ㛫㛗ᮇᖹ ᆒ䜢ୗᅇ䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 Qld 䠄䜽䜲䞊䞁䝈 䝷䞁䝗ᕞ䠅 0.8 7 0.8 NSW 䠄䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇 䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䠅 0.6 6 0.6 0.4 5 0.4 㛗ᮇᖹᆒ 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰య Vic WA 䠄䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ䠅 䠄す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䠅 0.2 4 0.2 ᕞ᭱⤊㟂せ䛾䝅䜵䜰 (%) SA 䠄༡䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䠅 ฟᡤ: ANZ 0.0 3 1985 6 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 ᨻᗓ䛿ఫᏯ౪⤥䜢ಁ㐍䛥䛫䜛 Ⅽ䚸」ᩘ䛾ᨵ㠉䜢ᐇ䚹 Jan-06 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 34 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 0.0 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾ఫ Ꮿ䝻䞊䞁മົᒚ⾜⋡䛿ᕞ 䛷᭱䜒ప䛔䚹 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ ປാᕷሙ䛿ዲㄪ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ⤒῭ 䛿㛗ᖺ䚸ᨻ⟇㔠䛾ኚື䛻ᩄ ឤ䛷䛒䜛䚹 㞠⏝ࡢఙࡧ % 5 6 䛭䛾䛾ᕞ %y/y, 3䞄᭶ᖹᆒ ࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬᕞ ⏘ᴗู㞠⏝ % % 6 15 5 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾ປ ാᕷሙ䛾ᅇ䛿䚸㖔ᴗ䛜せ ⏘ᴗ䛷䛒䜛ᕞ䜘䜚┠ぬ䛧䛔䚹 䝦䝹䝇䜿䜰 ᑠᴗ 12 4 4 3 3 〇㐀ᴗ ⛉Ꮫᢏ⾡ 9 ᘓタᴗ 2 2 ᩍ⫱⏘ᴗ 6 1 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾ኻ ᴗ⋡䛿す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛻ḟ 䛔䛷ప䛔䚹 1 㔠⼥ᴗ 3 0 -1 Jan-00 7 0 NSW %y/y, 3䞄᭶ᖹᆒ -1 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09 Jan-12 㖔ᴗ 0 Nov-00 Nov-03 Nov-06 Nov-09 Nov-12 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞᨻᗓ䛾㈈ᨻᡓ␎ • 2011ᖺ3᭶䚸ಖᏲ㐃ྜ䠄⮬⏤ඪ䞉ᅜẸඪ䠅䛻ᨻᶒ௦ • 2012ᖺ㈈ᨻ㈐௵ἲ – ಙ⏝᱁䛡 “AAA” ⥔ᣢ䜢බ⣙ • 2䛴䛾ᇶᮏ᪉㔪䛻ᇶ䛵䛟㈈ᨻᡓ␎ 1. ṓฟఙ䜃⋡䛾పῶ ᣢ⥆ྍ⬟䛺㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ 2. 䜲䞁䝣䝷䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛾㈨㔠※䛸䛧䛶䚸㈨⏘༷ཬ䜃䝸䞊䝇䠄⬺ሷ䝥䝷䞁䝖䜔 䠅䛻 ຍ䛘䚸බඹཬ䜃Ẹ㛫䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾മๆ䜢Ⓨ⾜ 8 / Presentation Title ᶵᐦ㈨ᩱ ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 35 2012ᖺ㈈ᨻ㈐௵ἲ 2012ᖺ㈈ᨻ㈐௵ἲ䛿䚸ಙ⏝᱁䛡“AAA”䛸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾ᕞ Ẹ䜈䛾䝃䞊䝡䝇ᥦ౪䜢⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䛾䛻ᚲせ䛺䚸㈈ᨻ㈐௵ཬ䜃ᡓ␎䛾ᯟ⤌䜏 䜢☜❧䚹 ྠἲ䛾ᇶᮏ᪉㔪䛿䚸௨ୗ䛾᪉ἲ䛻䜘䜚䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾ಙ⏝᱁䛡 “AAA”䛾⥔ᣢ䜢ᅗ䜛䛣䛸䠖 • 2䛴䛾㈈ᨻ┠ᶆ䠖 ± ṓฟఙ䜃⋡䛜㛗ᮇⓗ䛺ṓධఙ䜃⋡䜢ୖᅇ䜙䛺䛔䜘䛖䛻䛩䜛䚹 ± 2030ᖺ䜎䛷䛻ᮍ✚❧㏥⫋ᖺ㔠മົ䜢ゎᾘ䛩䜛䚹 • 3䛴䛾ᇶᮏ᪉㔪䠖 ± ㈐௵䛒䜛ᣢ⥆ྍ⬟䛺ᨭฟ䚸ㄢ⛯䚸ᢞ㈨ ± ຠᯝⓗ䛺㈈ົཬ䜃㈨⏘⟶⌮ ± ୡ௦㛫බᖹᛶ䛾ᐇ⌧ • ྠἲ䛿䚸ᖺḟண⟬ሗ࿌᭩䛷┠ᶆ䜔ᇶᮏ᪉㔪䛾㐙⾜䜢ሗ࿌䛩䜛䛣䛸䜢⩏ົ䛡䛶 䛚䜚䚸㐩ᡂ䛷䛝䛺䛔ሙྜ䛿ᨵၿ⟇䜢ồ䜑䜛䚹 9 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ ㈈ᨻ䛾Ᏻᐃᛶ ṓධ䛜ῶᑡ䛩䜛୰䚸ṓฟ䜢๐ῶ䛩䜛䛣䛸䛻䜘䜚 ㈈ᨻ䛾Ᏻᐃᛶ䛿ᵓ⠏䛥䜜䛯 ᇶ♏ⓗ*ṓධཬ䜃ṓฟఙ䜃⋡ – 4ᖺ⛣ືᖹᆒ ᖺ⋡% 7.5 6.7 7.0 7.3 6.5 5.9 6.0 5.8 6.0 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.0 5.1 5.3 4.5 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.5 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 ᇶ♏ⓗṓධ 2012-13 2013-14 4.1 2014-15 3.6 2015-16 3.8 2016-17 ᇶ♏ⓗṓฟ • 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㐃㑥䛾㈈ᨻฟື䚸.㐨㊰⿵ຓ㔠䛾ᮇㄪᩚཬ䜃䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ィᇶ‽ጤဨ䛻䜘䜛AASB119ྕ䛂ᚑᴗဨ⤥䛃䛾ኚ᭦䛻䜘䜛ᙳ㡪䜢㝖䛟䚹 10 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 36 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ ண⟬ᐇ⦼ 2013ᖺᗘ䛾㈈ᨻぢ㏻䛧䛿ഹ 䛛䛺㉥Ꮠ䛰䛜䚸䛭䛾ᚋ䛿㯮Ꮠ ᅇ䛩䜛ぢ㎸䜏 ண⟬ᐇ⦼ 2000ᖺᗘ 㹼 2016ᖺᗘ $bn 2.0 1.5 䛂䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ ᨻᗓ䛿䚸ᚋ䚸ᣢ⥆ྍ⬟䛺㈈ ᨻ㯮Ꮠᐇ⌧䛻ᑾຊ䛩䜛䚹䛧䛛 䛧⌧ᐇⓗ䛻䛿䚸ୡ⏺⤒῭䛾ᙳ 㡪䜢ච䜜䜛䛣䛸䛿䛷䛝䛪䚸ᚲ せ䛸䛺䜜䜀᭦䛻ೝ⣙⟇䜢ㅮ䛨 䜛䛣䛸䜒⪃៖䛩䜛䛃䠄䝙䝳䞊䝃 䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞᨻᗓ䝬䜲 䜽䞉䝧䜰䞊䝗㈈ົ⮧䠅 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 f/c f/c f/c f/c 11 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ ㈨⏘༷ 䝪䝍䝙䞊 䚸䜿䞁䝤䝷 䛾䝸䞊䝇䠄50.7൨䝗䝹䠅 • 2013ᖺ4᭶䚸䝸䞊䝇 • ⣙40൨䝗䝹䛾⣧ධ䛿NSAᕞᨻᗓ䛾䜲䞁䝣䝷䝣䜯䞁䝗 “Restart NSW”䛻ᢞ㈨ • 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞᨻᗓ䛿䚸䝙䝳䞊䜻䝱䝑䝇䝹 䛾㛗ᮇ䝸䞊䝇䜢㐍䜑䜛䚹 㟁ຊ㈨⏘ • 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞᨻᗓ䛿䚸ಖ᭷䛩䜛㟁ຊ㈨⏘䛾༷䜢㏻䛨䚸᭦䛻30൨䝗䝹 ㉸䛾㈨㔠ㄪ㐩䜢ぢ㎸䜐䚹 • ྠᨻᗓ䛿᮶ᖺ༙䜀䜎䛷䛻 “Gentrader”䛾㈨⏘༷䛾䜢┠ᣦ䛩 䚹 12 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 37 ᱁ᶵ㛵䛾ぢゎ 㛗ᮇമົ 䝗䝹ᘓ䛶 㛗ᮇമົ እ㈌ᘓ䛶 ▷ᮇമົ Standard and Poor’s AAA (ぢ㏻䛧 䛂䝛䜺䝔䜱䝤䛃) AAA (ぢ㏻䛧 䛂䝛䜺䝔䜱䝤䛃) A-1+ Moody’s Aaa Aaa Prime-1 Fitch AAA AAA F1+ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾᱁䛡䛿䚸ྠᕞ䛜㇏䛛 䛷ከᵝ䛺⤒῭䚸ᘓタⓗ䛺㈈ᨻ⟶⌮䚸ඃ䜜䛯ὶືᛶỈ ‽䚸㢮䜎䜜䛺䜛䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ᕷሙ䜈䛾䜰䜽䝉 䝇䜢᭷䛩䜛䛣䛸䛻ຍ䛘䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛜䚸㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䞉 ᕞᨻᗓ㛫㛵ಀ䜢┘ど䛩䜛ᙉᅛ䛺⾜ᨻ⤌⧊䜢䜒䛴䛣䛸 䜢ᫎ䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䛒䜛䚹䛭䛾୍᪉䛷䚸ཝ䛧䛔ṓධ⎔ቃ 䛸䚸ᕞᨻᗓ䛾䜲䞁䝣䝷ᩚഛ㐜ᘏᑐᛂᥐ⨨䛾ᚲせᛶ䛻 ㉳ᅉ䛩䜛䚸ண⟬䛾ᰂ㌾ᛶ㊊ཬ䜃෪䛘䛺ᐇ⦼䛸䛔 䛖䝬䜲䝘䝇㠃䜒ᣦ䛫䛦䜛䜢ᚓ䛺䛔䚹 2012ᖺ10᭶䚸Standard & Poor’s 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ䛾᱁䛡䛿䚸ྠᕞ䛾ከᵝ 䛺⤒῭ᇶ┙䚸┦ᙜ䛾ண⟬䛾ᰂ㌾ᛶཬ䜃㐃㑥ᨻᗓ䛛䜙 䛾Ᏻୟ䛴ண ྍ⬟䛺⿵ຓ㔠䜢ᫎ䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䛒 䜛䚹䜎䛯ྠᕞ䛜ṓฟఙ䜃⋡䛾๐ῶ䜢㏻䛨䛶䚸୰ᮇⓗ䛻 ㈈ᨻ㉥Ꮠඞ᭹䛻ྲྀ䜚⤌䜣䛷䛔䜛䛣䛸䜒᱁䛡䛻ᫎ䛧 䛶䛔䜛䚹 2013ᖺ5᭶䚸Moody’s 13 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䛾㈨㔠ㄪ㐩 ධ㢳ᐈ䛾䝻䞊䞁䛾䝕䝳䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁䜢୍⮴䛥䛫䜛 • 㛗ᮇമๆ䛾Ⓨ⾜ᡓ␎䚹 • 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䛾㈇മᖹᆒᮇ㛫䛿7ᖺ䛻㏆ 䛵䛔䛶䛔䜛䚹 ཱྀ䛾䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മⓎ⾜䛻䜘䜚ὶືᛶ䜢⥔ᣢ䛥䛫䜛 • 2013ᖺᗘ䛻2014ᖺ䚸2019ᖺ䚸2023ᖺ‶ᮇ䛾᪂Ⓨമ䜢Ⓨ⾜ • ┤㏆䛷䛿᪂䛯䛻2021ᖺ‶ᮇ䛾䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ䜢Ⓨ⾜ • ྡ┠䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ䛾Ⓨ⾜ṧ㧗䛿500൨䝗䝹㉸ • 3ᖺ≀ኚືമ25൨䝗䝹䜢Ⓨ⾜ ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩䜢ከᵝ䛥䛫䜛 • 䜲䞁䝣䝺㐃ືമ䛾ṧ㧗䛿55൨䝗䝹㉸䜎䛷ቑຍ 14 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 38 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ ㈈ົබ♫䛿䚸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇 䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞᨻᗓ䛾බ⣙䛷 䛒䜛ಙ⏝᱁䛡“AAA”䛾⥔ ᣢ䜢ᐇ⌧䛩䜛䜉䛟㈨㔠ㄪ㐩 ᡓ␎䜢ᵓ⠏䛩䜛䚹 ᙜᮇධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 ᖺኸண⟬ ᭶᪥᭱⤊ぢ㏻䛧 10൨䝗䝹 ண⟬ぢ㏻䛧 ൨䝗䝹 ൨䝗䝹 ൨䝗䝹 㢳ᐈ䜈䛾᪂つ㈚ฟ 6.8 3.4 4.9 ண‶ᮇ 㛗ᮇ ▷ᮇ 0.5 3.6 0.5 3.0 4.0 3.0 ㈨㔠వ (1.0) (1.0) (3.6) 9.9 5.9 8.3 ㄪ㐩ᚲせ㢠 2013ᖺ6᭶30᪥䜎䛷䛾 ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ண 9.5 ▷ᮇ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ᚲせ㢠 3.0 㛗ᮇ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ᚲせ㢠 5.3 15 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 㛗ᮇ㈨㔠䛾㈨㔠※ ㈨㔠※ 2013ᖺ6᭶30᪥㎾䛾 㛗ᮇ㈨㔠ண㢠 10൨䝗䝹 2014ᖺᗘ䛾䝺䞁䝆 10൨䝗䝹 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ 5.1 3.0 – 6.0 䜻䝱䝢䝍䝹䞉䜲䞁䝕䝑䜽䝇മ 0.4 0.2 – 0.8 㠀䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ* 1.0 0.2 – 1.2 ྜィ 6.5 5.3 * 㠀䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ䛿EMTNമ䚸䛭䛾䜸䝣䝅䝵䜰䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䚸䝽䝷䝍മ䜢ྵ䜐 16 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 39 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ - Ⓨ⾜῭മๆ 2013ᖺ8᭶⌧ᅾ 䛭䛾 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ 䝸䞁䜽മ 17 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ - ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ ົබ♫䛾മົ䛿බ♫㈨㔠ㄪ 㐩ἲ(PAFA Act)䛻ᇶ䛵䛝 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞᨻ ᗓ䛻ಖド䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛Ⅽ䚸ྠ♫ 䛾ධ㏉῭䛿㏣ຍⓗ䛻㆟ ᢎㄆ䜢ᚓ䜛ᚲせ䛜䛺䛔 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈 ᕞ㈈ᨻබ♫ AAA/Aaa 䝗䝹ᘓ䛶 ᅜෆമ 䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䞉 䜶䜽䝇䝏䜵䞁䝆മ $1.3 bn $56.4bn 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ $46.2bn CPI 㐃ືമ $5.6bn ⣙᮰ᡭᙧ Ꮚ※Ἠ⛯㠀ㄢ⛯ ᅜෆ䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ 䛾Ⓨ⾜ 䠄Ꮚ※Ἠ⛯䛿 㐺⏝䛫䛪䠅 . 䝴䞊䝻䞉 䝁䝬䞊䝅䝱䝹䞉 䝨䞊䝟䞊 䝴䞊䝻MTN $2.0bn $2.1bn 䝗䝹ᘓ䛶ཬ䜃 እ㈌ᘓ䛶 ᘬドๆ䛾Ⓨ⾜ 䝻䞁䝗䞁ୖሙ䛾 䝗䝹ᘓ䛶ཬ䜃 እ㈌ᘓ䛶 䝴䞊䝻MTN 4.6bn $ 18 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 40 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ᪥ᮏ䛻䛚䛡䜛 Ⓨ⾜Ⓩ㘓䜢ά⏝ US MTN $0bn . SEC Ⓩ㘓 . 䝬䝹䝏䞉䜹䝺䞁䝅䞊 䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛾ዎ⣙᭩䛿䝙䝳䞊 䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 䛾䜴䜵䝤䝃䜲䝖ୖ (www.tcorp.nsw.gov.au)ཪ䛿 ౫㢗䛻䜘䜚㜀ぴྍ⬟ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫മ䛾ಖ᭷ᢞ㈨ᐙ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫മ䛾ಖ᭷ᢞ㈨ᐙ ᪥ᮏ䛾ᢞ㈨㢳ၥ 11% 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾ᢞ㈨㢳ၥ 14% 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䛾㖟⾜ 35% 䜸䝣䝅䝵䜰ᢞ㈨㢳ၥ 䠄᪥ᮏ䜢㝖䛟䠅 17% ୰ኸ㖟⾜ 23% 19 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䝇䝥䝺䝑䝗䛾㛗 ᮇぢ㏻䛧 2013ᖺ9᭶⌧ᅾ ࢽ࣮ࣗࢧ࢘ࢫ࢙࣮࢘ࣝࢬᕞ-㐃㑥 5ᖺമࢫࣉࣞࢵࢻ % 1.6 ฟᡤ: RBA F2 1.4 1.2 ᚑ᮶䚸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈 ᕞമ䞉䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㐃㑥മ䛾䝇 䝥䝺䝑䝗䛿䚸20bps䡚40bps䛷᥎ ⛣ 2ᗘ䛻䜟䛯䜛㐃㑥ᨻᗓമ䛸䛾䝇 䝥䝺䝑䝗䛾ᛴ㦐䛿䝬䜽䝻せᅉ 䠄2009ᖺ䛾ୡ⏺㔠⼥༴ᶵ䚸 2011ᖺ䛾Ḣᕞ༴ᶵ䠅䛻䜘䜛ᙳ㡪 䛷䛒䜚䚸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈 ᕞ䛻㉳ᅉ䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䛿䛺䛔 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 ┤㏆䛾䝇䝥䝺䝑䝗䛿ୡ⏺⤒῭䛾 ᬒἣឤ䛾ᅇ䜢ཷ䛡⦰ᑠഴྥ 0.2 0.0 -0.2 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 20 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 41 AAA᱁䛾ᅜമᅇ䜚 AAA᱁ࡢᅜമᅇࡾ ࣮ࣝࢻ࣭࣮࢝ࣈ % NSW 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇 % 5.0 5.0 䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ TCorp 11᭶4᪥ Australia 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 4.5 4.5 Singapore 䝅䞁䜺䝫䞊䝹 Moody’s䚸S&P䛾୧♫䛛䜙 “AAA”᱁䛡䜢䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛 ᅜ䛿ഹ䛛10䞄ᅜ䛾䜏䚹䝙䝳䞊䝃 䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞമ䛸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷 䝸䜰ᅜമ䛾ᅇ䜚䛿 “AAA”᱁䛾 ᅜമ䛾୰䛷᭱䜒㧗ᅇ䜚䛷䛒 䜛䚹 䝇䝽䝑䝥 Canada 䜹䝘䝎 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 Denmark 䝕䞁䝬䞊䜽 䜻䝱䝑䝅䝳 Norway 䝜䝹䜴䜵䞊 Sweden 䝇䜴䜵䞊䝕䞁 Switz 10ᖺമ 3.0 3.0 䝇䜲䝇 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᅜമ Finland * 䝣䜱䞁䝷䞁䝗 Germany * 2.5 2.5 䝗䜲䝒 *䝴䞊䝻ຍ┕ᅜ N'lands * ṧᏑᮇ㛫 (ᖺ) 䜸䝷䞁䝎 2.0 2.0 0 2 4 % 6 1 21 / ᢞ㈨ᐙ㐠⏝䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ᶵᐦ㈨ᩱ ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛿ሗ※䛸䛧䛶䛾䜏㓄ᕸ䛥䜜䛯䜒䛾䛷䛒䜚䚸⏝⪅䛾䜏䛻ྥ䛡䛶సᡂ䛥䜜䛯䜒䛾䛷䛩䚹ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛿䝖䝺䞊䝕䜱䞁䜾ཬ䜃䛭䛾䝡䝆䝛䝇┠ⓗ䛻 This material is provided for information purposes only and is intended for your use only. The material should not be relied on for trading or ⏝䛥䜜䜛䜒䛾䛷䛿䛒䜚䜎䛫䜣䚹ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛿ᢞ㈨䜰䝗䝞䜲䝇䜢⾜䛖䜒䛾䛷䛿䛺䛟䚸䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫(TCorp)䛿ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛻グ㍕䛥䜜䛯ዴఱ other business purposes. The material does not constitute investment advice and NSW Treasury Corporation (TCorp) does not make any 䛺䜛ၟရཬ䜃ྲྀᘬ䛾ᣢ⥆ྍ⬟ᛶ䛻䛴䛔䛶᥎ዡ䛧䛶䛚䜚䜎䛫䜣䚹ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛿ᑗ᮶䛾㇟䜢ぢ㏻䛩ᡈ䛔䛿ண 䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䛿䛒䜚䜎䛫䜣䚹㐣ཤ䛾䝟䝣䜷䞊 recommendation as to the suitability of any of the products or transactions mentioned. This material is not intended to forecast or predict 䝬䞁䝇䛿ᑗ᮶䛾⤖ᯝ䜢ಖド䛺䛔䛧♧၀䛧䛶䛔䜛䜒䛾䛷䛿䛒䜚䜎䛫䜣䚹ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛻グ㍕䛥䜜䛯ዴఱ䛺䜛ண 䜔ぢゎ䜒䚸ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛜సᡂ䛥䜜䛯᪥Ⅼ䛻䛚䛔 future events. Past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results. Any estimates and opinions contained in this material 䛶䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䛜ุ᩿䛧䛯䜒䛾䛷䛒䜚䚸ண࿌䛺䛧䛻ኚ᭦䛩䜛䛣䛸䛜䛒䜚䜎䛩䚹䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䛿ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛾 constitute TCorp’s judgement as at the date the material is made available and may be subject to change without notice. TCorp does not ሗཪ䛿䝕䞊䝍䛾ṇ☜ᛶ䚸᭱᪂ᛶ䚸ಙ㢗ᛶ䚸ᛶ䛻㛵䛧䛶୍ษಖド䛧䜎䛫䜣䚹䜎䛯ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛾ሗཪ䛿䝕䞊䝍䛻౫ᣐ䛧䛯⤖ᯝ⏕䛨䛯ዴఱ䛺䜛ᦆᐖ䛻 guarantee the accuracy, timeliness, reliability or completeness of the information or data and will not be liable for any errors or actions taken 㛵䛩䜛㈐௵䜒㈇䛔䜎䛫䜣䚹 in reliance on the information or data. Level 22, Governor Phillip Tower, 1 Farrer Place SYDNEY NSW 2000, AUSTRALIA T: +61 2 9325 9325 F: +61 2 9325 9333 W: tcorp.nsw.gov.au ABN: 99 095 235 825 42 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᨻᗓമๆ䝣䜷䞊䝷䝮 2013ᖺ12᭶ ㆟㢟 ௨ୗ3ศ㔝䛻㛵䛧䛶䛤ㄝ᫂⮴䛧䜎䛩: 1. 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛾┠ᶆཬ䜃㈈ົ≧ἣ 2. 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䛾ᵓ㐀䛸䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 3. 2014ᖺ௨㝆䛾ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 2 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 43 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ – ㈈ᨻ㐠Ⴀᡓ␎ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛾୰ᮇⓗ㈈ᨻ㐠Ⴀᡓ␎ ㈈ᨻᨻ⟇ 䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍䞊 ᱁䛡 AAA/Aaa᱁䛡䜢ୗᨭ䛘䛩䜛ᙉᅛ䛺㈈ᨻᇶ┙ཬ䜃⤒῭ᡓ␎䜢⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䚹 ㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ 䜲䞁䝣䝷ཬ䜃മົ䝟䝷䝯䞊䝍䞊䛸ᩚྜᛶ䜢䛸䜚䛴䛴䚸ᑡ䛺䛟䛸䜒1൨䝗䝹䛾 䝛䝑䝖㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ䜢⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䚹 䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ㈨ ᕞෆ⥲⏕⏘(GSP)䛾1.3䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖䠄5ᖺ㛫䛾⛣ືᖹᆒ䛷⟬ฟ䠅䛾䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ ㈨ ⣧മົ 2022ᖺ䜎䛷䛾10ᖺ㛫䛷䚸GSP䝧䞊䝇䛾⣧ᨻᗓമົ䜢๐ῶ䛩䜛䚹 ᖺ㔠മົ 2035ᖺ䜎䛷䛻ᖺ㔠✚❧㊊㢠䜢䛩䜉䛶ゎᾘ䛩䜛䚹 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 3 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ – ᱁䛡 䝇䝍䞁䝎䞊䝗䞉䜰䞁䝗䞉䝥䜰䞊䝈䛻䜘䜛᱁䛡 2013ᖺ11᭶8᪥䛾ྠ᱁䛡ᶵ㛵䛾䝁䝯䞁䝖䠖 䛂ᘢ♫䛿䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛾㛗ᮇཬ䜃▷ᮇമ䛾᱁䛡䜢’AAA/A-1+’䛸䛧䛯䚹ྠᨻᗓ䛿 ⌧ᅾṓධ䛻㛵䛩䜛ㄢ㢟䛻ྲྀ䜚⤌䜐୰䚸ᘬ䛝⥆䛝㈈ᨻつᚊ䜢䛻⥔ᣢ䛩䜛䛯䜑䚸㈤ 㔠ୖ᪼䜔බົဨᩘ䛾๐ῶ䛸䛔䛳䛯୍㐃䛾ཝ䛧䛔ᨻⓗỴ᩿䜢ୗ䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ⮬య䛾㈈ᨻୖ䛾ᙉ䜏䛿䚸ྠᨻᗓ䛜മົ䜔ὶືᛶ䛾⟶⌮䛻㈼᫂䛻 ྲྀ䜚⤌䜣䛷䛔䜛䛣䛸䜔୰㛗ᮇⓗ䛺䝇䝟䞁䛷㈈ᨻཬ䜃⤒῭ᡓ␎䜢⟇ᐃ䛧䛶䛔䜛䛣䛸䛻 ぢ䛶䛸䜜䜛䚹ྠᨻᗓ䛿䚸ᚑ᮶䛛䜙ᑗ᮶ⓗ䛻ྠᕞ䛾⏕⏘ᛶྥୖ䜢䜒䛯䜙䛩⤒῭ᨵ㠉䛻 ྲྀ䜚⤌䜣䛷䛝䛶䛚䜚䚸ᘢ♫䛸䛧䛶䛿⌧ᅾ䛾㆟䛜⥆⾜䛩䜛㛫䛿㈈ᨻつᚊ䜢⥔ᣢ䛧䛶 䛔䛟ጼໃ䛻ኚ䛿䛺䛔䛸ぢ䛶䛔䜛䚹䛃 䝮䞊䝕䜱䞊䝈䞉䜲䞁䝧䝇䝍䞊䝈䞉䝃䞊䝡䝇䛻䜘䜛᱁䛡 2013ᖺ5᭶7᪥䛾ྠ᱁䛡ᶵ㛵䛾䝁䝯䞁䝖䠖 䛂ᘢ♫䛿䚸⤒ᖖᨭཬ䜃㈨ᮏᨭ䛾᪉䜢ሀᐇ䛻⟶⌮䛩䜛䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛾⌧⾜ 䛾ጼໃ䛿䚸ᆒ⾮䛾䛸䜜䛯㈈ᨻ䜢㐩ᡂ䛩䜛䛻䛒䛯䜚ኚ㔜せ䛰䛸ᤊ䛘䛶䛔䜛䚹䛣䛾ほ Ⅼ䛛䜙䛩䜛䛸䚸ྠᨻᗓ䛿䚸䛣䛣ᩘᖺ㛫䛷ᨭฟ䛾ఙ䜃䛾䝨䞊䝇䜢㕌䛩䜛䛣䛸䛜䛷䛝䛶 䛔䜛䚹䛃 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 44 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 4 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ – ከᵝᛶ䛸ᰂ㌾ᛶ䜢ഛ䛘䛯⤒῭ 2011-12ᖺ䛻䛚䛡䜛ᕞᨻᗓ䛾⏘ᴗู⢒ຍ౯್ ᴗྥ䛡䝃䞊䝡䝇ᴗ ᐙᗞྥ䛡䝃䞊䝡䝇ᴗ ㎰ᯘ⁺ᴗ 〇㐀ᴗ ≀ὶ බ┈ᴗ ᘓタᴗ 㖔ᴗ 䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖 ฟ: 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 2013ᖺ12᭶ 5 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ – ㈈※ 2013-14ᖺ䛾ධ 䛭䛾, 4.1% ᕞᨻᗓ䛾⛯ไୖ䛾≌ᘬᙺ ≀ရ䝃䞊䝡䝇 ⛯, 22.7% ᕞ⛯, 32.7% ⥲㢠503൨䝗䝹 • • • • • ⤥⛯ ᅵᆅㆡΏ⛯ ⮬ື㌴⛯ ㉃༤⛯ ᅵᆅ⛯ 31% 21% 12% 12% 10% 㓄ᙜ䚸TER ཬ䜃ᜥ 3.1% ᅜ䛛䜙䛾⿵ຓ㔠 23.6% ୍⯡ᾘ㈝㈈䞉 䝃䞊䝡䝇䛾 ୖ, 13.8% ฟ: 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ ㈈ົ䞉㈈ᨻ┬ 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 6 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 45 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ – ṓධ䞉ṓฟ䛾ఙ䜃 ᖺ㛫䛾ṓධቑ ᖺ㛫䛾ṓฟቑ 15 6 ᖹᆒ 4.1% 2013-14ᖺ 䛛䜙 2016-17 ᖺ䛾ᮇ㛫 ᖹᆒ 3.2% 2010-11ᖺ䛛䜙 2012-13ᖺ䛾ᮇ㛫 9 ᖹᆒ 8.0% 2000-01 ᖺ䛛䜙 2009-10ᖺ䛾ᮇ㛫 䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖 ᖹᆒ 7.3% 2000-01ᖺ䛛䜙 2009-10ᖺ䛾ᮇ㛫 ᖹᆒ 2.9% 2010-11ᖺ䛛䜙 2012-13ᖺ䛾ᮇ㛫 䝟䞊䝉䞁䝖 12 ண⟬䛸 ᑗ᮶ண ண⟬䛸 ᑗ᮶ண ᖹᆒ 2.7% 2013-14 ᖺ 䛛䜙 201617ᖺ䛾ᮇ㛫 3 0 ฟ: 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ ㈈ົ䞉㈈ᨻ┬ (a) 2013ᖺ1᭶䛛䜙䛾ᕞィᇶ‽(AASB)䠍䠍䠕䜈䛾ኚ᭦䛻䜘䜛ᙳ㡪䜢⪃៖䛧䛶䛔䛺䛔䚹 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 7 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ – ㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ 100䝗䝹 ㈈ᨻぢ㏻䛧 ண⟬ ᐇ⦼䠄10൨䝗䝹䠅 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 46 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 2013-14ᖺ䛾ண⟬ 8 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ – 䜲䞁䝣䝷 ᨻᗓ䛻䜘䜛䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ㈨ (a) 2011-12 ᐇ⦼ 5.4 10൨䝗䝹 2012-13 ಟṇ 5.4 2013-14 ィ⏬ 6.1 2014-15 ண 6.6 2015-16 ண 4.0 2016-17 ண 3.5 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ⥲ྜ⒴䝉䞁䝍䞊 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ䛾㕲㐨䛾䜲䞁䝣䝷䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖 M80㧗㏿㐨㊰䛾ᨵಟ ᪂䝧䞁䝕䜱䝂㝔 せ㒔ᕷ㒊䛾㋃ษ䠄䝇䝥䝸䞁䝧䞊䝹䚸䝭䝑䝏䝱䝮䚸䝃䞁䝅䝱䜲䞁䠅 䝻䜲䝲䝹䞉䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰䞁║⛉䞉⪥㰯⛉㝔 䝪䝑䜽䝇䞉䝠䝹㝔 䝰䝘䝅䝳Ꮚ౪㝔 ᮾす㐃⤡㐨㊰䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䠄➨୍ẁ㝵䠅 ᮾす㐃⤡㐨㊰䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䠄➨୍ẁ㝵䠅 ᮾす㐃⤡㐨㊰䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䠄➨୍ẁ㝵䠅 ฟ: 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ ㈈ົ䞉㈈ᨻ┬ (a) ᨻᗓ䛾୍⯡⣧䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ㈨㢠ཬ䜃䝟䞊䝖䝘䞊䝅䝑䝥䞉䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰䛾䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䠄ᐁẸ䝟䞊䝖䝘䞊䝅䝑䝥䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛻ᑐ䛩䜛䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛾ᢞ㈨ᴗ䠅 䛻㛵䛩䜛ண䜻䝱䝑䝅䝳䝣䝻䞊䜢ྵ䜐䛜䚸ᅜ㐀䜚-⤒῭่⃭⟇䛾୍⎔䛾බႠఫᏯᵓ䜔ᩍ⫱㠉ᵓ⠏䛻㛵䛩䜛୍ᗘ㝈䜚䛾ᬒẼ่⃭⟇䛿ྵ䜎䛺䛔䚹 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 9 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ (TCV) • 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ䛾බⓗ㔠⼥䝃䞊䝡䝇ཬ䜃㈈ົ㢳ၥ䜢୍ඖ⟶⌮䛧䛶⾜䛖බ♫䛸䛧䛶 1993ᖺ1᭶1᪥䛻タ❧䚹 - 㔠⼥ᕷሙ䜈䛾༢⊂❆ཱྀ - ⊂❧䛧䛯ጤဨ䛜┤᥋䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົ┬䛻䝺䝫䞊䝖䛩䜛యไ • 㢳ᐈ䛷䛒䜛䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䚸ᨻᗓᶵ㛵ཬ䜃ᨻᗓ䛾ྛ㒊⨫䛻ᑐ䛧䛶㈈ົୖ䛾䝸䝇䜽 ⟶⌮䜢⾜䛖䜘䛖ጤク䛥䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹 • 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛻䜘䜛മົಖド • ಖドෆᐜ TCV䛾ධ㔠ཬ䜃ドๆ䛿1992ᖺ䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ἲ’➨32᮲(1)䛻ᇶ䛵䛝䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰 ᕞᨻᗓ䛜ಖド䛩䜛䚹 - 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛿┤᥋䚸ୟ䛴䚸↓᮲௳䛷ಖド䛧䚸බമᇶ㔠䛛䜙ᨭᡶ䛖䚹 - • AAA/Aaa ᱁䛡 (Ᏻᐃⓗ) • Ꮚ※Ἠㄢ⛯㐺⏝እ 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 10 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 47 TCV – ㈨㔠※ 䝗䝹 䝜䞊䝖䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 䝴䞊䝻䞉䝭䝕䜱䜰䝮䞉 䝍䞊䝮䞉䝜䞊䝖 䝗䝹 ⣙᮰ᡭᙧ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 䝴䞊䝻䞉䝁䝬䞊䝅䝱䝹䞉 䝨䞊䝟䞊䞉䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 • • • • • 䝟䝛䝹䞉䝯䞁䝞䞊䛸䛧䛶13♫䛾䝕䜱䞊䝷䞊 2014-2026ᖺ䛻ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䜢㏄䛘䜛8䛴䛾䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽䞉䝜䞊䝖䜢Ⓨ⾜ ᭱పṧ㧗┠ᶆ40-50൨䝗䝹 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽䞉䝜䞊䝖ṧ㧗325൨䝗䝹 ⚾ເമṧ㧗33൨䝗䝹 • 30൨⡿䝗䝹 • 」ᩘ㏻㈌ᘓ䛶䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 • ṧ㧗9,500䝗䝹 • 50൨䝗䝹䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 • ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛿1᪥䛛䜙365᪥䜎䛷 • ṧ㧗7൨9,000䝗䝹 • • • • 50൨⡿䝗䝹 」ᩘ㏻㈌ᘓ䛶 ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛿1᪥䛛䜙365᪥䜎䛷 ṧ㧗5,100䝗䝗䝹┦ᙜ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 2013ᖺ12᭶ 11 TCV മๆ䛾䜚ᤍ䛝䛸ฟ᮶㧗 dsമๆ㉎ධ⪅ ;ணͿ せ㖟⾜ MajorBank 䛭䛾ㄆྍ㡸㔠ཷධᶵ㛵 OtherADI ᅜ㝿ᢞ㈨ᐙ InternationalInvestors ୰ኸ㖟⾜ ୰ኸ㖟⾜ CentralBank ᅜෆ䛾㈨⏘㐠⏝♫ DomesticAssetManager 䛭䛾䛾ᨻᗓ OtherGovt ฟ᮶㧗䛾ᅜ㝿ẚ㍑ ϮϬϭϯͲϭϰᖺ ᪥ᮏ䜢㝖䛟䜰䝆䜰 NonJapanAsia ᪥ᮏ Japan Ḣᕞ Europe NorthAmerica 䜰䝯䝸䜹 4% 12% 34% 50% 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 48 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 12 TCV – 䝥䝷䜲䝬䝸䞊മົ䛾ᴫせ 2013ᖺ10᭶⌧ᅾ TCV ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩 ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛾ᴫせ 100䝗䝹 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 13 ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 – 2013/14 ண⟬ ண 100䝗䝹 ண 100䝗䝹 ண 100䝗䝹 ண 100䝗䝹 ᪂つ㈨㔠㟂せ ୍⯡䛾ᨻᗓ䝉䜽䝍䞊 ཧຍᙜᒁ ⼥㈨䛾䛘 TCV㈨㔠㟂せ 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 14 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 49 ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 – ᖺ㛫᥎ᐃ㢠 ㈨㔠㟂せ䛻ᑐ䛩䜛⼥㈨ᐇ≧ἣ 100䝗䝹 2013ᖺ12᭶ ྲྀᘬᐇ⋡ ㈚ฟ㔠䛾ṧᏑᮇ㛫ูṧ㧗 䠄ᕥ㍈) ᪂つᴗPA 䠄ᕥ㍈) ᪂つᴗண⟬䝉䜽䝍䞊 䠄ᕥ㍈) ᪂つཬ䜃⼥㈨ 䠄ᕥ㍈) ᖺ㛫䛾㈨㔠㟂せ 䠄ᕥ㍈) ྲྀᘬᐇ⋡ 䠄ྑ㍈) 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 15 ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 – ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩ᡓ␎ • ᅜෆ䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽䞉䝪䞁䝗䞉䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛿㈨㔠㟂せ䛾༙䜢‶䛯䛩䛸ᛮ䜟䜜䜛䚹 • 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽䞉䝪䞁䝗䞉䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䜢ᘏ㛗䛩䜛䛛䚸䜒䛧䛟䛿䚸ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛜2026ᖺ௨ 㝆䛾⚾ເമ䜢୍ᅇ㝈䜚Ⓨ⾜䛩䜛䛛䛾䛹䛱䜙䛛䛻䜘䜚䚸മົ‶ᮇᵓ㐀䛾䝕䝳䝺䞊䝅 䝵䞁䜢ᘏ㛗䛩䜛ᶵ䜢ᶍ⣴䛩䜛䚹 • ൾ㑏ᮇ㛫䛾䜀䜙䛴䛝䜢ῶ䜙䛧䚸䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛜᭱ᑠ㝈䛾ὶືᛶẚ⋡䜢☜ಖ䛷 䛝䜛䜘䛖䛻䛩䜛䛯䜑䚸䜘䜚ᑠつᶍ䛛䛴▷ᮇ䛾⚾ເമྲྀᘬ䜢3-4ᖺෆ䛻ᐇ䛩䜛䚹 • ኚືമ䛾䜘䛖䛺௦᭰ᵓ㐀䜢᭷䛩䜛ᡭẁ䛻䜘䜛㈨㔠ㄪ㐩䛻䛴䛔䛶䚸TCV䛜ཷ 䛡䜛䝸䝇䜽ཬ䜃䝞䝸䝳䞊䛾䝯䝸䝑䝖䛻ᇶ䛵䛔䛶ホ౯䛩䜛䚹 • 㠀䝗䝹ᕷሙ䛾ྛᕷሙ䛻䛚䛡䜛Ẽ㓄್䛸䛧䛶䛾౯᱁Ỉ‽䛛䜙䚸䝗䝹௨እ䛷䛾 Ⓨ⾜䛜ྍ⬟䛷䛒䜛䛣䛸䛜䜟䛛䜛䚹 • 䝴䞊䝻䞉䝁䝬䞊䝅䝱䝹䞉䝨䞊䝟䞊䞉䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮ཬ䜃ᅜෆ⣙᮰ᡭᙧ䛾䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛻䜘 䜛Ⓨ⾜㢠䛿᭱ᑠ㝈䛻ᢚ䛘䜛䚹 • 䜲䞁䝣䝺㐃ືമ䜢Ⓨ⾜䛩䜛ணᐃ䛿䛺䛔䚹 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 50 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 16 ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 –┠ᶆ䝕䝳䝺䞊䝅䝵䞁 TCV㈨㔠ㄪ㐩 ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛾ᴫせ 100䝗䝹 ┠ᶆ䛾Ⓨ⾜㢠 䛾ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 2013ᖺ12᭶ 17 ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 – 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മๆ 2013ᖺ10᭶⌧ᅾ 100䝗䝹 ண 䜲䞁䝕䝑䜽䝇 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䜸䝣䝅䝵䜰 䛭䛾䛾ᅜෆമๆ 䝗䝹ᘓ䛶ᅜෆമๆⓎ⾜ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ ணമົ⥲㢠 18 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 51 Summary ሀᐇ䛺ಙ⏝᱁䛡 • • ᱁䛡ᶵ㛵䛾䝇䝍䞁䝎䞊䝗䞉䜰䞁䝗䞉䝥䜰䞊䝈ཬ䜃䝮䞊䝕䜱䞊䝈䞉䜲䞁䝧䝇䝍䞊䝈䞉䝃䞊䝡䝇䛿䚸 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓമ䛾᱁䛡䜢AAA/Aaa䛸䛧䚸ᑗ᮶䛾ぢ㏻䛧䜒Ᏻᐃⓗ䛸䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᨻᗓ䛿ᙉᅛ䛺㈈ົᇶ┙䜢᭷䛩䜛ୖ䚸䝖䝸䝥䝹A᱁䜢ୗᨭ䛘䜛⤒῭ᡓ␎䜢᭷䛩䜛䚹 ᙉᅛ䛺㈈ົ≧ἣ • • • ከᵝ䛺⤒῭ᇶ┙ ⥅⥆ⓗ䛻㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ䛾ぢ㏻䛧 ᨭฟᢚไ䛾ᐇ⦼ ᙉᅛ䛺㈨㔠ㄪ㐩≧ἣ • • • • TCV 䛿2013ᖺᗘ䛾ண㈨㔠㟂せ䛾⣙60%䜢᪤䛻☜ಖ䛧䚸ᖜ䛻ඛྲྀ䜚䛩䜛ᙧ䛷㈨㔠ㄪ㐩 䜢㐍䜑䛶䛔䜛䚹 㛗ᮇⓗどⅬ䛛䜙䚸䜘䜚㛗ᮇ䛾മๆ䛾Ⓨ⾜䛻ὀຊ䛩䜛 (10-15ᖺ௨ୖ䛾മๆ) ᑠつᶍ䛷䜘䜚▷ᮇ䛾⚾ເമ䛾ྲྀᘬ䜢3-4ᖺෆ䛻ᐇ䛩䜛䚹 ᢞ㈨ᐙᇶ┙䛾ከᵝ䜢┠ᣦ䛩䛜䚸እ㈌䛷䛿Ⓨ⾜䛧䛺䛔䚹 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 19 㐃⤡ඛヲ⣽ Bill Whitford 䝬䝛䞊䝆䞁䜾䞉䝕䜱䝺䜽䝍䞊 Justin Lofting ㈈ົ㒊䝆䜵䝛䝷䝹䞉䝬䝛䞊䝆䝱䞊 Tel: +61 3 9651 4800 Email: [email protected] Tel: +61 3 9651 4828 Email: [email protected] 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 52 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 20 Thank you Disclaimer ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛿䚸ᅇ䛾䝣䜷䞊䝷䝮㛤ദⅬ䛻䛚䛔䛶䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫(TCV)䛜ಖ᭷䛩䜛䝕䞊䝍䛻ᇶ䛵䛝䚸䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ This publication is: provided for the benefit of TCV clients for general information purposes only, based on 䛾㢳ᐈྥ䛡ሗ※䛾┠ⓗ䛸䛧䛶䛾䜏సᡂ䛥䜜䛯䜒䛾䛷䛩䚹ᮏ㈨ᩱ䛻ྵ䜎䜜䜛ぢゎ䜔ண䛿ᑗ᮶䛾㐠⏝⤖ᯝ䛒䜛䛔䛿䝺䞊䝖䜢 facts and data available to TCV at the time of its preparation. 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Any reference to credit ratings has been provided solely for the information of “wholesale clients” and must not be directly or indirectly disclosed to “retail clients” within the meaning of section 761G of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). 2013ᖺ12᭶ 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 21 For more information on TCV, 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䛸䛭䛾䝃䞊 our products and services, 䝡䝇䛻䛴䛔䛶䛿䚸ୗグ䝃䜲䝖䜢䛤 please visit: ぴ䛟䛰䛥䛔䚹 www.tcv.vic.gov.au ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 53 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ䛾⤒῭䚸 ㈈ᨻᨻ⟇䛚䜘䜃 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䛾 ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 Philip Noble 㤳ᖍᇳ⾜ᙺဨ ⤒῭ᡂ㛗䜢⥆䛡䜛䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ 54 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 Ϯ 10൨䝗䝹䚸ᖺᖹᆒ 10൨䝗䝹䚸ᖺᖹᆒ ᚋ䛾⤒῭ᡂ㛗䛿㍺ฟ䛜≌ᘬ ᾏእ㍺ฟ /+6 ฟᡤ: 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ ㈈ົ㈠᫆┬ タഛᢞ㈨ 5+6 3 2015-16ᖺ䜎䛷䛻LNG䛜䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ䛷 2␒┠䛻ከ䛔㍺ฟရ┠䛸䛺䜛ぢ㎸䜏 10൨䝗䝹 LNG䛾㍺ฟ䛿 2015-16ᖺ䛻 100൨䝗䝹䜢 ㉸䛘䜛ぢ㎸䜏 ▼Ⅳ 䝧䞊䝇䝯䝍䝹 /1* ฟᡤ: ᕞ⤫ィᒁ㠀බ⾲ 䝕䞊䝍䠗 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗 ᕞ㈈ົ㈠᫆┬ 4 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 55 ከᵝ䛺⏘ᴗ䛜㞟䜎䜛䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ⤒῭ ㎰ᴗ ᩍ⫱䚸◊ಟ 䝦䝹䝇䜿䜰䞉 ♫ᢇຓ බⓗ䝉䜽䝍䞊䞉 බඹᴗ 〇㐀ᴗ 㐠㏦䞉㏻ಙᴗ 㔠⼥䞉 ື⏘䝃䞊䝡䝇ᴗ ᘓタᴗ ኳ↛㈨※ ༺䞉ᑠᴗ 䛭䛾 ฟᡤ: ᕞ⤫ィᒁ 5 ᘓタᴗ ㎰ᴗ Agriculture ほගᴗ ㈨※ 6 56 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 “AAA”᱁䛾ྲྀᚓ䜢බ⣙ 10൨䝗䝹 ᕞ䛾㈈ົᇶ┙䜢 ᨵၿ䛩䜛䛯䜑䚸 Ẹ㛫㒊㛛䛾ᢞ㈨ 䜢άⓎ䛥䛫䜛 䜶䝛䝹䜼䞊䜲䞁䝣䝷 ἲᚊ䚸Ᏻ䚸බ⾗Ᏻ ㏻䜲䞁䝣䝷 䛭䛾䜲䞁䝣䝷 ᩍ⫱䚸◊ಟ Ỉ䜲䞁䝣䝷 ಖ䚸ఫᏯ䚸䝁䝭䝳䝙䝔䜱䞊䝃䞊䝡䝇 ฟᡤ: 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ ㈈ົ㈠᫆┬ 7 ㈈ᨻ≧ἣ䜢ᨵၿ䛥䛫䚸ຠ⋡ⓗ䛺ṓฟ䜢බ⣙ ๓ᖺቑῶ⋡ (%) ṓฟఙ䜃⋡䛿 1998-99ᖺ௨᮶ 䛾పỈ‽ ᖺᡂ㛗⋡ ᖺ䜎䛷䛾ᖺᖹᆒᡂ㛗⋡ ᖺ௨㝆䛾ண⟬ᮇ㛫䛾ᖹᆒᡂ㛗⋡ ฟᡤ: 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ ㈈ົ㈠᫆┬ 8 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 57 100䝗䝹 2015-16ᖺ䜎䛷䛻㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ䛾ᐇ⌧䜢බ⣙ ⣧㐠Ⴀᨭ䠄ண 䠅 ㈈ᨻᨭ䠄ண 䠅 ⣧㐠Ⴀᨭ䠄ᐇ㝿䠅 ㈈ᨻᨭ䠄ᐇ㝿䠅 ฟᡤ: 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ ㈈ົ㈠᫆┬ 9 ᪂つⓎ⾜㢠䠄⣧㢠䠅䛿ῶᑡ 100䝗䝹 ண 㛗ᮇമົⓎ⾜ṧ㧗 㛗ᮇമົ䛾ṧ㧗䠄⣧㢠䠅 ᪂つ㈨㔠䠄⣧㢠䠅 10 58 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ὶືᛶ䛾☜ಖ䜢┠ⓗ䛸䛧䛯 䝗䝹ᘓ䛶䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ䛾Ⓨ⾜ 600൨䝗䝹䛾 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ 䜢Ⓨ⾜ணᐃ 144 A 100䝗䝹 144 A 144 A ൾ㑏᪥ † 144A 㐺⏝ 11 G20䛸䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ 䜴䜵䜲䝟 䜿䜰䞁䝈 2014ᖺ䛻20䛛ᅜ㈈ົ⮧䞉 ୰ኸ㖟⾜⥲㆟䠄G20䠅䜢 㛤ദணᐃ 䜿䜰䞁䝈 䝍䜴䞁䝈䝡䝹 䝬䜴䞁䝖 䜰䜲䝄 䝏䝱䞊䝍䞊䝈 䝍䝽䞊䝈 䝬䝑䜹䜲 䝻䝑䜽䝝䞁䝥䝖䞁 䜾䝷䝑䝗䝇䝖䞊䞁 䝲䝷䜹 䝞䞁䝎䝞䞊䜾 䜻䝹䝢䞊 䜹䝘䝬䝷 䝏䝱䞊䝹䝡䝹 䝖䜳䞊䞁䝞 䝂䞊䝹䝗䝁䞊䝇䝖 䝯䜰䝸䞊䝞䝷 䝤䝸䝇䝧䞁: 2014ᖺ䛻G20㤳⬻㆟䜢 㛤ദணᐃ 䝤䝸䝇䝧䞁 䝂䞊䝹䝗䞉䝁䞊䝇䝖 12 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 59 ヲ⣽ሗ www.qtc.qld.gov.au ᢞ㈨ᐙྥ䛡䜰䝑䝥䝕䞊䝖email [email protected] 䜰䝘䝸䝇䝖䞉䝉䞁䝍䞊䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗ᕞ䞉ᕞ䛾⤒῭ሗ䛚䜘䜃㔠⼥䝕䞊 䝍䜈䛾䜰䜽䝉䝇 ,QYHVWLQ47&䠖 iPad䝴䞊䝄䞊ྥ䛡䛻 App Store䛛䜙䝎䜴䞁䝻䞊䝗䛜ྍ⬟ 13 䛒䜚䛜䛸䛖䛤䛦䛔䜎䛧䛯 14 60 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ ㈈ົබ♫䠄WATC䠅 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㈈ົ┬മົ⟶⌮ᗇ䠄AOFM䠅 䛚䜘䜃䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛻䜘䜛 ᢞ㈨ᐙㄝ᫂䠄ᮾி䠅 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ ᭱㧗ᇳ⾜ᙺဨ John Collins す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䠄WATC䠅䜴䜵䝤䝃䜲䝖䠖 www.watc.wa.gov.au す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົ┬䜴䜵䝤䝃䜲䝖䠖 www.treasury.wa.gov.au FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ 䛿䛨䜑䛻 • す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛿䚸250䟜²䛾㠃✚䜢᭷䛧䚸 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㝣䛾すഃ3ศ䛾1䜢༨䜑䜛䚹 • ேཱྀ䛿䚸䛚䜘䛭250ே䛸䛥䜜䚸䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䛾⥲ேཱྀ2,300ே䛾⣙11%䛻┦ᙜ䚹 • • 1829ᖺ䛻ᘓタ䛥䜜䛯ྠᕞ䛾ᕞ㒔䝟䞊䝇䛻䛿⣙ 180ே䛜ఫ䜐䚹 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䠄Western Australian Treasury Corporation䠖WATC䠅䛿䚸 ྠᕞ䛾୰ኸධᶵ㛵䛷䛒䜛䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 2 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 61 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ⤒῭ ୍㈏䛧䛶ຊᙉ䛟Ᏻᐃⓗ 䠄%䠅 ᅜෆ⥲⏕⏘䠄GDP䠅䛸ᕞෆ⥲⏕⏘䠄GSP䠅 ᖺ㛫ᡂ㛗⋡䠄%䠅 ண 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 3 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ⤒῭ ᭱᪂䛾⤒῭ண ᖺ㛫ᡂ㛗⋡ (%) ᐇ⦼್ % ᥎ᐃ ᐇ⦼್ % ண⟬ 䝧䞊䝇 % ᑗ᮶ ண % ᑗ᮶ ண % ᑗ᮶ ண % ᐇ㉁ᕞෆ⥲⏕⏘䠄GSP䠅 ᐇ㉁ᕞ᭱⤊㟂せ ⣧㍺ฟ 㞠⏝ ኻᴗ⋡ ㈤㔠౯᱁ᣦᩘ䠄WPI䠅 䝟䞊䝇ᾘ㈝⪅≀౯ᣦᩘ䠄CPI䠅 ฟ: 2013-14ᕞண⟬᭩䛚䜘䜃䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰⤫ィᒁ䠄Australian Bureau of Statistics䠖ABS䠅 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 4 62 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ⤒῭ ┤㏆䛾䝢䞊䜽䛿㉺䛘䛯䛜䚸タഛᢞ㈨䛿㧗䛔Ỉ‽䛷᥎⛣䛩䜛䛸ண す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾ᐇ㉁タഛᢞ㈨㢠䠄༢䠖ⓒ䝗䝹䠅 ண ฟ: ABS䚸2013-14 ᕞண⟬䚸WATC • す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾ᐇ㉁タഛᢞ㈨㢠䛿䚸2012-13ᖺ䛻8.1%䛾ቑຍ䜢ぢ䛫䛯䛜䚸2013-14ᖺ 䛿9.0%䛾ୗⴠ䛸䛺䜛ぢ㎸䜏䚹 • ⌧ᅾᘓタ୰䛾㈨※䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛿䚸⥲㢠⣙ 1,280൨䝗䝹䛸ヨ⟬䛥䜜䜛䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 5 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ⤒῭ ᘓタ䛛䜙⏕⏘䜈䛾⛣⾜䝣䜵䞊䝈䛿䚸㐣ཤ25ᖺ㛫䛻䜒3ᗘぢ䜙䜜䛶䛚䜚䚸す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷 䝸䜰ᕞ䛾䛺⌧㇟ ᣦᶆ䠖 100 = ┤㏆䛾タഛᢞ㈨䝃䜲䜽䝹䛾䝢䞊䜽 ᪂つタഛᢞ㈨ ㍺ฟ ᪂つタഛᢞ㈨䛻䛿䚸୰ྂ㈨⏘䛾㉎ධ䠄䛘䜀䚸1997-98ᖺ䛻ᐇ䛥䜜䛯䝎䞁䝢䜰䠉䝟䞊䝇㛫䛾䜺䝇䝟䜲䝥䝷䜲 䞁䛾බⓗ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛛䜙Ẹ㛫䝉䜽䝍䞊䜈䛾༷䛺䛹䠅䛿ྵ䜎䜜䛺䛔䚹 ฟ: ABS䚸2013-14 ᕞண⟬᭩ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 6 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 63 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ⤒῭ ⌧ᅾ䛾ᘓタ䛛䜙⏕⏘䜈䛾⛣⾜䝣䜵䞊䝈 ⏕⏘ ᘓタ 50 䠄༢䠖10൨䝗䝹䠅 140 45 㕲㖔▼ྜィ 㕲㖔▼ྜィ Total Iron Ore 㕲㖔▼ྜィ 40 ᾮኳ↛䜺䝇ྜィ Total LNG 35 30 䠄༢䠖10൨䝗䝹䠅 㕲㖔▼ྜィ Total Iron Ore 120 Total LNG ᾮኳ↛䜺䝇ྜィ 100 80 25 60 20 15 40 10 20 5 0 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 ฟ: 2013-14 ᕞண⟬᭩ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 7 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ⤒῭ ேཱྀቑຍ䛻䜘䜚⤒῭ᡂ㛗䛜ຍ㏿䛩䜛୍᪉䛷䚸䜲䞁䝣䝷䛻ᑐ䛩䜛㟂せ䜒Ⓨ⏕ ᖺ㛫ኚ⋡(%) ேཱྀቑຍ ேཱྀቑຍ䛾ෆヂ ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒᡂ㛗䛸䛾ẚ㍑䠉す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ ⮬↛ቑ ᕞ㛫䛾⣧⛣ఫᩘ ண ᖹᆒ ᡂ㛗⋡ =2.3% ᾏእ䛛䜙䛾⣧⛣Ẹᩘ ฟ: ABS ฟ: 2013-14 ᕞண⟬ • 㐣ཤ5ᖺ㛫䛾䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰య䛾ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒேཱྀቑຍ⋡䛜1.7%䛷䛒䜛䛾䛻ᑐ䛧䚸す䜸䞊 䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒேཱྀቑຍ⋡䛿3.0%䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 • ேཱྀቑຍ䛾༙䛿䚸ᾏእ䛛䜙䛾⛣Ẹ䛻䜘䜛䜒䛾䛷䛒䜛䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 8 64 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ᨻ ሀᐇ䛛䛴ಖᏲⓗ䚸㐺ษ䛺㐠Ⴀ 䠄༢䠖10൨䝗䝹䠅 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞᨻᗓ䛾⣧㐠Ⴀᨭ䠄༢䠖100䝗䝹䠅 ண 䛭䛾 ⏝ᩱධ ⛯ධ 䛭䛾䛾㐃㑥㔠 ≀ရ䝃䞊䝡䝇⛯ ண ฟ: 2013-14 ᕞண⟬ ฟ: 2013-14 ᕞண⟬ • 㐣ཤ12ᖺ㛫䛻䜟䛯䜚䚸す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾୍⯡ᨻᗓ㒊㛛㐠Ⴀண⟬䛿䚸㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ䜢グ㘓䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 • ⌧ᅾ䛾䛸䛣䜝2014-15ᖺ䛾㐠Ⴀᨭ䛿㉥Ꮠ䜈㌿ⴠ䛩䜛ぢ㎸䜏䛷䛒䜛䛜䚸㈈ົ⮧䛿䚸㐠Ⴀୖ䛾㈈ᨻ㉥Ꮠ 䛻ᑐ䛧ᣦ䜢ᇳ䜛ពྥ䛿䛺䛔䛣䛸䜢᫂䜙䛛䛻䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 • ㈈ᨻ⾜ືィ⏬䠄Fiscal Action Plan䠅䛾Ⓨ⾲䛻⥆䛝䚸୰㛫ぢ┤䛧䛻䛿ᜍ䜙䛟䚸ᑗ᮶ண 䛾ᨵၿ䜢ᅗ䜛䛣䛸䜢┠ ⓗ䛸䛧䛯ṓฟ䚸㈨⏘༷䚸㈨⏘ᢞ㈨䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛻ᑐᛂ䛩䜛㏣ຍⓗ⟇䛜ྵ䜎䜜䜛ぢ㏻䛧䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 9 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ᨻ ᑗ᮶䛾䛯䜑䛾䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ㈨ す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᨻᗓ㈨⏘ᢞ㈨䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䠄༢䠖ⓒ䝗䝹䠅 2013䠉14ᖺ㈨⏘ᢞ㈨䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 ㏻ᒁ ண Ỉ㐨බ♫ ఫᏯᒁ ಖ┬ ྜィ 㟁ຊ♫ 䛭䛾䛾ᶵ㛵 䝷䞁䝗䝁䞊䝥 ᩍ⫱┬ ಖㆤ䞉▹ṇ┬ 㐨㊰ᒁ ฟ: 2013-14 ᕞண⟬ ฟ: 2013-14 ᕞண⟬ • ᨻᗓ䛿㈨⏘ᢞ㈨䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䠄Asset Investment Program䠅䜢㏻䛧䛶䚸す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾ேཱྀቑຍ䛸⤒῭ ᡂ㛗䛻䛸䜒䛺䛔ᚲせ䛸䛺䜛䜲䞁䝣䝷䜈䛾ᢞ㈨䜢⥅⥆䚹 • ᚋ4ᖺ㛫䛾ண⟬䛻䛚䛡䜛㈨⏘ᢞ㈨䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛿䚸㐣ཤ4ᖺ㛫䛾䛭䜜䛸䜋䜌୪䜆䚸ྜィ269൨䝗䝹䛸䛺䜛 ぢ㎸䜏䚹 • 䛣䜜䜎䛷䛿ಖ䚸ᩍ⫱䚸Ỉ㛵㐃䝥䝻䝆䜵䜽䝖䛻㔜Ⅼ䛜⨨䛛䜜䛶䛔䛯䛜䚸ᑗ᮶䛿බඹ㍺㏦㒊㛛䜈䛸㍈㊊䛜⛣ 䜛ணᐃ䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 10 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 65 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ᨻ ㈈ᨻ⾜ືィ⏬ ୍⯡ᨻᗓ㐠Ⴀຠᯝ ṓධ ṓධෆヂ 㠀ື⏘㈨⏘䛻ᑐ䛩䜛ㆡΏ⛯ᗫṆ䛾ᘏᮇ ᅵᆅ⛯䠄12.5%䛾⛯⋡ᘬ䛝ୖ䛢䠅 ༙Ẹ㛫㌴୧චチ 䝡䝄䜢ᡤ᭷䛩䜛457ྡ䛾⏕ᚐ䛾Ꮫ㈝ ⛯ົ⟶⌮䝟䝑䜿䞊䝆 䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䝺䝧䝹䛷䛾⤒㈝๐ῶ⟇ ⥲ṓධຠᯝ ṓฟ බඹ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾ປാຊᨵ㠉䠄a䠅 䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮ホ౯ 䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䝺䝧䝹䛷䛾⤒㈝๐ῶ⟇ බඹ㍺㏦䝁䝇䝖䛾ᅇ ㄪ㐩䛸ᗈ࿌䛾୍⤖ Ꮚᡤᚓ ⥲ṓฟຠᯝ ⥲㐠Ⴀຠᯝ 6᭶ᮎⅬ䛷䛾⣧㈇മ䛻ᑐ䛩䜛⤒㈝๐ῶຠᯝ 䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ㈨┘ᰝ 䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮ホ౯ 䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䝺䝧䝹䛷䛾⤒㈝๐ῶ⟇ 䛭䛾䛾⥲⣧㈇മຠᯝ ᖺ㛫䛾⥲ຠᯝ (a) 2013Ǧ14ᖺ䛻ᐇ䛥䜜䛯ᕼᮃ㏥⫋ไᗘ䛾䛯䜑䛾䝁䝇䝖䜢ྵ䜐䠄⣙1൨䝗䝹䛸ヨ⟬䠅 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 11 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ⣧㈇മண 䜲䞁䝣䝷ᢞ㈨㟂せ䛾50%ᨭ䛾䛯䜑䛻⣧㈇മ䛿ቑຍ䛧䛴䛴䛒䜛䛜䚸ṓධ䛺䜙䜃䛻䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䞊䝖䛸䛾 ẚ㍑䛷䛿䚸㐺ษ䛺⠊ᅖ䜢᥎⛣ す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾බඹ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾⣧㈇മ⥲㢠䠄༢䠖ⓒ䝗䝹䠅 ⣧㈇മ ⥲㈇മ ண ฟ: 2013-14 ᕞண⟬ • 2012-13ᖺ䛾す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞබඹ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾⣧㈇മ䛿182൨䝗䝹 䠄GSP䛾7.6% 䛻┦ᙜ䠅䛷䛒䜚䚸 2016-17ᖺ䛻䛿䚸284൨䝗䝹䠄ྠ9.8% 䛻┦ ᙜ䠅䜈䛸ቑຍ䛩䜛ぢ㎸䜏䚹䛣䜜䛿䚸2013ᖺ6᭶䛻ヨ⟬䛥䜜䛯す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ 䛾බඹ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛾⣧㈨⏘1,129൨䝗䝹䛸ᑐẚ䛥䜜䜛䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 12 66 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ᨻ S&P䛾せ᱁ᣦᶆ䛿㐠Ⴀᨭ䛻ᑐ䛩䜛⣧㔠⼥㈇മ䜢䛂Ṕྐⓗ䛃䛸ホ౯ S&P 㔠⼥㈇മ䝖䝸䜺䞊 ㈈ᨻぢ㏻䛧ẚ㍑ 2013Ǧ14ᖺண AAAホ౯䠉✺ฟ䛩䜛す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇 䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈 ⣧㈇മ/㐠Ⴀᨭ 䠄㠀㔠⼥㒊㛛䛾බඹ䝉䜽䝍䞊䠅 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗 ༡䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䝡䜽䝖䝸䜰 䝍䝇䝬䝙䜰 䝙䝳䞊䝃䜴䝇 䜴䜵䞊䝹䝈 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䝡䜽䝖䝸 䜰 ༡䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䝍䝇䝬䝙䜰 䜽䜱䞊䞁䝈䝷䞁䝗 ୖグ䛾⾲䛚䜘䜃䜾䝷䝣䛿䚸䝅䝗䝙䞊䛾䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䞉䝁䝰䞁䜴䜵䝹䝇 㖟⾜䠄Commonwealth Bank of Australia䠅䛾䜰䝎䝮䞉䝗䝘䝹䝗䝋䞁Ặ 䠄Adam Donaldson䠅䛾チྍ䜢ཷ䛡䛶ᥖ㍕䛩䜛䜒䛾䛷䛒䜛䚹 Ⓨ⾲ᙜึ䚸ぢ㏻䛧䛿䛂䝛䜺䝔䜱䝤䛃䛸䛥䜜䛶䛔䛯ᕞ䛻䛿䚸䛂 * 䛃䛜䛔 䛶䛔䜛䚹 S&P䛿2013ᖺ9᭶18᪥䚸 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾᱁䛡䜢 䛂AA+ 䛃䛻ᘬ䛝ୗ䛢䚸ぢ㏻䛧䛿䛂Ᏻᐃⓗ䛃䛸䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 13 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ᨻ ᪂ᪧ㈈ົ┠ᶆ ㈈ົ┠ᶆ䛸㐩ᡂ≧ἣ _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2012 – 13 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ண⟬ ண ⤖ᯝ ᐇ㉁⣧㈨⏘Ỉ‽䛾⥔ᣢ䜎䛯䛿ቑຍ Yes Yes No ୍⯡ᨻᗓ㒊㛛䛾㈈ᨻ㯮Ꮠ Yes Yes Yes 2012-13ᖺண⟬䛾㈈ົ┠ᶆ ᐇ⦼ ⥲㠀㈈ົබඹ㒊㛛䠄TNPS䠅䛾ධ䛻ᑐ䛩䜛⣧Ꮚ䝁䝇䝖䛾ྜ䛿4.5%䜎䛯䛿䛭䜜௨ୗ䛻ᢚไ Yes Yes Yes ⾜ᨻ䝃䞊䝡䝇䛾ᥦ౪䛻ᚲせ䛺୍ேᙜ䛯䜚䛾୍⯡ᨻᗓᨭฟ䛾ቑຍ䛾ᅇ㑊 Yes Yes Yes ⛯ไ㠃䛷䛾➇தඃᛶ Yes Yes Yes ᪂㈈ົ┠ᶆ䛸㐩ᡂ≧ἣ ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2012 – 13 __________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2013-14 ᖺண⟬䛾㈈ົ┠ᶆ ண ⤖ᯝ ᐇ⦼ ṓฟ䛾ఙ䜃䛜ṓධ䛾ఙ䜃䜢㉸䛘䛺䛔䛣䛸䜢ᚭᗏ No No 䜲䞁䝣䝷ᨭฟ䛾ᑡ䛺䛟䛸䜒50%䜢㈇ᢸ䛩䜛୍⯡ᨻᗓ㒊㛛䛾㐠Ⴀάື䛛䜙ᚓ䜙䜜䜛వ㈨⏘Ỉ‽䛾⥔ᣢ No No TNPS䛾⣧㈇മ䜢ṓධ䛾55%䜎䛯䛿䛭䜜௨ୗ䛾Ỉ‽䛻⥔ᣢ Yes Yes TNPS㐠Ⴀవ㈨⏘䜢┈䛾ᑡ䛺䛟䛸䜒5%䛻ಖ䛴 Yes Yes ᕞ䛾⛯ไ㠃䛷䛾➇தඃᛶ䜢⥔ᣢ Yes Yes FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 14 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 67 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ᨻ ᪂䛯䛺㈈ᨻ┠ᶆ䠉䜘䜚ᣮᡓⓗ䛺4䛴䛾᪂┠ᶆ 2013-14ᖺண⟬䛻䛚䛡䜛㈈ᨻ┠ᶆ䛸㐩ᡂ≧ἣ ⾲7 ṓฟ䛾ఙ䜃䛜ṓධ䛾ఙ䜃䜢㉸䛘䛺䛔䛣䛸䜢ᚭᗏ 䠉⌧Ⅼ䛷䛾᥎ᐃ್䠄ṓධ䛾ఙ䜃䛿䚸ṓฟ䛾ఙ䜃䜢ୗᅇ䜛䠅 䠉㐩ᡂ≧ἣ 䜲䞁䝣䝷ᨭฟ䛾ᑡ䛺䛟䛸䜒50%䜢㈇ᢸ䛩䜛୍⯡ᨻᗓ㒊㛛䛾㐠Ⴀάື䛛䜙ᚓ䜙䜜䜛 వ㈨⏘Ỉ‽䛾⥔ᣢ 䠉⌧Ⅼ䛷䛾᥎ᐃ್ 䠉㐩ᡂ≧ἣ TNPS䛾⣧㈇മ䜢ṓධ䛾55%䜎䛯䛿䛭䜜௨ୗ䛾Ỉ‽䛻⥔ᣢ 䠉⌧Ⅼ䛷䛾᥎ᐃ್ 䠉㐩ᡂ≧ἣ TNPS㐠Ⴀవ㈨⏘䜢┈䛾ᑡ䛺䛟䛸䜒5%䛻ಖ䛴 䠉⌧Ⅼ䛷䛾᥎ᐃ್ 䠉㐩ᡂ≧ἣ ᕞ䛾⛯ไ㠃䛷䛾➇தඃᛶ䜢⥔ᣢ 䠉㐩ᡂ≧ἣ ฟ: 2013-14ᕞண⟬ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 15 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䠄㼃㻭㼀㻯䠅 ᴫせ す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䠄㼃㼑㼟㼠㼑㼞㼚㻌㻭㼡㼟㼠㼞㼍㼘㼕㼍㼚㻌㼀㼞㼑㼍㼟㼡㼞㼥㻌㻯㼛㼞㼜㼛㼞㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚䠖㼃㻭㼀㻯䠅䛿䚸㻝㻥㻤㻢ᖺ䛾す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸 䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ἲ䠄 㼃㼑㼟㼠㼑㼞㼚㻌㻭㼡㼟㼠㼞㼍㼘㼕㼍㼚㻌㼀㼞㼑㼍㼟㼡㼞㼥㻌㻯㼛㼞㼜㼛㼞㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㻭㼏㼠㻌㻝㻥㻤㻢㻌䠅䛻ᇶ䛵䛝タ❧䛥䜜䛯䚸す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸 䜰ᕞ䛾୰ኸධᶵ㛵䛷䛒䜛䚹 㼃㻭㼀㻯䛿䚸 㻝㻢㻜䜢㉸䛘䜛す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞෆ䛾‽ᨻᗓᶵ㛵䛚䜘䜃ᆅ᪉⮬య䛻㈚䜢⾜䛖䛯䜑䚸ᅜෆእ䛾 ᕷሙ䛻䛚䛔䛶㈨㔠䛾ධ䜢⾜䛔䚸䜎䛯す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛾බඹ䝉䜽䝍䞊䛻ຓゝ䛺䜙䜃䛻ᢞ㈨䜔እᅜⅭ᭰䛻 㛵䛩䜛䝃䞊䝡䝇䜢ᥦ౪䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹㻞㻜㻝㻟ᖺ㻝㻜᭶ᮎ䛾㼃㻭㼀㻯㻌䛾⥲㈇മ㢠䛿䚸㻟㻠㻠൨䝗䝹䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 㼃㻭㼀㻯䛻䜘䜛ධ㔠䛿䚸㻝㻥㻤㻢ᖺ䛾す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ἲ䛾➨㻝㻟᮲➨㻔㻝㻕㡯䛻ᇶ䛵䛝䚸す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸 䜰ᕞ䜢௦⾲䛩䜛㈈ົ⮧䛜ಖド䛩䜛䚹 ᱁䛡ᶵ㛵 䝇䝍䞁䝎䞊䝗䠃䝥䜰䞊䝈 䝮䞊䝕䜱䞊䝈䞉䜲䞁䝧䝇䝍䞊䝈䞉䝃䞊䝡䝇 ಙ⏝᱁䛡 㛗ᮇ 㻭㻭㻗㻌䠄Ᏻᐃⓗ䠅 㻭㼍㼍 䠄ぢ㏻䛧䛿䝛䜺䝔䜱䝤䠅 ▷ᮇ 㻭㻙㻝㻗 㻼㼞㼕㼙㼑㻙㻝 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 16 68 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫ 䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䞊䝖䛻㛵䛩䜛᪂䜺䜲䝗䝷䜲䞁 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䠄㼃㻭㼀㻯䠅⌮䛿㻞㻜㻝㻟ᖺ㻢᭶䚸䝞䝷䞁䝇䝅䞊䝖䛻㛵䛩䜛௨ୗ䛾ෆᐜ䜢ྵ䜐᪂䜺䜲 䝗䝷䜲䞁䜢⟇ᐃ䛧䛯䚹 㻝㻚 ᣢ⥆ྍ⬟ᛶ䛾ほⅬ䜘䜚䚸 㻝㻞䞄᭶௨ෆ䛻‶ᮇ䜢㏄䛘䜛മๆ䜢ᚋ㻞ᖺ㛫䛻䜟䛯䜚㻞㻜㻑ᮍ‶䜈䛸๐ῶ䛩䜛䚹 ྠ┠ᶆ䛾㐩ᡂᮇ㝈䛿᭱㏆䚸㻞㻜㻝㻠ᖺ㻢᭶㻟㻜᪥䜈䛸๓ಽ䛧䛥䜜䚸䜎䛯㻞㻜㻝㻠ᖺ㻝㻞᭶㻟㻝᪥䜎䛷䛻㻝㻡㻑ᮍ‶䛸䛩䜛 䜘䛖ᙉ䛥䜜䛯䚹 㻞㻚 ຍ㔜ᖹᆒᅇ䜚䜢㧗䜑䜛䚹 㻟㻚㻌㻌㻌㻌ὶືᛶ䜹䝞䝺䝑䝆ẚ⋡䜢㐍ⓗ䛻ᙉ䛩䜛䚹 㼃㻭㼀㻯䛿䚸㈨㔠ㄪ㐩䝸䝇䜽䛸⋡䛾᭱ᑠ䛸䛔䛖ᑐ❧䛩䜛ඃඛ㡯㛫䛾䝞䝷䞁䝇䜢ᅗ䜛䛯䜑䚸ᘬ䛝⥆䛝䚸ྠᴗ ♫䛸䛾ẚ㍑䜢⾜䛖䛸䛸䜒䛻䚸ᢞ㈨ᐙ䚸䝟䝛䝹㖟⾜䚸 ᱁䛡ᶵ㛵䚸㢳ᐈ䛸䛾ᑐヰ䜢⥅⥆䛩䜛䚹 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 17 㻞㻜㻝㻟㻛㻝㻠ᖺ㼃㻭㼀㻯ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 㻞㻜㻝㻟㻛㻝㻠ᖺ㼃㻭㼀㻯㻌ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 㻞㻜㻝㻟ᖺ㻝㻜᭶㻟㻝᪥䛡ヨ⟬ 䠄༢䠖10൨䝗䝹䠅 䠄༢䠖10൨䝗䝹䠅 㢳ᐈ䜈䛾᪂つ⼥㈨ 3.6 ‶ᮇ䜢㏄䛘䜛മๆ 9.9 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ䠄๓㈨㔠ㄪ㐩䜢ᢚ䛘䛯㖭䠅 2.2 ኚືമๆ 0.1 ▷ᮇ䠄ᅜෆ䛚䜘䜃ᾏእCP䠅 7.6 ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩㟂せ⥲㢠 ㈨㔠ㄪ㐩※ 13.5 ⠊ᅖ 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ 5.0㹼7.0 ኚືമๆ 3.0㹼5.0 ▷ᮇ䠄ᅜෆ䛚䜘䜃ᾏእCP䠅 4.0㹼6.0 13.5 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 18 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 69 WATC ධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 㛗ᮇධ䠉ᅜෆ䝷䜲䞁䝘䝑䝥 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മ䝷䜲䞁䝘䝑䝥 䠉 2013ᖺ10᭶31᪥ ᅛᐃ㔠䝬䞊䜿䝑䝖䝯䜲䜻䞁䜾䞉䝟䝛䝹 ⋡ 5.50% 7.00% 3.00% 8.00 % 7.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00% ‶ᮇ 23/04/14 15/04/15 8/06/16 15/07/17 15/10/19 15/07/21 16/10/23 23/07/25 Ⓨ⾜㢠 31൨䝗䝹 34൨䝗䝹 29൨䝗䝹 51൨䝗䝹 38൨䝗䝹 30൨䝗䝹 13൨䝗䝹 6൨䝗䝹 ANZ䜲䞁䝧䝇䝖䝯䞁䝖䞉䝞䞁䜽 䝞䞁䜽䜸䝤䜰䝯䝸䜹䞉䝯䝸䝹䝸䞁䝏 䝞䞊䜽䝺䜲䝈㖟⾜䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᨭᗑ 䝅䝔䜱䜾䝹䞊䝥䞉䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䞉䝬䞊䜿䝑䝒䞉䜸䞊 䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䞉䝁䝰䞁䜴䜵䝹䝇㖟⾜ 䝗䜲䝏䜵䞉䜻䝱䝢䝍䝹䝬䞊䜿䝑䝒䞉䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 J.P.䝰䝹䜺䞁䞉䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰 䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㖟⾜ 䝧䞁䝏䝬䞊䜽മⓎ⾜㢠ྜィ 233൨䝗䝹 ኚືമๆ 2013ᖺ10᭶ᮎ䛾WATC䛾ኚືമๆⓎ⾜㢠ྜィ䛿䚸30൨䝗 䝹䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 䝜䝮䝷䞉䜲䞁䝍䞊䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹 䜹䝘䝎䝻䜲䝲䝹㖟⾜ TD䝉䜻䝳䝸䝔䜱䞊䝈 UBS䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᨭᗑ 䜴䜶䝇䝖䝟䝑䜽㖟⾜ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 19 WATCධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 ▷ᮇമๆ ᅜෆ▷ᮇമๆⓎ⾜ ▷ ᮇ グ ྡ බ മ 䠄 Short-Term Inscribed Stock 䠖 STIS 䠅䛾Ⓨ⾜䛿䚸䛻ᅜෆ㖟⾜䛸䛸䜒䛻䝍䝑䝥䝧䞊 䝇䛷ᐇ䛥䜜䜛䚹 ECP䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䞉䝕䜱䞊䝷䞊䝟䝛䝹 • 䝞䞁䜽䞉䜸䝤䞉䜰䝯䝸䜹䞉䝉䜻䝳䝸䝔䜱䞊䝈 • 䝞䞊䜽䝺䜲䝈㖟⾜ Ⓨ⾜῭䜏▷ᮇグྡබമ䛿䚸 2013ᖺ10᭶ᮎⅬ䛷 55൨䝗䝹䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 • 䝅䝔䜱䝞䞁䜽䞉䜲䞁䝍䞊䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹 䝴䞊䝻CP䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 WATC䛿䚸䝗䝹䚸㤶 䝗䝹䚸NZ䝗䝹䚸⡿䝗䝹䚸᪥ ᮏ䚸ⱥ䝫䞁䝗䚸䝇䜲䝇䝣䝷䞁䚸䝴䞊䝻ᘓ䛶䛷മๆ䛜 Ⓨ⾜䛥䜜䜛60൨⡿䝗䝹つᶍ䛾ከ㏻㈌ᘓ䛶䝴䞊䝻 CP䠄ECP䠅䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 䜢᭷䛧䛶䛔䜛䚹 • 䜽䝺䝕䜱䞉䝇䜲䝇䞉䝉䜻䝳䝸䝔䜱䞊䝈 Ⓨ⾜῭䜏䝴䞊䝻CP㢠䛿䚸2013ᖺ10᭶ᮎⅬ䛷23 ൨䝗䝹┦ᙜ䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 • UBS • 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䞉䝁䝰䞁䜴䜵䝹䝇㖟⾜㤶 ᨭᗑ 䠄䝶䞊䝻䝑䝟䠅 • 䝗䜲䝒㖟⾜䝻䞁䝗䞁 • 䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㖟⾜㤶 ᨭᗑ • 䜴䜶䝇䝖䝟䝑䜽㖟⾜䝅䞁䜺䝫䞊䝹ᨭᗑ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 20 70 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 WATCධ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 䝴䞊䝻MTN / 䛭䛾 䝴䞊䝻MTN䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮 WATC䛿䚸1990ᖺ䜘䜚㛤ጞ䛥䜜䛯20൨⡿䝗䝹つᶍ䛾ከ ㏻㈌ᘓ䛶䝴䞊䝻MTN䠄EMTN䠅䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䜢᭷䛩䜛䚹 䝴䞊䝻MTN䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛻䜘䜚ㄆ䜑䜙䜜䜛ൾ㑏ᮇ㝈䛿䚸1 䞄᭶䛛䜙30ᖺ䜎䛷ᖜ䛜䛒䜛䚹 䝴䞊䝻MTN 䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䞉䝕䜱䞊䝷䞊䞉䝟䝛䝹 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䞉䜰䞁䝗䞉䝙䝳䞊䝆䞊䝷䞁䝗䞉䝞䞁䜻䞁䜾䞉 䜾䝹䞊䝥 䝅䝔䜱䜾䝹䞊䝥䞉䜾䝻䞊䝞䝹䞉䝬䞊䜿䝑䝒 䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰䞉䝁䝰䞁䜴䜵䝹䝇㖟⾜ 䜽䝺䝕䜱䞉䝇䜲䝇䞉䝉䜻䝳䝸䝔䜱䞊䝈䠄䝶䞊䝻䝑䝟䠅 ྠ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛿䚸WATC䛜䝕䜱䞊䝷䞊䠄ᘬཷドๆ♫䠅 ௨እ䛾ᶵ㛵䛻ᑐ䛧䛶മๆ䜢Ⓨ⾜䛩䜛䛣䛸䜢ㄆ䜑䜛䛂㏫↷ 䛃ᶵ⬟䛜⤌䜏㎸䜎䜜䛶䛔䜛䚹 ྠ䝥䝻䜾䝷䝮䛾ୗ䛷Ⓨ⾜῭䜏䛾䝴䞊䝻MTN䛾㢠㠃䛿䚸 2013ᖺ10᭶ᮎⅬ䛷䝊䝻䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 ドๆ䜻䝱䝢䝍䝹䞉䝬䞊䜿䝑䝒䝶䞊䝻䝑䝟 䝗䜲䝒㖟⾜䝻䞁䝗䞁ᨭᗑ 䝯䝸䝹䝸䞁䝏䞉䜲䞁䝍䞊䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹 䜏䛪䜋䜲䞁䝍䞊䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹 䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰㖟⾜ 䝜䝮䝷䞉䜲䞁䝍䞊䝘䝅䝵䝘䝹 䜹䝘䝎䝻䜲䝲䝹㖟⾜䝶䞊䝻䝑䝟 䛭䛾䠉ಶேྥ䛡മๆ Ⓨ⾜῭䜏䛾ಶேྥ䛡മๆ䛾㢠㠃䛿䚸2013ᖺ10᭶ᮎ Ⅼ䛷䚸⣙2൨䝗䝹䛸䛺䛳䛶䛔䜛䚹 SMBC᪥⯆䜻䝱䝢䝍䝹䞉䝬䞊䜿䝑䝖 UBS 䜴䜶䝇䝖䝟䝑䜽㖟⾜ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 21 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ䛻㛵㐃䛩䜛ሗ䜈䛾㔜せ䛺䝸䞁䜽 • www.watc.wa.gov.au – す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䠄WATC䠅䜴䜵䝤䝃䜲䝖 • http://www.treasury.wa.gov.au/cms/index.aspx – す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົ┬䜴䜵 䝤䝃䜲䝖 FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 22 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 71 ⤖ㄽ WATCമᶒ䛿௨ୗ䛾ㄽⅬ䛻䛡䜙䜜䜛 • 㧗Ỉ‽䛾ಙ⏝᱁䛡䠉 S&P䛿AA+䠄Ᏻᐃⓗ䠅䚸䝮䞊䝕䜱䞊䝈䛿Aaa (䝛䜺䝔䜱䝤䠅 䛸ホ౯ • ຊᙉ䛔⤒῭䠉 ከᵝ䛛䛴㇏䛛䛺㈨※䛸⤒῭ⓗ䛻ᙉ䛔㢳ᐈᇶ┙䛻䜘䜛ᡴ䛱 • 䛺ᕞᨻᗓ䛾㈈ᨻ㐠Ⴀ䠉㈈ᨻ⾜ືィ⏬䛸ಟṇ䛥䜜䛯㈈ᨻ┠ᶆ • WATC䛾✚ᴟⓗ䛺ᕷሙ䝥䝺䝊䞁䝇䠉ᅜෆእ䛾㔠⼥ᕷሙ • ඃ䜜䛯ὶືᛶ䠉つᶍ䛺Ⓨ⾜㢠䚸Basel III䛻ᇶ䛵䛝䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᛶつไ ᗇ䠄Australian Prudential Regulation Authority䠖APRA䠅䛻䜘䜚䝺䝧䝹1㈨⏘䛸䛧 䛶ㄆᐃ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 23 す䜸䞊䝇䝖䝷䝸䜰ᕞ㈈ົබ♫䠄WATC䠅 䛒䜚䛜䛸䛖䛤䛦䛔䜎䛧䛯 ච㈐㡯㸸 ᮏ㈨ᩱᥖ㍕ࡉࢀࡓ࠸࡞ࡿពぢࠊุ᩿ࠊ⤖ㄽࠊぢ㏻ࡋࠊண ࠊヨ⟬ࡶࠊす࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫ ᥦ౪ࡉࢀࠊᙜ♫ࡀ☜࡛࠶ࡿุ᩿ࡋࡓሗࡢಙ㢗ᛶᇶ࡙ࡁసᡂࡉࢀࡓࡶࡢ࡛ࡍࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽす࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛ ࣜᕞ㈈ົබ♫ࡀࠊࡑࢀࡽࡢሗࡢṇ☜ᛶࢆಖドࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛ࡣ࠶ࡾࡲࡏࢇࠋᮏ㈨ᩱࡣၿពࡢࡶసᡂࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾ ࡲࡍࡀࠊ࠶ࡃࡲ࡛ࡶᢞ㈨ᐙࡢⓙᵝࡢཧ⪃ሗࡢᥦ౪ࡢࡳࢆ┠ⓗࡋࡓࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿࡈ⌮ゎࡃࡔࡉ࠸ࠋᮏ㈨ᩱࡢ ሗࡣࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡢⓙᵝࡢලయⓗࢽ࣮ࢬࡸಶูࡢ≧ἣ㛵㐃ࡋ࡚ᥦ౪ࡉࢀࡿ≉ᐃࡢ㡯㛵ࡍࡿᑓ㛛ⓗ࡞ຓゝࡢ௦᭰ࢆ ពᅗࡍࡿࡶࡢ࡛ࡣ࠶ࡾࡲࡏࢇࠋ FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL WESTERN AUSTRALIANS 24 72 2013ᖺ12᭶11᪥ᅾ᪥࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜ㤋 ࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛࣜᨻᗓമๆࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࣛ 73
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