Dengue deaths and age–sex specific laboratory confirmed

Dengue deaths and age–sex specific laboratory confirmed
infections for the years 2006–2014 in Pakistan:
A systematic analysis for the dengue burden
Prof. Saleem M. Rana
PhD, FRSE
Contech International School of Public Health
Lahore, Pakistan
•
Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific mortality due to
dengue infections is essential for the formation of health policies.
•
We estimated mortality and prevalence due to Dengue age-sex-specific for all
areas of Pakistan between 2006 and 2014 applied to an updated database. We
found the rapid increase in annual incidence and spread geographically.
•
To see the situation, we took into account trends for key covariates that
explained changes in age-specific rates, recent global and national changes
and reviewed the data to develop a precise estimates of dengue causes of
deaths and rapid spread for Pakistan and prediction of future 2015 deaths and
infections.
Courtesy: Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Number of Deaths in Pakistan
300
285
250
222
219
200
150
131
100
50
41
40
18
17
13
2007
2008
2009
14
0
2006
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Courtesy: Electronic Complaint Routing System|ecrs.punjab.gov.pk/phl_cms
Sex wise Laboratory Confirmed Cases in Pakistan
Year wise geographical spread of Dengue in Punjab
All age moderate Dengue Infections
Post-dengue chronic fatigue cases
Severe dengue cases
Global WORK PACKAGES
Dengue
surveillance
WP1
Integrated surveillance
and
early warning systems
WP2
Novel diagnostic assays
for resource limited
settings
WP3
Novel tools for vector
Surveillance
WP9
Research conduct data
management and modelling
Prevention of dengue
in children
Risk of dengue introduction to
uninfected areas
WP4
Novel strategies to prevent
Dengue in school children Impregnated school uniforms:
a randomized control trial
WP5
Repellent efficacy of
impregnated uniforms
Cross-cutting
WP10
Geo-spatial modelling
and risk maps
WP12
Management and Dissemination
WP6
Sentinel surveillance
of imported dengue :
trends and virus evolution
WP7
Surveillance and control of
Aedes
WP8
Climate change, global mobility
and population dynamics:
predictive models
WP11
Economic evaluation and evidenceinformed policy making
Way Forward
• Innovative tools are required to respond and
achieve better:
– predictive models
– prevention,
– surveillance,
– diagnosis,
– monitoring
*in the context of globalization and climate change