APRIL 2015
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
PRODUCTION DECLINE SIGNALS SLOWDOWN
Cement sales in Mar-2015 increased 8.6% YoY to 5.88mn tons.
We believe this growth is due to a low base from changes in the
labour market in Nov-2013. Key negatives include 1) Clinker
production down 6.6% YoY. This is the largest pace of decline
since Jan-2010. We believe this is a sign of a negative demand
outlook in the sector. It also reflects expectations of on-going
inventory build-up, triggered by new expansions. 2) Sales growth
momentum at its slowest pace since Nov-2014. We expect the
momentum to continue slowing, with overall growth for FY2015
standing at around 5% YoY. Positives include 1) sales increasing
7.1% vs. Mar-2013 pre-labour market change levels. 2) Clinker
inventory stabilized at 20.5mn tons. The sector currently trades at
a 2015E P/E of 13.1, in-line with historical averages of 13.0x.
 Sales: Cement sales increased 8.6% YoY and 11.8% MoM, to 5.88mn tons



in March 2015. Sales are up 7.1% vs. Mar-2013 levels.
Production: Clinker production declined 6.6% YoY but increased 13.5%
MoM in March 2015 to 4.9mn tons. Cement production increased 8.9% YoY
and 11.8% MoM in March 2015 to 5.8mn tons.
Inventory: Clinker inventory level decreased 1.7% MoM to 20.5mn tons in
March 2015. Inventory is 1.3x March 2014 levels.
Cement market share: The biggest market share gainer was Southern
Cement with an increase of 0.34% MoM to 14.4%, while the biggest decliner
was Arabian Cement with a decrease of 0.41% MoM to 9.0%.
Exhibit 1: Cement & clinker production and clinker inventory data
‘000 tons
7,000
25,000
6,000
20,000
5,000
4,000
15,000
3,000
10,000
2,000
5,000
1,000
0
0
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Clinker production
Mar-14
Cement Production
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Clinker inventory (RHS)
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research.
Exhibit 2: Saudi Cement companies – Valuation matrix
Southern Cement (SPCC)
Yamama Cement (YSCC)
Saudi Cement (SCC)
Qassim Cement (QCC)
Yanbu Cement (YCC)
Eastern Cement (EPCC)
Rating
N
OW
OW
N
OW
N
MCap
$mn
3,508
2,434
3,571
2,181
2,824
1,121
Stock perf
(%)
Mar YTD
(4.9) (14.2)
(6.1) (6.1)
(5.6) (8.7)
(6.4)
1.8
1.8
9.0
(1.1) (11.8)
Source: Bloomberg, NCBC Research.
All prices as of 08 April, 2015, * On a TTM basis; N: Neutral, NC: Not Covered
Please refer to the last page for important disclaimer
P/E
EV/ P/BV EV/ton
(x) EBITDA
(x)
($)
’15
‘15
‘15
‘15
13.5
11.8
4.2
384
13.0
8.8
2.4
323
12.1
10.3
3.9
422
14.6
11.2
4.1
472
13.3
10.3
2.9
452
13.4
8.5
1.8
291
DY
(%)
‘15
5.3
6.7
6.9
6.6
6.0
7.2
ROE
(%)
’15
32.2
18.6
33.5
28.2
22.0
13.8
Mohamed Tomalieh
[email protected]
+966 12 690 7635
www.ncbc.com
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Industry snapshot
Saudi Arabia has 15 cement companies with an estimated annual cement
production capacity of 61.2mn tons.
In March-15, cement and clinker sales in Saudi totalled 5.9mn tons versus
5.5mn tons in March-14 and 5.3mn tons in February-15. The sector sold 86,000
tons of clinker domestically in the month of March-15 all of which was sold by
Northern Cement
Total exports for the month of March-15 increased 7.8% MoM to reach 69,000
tons, up from 64,000 tons in February-15. Three companies exported cement
during the month – Saudi Cement, Eastern Cement and Riyadh Cement. No
company reported clinker exports in March-15.
Exhibit 3: March 2015 at a glance
NRCC (3.1)
Sales: 210; 8.8%
Exports: 0; NA
JCC (1.7)
Sales: 172; 24.6%
Exports 0; NA
TCC (1.6)
Sales: 137; 9.6%
Exports 0; NA
QCC (4.1)
Sales: 411; 11.7%
Exports: 0; NA
YSCC (6.3)
Sales: 519; 9.5%
Exports: 0; NA
EPCC (3.5)
Sales: 309; 12.4%
Exports: 9; (10.0)%
HCC (1.7)
Sales: 153; 18.6%
Exports: 0; NA
SCC (8.8)
Sales: 755; 8.5%
Exports: 52; 10.6%
YCC (6.3)
Sales: 660; 8.4%
Exports: 0; NA
RCC (3.8)
Sales: 311; 18.3%
Exports: 8; 14.3%
ASCC (1.5)
Sales: 193; 22.2%
Exports: 0; NA
CCC (1.9)
Sales: 239; 12.7%
Exports: 0; NA
ACC (5.4)
Sales: 521; 7.0%
Exports: 0; NA
Legend
SPCC (7.7)
Sales: 837; 14.5%
Exports 0; NA
NJCC (3.8)
Sales: 448; 12.6%
Exports: 0; NA
Company (Cement capacity in mn tons)
Month’s sales in ‘000 tons; Growth MoM
Month’s exports in ‘000 tons; Growth MoM
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research. NB: Data refers to domestic cement sales and cement exports only
CCC – City Cement, NJCC – Najran Cement, RCC – Riyadh Cement, NRCC – Northern Region Cement, ASCC – Al Safwa Cement, HCC – Hail Cement
2
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Domestic sales
In March-15, domestic sales of cement increased 8.3% YoY and 11.8% MoM to
5.8mn tons. This compares to 5.2mn tons in February-15. On a YoY basis,
Najran Cement reported the highest increase in cement sales by 63.5%, while
Tabuk Cement reported the highest YoY decrease in cement sales at 6.2%. On
a MoM basis, Jouf Cement reported the highest increase in cement sales by
24.6%, no company reported a decline in cement sales on a MoM basis.
The two private companies – Safwa and Riyadh Cement reported a decrease of
1.0% YoY but an increase of 19.8% MoM in domestic cement sales. Riyadh
Cement sales were up 1.0% YoY and 18.4% MoM, while Safwa Cement
reported a decrease of 4.0% YoY and an increase of 22.2% MoM.
Exhibit 4: Domestic cement sales – MoM
Exhibit 5: Domestic cement sales– YoY
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
900
20%
900
15%
18%
16%
14%
600
12%
10%
600
5%
10%
8%
300
6%
0%
300
4%
-5%
2%
0
0%
Yamama Saudi
Eastern Qassim Yanbu Arabian Southern Tabuk
Feb-15
Mar-15
Najran
0
-10%
Yamama Saudi Eastern Qassim Yanbu Arabian Southern Tabuk
MoM growth (RHS)
Mar-14
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Mar-15
Najran
YoY growth (RHS)
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
(Please refer to the Appendix on Page 9 for company-specific charts.)
Exports
The Kingdom’s cement exports increased 38.0% YoY, up from 50,000 tons in
March-14 to 69,000 tons in March-15. Only three companies exported cement in
March -15 (Saudi Cement, Eastern Cement and Riyadh Cement).
Exhibit 6: Saudi Arabia’s total cement exports
Exhibit 7: Exports by SCC, EPCC and RCC
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
60
200
50
150
40
30
100
20
50
10
Saudi Cement
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Eastern Cement
Mar-15
Dec-14
Sep-14
Jun-14
Mar-15
Mar-14
Nov-14
Dec-13
Jul-14
Sep-13
Mar-14
Jun-13
Nov-13
Mar-13
Jul-13
Dec-12
Mar-13
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jun-12
0
Jul-12
Mar-12
0
Mar-12
Riyad Cement
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
3
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Production
Saudi Arabia’s cement production increased 8.9% YoY and 11.8% MoM to
5.8mn tons in March-15. All companies except for Tabuk, Arabian and Yamama
Cement reported a YoY increase in cement production during the month.
Najran Cement reported the highest YoY increase in cement production at
56.3% followed by AlJouf Cement (51.4%), City Cement (20.0%), Southern
Cement (14.8%), Yanbu Cement (13.2%), Northern Cement (13.0%), Eastern
Cement (11.6%), Hail Cement (10.9%), Qassim Cement (7.0%), Riyadh Cement
(4.5%), Safwa Cement (0.5%) and Saudi Cement (0.3%). Production declined
for Tabuk Cement (23.3%), Yamama Cement (5.2%) and Arabian Cement
(1.3%). On a MoM basis, no company reported a decline in cement production.
Clinker production was down 6.6% YoY but increased 13.5% MoM in March-15
to reach 4.9mn tons. On a MoM basis, Tabuk Cement reported the highest
increase in production at 186.0%, while Yanbu Cement recorded the largest
decline at 24.9%. On a YoY basis, Northern Cement reported the highest YoY
increase in clinker production which grew by 63.8%. The largest decliner on a
YoY basis was Yanbu Cement at 41.6%.
Exhibit 8: Cement production
Exhibit 9: Clinker production
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
6,000
6,000
5,000
5,000
4,000
4,000
3,000
3,000
2,000
2,000
1,000
1,000
0
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Jun
2014
Jul
Aug
2015
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
2013
Jun
2014
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
4
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Inventory level
In March-15, clinker inventory at the sector level increased by 25.1% YoY but
declined 1.7% MoM to 20.5mn tons. Cement inventory decreased YoY by 6.1%
and MoM by 6.0% to 0.87mn tons during the month.
Exhibit 10: Cement inventory
Exhibit 11: Clinker inventory
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
4,000
200
3,500
160
3,000
2,500
120
2,000
80
1,500
40
1,000
500
0
Yamama Saudi
Eastern Qassim Yanbu Arabian Southern Tabuk
Mar-14
Feb-15
Riyadh
0
Yamama Saudi
Eastern Qassim Yanbu Arabian Southern Tabuk
Mar-15
Mar-14
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Feb-15
Riyadh
Mar-15
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
The sector’s clinker inventory as a percentage of total monthly sales stood at
349% in March-15 compared to 397% in February-15 and 303% in March-14.
Among the listed companies, Najran, Northern and Yamama Cement had the
highest inventory percentages at 606%, 603% and 543% of sales, respectively.
On the other hand, Arabian and City Cement held the lowest clinker inventory
percentages at 71% and 165% of sales, respectively.
Exhibit 12: Clinker inventory
Exhibit 13: Clinker inventory
‘000 tons
as % of sales
600%
24,000
600%
20,000
16,000
400%
400%
12,000
8,000
200%
200%
4,000
Mar-15
Dec-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Mar-14
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
0%
Mar-12
0
0%
Yamama Saudi
Eastern Qassim Yanbu Arabian Southern Tabuk
Mar-14
Clinker inventory
Riyadh
Mar-15
Clinker inventory % of sales (RHS)
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research, * July and August 2014 YoY growth smoothed
to adjust for Ramadan seasonality
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
5
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Market share
In March-15, Eight companies increased their domestic cement market shares
on a MoM basis. Among the listed companies, Southern Cement, Jouf Cement,
Hail Cement, Eastern Cement, Najran Cement and City Cement reported 0.34%,
0.30%, 0.15%, 0.06%, 0.05% and 0.03% MoM increase in market share,
respectively.
Gainers (MoM): Southern Cement (0.34%), Jouf Cement (0.30%), Riyadh
Cement (0.29%), Safwa Cement (0.28%), Hail Cement (0.15%), Eastern
Cement (0.06%), Najran Cement (0.05%) and City Cement (0.03%)
Feb-15
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Mar-15
Mar-14
Riyadh
Tabuk
Southern
Arabian
Yamama
0%
Najran
0%
Riyadh
4%
Tabuk
4%
Southern
8%
Arabian
8%
Yanbu
12%
Qassim
16%
12%
Eastern
16%
Saudi
20%
Yamama
20%
Yanbu
YoY
Qassim
MoM
Eastern
Exhibit 15: Domestic market share – cement sales
Saudi
Exhibit 14: Domestic market share – cement sales
Najran
Decliners (MoM): Arabian Cement (0.41%), Saudi Cement (0.39%), Yanbu
Cement (0.36%), Yamama Cement (0.19%), Northern Cement (0.10%), Tabuk
Cement (0.05%) and Qassim Cement (0.01%)
Mar-15
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
6
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Valuation
As of 08 April 2015, the cement sector index was down 4.3% YTD, in
comparison to the TASI which was up 6.2%. Exhibit 16 shows the valuation
multiples of all listed cement companies in Saudi.
Exhibit 16: Saudi cement companies – Valuation matrix
Southern Cement (SPCC)
Yamama Cement (YSCC)
Saudi Cement (SCC)
Qassim Cement (QCC)
Yanbu Cement (YCC)
Eastern Cement (EPCC)
Arabian Cement* (ACC)
Al Jouf Cement* (JCC)
Tabuk Cement* (TCC)
Najran Cement* (NAJC)
Reuters
Rating
M-Cap
$mn
3050.SE
3020.SE
3030.SE
3040.SE
3060.SE
3080.SE
3010.SE
3091.SE
3090.SE
3002.SE
Neutral
OW
OW
Neutral
OW
Neutral
NC
NC
NC
NC
3,508
2,434
3,571
2,181
2,824
1,121
1,909
530
579
1,119
Stock perf
Mar
YTD
(4.9) (14.2)
(6.1) (6.1)
(5.6) (8.7)
(6.4)
1.8
1.8
9.0
(1.1) (11.8)
(3.9) (7.8)
(2.1)
8.7
(9.6) (2.8)
(9.5) (6.8)
P/E
EV/
(x) EBITDA
‘15
‘15
13.5
13.0
12.1
14.6
13.3
13.4
10.9
33.6
15.4
19.4
11.8
8.8
10.3
11.2
10.3
8.5
8.2
20.5
11.6
11.7
P/BV EV/ton
(x)
($)
‘15
‘15
4.2
2.4
3.9
4.1
2.9
1.8
2.2
1.4
1.8
2.1
384
323
422
472
452
291
350
449
419
360
DY
(%)
‘15
ROE
(%)
‘15
ROA
(%)
‘15
5.3
6.7
6.9
6.6
6.0
7.2
4.2
0.0
8.3
5.1
32.2
18.6
33.5
28.2
22.0
13.8
20.3
4.1
11.9
10.6
24.6
17.1
24.4
25.6
18.5
12.4
15.6
2.1
6.0
7.2
Source: Bloomberg, NCBC Research
All prices as of 08 April, 2015, * On a TTM basis
NC: Not Covered
Exhibits 17 and 18 illustrate the current valuation of Saudi cement companies.
7
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Exhibit 17: EV per ton vs. EBITDA margin
650
Size of the bubble
indicates M-Cap
Dotted lines represent
industry averages
600
EV/Ton (USD) - 2015E
550
500
Qassim Cement
Yanbu Cement
450
Tabuk Cement*
Saudi Cement
400
Southern Cement
350
Najran Cement
Arabian Cement*
Eastern Cement
300
Yamama Cement
250
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
EBITDA Margin - 2015E
Source: NCBC Research, * is on TTM basis
Exhibit 18: P/E vs. ROE
40
Size of the bubble
indicates M-Cap
Dotted lines represent
industry averages
Southern Cement
Saudi Cement
ROE (%) - 2015E
30
Qassim Cement
Yanbu Cement
20
Arabian Cement*
Yamama Cement
Najran Cement
Eastern Cement
10
Tabuk Cement*
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
P/E - 2015E
Source: NCBC Research, * is on TTM basis
8
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Appendices
Appendix 1 – Cement Production and Sales
Exhibit 19: Cement production and KSA sales
‘000 tons
Description
Production
Cement
Clinker
Domestic Sales
Cement
Clinker
Company-wise Cement Production
Yamama Cement
Saudi Cement
Eastern Cement
Qassim Cement
Yanbu Cement
Arabian Cement
Southern Cement
Tabuk Cement
Riyadh Cement
Najran Cement
City Cement
Northern Cement
Aljouf Cement
Safwa Cement
Hail Cement
Company-wise Domestic Sales
Yamama Cement
Saudi Cement
Eastern Cement
Qassim Cement
Yanbu Cement
Arabian Cement
Southern Cement
Tabuk Cement
Riyadh Cement
Najran Cement
City Cement
Northern Cement
Aljouf Cement
Safwa Cement
Hail Cement
Mar-15
Mar -14
% chg
YoY
Feb-15
% chg
MoM
(Jan- Mar)
2015
2014
% chg
5,799
4,868
5,327
5,214
8.9
(6.6)
5,187
4,288
11.8
13.5
16,530
13,777
15,105
14,053
9.4
(2.0)
5,806
86
5,362
132
8.3
(34.8)
5,192
63
11.8
36.5
16,366
214
14,867
421
10.1
(49.1)
513
763
299
411
662
521
829
125
302
433
228
209
159
193
152
541
761
268
384
585
528
722
163
289
277
190
185
105
192
137
(5.2)
0.3
11.6
7.0
13.2
(1.3)
14.8
(23.3)
4.5
56.3
20.0
13.0
51.4
0.5
10.9
480
652
287
371
615
483
719
100
251
392
216
178
138
174
131
6.9
17.0
4.2
10.8
7.6
7.9
15.3
25.0
20.3
10.5
5.6
17.4
15.2
10.9
16.0
1,500
2,148
855
1,171
1,919
1,520
2,317
346
857
1,235
663
577
457
558
405
1,511
2,149
798
1,080
1,765
1,452
2,039
446
857
709
541
458
359
551
390
(0.7)
(0.0)
7.1
8.5
8.7
4.7
13.6
(22.3)
0.0
74.2
22.6
26.0
27.4
1.3
3.9
519
703
300
411
660
521
837
137
303
448
239
210
172
193
153
534
741
270
381
600
545
735
146
300
274
195
177
123
201
140
(2.8)
(5.1)
11.1
7.9
10.0
(4.4)
13.9
(6.2)
1.0
63.5
22.6
18.6
39.8
(4.0)
9.3
474
649
265
368
609
487
731
125
256
398
212
193
138
158
129
9.5
8.3
13.2
11.7
8.4
7.0
14.5
9.6
18.4
12.6
12.7
8.8
24.6
22.2
18.6
1,494
2,044
824
1,144
1,905
1,520
2,318
392
817
1,245
671
596
448
542
406
1,504
2,039
767
1,075
1,757
1,439
2,053
423
844
696
528
467
330
562
383
(0.6)
0.3
7.4
6.4
8.4
5.6
12.9
(7.4)
(3.2)
78.9
27.1
27.6
35.9
(3.6)
5.9
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
9
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Appendix 2 – Company charts
Yamama Cement (YSCC)
Exhibit 20: Production and sales
Exhibit 21: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
800
3,600
3,000
600
2,400
1,800
400
1,200
200
600
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Dec-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Dec-14
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Dec-14
Clinker Stock
Cement Exports
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Domestic Sales - Cement
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Clinker Production
Dec-13
0
0
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Saudi Cement (SCC)
Exhibit 22: Production and sales
Exhibit 23: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
900
4,200
3,600
750
3,000
2,400
600
1,800
1,200
450
600
Domestic Sales - Cement
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Clinker Stock
Aug-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Clinker Production
Dec-13
0
300
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Eastern Province Cement (EPCC)
Exhibit 24: Production and sales
Exhibit 25: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
350
1,200
300
1,000
800
250
600
200
400
150
200
Clinker Production
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Domestic Sales - Cement
Clinker Stock
Mar-15
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0
Dec-13
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
100
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
10
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Qassim Cement (QCC)
Exhibit 26: Production and sales
Exhibit 27: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
500
1200
400
1000
800
300
600
200
400
100
200
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Oct-14
Nov-14
Aug-14
Feb-15
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Clinker Stock
Dec-14
Cement Exports
Mar-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Domestic Sales - Cement
0
Dec-14
Clinker Production
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
0
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Yanbu Cement (YCC)
Exhibit 28: Production and sales
Exhibit 29: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
800
3500
3000
600
2500
2000
400
1500
200
1000
500
Clinker Production
Cement Exports
Clinker Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Oct-14
Nov-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0
Dec-13
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Domestic Sales - Cement
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
0
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Arabian Cement (ACC)
Exhibit 30: Production and sales
Exhibit 31: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
1400
1200
600
1000
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Clinker Stock
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Domestic Sales - Cement
Nov-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Clinker Production
Dec-13
0
0
Cement Stock
Cement Exports
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
11
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Southern Province Cement (SPCC)
Exhibit 32: Production and sales
Exhibit 33: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
1000
2,400
900
2,000
800
1,600
700
600
1,200
500
800
400
400
300
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Dec-14
Clinker Stock
Cement Exports
Sep-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Domestic Sales - Cement
Nov-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Clinker Production
Feb-14
0
200
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Tabuk Cement (TCC)
Exhibit 34: Production and sales
Exhibit 35: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
700
175
600
150
500
125
400
100
300
200
75
100
Clinker Stock
Domestic Sales - Cement
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Dec-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Clinker Production
Dec-13
0
50
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Al Jouf Cement (JCC)
Exhibit 36: Production and sales
Exhibit 37: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
200
840
160
700
560
120
420
80
Clinker Production
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Clinker Stock
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Mar-15
Jan-15
Domestic Sales - Cement
Feb-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0
Dec-13
140
0
Jan-14
280
40
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
12
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
Najran Cement (NAJC)
Exhibit 38: Production and sales
Exhibit 39: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
3600
500
2700
400
300
1800
200
900
100
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Oct-14
Nov-14
Aug-14
Clinker Stock
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Clinker Production
Feb-14
Dec-13
0
0
Cement Stock
Domestic Sales - Cement
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
City Cement (CCC)
Exhibit 40: Production and sales
Exhibit 41: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
280
800
240
600
200
160
400
120
80
200
40
0
Clinker Production
Domestic Sales - Cement
Oct-14
Nov-14
Aug-14
Clinker Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Mar-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Nov-14
Dec-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
0
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Northern Cement (NRCC)
Exhibit 42: Production and sales
Exhibit 43: Inventory – Cement and clinker
‘000 tons
‘000 tons
300
1500
250
1200
200
900
150
Clinker Production
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
Clinker Stock
Oct-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Dec-13
Mar-15
Jan-15
Domestic Sales - Cement
Feb-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Mar-14
0
Feb-14
0
Jan-14
300
Dec-13
50
Jan-14
600
100
Cement Stock
Source: Yamama Cement, NCBC Research
13
KSA CEMENT MONTHLY
NCB CAPITAL
APRIL 2015
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NCBC Investment Ratings
OVERWEIGHT:
Target price represents an expected increase in the share price in excess of 15% in the next 12 months
NEUTRAL:
Target price represents an expected change in share price between -10% and +15% in the next 12 months
UNDERWEIGHT:
Target price represents an expected fall in share price exceeding 10% in the next 12 months
PRICE TARGET:
Analysts set share price targets for individual companies based on a 12 month horizon. These share price targets are subject to a
range of company specific and market risks. Target prices are based on a methodology chosen by the analyst as the best predictor
of the share price over the 12 month horizon
Other Definitions
NR: Not Rated. The investment rating has been suspended temporarily. Such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or in
circumstances when NCB Capital is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger
or strategic transaction involving the company and in certain other situations
CS: Coverage Suspended. NCBC has suspended coverage of this company
NC: Not covered. NCBC does not cover this company
Important information
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dependants (if relevant) hold a beneficial interest in the securities that are the subject of this document. Funds managed by NCB Capital and
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