Regionalism and Multilateralism – A Forced Marriage? Myrna S. Austria, Ph.D. Economics Department De La Salle University-Manila 1 Regionalism Proliferation of RTAS & bilaterals – the most significant trend in commercial policy Controversial – by nature, discriminatory Yet, trend expected to continue 2 Why regionalism? a. Less incentive for countries to engage in WTO given the extensive tariff liberalization over the past two decades. WTO continue to focus on tariffs in manufactured products and less on agricultural products Tariffs no longer the most important obstacle to international trade 3 Why regionalism? b. Non-tariff and non-border issues increasingly becoming more important for improving international exchange Difficult to handle in WTO because of political sensitivity, national sovereignty concerns IPR, domestic regulation and competition, labor and environment protection Issues easier to negotiate bilaterally or by likeminded countries compared to the diverse WTO membership 4 Why regionalism? c. Trauma of Asian financial crisis d. Lost of momentum in APEC e. For the case of the ASEAN Pressure to stay competitive, given the rapid emergence of China as an economic power and the growing attraction of India to FDI; ¾ ¾ Competitive liberalization in order attract FDI; Need to increase leverage in trade negotiations and discussions ¾ 5 Making regionalism work in favor of global free trade Review of Article XXIV; strict enforcement ¾ ¾ ¾ Article XXIV of GATT has not been binding; WTOconsistency test for RTAs Adoption of liberal rules of origin (ROO) Ensure broad product coverage, including sensitive sectors and minimizing exclusions; provide clear phase-outs of exclusions. 6 Making regionalism work in favor of global free trade • Frank assessment of RTAs, taking into account their stated motivations whether the stated motivations are best met by using RTAs • Successful conclusion of the Doha Round - still the best solution to possible adverse effects arising form the proliferation of RTAs 7 Areas of Research Investment issues as they relate to RTAs/FTAs ¾ Implications of investment diversion due to RTAS ¾ FDI, technology transfers and productivity spillovers Reforms at the WTO – Article XXIV; framework for regionalism Common framework for bilateralism/regionalism for the ASEAN Ex-post empirical work on the impact of trade liberalization Impact of non-tariff and non border issues on growth Dynamic effects of RTAs 8 Thank You 9
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