Is the Pacific Alliance a potential pathway to the FTAAP? Camilo Pérez-Restrepo1 & Adriana Roldan-Pérez2 Asia-Pacific Studies Centre- Universidad EAFIT (Colombia) Priority: Enhancing the Regional Economic Integration: Pathways to FTAAP Abstract: The establishment of a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) is one of the APEC priorities to enhance regional economic integration beyond the Bogor Goals. This was reflected in the Beijing Roadmap for APEC in 2014. There are multiple pathways that could converge into the FTAPP. This includes the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This paper discusses the potential of the Pacific Alliance (PA) as an additional pathway also contributing to the FTAAP. The paper is composed of four main sections: the first one provides an update on the recent evolution of the Pacific Alliance. The second section characterizes PA’s trade relations with APEC economies and other economies in Asia. The third section makes a parallel between the PA on other FTAAP pathways including TPP and RCEP in terms of the main areas of negotiation. The last section discusses the opportunities the PA offers as a potential pathway to the negotiation of the FTAAP. 1 Camilo Perez-Restrepo: Assistant Professor at the Asia-Pacific Studies Centre, Universidad EAFIT. Prof. Perez-Restrepo is Master on Public Policy from Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, at the National University of Singapore (NUS). He has experience as advisor to the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council and the Colombian government. 2 Adriana Roldan-Perez: Associate Professor at the Asia-Pacific Studies Centre, Universidad EAFIT. Prof. Roldan-Perez holds a Master on International Relations from Wadesa University in Japan and is currently doctoral candidate in the same institution. She has experience as consultant for the private sector in Colombia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. 1 Introduction Due to the enormous potential of the eventual consolidation of the FTAAP bringing together the most important Asia-Pacific economies, compared with results that would be achieved via the Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPP)3 or Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)4, regional economies have begun to discuss possible strategies to facilitate the eventual convergence of the agreements. The discussion has begun to evolve moving from the traditional view where the pathways were seen as competitors (TPP vs. RCEP), toward seeking the convergence of their interests. Working towards the convergence of these arrangements is among the most important challenges facing the APEC and one that would have significant importance for its future. The negotiation of a Free Trade Area of Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), was first discussed during the twelfth APEC Leaders Summit in Santiago de Chile in November 2004. This initiative surged in response to FTAs proliferation in the region, and as a mecahnism to boost APEC’s economic cooperation, investment and trade liberalization agenda beyond the Bogor Goals. APEC members recognized the increasing complexity of the network of trade agreements in Asia, and the costs associated with such complexity. APEC members welcomed FTAAp intiiative in 2006 during the Leaders´s Summit held in Hanoi. However, it was not until 2010 that during the Leaders Summit in Yokohama, when specific actions towards the creation of the FTAAP were announced. The FTAAP was conceived as a comprehensive free trade agreement developed and built on the basis of existing trade liberalization initiatives. The FTAAP has reminded a key priority for APEC economies ever since. Some of the most recent actions towards the harmonization of TPP and RCEP provisions include the Beijing Roadmap for APEC contribution to the realization of the FTAAP launched in 2014 in China, established specific actions to promote the negotiation of this agreement, such as the creation of a collective strategic study on issues related to the realization of the FTAAP. These initiatives, remind at the centre of APEC priorities for 2015. According to authors like C.Fred Bergsten, Noland, and Schott (2011) among other advocates the FTAAP idea, this agreement would be the largest trade liberalization exercise in history. Trade figures in the region reflect FTAAP’s enormous commercial potential. The intra-APEC trade is a third of world trade. For most of the regional economies, trade with other APEC economies represents over 65% their exports and imports. Such amount is comparable to the most advanced integration processes, including the European Union. The establishment of the FTAAP would further increase economic interdependence among its members. The benefits would extend beyond APEC to influence multilateral negotiations in the WTO. Furthermore, the FTAAP would reduce the problems arising from the 3 TPP negotiations include Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Chile, United States, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States and Vietnam. 4 RCEP negotiations include ASEAN 10 members (Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos y Myanmar), together with China, Japan, Korea, India, Australia y New Zealand. 2 proliferation of bilateral agreements, in particular, differences in the rules of origin. This is particularly important, considering that given the current TPP and RCEP negotiation, add further complexity to an already existing "noodle bowl" of bilateral agreements that characterises economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region (Baldwin, 2006). The TPP and RCEP offer a positive sum that promise substantial benefits to all participants in the medium and long-term. Both could eventually converge on a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP), as promoted by APEC. However, if no such convergence occurs, the FTAAP project would be incomplete, since the two major world economies, the United States and China, would not be linked by any agreement. In the short-term, a transpacific agreement covering all economies in this region does not appear feasible in the macroeconomic and political contexts. It is unlikely that in the short-term China offer significant concessions in areas related to state-owned enterprises, services, intellectual property, and environment and labor sectors of great importance to the United States. Therefore, competition between the two models continue until more favorable conditions for an eventual convergence between them are developed (Kuriyama, 2012). The different pathways leading to the FTAAP are interdependent. Each influences the other by demonstrating progress and attracting new members. Since the potential gains from trade are especially significant for the economies involved, the ideal template would be one that provides improved market access for the manufacturing sector in the emerging economies while also offer substantial benefits on services, investment and high-tech industries to advanced economies in the region. The economic argument for a more comprehensive template is that it represents not only the interests of the United States, but broadens the scope of liberalization and the potential gains for all participants. As a result of this, many economies such as Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand are involved in the negotiation of both TPP and RCEP. Chart 1. APEC and the Pacific Alliance 3 In addition to the TPP and RCEP as alternative pathways leading to the FTAAP, there is a group of APEC economies (Chile, Mexico, and Peru), that along with Colombia, another Latin American Pacific nation, have launched a parallel regional economic integration process via the liberalization of trade, services, investment and a freer movement of people. This group is the Pacific Alliance (PA), one of the most dynamic economic liberalization processes, with over 30 observers, including several APEC economies. This agreement has the potential to evolve to include these economies as members, and as such, become an alternative pathway to achieve the FTAAP. The paper is composed of four main sections: the first one provides an update on the recent evolution of the Pacific Alliance. The second section characterizes PA’s trade & investment relations with APEC economies. The third section makes a parallel between the Pacific Alliance on other FTAAP tracks including TPP and RCEP in terms of the main areas of negotiation. The last section discusses the opportunities the PA offers as a potential pathway to the negotiation of the FTAAP. 1. Creation and evolution of the Pacific Alliance As one of the most ambitious integration processes in Latin America, the Pacific Alliance (PA) seeks the gradual construction of a deep integration area between Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, leading to a free movement of goods, services, and capital and a freer movement of people. This group is one of the most promissory mechanisms for regional economic integration because of its scope, objectives and the common foreign and economic policy orientation of its members. The group is emerging as the first Latin American regional integration initiative that includes among its founding objectives, the projection its members to the Asia-Pacific region. The PA has a combined population of 216 million inhabitants with a GDP of US$ 2.1 trillion, equivalent to 35% of regional GDP, and an average per capita GDP of US$ 10,131. The four countries represent 50% of total trade in goods in the region, with exports exceeding $ 558,000 million and imports by $ 563,000 million in 2013. In the same year, these four countries received FDI accounting for almost US$ 86,000 million, and were the destination of more than 32 million tourists. The Pacific Alliance (PA) was created when Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru signed the Declaration of Lima on April 28, 2011. After a series of high-level meetings to further discuss the agreement, PA’s institutional foundations and objectives were laid down in the Framework Agreement signed in Antofagasta, Chile on June 6, 2012. The process was further advanced with the negotiation of an Additional Protocol to the Framework Agreement signed on February 10, 2014 in Cartagena, Colombia. This agreement builds upon previously existing (mainly bilateral) trade agreements between PA members, going beyond the basic tariff reduction. The agreement is comprised of 19 chapters on issues at the core of regional integration, such as market access, trade in services, rules of origin, technical 4 barriers to trade (TBT), sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) requirements, trade facilitation & customs cooperation, government procurement, e-commerce, investment and dispute settlement, among other areas of cooperation among member countries (Direcon, 2014). Despite is recent creation, PA has already set a record of important achievements Some of the key achievements include: the stock& exchange market integration among its members through the initiative known as the Integrated Latin American Market (MILA for its acronym in Spanish); the establishment of a visa waiver program among its members; the creation of a student and academic mobility platform and the Pacific Alliance Business Council (CEAP for its acronym in Spanish). Member countries have also set a series of cooperation mechanisms on tourism, trade & investment promotion, and even an agreement to share embassies and diplomatic missions around the world. Moreover, after holding nine presidential summits since its inception, and the changes in the governments of Chile, Mexico and Peru, the Pacific Alliance remains at the core of regional integration, thus demonstrating the high-level political commitment among its members. The PA has drawn the attention of the international community. The group currently has 32 observer countries belonging to all regions of the world, including eight APEC members (United States, Canada, China, Japan, Singapore, Korea, Australia and New Zealand). Two of the current observers (Costa Rica and Panama) aspire to become members of the group in the short-term. Furthermore, the open and inclusive nature of the Alliance has also allowed it to promote an approach to other Latin American integration mechanisms such as Mercosur. Achieving greater trade and economic integration with Mercosur has a strategic importance for the PA, both for the promotion of productive linkages between the two groups as to increase PA’s attractiveness as an international actor. 2. Assessment of the Pacific Alliances achievements towards regional integration A central element of the assessment of regional trade agreements (RTAs) such as the Pacific Alliance (PA), the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is the comparison of the provisions contained in the agreement vis-à-vis World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements. The agreements are considered deep to the extent that its provisions constitute a significant improvement in comparison to the conditions that parties would otherwise have as members of the WTO (Wignaraja et al 2012; Dür et al 2014). For there to be substantial economic benefits from the negotiation of RTAs among a group of countries, the agreement should have comprehensive provisions on market access, services, investment and new generation issues such as public procurement, regulatory coherence and trade facilitation, among others. The following section assesses PA’s achievements in some of these areas: 5 Table 1: Main provisions of the Pacific Alliance Market Access5 The PA is a comprehensive agreement in terms of market access. Members agreed immediate liberalization on 92% of the tariff lines upon entry into force. This comprises the tariff lines that were previously liberalized via FTAs among PA members. The remaining 8% will have tariff reduction periods between three and 17 years. A limited amount of tariff lines (less than 1%) was excluded from the negotiation. Tariff reduction measured by the volume of trade (exports plus imports) reveals that about 99 % of the trade among PA members will be liberalized once the tariff reduction schedule is completed. 6 Services The PA is a comprehensive agreement in terms of services liberalization. The agreement enhances service liberalization visà-vis the previous FTAs commitments among members. PA’s agreements cover the five key sectors, including telecommunications and the financial services that were restricted in most of the previous regional FTAs. The new agreement also addresses issues that were absent from bilateral FTAs such as e-commerce and maritime transportation services. 7 Investment Investment promotion and protection among PA members contemplates the elements of MFN, and pre & postestablishment national treatment for investors across all sectors (including telecommunications and banking, as previously mentioned). Furthermore, PA created a Joint Committee on Services and Investment that will serve as a platform to solve disputes and improve the regional investment environment. 8 Public Procurement The PA established a common regulatory framework for public procurement. Before signing the protocol, not all member 5 The General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT) from 1994 is the baseline for market access liberalization. Based on this agreement, an RTA that eliminates tariffs on 85% of tariff lines is considered covering substantially all trade. Additionally, paragraph 5 (c) of Article XXIV, states a "reasonable time" as one that does not exceed ten years. Therefore, RTAs that eliminates 85% of tariff lines in ten years, are classified as a relatively deep and fast approach to tariff liberalization. 6 The General Agreement of Trade in Services (GATS) is the reference point on services liberalization. A regional agreement is deem comprehensive as long as it covers five key sectors (business and professional, communications, financial, transport, and labor mobility and entry of business persons). 7 Most comprehensive RTAs have investment liberalization provisions that go beyond the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status and grant national treatment both at the pre-establishment and post-establishment stages, as well has including explicit prohibitions to performance requirements. Comprehensive agreements also include regulatory requirements such as dispute resolution mechanisms, the free transfer of investment dividends, among other benefits for investors. 8 The WTO Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) serves as the baseline for public procurement liberalization. GPA’s minimum commitments, include the principle of non-discrimination (domestic treatment) and transparency. A RTA is comprehensive if in addition to this two principles, includes GPA+ provisions such as public e-procurement, special incentives to SMEs, and cooperation. 6 countries had public procurement provisions in their bilateral agreements. The new agreement updates the previous bilateral provisions on transparency, national treatment, nondiscrimination, dispute settlement and public e-procurement. The agreement also includes rules and actions to promote SMEs participation on public procurement. In addition to this, it eliminates existing reservations, hence expanding the number of public entities that are allowed to open procurement bids to foreign firms from other PA members. Trade Facilitation and The PA offers substantive achievements on trade facilitation and Customs customs cooperation. Commitments include 1) Information 9 Cooperation exchange between customs authorities; 2) expedite clearance of goods, using international standards and automating information; 3) simplify customs procedures; 4) include mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators; and 5) facilitate Single Windows interoperability. Rules of Origin The PA member negotiated harmonized rules of origin system. The most important improvement compared to previous agreements is the establishment of a “cumulative rules of origin” which allows PA members to share production and jointly comply with the relevant rules of origin provisions. The agreement also contemplates flexible requirements when inputs are not produced within the PA area. The “cumulative rules of origin” allow supplier networks diversification, boost production linkages, and regional value chains among its members. Technical barriers to The main achievement was the creation of a Committee on trade (TBT) Technical Barriers to Trade, which will monitor the exercise of transparency and regulatory cooperation among members. The agreement also established a Committee on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS) to address the potential trade problems that arise in the food trade among members. These two chapters contain provisions that go beyond the commitments made in the bilateral FTAs and the WTO. The members established special committees to promote regulatory cooperation in the cosmetics and pharmaceutical sectors. Regulatory Coherence The PA is aiming to be at the forefront of regulatory coherence. The High Level Group (HLG) established a technical group to negotiate this chapter. The group had two negotiation rounds in 2013 and 2014, but the final agreement is yet to be signed. Source: Alianza del Pacífico (2014a); Direcon (2014) and SICE-OAS (2014) 9 The WTO defines trade facilitation as "the simplification and harmonization of trade procedures, including activities, practices and formalities required in the collection, presentation, communication and data processing required for the movement of goods" (WTO, 2011). The basic principles are: transparency, simplification, harmonization, cooperation and modernization. RTA is comprehensive if it covers this five basic principles. 7 3. Pacific Alliance’s trade relations with APEC economies. The countries in the Pacific Alliance have consolidated as important actors at the international trade scene. Several factors such that explain their increasing participation on international trade included economic reforms, the negotiation of free trade agreements with the main trade partners, the commodities boom, the internationalization of their companies (multilatinas) and the expansion of their trade relations with the Asia-Pacific region. PA exports grew at a 15% average during the last decade. PA’s exports to the world exceeded US$ 558,000 million in 201310, equivalent to 3.1% of the world’s exports. However, the PA maintains a high concentration in terms of its partners and a relatively low intra-regional. 80% of exports of the region go to only three partners: the United States, China and Canada. Also, about 80% of imports come from the United States, China and Japan. These amounts contrast with the low intra-regional trade among PA economies. Intra-PA trade in 2013, was US$19,475 million, barely 3.5% of the regional exports. These figures demonstrate the strong links between the PA and APEC economies. Based on 2013 figures, AP exports to APEC were US$ 432,946 million (about 78% of PA’s export to the world) while imports from the APEC were US$ $ 428.096 million (about 76% of PA’s imports from the world). While a bulk of these trade relations derives from Mexico’s relations with NAFTA members, there are interesting trends to be observed on Asia- PA trade. PA’s exports to Asia reached US$77, 118 million in 2013. This is 13.8% of its exports to the world. PA’s imports from Asia were close to US$ 172,867 million, equivalent to 30.7% of this group’s imports from the world. PA’s exports to Asia grew at 18% average over the period 2008-2013, while imports grew at an average of 16% over the same period. In other words, in terms of trade, members of the Pacific Alliance, are more integrated with other APEC economies in Asia than among themselves. Table 2: Pacific Alliance exports: intra-regional, to APEC and world (US$ millions) PA % Expo to world Asia % Expo to world APEC % Expo to world World Chile 4,153 5.4% 37,404 48.3% 50,267 64.9% 77,367 Colombia 3,710 6.3% 9,152 15.6% 29,066 49.4% 58,822 Mexico 8,591 2.3% 17,910 4.7% 329,061 86.6% 380,096 Peru 3,022 7.2% 12,652 30.2% 24,552 58.6% 41,871 Total 19,475 3.5% 77,118 13.8% 432,946 77.6% 558,156 Source: Authors based on Comtrade (2014) Table 3: Pacific Alliance imports: intra-regional, to APEC and world (US$ millions) 10 The authors used 2013 data because at the moment of collecting information for this paper (February, 2015) trade data for Peru in 2014 was preliminary. 8 PA % Impo % Impo Asia world % Impo APEC world world World Chile 6,031 7.6% 24,450 30.7% 45,712 57.4% 79,616 Colombia 8,207 13.8% 16,208 27.3% 40,081 67.5% 59,381 Mexico 2,935 0.8% 118,092 31.0% 315,986 82.9% 381,210 Peru 4,614 10.6% 14,117 32.6% 26,317 60.7% 43,357 Total 21,787 3.9% 172,867 30.7% 428,096 75.9% 563,564 Source: Authors based on Comtrade (2014) In 2013, the largest exporter to Asia was Chile with US$ 37,404 million, followed by Mexico, Peru and Colombia. The main importer from Asia was Mexico, with US$ 118,092 million, followed by Chile, Colombia and Peru. These figures evidence the existence of a considerable trade deficit between the PA and Asian economies. This situation is mainly explained due to Mexico’s significant trade deficit and to a lesser extend Colombia. This situation is contrasted against Chile and Peru that in recent years often had positive trade balances with Asian economies. The most important trade partners in Asia for PA economies are: China, Japan, India, and Korea in terms of both imports and exports. These four economies are observers in the PA process. Table 4: Pacific Alliance exports to selected Asian economies (US$ millions) Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Total Total Asia 37.404 9.152 17.910 12.652 77.118 Australia 801 48 988 131 1.968 Brunei Darussalam 0 0 5 - 5 Cambodia 1 2 1 0 4 China 19.219 5.102 6.465 7.342 38.128 Korea 4.272 230 1.525 1.541 7.568 Philippines 157 13 105 128 403 Hong Kong 177 78 957 86 1.298 India 2.304 2.993 3.525 593 9.415 Indonesia 231 15 213 105 564 Japan 7.661 388 2.241 2.228 12.518 Laos 0 - 1 - 1 Malaysia 228 107 176 56 567 Myanmar 2 - 2 0 4 9 New Zealand 38 12 112 23 185 Singapore 119 61 577 21 778 Chinese Taipei 1.645 40 487 212 2.384 Thailand 242 44 425 141 852 Vietnam 307 19 105 45 476 Source: Authors based on Comtrade (2014) Table 5: Pacific Alliance imports from selected Asian economies (US$ millions) Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Total Total Asia 24.450 16.208 118.092 14.117 172.867 Australia 414 64 518 133 1.129 Brunei Darussalam 0 0 0 0 0 Cambodia 17 11 75 7 110 China 15.702 10.363 61.321 8.399 95.785 Korea 2.771 1.296 13.493 1.590 19.150 Philippines 41 48 1.593 30 1.712 Hong Kong 122 78 289 19 508 India 739 1.144 2.868 723 5.474 Indonesia 186 220 1.149 206 1.761 Japan 2.495 1.479 17.076 1.439 22.489 Laos 0 0 1 0 1 Malaysia 262 198 5.379 200 6.039 Myanmar 2 0 6 0 8 New Zealand 112 12 371 81 576 Singapore 74 113 1.456 58 1.701 Chinese Taipei 472 557 6.689 443 8.161 Thailand 759 309 4.322 654 6.044 Vietnam 282 316 1.486 136 2.220 Source: Authors based on Comtrade (2014) The PA economies have negotiated a series of bilateral trade agreements as an instrument of trade liberalization. Their FTAs network extends to all regions of the world and includes both developed and developing partners. At the APEC level, there are over 25 FTAs currently in place between PA members and APEC economies (excluding Chile, Mexico and Peru as they are also part of the PA). APEC economies such as the United States and 10 Canada, have already negotiated comprehensive FTAs with all the PA economies, thus reaffirming the importance of the linkages between the two regions. The FTA negotiation between PA members and economies in Asia also offers some interesting insights. While Chile and Peru already have a number of FTAs with Asian economies, the establishment of this type of agreements is an ongoing process for them as much as it is for Mexico and Colombia that only have one of such agreements with an Asian economy. Mexico has an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan since 2005, while Colombia ratified its FTA with Korea in 2014. To date, members of the PA continue to conduct its trade negotiations with Asia individually. Following the signature of PA’s Framework Agreement June 2012, Colombia began negotiations for an EPA with Japan in December of that year, while Chile did the same with Indonesia in May 2014. The greatest progress in terms of tariff reductions has been made with Japan and Korea. All PA economies have a current agreement with Japan, except for Colombia that is under negotiation. Chile, Peru and Colombia have existing agreements with Korea; while Mexico has raised the possibility of resuming negotiations with Korea suspended since 2008 (Kim, 2013). Other observers in Asia such as China and Singapore also have agreements with Chile and Peru that could be used by PA members as an export platform to these markets. Table 6: Pacific Alliance FTAs with observers and selected Asian economies. Status Pacific Alliance Observers FTA Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Australia 2009 China 2006 Korea 2004 India 2007 (a) Japan 2007 New Zealand 2006 (b) Singapore 2006 (b) Costa Rica 1999 Neg. 2011 2011 Ecuador 2008 1997 (d) 1983 1997 (d) El Salvador 1999 2007 2011 Neg. Guatemala 1999 2007 2011 Neg. Honduras 1999 2007 2011 Neg. Panama 2006 2013 2014 2011 Paraguay 1996 2005 (d) 2002 2005 (d) 2010 2013 Neg. 2011 Neg. 2005 2012 2009 Dominican Rep Trinidad & Tobago 1998 11 Uruguay 1996 2005 (d) 2002 2005 (d) Canada 1996 2008 1994 (c ) 2008 United States 2004 2012 1994 (c ) 2009 EU members* 2003 2013 2000 2013 2013 2000 2001 Israel Morocco Switzerland 2004 2011 Turkey 2011 Neg. Brunei Darussalam 2006 (b) 2011 Neg. Cambodia Other Asian Economies Hong Kong 2014 Indonesia Neg. Philippines Laos Malaysia 2012 Myanmar Thailand 2012 Vietnam 2014 2011 * Germany, Belgium, Spain, Finland, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and United Kingdom Signed and in force Signed but not yet in force Neg. Under negotiation Source: Authors based ADBI FTAs database (2014) 12 4. Parallel between the Pacific Alliance and other FTAAP Pathways The following section assesses PA’s goals and achievements in comparison to the objectives established on TPP and RCEP negotiations. The table includes the relevant matters of regional economic integration such as tariff barriers, trade facilitation, services and investment liberalization, as well the most important new generation issues such as intellectual property, environment, public procurement, competition and labour. Based on the assessment, in most areas the PA is an intermediate alternative between a highstandards TPP process and a more shadow RCEP liberalization. TPP and RCEP assessment is based on Petri & Abdul-Raheem (2014) on the PECC State of the Region (2014) and the PA assessment is based on official documents, in particular the PA Additional Protocol to the Framework Agreement (2014) and PA’s presidential declarations. At his point, it is important to keep in mind that the three agreements (TPP, RCEP, and even the PA) are ongoing processes. Table 7. Comparing the Pacific Alliance and other FTAAP pathways Transpacific Partnership (TPP) Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) Market Elimination of tariff barriers Progressive elimination of tariff Access with significant WTO+ and non-tariff barriers on commitments. substantially all trade in goods Elimination of non-tariff Comprehensive and high level barriers of tariff liberalization Negotiated market access and trade facilitation for textile and apparel Trade Predictable, transparent and Facilitate trade and investment, facilitation expeditious customs enhance transparency in trade procedures. and investment Strong and common rules of Facilitate regional and global origin value chains Build WTO commitments on SPS and TBT measures. Pacific Alliance (PA) Immediate liberalization based on previous commitments among PA members under their bilateral FTAs Progressive elimination of tariffs on the rest of the products Negative list approach but limited exceptions. Elimination of non-tariff barriers Harmonized rules of origin system and rule of origin accumulation system. Comprehensive commitments on SPS and TBT (special committees were created) 13 Facilitate regional value chains Services Investment Competition Fair, open and transparent markets for services across borders, while preserving the right to regulate Open trade and investment in financial services, ecommerce and telecommunications Negotiate on negative list basis Transparency and efficiency in temporary entry Liberal access for investment and legal protection for investors Expeditious, fair and transparent investor-state dispute settlement Promote competitive business environment, Substantially eliminate restrictions and discriminatory measures on trade in services Build on commitments made by RCEP members under WTO and ASEAN+1 FTAs. Negotiate on all sectors and modes of supply Liberal, facilitative, competitive investment regime Negotiate on promotion, protection, facilitation and liberalization Promote competition, economic efficiency, consumer welfare, Information exchange between customs authorities Simplify customs procedures Mutual recognition of Authorized Economic Operators Facilitates Single Windows interoperability. Comprehensive agreement in terms of services liberalization Enhances service liberalization visà-vis the previous FTAs among members Covers five key sectors (GATS+) Addresses issues that were absent from bilateral FTAs such as ecommerce, and maritime transportation services All PA economies are involved in Trade in Service Agreement (TISA) negotiations Investment promotion and protection contemplates the elements of MFN, national treatment for investors. Created the Joint Committee on Services and Investment Promotes competition and antimonopoly practices. 14 Intellectual property Dispute resolution Cooperation protect consumers, ensure level playing field Establishment and maintenance of competition laws and authorities, fairness, transparency, consumer protection, private rights Ensure effective and balanced intellectual property rights Reinforce and extend WTO TRIPS Cover trademarks, geographical indications, copyrights, patents, trade secrets, data exclusivity Cover intellectual property enforcement, genetic resources and traditional knowledge Clear and effective rules for resolving disputes Focus on needs of developing member economies in implementing high-standard provisions curtailing anti-competitive practices Recognize differences in capacity in RCEP on competitive policy Build on the competition agreements included in the previous FTAs among members. Reduce intellectual property related barriers to trade and investment Promote cooperation in utilization, protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights. Ongoing negotiation Working Group to prepare and implement a work plan with joint and specific cooperative actions between intellectual property offices Cooperation activities in three areas: Copyright, Industrial Property and Cross-Disciplinary Aspects Effective, efficient and transparent process for consultation and dispute resolution. Build on cooperation agreements between ASEAN and dialogue partners Clear and effective rules. The group has established committees to solve SPS, TBT, and Investments disputes and a committee on regulatory coherence. Cooperation on: SMEs; Environment and Climate Change; Innovation, Science and 15 Establish institutional mechanism for cooperation and capacity building Focus on development gaps in RCEP and maximize mutual benefits. Accession Open to all APEC economies Environment Government procurement Address trade and environment challenges Discuss maritime fisheries, conservation, biodiversity, invasive species, climate change, environmental goods and services. Ensure fair, transparent, nondiscriminatory government procurement Comparable coverage by all economies; transitional arrangements for developing economies ASEAN FTA partners may join negotiations as agreed by negotiating members Accession clause to enable other ASEAN FTA partners to join RCEP Technology; Social Development; Education and Tourism Student and Academic Mobility platform. Cooperation program to improve SME competitiveness MOU on tourism cooperation There is an accession clause that allows PA observer members adhere to the agreement. The adhering country must have a comprehensive FTA at least with one of the members. Ongoing negotiation Environment and climate change cooperation. Scientific Research network on Climate Change Common regulatory framework on public procurement. Updates previous bilateral provisions on transparency, national treatment, non-discrimination, dispute settlement and public eprocurement Promotes SMEs participation on public procurement. 16 Eliminates existing reservations on public procurement. Labour Address labour rights Ongoing negotiation protection and ensure Member countries eliminated visa cooperation, coordination and requires for tourism, transit and dialogue business travels. Restricted labour mobility. Cooperation towards academic homologation on some professions. Based on: Petri & Abdul-Raheem (2014) for TPP and RCEP and Alianza del Pacífico (2014a), (2014b), Direcon (2014) for PA. 17 Conclusions: Is the Pacific Alliance a pathway potentially leading toward the FTAAP? Over recent years, the Pacific Alliance members have developed important trade links with the Asia- Pacific economies, thus confirming the strategic importance of this region to the group. The relationship with North America could be largely attributed to the huge trade flows between Mexico and other NAFTA members, and due to the historical trade dependency between Chile, Colombia and Peru from the United States. The strengthening of trade relations with Asia-Pacific, meanwhile, is a more recent process and has been frequently mentioned as one of the PA’s strategic goals. Several economies in the region, particularly China, Japan and Korea, are already among PA’s most important trading partners. As a consequence of the growing trade links between these regions, there are more than 15 free trade agreements in force between PA’s members and a number of AsiaPacific economies. However, this diversity of FTAs are also evidence of the lack of an integrated approach to achieve trade, services and investment liberalization between the two regions. This is the most important challenge ahead for the region. The PA process has a series of opportunities to serve as a platform for Asia-Pacific integration, beyond its current Latin American members, and consolidate itself as a more solid pathway leading to regional integration in the form of the FTAAP. The PA was created with the foundation objective of enhancing its members’ trade and diplomatic relations with the Asia-Pacific region. The group is willing to find scenarios for integration, trade and cooperation with regional economies. The FTAAP would be one of such scenarios. Furthermore, after nine presidential summits and changes in the governments in Chile, Mexico and Peru, the group maintains high-level commitment with the process and its foundational objectives. The PA is a “living agreement”11 that welcomes observer members to join the process and where the parties have agreed to include new topics as the negotiations evolve. This flexibility is very important in the light of the potential interest of other Asia-Pacific economies to join the process or the eventual need to incorporate new disciplines into the agreements as it evolves. Based on the provisions negotiated among PA members on areas of tariffs, trade facilitation, services & investment liberalization, and new generation issues such as intellectual property, environment, labour and public procurement, the group offers an intermediate level of integration. The PA is not as ambitious as the TPP, hence could be Opportunities 11 See Fergusson et al (2013) for the concept of “living agreement” in the context of the TPP. 18 more interesting for APEC economies that are not ready or not willing to commit to TPP high-level conditions. At the same time, the PA offers a deeper form of integration that the RCEP. All PA member economies are part of Trade in Service Agreement (TISA) negotiations. The fact that all PA members are part of this negotiation platform on services constitutes a strength compared to TPP and RCEP initiatives (not all their members are part of TISA). This further enhances PA position in the centre of regional integration. The TISA negotiations also include other nine APEC economies (Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, Chinese Taipei and the United States). Latin American economies are currently leading the PA process, and as such there are not antagonisms (i.e. TPP not including China vs. RCEP not including the United States). As observers, both United States and China, are following the process and based on the PA accession rules, would be welcome to join the agreement in the future. United States already has comprehensive FTAs with all PA members, while China has done so with Chile, Peru and Costa Rica (future member). The PA also includes India among its observers, so it could be an agreement that solves the issue of India not being part of APEC, hence not being able to join TPP negotiations. Chile, Mexico and Peru are part of APEC economies and TPP process. As such, they have a higher level of coordination with other regional economies. This could be solved with Colombia’s accession to APEC, further involvement on APEC working group and/or the establishment of a common APEC strategy among PA members. The PA is long overdue to establish a common strategy that integrates its member’s efforts towards greater integration to Asia-Pacific. The common strategy should include elements of diplomacy, negotiation of comprehensive trade & investment agreements, economic and technical cooperation between PA members and other Asia-Pacific economies. As an ongoing process, this is particularly crucial in a context where major integration initiatives in Asia-Pacific, such as the ASEAN Economic Community, TPP, and RCEP are taking place. The establishment of a coordinated PA & Asia-Pacific strategy would the first step toward the consolidation of the PA as an alternative pathway leading to the FTAAP. Such strategy would set the foundations to incorporate more Asia-Pacific economies in the negotiation process, to establish more efficient interaction channels with groups such as ASEAN, and to negotiate more comprehensive trade agreements with Asia. This is one of the most urging challenges for PA governments, but also one of the most promissory opportunities. 19 References Alianza del Pacífico (2014a). “Acuerdo Marco de la Alianza del Pacífico“(available online: http://www.acuerdoscomerciales.gob.pe/images/stories/alianza/espanol/declaracion_ ceap__junio_2014.pdf). ----------------------------- (2014b). “Protocolo Adicional al Acuerdo Marco de la Alianza del Pacífico” (Available online: http://alianzapacifico.net/documents/2014/PROTOCOLO_COMPLETO.pdf). Baldwin, R. E., (2006), “Multilateralising Regionalism: Spaghetti Bowls as Building ……Blocs on the Path to Global Free Trade.” World Economy, 29, 1451-1518. Bergsten, C. Fred and Noland, Marcus and Schott, Jeffrey J. (2011). The Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific: A Constructive Approach to Multilateralising Asian Regionalism. ADBI Working Paper No. 336. 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