Working in Partnership Operational impact forecasting and warning Paul Davies, Met Office Chief Meteorologist © Crown copyright Met Office Typhoon Haiyan Typhoon Haiyan storm surge WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions Going the extra mile – can science deliver?? “I would rather die with my refrigerator than let it be taken by a storm surge” 2014 © Crown copyright Met Office STAKEHOLDER MEETING, MANILA WMO Fact Finding Mission : summary and conclusions Why did many people stay in their homes and did not move to safety? Possible reasons: •  Did not know of the danger •  They knew about it but chose to ignore it •  Many people didn’t understand the science such as what is meant by ‘storm surge’ or how far the water would go •  Some people moved to evacuation centres which turned out to be in the inundation area – some died there © Crown copyright Met Office Big Data, Big Science Each day the Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations, completes 20 quadrillion (1015) calculations, archives 10 Tera (1012) bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day Environmental Prediction Modelling the ‘Earth System’… Recognising the challenges Increasing our vulnerability and exposure © Crown copyright Met Office Holistic approach to impact and risk Major Uncertainty Some progress, still a limiting factor Considerable progress HYDROMET, CLIMATE & GEOPHYSICAL EXPOSURE ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION IMPACT VULNERABILITY QUANTIFYING & REDUCING RISK Typhoon Hagupit: © Crown copyright Met Office Typhoon Hagupit: Ensembles TWO scenarios 1.  Stalling northerly – landfall not until Tuesday or later. Main hazards: Heavy rainfall, severe inland flooding and landslides. Probability 70% 2.  Fast westerly – landfall later Saturday or early Sunday. Main Hazards: wind and storm surge. Probability 30%. Advice on impacts © Crown copyright Met Office Thursday, 23 April Thank You