Download Report

Web Trends Report Q3 2014
Netbiscuits Web Trends Report Q3 2014
Based on data from Netbiscuits Mobile Analytics, with an average sample of almost one billion page
impressions per month, this report analyzes key web traffic trends across mobile devices. In this
report, we review traffic from Q3 2014 (July to September) as well as incorporating data from October
to analyze the immediate impact of Apple’s product announcements at the end of the quarter.
This Report explores the ways in which the Web, on mobile devices, continues to evolve, and
takes a closer look at the mobile phone landscape, assessing how changes in this space
will impact mobile strategies and what marketers and developers need to consider.
Contents
Introduction: Context is now more important than ever
1. Device variety is a challenge but a huge opportunity
2. Phablets double share of traffic in 6 months
3.Android tablets a Christmas stocking filler
4. Vendors look to new market segments
5. Market Summary by Region
6. Conclusion
© Netbiscuits 2014
Context is now more important than ever
There is a wealth of data, generated by mobile devices
During Q3 2014, the device library that powers and
that marketers can use in order to provide customers
underpins Netbiscuits Mobile Analytics grew faster than
with experiences that match their expectations. In
ever before. As the smartphone market matures, we
contrast to the desktop web, mobile devices (and in
see more niche devices being released and notably the
particular the smartphone) rarely leave their owner’s
rapid rise of the phablet, which will have implications for
side.
tablet sales this Christmas. July also saw the release
Marketers therefore have the opportunity to use
location, time of day and device type information in
order to optimize targeted messaging and offers on
their sites. The recent Netbiscuits People’s Web Report
showed that owners of different branded devices
behave differently both on the mobile web and in terms
of how much they are likely to spend. Apple users, for
instance, are bigger spenders than Samsung users.
Would this impact the products you select for your
banner ad displays? Data from Netbiscuits Mobile
of the LG G Watch, with the Moto 360 following in
September. There have been the first rumours of a
smartwatch with its own SIM card,1 while the Will.i.am
Puls wristband is set to come with 3G connectivity.2
This quarter therefore marks the beginning of some
very fundamental changes that will take place and that
will shape 2015. We are seeing the tip of the iceberg
in terms of ‘IT of everything,’ with wearables, auto-pilot
cars, smart thermostats and other smart objects all
waiting in the wings.
Analytics shows that it is more important than ever to
All of these smart objects will create more personal
recognize how a customer is using a device in any
digital content that consumers will demand is controlled
given context. This quarter we consider three major
through their ‘Personal Cloud,’ regardless of who is
trends that directly influence customer behaviour and
inventing the software or device. At this point, the
affect the way in which customers interact:
ecosystem actually becomes more important than the
• New devices and emerging categories of device
• Emerging operating systems and
the battle of the software
• The rise of wearable technology
device itself, and innovation at the software level will
need to bridge the device and the cloud seamlessly.
While there are many changes to come, marketers will
need to think carefully about arming themselves with
the information needed to enable them to take the right
decisions and make the right investment choices.
1 http://www.stuff.tv/gear-2/samsung-gear-solo-watchphone-be-revealed-next-month/news
2 http://www.marketingmagazine.co.uk/article/1317431/william-launches-puls-smart-wristband-3g
© Netbiscuits 2014
1. Device variety a challenge but huge opportunity
The average number of unique mobile devices hitting
websites on a daily basis has been increasing steadily.
During May 2014, there were an average of just
under 4,000 different devices per day. By October,
this had reached almost 5,000, and the growth rate
is accelerating. It means that during 2015, around
two-thirds more unique mobile hardware devices will
be accessing an average website per day compared
Q3 device releases focus on specific audiences
• In September, Nokia introduced the Nokia Lumia
735, dubbed the selfie phone with a very high
spec forward facing camera. Also in September,
Average number of unique mobile devices per day in each month
5000
BlackBerry introduced the Passport, 4.5 inch screen
phone with a square resolution of 1440 x 1440 pixels.
4000
• This quarter we were introduced to the
to 2014. Much of this change is due to the increased
Grandroid phone for the silver surfer: the
number of smartphones being used in the base.
Amplicomms Power Tel M9000, with large
3000
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
icons and text, simplified menus, an SOS
button for help and extra loud volume ringer.
Most used smartphones
• By the end of October, the Apple iPhone 5S
was the world’s most used device at 13%.
• This is down from its peak of 15% during
September and coincides with the iPhone
• A brand new Russian company announced its
smartphone aimed at Muslims in Russia. BQ-Mobile
claims the device makes smartphones more
accessible to a wider audience with its integrated
religious-based features and functionalities.3
6 entering the top 25 device list.
• The iPhone 6 reached 6% share of Apple
smartphone traffic by the end of October. It has
already overtaken iPhone 5C traffic. The iPhone
4S, which offers considerably slower download
speeds than the 5S, remains in the Top 5 devices.
• The Top 5 devices represented 39% of total
traffic, compared to 46% 6 months ago.
Conclusions
The rise of more varied devices presents both
a problem and an opportunity for marketers.
It means that more care is needed to identify
bounce and conversion differences by device
type as experiences vary tremendously. However,
it increases significantly the level of insight into
customer segments as more users buy devices for
more specific purposes or for particular reasons.
Share of web traffic, by device, smartphones, October 2014
Apple iPhone 5S
Apple iPhone 5
Samsung Galaxy S4
Samsung Galaxy S III
Apple iPhone 4S
Samsung Galaxy S4 Mini
Samsung Galaxy S5
Samsung Galaxy S III Mini
Apple iPhone 4
Samsung Galaxy S II
Apple iPhone 6
Apple iPhone 5C
HTC One
Samsung Galaxy Note 3
Nokia Lumia 920
Nokia Lumia 520
Samsung Galaxy Note II
Nokia Lumia 925
Motorola Moto G
LG Nexus 5
Sony Xperia Z
Nokia Lumia 820
HTC One M8
HTC One Mini
Samsung Galaxy SIII Mini
3.5%
3.3%
4.5
%
10.1%
5.9%
5.7%
12.7%
2.8%
2.8%
1.6
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
2.4%
2.1%
%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
3 http://rt.com/news/200171-muslim-phone-russia-sale/
© Netbiscuits 2014
2. Phablets double share of smartphone traffic in 6 months
Smartphones with screens over 5 and up to 7 inches
• Users are willing to carry and use larger
- ‘phablets’ - have doubled their overall share within
devices if there is a use case for doing
smartphone traffic in the last six months. The phablet
so, such as surfing the mobile web.
category represented 7% of traffic at the end of April
2014, rising to 14% by the end of October. The leading
region for phablets is emerging Asia, where over onefifth of traffic comes from these large smartphones.
Proportion of smartphone traffic, phablets versus other smartphones and forecasts from November
• The uptake of phablets has therefore been greatest
in markets where the device is being used as
a primary access point for the internet. This is
especially true in Asia, as revealed by a recent
Smartphone
Phablet
100
%
80%
Google survey and is reflected in Netbiscuits traffic.5
Big phones becoming the new norm
• By April next year, phablets will represent
almost one quarter of total web traffic.
• Largest phablet traffic shares are found
in South Korea (49%), China (25%), India
(23%), Indonesia (22%), Saudi Arabia (22%)
and the United Arab Emirates (21%).
• Apple’s iPhone 6 Plus comes at just the
right time to capitalize on the trend. The
success of the larger device has taken many
As more people use a phablet to double up as their
iPhone traffic by the end of October.
smartphone and mobile web device, context will
been largest in Western Europe, where the
market is catching up with the larger screen
trend. The greatest growth was in the UK,
where the segment grew proportionally by
81%, to reach 16% of UK smartphone traffic.
• The emergence of the phablet category underlines
the phone’s status as a mobile web and app
device more than a traditional calling device.
40%
20%
0%
Conclusions
vendors by surprise. 4 It reached 2% of all
• Growth rates for the phablet category have
60%
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
Proportion of phablet traffic, by region, October 2014
be more important than ever in order to determine
whether a tablet or a phone experience is required.
The emergence of this segment will blur tablet
and smartphone categories. For marketers, it will
therefore have an impact on expected bounce
rates, conversions and engagement. Location
and bandwidth considerations will become
extremely important. Meanwhile, the rise of the
phablet will have a major impact on what we find
in people’s Christmas stockings this year.
20.5%
Asia (emerging)
19.3%
Asia (established)
17.0%
North America
14.1%
Western Europe
13.6%
Middle East and Northern Africa
12.7%
Eastern Europe
6.8%
Central and South America
Sub Saharan Africa
4.3
%
4 http://www.gsmarena.com/iphone_6_sales_plateau_in_the_uk_iphone_6_plus_going_strong-news-10112.php
5 http://www.consumerbarometer.com/en/insights/?countryCode=CN
© Netbiscuits 2014
3. Android tablets a Christmas stocking filler
Another phenomenon that has been taking shape over
• We predict that Android will overtake iOS as the
the last six months is the steady rise in Android traffic
leading operating system in the base of tablets by
share amongst tablet devices. Six months ago, Android
end of March 2015, when it will reach 51% of the base.
accounted for 32% of tablet traffic on the Netbiscuits
Web Analytics platform. This grew to 38% by the end
of October. Tablet sales for Android are being driven
by high volume, low cost devices.6 It means that
Android’s share of tablet traffic will continue to grow,
with a sharper upturn anticipated following Christmas.
in 89 of 219 countries and territories tracked,
including many in emerging Asia (such as Thailand
and Malaysia) and Latin America. Its share of tablet
traffic was biggest in emerging Asia and in Central
20%
Conclusions
with its budget Hudl tablet and is set for more of the
continues to erode iOS share of tablet traffic.
same with the Hudl 2 this Christmas. The rise of low
a tougher environment for all tablet vendors.
• Most sales momentum in the market will
come from entry level Android devices, so
the volume of traffic from Android tablets will
grow more rapidly in 2015 than we have seen
previously. Similar to smartphones, vendors
such as Pinig in India are developing niche tablet
devices, including tablets aimed specifically at
children, executives, seniors and women.7
50%
30%
reflected by trends in the base, where Android
impact sales of tablets this Christmas. It will be
Other OS
70%
In the United States, Android accounts for 39%.
The UK supermarket chain Tesco had great success
position as a primary internet access device will
Android
60%
40%
tablets for quite some time. This is being
• The growth trajectory of the phablet and its
iOS
80%
and South America, at 59% and 49% respectively.
Entry level tablets driver of market growth
• Android tablets have been outselling iOS
Proportion of traffic, by operating system, tablets and regional split for October 2014
• Android is already over 50% of total tablet traffic
cost Android devices means that delivering a consistent
experience becomes tougher for marketers. Android
devices have a far greater range of maximum and
minimum specifications and this will have an impact
on users’ experiences of the mobile web as they
attempt to use the low cost devices as a platform for
connecting with brands. It will be increasingly vital to
know how device specifications are impacting bounce
rates and conversions in order to determine the right
level of experience for specific Android devices.
10%
0%
Apr 14
May 14
Jun 14
Jul 14
Aug 14
Sep 14
Oct 14
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Mar 15
Asia-Pacific (emerging)
Asia-Pacific (mature)
Eastern Europe
Middle East and Northern Africa
North America
South and Central America
Sub-Saharan Africa
Western Europe
Global
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
6 http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/android-edging-ios-global-tablet-market/
7 http://www.pinig.com/
© Netbiscuits 2014
4. Vendors look to new market segments
As tablet sales growth is set to be disappointing, and
while competition in the smartphone space intensifies,
vendors are looking to other segments in order to
drive revenues. New technology sectors such as
smart watches are receiving firm R&D commitment
through increased spending.8 This brings the question
about the software driving these experiences firmly
Surfing the web on a smart watch?
• Smart watch browser applications
iOS split by version, proportion of total Apple traffic
are available from Google Play.
iOS 5 and lower
• 37% of consumers would enjoy surfing
websites using a smart watch.9
• The mobile web will become important on smart
back into focus. Overall, Android reached 60% of total
watches. For instance, while multi-tasking,
mobile web traffic for the Q3 2014 timeframe, up from
information can be read from a website while a user
57% in Q2 2014. Windows grew to just under 5%.
is on a phone call. As such, people will want larger
screens, as witnessed in the smartphone space.
100
iOS 6
iOS 7
iOS 8
%
80%
60%
40%
Smart watches will develop into smart wristbands.
iPhone 6 and 6 Plus prove to be hits but
overall iOS 8 adoption is lagging
• iOS 8 reached 51% of total iOS traffic over 6 weeks
20%
Conclusions
from September 17 but growth is already flattening.
Marketers will need to watch this segment with
It is expected that an iOS 8 upgrade will be required
care. It could grow extremely rapidly, especially as
to use Apple Watch, giving users of older devices
the Apple Watch is expected next year. It will once
reason to upgrade both hardware and software.
again have major implications for how consumers
• Most smart watches currently available require
Android 4.3 or higher for pairing. Currently, 53% of
Android users are using version 4.3 or higher.
• Android 4.4 is the world’s most used version
0%
17 Sep
24 Sep
1 Oct
8 Oct
29 Oct
7%
see the return of the micro screen and brands
11
will need to think carefully about navigation and
%
Android 4.4
interaction methods on a micro screen website.
Android 4.1
12
42
%
%
Android 4.2
Android 4.3
• The second most popular Android
Android 2.3
version is Android 4.1. There are still 7%
of Android users using version 2.3.
22 Oct
Android split by major version, proportion of total Android traffic, October 2014.
wish to interact with brands. Longer term, it will
of Android at 42% of total traffic.
15 Oct
20%
8 http://globenewswire.com/news-release/2014/11/04/679430/10106159/en/Global-SmartwatchesMarket-Segment-Forecasts-up-to-2020-Research-Reports-TransparencyMarketResearch.html
9 http://www.netbiscuits.com/resources/netbiscuits-reports/the-peoples-web-report-2014/
© Netbiscuits 2014
5. Market Summaries, by region
Chinese vendors go international
Vendors have been attacking their domestic markets
for some time. We have seen the rise of Xiaomi
within the Chinese base. We have watched the
growth of Micromax in India. We have also witnessed
some success, albeit on a much smaller scale, for
are fighting back. Local consumers are increasingly
International expansion will not be easy. There will
using Chinese devices. During Q3, we saw the biggest
be intense price pressure. In India, for instance, local
quarter-on-quarter jump in traffic share for Xiaomi,
vendor, Intex, has joined forces with Mozilla to launch
while Oppo, Vivo, Huawei, XiaoCai, Lenovo and Coolpad
a Firefox phone that is billed as India’s cheapest.13 In
all gained share between January and September,
Indonesia, emerging Chinese vendors have nudged
to the cost of Samsung, Nokia and BlackBerry.
their share of total mobile traffic only slightly upwards.
Wiko in France and bq in Spain. Now, these national
These domestic vendors are gaining confidence, which
vendors are looking beyond their local market and are
means that China will not be their only market focus.
increasingly looking to establish larger customer bases
Announcements of overseas expansion was a key
overseas. They are competing against established
theme for Q3 2014. Vivo announced that they have
export experts, such as Apple and Samsung.
entered the “era of internationalization.”11 They wish to
What will the future mobile landscape look like?
target India, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Xiaomi
is laying down plans to tackle Malaysia, Indonesia, the
China and emerging vendors
China is more open to using American brands than vice
versa. Apple has been making steady gains throughout
the year, growing from 13% of traffic in China in January
to 18% by the end of Q3 2014, clearly benefitting from
the deal struck with China Mobile. This deal gives
it access to a potential 760 million subscribers.10
However, there is a backlash and Chinese brands
Here, the biggest leap in traffic came from local vendor,
Smartfren. Although Smartfren remains small within
the base, the trend is significant: it almost doubled its
share of traffic between Q2 and Q3 2014. The same
story is repeated elsewhere. In Bangladesh, it was most
notably Symphony; in Thailand the biggest quarterly
gain in mobile web traffic share came from I-Mobile.
Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand. For Oppo, Malaysia
Meanwhile, Indian vendor Micromax appears in
and Indonesia are on their target list. Aside from
use in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
Huawei which has a broad pan-Asia presence, Oppo
Russian operations started this year and the vendor
is the most widespread of these emerging vendors
sees Russia as its gateway to Eastern Europe.14
according to Netbiscuits Mobile Analytics. Already 10%
We will track the progress of the emerging vendors
of its traffic comes from outside China. It is not just
as they continue to enter new territories.
United States
In the United States, Apple has marginally grown
its share of traffic, while Samsung has marginally
declined. However, overall, the leading two vendors
have solidified their position at the top throughout the
year. Those losing share include BlackBerry, HTC and
most notably Huawei. While the Huawei brand has
been battered in the United States in other technology
areas, Netbiscuits Mobile Analytics reveals that even
smartphone users have been moving to alternative
brands. Huawei is hoping to achieve more success
by releasing high end phones in the United States.15
Japanese vendors remain insignificant within US traffic,
although Sony is beginning to improve its position.
the emerging Asia region that it is targeting. In August,
it was reported that it would be one of the first of the
emerging brands to establish a presence in Australia.12
10 http://www.cnbc.com/id/101336809#.
11 http://www.vivo.com.cn/news/48
12 http://www.macworld.co.uk/news/newswire/oppo-rtunistic-china-smartphone-heavyweight-set-for-australian-launch-3539268/
13 http://www.straitstimes.com/news/asia/south-asia/story/maker-41-smartphone-hails-new-era-india-20140827
14 http://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/indian-phone-makers-look-to-penetrate-russia-114071801086_1.html
15 http://www.fiercewireless.com/story/huawei-sees-62-bump-first-half-smartphone-sales-commits-80m-shipments-2014/2014-07-29
© Netbiscuits 2014
Russia
In Russia, the situation is better for Sony. It has grown
its share of Russian traffic from 4.4% in Q1 to 5.6%
in Q2 and 6.0% in the latest quarter. Russia remains
a strong Apple market, with over 40% of traffic
from Apple smartphones, although both Apple and
Samsung have seen their share of traffic declining.
Huawei and ZTE also made gains in the region but
they have some ground to cover to catch up with
Sony. They are likely to be able to do this by focusing
on the low end market, especially in markets such as
South Africa, where BlackBerry still accounts for one
quarter of traffic. Meanwhile Sony will entice consumers
in markets such as the United Arab Emirates.
Latin America
In Latin America, both Apple and Samsung have seen
their share of traffic eroding during the course of
2014. Picking up share are Chinese vendors Alcatel
and Huawei as well as Motorola, which is in the
process of being bought by Chinese vendor Lenovo,
who has already announced that smartphones
Russia is a bright spot for Windows Phone devices,
There are no European vendors vying for a global
are out-shipping PCs. Motorola’s share of traffic
which has helped Nokia to also increase its share
position. Despite smartphones contributing to one of
in Central and South America reached a peak of
of traffic throughout 2014. While Chinese and Indian
the biggest revolutions in habits and daily behavior,
10.4% in Q3, up from 7.4% earlier in the year.
vendors have touted Russia as export markets, this
there has been little innovation from Europe. Europe
has so far proved difficult to achieve in practice.
is sitting in the mobile passenger seat, unable to
compete with global mobile powerhouses. Fortunately,
there has been some innovation as smartphone
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Japanese vendors may have struggled at a global
level, however in EMEA, Sony captures more share of
traffic than in any other large regional territory in the
world. For the first time in Q3 2014, its share of traffic
exceeded 5% of total traffic in Western Europe, where
it benefitted from the demise of BlackBerry and most
notably Nokia. Sony has grown its share of traffic in
most major European markets, including the UK, Spain,
Germany and France. Similarly in the Middle East, Sony
is filling the gap being left by BlackBerry and Nokia. Its
greatest gain in mobile web traffic share was registered
vendors such as Wiki and bq start registering traffic.
Often, in cases where Europe cannot compete on
a like-for-like manufacturing basis, vendors look to
extreme differentiation. For instance, the Fairphone,
which appeals to the morally conscious consumer.
Or luxury phones, such as the British-made Vertu
handsets. These products remain niche. It is Wiko
that currently looks best placed for international
expansion. The French vendor plans to launch in the
UK this year, followed by parts of Africa (such as the
Ivory Coast and Senegal), the Middle East and also
Asian countries such as Vietnam and Thailand.16
in the United Arab Emirates, followed by Saudi Arabia.
is Chinese investment in emerging markets that is
paying off in terms of establishing new bases of users.
It is the Chinese vendors that have the best chance
of disrupting the status quo. While this keeps Asian
vendors at the top of the pile in terms of hardware,
the best export in terms of global coverage comes
from the United States in the form of Google Android.
This means that future Asia vendors are still tied to
Google in the same way that Samsung has been in
the past. Asia is still unable to deliver on all fronts.
Samsung is trying to use the ‘Internet of Things’
to promote its own Tizen software, but throughout
Who’s best placed
In terms of exports, Samsung remains the undisputed
leader within Netbiscuits mobile web traffic. It captures
45% of total traffic, compared to Apple’s 35%, and
it enjoys much larger market shares in emerging
territories compared to Apple. Meanwhile its domestic
rival, LG, is the fourth largest vendor on the Netbiscuits
platform, behind Apple and HTC. South Korea has
been therefore the powerhouse of smartphone
innovation. Its vendors have understood best the
local needs and requirements for export markets.
However, we saw users migrating away from Samsung
more rapidly than from any other vendor. The other
noteworthy South Korean counterpart, Pantech, is
bankrupt. While we shouldn’t write off Japan yet, it
the quarter, this has been continuously rebuffed.
The importance of being able to control the full software
and hardware offering will draw up the next battle
lines. China is aware of this. The Chinese Academy of
Engineering has drawn up plans to oust Microsoft, Apple
and Android with its own operating system software.
It sees this as key to success although many experts
remain skeptical about its chances. The desktop
version was due for release in October, along with its
own app store (independent of western companies)
including a version for smartphones and tablets due
in the next three to five years.17 On the one hand, past
attempts at similar projects have failed. On the other,
the ability of China to leverage its domestic strength to
drive through change should never be underestimated,
even if it takes longer to achieve than anticipated.
16 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/04eb8800-f480-11e3-a143-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3BbP3tN7a
17 http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/26/china-microsoft-apple-android-state-software
© Netbiscuits 2014
6. Getting to grips with the data
The changing nature of devices, emerging segments
Marketers therefore need to consider new methods
and new technology trends underline the extent
in order to ensure that they get the experience right
to which consumers are wanting more immersive
the first time and every time that a device requests
and continuous interactions with the mobile web.
information from their site or a customer wishes
This is creating a wealth of valuable data for
marketers to better understand their customers,
in particular the types of experiences that
specific groups of customers will react better to
and what their preferences are likely to be.
to interact. This can be done by skillfully using
the clues that users are leaving. It involves using
multiple sources of information to build profiles of
customers. In particular it involves gleaning data
from the one thing that is with a consumer from
dawn until dusk, namely their mobile device. Why is
We already saw in our recent People’s Web report
it so important? We think that Coca-Cola’s Michael
that the devices that people choose can reveal much
Conner sums it up nicely: “Always remember: Without
about a customer. Apple users are most likely to
data, you’re just another person with an opinion.18
share experiences on social media, Samsung users
are the most concerned about mobile web security.
We also found in the People’s Web Report that an
increasing number of mobile web users are likely to
delete tracking cookies and web history, making it
harder for the marketer to track by traditional methods.
18 http://www.eweek.com/enterprise-apps/slideshows/how-splunk-aims-to-tame-flood-of-internet-of-things-data.html
© Netbiscuits 2014
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