1. No category

May 2015
How California’s Drought Exacerbates
the Terrorism Threat
Commentary # 2015-03
Scott Somers, Ph.D.
Senior Fellow
GW Center for Cyber & Homeland Security
HowCalifornia’sDroughtExacerbatestheTerrorismThreat
ScottSomers,Ph.D.
TerroristorganizationsincludingISIS,Hezbollah,andal‐Qa’idahaveopenly
promulgatedastrategyofecologicaljihad.Incontrasttoothermethodsemployed
byterrorists,environmentaltactics,suchascontaminatingwatersuppliesor
startingfires,canbequicklyplanned,requirelittletechnicalexpertisetoexecute,
andhavelowerriskofdetection.Watershortagesduetodroughtincrease
vulnerabilitytotheseterrormethodswithsignificantconsequencesforpeople,
infrastructure,andtheeconomy.
CaliforniaisonthevergeofanepicdroughtandmanywesternStatesarenotfar
behind.Nearly60percentofthestateisunderextremedroughtconditions.The
ColoradoRiverBasin,whichsupplieswaterto40millionpeopleinsevenstates,has
lostabout65cubickilometersoffreshwateroverthepastnineyears.Thekeywater
reservoirsofLakePowellandLakeMeadareat45and41percentcapacity,
respectively.HydrologistswarnthatCaliforniacouldrunoutofwaterwithinayear
and17ruralcommunitiesareatriskofconsumingtheirwatersupplywithin60
days.ThecrisispromptedGovernorJerryBrowntoorder400localwateragencies
toreduceconsumptionby25percentoverthecomingyear.
SeveredroughtinthewesternUnitedStatesraisesvulnerabilitytowater
terrorismasreservoirscontinuetodryup.Wateristhelifebloodofhumanand
economicwelfareand,asaconsequence,hasbeenexploitedasaweaponofwarfor
centuries.Asglobalwatersuppliesbecomeincreasinglyscarceduetodrought,
terroristgroupsaresteppingupattacksandmanipulatingsupplyasastrategic
tacticofcoercion.ISISgainedasignificantportionoftheirinfluenceintheMiddle
Eastthroughwaterterrorism.1Militantsseizedcontrolofkeyriversanddams
cuttingoffsupplytoChristian,Kurd,andShiiteminoritydistrictsandleveraging
watersupplyasameanstoextortmoneytofinancetheiroperations.
Waterterrorismhasalsoyieldedresultsforal‐ShabaabinSomalia.2AsUN‐backed
governmentforcessqueezedal‐Shabaabfightersoutofkeycities,militantsshifted
tacticsandattackedthewaterinfrastructuresupplyingnewlyliberatedareas.Itwas
ameansforal‐Shabaabtocontinueexertingcontrolevenwithoutanoccupying
presenceinacity.
Internationalterroristgroups,includingal‐Qa’ida,haveexpressedinterestin
contaminatingdrinkingwaterintheUnitedStates.AreportbytheNewJerseyOffice
Strozier,C.B.&Berkell,K.A.(2014,November29).HowclimatechangehelpedISIS[Weblogcomment].Retrievedfrom
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/charles‐b‐strozier/how‐climate‐change‐helped_b_5903170.html
2PRI(2014,August12).Al‐Shabaab’s‘waterterrorism’isyieldingresultsandtragedyinSomalia’scivilwar.Retrievedfrom
http://www.pri.org/stories/2014‐08‐08/how‐al‐shabaab‐using‐water‐tool‐terrorism
1
HowCalifornia’sDroughtExacerbatestheTerrorismThreat Page3
ofHomelandSecurityandPreparednessidentified26specificopen‐sourcethreats
ofwatercontaminationintheU.S.between1968and2008.Theirremotelocation,
lackofsecurity,andeasyaccessmakesreservoirsparticularlyattractivetargets;and
rawwatersourceshavebeenapointofaccessforpastattacks,thoughwithlimited
success.Mostanalystssuggestthat,sincewateritselfwoulddiluteanytoxinor
pathogen,thequantityofmaterialneededtosufficientlycontaminatesupplymakes
suchanattacktechnicallydifficult.But,asthelevelofwaterinreservoirscontinues
tofallduetodrought,thistacticbecomesincreasinglyfeasible.
DroughtinformationfromtheNationalResourcesDefenseCouncilwarnsthat
shrinkingwaterreserveshavealreadycreatedhealthrisksbyconcentrating
contaminantssuchasheavymetals,industrialchemicals,andpesticides.3Lowwater
levelsalsomakesuppliessusceptibletobiologicalcontaminationfromalgaeand
othermicroorganisms.Thereisahistoryofnaturallyoccurringmicrobiological
organismscontaminatingwatersourcesintheU.S.,whichdemonstratesthe
potentialconsequencesofdomesticwaterterrorismagainstdepletedlakesand
reservoirs.
The1992CryptosporidiumoutbreakinMilwaukeesickenedover400,000peoplein
afive‐countymetropolitanareaandresultedinover$96millionincombined
healthcarecostsandproductivitylosses.4Althoughrarelylethal,69deathswere
attributedtotheoutbreak,mostlyamongtheelderly,infants,andthosewith
immunodeficiencydisorders.A2013articleintheJournaloftheRoyalArmy
MedicalCorpsconfirmedthefeasibilityofCryptosporidiumtransmissionfor
terroristpurposesundercertainenvironmentalconditions.5Cryptosporidiumdoes
notneedtoinfiltratedrinkingwatertothreatenhealthortheeconomy.California’s
reservoirscontributetoan$85billionoutdoorrecreationindustry.Lowwater
levelsduetodroughtarealreadyimpactingtourismrevenue,andcontaminationof
recreationalwatersinfectingswimmerscouldfurtherundermineeco‐tourism.
Toxinsfromspeciesofcyanobacteriaareanotherpotentialagentinwaterterrorism.
Cyanobacteriaarenaturallyoccurringinlakes,ponds,andslow‐movingstreams.
Peoplebecomeexposedbydrinkingorimmersingincontaminatedwater.In2014,a
cyanobacteriaalgaebloomcontaminatedfreshwatersuppliesfornearlyhalf‐a‐
millionpeopleinnortheasternOhio.6Thenewstouchedoffarunonstoresfor
bottledwaterandbagsofice.Whilethecontaminationwastheresultofanatural
ecologicalevent,thewatercrisisneverthelesspromptedthemayorofToledoto
NationalResourceDefenseCouncil,Drought:Threatstowaterandfoodsecurity[Weblogcomment].Retrievedfrom
http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/drought.asp
4Coroso,P.S.,Kramer,M.H,Blair,K.A.,Addiss,D.G.Davis,J.P.,&Haddix,A.C.(2003).CostofIllnessinthe1993Waterborne
CryptosporidiumOutbreak,Milwaukee,Wisconsin.EIDJournal,9(4),Retrievedfrom
http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/9/4/02‐0417_article
5Hagen,R.M.,Loderstaedt,U.,&Frickmann,H.(2014).AnevaluationofthepotentialuseofCryptosporidiumspeciesasagents
fordeliberaterelease.JournaloftheRoyalArmyMedicalCorps,160(4):289‐294.doi:10.1136/jramc‐2013‐000186
6Jervis,R.(2014,August3).Ohio’s4thlargestcityhasnodrinkingwater.USAToday.Retrievedfrom
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/08/02/toledo‐ohio‐water/13505697/
3
HowCalifornia’sDroughtExacerbatestheTerrorismThreat Page4
compareittoaterroristattack.7TheOhiooutbreakdemonstratesthatawater
terrorismeventneednotproducemassivecasualtiestocausepanic,societal
disruptions,andevenoverreactiononthepartofgovernmentofficialsandthe
public.
Thedroughthasalsocreatedtinderboxconditionsincreasingthepotentialfor
aterroristtosetseverewildlandfiresnearpopulatedareasandcritical
infrastructure.Fireasatoolofwarfareiswelldocumented.Whilethereisnodirect
evidenceofaterroristgrouphavingemployedwildfireasaweapon,firehasbeen
promotedasasimpleandpotentiallyeffectivewaytoinflictfearandcause
considerabledamage.In2012,anissueofInspiremagazinesurfacedonjihadi
Internetforumsdetailinghowtoconstructan“emberbomb”totargetforested
areasoftheU.S.ThisspurredtheDHSOfficeofIntelligenceandAnalysisandeight
stateorlocalagenciestoissueajointreportraisingawarenessofterroristinterests
inutilizingwildfireasatacticagainsttheHomelandtocausecasualties,economic
damage,andresourcedepletion.8
TheLebanesemilitantgroup,Hezbollah,usedwildfireasamilitarystrategy–as
wellaseconomicandpsychologicalattack–duringits2006conflictwithIsrael.
MilitantsfiredKatyusharocketsignitingnumerousfiresintheNaftalimountain
range.Thewildfireswerepartofadiversionarytactictodrawresourcesawayfrom
battlesinsouthLebanon.Morethan10,000acreswereburnedcausing
considerabledamagetoforestsandgrazingfields.Fouryearslater,duringthe
MountCarmelFire,awaveofsuspiciousfiresstruckIsraelandtheWestBank.The
motivationfortheseattackswasnotdetermined,buttheycausedconfusionand
drewscarceresourcesawayfromfiresuppressionefforts.TheJewishNationalFund
estimatesthatitwilltake50yearstorestoretheforests.910
Onlyabout7percentofIsraelisforested,yetfirehasbeenusedasaneffective
terrortacticagainsttheIsraelipeople.Bycomparison,theCarltonComplexFirein
WashingtonStatein2014destroyed322homesandconsumed256,000acres,an
arealargerthanthe247,000acrescomprisingallIsraeliforests.In2012alone,
wildfiresburned9.3millionacresoflandintheU.S.,moreacreagethantheentire
StateofIsraelitself.TheNationalAssociationofStateForestersclaimsthatsome
72,000U.S.communitiesareexposedtowildfire.The2015WildfireHazardRisk
ReportbyCoreLogicestimatesthat1.1millionhomesfallintothehighestwildfire
riskcategorywithareconstructionvalueofmorethan$268billion.11
7Brush,M.(2014,August19).ToledoMayorcompareswatercrisistoaterroristattack.Retrievedfrom
http://michiganradio.org/post/toledo‐mayor‐compares‐water‐crisis‐terrorist‐attack
8U.S.DepartmentofHomelandSecurity.(2012,May31).TerroristInterestsinUsingFireAsaWeapon.Retrievedfrom
https://info.publicintelligence.net/DHS‐TerroristFireWeapon.pdf
9Bodner,J.(2007,January3).TherecoveryofNorthernIsraelthroughaforest’seyes.Retrievedfrom
https://secure2.convio.net/jnf/site/SPageServer/;jsessionid=64CC81C444F970947C217A63353047FA.app207a?pagename=
Recovery
10Bodner,J.(2010,June30).ForestfiresrageacrossIsrael.Retrievedfromhttp://www.jnf.org/about‐jnf/news/press‐
releases/2010/forest‐fires‐rage‐across.html
11Botts,H.,Jeffery,T.,McCabe,S.,Stueck,B.,&Suhr,L.(2015).WildfireHazardRiskReport:ResidentialWildfireExposure
EstimatesfortheWesternUnitedStates.Retrievedfromhttp://www.corelogic.com/research/wildfire‐risk‐report/2015‐
wildfire‐hazard‐risk‐report.pdf
HowCalifornia’sDroughtExacerbatestheTerrorismThreat Page5
TheexposureofU.S.communitiestowildfiremakespyro‐terrorismapotentially
potentweaponforeconomicwarfareandmassdestruction.Onemilitaryofficer
wroteinhis2005thesis:“Anopportunisticterroristcanunleashmultiplefires
creatingaconflagrationpotentiallyequaltoamulti‐megatonnuclearweapon.”12
WilliamScott,aformerNationalSecurityAgencyofficial,calledpyro‐terrorism“an
extremelyhigh‐leverageweaponofmasseffect.”13Armedwitharudimentary
understandingoffirebehavior,weather,andtopography,apyro‐terroristcanset
firesthatinflictsignificantdamage.
Dryvegetationfromthelackofrainisincreasingthefrequency,severity,and
damagecausedbywildfires.Thedroughtisalsodepletingnaturalwatersupplies
usedforfirefighting.InSanDiegoCounty,whichhasahistoryofseverewildfires,
BartlettLakeisdowntolessthan6percentcapacityfromits2006levelof96
percent.Sutherlandhasdroppedto8.4percentandMorenaisnearlydryat3.2
percent.14
Thenegativeeconomiceffectofwildfirehasoftenbeenunderestimated.Damage
assessmentstendtofocusonthedirectcostsoffiresuppressionandpropertyloss.
AstudybySanDiegoStateUniversityreassessedtheeconomicimpactofthe2003
SanDiegowildfiresandconcludedthefirecost$2billionmorethanoriginally
estimated.15Additionallossesincluded$365millioninlostbusiness,$10millionin
medicalcosts,$47millioninwatershedmitigation,and$147.3millionin
infrastructuredamage.Losteconomicactivitywasconservativelyestimatedat10
percentregionalgrossproductivity.Thiswasbasedonthedestructionof24
commercialbuildings,a$32.5milliondropintourism,and5,000affectedjobs.
Wildfirecanthreatencriticalinfrastructure,especiallytheelectricalgrid,causing
damagetopoles,transmissionlines,andgeneratingstations.Directflame
impingementisnotnecessarytodisruptpowersystems.Densesmokeand
particulatematterfromfirescanionizetheaircreatinganelectricalpathway
betweenlinestrippingcircuitsandthreateningwide‐scaleoutages.
Thethreattotheelectricalgridhasacascadingeffectonotherinfrastructure.On
September8,2011,atransmissionlinetrippedduetohightemperatures,startinga
chainofeventsthatcutpowertoportionsofArizona,California,andMexico.Allof
SanDiegolostpower.Theoutagesnarledtrafficduringrushhour;flightsandpublic
transportationweredisrupted;schoolsandbusinessesclosed;waterandsewage
pumpingstationslostpowerresultingincontaminatedbeachesandunsafedrinking
Baird,R.A.(2005).Pyro‐Terrorism–TheThreatofArsonInducedForestFiresasaFutureWeaponofMassDestruction.
Retrievedfromhttp://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a509220.pdf
13WashingtonExaminerEditorial.(2013,June17).ExaminerEditorial:Onlyyoucanpreventterroristsfromstartingforest
fires.Retrievedfromhttp://www.washingtonexaminer.com/only‐you‐can‐prevent‐terrorists‐from‐starting‐forest‐
fires/article/2532034
14ReservoirlevelsforSanDiegoCountyretrievedApril21,2015fromhttp://www.sdcwa.org/reservoirs
15Rahn,M.(2009).WildfireImpactAnalysis.Retrievedfrom
http://newscenter.sdsu.edu/sdsu_newscenter/images/rahn2009fireanalysis.pdf
12
HowCalifornia’sDroughtExacerbatestheTerrorismThreat Page6
water.TheNationalUniversitySystemInstituteforPolicyResearchconservatively
estimatedlossestothelocaleconomyof$97to$118millionasaresultofthe
blackout.16Whilenotcausedbyafire,thisincidentforetellspyro‐terrorism’s
potentialforlarge‐scalesocialdisruptionandeconomicdamage.
Sustainabilitypracticesandecosystemmanagementareintegraltoacohesive
strategytoprotectcriticalinfrastructureandkeyresources.TheU.S.haslong
recognizedtheneedtoprotectitswaterresourcesagainsttheterrorismthreat.But,
currentinitiativestendtofocus–somewhatmyopically–onbuilding“robust,
comprehensive,andfullycoordinatedsurveillanceandmonitoringsystems…”to
provideearlydetectionofagents.17Amoreholisticapproachtodomesticwater
securitywouldincludethefollowing:
1. Recognizetheconnectionbetweenthenaturalenvironmentandterrorism
vulnerabilityinhomelandsecuritystrategy.TheU.S.militaryrecognizesthat
globalcompetitionforfinitenaturalresourcesisanationalsecurityconcernand
hasembracedsustainabilityasavitalstrategicsecurityelementandmission
enabler.18Integratingsustainableprinciplesandpracticesintothenational
homelandsecuritystrategynotonlyprotectsvaluablenaturalresources;it
reducesthepotentialfortheenvironmenttobeexploitedasatoolofterror.
2. Facilitateinvestmentsinsmaller‐scale,distributedinfrastructuresystems.
Centralizedutilitieswithlarge,complexdistributionsystemsaremore
vulnerabletotargeteddisruptionswiththeconsequencesoffailurespread
acrossalargerpopulation.Theconceptofdistributedinfrastructurerefersto
technologiesinstalledattheneighborhoodorindividualsitescale.Distributed
powersystems–suchason‐sitephotovoltaicsormicro‐gridgeneration–not
onlyreducetheriskofwidespreadpowerfailures,butthecascadingeffectsand
economicdamagethatresults.Similarly,newsustainablewatertechnologiesare
emergingthatintegratedecentralizedsystemswithtraditional,centralized
conveyanceandtreatmentnetworks.Integratingprinciplesandtechnologiesof
distributedinfrastructuremightenhancetheEPAWaterSecurityInitiative.
3. Restoreecosystemsasameanstoreduceriskandprotectnatural
resources.Forestersandfireprotectionexpertsareincreasinglyrealizingthata
centuryofaggressivefederalfiresuppressionpolicyhasledto
uncharacteristicallydenseforests.Suchconditionsgeneratemoreintense
conflagrations,preventmorewaterfromreachingundergroundaquifers,and
reducethehealthoftheforests.Exploringtherelationshipbetweenhealthy
forestsandwatersupplythroughthelensofhomelandsecuritycouldhelp
bolsterburgeoningeffortstorestoreecosystems.
NationalUniversitySystemInstituteforPolicyResearch.(2011,September9).EconomicimpactofSeptember9thPower
Outage:Conservativelyestimatedat$97to$118Million.Retrievedfrom
http://www.nusinstitute.org/assets/resources/pageResources/PrelimReportSDBlackoutEconImpact.pdf
17HomelandSecurityPresidentialDirective9
18Hartman,J.,Butts,K.,&Bankus,B.(2012).SustainabilityandNationalSecurity.CarlisleBarracks,PA:USArmyWarCollege.
16
HowCalifornia’sDroughtExacerbatestheTerrorismThreat Page7
AbouttheAuthor
ScottSomersisaSeniorFellowwiththeGWCenterforCyberandHomeland
Security.HeservedtwotermsasDistrict6CouncilmemberandwasViceMayorin
Mesa,Arizona.HechairedtheNationalLeagueofCitiessteeringcommitteeon
PublicSafetyandCrimePrevention,whereheledthedevelopmentandadvocacyof
nationalmunicipalpolicyinvolvinghomelandsecurityanddomesticpreparedness.
Dr.Somersisactivelyinvolvedinnationaldomesticpreparednessefforts.Hehas
servedontheNationalHomelandSecurityConsortium,theSAFECOMExecutive
Committee,theFirstNetPublicSafetyAdvisoryCouncil,andtheNationalEMS
AdvisoryCouncil.HecurrentlyvolunteersontheAmericanRedCrossScientific
AdvisoryCouncil,PreparednessandDisasterHealthsub‐council,andisapublic
safetyissueadvisorforRepresentativeMattSalmon(AZ‐CD5).
Dr.SomersreceivedaPh.D.inpublicadministrationfromArizonaStateUniversity.
Hisworkfocusesontheorganizationalstructuresandprocessesthatleadto
resilienceinunstableoperationalenvironments.Severalofhishomelandsecurity‐
relatedrefereedjournalarticleshaveappearedinPublicAdministrationReview,the
JournalofContingenciesandCrisisManagement,andPublicWorksManagement
andPolicy.Papershehaswrittenonthehealthcaresystem’sresponsetoWMD
eventsarepublishedasbookchaptersintheHomelandSecurityHandbook(CRC
Press)and21stCenturyManagement(Sage).Dr.Somerslecturesregularlyandhas
workedwithinternationalorganizationsonpromotingcontinuityplanningamong
smalltomid‐sizedbusinessesforbetterglobalsupplychains.
Inadditiontohispoliticalandacademicbackground,Somershasnearly20yearsof
operationalexperiencewiththePhoenixFireDepartmentservingasahazardous
materialsspecialistforFEMAArizonaTaskForce1,respondingtodomesticnatural
disastersandnationalsecurityevents.
AbouttheGWCenterforCyberandHomelandSecurity
TheCenterforCyberandHomelandSecurity(CCHS)attheGeorgeWashington
Universityisanonpartisan“thinkanddo”tankwhosemissionsistocarryout
policy‐relevantresearchandanalysisonhomelandsecurity,counterterrorism,and
cybersecurityissues.Byconveningdomesticandinternationalpolicy‐makersand
practitionersatalllevelsofgovernment,theprivateandnon‐profitsectors,and
academia,CCHSdevelopsinnovativestrategiestoaddressandconfrontcurrentand
futurethreats.CCHSwasestablishedinearly2015andintegratestheactivitiesand
personneloftheHomelandSecurityPolicyInstitute(HSPI)andtheGW
CybersecurityInitiative.MoreinformationontheworkoftheCentercanbefound
onitswebsiteathttp://cchs.gwu.edu/.