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CEMA Business Barometer Survey Report May 2015 What is the CEMA Business Barometer? ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► A monthly survey within for the European agricultural machinery industry (started in 2008) Coverage of all major sectors – from tractors to municipal equipment Target group: 140 senior managers from 8 (CEMA) countries Implementation: online survey Questionnaire available in five languages Executed by VDMA for CEMA Subjects of the survey: ► current and future business situation ► situation of order intake ► development of turnover ► turnover expectation per country ► production plans ► employment plans ► special topics, e.g. delivery times Deadlines: starting ca. 5th each month, closure: ca. 12th 13 May 2015 Page 2 Contact: [email protected] Recession trends cover all European markets now. Executive summary of the May survey The sentiment of the European agricultural machinery industry remained more or less unchanged in the last survey compared to the slightly improved trends that we saw in April. After the strong decline in business over the past nine months, the level of orders and sales has reached a new base. Only a minority of the managers thinks that this base will become considerably lower during this recession phase. So the expectation meanwhile goes towards an overall “flat development”. On the other hand, an astonishing result in this survey was that the concrete market expectations by country have all fallen back again, contrary to the changed picture one month ago, so there is a kind of “zigzag development” over the past few months, which might be the expression of uncertainty. There is no single European market left now for which the industry expects a higher demand in the following short-term period. For Germany and France, expectations have slightly deteriorated so that now around 50% and more expect a further decline, although only to a limited extent. The reach of the orders on hand is 2.2 months currently. Since the start of this survey, only in 2010, this value was minor at this point of time. Most companies do have a visibility for their business that only reaches from one to two months of production time. The workforce in the companies has already been reduced, so that the speed of further reduction is lower now. Temporary workers are even hired by some companies in order to manage the high season business. 13 May 2015 Page 3 Contact: [email protected] Business Climate Index Development 2012-2015 CEMA Business Climate Index (CBI) 60 CBI Present Situation 40 Future Expectation 0 201201 201202 201203 201204 201205 201206 201207 201208 201209 201210 201211 201212 201301 201302 201303 201304 201305 201306 201307 201308 201309 201310 201311 201312 201401 201402 201403 201404 201405 201406 201407 201408 201409 201410 201411 201412 201501 201502 201503 201504 201505 20 -20 -26 -26 -40 -31 -60 Source: CEMA Business Barometer Index = sum of 1) evaluation of the current business situation and 2) turnover expectation, scale from -100 to +100 13 May 2015 Page 4 Contact: [email protected] Business Climate Illustration of Business Cycle 90 Boom Upswing Balance 2009 70 Expectation for the coming 6 months 2010 50 2011 2012 30 2013 2014 10 Jan-May 2015 -10 May 2015 -30 -50 -70 Downswing Recession -90 -90 -70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 Evaluation of current business Source: CEMA Business Barometer, each value as an average of the last two months 13 May 2015 Page 5 Contact: [email protected] 50 70 Balance 90 Business Climate Current Evaluation and Expectations Question: We consider our current business to be …. 100% 6% 6% Question: We expect our overall turnover within the next 6 months to.... 5% very unfavourable decrease 40% 80% 39% 43% 43% unfavourable 49% 42% 60% remain unchanged satisfying 39% 40% 35% 45% 36% good 34% 28% grow 20% very good 16% 16% 201504 201505 10% 22% 21% 24% 201503 201504 201505 0% 201503 Source: CEMA Business Barometer 13 May 2015 Page 6 Contact: [email protected] Employment Question: Our plans regarding the workforce Regular employees Temporary employees increase 6% increase 11% reduce 17% reduce 38% keep unchanged 77% Source: CEMA Business Barometer May 2015 13 May 2015 Page 7 Contact: [email protected] keep unchanged 51%
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