Download Report

China Sustainability Project
POLICY BRIEF SERIES
Behind the Numbers: The Chinese Vision of
Electrification
Chun Yu Jonathan Poon*
February 1, 2015
China has been making every effort over the
past decades to provide its people with better
access to electricity. Its latest electrification rate
of 99.7%, according to the World Bank,
outperforms many developing nations and is on
a par with the OECD average. Nevertheless, the
achievement is merely a measurement of
whether any electric cable is connected to a
home. The figure obscures the fact that
electricity supply to many rural Chinese
households is far from sufficient and stable. By
appraising pubic officials with the single topdown metric, China might fail to beef up rural
infrastructure development, thereby missing
the opportunity to stimulate economic activities
in its inland regions.
and household solar PV panels1. Installations
have notably proliferated since the Millennium,
The landscape of rural counties in regions such
as Xinjiang, Sichuan and Qinghai creates
difficulty in accomplishing the full electrification
mission. The sparse population along the hilly
terrains adds complexity to connect the entire
backcountry population to the national grid. As
a result, power generation for over 70% of the
rural counties depends on non-national grid
facilities, such as small-scale hydropower plants
thanks to the nationwide Township
Electrification Program launched by the
National Development and Reform Commission
during 2001-2005 in order to boost renewables
adoption for generation at local level.
Figure 1: Access to Electricity, 2012
Source: IEA
100
80
60
40
20
China
Brazil
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
India
Indonesia
Beneficiaries of the electrification initiative
include numerous Mo-suo villages, which are
surround the picturesque Lugu Lake spanning
across Sichuan and Yunnan. As the only
1
* Chun Yu Jonathan Poon is a Colu
Practice Candidate, 2016.
Rural
Urban
0
Peng, W., & Pan, J. (2006). Rural Electrification
in China: History and Institution. China & World
Economy,14(1), 71-84.
ia U i ersity’s Master of Pu li Ad i istratio i De elopment
www.cgsd.columbia.edu/china
China Sustainability Project
remaining matrilineal society in China, Mo-suo
call the main room, or the living room from city
d ellers’ perspe ti e, at their ho e the Zu-mu
Wu, hi h literally ea s Gra d a’s roo .
There you always find two set-ups: a poster-like
Preside t Mao’s portrait hi h re ai s fro
his era; and Huo-tang, a sacred fireplace in the
middle of the room where firewood is burnt all
year long. The fire gives warmth to the families
in winters. More importantly, it was the main
lighting source of the room before their homes
were powered by a 750kW hydropower plant
shared by several counties.
It is definitely an economic decision not to
connect these areas to the national production
grid albeit the proximity to resources. Western
China is a huge natural gas bank. For example,
the Dazhou gas field in Sichuan produces 740
million cubic feet of natural gas per day, which
is approximately 15% of the daily production at
Bar ett, o e of U“’s ost i porta t gas fields.
As a matter of fact, these regions are so
resource-rich that the hundred-billion megaconstruction of the West-to-East Gas Pipeline is
justified, in order to transmit the gas extracted
there to support the ever-increasing coastal
consumption.
While we acknowledge that it might be
economically rational to promote rural
electrification by off-grid facilities, we have to
ensure that the effort and resources spent on
establishing these hardware have been
effectively translated to an improved quality of
living among the rural population. This is exactly
the concern in China. Despite the effort in
providing universal access to electricity, annual
per-capita household electricity consumption in
rural China is around 200kWh, 8 times less than
that in large coastal cities2 and approximately
4% of the US average3.
Empirical research4 suggests that electrification
has not fully achieved its goal. Fire remains as a
compulsory lighting source after electrification.
In a typical Mo-suo household, the few lowwattage incandescent bulbs can only
complement the fire to dimly light the Zu-mu
Wu. In case of a blackout, villagers have been
trained to swiftly locate half-burnt candles and
light them at the Huo-tang. This is a common
problem in rural China, especially in the inland,
western provinces.
Looking at the figures, an average installed
capacity of 100-300W in a rural household,
which can be translated to a maximum annual
consumption of 876-2,628kWh, is too little to
create an impact on the living quality.
Meanwhile, increased household income and
the sudden availability of electricity induce rural
dwellers to acquire more home appliances such
as refrigerators and washing machines, The
over demand further stresses the system
loading, which cannot be easily scaled up with
the financial and technical limitations on the
municipality or county-level.
2
Zhao, C., Niu, S., & Zhang, X. (2011). Effects of
household energy consumption on environment
and its influence factors in rural and urban
areas. Energy Procedia, 14, 805-811.
3
World Energy Council (2010). Enerdata.
4
Shyu, C. (2012). Rural electrification program
with renewable energy sources: An analysis of
Chi a’s To ship Ele trifi atio Progra .
Energy Policy, 51, 842-853.
www.cgsd.columbia.edu/china
2
China Sustainability Project
Figure 2: Per-capita Electricity Consumption and Consumer Durables Ownership
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, World Bank
15000
80
60
10000
40
5000
20
0
0
China's Number of Air-conditioners Owned (Per 100 Rural Household)
China's Number of Refridgerators Owned (Per 100 Rural Household)
China's Per-capita Electricity Consumption (kWh)
US's Per-capita Electricity Consumption (kWh)
Current technologies restrict the use of solar
power in meeting the base load need. Even in
leading solar-power countries like Germany, PV
panels are limited to benefit from the peakshaving effect and supply the peak intraday
demand. This explains the instability and the
relatively low accountability of the
disconnected solar panels in rural China.
Compared to the available hours of electricity
supply of up to 12 hours per day claimed by the
operators, solar stations are reported to supply
power for an average of 3 hours per day.
Together with the poor maintenance of these
segregated power systems, the quantity and
stability of electricity supply remain as an issue
in rural China.
The successor of the Township Electrification
Program, the Village Electrification Program
aspires to bring electricity to 3.5 million rural
dwellers in China. The large-scale Program is
expected to fully electrify the countryside with
renewable sources by 2015. However, without
any affordable technological breakthrough nor
revolutionary changes in their operations,
small-scale, municipality-run and disconnected
stations shall continue to be systematically
inferior to grid supply in terms of scalability,
stability and maintenance. Therefore, one
should not be over optimistic about the impact
on the standard of living from the nation-wide
initiative. Being in common with any top-down
policy approaches, the Program is likely to end
up with another encouraging and promising
country-level figure without sustainable and
significant impacts brought to the people.
Reducing urban-rural disparity is clearly one of
the ai the es of Chi a’s th Five-year Plan.
The Beijing Government is struggling to achieve
this by two ways. The first approach, which the
policymakers have been fond of for decades, is
to reduce or remove gradually the obstacles for
urban migration. This straightforward approach
raises income directly with the cost of further
stretching the capacity and pollution of big
cities. The second path is to boost rural
productivity by empowering the indigenous
communities. This is considered more
sustainable and aligns better with the core
theme of strengthening domestic consumption
amidst the economic slowdown in the country.
In terms of energy, explicit targets regarding
environment and cleaner energy are laid out in
the Five-year Plan. Thus, it becomes natural for
the Chinese government to rely on renewable
www.cgsd.columbia.edu/china
3
China Sustainability Project
energy to elevate rural productivity.
Dependence on off-grid facilities might be an
optimal interim solution. However, if the
country is determined to bring a radical change
to the rural livelihood, serious political and
financial efforts are inevitable.
Particularly within the Chinese regime, topdown approaches are usually effective in
reaching high-level goals, but often overlook
the resilience and sustainability of the policy
impacts. The relevant government bodies
should ensure regular maintenance and
upgrade of the existing facilities. Knowledge
transfer can also be stimulated such that
upcoming commercially-feasible technologies
are introduced within a reasonable timeframe.
Even upon full electrification, rural energy
policies should be constantly reviewed.
It is still a long way to go, for Mo-suo villagers,
and for every rural dwellers in China.
www.cgsd.columbia.edu/china
4