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The Oceanographic Component of the World Class Tanker Safety Initiative:
Phase 1 –
North Coast of British Columbia
Charles Hannah, Patrick Cummins, Mike Foreman,
Jody Klymak, Youyu Lu, Diane Masson, Stephen Page, Pramod Thupaki, Svein Vagle, Di Wan, Yongsheng Wu, and many others
Enbridge – Northern Gateway Pipeline
Potential Shipping Routes
January 10, 2012 – National Energy Board Hearings start.
March 18, 2013 – World Class Tanker Safety System Kitimat
announced in Vancouver.
July 2013 – DFO learns about funding for oceanography –
Douglas Channel area
observations and modelling. 3 years for observations. December 19, 2013 – NEB Panel submits report recommending approval of Northern Gateway subject to 209 conditions.
June 17, 2014 – Cabinet approval of Northern Gateway project subject to 209 conditions. Oceanography
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Highway Map of British Columbia
320 km
Inside the red circle the 3 largest communities have populations of about 10,000 people each.
Areas
The box: 100,000 km^2
South Korea: 100,000 km^2 The circle: ~300,000 km^2
Nova Scotia: 55,000 km^2
New Brunswick: 72,000 km^2
Ontario: ~1,000,000 km^2
Quebec: ~1,500,000 km^2
Background
• Public concerns over increased resource development,
construction of pipelines and greater tanker traffic (especially
on the West Coast)
• Government’s Responsible Resource Development initiative
seeks to grow Canada’s oil and gas sector, increase exports
and streamline approval processes
• Stakeholder consultations took place in Summer 2012 to
determine elements of a world-class oil spill regime
• Transport Canada led an interdepartmental initiative to
develop a phased-in and multi-year strategy to strengthen the
marine prevention, preparedness and response regime
From a Transport Canada presentation
4
Stakeholder Views
There are regional differences in stakeholder perception of oil spill
readiness gaps:
• Arctic less developed, lower traffic levels but increasing activity
• Eastern Canada (82% of tanker traffic)
• Decades of good safety record; experience with oil tankers
 Current regime works well with established relationships and
systems
 Response capacity is adequate and high level of confidence in
the regime
•West Coast (18% of tanker traffic)
• Regime viewed as inadequate given potential volumes of tankers
and sensitive environment
• Social licence is needed to increase transport of oil and gas
• More regulation and government intervention needed and industry
willing to pay
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The World Class Prevention, Preparedness and Response for Oil Spills from Ships Initiative
Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC)
VLCC: 200,000 – 320,000 DWT Length: 350 m Breadth 60‐80 m Draft 20‐22 m
Tully: 66 m x 14.5 m x 4.5 m Discussion with CCG ‐ Navigation Risk
Maneuverability study by FORCE Technology describes simulations of tankers transiting the route http://www.ceaa.gc.ca/050/documents_staticpost/cearref_21799/2559/
exsummary_and_mainreport.pdf
Oceanography
10
CCGS Vector
Stephen Page (DFO/IOS)
DFO Science • Canadian Hydrographic Service
– Multibeam mapping and new charts
• COOGER (BIO) – Properties of diluted bitumen in sea water
– Assessment of countermeasures (cleanup techniques) • Marine Ecosystem and Aquaculture Division (PBS)
– Inventory of Marine Resources
– Mapping of Benthic Habitats
– Benthic Ecosystem, Research and Advice on Interactions with Ecosystem • Ocean Sciences Division (IOS) – Models, observations. – Today’s talk
January 2001 Masson and Fine. 2012. JGR Particle Release Area
The underlying model grid resolution is 3 km. Based on model simulations described in Masson, D., and I. Fine (2012), Modeling seasonal to interannual ocean variability of coastal British Columbia, J. Geophys. Res., 117, Particle Distributions after 15 days
Typical Summer
Typical Winter
10 year averages of distribution of particles over 15 days of drift. Particles released every 5 days for 10 years. Tracked for 15 days.
The map is the frequency of occurrence of a particle in a grid cell. Primary drift is to the North. Some drift West across the Strait and some to South.
Fine and Masson. Oil spill trajectory on the northern British Columbia Coast: results from a series of numerical simulations. Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrog. Ocean Sci. In review. The colour bar is a log scale
Dark red is 100%
Yellow is 1%
Dark blue is < 0.01% Oceanography Goals
• High resolution coastal ocean circulation model
– Coupled with operational ocean and atmosphere models for lateral and surface boundary conditions;
– Basis for oil spill model and real time currents to ships. • Observations – Current meters and drifters in Hecate Strait and Queen Charlotte Sound in late 1980s and early 1990s; – Current meters in the inlet system in the late 1970s;
– Needed to validate the ocean model;
– Need understand the circulation so can provide advice on emergency response planning.
• Data and knowledge – To help others with inventory of marine resources and habitat mapping;
– To help understand ecology;
– Emergency response planning.
Instrumented Moorings
Douglas Channel
July 2013 to 2014 and ongoing
July 2014 to 2015
July 2015 to 2016
Hecate Strait Kitimat
100
300
500
700
200
Mooring location
150
100
Distance from Kitimat (km)
50
0
Red – towards Kitimat
Blue ‐ towards ocean
Upper 50 m
Near bottom
Water depth
370 m
FOC1 Along Channel Velocity ‐ Subtidal
FOC 5 m velocity in relation to winds and river flow Kitimat River
FOC
EC Met Buoy
Di Wan (UVic)
FOC
FOC1 – along channel velocity Dec‐Feb
Mar‐May
Positive – towards Kitimat
Negative – towards ocean
Controlling Sill Height
Deep renewal in summer
Jun‐Aug
KSK location
Di Wan (UVic)
Sep‐Nov
FOC location
UVic Moving Vessel Profiler:
‐ CTD at up to 8 kts
‐ Vertical profiles to 200 m
Moving Vessel Profiler (0‐200 m)
Temperature – colour
Density –contour lines
Jody Klymak (UVic) Surface Circulation Trackers (sponge bobbers)
Global Coverage (orange area)
1
Vibration sensor in the SPOT Trace1 senses motion and it activates.
2
It acquires information from the GPS satellite constellation, (up to 24 Middle Earth Orbit Satellites). 3
Our experience tracking SPOTs; locally walking, driving, kayaking; Paulatuk ski‐doing; StnP – the open ocean; test launches Saanich Inlet & Juan de Fuca Strait; drifter studies in Douglas Channel, Cowichan Bay, Strait of Georgia, Hecate Strait.
To date 84 buoys deployed.
GPS Time / Date / Position is transmitted to Globalstar satellite constellation, (up to 32 Low Earth Orbit Satellites), and then to ground stations for distribution. Surface Circulation Tracker Evolution
Tom Juhász
Current version
Next generation
Drifters. April 2014
4,400 data points
Escape to Alaska
Drifters
July 2014
The arrows indicate launch locations
20 drifters 20,000 data points
Drifters July 2014
Hartley Bay
5 Drifters Launched
October Deployment in Douglas Channel area
Launch 5 drifters
Launch 5 drifters
20 drifters 60,000+ data points Launch 5 drifters
Launch 5 drifters
5 drifters
Deployed 5 Oct 2014 March 2015 deployment 10 drifters launched on 8 March 2015 Drifter statistics
based on 1 hour displacements Speed
Distance
Displacement Statistics
Data points: 53,309
Data points: 27,519
Data points: 40,008
Data points: 16,591
Improbable Pathways
Along a stream in a tidal flat.
Through a rock pile and then through it again.
The Modelling System Global Atmosphere;
Global Ocean (Operational) ?
CONCEPTS – Inter‐agency MOU to collaborate on development coupled environmental prediction models. Environment Canada,
DFO, DND
FVCOM North Coast BC
The Modelling System Global Atmosphere; Global Ocean Models
(Operational) Series of GEM
Local Area models
(various) FVCOM North Coast BC
250 m resolution GEM LAM for North Coast High-Resolution with GEM Model
10 km
2.5 km
250 m
1 km
Page 41 – February 25, 2015
GEM Near-Surface Winds: Example
250 m
Strong winds over high terrain and in the watersheds (channels)
Colors represent near-surface (10-m) wind speed
Stephane Belair and colleagues
Page 42 – February 25, 2015
The Modelling System Global Atmosphere; Global Ocean Models
(Operational) Series of GEM
Local Area models
(various) 250 m resolution GEM LAM for North Coast
500 m resolution hydrology model FVCOM North Coast BC
•
•
Environment Canada to provide a freshwater flux and temperature
modelling system to DFO (landward boundary conditions for FVCOM)
Requires a cascade of terrestrial environmental models
NWP model (GEM)
Atmospheric
forcings
Atmospheric forcings
SPS: SVS land
surface model,
glacier model, etc.
Overland flow,
interflow, baseflow
Streamflow,
stream width,
depth, etc.
WATROUTE
routing model
Freshwater
modelling
system
RBM
stream temperature
model
Simulated stream
temperature
FVCOM
Simulated freshwater
discharge
Sean Fleming and colleagues
•
•
•
•
Freshwater model domain determined
by FVCOM domain
Terrestrial environments draining into
Hecate Strait (~144,000 km2)
SPS/SVS runs on a single large
domain with 2.5 km grid scale
WATROUTE & RBM split into 6 subdomains: 15 arcsec (~500 m) grid for
Kitimat, others use lower 30 arcsec
resolution for computational efficiency
Nass
Skeena
Haida
Gwaii
Kitimat
Bella Coola
Owikeno
Example: WATROUTE/RBM grid
spacing & model elevations near Kitimat
Full freshwater flux &
temperature model
domain, with WATROUTE
& RBM sub-domains
The Modelling System Global Coupled Model
(Operational) Series of GEM
Local Area models
(various) 500 m resolution hydrology model CONCEPTS Regional into Pacific
Hi‐Resolution NE Pacific
250 m resolution GEM LAM for North Coast
FVCOM North Coast BC
Regional Ice‐Ocean Prediction System
• Couple RIPS to NEMO
– 3‐8km Arctic/N.Atl
configuration (CREG12)
• SAM2 ocean assimilation (SEEK) with 3DVar ice assimilation
• Expected experimental implementation of forecast system for March 2014
Extend Atlantic/Arctic grid into the North Pacific 1/12 deg North Pacific
Youyu Lu and colleagues Downscale to shelf at about 3 km resolution (1/36 deg)
The Government of Canada Modelling System ‐ CONCEPTS Global Coupled Model
(Operational) CONCEPTS Regional into Pacific Hi‐Resolution NE Pacific
Series of GEM
Local Area models
(various) 250 m resolution GEM LAM for North Coast
500 m resolution hydrology model Various Waves models
FVCOM North Coast BC
Oil Spill Model
Model Setup | Mesh
• Three‐dimensional hydrostatic FVCOM numerical model 118089 Nodes, 209890 Elements, 21 sigma levels
Pramod Thupaki
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Hartley Bay
To Kitimat
Gil Island
Tidal mixing parameter Log(h/U^3)
SST – uncalibrated LANDSAT image
Purple ‐ cold; Red ‐ warm
Temperature
Flow Direction
Salinity
• Surface flows plunging to 50 or 60 m depth over the sill.
• Results in substantial mixing etc. • Through the chain of mixing, nutrients, phytoplankton, etc., this should be a hot spot for biological production and we expect it to be important for whales . Salinity
The End
Thanks to
Rick Thomson
Tom Juhasz
Cindy Wright
Dave Spear
Lucius Perrault
Kenny Scozzafava
Robin Brown