US Foreign Policy Marian Majer Central European Policy Institute 17 March 2015 Origins of the US Foreign Policy Four traditions: •Traditional liberalism (T.Jefferson, F.D.Roosevelt, L.Johnson) •Traditional conservativism (D.Eisenhower, G.Bush) •Neoliberalism (H.Truman, J.Carter, B.Clinton) •Neoconservativism (R.Reagan, G.W.Bush) Origins of the US Foreign Policy • Monroe Doctrine (1823): further efforts by European nations to colonize land or interfere with states in North or South America would be viewed as acts of aggression, requiring U.S. intervention.....United States would neither interfere with existing European colonies nor meddle in the internal concerns of European countries. • Spanish‐American War (1898) – breakthrough in foreign policy – since then driven by national interests • Hamilton‐Roosevelt tradition – balancing of powers • Wilsonanism – spreading of idealism and effort to transform the world Origins of the US Foreign Policy Wilsonianism • Sense of uniqueness • Belief in American political system • Active approach to the international relations • Spreading of democracy Post-Cold War Foreign Policy – Strategic Documents • Defense Planning Guidance (1992) • National Security Strategy of the United States (1998) • National Security Strategy of the United States of America (2002) • National Security Strategy (2006) • National Strategy for Homeland Security (2007) • National Security Strategy (2010) • U.S. Strategy Toward Sub‐Saharan Africa (2012) • National Strategy for the Arctic Region (2013) • National Security Strategy (2015) Post-Cold War Foreign Policy - Baseline • Prevention against other powers to become global • Spreading of American values all over the world • Protection of allies • US prepared for local wars all over the world • US prepared to act on international theaters if needed AND DIFFERENCES Right for an (humanitarian) intervention ‐ Clinton Right for a regime change – Bush Jr. Russian Reset and Pivot to Asia – Obama Post-Cold War Foreign Policy – Main Drivers • Gulf War (1990‐1991) • GWOT (2001‐ present) • War in Afghanistan (2001‐2014) • War in Iraq (2003‐2011) Obama`s Speech: State of the Union 2015 Obama`s Speech: State of the Union 2015 • For the first time since 9/11, our combat mission in Afghanistan is over. • Six years ago, nearly 180,000 American troops served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, fewer than 15,000 remain. • On terrorism: We stand united with people around the world who have been targeted by terrorists ‐‐ from a school in Pakistan to the streets of Paris. We will continue to hunt down terrorists and dismantle their networks, and we reserve the right to act unilaterally....Instead of sending large ground forces overseas, we’re partnering with nations from South Asia to North Africa to deny safe haven to terrorists who threaten America. • On ISIS: Instead of getting dragged into another ground war in the Middle East (ISIS), we are leading a broad coalition, including Arab nations, to degrade and ultimately destroy this terrorist group....I call on this Congress to show the world that we are united in this mission by passing a resolution to authorize the use of force against ISIL. Obama`s Speech: State of the Union 2015 • On Russia: We’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small ‐‐ by opposing Russian aggression, and supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies.....Today, it is America that stands strong and united with our allies, while Russia is isolated with its economy in tatters. • On Cuba: we are ending a policy that was long past its expiration date.....this year, Congress should begin the work of ending the embargo. • On Iran: Our diplomacy is at work with respect to Iran, where, for the first time in a decade, we’ve halted the progress of its nuclear program and reduced its stockpile of nuclear material....There are no guarantees that negotiations will succeed, and I keep all options on the table to prevent a nuclear Iran. Obama`s Speech: State of the Union 2015 • On war: The American people expect us only to go to war as a last resort, and I intend to stay true to that wisdom. • On spreading of values: Making sure we match our power with diplomacy, and use force wisely. Building coalitions to meet new challenges and opportunities. Leading ‐‐ always ‐‐ with the example of our values. That’s what makes us exceptional. That’s what keeps us strong. National Security Strategy 2015 Foreword by President: •The question is never whether America should lead, but how we lead. •We are leading international coalitions to confront the acute challenges posed by aggression, terrorism, and disease. •America leads from a position of strength. But, this does not mean we can or should attempt to dictate the trajectory of all unfolding events around the world. National Security Strategy 2015 Top strategic risks to the US national interests: •Catastrophic attack on the U.S. homeland or critical infrastructure; •Threats or attacks against U.S. citizens abroad and US allies; •Global economic crisis or widespread economic slowdown; •Proliferation and/or use of weapons of mass destruction; •Severe global infectious disease outbreaks; •Climate change; •Major energy market disruptions; •Significant security consequences associated with weak or failing states (including mass atrocities, regional spillover, and transnational organized crime). National Security Strategy 2015 Goals towards international order: •Advance Our Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific •Strengthen Our Enduring Alliance with Europe •Seek Stability and Peace in the Middle East and North Africa •Invest in Africa’s Future •Deepen Economic and Security Cooperation in the Americas Tools of US foreign policy • Strategic culture • Active diplomacy • Development aid (USAID) • Economic power • Military deployments US Military Deployments • 150 countries all over the world • 160 000 personnel in active duty • Japan: 50 000 • Germany: 38 000 • South Korea: 28 500 • Kuwait: 11 000 • Afghanistan: 7 000 Military Budget • FY 2014 – 620 billion USD • Sequestration – consequence of the Budget Control Act (August 2011) • Automatic spending cuts in effect since January 2013 • In defence 2012‐2021: $454 billion from new discretionary appropriations for defense programs ‐ 2013: plan ‐ 54,6 billion USD; reality – 37,2 billion USD ‐ 2014: plan – 54,6 billion USD; reality – 34 billion USD QUESTIONS? Thank you for your attention