K-KALLIO The Changing International Order and Northeast Asia: In the Light of China’s Rise Jyrki Kallio Senior Research Fellow Thesis and outline • All NE Asians share the goal of 富国强兵. • China needs stability. • Problem is NE Asia’s inability to leave WW2 behind. • Russia’s destabilizing actions are a risk for NE Asia as well as Europe. • China’s foreign policy priorities. • Security situation in NE Asia. – Sino‐Japanese relations – Korean Peninsula • The Chinese Dream and “major‐power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics” K-KALLIO China’s priorities China’s priority #1 is economic growth 60 50 40 <1000 USD 30 1000-10.000 USD 20 10.000-100.000 USD 100.000 USD> 10 0 India '11 China '03 China '11 China '20 Europe '11 Data for India and Europe from Global Wealth Report 2011 K-KALLIO Rising instability domestically needs stability internationally 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 Mass incidents/day China is a part of the global economy China's Foreign Trade Others 21% EU 15% USA 15% Taiwan 7% S‐Korea 8% Hong Kong 10% Japan 15% China’s Share of Foreign Trade (selected partners) 21 20 ASEAN 9% 14 13 10 Taiwan Japan USA EU Russia 9 India K-KALLIO China’s military build‐up is moderate Military Expenditure GDP Share % SIPRI 2013 (selected countries) 5 4 Miltary Expenditure, billion USD SIPRI 2013 (selected countries) 3 2 S‐Korea 1 India 0 Japan Germany UK France Russia China USA 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 NE Asian security situation K-KALLIO Sino‐Japanese relations risk deterioration despite mutual interests • Mutual economic interests vs nationalism • Sovereignty, territorial integrity • Taiwan’s role? Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan The future of the Korean Peninsula remains uncertain • DPRK: from an ally to nuisance • ROK: strong economic partner • No Philosopher’s Stone in China, either K-KALLIO China’s new foreign policy The Chinese Dream • The great rejuvenation 復興 of the Chinese nation • Major‐power 大国 diplomacy with Chinese characteristics • The correct handling of justice 義 and benefits 利 K-KALLIO Concluding remarks Concerns for the future Wiiii 电影《铁道游击队》 K-KALLIO www.fiia.fi