Social determinants of risk perception Martin Birley BirleyHIA www.BirleyHIA.co.uk 2 Summary Risk perceptions can be biased Literature review 5 models Mitigation measures distorted New tools needed © BirleyHIA 3 Risk Assessment Matrix Integrated ESHIA Likelihood/Severity/Significance Expert group consensus Biased by risk perception? Severity rank Likelihood rank © BirleyHIA 4 Unstable risk perception Attenuation © BirleyHIA Amplification 5 Unstable risk perception Climate Chaos Attenuation © BirleyHIA Fracking Amplification 6 Models of risk perception Information Deficit Psychometric Cognitive Bias Social Amplification Cultural Worldviews BirleyHIA 7 New information does not always lead to convergence of risk perceptions Information deficit model It’s what we feel that counts © BirleyHIA 8 Feelings and images Project City sewer Fracking © BirleyHIA Images generating Negative Positive feelings feelings Dark smelly tunnels full of rats Poisoned wells climate change disruption Cleanliness waste removal flood prevention Cheap clean local energy Psychometric Voluntary risk takers Involuntary risk receivers © BirleyHIA See Slovic, Starr 10 Risk/benefit relationship “Econ man” Benefit Risk © BirleyHIA Slovic 2010 11 Inverse relationship Real people Benefit Risk © BirleyHIA 12 Two types of thinking Characteristics Affective Analytic © BirleyHIA Fast intuitive automatic emotional use heuristics Slow Deliberative effortful computational Example Anxiety about a risk based on gut reactions Judgement about a risk based on deliberation Kahneman (2011) “Thinking, fast and slow” 13 Cognitive biases Type Example Optimism Framing Confirmation Certainty Budget too low, timescale too short BirleyHIA Narrow scoping Choosing evidence that fits preconceptions Confusing risk with uncertainty Kahneman (2011) “Thinking, fast and slow” 14 Cultural worldview Status anxiety Information that challenges our group identity is a threat to status and is rejected “White Male Effect” © BirleyHIA Flynn et al 1994, Finucane et al 2000 15 Making money out of risk perception © BirleyHIA Attenuation Amplification Merchants of Doubt Merchants of Fear Climate change Acid rain Tobacco News media Security products Pills Conway and Oreskes 2010 Gardner 2009 16 Mitigation of perceived risks © BirleyHIA Attenuation Insufficient Amplification Excessive Climate change Smoking Particulates Fracking Terrorism Stranger danger 17 Conclusion Risk perception can bias Impact Assessment Understand, classify and respond to multiple stakeholders New tools needed to stabilize risk perceptions © BirleyHIA 18 End See paper for details (#121) and references Acknowledge Veronica Birley, Hilary Dreaves, Cathy Baldwin, 2 Anon reviewers © BirleyHIA