CONSUMER PROBLEM SURVEY REPORT Christopher Hydock, Ph.D. & Kurt A. Carlson, Ph.D. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On a monthly basis the Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research (GICR) asks consumers what problems they plan to solve by going to the market. The findings from this survey are released monthly via press releases and quarterly via the Consumer Problem Survey Report (CPS Report). The CPS is the only survey of its kind, focusing not on consumer behavior or sentiment, but on the problems that consumers plan to solve via the marketplace. The CPS tracks 267 common consumer problems, each of which belongs to one of nine categories (i.e., Attire, Communication, Finance, Home-Housing, Health, Personal Care, Social, Transportation, and Work-Life). By measuring and tracking the problems that cause consumers to enter the marketplace in search of solutions, the CPS provides entirely new insights into when and how consumers are likely to enter the market. Some of the key findings from the CPS: The CPS finds consumers’ reports of transportation problems predicted increase in car sales. Only 43% of the problems consumers experience are solved within 6 months. Of those who do solve their problem with a purchase, most do so within a month. Of those who experience a problem that does unsolved, 14% report the problem went away on its own, BUT, the main reasons problems go unsolved are time and monetary constraints (68%). Reviews from web sites are used to identify the right solution, but most solutions are bought in person at a store. Men are more likely than women to use online purchases to solve their problems, and they spend significantly more money than women when purchasing online. CPS problem data correlates with business revenues and Google Trends data, suggesting that consumer behavior mirrors what is captured in the survey. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 1 CONTENTS OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................................ 1 SURVEY RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 4 Problems Consumers Will Solve At Market ....................................................................... 4 Do Consumers Actually Solve the Problems They Plan to Solve at Market? .................... 5 Why Do Some Consumers Not Purchase a Solution as Planned? ..................................... 6 Where are Waldo’s Unsolved Problems? ........................................................................... 7 The Information that Leads to a Purchase.......................................................................... 8 Window Shopping ................................................................................................................ 9 Women are from Nordstrom Men are from Amazon ...................................................... 10 Matching CPS Data to Expenditure Data .......................................................................... 11 Breaking Down a Problem Category ................................................................................. 13 Validating the CPS .............................................................................................................. 15 CPS Methodology ............................................................................................................... 16 ABOUT THE GEORGETOWN INSTITUTE FOR CONSUMER RESEARCH ................................. 18 Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 2 OVERVIEW Unlike most consumer surveys, which tend to focus on buying habits, sentiment, or purchase intentions, the CPS focuses on the problems consumers plan to solve with market solutions. The survey focuses on consumer problems because of the critical role that problem recognition plays in determining when and how consumers enter the market to purchase solutions. Specifically, there are four stages in typical consumer choice: Problem Recognition, Information Search, Evaluation of the Alternatives, and Decision. At the point of Problem Recognition the consumer realizes that something needs to be done to resolve an issue. In effect, a switch is flipped that initiates the process for searching, evaluating, and eventual decision making in the marketplace. The CPS captures this first step in a way that has never been done before. The survey documents the problems consumers intend to solve, the sources in which they search for information, and initial purchases being considered. As a results, the CPS provides a wealth of insights about when and how consumers enter the market to solve their problems. The Problems Consumers Intend to Solve in the Market Certainly, consumers experience many problems in their lives that they do not plan to solve by going to the market. There are two main reasons for this. First, the problem cannot be solved by the market solutions (e.g., the problem of a void in one’s heart due to a lost family member). Second, they lack the resources (time, expertise, money) to use the market to solve the problem. While we acknowledge some problems fit this mold, we believe that for most problems at least a partial solution can be found in the market. As such, the survey on which this report is based is focused on the problems consumers plan to solve by going to the market. This qualifying condition ensures that our results will predict consumers’ actual purchase behaviors. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 3 SURVEY RESULTS Problems Consumers Will Solve At Market 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% Car Sales and Transportation Problems Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 New Car Sales (millions) Percentage of GUPI Caused by Transportation Problems One of the primary Proportion of Most Pressing Problems that components of the CPS is the Consumers Plan to Solve in the Market most pressing problem each Attire Finance 4% consumer in our survey plans 5% to solve. When we ask people Work and Life this question, we find that 21% Home and Housing as well as Home/Housing Work and Life problems 22% (followed by Personal Care and Personal Communication) are reported Care most frequently as the pressing 15% Transportation problems they plan to solve via 8% Health the market. Decomposing Communication Social 7% these categories reveals that 14% 4% the top specific problems are: home cleaning, auto repair, time management, storage/organization, and groceries. Further, we can see that transportation problems are inversely related to new car sales (http://www.edmunds.com/-industrycenter/data), suggesting that consumers who had pressing transportation problems in the fall of 2013 used new car purchases (in the spring of 2014) to solve these problems. 4 Do Consumers Actually Solve the Problems They Plan to Solve at Market? Follow-up Survey. After 6 months we followed up with CPS respondents and asked them about their attempts to solve their previously reported most pressing problem. Three quarters (75%) of the original sample provided contact information and one-third (33%) of these participants responded to the follow-up survey. Participants reported whether or not they had solved their problem. When consumers said they did not solve their problem, they reported why and updated information about their search efforts. In the event that participants had solved their problem, consumers indicated what they purchased, how much they spent, what information sources led them to their purchase, and the extent to which the purchase solved their problem. Forty two percent of consumers reported they 50% had solved their most pressing problem. Importantly, consumers who reported their 40% problem 6 months back were only slightly more 30% likely to have solved their problem than those 20% who had reported their problem the month 10% before. For example, of those who had 0% reported their problem 6 months ago, 43% had 1-2 Months 3-4 Months 5-6 Months found a solution. Of those who had reported their problem 1 month ago, 37% had found a solution. Solution Windows Key Finding: After recognition of a problem, the majority of solutions are purchased within a month. Approximately 38% of most pressing problems are solved within a month, but only 5% are solved within the next 1-5 months. Implication: It is critical that brands reach consumers shortly after problem recognition as the majority of consumers that purchase a solution do so relatively quickly. The Solution Window in which brands will have the most success introducing their product is relatively short. While limited, this point in a consumers’ dynamic life provides incredible opportunity. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 5 Why Do Some Consumers Not Purchase a Solution as Planned? Why did some consumers fail to solve their most-pressing problems? The most common reason was a lack of ability (i.e., insufficient time or money). Interestingly, consumers responses suggest that time is just as big of a factor as money in their inability to solve some problems. Those that lacked the time to look for a solution and those that lacked the time to buy a solution made up nearly a third of respondents that had not purchased a solution. Cannot Find Solution 18% Lack Time to Look 18% Not Yet Purchased Purchased 42% 58% Lack time to Buy 13% Problem Went Away 14% Money / Price 37% Key Finding: While 14% of problems are reported to go away on their own and 43% are solved, another 43% go unsolved due time and monetary constraints. Implication: While marketers may be restrained in reducing price so as to reduce barriers to consumers solving a problem, they can focus on making sure the right consumers are aware of their solution and that it is convenient to purchase. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 6 Where are Waldo’s Unsolved Problems? Of those problems consumers are planning to solve, which are most and least solvable? Analysis depicts a large range in the solvability of problems, for example, nearly 80% of problems in some sub-categories are solved, while only 10% of problems in others are solved. Most and Least Market Solvable Problems by Category 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% The data provide some very important insights into the market and consumers. First, the hygiene solution space is seemingly the most saturated with solutions (no pun intended). This makes sense as it is difficult to think of a hygiene problem for which it is difficult to conjure a market solution. On the other end of the spectrum, safety emerges as one of the least solvable problems, corroborating what many already know – it is very hard to eliminate feelings of insecurity. The single most unsolvable problem is reported as Local Public Transport. While not public in the traditional sense, Uber has recently made tremendous strides in this area. The CPS would suggest that this success is tied to the inability of consumers to solve local transport problems to date. In this vein, marketers Chan Kim and Renee Mauborgne described red ocean market space, areas where solutions are saturated, and blue ocean market space, areas without market competition. In red ocean space, competition is fierce and consumers have many options for solutions that will solve their problems. In blue ocean space there is little competition, consumers have difficulty solving their problems, even though they are willing to spend money to do so, perhaps because few options are offered. The chart above provides a list of the top red and blue ocean markets, based on the data collected in the CPS. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 7 Implication: While difficult, every unsolved problem is an opportunity for those offering solutions; accordingly, this list points to the categories where consumers are willing to spend money but are unable to do so. The Information that Leads to a Purchase What information actually leads consumers to their purchase? The two charts below juxtapose consumers’ originally reported sources of information for their solution search and the sources of information that ultimately led to purchase. While there is a great deal of overlap, reliance on review web sites is greatly under-anticipated. Further, consumers’ responses indicated that reviews are relied on more heavily than any other source of information when purchasing a solution. It is especially notable that any source was more widely utilized than general web searches given its ubiquitous nature. Expected Information Source Advertising 9% Brick and Mortar 14% Word of Mouth 15% Social Media 5% Review Web Site 11% Advertising 8% Brick and Mortar 10% General Web Search 23% Brand Web Site 8% Actual Information Search Web Market Place 15% General Web Search 21% Word of Mouth 13% Web Market Place 12% Social Media 5% Brand Web Site 5% Review Web Site 26% Key Finding: Reviews from web sites are most cited as the information that eventually leads to the purchase of a solution. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 8 Implication: Maintaining a brands’ online reputation is critical. Although marketers cannot directly alter reviews, some strategies may optimize their content. This includes making realistic claims in product promotions and enhancing consumers’ user experience by providing an enriched post purchase environment. Window Shopping A recent concern of many marketers and retailers is the trend for consumers to view products in store, but then go and purchase their product online to take advantage of lower prices. While this surely happens with some products and businesses, the survey responses collected here suggest that consumers conduct a disproportionate portion of their search online, only to purchase the majority of their goods in store. While this does not negate the overarching trend of more consumption moving online, it does suggest retail locations still hold some advantages over online outlets. Marketers and firms must leverage this information by appropriately advertising their products online and managing the online reputation of their brand, as well as their products. Further, they must develop a shopping experience that makes consumers want to shop around and explore the full-range of products rather than simply use retail locations as pick-up locations for products already vetted online. This may be accomplished through a number of approaches, including in-store offers and enhancing the in-store experience. Problem Search General Search Purchases Off Line 14% Off Line 45% Online 55% Online 86% Instore 66% Online 34% Key Finding: Online shopping may be on the rise, but currently consumers may conduct a significant amount of search online, only to ultimately make a purchase in store. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 9 Implication: While online shopping may be growing in popularity, these results suggest that in store shopping has significant advantages that will provide long lasting staying power. Women are from Nordstrom Men are from Amazon There has been significant consideration of the differing shopping habits of men and women. Traditionally women conduct the majority of 100 consumer shopping. Data from Nielsen (2010) 90 indicates women are responsible to the majority 80 70 of consumer shopping trips to all types of 60 50 retailers except convenience stores. Share of Shopping Trips http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/news/2011/in-u-s-men-are-shopping-morethan-ever-while-women-are-watching-more-tv.htm 40 30 20 10 0 Qualitative data collected has revealed that women are more into the shopping experience and men are concerned with the utility. Given this differentiation, it is intuitive that men are more likely to shop online, as has been revealed by a number of recent surveys. Corroborating this finding, CPS follow up data indicates that men do in fact have a tendency toward online Female Male shopping. Analysis of responses from consumers who ultimately made a purchase to solve their problem suggests that while both genders were equally likely to purchase a solution, (~40%) men were significantly more likely to do so online. Females Males Online 34% Instore 66% Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research Instore 55% Online 45% 10 Further, while men spent about 20% more on their instore purchases, they spent 100% more on their online purchases. Spending Online and In Store by Gender $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 $0 Online In Store Female Male Key Finding: Men and Women differ significantly in how they approach finding solutions for their problems. Men are more likely to shop online, and spend significantly more than women when doing so. Implication: These findings are critical because the reveal that gender differences in shopping preferences. Men want ease and utility while women are focused on the experience of shopping. Retail locations aimed toward men should attempt to provide utility to win back Male shoppers, while online retailers geared toward women must enhance the online shopping experience. Implication: The fact that women are more experienced focused and presumably for this reason prefer in store shopping bodes well to retailers – they provide something that is likely a long ways away for online shopping. Retailers must play to this strength. Matching CPS Data to Expenditure Data How well does CPS data match up to actual spending? Using data collected by the United States Census Bureau, we compare month to month revenue at Hardware Store, Building Material Distributors, and Paint supply stores to consumers’ likelihood of reporting a Home Maintenance problem. The data are highly statistically correlated (see the chart below). Further, we have compared the likelihood of reporting a Home Maintenance problem with Google Trends Search index for the term “Home Repair.” Again, we see a significant correlation. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 11 Proportion of Home Maintenance Problems Consumers Plan to Solve at Market Home Maintenance Problems, Revenue, and Search Behavior 40 http://www.census.gov/retail/Retail and Food Services Sales: Excel (1992-present) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 $ (Revenue) Building Materials (Billions) Google Trend Search Index (Home Repair) $ (Revenue) Hardware Stores (Hundreds of Millions) $ (Revenue) Paint Stores(Hundreds of Millions) Home Maintenance Problems (% of all Problems) 0 Key Finding: CPS problem data correlates with revenues in the businesses which should profit from the occurrence of given problems and Google Trends data, indicating consumers’ behaviors does in fact mirror what is recorded in the survey. Implication: Over time, CPS data will be able to predict spending and revenues in a number of specific industries and sectors. Consumer problems are opportunities for the firms that understand them best. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 12 A Deep Dive into the Housing Category In this section of the Consumer Problem Survey Report, the data from one sub-category is dissected to demonstrate the depth of analysis that is possible. 2523 Respondents have reported a Home and Housing Problem as their Most Pressing Problem Severity 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 30 941 Changing Home Repair / Housing Needs Home Home Security Homes / Modification -- -- Comfort, Maintenance -- -- Alarms, Moving -Roof, Appliances, Cleaning, Locks, Location, Size, Plumbing, Storage, Misc. Pests, Trash, Neighborhood Price Decoration Gardening Safety Recalled Problem. of them specified the sub-category “Home Maintenance”. The sub-category, “Home Maintenance” was rated as the second least severe type of Home and Housing sub-category problem. There are 7 types of home maintenance problems that consumers report experiencing. Interior cleaning (vacuuming, dusting, moping, etc.) problems constituted the vast majority of these problems. There were also a significant number of gardening, pest and extraneous chores reported as problems. Types of Maintenance Problems 100% 90% Chores 80% 70% 60% Interior Cleaning Junk (Old Stuff) Removal Exterior Cleaning 50% 40% Pest Problems 30% 20% 10% Gardening… 0% Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research Gardening Work The average age of a person with a home maintenance problem in our sample was 35.06 (sample mean 31.5), females were slightly more likely to report a home maintenance problem 57% than males 42% (49% - 51%). Home maintenance problems composed 8% of all problems. Caucasians reported 81% of maintenance problems while only making up 76% of the sample. The educations statistics of those reporting a maintenance problem matched those of the sample. 13 How do consumers plan to solve their home maintenance problems? 9 different types of solution were reported as proposed purchases. Solutions of Home Maintenance Problems Tools, Kitchen Supplies, or Organization Tool 26% Consumers typically plan to spend about $60 (median predicted purchase) to solve their fitness problem. The mean predicated purchase amount ($231) indicates that some consumers plan to spend much more. Cleaning Service 49% Repairs or Renovations Purchase New 16% Home Purchase 3% Appliance 2% Pet Supplies 1% Home Supplies 1% Rent New Home 1% Purchase Safety Equipment 1% Key Finding: Cleaning service purchases are the most common fitness problem solution to be reported, but they only make up 50% of purchases. The other 50% of purchases come from a variety of product categories. Implication: Consumers are seemingly more interested in paying someone to take care of their maintenance problem than purchasing the supplies and tools to do it themselves. Firms should be prepared to take advantage of this desire by offering solutions to consumers before the problem starts. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 14 Where do consumers search for information regarding their Home Maintenance problem? Compared to their expected search for other types of problems, consumers report relying heavily on reviews (~11% across all problem categories). Providers must be aware of this and manage their reputation accordingly. Top notch customer service may be the most powerful marketing tool. Advertising 9% Brick and Mortar 7% Word of Mouth 14% Social Media Review 4% Web Site 23% General Web Search 25% Web Market Place Brand 13% Web Site 5% Validation of the CPS Importantly, review of follow up data also Predicted vs Actual Spending indicates that consumers’ original responses were predictive of their Attire likelihood of making a purchase. Those Finance Home/Housing who eventually purchased a solution rated Transportation their problem as being more significant Communication and more urgent. Further, they were Social more likely to state they had the Health resources to solve the problem, and the Personal Care Work and Life resources to generally solve problems. Finally, consumers who ultimately $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 purchased a solution originally stated they Predicted Actual were more likely to do so (compared to those who did not eventually purchase a solution), and these consumers anticipated that they would make a purchase sooner than those who did not end up making a purchase. Consumers were also remarkably accurate in their predictions of how much they would spend. Key Finding: Comparison of original data and follow up data suggests consumers are predictive of their future purchase behavior, validating the CPS and implications derived from the CPS. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 15 CPS Methodology The CPS begins by having respondents focus on the types of problems that they intend to solve. Consumers are asked to reflect on problems they are experiencing in their lives and identify their most pressing problem via a cascading drop-down menu. The drop-down menu has a structure that was developed over 12 months on the basis of thousands of consumers’ responses to openended questions about their problems. Table 1. Major Categories and Subcategories for the CPS Problem Set Attire --- (Clothing, Accessories, Shopping, Alteration/Cleaning) Clothing / Accessories Shopping and Selection Laundry, Cleaning, Alteration, Repair Communication --- (Internet, Technology, Computers, Phone, Tablets, Service Providers) Phone, Smart Phone Computer, Laptop, Tablet Software / Data / Cloud Storage Router / Modem / Other Connection Device Service Provider Online Security Finance --- (Insurance, Banking, Money Management, Taxes) Insurance -- Car, Home, Auto, Other insurance Problems Banking -- Savings, Loans, ATMs, Checking Money Management -- Credit Cards, Credit Score, Advising, Budgeting Taxes -- Software, Advising Health --- (Physical/Mental: Allergy, Flu, Injury, Cholesterol, Insomnia, Cancer) Acute Physical Problem -- Cuts, Broken Bones, Stings, Flu Chronic Physical Problem -- Blood Pressure, Asthma, Diabetes Mental -- Depression, Anxiety, ADHD, PTSD Home/Housing --- (Changing Home, Repair/Renovation, Home Needs) Changing Homes / Moving -- Location, Size, Price Home Repair / Modification -- Roof, Plumbing, Decoration Housing Needs -- Comfort, Appliances, Storage, Misc. Home Maintenance -- Cleaning, Pests, Trash, Gardening Home Security -- Alarms, Locks, Neighborhood Safety Personal Care --- (Diet, Groceries / Food, Fitness, Hygiene, Dental/Vision) Fitness -- Weight, Cardio, Muscles Diet - Groceries, Supplements, Diets, Food Delivery Skin -- Aging, Acne, Dry Hair Eye Care Dental Care Social --- (Children, Pets, Parents, Friends, Celebrations, and Dating) Current Relationships Child Care -- Education, Diet, Safety, Discipline Desired Relationships Pet, Pet Supplies Social Interaction Problem Transportation --- (Auto, Alt. Transport, Public Transport, Distance Transport) Personal Auto and Commute Personal Alternative Transportation (Bike or Other) Local Public Transportation Long Distance Transportation Work and Life --- (Time, Entertainment, Training, Work Place, Safety) Time / Sleep Boredom / Entertainment Personal Progress Professional / Work Problems Safety Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 16 The structure is built around nine major categories, thirty eight subcategories, and two hundred and sixty seven specific problems. Respondents who have a problem that does not appear in the structure are encouraged to describe it via open-ended response. Greater than 95% of our respondents find their problem on our list. That said, we update the problem list when new problems are discovered. After respondents identify their top-of-mind problem in Stage 1 of the survey, they answer a series of questions about this problem, including: how severe it is (severity), how urgent it is (urgency), and how long they have had it (duration). Respondents then answer a series of questions regarding the solutions they are considering, such as when they expect to solve the problem, where they have searched for solutions, whether the solution is replacing a previous solution, and what solution they are considering. In the second stage of the survey, consumers are shown 20 problems drawn randomly from the full set of 267. Each respondent is asked to indicate which problems (if any) on the list they are experiencing. In summary, the CPS collects problems in two ways. During Stage 1, the CPS determines which single problem is most top of mind. For this problem, the CPS gathers extensive data on severity, duration, urgency, and how and when the respondent expects to solve the problem. In Stage 2, the CPS asks respondents to identify all the problems they have from a random subset of the full list of 267 problems. By combining response during Stage 2 across respondents, the CPS yields a comprehensive picture of the problems consumers need to solve. THE CPS SAMPLE 11,618 respondents were surveyed from Amazon Mechanical Turk, an online crowd-sourcing platform. Summary demographic statistics for the sample are as follows: Mean age: 32.3 years Mean income: $50,453 Gender: 51% Male, 49% Female Race: 77% Caucasian, 7% African American, 8% Asian, 6% Latino, and 2% other Education: 10% HS/GED, 43% Vocational/some College, 36% BA/BS, 10% Masters or higher All respondents live in the U.S., and all 50 states are represented in the sample. This report reflects responses that were collected from October 2013 to August of 2014. Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 17 ABOUT THE GEORGETOWN INSTITUTE FOR CONSUMER RESEARCH (GICR) The Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research, sponsored by KPMG, conducts and disseminates scientifically rigorous research that leads to innovative and actionable insights about consumers. The Consumer Problem Survey and this report were conceived, designed, conducted, and produced by: Christopher Hydock, PhD: Researcher for GICR at the Georgetown University McDonough School of Business Kurt A. Carlson, PhD: Associate Professor of Marketing and Director of GICR at the Georgetown University McDonough School of Business To speak to the authors of this report, please contact Angela Olson at Live Wire Media Relations (703-519-1600). Find GICR on the web: http://consumerresearch.georgetown.edu/ Find other GICR Research at: http://consumerresearch.georgetown.edu/institute-findings/ To see an infographic with findings from this survey: http://consumerresearch.georgetown.edu/institute-findings/reports/the-consumer-problemsurvey-december-2013/ Georgetown Institute for Consumer Research 18
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