Use of Climate Information in Agricultural Risk Management Decisions Tonya Haigh Research Specialist – Rural Sociology National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln Co-authors: Dr. Michael Hayes (NDMC, UNL) Dr. Karina Schoengold (UNL), Dr. Brad Lubben (UNL), Dr. Tsegaye Tadesse (NDMC, UNL) What have we learned about how farmers use climate information to manage climate risks? U2U – CAP Survey - 2012 CAFIO Survey - 2014 Farmers say they are not very influenced by climate information 100 Percent of farmers “moderately to strongly influenced” by each of the following types of weather/climate information: 90 80 70 Historical Past12Months 60 Currentweather 50 one_sevenDayForecast 40 eight_fourteenDayOutlook 30 Monthly_SeasonalOutlook Annual_Longer_termOutlook 20 10 0 1 Farmers are uncertain about using seasonal climate forecasts in decision-making Unwilling 20% Question: How willing are you to use climate forecasts to help make decisions about agricultural practices? Uncertain 44% Willing 36% We would like climate information to influence farm decision-making like this: Information about future climate conditions Farmer’s expectations of future weather Farmer decisions But in practice, the process looks more like this: Yields, Income, Natural Resource Outcomes External Factors Social Factors Internal Factors Farmer’s past experiences Options available Farmer decisions Production and Land Use Practices Expectations of future weather, markets, input prices etc. Incomplete Information about multiple future conditions (weather, markets, input prices, policies) Credit Risby et al. Farmers are heterogeneous in their concerns about climate risks Percent of farmers concerned about flooding, extreme rains, drought, and heat stress for their farm 63% 65% 71% 11% 19% 25% 31% 40% 59% 72% South Dakota 77% Nebraska 83% Iowa FLOODS EXTREME RAINFALL DROUGHT HEAT STRESS ON CROPS Farmers make decisions about many types of risk management strategies Percent of farmers using each type of risk management strategy 79% 76% 57% 53% 32% 32% 27% 7% Farmers are heterogeneous in their use of risk management strategies Proportion of farmers by state using risk management strategies Nebraska South Dakota ANY IRRIGATION 49% 17% 10% 2% 9% 4% 32% 44% 48% 56% 61% 67% Iowa NO-TILL NON-CONVENTIONAL CROPS LIVESTOCK AND CROPS Farmers consider many factors when making decisions about tillage 44% No-Till Reduced Till Conventional Till 17% 17% 9% 8% 9% 4% 1% 1% 1% 13% 11% 23% 25% 30% 32% 28% 15% 17% 19% 26% 39% 42% 41% Most important factors in choosing tillage system Farmers consider many factors in decisions about crops and rotations Most important factors in choosing cropping system by system Non-Conventional Crops Drought Tolerant Varieties Corn/Soybean/Wheat or C/S Rotation 19% 10% 8% 9% 16% 10% 10% 9% 8% 5% 8% 9% 16% 16% 18% 19% 22% 27% 24% 25% 25% 26% 5% 5% 7% 6% 9% 6% 8% 9% 17% 24% 42% 40% 44% 47% All Take-away Farmers are a diverse group of stakeholders with diverse needs for climate and weather information A better understanding of the needs of specific groups, and how/when decisions are made, should lead to more usable, and more widelyused, climate information Thank you! Tonya Haigh National Drought Mitigation Center 402-472-6781 [email protected] http://drought.unl.edu http://http://cafio.unl.edu/prg