Preparing for Climate Changes Along the U.S.

Preparing for Climate Changes
Along the U.S.-Mexico Border
CPAS Workshop – 26 March 2015 – Las Cruces, NM
Gregg Garfin, The University of Arizona
•
•
•
•
Water
Co-production
Services
Collaboration
North American
Climate Services
Partnership
Foundational
Capabilities
• Forecasts / monitoring
• Precipitation
Thematic Areas
• Drought
• Wildfires
Regional Pilot Areas
• Great Lakes
• Rio Grande-Bravo
Audra Melton
Río Grande Plumbing
Natural Contributions
Upper
Watershed
Agriculture
Evaporation
M&I
The Big Bend
Audra
Melton
Diagram: Mark Briggs, WWF
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and Rio Grande Regional Water Authority. 2013. Lower Rio Grande
Basin Study. Denver, Colorado.
John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M
Area-Averaged Precipitation
John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M
Area-Averaged Temperature
John Neilsen-Gammon, Texas A&M
SUMMER
SPRING
Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P., Original source: Jack Schmidt, University of Utah
Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P., Original source: Jack Schmidt, University of Utah
Geomorphic Change
Rio Grande/Rio Bravo
Johnson Ranch
Eddy
Sand Bars
Hotsprings, 1936
1945
• Channel spans entire
width of bedrock walls
• Alternating sand bars
• Active eddy
2008
• Floodplain surface inset
within bedrock walls
• Steep, high banks
completely colonized by
tamarisk
• Eddy has filled with
sediment and is colonized
by giant cane
Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P., Original source: Dean and Schmidt, 2011; 2013
Channel sedimentation
alters aquatic and
riparian habitat
Hotsprings, 1936
• Fewer backwaters
• Deeper pools
• Changing substrate – loss of
sandy bottoms
• Larger debris fans at tributary
mouths, gravel accumulation
• Steeper, faster riffles
• Wider, more continuous
riparian forest (exotic
species)
• Rising flood stage
• Decreased hyporheic
exchange and complex
biogeochemical environment
Courtesy of Jeffrey Bennett, Big Bend N.P.
Woodhouse, C. A., D. W. Stahle, and J. Villanueva Diaz. 2012. Rio Grande and Rio Conchos water
supply variability over the past 500 years. Climate Research 51:147.
U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and Rio Grande Regional Water Authority. 2013. Lower Rio Grande
Basin Study. Denver, Colorado.
Photo: Daniel Griffin, University of Arizona
Optimal Control
Optimal Control
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario Planning
Elements
Common to A-D
Elements
Common to A-C
Possible Futures
Elements
Common to A-B
A
B
C
D
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
Holly C. Hartmann Consulting
Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
Holly C. Hartmann, Consulting
Ralph P. Marra, SWR Consulting
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
Photo source: Getty
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/02/zero-hours-contracts-_n_4028635.html
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
https://www.flickr.com/photos/gorillasushi/3164059182/
Peterson et al., 2003. Conservation Biology
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
high
Speculations
Complexity
Explorations
Scenarios
Projections
Forecasts & Predictions
Facts
low
low
Uncertainty
high
Adapted from Zurek and Henrichs, 2007
Challenge thinking about the future.
Foster strategic thinking.
Adapted from Holly C. Hartmann Consulting
Optimal Control vs. Scenario Planning
Optimal Control
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario Planning
Elements
Common to A-D
Elements
Common to A-C
Possible Futures
Elements
Common to A-B
A
B
C
D
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
Holly C. Hartmann, Consulting
Ralph P. Marra, SWR Consulting
Optimal Control vs. Scenario Planning
Optimal Control
Outcomes
A
B
C
D
Scenario Planning
Elements
Common to A-D
Elements
Common to A-C
Possible Futures
Elements
Common to A-B
A
B
C
D
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
Holly C. Hartmann, Consulting
http://cpo.noaa.gov/AboutCPO/AllNews/TabId/315/ArtMID/668/ArticleID/111446/ScenarioPlanning-for-Climate-Adaptation-workshop-along-the-USMexico-border.aspx
PESTLE
Political
Economic
Social
Technological
Legal
Environmental
Administration change
New energy infrastructure
Public awareness of
drought
New “plumbing”
International water
treaties
Invasive species changes
Drivers of Change
Critical Uncertainties
High/High
UNCERTAINTY
IMPACT
Increased public awareness
E-flow science
Treaty/Legal
Agriculture change/economics
Water intensive economic
activity
• Recharge
• Precipitation
UNCERTAINTY
•
•
•
•
•
• Decreased federal
funding
• Invasive species
• 100-year river flood
IMPACT
Scenario Matrices
& Impacts
DRIVER 2
DRIVER 1
Scenario Matrices
& Impacts
Early
Precipitation
More
Monsoon
Onset
Less
Late
Early
Disappointment
Banana Republic
Precipitation
Death Valley
More
Monsoon
Onset
Less
Head for the Hills
Late
Amplify Challenges
Incorrect
Outside Factors
Affecting E-flow
Understanding
of the System
Correct
Moderate Challenges
Amplify Challenges
Grasping at
Straws
Luck of
The Draw
Understanding
of the System
Outside Factors
Affecting E-flow
Incorrect
All Dressed Up…
Correct
Let’s Get to Work
Moderate Challenges
Nested Matrices
Social-Ecological
CLIMATE
Luck of the Draw + Head for the Hills
2015-2035
• Increasing
storage
• Less resource
conflict
• Increasing
unintended
consequences
2035-2055
2055-2075
• Increased
• Groundwater
storage
and surface
• Increased
water surplus
• Novel
flooding 
ecosystems
maladaptive
(scrub)
flood control
initiatives
• Invasive species
Implications
Categories
IBWC/CILA
Emergency
Management
NGOs
Luck of the Draw/Head for the Hills
Increased flood operations; Increased
operation and management of
levees; greater commitment to treaty
More resources spent on more
floods; repeated emergency response
If reset flows generate positive
effects, then NGO stays, if not…
National Park Service More budget stress; more stress on
human resources; riparian invasives
Flow Chart for Using Forecasts
Situational
Assessment
Outlook
Available?
Yes
Relevant
Metrics
No
Sufficient
Skill?
No
Vulnerability
Assessment
Forecast support
Decision makers
Decision makers
and Forecast
support
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM
No Skill or No Signal
- Local, New Studies
- Assess Broad Range
of Past Conditions
Prepare for All Conditions
-Problems/Opportunities:
thresholds, past
frequency & variability
-Mitigation of negatives
-Positioning for positives
Yes
Proportionally
Prepare for :
- Correct Forecast
- Incorrect Forecast
- Forecast ‘Bust’
Holly C. Hartmann Consulting
Opportunities
http://www.nature.org/ourinitiatives/regions/
northamerica/areas/coloradoriver/coloradoriver-delta-pulse-flow-reaches-the-sea.xml
The future is not a magnification of current challenges.
Holly C. Hartmann Consulting
Pagano, 2008
Gregg Garfin
School of Natural Resources
and
Institute of the Environment
The University of Arizona
[email protected]
520-626-4372
Acknowledgments and References
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David Brown, NOAA NCEI (co-chair North American Climate
Services Partnership Rio Grande Basin Pilot Project)
Meredith Muth, NOAA CPO (North American Climate
Services Partnership, U.S. Coordinator)
Holly Hartmann (Holly C. Hartmann Consulting – Scenario
Planning)
Dean, DJ and Schmidt JC. 2013. The geomorphic effectiveness of a
large flood on the Rio Grande in the Big Bend region: Insights on
geomorphic controls and post-flood geomorphic response.
Geomorphology 201: 183-198.
Dean, D.J., Schmidt, J.C., 2011. The role of feedback mechanisms in
historic channel changes of the lower Rio Grande in the Big Bend
region. Geomorphology 126, 333–349.
Peterson, G. D., G. S. Cumming, and S. R. Carpenter. 2003. Scenario
planning: a tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conservation
Biology 17:358-366.
26 March 2015 - CPAS - NM