MARKET UPDATE
6/5/15
David Bruce, PH: 630-677-9899, email: [email protected]
Market News
Market Recap - Prices of natural gas at most market locations declined over the report week (Wednesday, May 27 — Wednesday, June 3), and remained
relatively low. The Henry Hub spot price began the week at $2.82 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday and ended the week at $2.64/
MMBtu. At the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), the June contract expired Wednesday, May 27, at $2.815/MMBtu. The July contract moved into the
front-month slot and declined over the week from $2.706/MMBtu last Thursday to $2.634/MMBtu Thursday.
Storage Report - Working gas in storage was 2,233 Bcf as of Friday, May 29, 2015, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 132 Bcf from
the previous week. Stocks were 751 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 22 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,211 Bcf.
Word on the Street - July natural gas was slightly higher overnight. Technical indicators are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to
lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 2.540 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day
moving average crossing at 2.852 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
Observations - Total net generation decreased 2.4% compared to March 2014, as temperatures across the country were well above average during the month,
resulting in a decreased demand for heating. The natural gas price for New York City (Transco Zone 6 NY) saw a significant decrease in price from the previous
month, going from $15.40/MMBtu in February 2015 to $3.73/MMBtu in March 2014.
Inventories
6-10 Day Forecast
Source: EIA
Source: NWS
Month
Last Price
Jul-15
$2.59
Aug-15
$2.62
Sep-15
$2.63
Oct-15
$2.68
Nov-15
$2.80
Dec-15
$2.99
Jan-16
$3.10
Feb-16
$3.10
Mar-16
$3.06
Apr-16
$2.93
May-16
$2.94
Jun-16
$2.97
Change
-0.04
-0.04
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.03
-0.02
-0.03
-0.02
-0.02
-0.02
Updated - 6/5/2015 11:00 AM EST
Summer / Winter
Nov-15 - March 16
April -16 - Oct 16
Nov-16 - March 17
$3.01
$3.00
$3.34
Strip Prices
3 Month
6 Month
9 Month
1 Year
2 Year
3 Year
$2.61
$2.72
$2.84
$2.87
$3.03
$3.13
Source: Nymex
Cost per MMBTU
Recent 12 Months
9-Jun
$6.22
0.185
9-Jul
$6.32
0.173
9-Aug
$6.39
0.148
$14
$12
$10
$8
$6
$4
9-Sep
$2
$0
Previous 12 Months
24 Month FOM NYMEX Settlement
0.184
$6.43
J 13 - 14
A 13 - 14
0.149
9-Oct
S 13 - 14
O 13 - 14
N 13 - 14
D 13 - 14
J 14 - 15
F 14 - 15
M 14 - 15
A 14 - 15
M 14 - 15
J 14 - 15
Month
DEFINITIVE Energy Group, Inc. (DEGI) strives to provide concise and accurate information from dependable sources for all information contained in this report. Nevertheless
DEGI does not warrant the authenticity of such information. This report is for information purposes only and is not intended as a recommendation or solicitation. All conditions
can change with out notice.
6/5/15
Prepared by: DEFINITIVE Energy Group, Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL