Energy Market Update November 20, 2014 Premier Energy Group, LLC / 1275 Bound Brook Rd, Suite 6, Middlesex, NJ 08846 / Fax: 732-302-0606 Market Outlook Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Natural Gas Futures Prices ($/dth) NYMEX Settle on November 19, 2014 2012 2013 2014 2015 3.084 $ 3.354 $ 4.407 $ 4.516 2.678 $ 3.226 $ 5.557 $ 4.488 2.446 $ 3.427 $ 4.855 $ 4.397 2.191 $ 3.976 $ 4.584 $ 3.798 2.036 $ 4.152 $ 4.795 $ 3.731 2.429 $ 4.148 $ 4.619 $ 3.747 2.774 $ 3.707 $ 4.400 $ 3.767 3.010 $ 3.459 $ 3.808 $ 3.775 2.634 $ 3.567 $ 3.957 $ 3.763 3.023 $ 3.498 $ 3.984 $ 3.792 3.471 $ 3.496 $ 3.728 $ 3.867 3.696 $ 3.818 $ 4.371 $ 4.033 2.789 $ 3.652 $ 4.422 $ 3.973 2016 $ 4.154 $ 4.116 $ 4.039 $ 3.776 $ 3.764 $ 3.785 $ 3.810 $ 3.819 $ 3.804 $ 3.828 $ 3.899 $ 4.057 $ 3.904 The Natural Gas 12- and 24-month NYMEX strip prices jumped from last week, settling yesterday at $4.001/dth (up 5.10%) and $3.952/dth (up 2.84%) respectively. The December contract has risen over $0.39 from the end of last week as a result of belowaverage weather forecasts and expectations of a natural gas storage withdrawal today. The EIA reported the first Natural Gas storage withdrawal of the season, 17 bcf , which was higher than expectations of a 9-13 bcf withdrawal. The storage inventory of 3,594 bcf is 201 bcf behind last year and 244 bcf behind the 5-year average. Natural Gas - NYMEX 12-month futures strip ($/dth) $6 $4 Note : Prices in red italics are historical - NYMEX contract expired. $2 11/1/14 9/1/14 7/1/14 5/1/14 3/1/14 1/1/14 11/1/13 9/1/13 7/1/13 5/1/13 3/1/13 1/1/13 11/1/12 9/1/12 7/1/12 5/1/12 3/1/12 $0 1/1/12 Natural Gas NYMEX Strip Prices ($/dth) 3-month strip $4.458 6-month strip $4.217 12-month strip $4.001 18-month strip $3.994 24-month strip $3.952 Apr15-Oct15 $3.768 Nov14-Mar15 $4.300 4.062 4.136 Natural Gas Storage (bcf) week ending 11/14/14 This week -17 bcf 3,594 bcf Last week 40 bcf 3,611 bcf This week last year -36 bcf 3,795 bcf 5-Year Average -10 bcf 3,838 bcf Electricity - Prompt Month On-Peak Prices ($/mwh) PJM West NY ISO $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 Note : Negative number denotes withdrawal Fuel Prices - prompt month NYMEX Natural Gas $ 4.371 /dth $ 4.37 Crude Oil $ 74.58 /barrel $ 12.77 #2 Heating Oil $ 2.359 /gallon $ 16.97 NY Harbor Gasoline $ 2.044 /gallon $ 15.72 Crude Oil - Natural Gas Spread: $ 8.40 Financial Indicators Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ S&P 500 Euro - U.S. Dollar ($) U.S. Federal Reserve Rate (%) /mmbtu /mmbtu /mmbtu /mmbtu 17,611.78 4,655.20 2,043.09 1.2563 0.25% Weather (6-10 day forecast) Expect below-average temperatures for a large portion of the US (from Mountain to Central). Above-average temperatures will occur in most of the East Coast as well as California. Small bands of normal temps will be seen in parts of the Northwest, Mountain states, and parts of the Midwest. HEATING DEGREE DAYS - Newark, NJ H.D.D.s 2014-2015 (Oct-May) Season to Date 557 2013/14 (Oct-May of prior year) 525 NORMAL (30-year average) - Season to Date 585 Senate Fails to Approve Keystone Pipeline The Senate failed to pass legislation this week which would authorize the go-ahead for the Keystone XL pipeline project that would ship crude oil from Canada to U.S. refineries on the Gulf Coast. Keystone XL represents about 1/3 of the entire Keystone project. The rest of the pipe has been built, laid out, and in some cases, is already shipping thousands of barrels of crude oil from the Canadian oil sands across the U.S. border. The current Keystone XL proposal would run the pipeline through Montana, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. The oil sands are one of environmentalists' biggest reasons to reject the proposed Keystone XL pipeline since extracting crude oil from the oil sands pumps about 17% more greenhouse gases into the air than standard crude oil extraction, according to a State Department review of the project. A Republican majority in 2015 is expected to bring the project up for a vote again early in the next Congress, which could generate movement on a proposal that has stalled for six years because of environmental concerns and political division over the plan. Richard J. Albanese Laurie A. Albee Leigh-Ann Barrett Joanne Comune Nick Brown Emmett Capanna Scott K. Fawcett Richard A. Haynal Thomas Pennimpede Patricia Prugh Joseph L. Santo Sara Shapiro Charles S. Wilk 732-302-0601ext 601 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 614 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 607 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 612 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 611 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 610 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 608 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 602 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 605 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 609 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 603 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 613 [email protected] 732-302-0601ext 604 [email protected] This information is provided for informational purposes only. Premier Energy Group, LLC makes no representation or warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of any data provided herein. Any recommendations or opinions provided by Premier Energy Group, LLC are not to be considered guarantees, at this time or in the future. This document may not be reproduced, retransmitted or redistributed without the prior written consent of Premier Energy Group, LLC. 11/1/14 9/1/14 7/1/14 5/1/14 3/1/14 1/1/14 11/1/13 9/1/13 7/1/13 5/1/13 3/1/13 1/1/13 11/1/12 9/1/12 7/1/12 5/1/12 3/1/12 1/1/12 $0 Gas Daily Midpoint - Cash Prices ($/dth) - flow date 11/20/14 Henry Hub $ 4.395 Transco Zone 6 - NY $ 4.795 Transco Zone 6 - non NY $ 4.755 Tetco Zone M3 $ 4.425