Table of Contents Articles ACTIVITIES RELATED TO DISASTER MANAGEMENT FOR EARTHQUAKE IN BANGLADESH Suraiya Begum A STUDY ON MARKET PROSPECTS OF AACHI DIARICE IN CHNNAI Dr. S. Jayalakshmi THE DIRECT MEASUREMENT OF SERUM ZINC IN PREGNANT WOMEN AND ITS CORRELATION TO ALKALINE PHOSPHATASE. Entela Treska, Kozeta Vaso, Shpresa Thomaj THE IMPORTANCE OF MEASURING SERUM ZINC LEVELS DURING PREGNANCY Entela Treska, Shpresa Thomaj, Kozeta Vaso BASICS OF TERNARY OPERATIONS AND TERNARY SEMIGROUPS Vijay Kumar, Madhavi Latha Case Studies A CASE STUDY ON BATHYMETRY AND SST MAPPING USING LANDSAT-TM DATA OVER COASTAL AREA OF BANGLADESH Mozammel Haque Sarker, Mozammel Haque Sarker ENERGY DIVERSIFICATION FOR SELF IMPROVEMENT OF WATER QUALITY Bayu Parlinto A case study on Bathymetry and SST Mapping using Landsat-TM Data over Coastal Area of Bangladesh M H Sarker, S M M Rahman & M R Akhand Bangladesh Space Research and Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO), Agargaon, Sher-e-Bangla Nagar, Dhaka-1207, Bangladesh Abstract Coastal bathymetry is important for monitoring the emergence of new land, navigational channel maintenance as well as for fish resources tracking purposes. But coastal bathymetry undergoes frequent changes due to coastal processes such as erosion and deposition of soil. As a result, hydrographic charts in these areas have to be updated frequently. But Hydrographic surveying by conventional ship borne sounding technique is slow and expensive. Remote sensing techniques can be used with limited ground observation to study and monitoring these changes. The unique character of the shorter wave length visible channel, such as blue (0.45-0.52µm) has the ability to penetrate water to a significant depth and generates radiance that reflects submarine albedo. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is important for climate modeling, study of the earth's heat balance, atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns and anomalies (such as El Niño/La Niña) in global scale. It is also important for tropical cyclogenesis. In local scale it is used as an indicator of the environment required for the living of some marine biota. Conventional techniques of obtaining SST is time consuming and expensive. Again, the satellite remote sensing techniques found very useful. A number of studies have been performed on bathymetry and SST mapping using TM, AVHRR and MODIS data but most of the studies have been conducted outside of Bangladesh. In this paper, an attempt has been made to prepare a digital map showing the distribution of bathymetry and SST using Landsat-TM data over coastal area of Bangladesh. The average water depth depicted this image in between 1 to 12.5 meter. The distribution of SST varies of location. Higher the surface temperature at the location near the shoreline compared to location farther. Distribution of higher temperature contributed by suspended sediment and residential area. Keywords: Bathymetry, SST, Hydrographic, Environment, Remote sensing 1. Introduction Bangladesh has three distinct coastal regions, namely the western, central and eastern regions. The western zone is very flat and low and is crises-crossed by numerous rivers and channels. It houses the famous mangrove area called the Sundarbans. The central region is the most active one and continuous process of accretion and erosion is going on there. The eastern region is covered by hilly areas and it is more stable and has a long beach there. The coastal region is characterized by: (i) A vast network of rivers, (ii) An enormous discharge of river waters heavily laden with sediments, (iii) A large number of islands in between the channels and rivers, (iv) Northward converging Bay of Bengal towards Bangladesh, (vi) A very shallow area all along the coast, particularly in the central region, and (vii) A submarine canyon, named Swatch of No Ground, in the western region (M Hossain, 2008). Coastal areas are dynamic and undergo frequent changes over a period of time. As a result, hydrographic charts in these areas have to be updated frequently for safe navigation. Hydrographic surveying by conventional ship borne sounding technique is slow, risky and expensive. Satellite remote sensing technique is able to map the water depth at the critical shallow water areas which are frequently used by the ships forthcoming or leave-taking the ports. Satellite can provide an extremely effective means of carrying out preliminary surveys over wide areas especially in remote regions. A number of studies have been performed on bathymetry using TM and MODIS data but most of the studies have been conducted outside of Bangladesh. Bay of Bengal is a breeding ground of fish and other aquatic animal. Hunting of fish and other resources continues throughout the year. With its resources, Bangladesh meets its own demand and exports marine fish and other resources. Bay is also a favorable breeding ground of tropical cyclones www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 1 and Bangladesh is the worst suffer of all cyclonic casualties in the world. About 5.5% cyclonic storms form in the Bay of Bengal and about 1% cyclonic storm of the global total hits in Bangladesh. Information concerning Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is needed in the assessment of potential fishing zone and site selection for marine culture (grouper, snapper, seaweed, and pearls) (Nontji, 1987), which are normally these areas are rich of nutrient. SST is also used as indicator of the environment required for the living of some marine biota. It is also important for early warning for cyclone formation. In conventional way, the temperature is observed by using the standard mercury thermometer from the water sample collected from the ship. This conventional method applies only for surface water. It is also time consuming and expensive for a large area. With the use of remote sensing techniques, the skin temperatures at the sea air interface are measured with limited ground observations. The study of SST distribution model mostly has been used using low to moderate spatial resolution satellites data, such as NOAA, and MODIS and the result always used for global scale applications. A lot of papers and reports have been published about algorithm/model for SST mapping using NOAA data, most common algorithm known are algorithm model by McMillin and Crosby (Pellegrini and Penrose, 1986; Goda, 1993; McClain, 1981 cited in Hasyim et. al, 1996). Hasyimet. al. (1996) reported that algorithm model by McMillin and Crosby can represent the condition of SST distribution in global scale. In this paper, attempt has been made to prepare a digital map showing the distribution of bathymetry and SST using Landsat-TM data over selected coastal area of Bangladesh. This will be helpful for decision makers of coastal zone management and fishing industries development. 2. Objectives To introduce the new technology in coastal management by using remote sensingtechnique as a replacement of costly and time consuming conventional way. To produce a bathymetry map over Bangladeshcoastal areas using satellite image for safe navigation. To produce a sea surface temperature map over Bangladesh coastal areas using satellite imagesfor fishing industry development. 3. Study area, data and software used 3.1 Study area The study report in this paper is carried out on the coastal area of Bangladesh extending from 89º 15´ 59˝ to 91º 05´ 10˝E and 20º 42´38˝ to 22º 35´ 18˝ N (TM frame 137/45). Figure 1 shows the image of study area. SStudy Area Figure 1: Coastal area of Bangladesh extending from 89º 15´ 59˝ to 91º 05´ 10˝ E and 20º 42´38˝ to 22º 35´ 18˝ N. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 2 3.2 Data used There are many satellites such as Landsat series, IRS series, SPOT series, NOAA series etc are potential usable for bathymetry and SST mapping. But most important is the spectral coverage of the satellites as well as the temporal resolution. As the area coverage is significantly wide. The lower spatial resolution (even up to 1 km) impacts little to view the features. Whereas, higher spectral resolution may be better to separate different features more correctly. It is important to note that blue spectrum region of Landsat -TM occupies most upper part of the visible area in compared to other satellite sensors. TM channel blue having spectrum width of 0.45 μm to 0.52 μm was found to be the most suitable. Among other visible spectrums the blue has the maximum water penetration capacity of up to 20m (Lillesand and Kiefer, 2002) due to its shorter wave length but susceptible to back scattering (Rayleigh’s effect) due to the presence of smaller suspended particles. Also, availability of Landsat data is easier and cheaper than all others. Band 10 of MODIS satellite having a bandwidth between 0.483 and 0.493 μm can provide much better bathymetric maps. Major problem incorporating MODIS in present research was its radiometric resolution of 12 bit, which was unable to be processed due to software limitation. NOAA-AVHRR data are relatively low resolution compare to TM. So for the present research the data of Landsat-Thematic Mapper (TM) captured on 31 January 2010 have been used for Bathymetry and SST mapping. TM bands 6(10.4-12.5µm)was used for SST mapping and band 4 is used for land-water delineation captured on same date. 3.3 Software used ERDAS Imagine and ArcGIS were used for data pre-processing, generation, and analysis. 4. Procedure of data generation Before doing the main process in mapping the water depth and sea surface temperature at study area, the image must undergo some pre-processing. The images must be geometric corrected and also radiometric corrected. The image must be geometrically rectified to enable the further quantitative comparison between the remotely sensed data and the existing chart and maps. Land and cloud masking process to be used to mask the cloud and land area. The land and the cloud cover area are unwanted information in bathymetry and SST mapping. The cloud areas must be masked in order to get the correct result of water depth and sea surface temperature mapping. 4.1 Geometric correction The Landsat TM image of the study area was analyzed to identify the geographical features. The image was first geo-referenced to Bangladesh Transverse Marcator (BTM) projection system by selecting10 Ground Control Point (GCPs). Second order polynomial and then re-sampled with bilinear algorithm have been used during the re-sampling method. All the selected GCP’s were easily identifiable and permanent in nature for measuring accurate results. A Root Mean Square (RMS) error of 0.30 (less than one pixel, 30m) was accepted for the correction process. 4.2 Land and cloud separation A simple algorithm was used to mask the land and the cloud cover areas. If the land and cloud are not masked in the images, it will give the wrong water depth and SST values and will disturb the all processing. For land and water separation near infra-red (NIR) band 4 (0.76 to 0.90 μm) have been used because band 4 of Landat-TM is suitable for land and water separation. In this case DN values of water have been collected carefully from the histogram of the selected image and found DN value 40. This value applied in the equation 1. Luckily I have found the cloud free image so no need to mask out the cloud. Either (Landsat-5 TM) IF (Band 4 < 41) or 0 otherwise--------------------(1) www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 3 4.3 Bathymetry mapping The method of bathymetry mapping is based on Marghanyet. al(2007). Bathymetry mapping involves data acquisition, pre-processing, data processing and output. Download of TM data and collection of bathymetry chart under data acquisition. Pre-processing involves geometric& radiometric correction and masking of land. Data processing involves the estimation of pixel intensity and calculation of water depth.Accuracy assessment needs to improve the accuracy of output product. For pixel intensity and water depth calculation Band 1 (0.45-0.52µm) of Landsat TM has been used. For accuracy assessment bathymetry chart is very much useful but due to unavailability of data accuracy assessment was not incorporated in this study. Figure 2 shows the overall methodology of bathymetry mapping. 4.4 Calculation of pixel intensity andwater depth Pixel intensities are determined in order to calculate the water depth. The unique character of the shorter wave length visible channel, such as blue (0.45-0.52µm) has the ability to penetrate water to a significant depth and generates radiance that reflects submarine albedo. The simple algorithm based on Marghanyet. al (2007) was used to estimate the pixel intensities. Algorithm (2) shows the calculation of pixel intensity. Xi = (log (Li – Lmean))/ 2Ki-----(2) Where Xi is the intensity of the pixel, Li is the image Landsat-5 TM band 1, Lmean is the mean of value of digital number in band 1 and Ki is the coefficient. After getting the pixel intensities, the water depth can be measured by using an algorithm based Marghanyet. al (2007). The following algorithm shows the calculation of water depth. Z = (Ai-Xi)/2Ki----------------------(3) Where Z is the water depth, Ai and Ki be the coefficient. The value of Ai and Ki are 4.9236 and 0.0797 respectively. The value of Z shows the depth of water along selected coastal areas. Figure 5 shows the bathymetry map of study area. 4.5 Sea surface temperature (SST) mapping The method of estimating the temperature of the sea surface is based on the Bambang et al. (2002). The Landsat-5 TM band 6 digital data (10.4-12.5µm) which is located in thermal infrared region of electromagnetic spectrum was used. Because of the direct solar irradiance at this band location is negligible, thermal temperatures of surface features can be estimated by conversion of radiance to www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 4 temperature value. Figure 3 shows the overall methodology of SST mapping. The TM band 6 radiances represent average values of 60*60 m and temperature derived are thus average temperature. The method of obtaining the surface temperature of the water was implementing on Landsat-5 band 6 digital data over coastal areas ofBangladesh. The data used in this mapping are same as describe in section 3.2 with the same area of bathymetry study. Constant relating the digital numbers to the effective at satellite spectral radiance were used in the determination of the temperature. The radiance and effective temperature are determined by using equation (4) and (5). R = α (DN) + β -------------- (4) Where R is radiance and α and β be the coefficient. After having the radiance image from LandsatTM band 6 images, the effective temperature was compute by using the following algorithm. Te = K2/ ln((K1/R)+1)-------(5) Where, Te is the effective temperature in degrees Kelvin, K1and K2be the coefficient. The final step in determining the temperature of sea surfaces is to compute the actual temperature. T = 0.0684 Te3 – 5.3082 Te2 + 137.59 Te – 1161.2 ------------- (6) Where T is actual temperature in K and Te is the effective temperature. Figure 4 shows the SST map of study area. 5. Results and discussions The final output of figures 4 and 5 of the study were depicted the sea surface temperature and bathymetry maps over the selected coastal region of Bangladesh by using Landsat-TM captured on 31 January 2010. The SST and bathymetry maps are a symbolic in further analysis towards the study of coastal management.The SST map produced by the proposed methodology utilized in remote sensing shows the distribution of surface’s temperature over the study area of Bangladesh coast. Based on the output map (figure 4), the distribution of SST varies with location. The location near to the shoreline suffered a higher surface temperature compared to the location farther. The distributions of higher surface temperature near the shore because, the contribution of suspended sediment that gives a higher reflectance of the surface area. The theoretical concepts explained that more sediment suspended at the www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 5 ocean, the more the reflectance will be, thus the higher surface temperature was recorded. In addition, the higher surface temperature recorded nearer the shore line was contributed by the effect of residential area from the location. It is well-known that the residential area will emit pollutant sources that will also supply the addition suspended sediment, thus the recorded surface temperature was increased near the shore. The average range of sea surface temperature was recorded in between 25 27degree Celsius. The result of bathymetry mapping (Figure 5) depicted that the average water depth recorded in this image was in between 1 to 12.5 meter depth. The depth of sea-bed varies with locations. The mouth of Haringhatariver is shallower than the Shahbazpur channel because of the contribution of soil. In addition, the natural shape of the selected area supported the opportunity of deposition process and erosion. Thus, the lower water depth measurement was estimated from the satellite image. Both the results was compared with theoretically idea of the typical SST and water depth of the location since the absent of ground measurement data. However in various studies suggested that methodology used and algorithms proposed have been scientifically proven and could give a high accuracy in certain published literatures. Further utilization of this methods are encourage to be validate with ground data in order to determine the accuracy of estimated values that derived from this remote sensing technique. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 6 6. Conclusions The SST and bathymetry maps are a symbolic in further analysis towards the study of coastal management and fish industries development. The water depth values give an idea to the coastal authority in order to detect location with high deposition of sedimentation that reduced the water depth. The result was compared with theoretically idea of the typical SST and water depth of the location since the absent of ground measurement data. The accuracy assessment couldn’t be done because of non-availability of field data. Validation with ground data are encourage to determine the accuracy of estimated values derived from remote sensing technique 7. References BambangTrisakti, SayidahSulma and SyarifBudhiman. 2002. Study of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) using Landsat-7 ETM(In Comparison with Sea Surface Temperature of NOAA-12 AVHRR) Dr. Mohd Ibrahim, SeeniMohd. 1989. Water depth determination from satellite data Etsuji I SHIGURO et al. studies on the evaluation of water depth around seashore and the land classification in Yap Island using satellite data. Goda, H.H. 1993. Remote Sensing for Fisheries in India.Asian-Pacific Remote Sensing Journal Vol. 5 No. 2. Hasyim, B.; KhairulAmri and MaryaniHartuti. 1996. Pemanfaatan Data PenginderaanJauh NOAAAVHRR untukPengamatanPolaArusLautdandaerahPotensiPenangkapanIkan.Kumpulan Makalah Seminar Maritim Indonesia 1996. Jakarta. (In Indonesian) H. J. CHO. 2005. Depth-variant spectral characteristics of submersed aquatic vegetation detected by Landsat 7 ETM+. Lecture notes on remote sensing in oceanography application. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 7 Lillesand, T.M. and Kiefer, R. W., 2002, Remote Sensing and Image Interpretation, John Willy & Sons, Inc., New York, p, 318, 396 and 415. M Hossain, 1 Sept 2008, The New Nation, Bangladesh MazlanHashim, Adeli Abdullah and Abd. Wahid Rasib. 1997. Integration of remote sensing-GIS Techniques for mapping Seagrass and Ocean Colour off Malaysian Coasts MohdIbrahim;MazlanHashim; Adeli Abdullah; R&D In Remote Sensing Application For Coastal Studies in UniversitiTeknologi Malaysia Marghanyet. al (2007 and Mainozalawatiet. al (2011). Lecture note during the training at GeomatikaInternationa at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysis Nontji, A. 1987. Laut Nusantara. Penerbit Djambatan. Jakarta. (In Indonesian) Pellegrini, J.J. dan I.D. Penrose. 1986. Comparison on Ship Based Satellite AVHRR Estimates of Sea Surface Temperature.Proceeding 1st Australian AVHRR Conference. Perth, Australia www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 8 Activities Related to Disaster Management for Earthquake In Bangladesh Ms. Suraiya Begum & Md. Shah Alam, Principal Scientific Officer, Bangladesh Space Research & Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO) & Prof. Dr. Mehedi Ahmed Ansari, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET) I. ABSTRACT Earthquakes are related to faulting and tectonic instability of an area. Lying in the confluence of India –Burme-Eurishya plate; Bangladesh is extremely prone to earthquake . A strong earthquake affecting the major cities like Dhaka, Sylhet, Chittagong, may result in severe damage and long term consequences for the entire country. Different organizations like Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MDMR), Disaster Management Bureau (DMB), National Center for Earthquake Eng.(NCEE), Bangladesh Meteorological Dept.(BMD),Bangladesh University of Eng. & Technology (BUET), University of Dhaka(DU), Chittagong University of Eng. & Technology etc. play a major role in earthquake risk mitigation to help the economic planning and Sustainable development of the country. In this paper, a brief summary of activities related to earthquake undertaken in Bangladesh have been presented. Key words: Awareness, Disaster Management, Hazards, Mitigation II. INTRODUCTION Bangladesh has an alluvial deltaic land with Himalayas on its north and Bay of Bengal on its south. It is located between 20.35° N to 26.75°N Lat and 88.03° E to 92.75° E Lon. It has an area of about 1, 47,570 sq,km with population more than 140 million . Most of its area is relatively flat lying in the deltaic plain of the Ganges-Brahmaputra- Meghna river system. Due to its geographic location and population density, it experiences diff. types of natural disasters which cause losses to lives and properties every year. Earthquake is the worst of them. The overall tectonics of Bangladesh and adjoining region is convective for frequent and recurring earthquakes. The geo-tectonic setting of the country is seismically very active. The adverse impact of all natural and man-made disasters needs to be reduced for sustainable development of the country. Consequently, it is needed to prepare against all possible disasters. III. EARTHUAKE ZONES OF BANGLADESH Bangladesh is divided into 3 earthquake zones : Zone – 1: the less risky zone (includes Jessore , Khulna , Barisal and Noakhali Dist .) Zone – 2 : medium vulnerable zone (includes Dhaka ,Chittagong ,Rajshahi, Dinajpur and Bogra Dist Zone – 3 : the most vulnerable zone ( includes Sylhet ,Mymensingh and Rangpur Districts. Fig-3 shows the zones.(Source: Ansary,2005) IV. EARTHQUAKE AFFECTING IN BANGLADESH Bangladesh is a part of Bengal basin which is one of the most seismically active zone of Asian countries. It experienced some of worst earthquakes in the past which causes damage to cities of www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 9 Sylhet, Chittagong Srimangal, Dhaka etc. Table-1 shows some remarkable earthquake affecting in and around Bangladesh and Fig-1 shows the hypocenters of them . (Source: internet) Table – 1: Some remarkable Earthquakes affecting in Bangladesh Date Name( Place) Magnitude in Rihcter Epicenter distance from Dhaka (km) 14-Jul-1885 8-Jul-1918 8-May-1997 21-Nov-1997 22-Jul-1999 27-Jul-2003 5-Aug-2006 31-Aug-2007 7-Nov-2007 20-Sep-2008 20-Mar-2008 10-Sep-2010 9-Jun-2011 27-Aug-2011 18-Mar-2012 Bengal earthquake (Bogra ) Srimangal Earthquake ( Srimangal) Sylhet Earthquake (Sylhet ) Chittagong Earthquake (Chittagong) Moheskhali Earthquake (Cox;s Bazar ) Chittagong Rangamati Earthquake Fridpur Earthquake Chandpur Earthquake Bandarban Earthquake Hajiganj Earthquake ManikgonjEarthquake HajiganjEarthquake Faridpur Earthquake ChandpurEarthquake DoharEarthquake 7 7.6 6 8.5 5.2 5.9 4.2 4.5 5.5 4.5 3.8 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.5 17 15 21 264 3 29 1 42 28 1 35 1 35 1 44 V. PARAMETERS OF EARTHQUAKE Generally, the tectonic movement of the earth’s plates which forms the thin outer shell of the earth’s crust causes earthquake. It is a geological hazard. There are mainly 4 measures for earthquake: (source: internet) Magnitude Intensity Epicenter Depth Magnitude measures the energy released which is generally based on the Richter scale measurements. Intensity measures the scale of damage or casualty of the disaster. VI. CATAGORY OF EARTHQUAKE According to the magnitude, the Earthquakes are normally categorized as: (Source: BMD) Very Minor Minor Light Moderate Strong Major Great (Less than 3 in Richter Scale ) (3.00 – 3.99 in Richter Scale ) (4.00 – 4.99 in Richter Scale ) (5.00 – 5.99 in Richter Scale ) (6.00 – 6.99 in Richter Scale ) (7.00 – 7.99 in Richter Scale ) (8.00 or More in Richter scale ) www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 10 VII. DISASTER MANAGEMENT GOB has undertaken a lot of plans and programs and formulated a set of mechanism for effective and systematic disaster management to mitigate the sufferings of disaster, for the sustainable development of the country. These are: Establishment of ‘Ministry of Disaster management & Relief’ ( MDMR ),the Govt. coordinator which is responsible for all activities regarding all types of disasters. Establishment of disaster management organization named ‘Disaster Management Bureau’ (DMB) Establishment of Council & Committee upto union level to maintain proper coordination among the concerned departments and and community people and to ensure their proper functioning. Establishment of Emergency Operation Center for collect information about the disaster during the emergency period. Establishment of Task Force to operate awareness programs. For the mechanisms to be best operative, the Standing Orders on Disaster (SOD) act as a guidebook. (Country Report: DMB). Besides these, SPARRSO, Bangladesh has taken some projects for strengthening capability of disaster monitoring systems for better disaster management towards sustainable development. VIII. ORGANIZATION RELATED TO EARTHQUAKE MANAGEMENT Disaster mitigation and management is not the responsibility of govt. alone or any specific organization or agency. It requires skilled human resources and well-coordinated efforts from all concerned bodies as well as the public. These are: Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MDMR) Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) Bangladesh Meteorological Dept. (BMD) Bangladesh Earthquake Society (BES) Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation (DRR) Red Crescent Society (RCS) Bangladesh Space Research & Remote Sensing Organization (SPARRSO) Water Development Board (WDB) Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB ) Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET ) Dept. of Geology of Dhaka University Public Works Dept. (PWD) Armed Forces Div.(AFD) NGO's etc. IX. EARTHQUAKE MANAGEMENT/MITIGATION The casualty and damage due to an earthquake can be reduced by suitable mitigation, measures which are categorized as: 1) Structural 2) Non-structural In order to reduce the consequences of major earthquake in the city of Bangladesh, it is necessary to give equal importance to both Structural and Non-Structural mitigation measures. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 11 IX.B. Structural mitigation Structural measures are those that directly influence the building stock through strengthening of code provisions and the prevalent constructions practice. As part of structural measures GOB has So far constructed shelters nearby the highly vulnerable areas. Set up a committee in 1992 to prepare ‘Building Code’ setting the minimum standard which had to be met to construct any building. Public Works Department (PWD) arranged several in-house workshops to train their engineers about earthquake, to use the seismic codes in designing buildings. Dept. of Geology of Dhaka University has started the vulnerability assessment of their existing buildings to prioritize their retrofitting measures. IX.C. Non-Structural mitigation The non-structural mitigation measures include improvement in the state of awareness, preparedness, and other activities before and after disaster. IX.C.1. Awareness / Preparedness Preparedness/awareness requires monitoring, workshop/seminars as well as community based management. Monitoring Though Earthquake is rather difficult to predict, Bangladesh Meteorological Dept (BMD) has installed the Digital Seismic Equipment for earthquake monitoring which has 4 components: Broadband seismometer at 4 stations (Dhaka , Chittagong , Rangpur and Sylhet Districts ) Borehole Seismometer at 2 stations upto a depth of 100m( Dhaka and Rangpur Districts ) Short Period Seismometer at 2 stations ( Chittagong and Sylhet Districs ) Strong motion Accelerometer at 4 stations (Dhaka , Chittagong , Sylhet and Rangpur dist.) Fig-2 shows their locations. The data obtained from these seismometers and accelerometers are being processed and analyzed to find out the following parameters of the earthquake: Location ( Lat/Lon ) Magnitude ( Richter Scale) Origin Time Focal Depth These observed data /massage are sent to New Delhi – Regional Telecom Hub (RTH) and to the local concerned offices, by Global Telecommunication System (GTS ). BMD share these data with BUET, DU, GSB, PMO via radio modem. Besides this, Bangladesh has the following earthquake monitoring systems: Geohazard research group of Dept. Geology of Dhaka University in cooperation with USA, installed a broadband seismometer in Dhaka and several GPS devices at some places of Bangladesh for earthquake monitoring. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 12 Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET ) installed seven free-field seismic instruments on Jamuna Bridge and on its surrounding areas ( east and west end of the bridge, at Dhaka , Gazipur ,Bogra and Nator Dist.(Fig-5). In addition , they installed a borehole accelerograph at 57m. depth. BUET also acquired 60 analog SMA-1 type Accelerograph (Fig-6) installed at different Govt. institutions of the country to acquire earthquake data to develop the attenuation laws for Bangladesh, which can be readily used for earthquake hazard analysis and updating of seismic zonation map. Workshop/Seminar/project Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) with the help of different international funding agencies and local administration and other organizations like Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET), Bangladesh Earthquake Society (BES), Bangladesh Academy of Sciences (BAS), Dhaka University (DU), Bangladesh Meteorological Dept. (BMD), Chittagong University of Engineering & Technology (CUET), Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS), Local Govt. Engineering dept (LGED), BRAC University, Institute of Engineers Bangladesh (IEB), Institute of Diploma Engineers Bangladesh (IDEB), Real Estate Housing Association of Bangladesh (REHAB), SPARRSO ,CARE Bangladesh etc. organized and conducted diff. types of workshop, seminar, symposium and other public awareness and earthquake preparedness programs throughout the country. Community based management Govt. alone cannot properly manage and handle all types of disasters . It requires active participation of local people to provide necessary service during and after the disaster. This new approach of managing disaster known as Community-Based -Approach (CBA), is going on and popularized gradually. BUET has undertaken several projects related to earthquake vulnerability assessment and community awareness. They also started earthquake safety ( mock drill) training to diff. school students (Fig-7). Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) also has published a Disaster Management Training Manual for public awareness guidelines. IX.C.2 Other activities/policies Mapping /Survey Geological Survey of Bangladesh (GSB) is involved with survey and the development of seismic zonation maps for pre and post disaster management. Dept. of Civil Engineering of BUET and SUST undertaken field survey in diff. cities and collected the infrastructure information of diff. existing buildings. For future seismic events and mitigation, BUET and Shah Jalal University of Science & Technology (SUST) prepared microzonation maps of major cities to know local site conditions Fig-8 shows microzonation map of Dhaka. CARE Bangladesh has developed a seismic risk scenario for diff. cities. . Research /Institutional Activities Dept. of Geology of Dhaka University has got funding from Ministry of science and Technology to carryout researches in the field of earthquake hazard assessment. BUET has also undertaken diff. types of research activities related to earthquake. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 13 Department of Civil Engineering of BUET has established a National Center for Earthquake Engineering (NCEE) and offers Postgraduate courses on earthquake Engineering, Soil Dynamics, Structural Dynamics and Vibration Analysis. Directorate of continuing education, BUET, Institute of Engineers Bangladesh (IEB) has conducted short courses on “Earthquake resistant design and Retrofitting of building” Institute of Diploma Engineers Bangladesh (IDEB) has offered several courses on earthquake vulnerability and seismic design of structures. Relief /Rehabilitation The damage/losses due to any disaster as well as earthquake is assessed by Disaster Management Bureau (DMB ) and Ministry of Disaster Management & Relief (MDMR ). They are responsible operate relief activities and medical assistance for the victim people with the help of concerned agencies. Armed Forces Div.(AFD) also activate “Disaster Management and Relief Monitoring Cell” in Prime Minister’s Office and monitor rescue operation after any disaster. XI. Conclusion Bangladesh is one of the disaster (earthquake) prone country with extremely limited resources. The development of the country is not possible without the integration of disaster management which is dependent upon awareness and early warning. Pre-disaster planning is much more useful than a post disaster management. All Societies at risk of natural disasters require greater awareness of the threats they face and need appropriate education and training to mitigate the hazards. Realizing these facts, Bangladesh is striving hard to establish an elaborate and systematic disaster management system. For this reason, we need to have a system and facility of advanced technology for Early Warning and Monitoring earthquake. International cooperation and mutual collaboration is necessary for that. Ref: 1) Internet source 2) Bangladesh Meteorology Dept. Data 3) Disaster Management in Bangladesh(country report-2003) 4) World Environment Day(disaster prevention: earthquake) 5) Periodic Briefing session on Earthquake Disaster Management(DMB) www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 14 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 15 A Study on Market Prospects of Aachi Diarice in Chnnai Dr. S. JAYALAKSHMI, Professor, Department of Management studies, PRIST University, Chennai, India. ABSTRACT Market Prospects delivers timely commodity market and outlook information prior to spring planting. Interviews with leading experts inform farmers about changing production and market conditions that will influence production levels and prices of the major Saskatchewan crops in the coming year. Key words: Market prospects, Diarice(product), Buyers behaviour. MARKET PROSPECTS RURAL INDIA with its traditional perceptions has grown up over the years, not only in terms of income, but also in terms of thinking. The rural markets are growing at about two time faster pace than urban markets, not surprisingly, rural India accounts for 60 percent of the total national demand. According to a survey conducted by Mckinsey in 2007, rural India with a population of 630 million (approximately) would become bigger than total consumer market in countries such as South Korea or Canda in another 20 years and it will grow at least four times its existing size. The retail sector has a huge potential for growth as a study shows that opportunities in rural retail sector were estimated to be over $34 billion in the year 2007, which is expected to touch $43 billion by the year 2011. It can be seen from the market that companies like Reliance, Subhisksha are expanding in the rural market. ITC has launched its first rural mall ‘Chaupal Sagar’, which offers products ranging from FMCG to electronic appliance to automobiles. Indian Oil is planning to invest $189.10 in the rural areas during the financial year 2010. Defining product and brand failures A product is a failure when its presence in the market leads to: The withdrawal of the product from the market for any reason; The inability of a product to realize the required market share to sustain its presence in the market; The inability of a product to achieve the anticipated life cycle as defined by the organization due to any reason; or, The ultimate failure of a product to achieve profitability. Product failures and the product life cycle Most products experience some form of the product life cycle where they create that familiar-or a variant-form of the product life cycle based on time and sales volume or revenue. Most products experience the recognized life cycle stages including: 1. Introduction 2. Growth 3. Maturity (or saturation) 4. Decline In some cases, product categories seem to be continuously in demand, while other products never find their niche. These products lack the recognized product life cycle curve. Failure, Fad, Fashion or Style? It is important to distinguish a product failure from a product fad, style or a fashion cycle. The most radical product life cycle is that of a fad. Fads have a naturally short life cycle and in face, are often predicted to experience rapid gain and rapid loss over a short period of time – a few years, months, or even weeks with online fads. One music critic expected “The Bay City Rollers” to rival the Beatles. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 16 Do you know who they are? And the pet rock lasted longer than it should have, making millions for its founders. A “fashion” is what describes the accepted emulation of trends in several areas, such as clothing and home furnishing. The product life cycle of a “style” also appears in clothing as well as art, architecture, cars and other esthetic-based products. The “end” of these product life cycles does not denote failures, but marks the conclusion of an expected cycle that will be replaced and repeated by variations of other products that meet the same needs and perform the same functions. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM Diarice is the rice with herbal properties developed specially for diabetic patients. It can also be consume safely by non-diabetics. Though the percentage of diabetics in Chennai city has increased exponentionally there are no takers for diarice. Therefore this study tries to find out the reason for the sluggish sales of diarice. Based on the reasons the study also plans to develop suitable marketing strategies. NEED FOR THE STUDY This product (Aachi diarice) was launched two years back by Aachi Masala Food (p) ltd. Now the sales are presently almost standstill for reason unknown to the management. Therefore this study had been taken up to understand the reason as to why the consumer of Chennai has not accepted this product, to add the dilemma 35% of Chennai citizen is diabetic. But the mystery remains that a product developed for diabetic patients has not found any takers. SCOPE OF THE STUDY Developing a market strategy for Aachi diarice based on feedback received from diabetic patients in Chennai is the aim of the study. Herein lays its scope. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY Primary Objective: To develop a marketing strategy for Aachi diarice. Secondary Objective: To learn the reason behind the sluggishness of Aachi diarice. Elicit opinion about market for diarice from diabetic patients. To develop a marketing strategy for Aachi diarice. HYPOTHESIS CONSIDERED FOR THE STUDY Hypothesis considered for the study are as follows: Most of the diabetic patients may not be aware of the existence of diarice which could help them in normalizing their sugar level. There may be a willingness among diabetic patients to use Aachi diarice when they become aware of its benefits. Customers may be willing to buy Aachi diarice in small handy packages. The market for Aachi diarice could be increase by distributing through medical shops only. The current MRP of diarice which is Rs. 55 per kg may be the reason behind the sluggish sales. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Research can be defined as “A scientific systematic research for pertinent information on a specific topic”. Research comprises defining and redefining problems, formulating hypothesis on suggested solutions, collection, organizing and evaluating data, making deduction and reaching conclusions and at last carefully listening the conclusion to determine whether they fit the formatting hypothesis. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 17 A research technique refers to the behaviour and instruments we use in performing research operations. Research designs A research design is the arrangement of conditions for collection and analysis of date in manner that aims to combine relevance to the research to the research purpose with economy in procedure. Descriptive research is applied in this project. SOURCES OF DATA Primary data The primary data related to the topic of “A Study on Market prospects of Aachi Diarice in Chennai for Aachi Masala Food Pvt Ltd” were collected directly from the associates through a questionnaire. The questionnaire has been chosen as the total for collection data. A well-structured non-disguised was made use to collect the relevant data for the study. The questionnaire was framed such a way as to elicit the required information. The primary data was collected from 100(sample size 100) diabetic patients from common public in Chennai. Secondary data The secondary data was collected through industry profile, books, and internet. Through secondary data basic information, measures undertaken by various organizations and opinions of a few industries can be obtained. Data collection There are several ways of collecting the appropriate data, which differ considerably in context of money costs, time and other resources. With regard to this study questionnaire method of data collection is followed. The researcher and respondents come in contact with each other when questionnaire method of survey is adopted. Questionnaire are given to the respondents with a request after completing the same. Before applying this method, a pilot study can be completed which reveals the weakness, if any of the questionnaire. Sample design All items under consideration in any field of inquiry constitute a population. Sample design is a definite plan determined before any data are actually collected for obtaining a sample from a given population. Deciding the way of selecting a sample is popularly known as sample design. With regard to this study simple random sampling was used. It is one of the types in probability sampling. When population elements are selected randomly on uniform size then if they are selected randomly and if every element get a chance equally, it can be called as random or unrestricted sampling. Statistical tools: The statistical tools used in this research are follows : 1. ANOVA 2. Chi-square 3. Correlation 4. Regression 5. Friedman Test 6. Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test 7. T- test www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 18 Wilcox on rank sum Test Null Hypothesis: H0: There is no significant difference between income and amount spent on medicines. Variables Cases Mean of rank Sum of rank Income < amount spent on medicines 36 44.17 1590.00 Income > amount spent on medicines 56 48.00 268.00 Income = amount spent on medicines 8 Z = │ T – E (T) │ V (T) Where T = smallest sum of ranks E ( T ) = N ( N+1 ) / 4 = ( 92 * 93 ) / 4 = 2139 V ( T ) = √ N ( N+1 ) ( 2 N+1 ) / 24 = √92 * 93 * 185 / 24 = 256.812 Z = │268 – 2139 │ / 256.812 = 7.29 The table value of Z = 1.96 Calculated value 7.29 is > Tabulated value 1.96 INFERENCCE Since the calculated value of Z is greater than table value of Z., reject the null hypothesis at 5% level of significance. Hence there is a significant different difference between income and amount spent on medicine. Wilcoxon rank sum Test Null Hypothesis: H0: There is no significant difference between income and quantity preferred. Variables Cases Mean of rand Sum of rank Income<quantity prefer 22 39.23 863 Income>quantity prefer 42 28.98 1217 Income=quantity prefer 36 Z = │ T – E (T) │ V (T) Where T = smallest sum of ranks E (T) = N (N+1) / 4 = (64 * 65) / 4 = 1040 V (T) = √N (N+1) (2N+1) / 24 = √64 * 65 * 164 / 24 = 149.532 Z = │ 863 – 1040 │ / 149.532 = 1.18 The table value of Z = 1.96 Calculated value 1.18 is > Tabulated value 1.96 INFERENCE Since the calculated value of Z is lower than table value of Z, accept the null hypothesis at 5% level of significance. Hence there is no significant difference between income and quantity preferred. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 19 Friedman Two-Way ANOVA Null hypothesis H0: There is no significant difference between Amounts spend on diabetic medicines, Average price of the price of the rice, Usage of Diarice at Rs.55, willing to buy diarice. Variables Mean rank Sum of rank (R) R2 Amount spend on diabetic medicines 2.61 261 68121 Average price of the rice 3.90 390 152100 Usage of diarice at Rs.55 2.10 210 44100 Willing to buy diarice 1.39 139 19321 Ʃ R2 = 283642 No of cases = 10 Degrees of freedom = N – 1 = 3 Calculated value of Table value of = 7.815 INFERENCE Since the calculated value of Chi-square is greater than the table value of chi-square, reject the Null Hypothesis at 5% level of significance. Hence there is significance difference. Paired t Test Null Hypothesis: H0: There is no significance difference between convenient outlet for purchase and placing order in restaurants. Variables Mean S.D Convenient outlet Placing orders in restaurants. 1.96 1.32 0.7510 0.4688 Paired differences Mean S.D 0.6400 0.8229 t= Where d = x-y │d│ = Ʃ d / n = 64 / 100 = 0.64 S = √ Ʃ (d – d) 2 / n – 1 √ Ʃ (d – d) 2 / 99 = 0.8229 √ Ʃ (d – d) 2 = 0.8229 * √99 = 8.188 Therefore t = = 7.77 Therefore calculated value of t = 7.77 Table value of t = tn-1, 5% Table value of t = t100-1, 5% Table value of t = t99, 5% = 1.96 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 20 INFERENCE Since the calculated value of t is greater than table value of t, reject the null hypothesis at 5% level of significance. Hence there is significance difference between convenient outlet for purchase and placing orders in restaurants. Paired t Test Null hypothesis: H0: There is no significance difference between willingness to use diarice and willingness to use diarice @ Rs.55 Variables Mean S.D Paired differences Mean S.D Willingness to use 1.7 0.4606 0.5800 0.4960 Willingness to use diarice @ Rs.55 1.12 0.3266 t= Where d = x-y │d│ = Ʃ d / n = 64 / 100 = 0.64 S = √ Ʃ (d – d) 2 / n – 1 √ Ʃ (d – d) 2 / 99 = 0.4960 √ Ʃ (d – d) 2 = 0.4960 * √99 = 4.935 Therefore t = = 11.693 Therefore calculated value of t = 11.693 Table value of t = tn-1, 5% Table value of t = t100-1, 5% Table value of t = t99, 5% = 1.96 INFERENCE Since the calculated value of t is greater than table value of t, reject the null hypothesis at 5% level of significance. Hence there is significance difference between willingness to use diarice and willingness to use diarice @ Rs.55. Chi-Square for independence of attributes Null Hypothesis: H0: There is no significance relationship between income and willingness to buy. Income Below – 5000 – 10000 – 15000 – Above – Total 5000 10000 15000 20000 20000 Willingness to buy Yes 12 6 6 4 28 No 44 8 8 8 4 72 Total 55 14 14 12 4 100 O 12 16 44 8 8 12 Ʃ = 3.5 E 16 12 40 10 10 12 O-E -4 4 4 2 2 0 [0-E]2 16 16 16 4 4 0 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 [0-E]2/E 1 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0 Page 21 Calculated value of χ² = 3.5 Table value of χ² = χ²(r-1) (c-1), 5% Table value of χ² = χ² (1) (4), 5% Table value of χ² = 9.48773 Calculated value of chi-square is lesser than table value of Chi-square. Hence Null hypothesis (H0) is accepted. Chi – Square for independence of attributes Null Hypothesis: H0: There is no significance relationship between profession and convenient outlet. Profession Govt employee Pvt employee Business man House wives Others total Convenient outlet Super market 6 8 6 8 2 30 Provision store 2 2 8 20 12 44 Medical store 4 6 2 6 8 26 Total 12 16 16 34 22 100 O 14 6 8 6 8 20 12 12 6 8 E 8 5 10 19 7 15 10 8 9 6 O-E 6 1 -2 -13 1 5 2 4 3 2 [O-E]2 36 1 4 169 1 25 4 16 9 4 [0-E]2/E 4.5 0.2 0.4 8.9 0.14 1.7 0.4 2 1 0.7 Ʃ = 19.94 Calculated value of χ² = 19.94 Table value of χ² = χ²(r-1) (c-1), 5% Table value of χ² = χ² (2) (4), 5% Table value of χ² = 15.5073 Calculated value of chi-square is lesser than table value of Chi-square. Hence Null hypothesis (H0) is accepted. One way ANOVA Null Hypothesis: H0: There is no significance difference between quantity of rice consumed per day and quantity preferred. Source of variation Between groups Within groups Total Sum of Squares 4.409 88.591 93.000 Degree of freedom 4 95 99 Mean Square 1.102 0.933 Variance ratio F = 1.182 The test statistic is F = = = 1.182 Therefore calculated F = 1.182 Tabulated F at 5% level for (3, 96) degrees of freedom =2.68 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 22 INFERENCE Since the calculated value of F is less than table value of F, accept the null hypothesis at 5% level of significance. Hence there is no significance difference between quantity of rice consumed per day and quantity preferred. FINDINGS When Wilcoxon Rank sum test was applied to the data collected, the calculated value of Z fell in the rejection region. The two variables used for the analysis are income and amount spends on medicine. As the Z value was greater than the critical value (table value) the null hypothesis had to be rejected. Therefore, it is confirmed that the amount spent on medicine has no relationship with the income level of the individual. From the study it is found that the income has no relationship with the quantity of diarice preferred for purchase. When Wilcoxon Rank sum test was applied to the data collected, the calculated value of Z fell in the acceptance region. The two variables used for the analysis are income and quantity of rice preferred for purchase. As the Z value was lower than the critical value (table value) the null hypothesis had to be accepted. Thereby, it was confirmed that the quantity of diarice preferred to be purchased has no relationship with the income level of the individual. On application of Chi – Square test for independence of attributes, a parametric test on the variables income and willingness to buy diarice, the calculated value fell in the acceptance region. This proves that there is no significant relationship between the two attributes. This finding is confirmed from percentage analysis (88% of respondents are willing to buy diarice irrespective of their income). On application of Chi – Square test for independence of attributes, on the variables profession and convenience of purchasing of diarice, the calculated value fell in the acceptance region. This proves that there is no significant relationship between the two attributes. Thereby, all categories of people are willing to buy from any outlet which is convenient to them. On application of Friedman Two-way ANOVA, as the calculated value of Chi-square (201.852) falls much beyond the critical value (7.815) into the rejection region, the null hypothesis was rejected. This proves that the responses to the four factors i.e. amount spent on medicine, average price of rice, willingness to buy diarice and usage of diarice at Rs.55 received from respondents have been significantly different. On application of paired t test on the mean of two variables convenient outlet for purchasing diarice and preference for meals cooked with diarice in restaurants, the calculated t value is 7.77 which fell beyond the critical region (critical value was found to be 1.96 for 5% level of significant and n-1 degree of freedom) therefore we reject the null hypothesis. This shows that there is a significant difference in the responses to the two variables, convenient outlet for purchasing diarice and preference for meals cooked with diarice in restaurants. On application of paired t test on the mean of two variables preference to use diarice and willingness to buy diarice at Rs.55, the calculated t value is 11.693 which fell beyond the critical region (critical value was found to be 1.96 for 5% level of significant and n-1 degree of freedom) therefore we reject the null hypothesis and thus there is significant difference between preference to use diarice and willingness to buy diarice at Rs.55. Thereby, 88% preferred to use diarice whereas 70% of respondents are not willing to buy diarice at Rs.55. SUGGESTIONS It is seen from the study that irrespective of income levels, profession or category there is a general willingness to buy diarice (88% of the respondents have given their willingness to buy Diarice). Also it is observed that irrespective of income level the amount spent by diabetics on medicines vary between Rs.500 and Rs.4000 per month. Further 14% of the respondents are observed to be spending more than Rs.4000 per month on medicines. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 23 From the observation the above two paragraphs it is suggested that diarice has a big untapped market because the market has got both willingness to use the product and affordability. Affordability, because by using diarice alone the sugar level can be brought down to the normal level. Therefore the quantity of medicines used can be reduced to almost one fourth leading to similar reduction in amount spent on diabetic medicines. A feeling of wellness will also be felt by the diabetics because the normalisation in their sugar levels has been brought about using a natural product and not by excessive use of antibiotics. It is suggested that diarice can be marketed in small quantities such as ½ kg, 1 kg and 2 kg packets priced at about Rs.40 and sold through supermarkets, provision stores and medical shops. As it is observed from the study that people prefer to order meals cooked from diarice in restaurants, it is suggested that the company also promote diarice through restaurants. Last but not least it is observed from the study that nearly 90% of the respondents have not heard about herbal rice, which could treat diabetics, it is suggested that the management take measures to promote diarice through advertisements in print media, radio and television. Print media would be apt and cheap because articles about diarice with its benefits could be informed to readers through local magazine and cook books. CONCLUSION The study was able to achieve all its objectives. It was able to suggest a marketing strategy for purchasing diarice. SCOPE OF FUTURE RESEARCH Future researcher may have to also include doctors, super markets and also close relatives of diabetic patients in their study in order to have overall view. This is necessary because the research is done a few months after the suggestions from this report are implemented. Bibliography Kothari C.R., Research Methodology, Wishwa prakastan,NewDelhi,1990 Nargundkar Rajendra, Marketing Research Text & Cases, Tata MC Graw hill Publishing co., New Delhi, 2007 Kotler Philip, Consumer behavior. Webliography www.aachimasala.net www.google.co.in www.consumerpsychologist.com www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 24 The Direct Measurement of Serum Zinc in Pregnant Women and Its Correlation to Alkaline Phosphatase Entela Treska, University Obs-Gyn Hospital “Queen Geraldine”, Tirana, Albania. Kozeta Vaso, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Chemistry Department, Tirana, Albania, & Shpresa Thomaj, University Obs-Gyn Hospital “Queen Geraldine”, Tirana, Albania. ABSTRACT Zinc is recognized as essential for the activity of a wide range of enzymes. The first demonstration that zinc had a special biological function in relation to enzyme function, came with the discovery that carbonic Anhydrase contained significant amount of zinc which appeared to be required for normal activity. Alkaline phosphatase is a zinc-metalloenzyme that requires magnesium for activity and specific dietary deficiencies of either Zn or Mg, have been found to lower the alkaline phosphatase activity in serum. We took into consideration 100 cases of pregnant women, divided into groups according to fetus age, maternal age, zinc measurements, ALP activity etc. We measured serum zinc directly using by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (VARIAN AAS-220) and at the same time alkaline phosphatase activity by a rapid method using p-nitrophenyl phosphate. The data was analyzed to see if there was any positive correlation between serum zinc and alkaline phosphatase activity in all diseases: Preterm delivery, preeclampsia, anemia, cephalic, anomalies. As a conclusion, the statistical evaluation showed that there was a negative correlation between serum zinc and alkaline phosphatase activity in patients suffering from preeclampsia, whereas a positive correlation in diagnosis such as: preterm delivery, anemia, cephalic and anomalies. Keywords: zinc in pregnancy, zinc and ALP, ALP and pregnancy, pregnancy complications. INTRODUCTION Pregnant women are often prescribed to take prenatal multivitamins, especially those with a high dose of iron necessary for fetus’ growth. But the thing is, the multivitamins should also contain zinc in high amounts. Most of the prenatal multivitamins don’t contain zinc which is important during the growth and development of the fetus. Pregnant women know that good nutrition is important for a healthy pregnancy, but it's not always clear exactly why your body needs certain nutrients. Zinc, iron and protein are all essential for nourishing the growth of cells and tissues, which occur throughout pregnancy, and you can make sure you're getting the nutrition your body needs by eating a balanced and nutrient-rich diet (2, 3). A balanced diet provides all of the main food types that are required for both mother and baby during pregnancy. The main food groups are proteins, fats and carbohydrates. Zinc is recognized as essential for the activity of a wide range of enzymes, including alkaline phosphatase, alcohol dehydrogenase, carboxypeptidase A etc. The first demonstration that zinc had a special biological function in relation to enzyme function, came with the discovery that Carbonic Anhydrase, contained significant amount of zinc which appeared to be required for normal activity (1). Alkaline Phosphatases are a group of enzymes found primarily in the liver (isoenzyme ALP-1) and in the bones (isoenzyme ALP-2). The primary importance of measuring alkaline phosphatase is to check the possibility of bone disease or liver disease. Thus the serum alkaline phosphatase is a measure of the integrity of the hepatobiliary system and the flow of bile into the small intestine. ALP is physiologically produced by placenta. It appears in maternal serum between the 15th and the 26th week of pregnancy and increases during the third trimester. A decreased serum alkaline phosphatase may be due to: Zinc deficiency, Hypothyroidism, Malnutrition with low protein assimilation, anemia etc. An increased serum Alkaline Phosphatase may www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 25 be due to: Oral contraceptives, Obstructive pancreatitis, Hepatitis/Mononucleosis/CMV, Congestive heart failure, Parasites etc. MATERIAL AND METHODS The experimental study consisted of 100 pregnant women, which were divided into groups as follows: According to fetus age: 3 women in first trimester 19 women in second trimester 78 women in third trimester According to maternal age: 5 women < 20 years old 67 women 20-30 years old 28 women >30 years old According to zinc measurements: 64 cases were anemic 36 cases were normal According to alkaline phosphatase (ALP) determination: 20 cases with low ALP levels 65 cases with normal ALP levels 15 cases with high ALP levels According to maternal diagnosis: 34 cases were cephalic 14 cases with anomalies 5 cases with anemia 13 cases with preeclampsia 12 cases premature delivery 2 cases hyperemesis 2 cases with diabetes 2 cases abortion 2 cases illegal 3 cases membrane ruptures 3 manual rupture 3 cases breech delivery 1 case with fetal hypotrophy 1 case placenta previa 2 cases twin pregnancy 1 case baby death The techniques used for the determination of serum zinc, included Colorimetry, Polarography, X-ray fluorescence, Fluorometry and Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). AAS techniques are preferred in the clinical laboratory, because of their specificity, sensitivity, precision, simplicity, and relatively low cost per analysis. (4) The direct dilution method presented here requires less than 2 min per sample. We used Glycerol as a solvent for the standards, and it also serves as an ideal additive for adjusting the viscosity and flow rate of the standards. We took 2 ml blood from each pregnant woman and serum zinc level was measured directly by using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (VARIAN AAS-220), at the same time we www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 26 measured alkaline phosphatase level by a rapid method using a new substrate (p-nitrophenyl phosphate). Pregnant women having zinc concentration less than 70 mcg/dl were marked as zinc deficient patients, whereas those having zinc levels 70-114 mcg/dl were marked as normal patients. Pregnant women having ALP levels 100-290 mcg/dl were marked as normal patients. Lowered ALP levels are due to anemia, Wilson’s disease, Hypophosphatasia, an autosomal recessive disease, Chronic myelogenous leukemia, etc. ALP levels are significantly higher in pregnant women because placenta produces ALP. Also, elevated ALP could happen in the case of Paget's bone disease, or in people with untreated Celiac Disease. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A number of studies have indicated that changes in the concentration of zinc in tissues, follow the course of some diseases such as diabetes, chronic renal failure, according to the relationship between zinc and alkaline phosphatase and the effect of the diseases mentioned above. The data were analyzed to see if there was any positive correlation between serum zinc and alkaline phosphatase activity in all diseases: Preterm delivery, preeclampsia, anemia, cephalic, anomalies. The statistical evaluation showed that, there was not always a positive correlation between serum zinc and alkaline phosphatase activity (Figure 1). www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 27 Figure 1: The correlation of serum zinc and alkaline phosphatase activity in preterm delivery, preeclampsia, anemia, cephalic and anomalies. CONCLUSIONS Data showed that ALP levels increased during pregnancy, because placenta produces ALP. According to the 100 cases taken into consideration, there was a negative correlation between serum zinc and alkaline phosphatase activity in patients suffering from preeclampsia, whereas a positive correlation preterm delivery, anemia, cephalic and anomalies. There were in total 100 pregnant women, from which 64 cases were anemic and 36 cases were normal with serum zinc levels low than 70mcg/dl. 20 of 100 cases had a low ALP level, who were considered as patients suffering from anemia or Wilson’s disease; 65 cases had normal ALP level, who were considered as normal pregnant women; whereas 15 cases who had high ALP levels, were considered as patients suffering from Paget's disease of bone etc. REFERENCES 1. Keillin D. Mann J. Carbonic Anhydrase, purification and nature of the enzyme. Bio-Chem 34: 11631471;1940. 2. Sheldon WL, Aspillaga MO, Smith PA, et al. The effect of oral iron supplementation on zinc and magnesium levels during pregnancy. Brit J Obstet Gynaec 92: 892-898, 1985. 3. Picciano MF, Guthine HA. Determination of concentration and variations of copper, iron and zinc in human milk. Fed Proc Fed Am Soc Exp Biol 32: 929, 1973. 4. Prasad AS, Schulert AR, Sandstead HH et al. Zinc, iron and nitrogen content of sweat in normal and deficient subjects. Lab Clin Med 62: 84-89, 1963. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 28 The Importance Of Measuring Serum Zinc Levels During Pregnancy Entela Treska, Shpresa Thomaj, University Obs-Gyn Hospital “Queen Geraldine”, Tirana, Albania & Kozeta Vaso, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Chemistry Department, Tirana, Albania ABSTRACT Zinc is one of the microelements with an essential role in biochemical body-function regulating. Deficiency of micronutrients during pregnancy may give rise to complications such as anemia and hypertension. We analyzed 50 cases of pregnant women, including anemic and normal pregnancies, (control group). Serum zinc level was measured directly using by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (VARIAN AAS-220), these were measured at the same time using Colorimetry, in a way that we could compare the results. According to a statistical data processing, there was no significant difference between two methods of zinc levels determination. The prevalence of zinc deficiency in the age group of 20-30 years old, was higher than in age group of >30 years old, due to the zinc increasing request in younger women because of their growth. In different fetus age, there was a significant change due to the maternal zinc requests. Pregnant women resulting with zinc level <70µg/dL were marked as zinc deficient patients, whereas those with zinc level >70µg/dL as normal patients. Serum zinc levels in 17 cases (34%) was in normal range (>70µg/dL), whereas in 33 cases (66%) was below normal range (<70µg/dL). Without an adequate nutritional request, the person may fall in zinc deficiency condition. Keywords: zinc and pregnancy, zinc normal values, serum zinc levels, zinc determination. INTRODUCTION Micronutrients and trace elements have an important influence on the health of both mother and fetus. Deficiency of micronutrients during pregnancy may give rise to complications such as anemia and hypertension, as well as impairing fetal function, development and growth. Serum zinc level in pregnant women, needs more investigation, because its deficiency may cause severe anomalies of the fetus. Zinc is an essential trace element for humans, animals and plants. It is necessary for the functioning of more than 300 different enzymes, which means it plays a role in a great number of bodily activities. Some of those activities are critical during pregnancy, because they involve embryo and fetal development as well as infant growth (1). Zinc is found in all parts of the body: it is in organs, tissues, bones, fluids and cells. The adult body contains about 2-3 grams of zinc. Muscles and bones contain most of the body’s zinc (90%). Although humans can handle proportionally large concentrations of zinc, too much zinc can still cause eminent health problems, such as stomach cramps, skin irritations, vomiting, nausea and anemia. Very high levels of zinc can damage the pancreas and also disturb the protein metabolism. Zinc - vital for growth and cell division: Zinc is especially important during pregnancy, for the growing fetus whose cells are rapidly dividing. Zinc also helps to avoid congenital abnormalities and pre-term delivery. Zinc is vital in activating growth - height, weight and bone development - in infants, children and teenagers. Zinc – vital for the immune system: Among all the vitamins and minerals, zinc shows the strongest effect on our all-important immune system. Zinc plays a unique role in the T-cells. Low zinc levels lead to reduced and weakened T-cells which are not able to recognize and fight off certain infections. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 29 An increase of the zinc level has proven effective in fighting pneumonia and diarrhea and other infections. Zinc can also reduce the duration and severity of a common cold. Zinc – vital for taste, smell and appetite: Zinc activates areas of the brain that receive and process information from taste and smell sensors. Levels of zinc in plasma and zinc’s effect on other nutrients, like copper and manganese, influence appetite and taste preference. Zinc is also used in the treatment of anorexia. MATERIAL AND METHODS The techniques used for the determination of serum zinc, include Colorimetry, Polarography, X-ray fluorescence, Fluorometry and Atomic Absorption Spectroscopy (AAS). AAS techniques are preferred in the clinical laboratory, because of their specificity, sensitivity, precision, simplicity, and relatively low cost per analysis. The measurement of serum zinc is used to assess the status of zinc metabolism in humans. The direct dilution method presented here requires less than 2 min per sample. We used Glycerol as a solvent for the standards, and it also serves as an ideal additive for adjusting the viscosity and flow rate of the standards (2,3). For this study we took into consideration 50 cases of pregnant women, including anemic and non anemic (normal) pregnancies, who served as control group. We divided mothers according to maternal age to three groups, group 1 (<20 years), group 2 (20-30 years) and group 3 (>30 years), according to fetus age to three groups, group 1 (first trimester of pregnancy), group 2 (second trimester of pregnancy) and group 3 (third trimester of pregnancy). We also divided mothers according to number of deliveries to four groups, group 1 (1 deliveries), group 2 (2 deliveries), group 3 (3 deliveries) and group 4 (>3 deliveries), according to maternal diagnosis (preterm delivery, abortion, anomalies etc) and according to hemoglobin level (4,5). We took 2 ml blood from each pregnant woman and serum zinc level was measured directly by using Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (VARIAN AAS-220). These specimens were measured at the same time using Colorimetry (End-Point), in a way that we could compare the results. Those pregnant women having zinc concentration less than 70 mcg/dl were marked as zinc deficient patients. Tab 1. Zinc distribution according to maternal age Maternal age < 20 years old 20 – 30 years old > 30 years old Total Zn<70 mcg/dl 1 23 9 33 % 100 63.8 69.2 66 Zn>70mcg/dl 0 13 4 17 % 0 36.2 30.8 34 Total 1 36 13 50 % 0 50 69 66 Zn>70mcg/dl 0 4 13 17 % 0 50 31 34 Total 0 8 42 50 Tab 2. Zinc distribution according to fetus age Fetus age First trimester Second trimester Third trimester Total Zn<70 mcg/dl 0 4 29 33 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 30 Tab 3. Zinc distribution according to number of deliveries Number of diliveries 1 delivery 2 deliveries 3 deliveries >3 deliveries Total Zn<70 mcg/dl 20 7 2 4 33 % 71.4 53.9 50 80 66 Zn>70mcg/dl 8 6 2 1 17 % 28.6 46.1 50 20 34 Total 28 13 4 5 50 % 12.5 0 100 30 0 0 66.6 33.3 0 0 62.5 34 Total 8 1 1 20 2 1 4 3 1 1 8 50 Tab 4. Zinc distribution according to maternal diagnosis Maternal diagnosis Preterm delivery Twin pregnancy Hyperemesis Cephalic Abortion Podalic Anomalies Rupture membranes Placenta previa Phetal Hypotrphy Pre-eclampsia Total Zn<70 mcg/dl 7 1 0 14 2 1 1 2 1 1 3 33 % 87.5 100 0 70 100 100 33.4 66.7 100 100 37.5 66 Zn>70mcg/dl 1 0 1 6 0 0 3 1 0 0 5 17 Tab 5. : Zinc distribution according to hemoglobin Hemoglobin Hb < 11 Hb: 11-16 Total Zn<70 mcg/dl 33 0 33 % 100 0 66 Zn>70mcg/dl 0 17 17 % 0 100 34 Total 33 17 50 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Mothers more than 30 years had lower zinc deficiency than mothers in age group of 20-30 years. This may be due to higher requirement of zinc for younger age due to their growth age. The prevalence of zinc deficiency in the different age of pregnancy showed a meaningful difference (higher in the third trimester of pregnancy in comparison to the first and the second trimester) and that was due to mothers increasing requirement for zinc. A data processing was done by two methods, Descriptive Statistics and Anova: Single Factor for the comparison of the results. Descriptive Statistics Zinc measurement with Colorimetry Mean Standard Error Median Mode 61.888 4.245255349 53 108 Zinc measurement with AAS Mean Standard Error Median Mode www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 61.912 4.248454836 53.05 38.8 Page 31 Standard Deviation Sample Variance Minimum Maximum Sum Count Confidence Level(95.0%) Anova: Single Factor SUMMARY Groups Count Column 1 50 Column 2 ANOVA Source Variation 30.01848845 901.109649 24 112 3094.4 50 8.531159864 Standard Deviation Sample Variance Minimum Maximum Sum Count Confidence Level(95.0%) Average Variance 61.888 901.109649 50 Sum 3094. 4 3095. 6 61.912 902.4684245 SS df MS 0.0144 88375.3256 88375.34 1 98 99 0.0144 901.7890367 F 1.59683E05 30.04111224 902.4684245 24 112 3095.6 50 8.537589473 of Between Groups Within Groups Total P-value 0.99681976 1 F crit 3.93811087 8 From the values of serum zinc, taken from normal pregnant women and those suffering from anemia, we built a chart to see clearly the results. It is as follows: Zinc measurement with two different methods 120 Zinc values 100 80 60 40 20 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 Number of pregnant women 43 46 49 Zinc measurement with Colorimetry Zinc measurement with AAS CONCLUSIONS According to this statistical data processing (P= 0.99) and as seen from the graph, serum zinc values, measured with both methods, showed the same curve, so that there was no significant change in the results measured by these two methods. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 32 The most frequent diagnosis was the cephalic one, preeclampsia and also preterm delivery. Mothers more than 30 years had lower zinc deficiency than mothers in age group of 20-30 years. This may be due to higher requirement of zinc for younger age due to their growth age. Statistical analysis indicated that zinc deficiency had a positive correlation with mother age and term of pregnancy, but no correlation with number of deliveries. Zinc is a useful microelement during pregnancy. Serial zinc level was lower in pregnant women suffering from anemia, than in normal pregnant women (serving as a control group). Pregnant women having zinc concentration less than 70 µg/dl were marked as zinc deficient. The serum zinc level in 17 individuals (34%) was on the normal range, in 33 patients (66%) was less than normal. In this study the prevalence of zinc deficiency in pregnant women was about 66%. RECOMMENDATIONS Without a proper nutritional requirement the person falls in the state of zinc deficiency Zinc prophylactic treatment is important before and during pregnancy. Everyone needs zinc. Children need zinc to grow, adults need zinc for health. Growing infants, children and adolescents, pregnant women and lactating mothers, athletes, vegetarians and the elderly often require more zinc (6,7). REFERENCES 1. Keillin D. Mann J. Carbonic Anhydrase, purification and nature of the enzyme. Bio-Chem 34: 1163-1471;1940. 2. Prasad AS, Oberleas D. Changes in activity of zinc dependent enzymes in zinc–deficient tissues of rats. J Appl Physiol 31: 842851, 1971. 3. MiKac-Devic, D.Methodology of zinc determinations and the role of zinc in biochemical processes. Ado. Clin. Chem. 13, 271-333, 1970. 4. Dawson, J. B., and Walker, B. E Direct determination of zinc in whole blood, plasma and urine by atomic absorption spectroscopy. Clin. Chim. Acta 26, 465-475, (1969). 5. Sprague, S., and Slavin, W. Determination of iron, copper, and zinc in blood serum by an atomic absorption method requiring only dilution. At. Absorp. Newslett. 4, 228-233,1965 6. Kiilerich S, Christiansen C, Christensen MS, Naestoft J. Zinc metabolism in patients with chronic renal failure during treatment with 1,25-dihydroxycholecalciferol: a controlled therapeutic trial. Clin Nephrol 15: 23-27, 1981. 7. Wolman SLI, Anderson H, Marliss EB, Jeebhoy KN. Zinc in total parenteral nutrition requirement and metabolic effects. Gastroenterology 76: 458-467, 1979. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 33 Energy Diversification for Self Improvement of water quality Bayu Parlinto, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia. Iwa Garniwa, Technical Faculty, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia Prijono Tjiptoherijanto, Economy Faculty, University of Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia & Muhammad Hasroel Thayib, Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Indonesia, Salemba, Indonesia Abstract Land use changes on the upstream side of West Tarum channel contributed to the water quality decline on downstream side, thus the Jakarta’s water purification installation located on the downstream need to make an effort to improve/control the raw water quality. The raw water quality control concept on downstream side is done by reformulation modeling concept of an integrated gradual reduction on water utilization as material and as energy. Reformulation of water function as a matter and an energy in West Tarum Barat channel is done by gradual reduction integrated the input water quality by optimization the potential energy and savings the fossil fuel consumption and carbon emission reduction. Self water quality control modeling on the West Tarum channel with energy diversification program will support the clean development mechanism program of Kyoto Protocol by the reduction of CO2 emissions and according to principles of environmentally sustainable development. Keywords—Water quality control, energy diversification, modeling. I. INTRODUCTION Water in the West Tarum channel (WTC) is a raw water of Jakarta’s purification installations that have water source from Jatiluhur dam and local rivers as Cibeet river, Cikarang river and Bekasi river. Debit of water discharge in the West Tarum channels adjusted to the needs of the raw water from the Jakarta’s water purification installation (maximum debit Jakarta water purification installation is 16.1 m3/second), while the water quality is greatly influenced by the quality of addition water from local rivers and land use in upstream side. Land use changes and community activities in the upstream side and along the West Tarum channels have a negative impact on the quality of raw water, however, several locations along the West Tarum channel has a potential energy that can be utilized to the energy diversification program. Submitted November 1, 2012. This paper is a researched how to improve the raw water quality at downsteam of West Tarum channel before being processed into clean water in water treatment plant. Figure 1. Basic Environmental philosofy www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 34 Based on basic environmental philosof on figure 1, can the quality of raw water in the West Tarum channel controlled and self managed so the quality of that raw water as required by the Government Regulation of the Republic of Indonesia number 82 year 2001 through the diversification of energy? The basic philosophy of seft-improving the quality of raw water in the West Tarum channel through diversification of energy can be described according to Figure 2. Figure 2. Basic philosofy of diversifikasi energi for self improvement of water quality Research objective The research objective is to perform modeling of the raw water quality control on the downstream side of the West Tarum channel through diversification of energy with a mathematical approach, and also to know the potential energy and CO2 emission reduction accordance of the principles of environmentally sustainable development. 1.2. Study Area The research was done at the West Tarum channel (WTC) from the Curug weir in Purwakarta, West Java to Cawang intake and pumping station located in Halim Perdana Kusuma, East Jakarta. It was done in November 2011 until the end of January 2012. 1.3. Population and Sampling This study use quantitative methode, but the type of data used consisted of qualitative data (secondary data on population, interviews and observations of the surrounding community) and quantitative data (observations of buildings / facilities, measurement parameters, utilization statistics related and others secondary data supporters). 1.1. Population in the study were all data sources including the public / users of public facilities at along the West Tarum chanell, begin from Curug weir, Purwakarta, up to Cawang Intake dan Pumping station at Halim Perdana Kusuma in East Jakarta, The number of social samples are 57 person which can be representative the actual condition and number of water quality sample are 10 location as location mention in secondary data which state by West Tarum Chanell authority (Curug weir, BTB-10, BTB-23, BTB-35, BTB-45, BTB-49, BTB-51, Buaran Intake, Pulogadung Intake, Pejompongan Intake). 1.4. Formulas and Analytical Methods The electrical energy can be generated by the flow of water in the West Tarum channel will be proportional to water flow rate and head of water. Theoretical the potential power and energy can be generated as formula: www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 35 Mechanical energy = 2 = ½mv + mgh Electrical Power : P = ½ ρ A v3 + 9.8 Q h Electrical Energy: E = P t s Potential energy+Kinetic (1) (2) Energy (1) (2) Kyoto Protocol was declared in 2007, launched the clean development mechanism (CDM) as an effort to realize sustainable development and climate change to anticipates that effects of greenhouse gas (CO2) and certification (Certified Emission Reduction, CER ) for investments that can reduce CO2 emissions (CO2 price : 10 US$/tonne, source: The Australian Financial Review, 07 March 2012). Theoritical the rate release CO2 produced from burning fossil fuels can be approximated by the formula: TP (CO2) = 0.9 x [(M.CO2) / (MC)] x Cj x Wi (3) The quality of raw water in West Tarum Chanell will be state in water quality Index (WQI) as formula : n WQI = Σ w1 q1 (4) i=1 Description: WQI = water quality index with magnitude between 0 and 100 q1 = Quality of the scale parameter between 0 and 100 w1 = parameter with the magnitude of loading units (0-1) n Σ Wi = 1 i=1 WQI scale ranges as follows: - Category extremely satisfying if it has a value of 91-100 - Good categories, has a value of 71-90 - Category average, has a value of 51-70 - Category bad, has a value of 26-50 - Categories are very bad, has a value of 0-25 West Tarum channel is an artificial ecology that has the function for irrigation and raw water supply of Jakartas water purification installation. Parameters of dissolved solids is the parameter determining the quality of water, so the concept of water quality control is done by reformulate function of water as the energy and material (parameter for physics, chemistry and biology). Water quality control in the West Tarum channel carried by the reduction of pollution load calculation according to some basic parameters of water quality index (Water Quality Index WQI) in accordance with the principle of energy diversification in development environmentally sustainable. Economic analysis on optimizing the utilization of the West Tarum channel will include : The Net Present Value (NPV) analysis used to determine the equivalent value today of cash flow (cash flow) of revenues and expenditures in the future from an investment plan; criteria for acceptance of an investment plan with the current method is if the investment plans of the above have a value Positive current, P> 0. P = F (1 + d)n d = i + j + i. j www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 (5) (6) Page 36 The Interest rate of return Analysis used to determine the rate of return (Interest Rate of Return: IRR) of the fund an activity / investment. IRR is an analysis of interest rates will lead to an equivalent value and investment equals the cost of an equivalent value of receipts; criteria for acceptance of an investment plan is if the IRR> i; otherwise if IRR < i, then the investment plan is in decline. Pacceptance - P cost = 0 Pacceptance / Pcost = 1 (7) The Benefit Cost Ratio Analysis (BCR), was conducted by way of comparison between the value of benefits equivalent to the cost of an equivalent value; criteria for acceptable / success of an investment plan is that if the BCR has a value greater than one, whereas if the value of the BCR was less than one, then investment plan was rejected / failed. BCR = PBenefits / P Costs BCR = ABenefit / A Cost (8) (9) II. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 2.1. Diversification of Energy Based on field surveys, the optimization of potential energy in the West Tarum channel to be utilized as electrical energy on : 1. Location 1st at Bekasi weir (6 ̊ 14̍ 58.08̎ S 106̊ 59̍ 53.32̎ E), with an average water discharge 11.25 m3/second, the maximum head 6 m, so the potential power 422.61 kW and the potential electrical energy 3 072 693.59 kWh/year. 2. Location 2nd at Sumber Arta Terminal Bekasi (6 ̊ 14̍ 58.65̎ S 106̊ 56̍ 24.77̎ E), with maximun water discharge 16.1 m3/second, maximum head 2 m, so the potential electrical power 201.96 kW and the potential electrical energy 1 468 399.13 kWh/year. 3. Location 3rd at intake of Buaran water purification installation (6 ̊ 14̍ 58.42̎ S 106̊ 55̍ 57.08̎ E), maximum water discharge 5.5 m3/second, the maximum head 2.5 m, so the potential electrical power 86.24 kW and the potential electrical energy 627 033.79 kWh / year. 4. Location 4th at intake Pulogadung water purification installation (6 ̊ 14̍ 50.62̎ S 106̊ 55̍ 15.84̎ E), maximum water discharge 4.4 m3/second , maximum head 2 m, so the potential electrical power 55.19 kW and the potential electrical energy of 401 301.63 kWh / year. Based on the above description, the optimalization water flow in West Tarum channel can be generated 775 kW electrical power and energy 5 569 428.15 kWh/year. Microhydro location 2, 3 and 4 will be supplied to Buaran purification water plan, so it will be reduced energy 2 496 634.55 kWh/year or 208 052.88 kWh/month or 10.68% (Energy for Buaran Purification water plan is 1 948 000 kWh/month, based on PT PLN(Persero) data 2010). Total electrical energy generated by micro hydro power plants (5 569 428.15 kWh/year) is equal with 1 214.14 ton solar per year (Sources, SFC = 218 g / kWh, BBI Surabaya) or equivalent savings 14 745 878 365.39 rupiah/year (Sources : Resha Rabby Lestari PT, May 2011). 2.2. Carbon emission reduction Raw water Jakarta’s purification installations in the West Tarum channel is a natural resource of renewable, cheap and clean energy is one alternative that is environmentally friendly and can be used optimally for energy diversification. Java-Bali generation systems (Jamali) can be grouped into hydroelectric, geothermal and thermal generation (Gas fuel, liquid fuel and Coal). In 2010 Jamali system for generating electrical energy and require 97 942 060 000 kWh and need 30 226 217 809.95 kg primary energy and will result 52 915 649 501.23 kg carbon emissions, so specific carbon emission for Java-Bali generation system is 0.54 kg carbon emission per kWh. Diversification of energy in the West Tarum channel capable of generating electrical energy for 5 569 428.15 kWh per year, if specific carbon emission for Java-Bali generation system 0.54 kg/kWh, so electrical energy generated by microhydro power plan can reduce 3 009 022.97 kg carbon and have www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 37 CER worth US$ 30 090.23/year. (source: CO2 price 10 US$/ton , The Australian Financial Review, 07 Maret 2012). 2.3 Socio-Culture analysis The main building of the West Tarum channel levee made from soil or rock (cement) with the aim of reducing waste. Land use on the banks of the West Tarum channel or compatibles is green open space, but actually the land use had been change to illegal residential, gerdening, garbage disposal and the public utilities for bathing, washing and latrine . On the north side of the embankment West Tarum channel have been used for general traffic. The land uses observations along the route West Tarum channel : 1. Location BTB 1 - BTB 10 : green open land, residential and industrial. Water in the West Tarum channels utilized by the public for bathing and washing, while not directly utilized by pumping water into the West Tarum channel people's homes. 2. Location BTB 10 – BTB 23 : settlements, rice fields and plantations. Water in the West Tarum channels utilized by the communities along the channel for activity Bathing, washing and latrine (MCK). 3. Location BTB 23 – BTB 35 : large industrial area, residential, farm and small industrial / household. 4. Location BTB 35 – BTB 45 : settlements, markets, cities, shopping malls, large industrial area. Water in the West Tarum channel utilized for the activities of public toilets, wash the plastic to the recycling process. 5. Location BTB 45 – BTB 53 : densely populated, illegal settlements on the banks of the West Tarum channels, stores/malls. Water in the West Tarum channel utilized for the activities of public latrines and the disposal of household waste. People’s Activities who live on the banks of the West Tarum channels have contributed greatly to the decline in water quality especially of poultry farming community and disposal of household waste directly into water bodies of West Tarum channel. To determine the effect of people’s activities who live along the West Tarum channel of water quality survey needs to be done. Surveys carried out by taking a sample of 57 persons / respondents who live along the West Tarum channels, with the following results: 1. The number of people who use the West Tarum channel for daily activities as much as 67%. 2. Community activities in the West Tarum channel by 35% in the form of toilets, wash the items / furniture by 37%, 19% cooking purposes. 3. Availability of sanitary facilities to the people who live along the West Tarum channel by 93%. 4. Activities of public toilets / respondents in the West Tarum channel by 21%. 5. Availability of the trash on the residents who live along the West Tarum tract of 91%. Solid waste management is carried out by people who live along the West Tarum channels which are: a total of 29 respondents (51%) stated that the waste is managed by collecting it in a temporary waste management (51%), 41 respondents (71%) of waste management is done by burning , but as much as approximately 4% of respondents had a habit of throwing garbage into the West Tarum channel. 6. The 40 respondents (70%) stated that the liquid waste is not managed and channeled directly local exhaust / local river, 9 respondents (16%) dispose of liquid waste directly into the West Tarum channel. 7. Agricultural activities, farm and small industrial/household done for its own consumption and in small amounts. Cottage industry carried out on the West Tarum channel is in the form of old plastic washing with soap / detergent is carried out in water bodies and outside bodies of water. 2.4 Water quality index Changes in water quality in the sub-watershed (Watershed) Western Tarum channel from 2007 to early 2012, influenced by the parameters of physics and chemistry, biology. Parameter changes and relationships between parameters and other factors outside of the parameters can affect water quality, will be discussed one by one as follows : www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 38 1. The water temperature,Water temperature data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012 showed the fluctuating water temperature and increased, the annual highest average temperatures (30.45 ̊C) occurred in 2009 at STB 35, while the annual lowest average temperature (23.33̊C) occurred in 2012 at the STB 1. Figure.3. Curve of temperature 2. Total Dissolved Solids, Total dissolved solids data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012, the annual highest average total dissolved solids (331.67 mg/l) occurred in 2010 at intake Pulogadung purification installations, while the annual lowest average total dissolved solids (11.50 mg/l) occurred in 2011 at the STB 10. Figure.4. Curve of Total Suspended Solid Data of average total dissolved solids period 2007-2012 from upstream to downstream showed in generally the highest recorded total dissolved solids in dry season/drought to the wet/rain, while the total dissolved solids lowest annual average recorded in the transition from the wet / rain to dry / dry well. On Government Regulation No. 82 year 2001, as a requirement of good water for drinking water levels should have a maximum value of total dissolved solids of 1 000 mg / l. Based on Government Regulation number 82 year 2001, the water flowing in the West Tarum channel has an average value between 11.50 to 331.67 mg / l, still below the required value, thus quite normal and can be used as raw water of drinking water. 3. pH, the annual average pH in the study area fluctuated up and down from year to year, even though such changes are not too significant. The pH highest average (7.61) recorded in 2009 at intake Buaran and Pulogadung purification installations and pH lowest average (5.57) recorded in 2012 at intake Pulogadung purification installations. Normal water has a pH value ranging from 6-7. Discharge of waste into the water can change the hydrogen ion concentration (pH) in the water becomes more acidic or more alkaline depending on the type of waste and chemical substances contained in them. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 39 Government Regulation number 82 year 2001, the requirements of good water for drinking water should have pH levels ranged from 6-9. Based on Government Regulation number 82 year 2001, water’s pH flowing in the West Tarum channel has a quality which is considered slightly below normal and can be used as raw water for purification installations. Figure.5. Curve of Ph 4. Dissolved oxygen (DO), Dissolved oxygen is the amount of oxygen dissolved in water from photosynthesis and absorbed from the air to support life in the water. Dissolved oxygen data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012, the annual highest average dissolved oxygen (6.35 mg/l) occurred in 2012 at BTB 10, while the annual lowest average dissolved oxygen (3.64 mg/l) occurred in 2007 at Curug weir / STB 1. Government Regulation Number 82 year 2001, raw water requirement for drinking water levels of dissolved oxygen must have a minimum value of the rate of 6 mg/l, so the water flowing in the West Tarum channel have dissolved oxygen levels are still below the required value (at least 6 mg/l) and need treatment to increase the DO value. Figure.6. Curve of Dissolved Oxygen 5. Nitrate, It is form of elemental nitrogen present in the water-soluble, animal or human waste, etc. Nitrate data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012, showed the fluctuating content Nitrat and increased, it derived from fertilizer in agricultural activities in the upsteam and human waste (there much toilet emergency in the West Tarum channels).The annual highest average Nitrate (32.66 mg/l) occurred in 2008 at BTB 51, while the annual lowest average dissolved oxygen (0.1 mg/l) occurred in 2012 at BTB 1. Government Regulation number. 82 year 2001, the requirements of good raw water for purification installations drinking should have a maximum value of nitrate concentration with a rate of 10 mg/l. Based on Government Regulation number 82 year 2001, the water flowing in the channel of West Tarum still have nitrate levels upper the required value is equal to 10 mg/l, thus the water is not classified as www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 40 normal / contaminated and cannot be used as raw water for purification installations, so need treatment to decrease the Nitrate value. Figure.7. Curve of Nitrate 6. Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) is the amount of oxygen required by microorganisms to decompose organic substances (digestive substances) contained in biological waste water. BOD data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012, showed the fluctuating.The annual highest average BOD (6.84 mg/l) occurred in 2012 at BTB 10, while the annual lowest average BOD (1.84 mg/l) occurred in 2009 at BTB 35. According to Government Regulation number 82 year 2001 the maximum allowable levels of BOD is 2 mg/l, while the BOD in 2012 in West Tarum Channel at the location BTB 10 increase the standar value and thus the water quality of West Tarum Channel classified as polluted, so need decrease the BOD value. Figure.8. Curve of BOD 7. Sulfate , Sulfate in the West Tarum line derived from the processing activities on clearing agricultural land on the upstream side. The levels of sulfate in West Tarum channels have tended to slightly increase. Sulfate data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012, have tended to slightly increase.The annual highest average Sulfate (201.1 mg/l) occurred in 2007 at intake Buaran purification installations, while the annual lowest average sulfate (30.47 mg/l) occurred in 2010 at BTB 35. According to Government Regulation number 82 year 2001 the maximum allowable levels of Sulfate is 400 mg/l. The Sulfate value in West Tarum Channel was below the standar value and thus the water quality of West Tarum Channel classified as good. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 41 Figure.9. Curve of Sulfate 8. Turbidity, Turbidity of water in the West Tarum tract caused by organic materials and inorganic materials either suspended or dissolved like fine sand, planktonne, and microorganisms. Turbidity in the water will affect the vision and the process of photosynthesis due to inhibition of the incoming sunlight keperairan and efficiency filtration and disinfectant in water purification processes. Turbidity data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012, have a tendency to increase. The annual highest average turbidity (892.34 mg/l) occurred in 2010 at BTB 51 sample point, while the annual lowest average turbidity (21.83 mg/l) occurred in 2012 BTB 1 or Curug weir. According to Government Regulation number 82 year 2001 the maximum allowable levels of turbidity is 50 mg/l. The turbidity value in West Tarum Channel was upper the standar value and thus the water quality of West Tarum Channel classified as polluted (contaminated), so need decrease the tubidity value. Figure.10. Curve of Turbidity 9. Fecal Coliform, Fecal coliform (F.Coli) is used as an indicator of fecal contamination of water by humans or animals. Bacterial species Escherichia coli (E. coli) or fecal coli is an indication of the most efficient, due to E. Coli are only and always present in the feces. Fecal Coliform data in the West Tarum channel drawn from Curug weir up to Pejompongan intake periode 2007-2012, have a tendency to increase. The annual highest average Fecal Coliform (46 000 number/100 ml) occurred in 2010 at intake and pumping station’s Pejompongan at Cawang, while the annual lowest average Fecal Coliform (53 number/100 ml) occurred in May 2010 BTB 1 or Curug weir. Validation data measure in the end of May 2012 the highest values obtained for fecal coliform is 270 000 number /100 ml. Fecal coliform in the West Tarum channel has a substantial upward trend. This increase is due to the many communities along the West Tarum channel that utilizes the channel for MCK (Bath Wash www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 42 latrine). According to Government Regulation number 82 year 2001 the maximum allowable levels of Fecal Coliform is 100 number/100 ml. The Fecal Coliform value in West Tarum Channel was upper the standar value and thus the water quality of West Tarum Channel classified as polluted (contaminated), so need decrease the Fecal Coliform value. Figure.11. Curve of F-Coli 10. Water Quality Index (WQI), In the preceding description, there are several parameters that are not in accordance with the requirements of the Government Regulation Number. 81 year 2001, (parameter fecal Coliform, Turbidity, Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Nitrate, Dissolved oxygen). Value index of water quality in the West Tarum channels have a tendency to decline (see Figure 3), which degrade the quality of the average to poor quality. Water quality at the upstream (Curug weir) has an average value, but at downstream has an average value worse, or in other words the water quality at the Upstream West Tarum channel is still quite good, but at the downstream diminishing to achieve quality bad/worse. Water Quality Index 70,00 65,00 WQI Value 60,00 2007 2008 55,00 2009 2010 50,00 2011 2012 45,00 2012 (Validasi) 40,00 Bendung Curug BTB 10 BTB 23 BTB 35 BTB 45 PAM Buaran PAM P.Gadung BTB 49 BTB 51 PAM Pejompongan Measurement location Figure 12. W Q I Curve 2007-2012 Data quality index value of water at any point of the water sample period 2007-2012 are presented in Table 1. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 43 Tabel.1 WQI resume Table WQI 1 STB No 2 STB Bendung BTB 10 Curug Year Divisi I Divisi I Kab. Karawang Bekasi 1 2007 2 2008 3 2009 4 2010 5 2011 6 2012 7 2012 Validation 3 STB 4 STB 5 STB 7 STB BTB 23 BTB 35 BTB 45 PAM Buaran Divisi I Kab. Bekasi Divisi I Kab. Bekasi Divisi I Kab. Bekasi Divisi I Jakarta Timur 8 STB 6 STB PAM BTB 49 P.Gadung Divisi I Jakarta Timur Divisi I Jakarta Timur WQI Value 55,20 51,76 53,06 56,11 51,99 48,85 50,26 52,80 Result WQI Value Result WQI Value Result WQI Value Result WQI Value Result WQI Value Result WQI Value Result average 60,30 average 66,97 average 62,88 average 62,72 average 55,89 average 62,87 average average 54,09 average 61,50 average 57,79 average 57,42 average 54,56 average 60,02 average average 49,71 bad 50,85 average 51,61 average 60,01 average 56,63 average 62,54 average average 55,33 average 58,33 average 52,23 average 56,82 average 55,30 average 59,36 average average 53,91 average 56,79 average 53,11 average 47,83 bad 55,35 average 58,46 average bad 53,77 average 50,78 average 50,36 average 51,23 average 56,13 average 58,72 average average 54,57 average 51,47 average 48,77 bad 47,90 bad 51,62 average 57,75 average average 49,46 bad 52,99 average 48,94 bad 46,73 bad 54,80 average 59,29 average 9 STB 10 STB PAM BTB 51 Pejompong an Divisi I Divisi I Jakarta Jakarta Timur Timur 48,41 49,94 bad bad 50,58 45,13 average bad 53,21 51,39 average average 48,81 48,61 bad bad 48,18 49,34 bad bad 53,93 54,72 average average 59,07 58,96 average average 2.5 Economic analysis Economic studies of energy utilization in the West Tarum channel will analyze the economic feasibility of investing in small-scale hydropower plants in several locations of West Tarum channels, which include analysis of net present value, the rate of return analysis and cost benefit ratio. Tabel 2. Construction cost for microhydro type Vortex gravitation Economic analysis of investment development of small-scale micro power plants in West Tarum channels that includes the break-even analysis, ratio analysis and cost benefit analysis of Net present value can be seen in attachment 1, the analysis of rate of return (IRR analysis) to analyze the level of interest rates can be seen in attachment 2, In Figure.13 the breakeven point (BEP) investment in the micro power plants reached 5th. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 44 Figure.13. Break even point 2.6 Modeling of Water Quality improvement Modeling take assume that the West Tarum channel section Bekasi weir to Cawang pump house have no illegal channels and no illegal sewer line that goes to the West Tarum. Pattern modeling operations performed by the seasons: Operation rainy season the amount of water contained in the local river is least that dry season, so the water quality in rainy is better than dry season. In rainy season; the debit of local river is 30% (maximum), while the remaining 70% will be supplied from Jatiluhur dam . In dry season all raw water will be supplied from Jatiluhur dam. Based on data analysis of water quality changes in West Tarum channel, have 5 parameters not in accordance with the standards in Government Regulation No. 82 of 2001, namely pH, dissolved oxygen, BOD, Turbidity and Fecal Coli. Decrease the parameters pH, Dissolved Oxygen and BOD due to decay caused by many sedimentation. Increased turbidity parameters resulting grain size of soil erosion and resulting siltation in the channel. The increase in the value of the parameter Fecal Coli caused the entry of dirt human / animal at a body of water, especially water suplisi from local rivers and the inclusion of household waste to the West Tarum channel. Based on observations that the content of dissolved solids from the river Bekasi (372 mg / l) is bigger that dissolved solids from the West Tarum channel (211 mg/l), and so direct mixing of raw water from from Jatiluhur with water from the river Bekasi suplisi be avoided. Block diagram modeling of water quality improvement with diversification of energy can be seen at attachmenmt 3. In modelling at attachment 3, can be present that the amount of electricity generated and CO2 emission reduction varies depending on the amount of usage of raw water in instalation purification in Buaran, Pulogadung, Pejompongan and magnitude of run off water weir Bekasi. III. CONCLUSIONS Modeling of energy diversification for self improvement of water quality is a reformulation of water concept of improved water quality by controlling the parameters of dissolved solids with utilizing the energy contained in water flow on the downstream side. Bekasi weir is an optimal location for the modeling location because it can be optimazied the water as energy and as material. The Basic assumption of modeling are no direct water mixing between water from Bekasi river and from Cikarang’s West Tarum channel, and improve the levees or banks of the West Tarum channels (section Bekasi weir – Cawang intake and pumping station) to prevent the household waste from surrounding settlements throughout the West Tarum channel does not go into water bodies and affect the quality of raw water. Modelling of Energy Diversification for Self Improvement of water quality (attachment 3) can be present: a. Reduction of total dissolved solids parameter is the main parameter in determining water quality by separating the management of raw water from West Tarum channel and water suplition from local river on downstream side. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 45 b. The raw water of Jakarta purification installations in 2011 is 18.6 m3/second the parameters of dissolved solids of 211 mg/l (STB Cikarang) and 372 mg/l (Bekasi river) can be reduced to 103.40 mg/l (reference Regulation no 82/2001, total dissolved solids parameter maximum of 1 000 mg/l). c. Modeling with the data input of water management in 2011, can produce 766.88 kW electrical power and diversification of energy 5 569 428.15 kWh per year and will be implementation of clean development program (kyoto protocol, 2007) to reduce CO2 emissions amounting to 3 009 002.97 kg CO2 per year or equivalent to CERs worth US $ 30 090.23 / year. d. Base on economic analysis, the energy diversification for self improvement of water quality on downstream side of WTC is feasible to be done. REFERENCES ADB. (2008). ADB Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects. ADB. [2] ADB. (2008). Final Report Wangan Aji micro hydro power project Indonesia. [3] Alan,W, Hodges, & Rahmani, M. (2009). Fuel and carbon dioxide emissions by electric power plants in USA. Gainesville: University of Florida. [4] American Public Health Association (APHA). (1995). Standard methods for the examination of water and wastewater. Washington DC: 19th edition American Public Health Association. [5] Chazaro Gerbanbg Internasional. (2003). A pre feasibility study report for Development of microhydro generation utilizing irrigation channel of Wangan Aji. [6] Creswell, J. W. (2003). Research Design. California: Sage Pub. [7] Directorate General Development of Water Resources Ministry of Public Works of the Republic of Indonesia. (1988). 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New York: John Wiley & Son. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 47 Attachment 1 Calculation table of economic analysis Year Operation Cost Depreciation Tax (Rp) ( Rp ) ( Rp ) (a) (b) Revenue ( Rp ) Gross (c) Analysis ( Rp ) Net (d) Break even point (e) (f) Net Present Value Cost Benefit Ratio (g) (h) 0 0 0 0 0 0 (13.856.928.422) (13.856.928.422) 1 264.000.000 346.423.211 1.485.634.795 5.591.705.859 3.495.647.854 (10.697.453.160) 3.159.475.263 2,00 2 274.005.600 346.423.211 1.482.633.115 5.591.705.859 3.488.643.934 (7.247.862.926) 2.849.910.441 1,99 3 284.390.412 346.423.211 1.479.517.671 5.591.705.859 3.481.374.566 (3.770.676.971) 2.570.470.370 1,97 4 295.168.809 346.423.211 1.476.284.152 5.591.705.859 3.473.829.688 (297.292.470) 2.318.236.054 1,96 5 306.355.707 346.423.211 1.472.928.083 5.591.705.859 3.465.998.859 3.168.659.123 2.090.570.570 1,95 6 317.966.588 346.423.211 1.469.444.818 5.591.705.859 3.457.871.242 6.626.525.348 1.885.091.859 1,93 7 330.017.522 346.423.211 1.465.829.538 5.591.705.859 3.449.435.589 10.075.960.404 1.699.648.140 1,92 8 342.525.186 346.423.211 1.462.077.239 5.591.705.859 3.440.680.224 13.516.640.571 1.532.295.683 1,91 9 355.506.890 346.423.211 1.458.182.728 5.591.705.859 3.431.593.031 16.948.233.596 1.381.278.740 1,89 10 368.980.601 346.423.211 1.454.140.614 5.591.705.859 3.422.161.433 20.370.395.029 1.245.011.395 1,88 11 382.964.966 346.423.211 1.449.945.305 5.591.705.859 3.412.372.378 23.782.767.406 1.122.061.173 1,86 12 397.479.338 346.423.211 1.445.590.993 5.591.705.859 3.402.212.317 27.184.979.724 1.011.134.230 1,85 13 412.543.805 346.423.211 1.441.071.653 5.591.705.859 3.391.667.190 30.576.646.914 911.061.960 1,83 14 428.179.216 346.423.211 1.436.381.030 5.591.705.859 3.380.722.403 33.957.369.317 820.788.908 1,81 15 444.407.208 346.423.211 1.431.512.632 5.591.705.859 3.369.362.809 37.326.732.126 739.361.833 1,80 16 461.250.241 346.423.211 1.426.459.722 5.591.705.859 3.357.572.685 40.684.304.811 665.919.844 1,78 17 478.731.625 346.423.211 1.421.215.307 5.591.705.859 3.345.335.716 44.029.640.527 599.685.467 1,76 18 496.875.554 346.423.211 1.415.772.128 5.591.705.859 3.332.634.966 47.362.275.494 539.956.591 1,74 19 515.707.137 346.423.211 1.410.122.653 5.591.705.859 3.319.452.858 50.681.728.352 486.099.181 1,72 20 535.252.438 346.423.211 1.404.259.063 5.591.705.859 3.305.771.148 53.987.499.500 437.540.695 1,70 21 555.538.505 346.423.211 1.398.173.243 5.591.705.859 3.291.570.900 57.279.070.400 393.764.142 1,68 22 576.593.415 346.423.211 1.391.856.770 5.591.705.859 3.276.832.464 60.555.902.864 354.302.708 1,66 23 598.446.305 346.423.211 1.385.300.903 5.591.705.859 3.261.535.441 63.817.438.305 318.734.900 1,64 24 621.127.420 346.423.211 1.378.496.569 5.591.705.859 3.245.658.660 67.063.096.965 286.680.164 1,62 25 644.668.149 346.423.211 1.371.434.350 5.591.705.859 3.229.180.150 70.292.277.115 257.794.922 1,60 26 669.101.072 346.423.211 1.364.104.473 5.591.705.859 3.212.077.104 73.504.354.218 231.768.990 1,58 27 694.460.003 346.423.211 1.356.496.794 5.591.705.859 3.194.325.852 76.698.680.071 208.322.350 1,56 28 720.780.037 346.423.211 1.348.600.784 5.591.705.859 3.175.901.828 79.874.581.899 187.202.224 1,53 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 48 Attachment 2 Table of Rate of return analysis Depresiation Tax Year Operation Cost ( Rp ) Salary ( Rp ) ( Rp ) Gross Revenue ( Rp ) Tax Net IRR = 20,444823 % per year Present velue analysis(Rp) 0 (a) - (b) - (c) - (d) - (e) - (f) - (g) - (h) (13.856.928.422,40) 1 48.000.000 216.000.000 346.423.211 1.485.634.795 5.591.705.859 4.981.282.649 3.495.647.854 2.796.301.692,49 2 49.819.200 224.186.400 346.423.211 1.482.633.115 5.591.705.859 4.971.277.049 3.488.643.934 2.232.386.280,29 3 51.707.348 232.683.065 346.423.211 1.479.517.671 5.591.705.859 4.960.892.236 3.481.374.566 1.782.049.653,31 4 53.667.056 241.501.753 346.423.211 1.476.284.152 5.591.705.859 4.950.113.840 3.473.829.688 1.422.439.882,03 5 55.701.038 250.654.669 346.423.211 1.472.928.083 5.591.705.859 4.938.926.942 3.465.998.859 1.135.298.758,72 6 57.812.107 260.154.481 346.423.211 1.469.444.818 5.591.705.859 4.927.316.061 3.457.871.242 906.039.047,61 7 60.003.186 270.014.336 346.423.211 1.465.829.538 5.591.705.859 4.915.265.127 3.449.435.589 723.006.973,91 8 62.277.307 280.247.879 346.423.211 1.462.077.239 5.591.705.859 4.902.757.463 3.440.680.224 576.892.784,94 9 64.637.616 290.869.274 346.423.211 1.458.182.728 5.591.705.859 4.889.775.758 3.431.593.031 460.259.671,08 10 67.087.382 301.893.219 346.423.211 1.454.140.614 5.591.705.859 4.876.302.047 3.422.161.433 367.167.293,08 11 69.629.994 313.334.972 346.423.211 1.449.945.305 5.591.705.859 4.862.317.682 3.412.372.378 292.870.927,39 12 72.268.971 325.210.368 346.423.211 1.445.590.993 5.591.705.859 4.847.803.310 3.402.212.317 233.581.050,17 13 75.007.965 337.535.841 346.423.211 1.441.071.653 5.591.705.859 4.832.738.843 3.391.667.190 186.271.226,37 14 77.850.766 350.328.449 346.423.211 1.436.381.030 5.591.705.859 4.817.103.433 3.380.722.403 148.524.604,55 15 80.801.311 363.605.897 346.423.211 1.431.512.632 5.591.705.859 4.800.875.441 3.369.362.809 118.411.264,91 16 83.863.680 377.386.561 346.423.211 1.426.459.722 5.591.705.859 4.784.032.408 3.357.572.685 94.390.223,69 17 87.042.114 391.689.512 346.423.211 1.421.215.307 5.591.705.859 4.766.551.024 3.345.335.716 75.231.141,06 18 90.341.010 406.534.544 346.423.211 1.415.772.128 5.591.705.859 4.748.407.095 3.332.634.966 59.951.773,90 19 93.764.934 421.942.203 346.423.211 1.410.122.653 5.591.705.859 4.729.575.511 3.319.452.858 59.714.636,98 20 97.318.625 437.933.813 346.423.211 1.404.259.063 5.591.705.859 4.710.030.211 3.305.771.148 38.053.952,80 21 101.007.001 454.531.504 346.423.211 1.398.173.243 5.591.705.859 4.689.744.144 3.291.570.900 30.310.043,10 22 104.835.166 471.758.248 346.423.211 1.391.856.770 5.591.705.859 4.668.689.234 3.276.832.464 24.137.591,15 23 108.808.419 489.637.886 346.423.211 1.385.300.903 5.591.705.859 4.646.836.344 3.261.535.441 19.218.440,38 24 112.932.258 508.195.162 346.423.211 1.378.496.569 5.591.705.859 4.624.155.229 3.245.658.660 15.298.724,79 25 117.212.391 527.455.758 346.423.211 1.371.434.350 5.591.705.859 4.600.614.500 3.229.180.150 12.175.898,30 26 121.654.740 547.446.332 346.423.211 1.364.104.473 5.591.705.859 4.576.181.577 3.212.077.104 9.688.377,42 27 126.265.455 568.194.548 346.423.211 1.356.496.794 5.591.705.859 4.550.822.646 3.194.325.852 7.707.271,42 28 131.050.916 589.729.121 346.423.211 1.348.600.784 5.591.705.859 4.524.502.612 3.175.901.828 6.129.779,55 28 136.017.745 612.079.855 346.423.211 1.340.405.515 5.591.705.859 4.497.185.049 3.156.779.534 6.092.871,78 30 141.172.818 635.277.681 346.423.211 1.331.899.645 5.591.705.859 4.468.832.150 3.136.932.505 3.874.321,53 31 146.523.268 659.354.705 346.423.211 1.323.071.403 5.591.705.859 4.439.404.676 3.116.333.273 3.078.865,60 32 152.076.500 684.344.249 346.423.211 1.313.908.570 5.591.705.859 4.408.861.901 3.094.953.330 2.446.004,71 33 157.840.199 710.280.896 346.423.211 1.304.398.466 5.591.705.859 4.377.161.554 3.072.763.088 1.942.623,38 34 163.822.343 737.200.541 346.423.211 1.294.527.929 5.591.705.859 4.344.259.765 3.049.731.835 1.542.330,82 35 170.031.209 765.140.442 346.423.211 1.284.283.299 5.591.705.859 4.310.110.997 3.025.827.698 1.224.098,67 36 176.475.392 794.139.265 346.423.211 1.273.650.398 5.591.705.859 4.274.667.992 3.001.017.594 971.174,17 37 183.163.810 824.237.143 346.423.211 1.262.614.509 5.591.705.859 4.237.881.696 2.975.267.187 770.213,11 38 190.105.718 855.475.731 346.423.211 1.251.160.360 5.591.705.859 4.199.701.200 2.948.540.840 610.588,23 39 197.310.725 887.898.261 346.423.211 1.239.272.099 5.591.705.859 4.160.073.663 2.920.801.564 483.837,68 40 204.788.801 921.549.605 346.423.211 1.226.933.273 5.591.705.859 4.118.944.243 2.892.010.970 383.225,07 697,7 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 49 Attachment 3 www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 50 Basics of Ternary Operations and Ternary Semi groups L.Vijayakumar, V.MadhaviLatha Department of Mathematics, Dr.B.R.Ambedkar University-Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh, INDIA Abstract: In this paper, we define the ternary operations and their properties. These ternary operations are used in the ternary semigroups and in their theorems. We proved some theorems under the certain conditionsof ternary semigroups andequivalent classes are used in the ternary semigroups. We introduce the notion of ideals in ternary semigroupsand their propertiesand in this paper, we generalized the decomposable mapping for sets Keywords:Ternary Operators, ternarysemigroup,permutations, holomorph,Identity of a semigroup, inverse, Abstract coset, zero element, Ideal,bi-quasi ideal,coset,unit element, decomposition mapping. 1. INTRODUCTION: We assume on the part of the reader with the notions of a group, the ternary operation is one-one mapping of an arbitrary set of elements.The ternary operations are result of some Authors into the ternary operation ab-1c in a group.We shall use the multiplicative notation for a group with elements . We shall also use the following convention for multiplication of permutations. Given two one-one transformations then is one-one transformation which is also known as permutation. The properties of the ternary operation in a group are determining all closedsubsets with respect to this operation and the group of permutations of which preserve this operation. Thus, if a ternary operation satisfies these properties in an arbitrary set of elements, then the set may be made into a group that is a unique within isomorphism. In which The first set of properties appears as a weakened formof a set given by Baer. This and an equivalent set completely determine the ternaryfunction as However, by further weakening one of these properties,the group property still holds but the ternary operationis not determined by the group operations. In remaining sections we get a geometric interpretation of the ternary operation and from there we derive simple conditions on pair of elements or vectorsetc. under which they form a group. 2. THE TERNARY OPERATION IN A GROUP: Theorem 2.1. is closed under if and only if is a coset of some subgroup of ; indeed a right (left) coset of . Proof:For s S, where is a subgroup, if and only if is (and indeed equals if and only if is normalized by s), we see that the property of being a coset is intrinsic. Observe that if then and hence . Similarly, implies Definition 2.1. The set of all permutations of G of the form where ‘ ’ is an automorphism of G, is called the holomorph of G, or simply the holomorph. Theorem 2.2.The group of all permutations which preserve the ternary operation is the holomorph Proof: A permutation T preserves the ternary operation, We know that, if and only if The group property follows from the general theorem that the set of all automorphisms of any algebra form a group and the set is exactly that of the automorphisms with respect to the ternary operation. 3. PROPERTIES OF TERNARY OPERATIONS: We observe, as stated in the introduction, that we may consider the properties given below as a group under the ternary operation. The first set is interesting, considered as properties for a group, because it www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 51 does not (explicitly) require the existence of either the identity or the inverse. The other sets require only the existence of an identity. An analogous situation is that of generalized groups defined by the use of an n-ary function. However, the properties given below seem to be the simplest for the general case.We assume, unless otherwise stated, that the systems defined below are closed with respect to and they contain all elements under discussion. Definition 3.1. Let the following be a set of elements on which there is defined a ternary operation satisfying And also we call it is an abstract coset. We shall not use these postulates directly but use a weakened yet equivalent set given below. II. Theorem 3.1. If and is a set satisfying above (II) and we define then becomes a group Proof.:Closureis obvious. In (II) take then we get the associative law . In II(ii)(a) take and we get the associative law . By definition, it follows that is a right identity. For a given , choose . Then . It follows that group under the binary operationand hence is a left identity also, that is, for all is a Finally,by above Result 1:The above equations(I) and (II) are equivalent. Proof: It is clear. Thus we see that if satisfies (I), we may choose any element in and define a group , as its identity, and as its law of composition. However, the following result shows thatwe get essentially the same group no matter which element we choosefor the identity. Result 2:The groups are isomorphic for all in , an abstractcoset. Moreover, Remark: may thus be considered either as a group or as an abstract coset. We could define the holomorph of an abstract coset as the group of all permutations preserving the ternary operation .This evidently coincides with the holomorph of . 4. TERNARY SEMIGROUP Definition 4.1.A ternary semigroup is an algebraic structure such that is a nonempty set and is a ternary operation satisfying the following associative law Let be a subset of a set A and for any . The equation holds then is a ternary operation on the set It is said to be restriction off to Example 4.1: ={-i,0,i} is a ternary semigroup under multiplication over complex numbers. However is not an ordinarysemigroup under the usual multiplication of complex numbers because (-i)(i) = 1 . Z is a ternary semigroup but not a semigroup under the multiplication over integers. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 52 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 , , , , , is a ternary semigroup under Example 4.2:Let A 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 multiplication Definition 4.2:An element ‘ ’ in a ternary semigroup X is called Regular, if there exists elements such that . A Ternary semigroup is regular if every element of is regular. Definition 4.3: A ternary semigroup is called an ordered ternary semigroup if there is an ordered relation on such that a b a a1 a 2 ba1 a 2 , a1aa2 a1ba2 , a1a2 a a1a2 b, a, b, a1 , a 2 A Definition 4.4:An element ‘ e ’ of a ternary semigroup A is called (i) Left identity ( left unital) element if eex x for all x A (ii) Right identity (right unital) element of xee x for all x A (iii) A Lateral identity (Lateral unital ) element if exe x for all x A (iv) A two – sided identity (bi-unital) element if eex xee x for all x A Example 4.3:LetZ- be the set of all non-positive integers then with the usual ternary ⊆multiplication Z- forms a ternary semigroup with zero element ‘0’ and identity element ‘1’ Definition 4.5: A is said to be simple ternary semigroup if A has no ideal than trivial ideal in itself. Definition 4.6: Let be a ternary semigroup if there exists an element’0’ Asuch that 0 x x and 0 xy x0 y 0x, y A then '0' is called zero element or simply the zero of the ternary semigroupA.In this, we say that is a ternary semiring with zero, so every lateral idealof contains a zero element. A ternarysemigroup ‘ ’ without zero is called lateral simple if it has no proper lateral ideals. A ternary semigroup ‘ ’ with zero is called lateral 0-simple if it has no nonzero proper lateral ideals and[ ] {0}. A lateral ideal M of a ternary semigroup without zero is called a minimal lateral ideal of if there is no a lateral ideal of such that . Equivalently, if for any lateral ideal of suchthat ⊆ , we have . A nonzero lateral ideal M of a ternarysemigroup with zero is called a 0-minimal lateral ideal of if there is no nonzero lateral ideal of such that . Equivalently, iffor any nonzero lateral ideal of such that ⊆ , we have .Equivalently, if for any lateral ideal of such that , we have . A proper lateral ideal M of a ternary semigroup is called amaximal lateral ideal of if for any lateral ideal of such that ,we have . Equivalently, if for any proper lateral ideal of suchthat ⊆ , we have . Definition 4.7: A non-empty subset Q of a ternary semigroup is said to be Quasi-ideal of T if AAQ AQA AAQA QAA Q Definition 4.8: A ternary Semigroup A, f is said to be a ternary group if it has an addition property that for all a, b, c in A there exists unique x, y, z in A such that xab c, ayb c, abz c . Definition 4.9:An idempotent e is said to be an identity of a ternary group A , if for all in A there exists an unique element e in A such that eaa a, aea a, aae a Definition 4.10:If for all a in A there exists a unique element xaa e, axa e, aax e then x is called the inverse of a in A . www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 x in A such that Page 53 Definition 4.11:An element x0 A is said to be a left zero of a ternary semigroup A, f if f x0 , x1 , x2 x0 x1 , x2 A Result 1: Let A, f and A1 , f 1 be two ternary semigroups. A mapping h : A A is called a homomorphism of A, f into A1 , f 1 if h f a1 , a2 , a3 f 1 ha1 ha2 ha3 Forany A one-one onto homomorphism is said to be an isomorphism. 1 Example4.4 : Let A be a non-empty set and for any put is a ternary semigroup and the mappingf defined in this way is said to be trival. If X,Y are any two non-empty sets, define then A, f for any in XxYthen (XxY,o) is a ternary semigroup with the trival operation. Result 2: For any non-empty subset of A is the smallest lateral ideal of . A , containing and for any Theorem 4.1:If A is a non-empty subset of equivalent. 1) A is lateral simple 2) and it has no zero elements then the following are 5. DECOMPOSABLE MAPPING: Let be any four non-empty sets, f is a mapping from into the set . Suppose there exists a mapping of into and mapping of into such that holds for any then the mapping f is said to be decomposiable . The mapping are called components off. We write . Here where and and hence , the components of f are defined in a unique way. Theorem 5.1:Let be sets and and . Proof:Let . By the definition of Decomposable, we get By Hypothesis, we have Then we get and if then . Theorem 5.2: Let be non-empty sets, f a mapping of the sets into if then 2′ = ′. Remark 1: Let be any four non-empty sets, f is a mapping from into the set is a decomposable if and only if there exists a bijection of into and bijection of into such that . References [1]Cf.baer, op. cit.p.Satz 3,11 (part 3), Cf. Zassenhaus, op.cit. p.46 [2]R.chinram, and S.Saelee.fuzzy ideals and Fuzzy filters of ordered Ternary semigroups, journal of mathematics research. Vol2.No.1(2010) [3]S.kar. on quasi-ideals and bi-ideals in ternaysemigroups, Int. J. www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 02, Number: 02, December-2012 Page 54 Math.Math.Sci.18(2005) 3015-3023 [4]AntoniChronowski, On ternary semigroups of lattice homomorphisma, quasigroups and related systems, 3 (1996), 55-72. [5]F.M.Sioson: Ideal Theory in ternary semigroups, math. Japan.10(1965), 63-84 [6]D. H. Lehmer, A ternary analogue of abelian groups, Am. J. Math. 54 (1932),329–338. [7]F. M. Sioson, Ideal theory in ternary semigroups, Math. Jap. 10 (1965), 63–84. [8]M. Arslanov, N. 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