1. business and industrial
2. company
3. earnings

Equity Research
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
MORNING HIGHLIGHT
Key Index
FROM RESEARCH
Market Outlook: Back to a forward-looking focus
(OVERWEIGHT)
Indonesia’s equity market has been on a rollercoaster ride with the index
reaching a record high of 5,523 in early April before falling back to the
5,100 level at the end of the month. YTD, Indonesia is the worst-performing
market in the region, down 2.7% YTD and by an even worse 7.2% if IDR
depreciation is taken into account. Investor concerns mainly center on: 1.
Disappointing 1Q15 results; 2. Weak 1Q15 GDP figures - which would open
up the possibility of the government revising down its 2015 economic
growth target of 5.7%; 3. A potential rift in international relations given the
Indonesian government’s firm decision to go ahead with the executions of
a number of inmates convicted of serious drugs offenses, all of whom but
one were foreigners and 4. Weak realization of government spending this
year, as seen in the lower-than-targeted tax collection in 1Q15.
Close
As we adjust our 2015 numbers to reflect more on the weak 1Q15 result,
we cut our 2015 forecast by some 6%, followed by lower margins
expectations. Valuation wise, we also trim several of our SOTP multiples, to
reflect the cyclicality nature of the segments and more intense
competition, and enlarge our discount factor to 20%. This results in our
target price to form into Rp8,050 – 18.5x 2015PE, at some 32% discount to
ICBP. We continue to like INDF for its cheap valuation, and the stock
remains a BUY.
Nippon Indosari: Slower growth but upside remains
(ROTI IJ. Rp 1,105. HOLD. TP Rp 1,200)
Given softer wheat prices, whilst also taking into account the new bonds
issuance, we raise our 2015-16 bottom line estimates by around 31-47%.
Using our new numbers, ROTI is trading at 21x 2015PE, or slightly below
1SD from its 5-year mean. We value ROTI at 22.8x, 1SD below its mean, to
capture the risks to growth. This translates into a Rp1,200 Target Price,
providing 8.6% upside potential. We rate the stock a HOLD.
Vol
(%)
(US$ m)
378
5,141
1.1
(1.6)
Thailand
1,527
0.3
1.9
-
Philippines
7,816
1.3
8.1
193
Malaysia
1,818
(1.3)
3.2
526
Singapore
3,483
(0.1)
3.5
770
Regional
China
4,480
0.9
38.5
124,973
Hong Kong
28,124
(0.0)
19.1
20,391
Japan
19,532
0.1
11.9
13,876
Korea
2,132
0.2
11.3
5,715
Taiwan
9,845
0.3
5.8
3,204
27,491
1.8
(0.0)
486
5,017
0.2
5.9
66,031
18,070
0.3
1.4
7,640
India
Dow Jones
(INDF IJ. Rp 6,875. BUY. TP Rp 8,050)
Ytd
(%)
Asean - 5
Indonesia
NASDAQ
Indofood Sukses Makmur: Too cheap to ignore
Chg
Currency and Interest Rate
w-w
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
12,987
(0.0)
(0.2)
(4.8)
6.67
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.6)
7.79
0.0
0.4
(0.0)
Rate
Rupiah
(Rp/1US$)
SBI rate
(%)
10-y Govt Indo bond
Hard Commodities
Unit
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
(27.0)
Coal
US$/ton
62
n/a
(0.6)
Gold
US$/toz
1,189
0.0
(1.2)
0.3
Nickel
US$/mt.ton
13,709
(1.5)
5.6
(9.1)
Tin
US$/mt.ton
15,966
(0.2)
(4.6)
(17.8)
Soft Commodities
Unit
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
Cocoa
US$/mt.ton
2,987
(0.1)
8.6
4.5
MARKET NEWS
Corn
US$/mt.ton
136
(1.0)
(6.5)
(15.0)
Crude Oil
US$/barrel
*Analysts’ comment inside
Palm oil
MYR/mt.ton



Rubber
Pulp
Dam construction will be accelerated in June 2015 (BI)
Sinarmas’ Puradelta Aims to Pocket Up to Rp3.8tn from IPO (TJP)
Waskita Get Green Light for Legundi-Bunder Toll Road (BI)
IDX ANNOUNCEMENT
66
(0.0)
20.9
15.9
2,071
(1.0)
(4.2)
(19.5)
USd/kg
155
5.2
9.6
1.7
US$/tonne
856
n/a
(2.8)
(5.6)
Coffee
US$/60kgbag
131
(0.4)
(4.0)
33.6
Sugar
US$/MT
373
0.0
1.7
(4.6)
Wheat
US$/mt.ton
174
(0.3)
-
(20.9)
Cash Announcement
Code
Ex-Date
Date Payable
Amount (Rp)
PGAS
WTON
KAEF
ACST
Source: KSEI
14-Apr-15
15-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
8-May-15
5-May-15
8-May-15
4-May-15
144.84
11.82
8.45
42.00
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Source: Bloomberg
Equity Research
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14
Jakarta 10110
Indonesia
Tel
(62 21) 29 555 777
Fax
(62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team
Agriculture
Automotive
Auto Component
Banking
Cement
Coal
Construction
Consumer
Heavy Equipment
Media
Metal Mining
Pharmaceutical
Property
Retail
Strategy
Telecommunication
Transportation
Utilities
Research Associate
Helmy Kristanto
Helmy Kristanto
Joko Sogie
Eka Savitri
Helmy Kristanto
Stefanus Darmagiri
Joko Sogie
Jennifer Frederika Yapply
Stefanus Darmagiri
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Stefanus Darmagiri
Armando Marulitua
Anindya Saraswati
Anindya Saraswati
Helmy Kristanto
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Joko Sogie
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Puti Adani
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Sales team
Ermawati A. Erman
Asfarita Andalusia
Novrita E. Putrianti
Ehrliech Suhartono
Yunita L. Nababan
Bram Taarea
Martin Joshua
Laksmita Armandani
Muhammad Hardiansyah
Tuty Sutopo
Upik Yuzarni
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3134
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3128
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3132
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3145
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3127
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3126
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3125
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3109
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3121
(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3137
(62-21) 2955 824
(62-21) 2955 824
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3509
(62-21) 2955 824
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3508
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3530
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3503
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3506
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3506
(62-21) 2955 824
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3512
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3520
(62-21) 29555 888 ext.3511
Tuesday, 5 May 2015
OVERWEIGHT
Foreign fund flow
2015 Ytd Regional Performance
Market Outlook
Back to a forward-looking focus
A volatile period
Indonesia’s equity market has been on a rollercoaster ride with the index reaching a record high of
5,523 in early April before falling back to the 5,100 level at the end of the month. YTD, Indonesia is
the worst-performing market in the region, down 2.7% YTD and by an even worse 7.2% if IDR
depreciation is taken into account. Investor concerns mainly center on: 1. Disappointing 1Q15
results; 2. Weak 1Q15 GDP figures - which would open up the possibility of the government
revising down its 2015 economic growth target of 5.7%; 3. A potential rift in international relations
given the Indonesian government’s firm decision to go ahead with the executions of a number of
inmates convicted of serious drugs offenses, all of whom but one were foreigners and 4. Weak
realization of government spending this year, as seen in the lower-than-targeted tax collection in
1Q15.
In our view, the release of disappointing 1Q15 results accounted for most of the losses, badly
denting investor confidence - as seen in the massive IDR7.1tn of outflows in the last week of April
when most companies announced their results. But these concerns have now largely evaporated,
in our view, and the weak corporate results are mostly reflected in the share prices. Furthermore,
we don’t expect a major negative surprise on the market from the announcement of the 1Q15
GDP figure, as a weak number is essentially implied by the weak corporate results. With these
concerns out of the way, we believe that investors will be more likely to refocus on what are the
positive elements in Indonesia’s LT story.
Indonesia’s transformation story remains valid
Our thesis of Indonesia’s transformation remains alive, a story which we expect to unfold on the
back of the new government’s efforts to allocate more resources to productive sectors – mainly in
a bid to lessen the problems of dis-connectivity across the country. In our view, the government
will press ahead with its plans, although delays should still be expected. While weak tax collection
might pose a risk, we don’t think it will be enough to derail the huge expected increase in
government spending this year, especially given the government’s front loading strategy on bond
issuances - similar to last year – with IDR170.2tn secured in 1Q15 and which already accounts for
38% of the full year target of IDR451.8tn. These funds will be crucial to kick start this year’s
infrastructure development. At the same time, we also note that the government has already
made some progress on infrastructure development, although arguably not enough to entirely
sooth demands for evidence of further progress.
2015 Ytd Sector Performance
Helmy Kristanto
(62-21) 2955 5824
h elm yk@d an ar eksa.co m
1Q15: a weak quarter with many corporates delivered below than expected results
In regard to the 1Q15 results, there are 45 companies under our coverage that have released their
results so far. Most of the results have disappointed, whilst only a handful of companies have
managed to deliver better-than-expected bottom lines: ICBP, SILO, ROTI, ADRO, UNTR and BBTN
among them. In general, consumers and healthcare stocks still showed resiliency, whereas the
results of banks, property and construction stocks were mostly inline with expectations, although,
for banking stocks, there were signs of weakness especially in regard to NPLs. By contrast, the
autos, cement, commodities, retail and telco stocks reported weaker-than-expected performance
in 1Q15. All in all, the 1Q15 results only reached 20.8% of our full year forecasts.
What to expect in 2Q15; maintain our year-end index target of 5,900
With the 1Q15 corporate results season now behind us, attention will shift back to macro
developments, which, in some part at least, have been showing encouraging improvements since
the beginning of the year. With the huge trade surplus in 1Q15 of USD2.4b, the CAD figures should
be more favorable, a catalyst to revive the ailing currency. While 1Q15 GDP growth will likely be
on the weak side, 2Q15 should show better performance, not only thanks to better business
seasonality than in 1Q but also due to the surge in demand in the period leading up to Ramadan in
mid-July. This should help underpin demand growth in late-2Q15. More progress on infrastructure
development can also be expected, especially regarding the awarding of infrastructure contracts
to construction firms – another development likely to help bolster investor confidence. In our
view, the possibility of more relaxation in the currently tight-biased monetary policy of the central
bank is still wide open, especially in efforts to support economic growth acceleration.
Armando Marulitua
(62-21) 2955 5817
ar m an d o m @d an ar eksa.co m
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First Call
Direct and Bloomberg.
From the recent peak of the market in early April, most sectors have seen considerable weakness,
with only the consumer, trade& services and property sector have still outperformed the market.
From the list of the worst performers, some stocks stand out and look attractive post the sell-off:
ASII (down 16%), BSDE (down 15%), WIKA (down 14.5%), INCO (down 13.6%), JSMR (down 13%),
and BBRI (down 11.8%). We continue to maintain our 5,900 year-end index target on the JCI.
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 1. Sector 1Q15 result summary and 2Q15 outlook
Sectors
Banks
Cement
Toll Road
Construction
Consumer
Healthcare
Coal Mining
Metal
Mining
Result Summary
Our banking universe posted relatively inline in both Net Interest Income (NII) and net profit level in 1Q15, accounted for
23.3% and 22.6% of our FY15 forecast. In general, margin can be maintained at a relatively healthy level, yet BBRI and
BMRI experienced compressed NIM due to the high YoY growth in TD (41.6% and 30.3%, respectively). Loans itself still
grew at relatively low level ranging, between 5.8% for BBCA and 16.9% for BBTN in March 2015. While gross NPLs thick up
across the board given the slowdown in the country’s economic activity. For banks under our coverage, in net profit level
BBTN booked 29.6% while BBCA at 21.2% of our FY15 forecast in 1Q15. We thus expect the banks will perform better in
2Q15 supported by higher disbursement on government’s projects and better liquidity condition.
Cement demand has been relative weak since the beginning of the year, in contrast with the expected improvement
underpinned by better property demand and more government projects. 1Q15 domestic cement sales only reached
13.6m tonnes, down 3.2% y-y, which affected performance of the top 3 large cement company. In term of sales volume,
Semen Indonesia fare better, especially as it has been able to maintain its sales performance, unlike Indocement and
Holcim Indonesia which saw 7-8% volume decline. On cost management, however, Indocement showed stellar
performance on cost reduction, which enable them to improve their margins, something that was missed on Semen
Indonesia and Holcim's 1Q15 results. Cement demand is expected to slightly improve in 2Q, before make a more
meaningful recuperation in 2H this year.
JSMR’s 1Q15 result is inline with market expectation, yet some investors worried on company’s higher opex. In our view,
the toll traffic characteristics still very resilient amidst the slowing domestic economy as seen in JSMR traffic figures. We
estimate the average traffic to reach 3.65-3.70mn vehicles/day in 2Q15F (+2-3%q-q), in accordance with better traffic flow
from the out-of-Greater Jakarta sections. Moreover, EBITDA level should also be maintain at the same level as in 1Q15
around 52% given company’s expansion pipeline. At the bottom line, heavy interest costs and high tax rate will continue
to pressure JSMR’s bottom line.
The 1Q15 results from the state-contractors mostly still reflected last year’s backlog project with the government portion
still very minimal. Among the names, WSKT and PTPP posted good result as we had expected thanks to its special projects.
Meanwhile, ADHI declining growth is also within expectation given its low carry-over projects. WIKA is the only one that
missed expectation, mainly dragged down by WTON’s disappointing result. Consequently, we view WIKA has the strong
chance to get earnings downgraded by the market in the near-term. In sum, total revenues from the four-listed statecontractors only reached Rp6.6tn in 1Q15, down 9%y-y. For 2Q15F, we don’t see much structural changes, means WSKT
and PTPP will continue to outperform the industry growth. Yet, better new contracts stream in 2Q15F should be well
expected given the timeline of government’s project awarding season that estimated to start in late-May 2015.
Consumer companies under our coverage booked slower growth YoY, but margins expanded in most of the cases. While
we note that the slowdown is seen across the FMCG industry sales volumes, we see that ASP hike, which has been
implemented in 4Q14 and/or 1Q15 has become the main growth engine in 1Q15. Staple, basic need goods are most
resilient in such cases, with more indulgence goods having lower sales volume. Coupled with softer commodities prices
and less volatility in USD/IDR rate, margins expansions are inevitable. Going forward, while we expect commodities prices
to remain subdued, slower growth is inevitable, which we should note in consumer companies across the board.
Healthcare sector has proven its defensive characteristics amidst bleak macroeconomic condition as all companies under
our coverage have managed to book positive y-y revenues as well as earnings growth in 1Q15. Kimia Farma (KAEF IJ) was
the best performance within our coverage with 88% net profit growth in 1Q15, followed by Siloam Hospital (SILO IJ) with
28.5%-41.3% net profit-EBITDA growth. Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ), however, reported a slightly disappointing result with only
7.2% net profit growth. We remain positive on the sector overall, given that the demand for healthcare will stay lucrative.
However, following a persistent rupiah weakening until April 2015, we remain cautious on its impact to pharmaceutical
companies’ margin, thus slight margin contraction could happen, in our view. All in all, we expect better topline delivery in
2Q15 for pharmaceuticals on stronger seasonality and higher ASP (as pharmaceutical company usually raise its ASP in 2Q).
This should support better earnings in 2Q15. Meanwhile, Siloam should continue to perform well in 2Q15, in our view.
This is underpinned by solid performance on its developing hospital.
The weak coal prices reflected on lower net profit for coal mining under our coverage for 1Q15. While PTBA’s net profit
was below our expectation as a result of higher stripping ratio, the company tends to be the best performance in our
coverage with net profit to decline by 36% yoy as the company is the only coal mining companies under our coverage
were managed to increase its coal sales volume by 9% yoy. ADRO reported better than expected on the result mainly due
to lower stripping ratio. Still, its net profit declined 54% yoy. The worst performance was Harum Energy (HRUM) with net
profit declined by 84% yoy as the company was scaling down its production in order to sustain its coal reserves. Going into
2Q15, in overall, with global oversupply of coal to persist, we believe coal price to remain weak. However, with the
expectation that PTBA to lower stripping ratio from 5.5x in 1Q15 to 4.8 – 4.9x in 2015, we can infer that the company to
lower stripping ratio in the upcoming quarters which will lower cash cost of production further. In contrary, ADRO is
expected to increase its stripping ratio as it will enter into dry seasons. This, we believe, will increase the cash cost of
production further.
The metal mining companies under our coverage, reported lower-than-expected on the results mainly attributable to
weak commodity price, such as tin price and lower-than-expected on the nickel prices. Despite lower sales volume by 7%
yoy, Vale Indonesia (INCO) considered as the best performance in the sector with net profit increased by 39% yoy in 1Q15.
This was mainly attributable to a slump in the crude oil price to lower the energy prices. Moreover, ANTM reported an
improvement in at operating level due to strong sales from gold and save from energy cost. But, due to forex loss, ANTM
still reported a net loss in 1Q15, but at lower level. Timah (TINS) was the worst performance in the metal mining
companies as it posted a net loss in 1Q15 due to higher tin ore costs. Going 2Q15, we believe performance of metal
mining companies to remain weak given unfavorable commodity prices. But, the continuation in a slump in the crude oil
prices is expected to cushion the further decline on the companies’ financial performance.
2
5 May 2015
Plantation
Property
Oil and Gas
Retail
Weekly Report
Weak demand coupled with slow production seasonalitly had put a major pressure on CPO sector in 1Q15. With low
production seasonilty, there were upward pressure on production cost per tonne basis, and without any CPO price
improvement, put a double whammy on plantation companies profitability in 1Q15. Most plantation companies under our
coverage saw a massive decline on its bottom line, with margin even goes down below the level of commodity price melt
down in 2H08. Astra Agro, which known for its stellar management team, also can not find an escape from this situation,
with its profit tumble to be similar with the level in 2005-06. CPO price continue to drifted lower to below
MYR2,160/tonne in 2Q, lower than average of MYR2,265/tonne in 1Q15 which suggest that the sector might still need to
experience difficulties. Government more stringent implementation on biodiesel will become the catalyst, although the
execution risk are still running very high at current stage.
For property companies under our coverage, only three companies (ASRI, LPKR, MTLA) that have been published the 1Q15
result, as BSDE and SSIA is currently doing the limited review for bonds issuance. The overall sector result was relatively
inline with our forecast. In the operating level, ASRI posted an outstanding result which was well above our expectation,
net profit jumped by 95.6% yoy. This was thanks to the revenue recognition from the land sales, which generated
significant higher margins compare to other business segment. However, ASRI got pressure on the Rp250 bn forex loss,
which has brought down its net margin. On the other hand, LPKR’s 1Q15 result was inline with our forecast both on the
topline and bottom line. For the following quarter, we expect the overall property companies’ performance to be
relatively inline with expectation. Note that bottom line might be volatile for companies which have big portion of USD
debt in the balance sheet.
Gas utilities suffered a decline in distribution volume due to weak demand from PLN, itself a consequence of slowing
economic growth. Gas is particularly susceptible among fuels given gas power plants primarily serve as peaking power
plant, thus will be first in line to be shut down when electricity demand softens. In addition, weak economy also caused
industry to stop using higher-priced excess-quota gas supply, causing overall gas ASP to contract. Against this backdrop,
PGN reported a very weak result, with revenue, EBITDA, and net profit all declined. For the first time, the company
admitted that the 9% YoY decline in gas distribution volume was caused by demand issue, not supply like in the past.
Retail companies under our coverage posted the weak result in 1Q15. The slowing down in demand, as a result of lower
customer purchasing power, has translated into average topline growth of only 3.5% yoy in 1Q15. Although booked a
negative growth in the bottom line, ACES’s 1Q15 result was still inline with our forecast. As we have expected the margin
normalization since company booked higher margin in 2014 (after price increase at the end of 2013). The worst performer
among our coverage was RALS, net profit was dropped by 85.6% yoy, as a result of lower gross margins from both outright
and consignment product as well as higher operating expenses. Going forward, the performance in 2Q15 should be better
considering the seasonality, as we will start the festive season (Ramadhan) in mid-June. However, we don’t expect
significant profitability improvement in the near term.
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
3
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 2. 1Q15 Result Wrap
Revenue (Rp bn)
Actual
ANTM
TCID
Result
Estimate (FY15) YoY Growth (%)
2,867
Net Profit (Rp bn)
A/F
Actual
Result
Estimate (FY15) YoY Growth (%)
10,129
(21)
28.3
ADRO
701
1,996
A/F
(48)
35.1
654
2,574
11
25.4
SILO
35
102
30
34.3
23,616
96,111
11
24.6
ROTI
67
203
(0)
33.1
BBNI (NII)
6,097
25,115
15
24.3
BBTN
402
1,357
18
29.6
UNVR
9,413
38,915
8
24.2
UNTR
1,636
5,544
4
29.5
ICBP
7,968
33,096
8
24.1
ICBP
797
2,974
16
26.8
BMRI (NII)
10,945
45,736
22
23.9
LPKR
417
1,565
23
26.6
BBTN (NII)
1,554
6,502
8
23.9
TCID
62
236
(1)
26.4
12,648
52,925
(9)
23.9
UNVR
1,592
6,091
17
26.1
BBCA (NII)
8,500
35,733
12
23.8
TLKM
3,814
15,554
5
24.5
PTBA
3,277
13,851
6
23.7
BMRI
5,138
22,087
4
23.3
ADRO
8,447
35,774
(4)
23.6
BBNI
2,817
12,142
18
23.2
519
2,249
16
23.1
BBRI
6,147
27,391
4
22.4
SMGR
6,340
27,595
3
23.0
ASRI
280
1,254
(10)
22.3
LPKR
2,384
10,444
19
22.8
BTPN
487
2,228
(1)
21.9
JSMR
1,657
7,329
9
22.6
INDF
870
4,057
(37)
21.4
MAPI
2,965
13,145
11
22.6
KLBF
529
2,481
7
21.3
991
4,423
14
22.4
BBCA
4,063
19,127
11
21.2
BTPN (NII)
1,845
8,250
6
22.4
JSMR
330
1,600
(12)
20.6
BBRI (NII)
13,488
61,090
9
22.1
ACES
126
615
(8)
20.5
INDF
15,021
68,801
(0)
21.8
MTLA
59
290
9
20.3
PGAS
8,274
38,191
(13)
21.7
SMGR
1,190
5,861
(9)
20.3
ACES
1,108
5,115
3
21.7
INTP
1,146
5,741
1
20.0
KLBF
4,247
20,469
4
20.7
PTBA
340
1,746
(37)
19.5
BIRD
1,284
6,229
17
20.6
BIRD
223
1,253
2
17.8
SILO
976
4,791
30
20.4
PGAS
1,300
7,465
(38)
17.4
TINS
1,356
6,680
10
20.3
KAEF
44
258
91
17.1
597
2,946
(5)
20.3
HRUM
20
120
(82)
16.8
45,187
224,744
(9)
20.1
ASII
3,992
23,978
(16)
16.6
SMCB
2,250
11,510
(4)
19.5
SMSM
75
465
(11)
16.1
INCO
2,519
12,891
13
19.5
LSIP
153
1,055
(32)
14.5
KAEF
1,015
5,198
17
19.5
PTPP
94
694
54
13.5
AALI
3,233
16,618
(13)
19.5
INCO
297
2,400
58
12.4
INTP
4,328
22,521
(4)
19.2
WIKA
62
843
(63)
7.4
RALS
1,492
7,894
(3)
18.9
AALI
156
2,770
(80)
5.6
MTLA
223
1,205
4
18.5
WTON
17
396
(79)
4.3
LSIP
888
4,937
(31)
18.0
SIMP
47
1,221
(75)
3.8
SIMP
2,659
15,364
(16)
17.3
SGRO
17
464
(69)
3.7
SGRO
527
3,441
(19)
15.3
SMCB
33
923
(90)
3.6
HRUM
886
5,936
(34)
14.9
MAPI
12
352
(74)
3.4
WIKA
2,005
16,504
(28)
12.1
ADHI
11
399
(31)
2.8
ADHI
1,241
10,610
(14)
11.7
WSKT
12
646
71
1.9
PTPP
1,982
17,203
(1)
11.5
RALS
6
409
(85)
1.5
WSKT
1,403
13,209
36
10.6
TINS
(19)
651
(120)
-2.9
428
4,085
(47)
10.5
ANTM
231,304
1,078,077
2
21.5
Overall 1Q15 Result
TLKM
UNTR
ROTI
ASRI
SMSM
ASII
WTON
Overall 1Q15 Result
(240)
39,357
44
189,048
14
(6.2)
-545.5
20.8
Source: Company, Danareksa Sekuritas
4
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 3. Companies 1Q15 result summary
Company
Title
Short Description
Astra
International
Difficult time
Selamat
Sempurna
Discerning decline
in export market
BCA
Cautious
management
approach
Bank Negara
Indonesia
Moderate growth
but concerns on
assets quality
emerges
Bank Rakyat
Indonesia
Maintain focus on
micro
Bank
Tabungan
Negara
Making steady
progress
Bank Mandiri
Concern on assets
quality
improvement
Astra reported weak 1Q15 net profit of Rp4.0t, down 16% y-y. ASII auto business continues to
show deterioration, pressured by intense competitive landscape, weak demand environment and
rising cost on weakening of IDR. Unlike last year, Astra’s commodity arm also showed moderation
in growth, especially on Astra Agro which saw its profit down 80% y-y. In our view, weak results
would further disappoint market, and we maintain our HOLD recommendation with TP IDR8,300.
Since our downgrade in March, Astra has underperformed market by 2%.
SMSM’s 1Q15 result was dragged down by some issues in the export sales destinations which
should have been the key driver for growth given remaining challenges within the domestic
market. Taking seasonality into account, SMSM’s 1Q15 result is below market expectation. In
1Q15, net profits slid 10%y-y to Rp75bn on the back of 5%y-y decline in revenues and higher
opex. Filter products sales decline 8%y-y mainly driven by the 7%y-y decline in the export market
as its main contribution. In the meantime, we stick with our figures with expectation of better
performance in 2H15F from the export sales recovery. Maintain BUY.
BBCA posted net Interest Income of IDR8.5 tn in 1Q15. This figure is inline with our forecast
(23.8% of our full year estimate). Nonetheless, other operating income only grew by 19.9% YoY to
IDR2.5 tn, weaker than our expectation. Meanwhile the operating expenses grew significantly by
21.9% YoY to IDR5.7 tn in 1Q15 due to higher personnel expenses that grew 23.6% YoY to IDR3.4
tn. Hence PPOP of IDR5.2 tn is below our expectation, represents 19.7% of our FY15 forecast. Yet
with provisions of only IDR94 bn in 1Q15 (-72.5% YoY), at the bottom line BBCA recorded net
profits of IDR4.1 tn, reaching 21.2% of our full year forecast. We maintain our HOLD call with a
Target Price of IDR14,050, implying PBV 2015-16F of 3.7-3.1x.
BBNI posted Net Interest Income (NII) of IDR6.1 tn in 1Q15, in-line with our full year forecast of
IDR25.1 tn. Interest expenses grew 24.7% to IDR2.8 tn. Even so, the NIM still expanded to 6.5% in
1Q15 as the yield on Earning Assets rose by 100 bps while the blended CoF only increased by 70
bps compared to 1Q14. Operating expenses, meanwhile, grew 22.7% to IDR4.2 tn as underwriting
insurance expenses surged 74.8% YoY to IDR616 bn. At the bottom line, the bank posted net
profits of IDR2.8 tn in 1Q15, still in-line, reaching 23.2% of our FY15 forecast. For the time being,
we keep our Target Price unchanged at IDR7,450, implying PBV of 2.0-1.8x for 2015-16F.
1Q15 result came inline with our expectation with top line (interest income) and bottom line
reached 23.1% and 22.4% of our FY15 forecast. Net Interest Income (NII) of IDR13.5 tn in 1Q15
inline with our FY15 forecast of IDR61.1 tn. Other operating income, at the same time, grew
impressively 52.2% YoY in 1Q15 backed by 40.7% YoY growth in fee-based income. While
operating expenses grew 16.6% YoY to IDR7.4 tn, relatively under control in our opinion. At the
bottom line, BBRI posted net profits of IDR6.1 tn, reaching 22.4% of our FY15 forecast. Margin
compressed to 7.6% in 1Q15 as TD grew significantly by 41.6% YoY in March 2015 to IDR301.0 tn
as of March 2015. We thus maintain our BUY call with Target Price of IDR13,800 implying PBV 2.82.3x for 2015-16F and remains as our top pick.
BBTN posted Net Interest Income (NII) of IDR1.5 tn in 1Q15, or reaching 23.9% of our full year
forecast of IDR6.5 tn – i.e. inline. The 1Q15 PPOP of IDR747 bn was slightly above our FY15
forecast, however, thanks to operating expenses that only grew 11.4% YoY in 1Q15 to IDR1.0 tn
(reaching 22.5% of our full year forecast). As a result, BBTN posted net profits of IDR402 bn,
reaching 29.6% of our full year forecast of IDR1.35 tn. Gross NPLs were relatively flat at 4.78% as
of March 2015 compared to 4.74% as of March 2014 - as expected. Going forward, we expect the
gross NPLs to gradually improve to 3.7% by December 2015F. For the time being, we maintain our
BUY call with a Target Price of IDR1,400, implying PBV of 1.1-1.0x for 2015-16F.
BMRI posted Net Interest Income of IDR10.9 tn in 1Q15, up by a relatively strong figure of 21.9%
YoY. Such figure is in-line with our forecast of IDR45.7 tn. However, at the other operating
income, BMRI posted -5.7%% YoY growth due to slower growth in wholesale banking transaction
as the syndication fees dropped by -70.8% YoY to IDR7 bn from IDR42 bn in 1Q14. Meanwhile,
operating expenses grew at a moderate level of 19.8% YoY to IDR6.4 tn in 1Q15. At the bottom
line, BMRI recorded IDR5.1 tn of net profits in 1Q15, of which still within our expectations,
represents 23.3% of our FY15 forecast and 22.8% of consensus forecast. For the time being we
maintain our BUY call with a Target Price of IDR13,600, implying PBV 2015-16F of 2.6-2.3x.
5
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Bank
Tabungan
Pensiunan
Maintaining a focus
on the massmarket segment
Indocement
Stellar cost
management
Semen
Indonesia
Down but not out
Holcim
Indonesia
Double whammy
Jasa Marga
Opex slightly
higher, but still
manageable
Wijaya Karya
Negative surprise
from WTON
Pembangunan
Perumahan
PP Properti makes
a large contribution
Adhi Karya
Searching for solid
foundation
BTPN posted Net Interest Income (NII) of IDR1.8 tn in 1Q15, inline with our FY15 forecast of
IDR8.2 tn, reaching 22.4% of our FY15 forecast. Other operating income grew impressively by
47.8% YoY to IDR209 bn. Meanwhile, operating expenses grew by a manageable level of 13.2%
YoY. Hence, BTPN recorded PPOP of IDR885 bn, or inline (22.4% of our FY15 forecast). At the
bottom line, however, the net profits of IDR487 bn are slightly lower than our expectation due to
a higher tax rate of 25.7%. For the time being, we maintain our BUY call with a Target Price of
IDR5,450, implying PBV of 2.3-1.9x for 2015-16F.
Despite weak demand situation, which resulted in 8.5% sales volume compression in 1Q15,
Indocement turned out to be able to maintain profit growth, albeit small, and more
encouragingly, improved its margin. All of this achievement continues to show Indocement’s
superior cost management, which will provide greater earnings stability. We maintain our BUY
call on Indocement with TP IDR28,300.
Semen Indonesia reported 1Q15 net profit of IDR1.19t, which was down 9.1% y-y, mainly dragged
on rising production cost and opex, which resulted in margin compression. In a more positive
note, Semen Indonesia has been able to maintain sales volume despite weak demand
environment. Also, the austerity of government intervention to ASP in 1Q15 was less than
expected. The counter remains as our Top Picks in the sector
Holcim Indonesia saw a challenging environment in 1Q15 of when weak demand situation has
pressure down its market share, despite its growing capacity. With the new mill, depreciation
cost is escalating, pressured up cost, while huge increase in G&A put another pressure on the op
profit. On the net profit level, Holcim Indonesia bottom line collapse 90%, with margin reduce to
half of last year's level.
JSMR’s 1Q15 result came in broadly inline with our expectations. Revenues increased by 10%y-y
to Rp1.8tn on the back of a 5%y-y increase in traffic volume and a 21%y-y increase in other
operating revenues which owed to increases from toll road operating services (+73%y-y) and
petroleum sales (+117%y-y). Operating profits, however, only edged up 3%y-y in 1Q15 as salary
costs soared (+24%y-y) whilst depreciation also rose significantly (+26%y-y). Nonetheless, EBITDA
still grew 8% to Rp933bn in 1Q15 – inline with our expectations. At the bottom line, surging
interest costs during a period of heavy expansion and a higher tax rate continued to weigh on net
profits. As a result, net profits dropped 12%y-y to Rp330bn in 1Q15. All in all, JSMR posted good
performance backed by solid operational numbers. Maintain BUY.
WIKA posted a negative surprise in 1Q15 as WTON’s performance disappointed. Net profits
slumped 64%y-y to only Rp62bn in 1Q15 on the back of 28%y-y lower total revenues of Rp2.0tn
and margins pressure. The main culprit was the significant drop in the industrial segment (WTON)
in which revenues dived 42%y-y and the gross margin was cut by half to only 8.1% in 1Q15.
Moreover, higher net interest charges which reached Rp53bn also weighed on the net profits. All
in all, the 1Q15 result is below the seasonality in which period WIKA generally books around 20%
of its full-year figures. In the meantime, we will review our numbers with the possibility of an
earnings downgrade.
Even though PTPP’s revenues were flat at Rp1.98tn in 1Q15, net profits surged 52%y-y to Rp94bn.
Notably, PP Properti started to make a significant contribution to revenues – growing six-fold to
Rp409bn and accounting for 21% of PTPP’s total revenues. Meanwhile, revenues from the
company’s core construction business fell short of expectations (even with the huge backlog) due
to the lack of government projects and some delays in private projects in 1Q15. Hence, PTPP was
able to enjoy a higher gross margin (ex. JO) of 14.0% in 1Q15 (vs. 9.9% in 1Q14). Nonetheless, the
higher opex from higher depreciation costs and salaries is still manageable. All in all, PTPP’s result
is pretty much inline with the first quarter seasonality. We still believe the construction segment
revenues should start to flow in 2H15F, in accordance with the government’s timeline for
disbursement. Maintain BUY.
With carry over projects of only Rp8.1tn to start in 2015, ADHI is still searching for better new
contracts achievement to fuel in growth. Nonetheless, the 1Q15 result still reflecting company’s
low backlog order. As a result, ADHI’s net profits fell 34%y-y to Rp11bn on the back of the 14%y-y
decline in revenues and higher interest charges, with the property business remain the
company’s source of growth. Yet, some improvement seen in the gross margin which improved to
10.7% in 1Q15 (vs. 9.1% in 1Q14) thanks to higher property contribution as well as the recovery in
EPC business. Moreover, ADHI also posted an increase in new contracts to Rp2.5tn (+67%y-y) in
1Q15. All in all, the 1Q15 result still close to company’s seasonality at the lower bound. We
maintain our BUY call on the back of better result expectation in 2H15F.
6
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Waskita Karya
On higher ground
Wika Beton
Order book
shortfall
Indofood
Blame it on forex
Indofood CBP
Buoyant margins
expansions
Unilever
Strong result but
the valuation
remains excessive
Nippon
Indosari
Corpindo
Buoyant profits on
easing costs
Mandom
Slick and stylish
United
Tractors
Forex gain inched
up net profit
WSKT has started 2015 with good result as we expected. Revenues jumped 36%y-y to Rp1.4tn
with net profit surged 75%y-y to Rp12bn in 1Q15. The construction business revenue grew
healthy 21%y-y with precast revenue contribution has becoming more significant at 18% of
1Q15’s revenues given its ongoing toll projects. Nonetheless, with higher precast contribution
which has better margin profile, WSKT consolidated gross margin can be maintained at high level
of 11.2% in 1Q15. In sum, the 1Q15 result is inline with both market expectation as well as
company’s guidance looking at its first quarter seasonality. All in all, we maintain our BUY call on
WSKT as one of our Top Pick in our construction universe backed by its robust growth outlook.
With a carry-over order book of only Rp1tn in 2015, WTON faced strong headwinds at the start of
the year as new contracts progress was still lacking. As seen in the 1Q15 result, WTON’s revenues
dropped by almost 48%y-y to only Rp428bn with net profits slumping 79%y-y to Rp17bn mainly
on the lower profitability from weaker economies of scale. The gross margin halved to only 8.0%
in 1Q15 from as high as 15.7% in 1Q14, with the net margin reaching only 4.0% in 1Q15 (vs. 9.9%
in 1Q14). Overall, the 1Q15 result is below both market expectations and the company’s
guidance. For the time being, we will review our numbers with a possible downgrade in the
operational figures for FY15F looking imminent.
INDF’s lackluster performance in 1Q15 was mainly dragged down by Agribusiness and forex loss,
which mudded net margin to 5.8%. Top line was salvaged by ICBP, with lukewarm result from
Bogasari and Agribusiness. On the back of soft commodities prices, ICBP and Bogasari’s margins
are improved, but Agribusiness was squeezed along with lower commodities prices. Although we
are in the middle of revisiting our numbers, INDF’s current valuation remains lucrative, thus we
retain our BUY call with target price Under Review.
ICBP booked a strong 1Q15 result, with noodle ASP increase and volume growth in dairy. Margins
also expanded on the back of weaker commodities prices, a trend which we expect to continue
throughout the year. On a more negative note, we are weary on the slowdown in noodle sales
volumes, which is supposedly one of the most defensive item, and little room to hike ASP for
several products. We retain our HOLD call on ICBP, with target price of Rp13,800 – translating to
some 27x 2015PE.
Although growth continued to slow in 1Q15, prudent costs management yielded a YoY margins
improvement. All in all, this is another strong result from UNVR, even though the royalty fee
reached 7.3% of 1Q15 sales. We have turned more positive on UNVR’s margins, especially in light
of the low commodity prices, and raise our TP to Rp30,000. The valuation remains sky-high,
however, at 45.5x our 12-month forward PE. Thus, we still believe the stock is overvalued, and,
for that reason, stick with our SELL call.
ROTI booked a strong 1Q15 result, spurred by lower COGS – thanks to lower raw material costs.
Margins were healthy, with the gross margin at 53%, operating margin at 18.9% and net margin
at 12.9%. Admittedly, however, the growth rate has stalled – a trend we have observed since
4Q14. Nevertheless, we will be revisiting our numbers on the back of the better-than-expected
cost savings, which means our recommendation is currently under review.
TCID’s revenue grew 11% YoY, thanks to almost uniform growth increase across the product
segments. However, below the line items dragged down profit to Rp62bn, translating to 26.4%
net margin. Going forward, we expect TCID to continue to book robust growth, helped by
capacity expansion and operational efficiencies by relocating its production plant to Bekasi.
Currently, the stock is trading at 17x 2015PE, or at some 1SD above its 5-year mean. Although,
looking from another perspective, TCID is trading at a lucrative 0.48x PEG.
United Tractors (UNTR)reported net profit of Rp1.6tr in 1Q15 (+4% yoy, +175% qoq). While the
revenue and operating profit was within our expectation, the net profit was above expectation as
it accounted 30% of our net profit forecast predominantly due to forex gain of Rp268bn in 1Q15
vs. a forex loss of Rp177bn in 1Q14. With the outlook for heavy equipment remains challenging
given unfavorable commodity prices and the expectation that the rupiah will recover against US
Dollar in 2H15 when the macro condition are more supportive, hence, we maintain HOLD
recommendation with target price of Rp22,200/share (based on DCF valuation with a WACC of
14.8% and long-term growth of 3%).
7
5 May 2015
Kalbe Farma
Kimia Farma
Siloam
International
Hospitals
Adaro Energy
Bukit Asam
Harum
Energy
Timah
Vale
Indonesia
Weekly Report
Weakness still
persist
Kalbe Farma reported net profit of Rp529bn, up 7.2% y-y, below our expectation, representing
21.3% of our full year forecast. The weak bottom line is attributable to lower revenue growth of
4.4% y-y to Rp4.2tn, mainly due to lower than expected sales growth in all company’s business
segments. The topline growth is still below the management target of 11-13% growth this year.
Following this development, Kalbe’s management revised its topline growth target to 7-9% this
year. We tweak our numbers on the lower revenues growth expectation in all company’s
business segments. We cut our revenues and earnings forecast by 8% and 8.4% to Rp18.8tn and
Rp2.3tn for FY15F. Maintain HOLD.
Nurturing better
Kimia Farma posted revenues of Rp1tn in 1Q15, up 17.1%y-y thanks to strong performance in all
performance
the company’s business segments. Gross profits jumped 25.1% y-y to Rp302bn underpinned by a
higher gross margin due to a greater sales contribution from the company’s own products. The
operating profits, meanwhile, jumped 339.5% y-y, supported by manageable operating expenses.
Hence, net income also grew strongly, up 87.9% y-y to Rp44bn underpinned by better margins
across the board and higher interest income. Overall, the figures are inline with our expectation.
Maintain BUY.
Maintaining strong
Siloam Hospitals posted gross operating revenues of IDR976bn in 1Q15, up 30%y-y, thanks to the
growth momentum higher revenues from its developing hospitals. Furthermore, EBITDA also grew strongly, up 41.3%
y-y to IDR156bn, inline with our expectation. The 1Q15 EBITDA margin itself was higher-thanexpected at 15.9%, up 1.27ppt y-y. Going forward, we believe that Siloam should maintain its
strong growth momentum underpinned by briskly growing revenues coming from its developing
hospitals and the rapid expansion of new hospitals. Maintain BUY with a TP of IDR15,750.
Expect higher
Adaro Energy (ADRO) reported a decline in the net profit by 54% yoy to US$59mn in 1Q15. While
stripping ratio in
revenue was within our expectation, the net profit was above expectation. This was mainly
upcoming quarters
attributable to lower-than-expected on the stripping ratio which reflected better margin than our
expectation. While the management is expected a flat or a slight increase coal production growth
for 2015, we expect the company will be able to maintain performance amid current unfavorable
coal price as a result of the expectation of lower cash cost of production and strengthening
balance sheet to improve profitability. Maintain BUY recommendation.
Unfavorable coal
Bukit Asam (PTBA) reported net profit of Rp340bn in 1Q15 (-37% yoy, -22% qoq). While revenue
prices lowered
was within our forecast, the net profit was below ours and consensus forecast as it only accounted
margin
19% of our and consensus forecast. Lower than expected on the net profit was mainly attributable
to higher costs which resulted on the lower-than-expected on the gross margin. With the
expectation that the company to post double digit coal production amid unfavorable coal prices,
we still maintain BUY recommendation with target price at Rp13,500, based on DCF valuation
(WACC: 13.2% and long-term growth of 3%). Our target price implies 16.8x 2015F PE.
Weak coal prices
Harum Energy (HRUM) reported a sharp decline in net profit by 84% yoy to US$1.7mn in 1Q15. The
dragged down
net profit was below our and consensus expectation as it only accounted for about 17% of our
performance
forecast. This was due to lower than expected on the sales volume and ASP. Lower net profit was
mainly attributable to a) a decline in sales volume (-36% yoy) and ASP (-15% yoy) as a result of
unfavorable coal prices. With the company is expected to trim down its coal production for 2015
and we concern with limited reserves, hence, we maintain HOLD recommendation while reviewing
our target price.
Higher tin ore cost
Timah (TINS) reported a net loss of Rp19bn in 1Q15 vs a profit of Rp95bn in 1Q14. The net profit
and lower ASP
was below our and forecast consensus mainly due to a) lower than expected on the sales volume
resulted on net loss and b) higher-than expected on our refined tin price assumption. While the management indicated
refined tin sales volume to increase by 6% yoy to 28,500 tons in 2015, we believe the company
may adjust down its initial target for refined tin sales volume for 2015, given current unfavorable
refined tin price and the issuance of tighter regulation that would reduce Indonesia’s exports of
refined tin.
Saved by lower
Vale Indonesia (INCO) reported net profit of US$25mn in 1Q15 (+39% yoy, but -40% qoq). The net
energy prices
profit was below our expectation and consensus forecast as a result of lower-than-expected on the
nickel ASP and lower margin assumption. Higher net profit was mainly attributable to lower costs
with total COGS went down by 6% yoy following a slump in the crude oil prices. With the
expectation on further improvement in the nickel prices in 2H14, and lower environment in the
crude oil prices to benefit the company, we expect margin improvement in the upcoming quarter.
Maintain BUY recommendation.
8
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Aneka
Tambang
Better operational,
but still on net loss
due to forex loss
Astra Agro
Lestari
A historic low
Sampoerna
Agro
Continuatino of the
low cycle
London
Sumatra
Rubber and seed
outperformed
Salim Ivomas
No sugar rush
Alam Sutera
Profit dragged
down by the forex
loss
Metropolitan
Land
Better margins with
modest topline
growth
Lippo
Karawaci
Grew healthily
Telkom
Slightly weak
quarter
Aneka Tambang (ANTM) reported lower net loss of Rp240bn in 1Q15 (1Q14: net loss of Rp275bn).
While revenue was above expectation owing to better-than expected on the gold sales volume,
the net profit was below our expectation due to lower than expected on the gross margin and
forex loss of Rp168bn in 1Q15 vs. forex gain of Rp30bn in 1Q14. Given current weakness on the
nickel prices, we are reviewing our target price to incorporate our latest nickel price assumption.
Maintain HOLD.
Astra Agro reported weak 1Q15, which saw considerable compression on margin with profit
plummeted down 70% q-q and 80% y-y. The main weakness stemmed mainly on; 1. Lower sales
volume due to weak demand; 2. Decline on ASP; and 3. Forex loss on IDR depreciation in 1Q15.
AALI profit of IDR156b was only account for 6% of our and consensus expectation. While weak
results would lead to considerably negative earnings revision from street, AALI remains a proxy to
CPO exposure in Indonesia. Implementation of stricter domestic biodiesel mandate would be the
catalyst.
Sampoerna Agro production had been relatively week, which initially started in 4Q14, which then
extended into 1Q15. The situation was further worsened by soft CPO prices, which resulted in
massive collapse of SGRO's bottom line to only IDR17b, down 70.1% y-y. On a more positive note,
SGRO's massive capex to boost its nucleus has started to bear fruit as seen in nucleus production
now accounts for 65% of total FFB production, much higher than only 40% back in 2009.
London Sumatra also experience a double whammy on its top line, a combination of weak
production season and soft CPO price given weak demand. Lonsum CPO sales volume down 23.1%,
with ASP decline 13.8% y-y. Rubber posted better results, as its volume was relatively flat y-y,
while seed sales jumped 37% y-y, although its price was down 16.8% y-y. Lonsum net profit down
32% y-y to IDR153b, and perfomed relatively better compared to other plantation companies
under our coverage.
All division posted weak performance, including edible oil and fats, which should actually enjoy
soft CPO price environment. Sugar business was the worst performer with sales volume declined
55% y-y. Overall net profit only reached IDR47b, down 81%, with net margin of only 2% level. The
results was a major dissapointment, and should see massive negative earnings revision post the
results release.
ASRI booked total net profit of Rp280 bn in 1Q15, down by 9.8% yoy, or slightly below than our
and consensus estimate (22.3% from our full year forecast). Margins were significantly improved in
the operating level, operating profit jumped by 96.1% yoy in 1Q15 - better than our expectation.
This owed to higher contribution as well as higher margin from the land lots sales. However, ASRI
posted Rp251 bn forex loss in 1Q15, as most of the company’s debt was in USD denomination. We
still maintain our BUY recommendation on the company, with Target Price of Rp700.
MTLA booked Rp60 bn of net profits in 1Q15, up 11.5% yoy. This result is inline with our full year
forecast, in consideration of the company’s seasonality of booking higher earnings in the second
half. Revenues only increased by 4.1% yoy to Rp223 bn in 1Q15. Gross margins improved while the
net margin was stable. All in all, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the company, with a
Target Price of Rp620.
LPKR posted Rp417 bn net profit in 1Q15, increased by 23.1% from Rp339 bn in 1Q14, inline with
our full year forecast. Revenue was also within expectation; it grew by 18.5% yoy to Rp2,384 bn.
The strongest growth was generated from the large scale development project. Moreover, the
healthcare business (SILO) also posted an attractive performance. Profitability was relatively
maintained in all level. The stock is currently trading above our Target Price, thus, we will need to
review our numbers.
Telkom posted 1Q15 net profit of IDR3.81tn, a 5% YoY increase compared to corresponding figure
in 1Q14. Revenue rose by 11% YoY propelled by 36% YoY increase in data revenue. Meanwhile,
EBITDA surged by 12% YoY to IDR12.36tn with EBITDA margin increasing a tad to 52.3% from
51.7%. Although robust, the result came slightly below our estimate, with revenue, EBITDA, and
net profit represent just 22-23% of our FY15F. Maintain HOLD on the stock.
9
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Blue Bird
A reserved growth
PGN
Dragged by
Economic
Slowdown
Mitra Adi
Perkasa
Pressure from
higher interest
expense
Ramayana
Disappointing
results
Ace
Hardware
Normalized
margins
The first quarter of the year has always been the weakest quarter for BIRD, reflecting the economy
cycle. In 1Q15, BIRD’s net revenues only grew 17%y-y to Rp1.3tn, mainly driven by its core regular
taxi business which climbed 19%y-y during the period, while the other businesses only posted
single digit growth. In our view, the growth in regular taxis still driven both by the volume
expansion as well as latest tariff increase, while utilization seems still flat. Meanwhile, the lower
gasoline fuel price still hasn’t impacted significantly on y-y basis, and as a result, the gross margin
slightly squeezed to 31.4% in 1Q15 (vs. 32.5% in 1Q14). Moreover, the 25%y-y increased in opex
also weight down the bottom line. Consequently, BIRD’s net profit only grew 2%y-y to Rp223bn in
1Q15, despite significantly lower net interest charges from the IPO proceeds. All in all, the 1Q15
result only inline at the top line with the seasonality pattern in 2014, while the bottom line is
below our expectation. We will tweak our margin assumption in the near-term while still believe
that stronger result in 2H15F can be expected.
PGN reported a very weak first quarter result with EBITDA and net profit dropping by 22% and 38%
YoY to USD216mn and USD109mn respectively. This was caused by weak demand for its gas from
PLN which caused distribution volume to drop by 9% YoY and revenue to drop by 13% YoY to
USD696mn. In addition to that, distribution margin deteriorated to USD3.1/mmbtu from
USD3.6/mmbtu, lower than our expectation of USD3.5/mmbtu margin for 2015. 1Q15 EPS came at
just IDR59, which if annualized, translates into the stock trading at steep FY15F PER of 17.5x. We
put our recommendation and TP UNDER REVIEW.
MAPI has reported disappointing 1Q15 results, with Rp12 bn of net profits (-73.0% yoy), well
below our and consensus estimate. At the top line, revenues were still inline with, up 10.8% yoy to
Rp2,965 bn in 1Q15. Profitability remains the challenge, as the company still needed to offer the
price discount to some of their products – as we’ve expected. The operating profit was still inline
with our full year forecast, considering seasonality. However, the higher than expected interest
expenses has given more pressure to the margins. We will need to adjust our numbers to
incorporate the weak result. Our last recommendation on the company was BUY with a Target
Price of Rp6,250.
The weak performance continues, RALS’s net profit was dropped by 85.6% yoy to only Rp6 bn,
slightly lower than our forecast. The weak demand coming from lower customer purchasing power
has translated into lower revenues in 1Q15. Moreover, lower gross margin from both outright and
consignment products, as well as higher operating expense, has given more pressure to the
company. We will need to review our number, as we don’t expect significant profitability
improvement in the near term. Our last Target Price was Rp910.
ACES’s 1Q15 result was inline with the seasonality, company booked Rp126 bn net profits or down
by 7.8% yoy (20.5% from our full year forecast). Revenue also inline with seasonality, increased by
3.2% to Rp1,138 bn in 1Q15. Profitability was lower in 1Q15, as expected, with its high inventory
level. Going forward, we still believe that the growth will improve in the following quarters,
although we have expected that margins will be normalized this year. For the time being, we still
maintained our BUY recommendation on the company with Target Price of Rp920.
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
10
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 4. JCI sector performance from peak (7-Apr-15) to
30-Apr-15
Exhibit 5. Bottom 20 stocks performance from peak (7Apr-15) to 30-Apr-15
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Apr 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Apr 2015
Exhibit 6. Regional weekly performance
Exhibit 7. Regional Ytd 2015 performance
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Apr 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Apr 2015
Exhibit 8. Average daily transactions
Exhibit 9. Foreign fund flows
Source: IDX, as of 30 Apr 2015
Source: IDX, as of 30 Apr 2015
11
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 10. Sector weekly performance
Exhibit 11. Sector Ytd 2015 performance
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Apr 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Apr 2015
Exhibit 12. Regional market valuations
Exhibit 13. JCI Valuation
2015F
2016F
Philippines
20.1
17.8
Malaysia
17.1
15.7
NKY
19.1
17.3
Singapore
14.4
13.1
JCI
16.3
13.8
Dow Jones
16.3
14.9
Sensex
15.4
13.0
Thailand
15.5
13.5
FTSE
16.9
14.5
Hongkong
13.5
12.0
China
17.7
15.2
Taiwan
13.8
12.3
Average
16.0
14.1
Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr 2015
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Apr 2015
Exhibit 14. USD/IDR performance
Exhibit 15. CDS - 5 years
Source: Bloomberg, as of 1 May 2015
Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 Apr 2015
12
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 16. Danareksa bonds yield index
Exhibit 17. Country risk premium
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Apr 2015
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Apr 2015
Exhibit 18. Winners within our coverage
Exhibit 19. Losers within our coverage
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Apr 2015
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Apr 2015
Exhibit 20. Winners within our coverage (Weekly)
Exhibit 21. Losers within our coverage (Weekly)
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Apr 2015
Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 30 Apr 2015
13
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
Exhibit 22. One-week report wrap
Date
Company
Title
29-Apr-15
TBIG
Acquisition of Mitratel in jeopardy
28-Apr-15
Consumer sector
28-Apr-15
Weekly report
Key Point
Rini Soewandi, the Minister of SOE, was quoted saying that the government, represented by the Board of
Commissioners, has not approved Telkom’s plan to divest Mitratel to Tower Bersama (TBIG). If the plan fails
to materialize, we believe there will be significant impact to TBIG given, primarily in its capacity to assume
more debt to fuel expansion. Meanwhile, impact to Telkom will be relatively muted since Mitratel contributed
just 2.4% of Telkom’s FY14 EBITDA.
Channel check: gauging the state of the market We recently conducted a channel check through a modern trade outlet. We note clear dominance in certain
segments (UNVR for most HPC products, INDF and ICBP for most foodrelated products). 2Q15 should be strong
on the back of the Ramadan festivities although we remain cautious on the stronger USD (which may lead to
margins contraction) and weaker consumer purchasing power. Maintain Neutral.
Reality bites
The Indonesian market took a beating yesterday, with the JCI slumping 3.5% on large foreign outflows. In our
view, investor concerns are currently centered on three main issues: 1. Disappointing 1Q15 results; 2. Weak
1Q15 GDP figures; and 3. The imminent executions of a number of death row inmates which could disrupt
bilateral relations and economic partnerships. Maintain Overweight.
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
14
Danareksa Quant Model
5 May 2015
Weekly Report
DQM model commentary:
Last week the JCI tumble, down 6.4% w-w, dragged down by weakening in all sectors. This week, our DQM model forecast slight weakening on the Indonesia market with most
sectors is predicted to record negative w-w returns. Despite this, however, our model forecast some big caps stocks such as ASII, TLKM, BBRI, PGAS, GGRM and SMGR to move in
green territory. (Please see the details in the table above).
16
Tuesday, 05 May 2015
CONSUMER STAPLES/ COMPANY UPDATE
Indofood Sukses Makmur
BUY
Target Price, IDR
8,050
Upside
17%
INDF IJ/INDF.JK
Last Price, IDR
No. of shares (bn)
6,875
8.8
Market Cap, IDR bn
60,365
(USD mn)
3M T/O, USD mn
4,648
5.63
Although growth may stall, gearing should not shoot up
In 1Q15, Bogasari’s revenues contracted 7.3% YoY, with sales volume of 637.4k tons (3.1% YoY), translating into a blended ASP of Rp6,840/kg, -4.31% YoY. As is the case with
the FMCG industry in general, we tend to see growth stemming mainly from ASP
increases rather than volume growth. Going forward, as the buyers of flour are shifting
towards lower-end products, INDF may face difficulties in raising flour prices, especially
with the intensifying competition which may lead to more promotions that would make
ASP increases even more problematic. On a more positive note, net gearing dropped to
35% in 1Q15 from 42% in 4Q14. The management indicated capex in 2015 of Rp8.5tn, of
which Rp1.2tn was spent in 1Q15. As we believe INDF’s capex will be smaller than the
management’s guidance (circa Rp7tn), we expect gearing to remain manageable as we
do not expect large new additional loans.
Market Recommendation
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Our
8,050
580
12
As we have adjusted our 2015 numbers to reflect the weak 1Q15 result, we cut our
2015 earnings forecast by 6%. Our margins expectations are also lower. Going
forward, we expect hiccups in Bogasari due to possible difficulties in implementing
ASP increases, but, on a more positive note, we do not think INDF’s gearing level will
shoot up in the remainder of 2015. In our valuation, we also trim several of our SOTP
multiples to reflect the cyclical nature of its business segments and the more intensive
competition, and increase our discount factor to 20%. This gives rise to a Target Price
of Rp8,050, translating into 18.5x 2015PE - a 32% discount to ICBP. We continue to like
INDF for its cheap valuation, and the stock remains a BUY.
2015 adjustments on the weak 1Q15 result
As we have adjusted our 2015 numbers to reflect the weak 1Q15 result, we trim our
2015-16 net profit estimates by 6.07-2.75%. This reflects Bogasari’s lower-thanexpected top line performance, which leads to lower earnings. Our new forecast also
reflects higher forex losses, which hit INDF’s 1Q15 earnings. From our downward
adjustments, our expected gross, operating and net margins are lower at 26.4%, 11.7%
and 5.6%, respectively, down from 27.3%, 12.3% and 5.9%.
INDF relative to JCI
Target Price, IDR
EPS 2015F, IDR
PE 2015F, x
Too cheap to ignore
Cons
8,516
513
13
% Diff
-5
13
-11
The valuation remains cheap - still a BUY
We have adjusted our SOTP valuation for INDF, with changes in our multiples for
Bogasari and Agribusiness, to better reflect the risk associated with the cyclical nature of
its business segments. Our multiples stand at 8.8x PE for Agri (from 11x previously) to
reflect a higher discount on INDF’s weak sugar performance in Brazil, and we adjust
Bogasari’s EBIT multiple to 8.8x (from 12.5x previously) to further reflect the cyclicality
and risk of more intensive competition. As we expect most of the earnings to come from
ICBP, we increase our discount factor to 20%, giving rise to a Target Price of Rp8,050.
This translates into 18.5x 2015PE, and reflects a 32% discount to ICBP’s PE. Thus, the
stock remains a BUY.
Revenue, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA growth, %
Net profit, Rp bn
Core profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS growth, %
Net gearing, %
PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
2012
50,201.5
7,887.7
8.43%
3,261.2
4,812.4
548.1
7.97%
net cash
18.5
2.8
7.8
2.7%
2013
55,623.7
7,102.0
-9.96%
2,503.8
3,433.8
391.1
-28.65%
0.4
24.1
2.6
8.6
2.1%
2014
63,594.5
8,842.4
24.51%
3,885.4
5,265.4
599.7
53.34%
0.3
15.5
2.3
6.9
2.8%
2015F
68,462.8
8,789.2
-0.60%
3,810.9
5,089.8
579.7
-3.33%
0.2
15.8
2.1
7.0
3.1%
2016F
72,055.0
9,411.5
7.08%
4,287.0
5,710.7
650.4
12.20%
0.1
14.1
2.0
6.5
3.5%
5 May 2015
Indofood Sukses Makmur
Exhibit 1. Change in forecasts
Current
Previous
Changes
2014
2015F
2016F
2014
2015F
2016F
2014
2015F
2016F
Revenue, Rp bn
63,594
68,463
72,055
63,594
68,801
72,398
0.00%
-0.49%
-0.47%
Gross profit, Rp bn
17,050
18,038
19,561
17,050
18,780
19,804
0.00%
-3.95%
-1.23%
Operating profit, Rp bn
7,209
8,028
8,614
7,209
8,458
9,107
0.00%
-5.09%
-5.41%
Pre-tax profit, Rp bn
6,229
6,628
7,456
6,229
7,056
7,666
0.00%
-6.07%
-2.75%
Net profit, Rp bn
3,885
3,811
4,287
3,885
4,057
4,408
0.00%
-6.07%
-2.75%
Gross margin, %
26.81%
26.35%
27.15%
26.81%
27.30%
27.35%
0.00%
0.95%
0.21%
Operating margin, %
11.34%
11.73%
11.95%
11.34%
12.29%
12.58%
0.00%
0.57%
0.62%
6.11%
5.57%
5.95%
6.11%
5.90%
6.09%
0.00%
0.33%
0.14%
Net margin, %
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Sales volume breakdown
3M14
6M14
9M14
FY14
3M15
0.71
1.45
2.10
2.88
0.69
Plantations (tons)
272,350
545,770
882,870
1,239,850
244,630
CPO
212,990
422,510
668,680
957,000
184,180
44,820
91,530
145,440
193,350
45,910
4,070
7,920
11,560
16,050
10,470
Bogasari (k tons)
PK
Rubber production (tons)
Sugar
Cooking Oil and Fats (tons)
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
10,470
23,810
57,190
73,480
4,070
188,930
403,860
575,420
755,310
156,790
Exhibit 3. SOTP valuation breakdown
Ownership
ICBP
Bogasari
Agribusiness
Distribution
Cash 2015
Debt 2015
EV
No of outstanding shares (mn shares)
Discount
Price/share
EPS 2015
Target PE
80.53%
100%
50.60%
100%
Valuation method
24x 2015PE
8.8x EBIT
8.8x 2015PE
9.8x EBIT
Effective Market cap
(IDRtn)
64.80
10.56
5.44
2.09
12.12
17.54
88.32
8,780.40
20%
8,046.68
434.02
18.54
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
2
5 May 2015
Indofood Sukses Makmur
Exhibit 4. Profit and Loss
Sales
COGS
Gross profit
SG&A
Depreciation
EBITDA
Other operating income (exp)
Operating income
Interest income
Interest expense
Forex gain (loss)
Other income (exp)
Pre-tax income
Income tax
Minority interest
Pro-forma adjustment
Income from dis. Op
Net income
2012
50,202
36,610
13,591
6,838
1,134
7,888
125
6,878
554
(1,115)
6,317
(1,531)
(1,518)
(7)
3,261
2013
55,624
42,018
13,606
8,049
1,545
7,102
554
6,112
606
(2,700)
(17)
4,001
(1,177)
(913)
2
591
2,504
2014
63,594
46,545
17,050
10,175
1,968
8,842
334
7,209
693
(1,553)
(119)
6,229
(1,828)
(1,261)
745
3,885
2015F
68,463
50,425
18,038
10,412
1,163
8,789
402
8,028
496
(2,000)
104
6,628
(1,657)
(1,160)
3,811
2016F
72,055
52,494
19,561
11,405
1,255
9,411
458
8,614
515
(1,800)
126
7,456
(1,864)
(1,305)
4,287
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 5. Balance Sheet
Cash and cash equivalent
Account receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
PPE
Others
Total assets
Account payable
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long term borrowings
Other long term liabilities
Total non-current liabilities
Total liabilities
Minority interest
Capital stock
Additional paid in
Unrealized gains
Diff. in Value of Transaction w/ entities
Exchange Diff
Proforma
Capital Reserve
Retained Earnings
Total liabilities and equity
2012
13,346
3,037
7,786
2,067
26,236
15,805
17,348
59,389
2,500
10,305
12,805
8,354
4,090
12,444
25,249
12,934
878
522
465
6,525
74
(2)
80
12,665
46,455
2013
13,666
4,737
8,161
6,209
32,772
22,238
22,602
77,611
3,678
15,793
19,471
15,324
4,924
20,248
39,720
14,462
878
522
554
6,579
1,287
85
13,524
63,149
2014
14,158
3,541
8,455
14,843
40,996
22,011
22,932
85,939
3,847
18,835
22,682
16,838
5,191
22,029
44,711
15,528
878
522
539
6,637
520
90
16,513
70,411
2015F
12,119
4,422
8,846
9,409
34,797
26,438
21,745
82,979
3,736
15,581
19,318
11,734
6,087
17,821
37,138
17,578
878
522
640
6,579
1,287
95
18,262
65,401
2016F
14,013
4,564
9,051
9,524
37,152
28,638
22,463
88,253
4,004
16,077
20,081
11,968
6,588
18,556
38,637
18,897
878
522
672
6,579
1,287
100
20,681
69,356
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
3
5 May 2015
Indofood Sukses Makmur
Exhibit 6. Cash Flow
2012
3,261
1,134
2,290
6,686
2013
2,504
1,545
3,504
7,552
2014
3,885
1,968
1,168
7,021
2015F
3,811
1,163
4,612
9,586
2016F
4,287
1,255
4,172
9,714
Capex
Others
Investing cash flow
(4,528)
(652)
(5,180)
(8,915)
(4,316)
(13,230)
(5,176)
403
(4,773)
(5,712)
1,309
(4,402)
(3,786)
(388)
(4,174)
Dividends
Net change in debt
Others
Financing cash flow
(1,537)
3,043
(2,721)
(1,215)
(1,624)
7,409
214
5,999
(1,247)
2,229
(2,739)
(1,757)
(1,712)
(5,033)
(477)
(7,222)
(1,867)
586
(2,364)
(3,646)
Net change in cash
Net cash (debt) at beg.
Net cash (debt) at end.
291
13,055
13,346
320
13,346
13,666
491
13,666
14,158
(2,038)
14,158
12,119
1,894
12,119
14,013
Net income
Depreciation and amortisation
Change in working capital
Operating cash flow
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 7. Ratios
Profitability
Gross margin
Operating margin
Pretax margin
Net margin
ROA
ROE
Leverage
Net debt/equity (%)
Interest coverage ratio (x)
Per share data (Rp)
EPS
BVPS
DPS
Multiples (x)
PER
PBV
EV EBITDAR
2012
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
27.1%
13.5%
12.6%
6.5%
5.8%
12.4%
24.5%
10.0%
7.2%
4.5%
3.7%
11.2%
26.8%
10.8%
9.8%
6.1%
4.8%
15.8%
26.3%
11.1%
9.7%
5.6%
4.5%
14.1%
27.1%
11.3%
10.3%
5.9%
5.0%
14.5%
net cash
-
36.1%
2
30.9%
4
19.2%
4
13.8%
5
371
2,415
185
285
2,668
142
443
2,927
195
434
3,219
213
488
3,499
239
18.5
2.8
7.8
24.1
2.6
8.6
15.5
2.3
6.9
15.8
2.1
7.0
14.1
2.0
6.5
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
4
Tuesday, 05 May 2015
CONSUMER STAPLES/COMPANY UPDATE
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
HOLD
Target Price, IDR
1,200
Upside
8.6%
ROTI IJ/ROTI.JK
Last Price, IDR
No. of shares (bn)
1,105
5.1
Market Cap, IDR bn
5,593
(USD mn)
3M T/O, USD mn
431
0.56
ROTI relative to JCI
Market Recommendation
Danareksa vs. Consensus
Target Price, IDR
EPS 2015F, IDR
PE 2015F, x
Our
1,200
53
21
Cons
1,515
49
23
% Diff
-21
8
-7
Slower growth but upside remains
Given softer wheat prices, whilst also taking into account the new bonds issuance, we
raise our 2015-16 bottom line estimates by around 31-47%. Using our new numbers,
ROTI is trading at 21x 2015PE, or slightly below 1SD from its 5-year mean, although
the stock’s 5-year mean PE of 31.5x is arguably rather high, especially in light of the
current economic challenges which might hamper growth. We value ROTI at 22.8x,
1SD below its mean, to capture the risks to growth. This translates into a Rp1,200
Target Price, providing 8.6% upside potential. We rate the stock a HOLD.
Margins expansion on softer wheat prices
Whilst we keep our sales forecast intact, in view of the lower wheat prices, we are
expecting margins to be better than previously expected. We take our wheat price
forecast from USDA, which has revised its expected wheat prices to US$6-6.10/bushel
(from US$5.9-6.3/bushel) in 2014-15, as production from the EU, Pakistan and several
countries in the Middle East continues to be robust. We believe this trend is likely to
continue, as production growth exceeds production needs. Hence, our gross margin
estimate is higher at 48.56% compared to 45.05% previously. Whilst we also cautiously
expect a weaker IDR in 2015, we believe the volatility of the rupiah exchange rate will
not be as extreme as in 2014, translating into softer pressure on margins.
Growth expected to slow due to weaker consumer appetite
ROTI recently issued Rp500bn of bonds, 68% of which will be used to refinance its debt.
That said, we expect ROTI’s interest expenses to increase, albeit more slowly in 2015 as
the coupon payment will start in June 2015. Going into 2016 onwards, the bonds’
interest expenses should have a bigger impact on the bottom line. Our new net profits
estimate is Rp266bn, translating into an 11.84% net margin. ROTI has set aside the
remaining 32% from the bonds issuance for renewal of facilities and expansion, but, on
the back of recently completed production facilities, we believe capacity expansion
might not be necessary. Whilst we acknowledge that 1Q has always been weak
seasonally compared to 4Q, we see weaker growth in the Cikarang-Cikande production,
which might slow the growth rate. Like the FMCG category, we are more inclined to
think that ASP will be the driving force for growth given muted growth in consumption
volumes. Our growth rate estimate of 20% for 2015 is moderate in comparison to the
company’s 31% 5-year CAGR, reflecting possible difficulties in implementing substantial
price hikes or achieving robust sales volume growth.
The valuation is low enough to take into account the slower growth
ROTI has always traded at a premium valuation, with its 5-year PE mean reaching 31.5x.
However, following the recent share price declines and the better-than-expected 1Q15
result, this has left ROTI trading at 21x 2015, slightly below 1SD from its 5-year average.
We believe this valuation is low enough to take into account the slower growth coming
in 2015. We value ROTI at 22.8x 2015 PE, 1 SD below its mean since 31.5x is too lofty, in
our view. This translates into a Rp1,200 Target Price. With 8.6% potential upside, ROTI
remains a HOLD.
Revenue, Rp bn
EBITDA, Rp bn
EBITDA growth, %
Net profit, Rp bn
Core profit, Rp bn
Core EPS, Rp
Core EPS growth, %
Net gearing, %
Core PER, x
PBV, x
EV/EBITDA, x
Yield, %
2012
1,190.83
227.28
33.39%
149.15
149.06
29.45
25.27%
42.38
37.52
1.68
26.56
2.59%
2013
1,505.52
273.21
20.21%
158.02
159.52
31.52
7.02%
73.85
35.06
1.89
22.10
3.33%
2014
1,880.26
358.99
31.40%
188.58
184.95
36.54
15.94%
73.91
30.24
5.83
16.82
0.28%
2015F
2,249.42
520.16
44.90%
266.33
266.71
52.69
44.21%
62.96
20.97
4.77
11.61
0.95%
2016F
2,885.77
734.37
41.18%
377.36
377.74
74.63
41.63%
46.14
14.81
3.79
8.22
1.35%
5 May 2015
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
Exhibit 1. Change in forecasts
Current
Previous
Changes
2014
2015F
2016F
2014
2015F
2016F
2014
2015F
2016F
1,880
2,249
2,886
1,880
2,249
2,735
0.00%
0.00%
5.50%
Gross profit, Rp bn
901
1,092
1,419
901
1,013
1,250
0.00%
7.78%
13.50%
Operating profit, Rp bn
263
373
565
263
324
431
0.00%
15.16%
31.08%
Pre-tax profit, Rp bn
253
355
503
253
270
341
0.00%
31.34%
47.55%
Net profit, Rp bn
189
266
377
189
203
256
0.00%
31.34%
47.55%
Gross margin, %
47.94%
48.56%
49.18%
47.94%
45.05%
45.72%
0.00%
-3.51%
-3.47%
Operating margin, %
13.97%
16.60%
19.59%
13.97%
14.41%
15.77%
0.00%
-2.19%
-3.82%
Net margin, %
10.03%
11.84%
13.08%
10.03%
9.01%
9.35%
0.00%
-2.83%
-3.73%
Revenue, Rp bn
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 2. Wheat price forecast
(US$/bushel)
USDA Forecast longer range
Avrg. Farm Price (US$/bushel)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 3. Global wheat supply/production
(mn mtons)
United States production
Other countries production
Usage
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
2
5 May 2015
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
Exhibit 4. Profit and Loss
2012
1,190.83
634.41
556.41
370.26
41.13
227.28
186.15
0.39
0.08
13.17
199.79
50.64
149.15
2013
1,505.52
806.92
698.60
488.68
63.29
273.21
209.93
2.81
(24.40)
(1.47)
23.94
210.80
52.79
158.02
2014
1,880.26
978.85
901.41
638.81
96.39
358.99
262.60
0.97
(46.84)
4.02
32.01
252.76
64.19
188.58
2015F
2,249.42
1,157.12
1,092.30
718.91
146.78
520.16
373.39
0.34
(59.08)
40.45
355.10
88.78
266.33
2016F
2,885.77
1,466.41
1,419.36
854.01
169.02
734.37
565.35
0.33
(82.43)
19.90
503.14
125.79
377.36
2012
37.87
136.63
22.60
22.72
219.82
893.90
91.23
1,204.94
2013
101.14
183.09
36.52
43.13
363.88
1,175.25
283.56
1,822.69
2014F
162.58
213.41
40.80
3.53
420.32
1,679.98
42.60
2,142.89
2015F
294.99
252.74
48.21
43.02
638.97
1,985.33
176.82
2,801.11
2016F
364.70
294.47
59.85
49.58
768.61
2,160.10
263.28
3,191.99
Account payable
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long term borrowings
Other long term liabilities
Total non-current liabilities
Total liabilities
79.03
116.42
195.46
296.84
28.98
17.05
538.34
159.32
160.88
320.20
656.39
33.06
25.70
1,035.35
125.60
182.00
307.61
787.75
51.08
36.34
1,182.77
208.28
331.35
539.63
996.54
55.21
36.54
1,627.93
248.77
346.40
595.17
996.54
76.90
48.31
1,716.92
Capital stock
Additional paid in
Retained earnings
Total liabilities and equity
101.24
173.00
392.37
1,204.94
101.24
173.00
513.10
1,822.69
101.24
173.00
685.88
2,142.89
101.24
173.00
898.95
2,801.11
101.24
173.00
1,200.83
3,191.99
Sales
COGS
Gross profit
SG&A
Depreciation
EBITDA
Operating income
Interest income
Interest expense
Forex gain (loss)
Other income (exp)
Pre-tax income
Income tax
Net income
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
Exhibit 5. Balance Sheet
Cash and cash equivalent
Account receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
PPE
Others
Total assets
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
3
5 May 2015
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
Exhibit 6. Cash Flow
2012
149.15
41.13
0.65
190.93
2013
158.02
63.29
49.91
271.22
2014F
188.58
96.39
(55.20)
229.77
2015F
266.33
146.78
193.42
606.53
2016F
377.36
169.02
(4.38)
542.00
Capex
Others
Investing cash flow
(388.93)
(68.42)
(457.35)
(344.64)
(192.33)
(536.97)
(601.12)
240.96
(360.16)
(452.12)
(134.22)
(586.35)
(343.80)
(86.46)
(430.26)
Dividends
Net change in debt
Others
Financing cash flow
(28.98)
284.85
0.02
255.89
(49.71)
366.31
12.43
329.02
(15.79)
207.63
(0.00)
191.84
(53.27)
165.49
(0.00)
112.22
(75.47)
33.45
(0.00)
(42.02)
Net change in cash
Net cash (debt) at beg.
Net cash (debt) at end.
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
(10.53)
48.40
37.87
63.27
37.87
101.14
61.44
101.14
162.58
132.40
162.58
294.99
69.72
294.99
364.70
2012
2013
2014F
2015F
2016F
46.7%
15.6%
16.8%
12.5%
15.2%
24.6%
46.4%
13.9%
14.0%
10.5%
10.4%
21.7%
47.9%
14.0%
13.4%
10.0%
9.5%
21.6%
48.6%
16.6%
15.8%
11.8%
10.8%
25.0%
49.2%
19.6%
17.4%
13.1%
12.6%
28.5%
42.38
n.a
73.85
8.60
73.91
5.61
62.96
6.32
46.14
6.86
29
658
29
31
583
37
37
190
3
53
232
11
75
291
15
37.50
1.68
26.56
35.40
1.89
22.10
29.66
5.83
16.82
21.00
4.77
11.61
14.82
3.79
8.22
Net income
Depreciation and amortization
Change in working capital
Operating cash flow
Exhibit 7. Ratios
Profitability
Gross margin
Operating margin
Pretax margin
Net margin
ROA
ROE
Leverage
Net debt/equity (%)
Interest coverage ratio (x)
Per share data (Rp)
EPS
BVPS
DPS
Multiples (x)
P/E, current
P/BV
EV/EBITDA, current
Source: Danareksa Sekuritas
4
Equity Research
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
MARKET NEWS
Dam construction will be accelerated in June 2015 (BI)
Government targets the entire dam projects to be built in 2015 will be accelerated in June and July after the delayed due to
some technical issues. Ministry of Public Works stated that until now only four dams that have been contracted and began
construction from the total of 13 dams targeted to be built this year. The thirteen dams to be built this year will absorb
Rp11.87tn construction costs.
Sinarmas’ Puradelta Aims to Pocket Up to Rp3.8tn from IPO (TJP)
Integrated property firm Puradelta Lestari, part of Sinarmas Land, looks to raise up to Rp3.8tn in its IPO this month to support its
business expansion. The IPO will offer 10.84bn shares, equal to 20% of the company’s enlarged capital. The IPO price is set at
between Rp210-350/share, meaning that the company could pocket Rp2.28-3.79tn from the offering. The company planned to
use 60% of the proceeds to finance the construction of infrastructure and property in its flagship project Kota Deltamas in
Bekasi, West Java, while about 30% of the funds would be used to acquire a new plot of land in the area. The company aimed to
be listed in the bourse on May 29, 2015.
Waskita Get Green Light for Legundi-Bunder Toll Road (BI)
The Government has given its approval for the Legundi-Bunder toll road project in East Java, initiated by Waskita. The Indonesia
Toll Road Authority (BPJT) stated that the toll road proposal has been approved by the Ministry Public Works, hence the tender
will be commenced soon. In the meantime, Waskita also has gained support from the Provincial Government of East Java in
order to accelerate the process of land acquisition. Investment cost is estimated to reach Rp4.3tn with Waskita ownership will
be 48%, 32% private and 20% government.
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity
Valuation
Danareksa Universe
Auto
Astra International
Gajah Tunggal
Selamat Sempurna
Banks
BCA
BNI
BRI
Bank Tabungan Negara
Bank Mandiri
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan
Cement
Holcim
Indocement
Semen Indonesia
Construction
Jasa Marga
Wijaya Karya
Pembangunan Perumahan
Adhi Karya
Waskita Karya
Wika Beton
Consumer
Indofood CBP
Indofood
Unilever
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
Mandom
Heavy Equipment
Hexindo Adiperkasa
United Tractors
Healthcare
Kalbe Farma
Kimia Farma
Siloam Hospital
Mining
Adaro Energy
Timah
Vale Indonesia
Aneka Tambang
Bukit Asam
Indo Tambangraya Megah
Harum Energy
Plantation
Astra Agro Lestari
Sampoerna Agro
PP London Sumatra
Salim Ivomas Pratama
Property
Alam Sutera
Bumi Serpong Damai
Metropolitan Land
Surya Semesta Internusa
Lippo Karawaci
Telco & Infrastructure
XL Axiata
Indosat
Telkom
Sarana Menara Nusantara
Tower Bersama
MNC Sky Vision
Tranportation
Blue Bird
Utility
PGN
Retail
Mitra Adi Perkasa
Ramayana
Ace Hardware
Rating
Price (Rp)
Price
Mkt Cap
Target
Rp Bn
HOLD
BUY
BUY
7,100
1,060
4,640
8,300
1,500
5,300
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
13,725
6,475
11,625
1,125
11,175
4,000
14,050
7,450
13,800
1,400
13,600
5,450
HOLD
BUY
BUY
1,550
22,800
12,725
2,300
28,300
18,800
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
6,375
2,975
3,890
2,685
1,650
975
8,200
4,000
4,600
3,700
2,100
1,350
HOLD
BUY
SELL
HOLD
BUY
13,600
6,875
43,000
1,105
20,000
13,800
8,050
30,000
1,200
19,300
HOLD
HOLD
3,000
21,300
3,650
22,200
HOLD
BUY
BUY
1,825
1,250
15,100
1,900
1,500
15,750
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
845
775
2,760
780
9,350
12,900
1,200
1,150
1,400
4,200
1,100
13,500
18,500
1,750
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
20,250
1,795
1,380
640
27,100
2,600
2,090
850
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
650
1,890
420
1,145
1,305
700
2,100
620
1,040
1,200
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
4,090
4,000
2,765
3,975
8,400
1,600
5,500
3,820
3,050
4,525
9,625
1,410
BUY
8,225
12,200
BUY
3,950
6,650
BUY
BUY
BUY
5,500
755
640
6,250
910
920
Net profit, Rp bn
2015
2016
EPS (Rp)
2015
EPS Growth
2016
2,981,502
199,357
226,971
331.1
377.0
300,654
287,433
3,694
6,680
1,041,919
338,390
120,750
286,779
11,889
260,750
23,361
171,288
11,877
83,932
75,479
109,866
43,350
18,294
18,837
4,837
16,050
8,498
477,371
79,301
60,365
328,090
5,593
4,021
81,972
2,520
79,452
109,947
85,547
6,943
17,457
107,028
27,028
5,772
27,424
7,440
21,544
14,576
3,244
54,819
31,889
3,393
9,416
10,122
87,836
12,772
36,376
3,183
5,388
30,116
427,532
34,934
21,736
278,712
40,557
40,291
11,302
20,580
20,580
95,754
95,754
25,463
9,130
5,357
10,976
24,660
23,976
266
419
84,332
19,127
12,142
27,391
1,357
22,087
2,228
12,525
923
5,741
5,861
4,577
1,600
843
694
399
646
396
13,909
3,033
4,098
6,365
203
210
5,764
220
5,544
2,841
2,481
257
102
8,963
2,095
651
2,375
194
1,746
1,782
119
5,510
2,770
464
1,055
1,221
5,943
1,254
2,369
290
464
1,565
20,711
1,208
312
15,554
1,702
1,933
2
1,253
1,253
11,088
11,088
1,376
352
409
615
29,165
28,096
633
437
96,420
21,921
13,914
31,497
1,609
24,946
2,533
15,375
1,213
6,595
7,567
5,552
1,877
1,004
856
531
792
491
15,544
3,308
4,422
7,332
256
226
6,341
260
6,081
3,344
2,895
316
133
10,056
2,202
765
2,566
400
1,939
1,982
202
5,938
2,832
550
1,133
1,423
6,634
1,516
2,617
322
415
1,763
23,936
1,776
588
16,458
2,121
2,570
423
1,554
1,554
10,313
10,313
1,698
543
444
711
451.7
592
76
291
782.9
767
651
1,110
129
947
381
725
120
1,559
988
120
422
137
143
221
66
45
506
520
467
834
40
1,045
1,261
262
1,486
53
53
47
89
138
66
87
239
20
803
1,577
44
211
1,759
245
155
77
80
64
135
38
99
72
151
141
57
158
167
380
0
501
501
457
457
53
212
58
36
534.3
694
182
303
895.1
879
746
1,277
153
1,069
434
890
158
1,792
1,276
146
547
164
177
295
81
56
565
567
504
961
51
1,126
1,387
309
1,630
62
62
56
115
155
69
103
258
42
892
1,755
75
227
1,798
291
166
90
89
77
150
43
88
82
175
208
108
168
208
462
60
621
621
425
425
66
327
63
41
2015
PER (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
PBV (x)
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
12%
14%
15.0
13.1
13.0
11.8
2.7
2.4
15%
16%
-1%
14%
13%
15%
13%
13%
22%
11%
19%
7%
12%
8%
5%
24%
25%
37%
30%
23%
28%
32%
10%
16%
5%
11%
8%
8%
4%
13%
3%
18%
18%
12%
64%
5%
2%
40%
17%
-148%
-13%
-15%
-53%
11%
4%
18%
8%
33%
-25%
15%
-36%
14%
32%
-38%
33%
-236%
-152%
6%
35%
38%
-101%
62%
62%
3%
3%
28%
112%
9%
17%
18%
17%
139%
4%
14%
15%
15%
15%
19%
13%
14%
23%
31%
15%
29%
21%
30%
19%
23%
33%
23%
24%
12%
9%
8%
15%
28%
8%
10%
18%
10%
18%
17%
19%
30%
12%
5%
18%
8%
106%
11%
11%
69%
8%
2%
19%
7%
17%
12%
21%
10%
11%
-11%
13%
16%
47%
89%
6%
25%
22%
19638%
24%
24%
-7%
-7%
23%
54%
9%
14%
12.2
12.0
13.9
16.0
12.4
17.9
9.9
10.5
8.7
11.8
10.5
13.7
12.9
14.6
12.9
24.0
15.1
21.7
27.2
12.1
25.0
21.5
34.3
26.1
14.7
51.6
27.6
19.1
14.2
11.5
14.3
38.7
34.5
26.6
170.5
11.9
12.9
8.9
11.5
38.3
11.6
8.2
27.2
9.9
11.5
7.3
8.9
8.3
14.8
10.2
14.0
11.0
11.6
18.0
20.6
28.9
69.7
17.5
23.8
22.1
5,273.4
16.4
16.4
8.6
8.6
18.5
25.9
13.1
17.8
10.3
10.2
5.8
15.3
10.8
15.6
8.7
9.1
7.3
10.5
9.2
11.1
9.8
12.7
10.0
19.8
11.7
18.2
22.0
9.1
20.4
17.3
30.7
24.0
13.6
44.7
21.7
17.8
12.9
9.7
13.1
32.9
29.5
22.3
131.4
10.6
12.3
7.5
10.7
18.6
10.5
7.4
16.1
9.2
11.3
6.2
8.3
7.1
13.2
8.4
12.6
9.9
13.0
16.0
17.9
19.7
37.0
16.5
19.1
18.2
26.7
13.2
13.2
9.3
9.3
15.0
16.8
12.1
15.6
9.8
10.0
4.7
9.2
8.5
8.6
4.5
8.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
8.3
6.8
8.7
8.3
11.7
14.7
9.0
10.6
6.3
12.7
11.2
20.5
18.1
7.1
36.0
13.6
10.3
6.2
5.5
6.2
24.0
23.6
17.8
29.8
5.4
4.5
4.4
5.3
14.3
8.4
3.7
2.3
5.4
6.9
4.8
4.4
4.3
11.0
9.4
12.2
7.4
5.4
13.5
6.2
5.6
3.8
5.6
11.9
14.4
10.5
9.2
9.2
5.8
5.8
9.2
8.5
6.5
12.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
7.3
5.3
7.3
7.8
10.0
13.2
7.5
8.7
5.4
10.3
9.0
18.6
17.0
6.5
31.6
10.7
9.5
5.3
4.3
5.3
20.0
20.2
14.4
22.1
4.8
4.0
3.9
4.5
10.7
7.3
3.3
1.8
4.9
6.4
4.1
3.6
3.8
9.7
8.0
10.8
6.9
5.5
11.5
5.7
4.9
3.4
5.2
10.1
12.2
8.9
7.5
7.5
6.3
6.3
7.8
7.0
5.8
10.6
2.1
2.1
0.6
4.7
2.4
3.6
1.8
2.4
0.9
2.2
1.7
2.6
1.1
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.5
3.1
6.3
2.3
4.8
3.4
9.1
5.0
2.1
60.9
5.0
2.8
1.9
0.9
2.0
7.7
8.1
3.4
9.9
1.1
0.8
1.1
1.2
0.6
2.3
1.4
0.8
1.4
2.7
1.0
1.2
0.7
2.0
1.8
2.4
1.5
1.8
1.9
3.5
2.3
1.4
3.8
6.2
3.3
6.9
4.6
4.6
2.3
2.3
2.8
3.2
1.5
3.9
1.8
1.9
0.5
4.0
2.1
3.0
1.5
2.0
0.8
1.9
1.4
2.3
1.0
2.6
2.4
3.2
3.1
2.6
5.1
1.9
4.1
2.9
8.3
4.5
1.9
54.5
4.1
2.5
1.8
0.9
1.8
6.7
7.0
3.0
9.2
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.6
2.1
1.4
0.9
1.3
2.5
0.9
1.1
0.6
1.8
1.5
2.1
1.3
1.6
1.7
3.2
2.1
1.3
3.5
4.9
2.8
5.5
3.7
3.7
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.7
1.4
3.2
Net Gearing
ROE
2015
2015
19.1
33.5
80.8
net cash
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
30.0
net cash
12.3
116.4
8.9
18.0
66.5
39.2
net cash
net cash
18.1
net cash
71.7
2.6
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
64.2
33.0
10.2
2.6
62.8
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
31.8
net cash
37.6
75.3
net cash
27.7
net cash
29.1
114.2
132.4
net cash
107.9
120.9
150.1
47.8
net cash
84.7
net cash
net cash
18.6
19.1
4.4
32.3
21.4
22.4
19.1
25.2
10.6
19.8
17.2
20.0
9.1
21.2
23.2
16.7
13.4
15.4
25.8
20.8
20.9
17.1
28.2
20.3
15.1
129.7
19.5
15.3
14.1
8.0
14.5
21.1
25.1
13.4
6.0
9.4
6.2
12.4
11.0
1.6
19.7
18.0
3.1
14.9
24.5
14.5
13.9
8.2
14.4
18.9
16.6
14.2
16.9
10.1
18.1
8.3
2.0
22.1
29.8
23.9
0.1
32.3
32.3
28.7
28.7
15.7
13.0
11.8
23.8
Equity Research
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
LEADERS
Price as on
Code
04-May-2015
30-Apr-2015
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
Rating
(4.0)
27.9
BUY
Lippo Karawaci
LPKR
1,305
1,185
10.1
(0.8)
Indocement
INTP
22,800
21,000
8.6
(2.3)
2.9
(8.8)
BUY
Siloam Hospital
SILO
15,100
14,200
6.3
7.7
13.1
10.2
BUY
Telkom
TLKM
2,765
2,615
5.7
(4.8)
(1.6)
(3.0)
HOLD
Alam Sutera
ASRI
650
615
5.7
(3.0)
6.6
16.1
BUY
Bank Mandiri
BMRI
11,175
10,750
4.0
(6.1)
(9.0)
3.7
BUY
Astra International
ASII
7,100
6,850
3.6
(9.8)
(12.1)
(4.4)
HOLD
Indofood CBP
ICBP
13,600
13,200
3.0
(3.5)
(5.1)
3.8
HOLD
Jasa Marga
JSMR
6,375
6,200
2.8
(7.3)
(10.2)
(9.6)
BUY
Indo Tambangraya Megah
ITMG
12,900
12,600
2.4
(12.4)
(23.2)
(16.1)
HOLD
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
(13.4)
(19.3)
(37.0)
BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS
Code
Timah
TINS
Waskita Karya
Perusahaan Gas Negara
Price as on
04-May-2015 30-Apr-2015
Rating
775
815
(4.9)
WSKT
1,650
1,720
(4.1)
(7.6)
(2.9)
12.2
BUY
PGAS
3,950
4,100
(3.7)
(14.9)
(17.6)
(34.2)
BUY
Gajah Tunggal
GJTL
1,060
1,100
(3.6)
(11.7)
(17.8)
(25.6)
BUY
Adaro Energy
ADRO
845
875
(3.4)
(12.9)
(13.8)
(18.8)
BUY
PP London Sumatra
LSIP
1,380
1,425
(3.2)
(9.2)
(17.6)
(27.0)
HOLD
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
ROTI
1,105
1,140
(3.1)
(3.9)
(7.9)
(20.2)
HOLD
Surya Semesta Internusa
SSIA
1,145
1,180
(3.0)
(6.1)
2.2
7.0
HOLD
Adhi Karya
ADHI
2,685
2,765
(2.9)
(9.7)
(8.8)
(22.8)
BUY
Ramayana
RALS
755
775
(2.6)
(6.8)
1.3
(4.4)
BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity Research
Tuesday, May 05, 2015
Disclaimer
The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas and/or its affiliated
companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents makes any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or
in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such
information or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof.
We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents
whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action , suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought
against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas, its
affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any
liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission there from which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
The information contained in this report is not be taken as any recommendation made by P.T. Danareksa Sekuritas or any other person to enter into any agreement
with regard to any investment mentioned in this document. This report is prepared for general circulation. It does not have regards to the specific person who may
receive this report. In considering any investments you should make your own independent assessment and seek your own professional financial and legal advice.
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research