Tuesday, 28 April 2015 OVERWEIGHT Foreign fund flow 2015 Ytd Regional Performance Weekly Report Reality bites The Indonesian market took a beating yesterday, with the JCI slumping 3.5% on large foreign outflows. In our view, investor concerns are currently centered on three main issues: 1. Disappointing 1Q15 results; 2. Weak 1Q15 GDP figures; and 3. The imminent executions of a number of death row inmates which could disrupt bilateral relations and economic partnerships. In our view, the auto parts, construction, consumer and healthcare sectors can still deliver good performance, while the autos, cement, commodities and retail sectors may be more likely to underperform in 1Q15. Market meltdown: 3.5% collapse on Monday Indonesian stocks took a major hit yesterday, down 3.5% with huge foreign outflows of IDR2.2tn. In our view, there are three main issues which may reduce investor appetite for stocks in the short term; 1. Disappointing 1Q15 results. This does not come as a major surprise to us, however, as we have been expecting most corporates to report weaker-than-expected performance in 1Q15 given that several sectors have shown demand weakness since earlier this year. The weak IDR ytd has also put further pressure on margins, 2. Weak 1Q15 GDP figures - which would open up the possibility of the government revising down its 2015 economic growth target of 5.7% and 3. The signal given by the Indonesian government that it will go ahead with the executions of a number of inmates convicted of serious drugs offenses, all of whom but one are foreigners, which will potentially harm bilateral relations – especially economic – with several countries, most notably Australia, Brazil and France. Longer term, Indonesia’s main story remains the prospect of massive government infrastructure spending - which will be more prevalent in the second half. 1Q15: the good and the bad In regard to the 1Q15 results, there are seven companies under our coverage that have released their results so far (exhibit 17). The consumer stocks appear to have delivered better-thanexpected results, with margins improvement on the back of better costs management. The banking sector has shown steady performance, yet with a slight deterioration in NPLs. By contrast, commodities have been the worst performer, hit by soft demand and lower commodity prices, which have squeezed margins and hurt the bottom line. In our view, despite the general weakness seen in the domestic economy, there are still several sectors which can still deliver good performance, namely: the auto parts, construction, consumer and health care sectors. By contrast, the autos, cement, hard and soft commodities, and retail sectors are more likely to deliver weak results. The performance of banking, property and telcos should still be within expectations. 2015 Ytd Sector Performance Automotive Auto-parts Banking Cement Helmy Kristanto (62-21) 2955 5824 h elm yk@d an ar eksa.co m Armando Marulitua (62-21) 2955 5817 ar m an d o m @d an ar eksa.co m Construction Danareksa research reports are also available at Reuters Multex and First Call Direct and Bloomberg. Consumer Demand for both 4W and 2W has been exceptionally weak this year, with car sales down 14.1% y-y in 1Q15 and 2W sales down 25% y-y. Adding to the sector’s woes is the considerable depreciation of the IDR, which will put further pressure on margins. Stiff competition from Honda also weakened the dominance of Toyota and Daihatsu: Toyota’s market share fell 5ppt y-y while Daihatsu’s is flat. Revenues should grow in-line with our mid-teens projection given higher exports. The higher exports portion should be sufficient to counter the slowdown in the domestic auto industry. In addition, better margins can also be expected given the higher exports portion and subdued raw material prices during the period. The 1Q15 results will likely be inline with our numbers – albeit with slightly lower-thanexpected loans growth. We also believe that the blended CoF in 1Q15 should be relatively flat on a QoQ basis. Nonetheless, assets quality will deteriorate slightly in our view due to the slower economic growth in the country. BBCA will likely outperform, supported by its low blended CoF with good assets quality. However, we maintain our HOLD call on the stock as the valuation is already rich at 3.9x PBV for 2015F. Cement demand has been fairly weak this year, with 1Q15 domestic sales down 3.2% y-y, despite expectations of stronger property demand and more government projects. The weak cement demand has also sparked concerns over a potential price war, although we believe it is still too early to conclude that such a scenario will unfold. In 2H, cement demand is likely to strengthen, underpinned by the start of major infrastructure projects. Among the large cement companies, Semen Indonesia has outperformed with its market share expanding to 44.8%. The first quarter is always the slowest quarter for the construction sector. However, we believe that only PTPP and WSKT can deliver growth above 20%y-y in 1Q15 given their huge backlog orders. WIKA’s growth, by comparison, will be in the low-to-mid teens, while ADHI might potentially still record declining growth. Gauging from the consumer staples companies that have reported their earnings so far, we note that despite slower top line growth, the companies have booked better-than-expected margins, helped by weaker commodity prices. Under the current conditions, while we believe 28 April 2015 Weekly Report Healthcare Coal Mining Metal Mining Plantations Property Telecommun ications Towers Media Oil and gas Retail that raising ASP may only be appropriate for select goods, and that sales volumes are unlikely to increase - thus limiting growth - the defensive nature of the products should keep revenues buoyant. Furthermore, cost-savings, which may come from lower raw material prices and lower transportation costs, should pave the way for better results. That said, in the midst of an economic slowdown in which most companies’ earnings are declining, consumer staples may provide a shelter for its defensiveness. Given its defensive characteristics, demand for healthcare in 1Q15 will remain solid in our view. This will be reflected in the solid topline growth of hospitals and pharmaceutical companies. Challenges have emerged for pharmaceutical companies, however, given the persistent rupiah depreciation in 2015. This will result in higher raw material costs. In this regard, we expect the margins of pharmaceutical companies to come under pressure, thus hitting 1Q15 profitability. The impact will be less severe for companies which have the ability to pass on higher costs like Kalbe Farma. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the weaker rupiah to have a significant impact on the hospitals business. Hence, hospital operators should record solid earnings growth and sound profitability in 1Q15, in our view. Unfavorable coal prices (down by 20% yoy in 1Q15), which led several coal producers to either maintain or cut production, will be reflected in weak 1Q15 results of companies operating in Indonesia’s coal mining sector. However, we believe that the impact from the slump in crude oil prices – which accounts for about 5 – 30% of the total production costs may cushion performance in 1Q15. In Indonesia’s coal mining sector, we continue to like Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) given expectations of double-digit coal production going forward supported by a) the start of operations of several infrastructure projects, such as the Tarahan port facility and upgrading of railway capacity in 1H15 and b) the operation of its new power plant at Banjarsari, which will require about 1.4mn tons of coal per annum. With the average LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel price down by only 2% yoy to US$14,380/ton in 1Q15, we believe that the companies with greater exposure to nickel may maintain their net profits in 1Q15 as we foresee that those companies benefitted from the slump in crude oil prices since energy costs account for about 35 – 40% of the total cost of production. We continue to like Vale Indonesia (INCO) as a result of greater nickel exposure and the company’s focus on continued efficiency as well as a lower cost of production thanks to the slump in crude oil prices. However, in the tin sector, the 19% yoy decline in the LME tin price is reflected in the weak result of Timah (TINS) in 1Q15. Despite low production due to seasonality, the CPO price weakened further in 1Q15, averaging MYR2,265/tonne, down 16% y-y. Demand is also fairly soft, putting more pressure on the financials of plantations companies in 1Q15. As a result, the 1Q15 figures are expected to be below expectations. Nonetheless, positive support for CPO prices over the longer term might come from more stringent implementation of the mandatory biodiesel program in Indonesia, for which the content was recently raised to 15% from 10%. While execution continues to remain unclear, we see more serious efforts from the government, especially with the implementation of the USD50/tonne levy, which will partly be used to support the subsidies given in the biodiesel program. Results from the property sector will be broadly in line with estimates, following the construction progress of projects. Note that we didn’t expect any extraordinary income in our calculations for all the property companies under our coverage. The bottom line might be volatile for property companies which have a large portion of USD debt in their balance sheet, such as ASRI and LPKR in our coverage. Unlike other property companies, MTLA’s housing sales are affected by seasonality – most revenues are booked in the fourth quarter. In terms of marketing sales, no significant project launches took place in 1Q15. Results will be relatively in line with estimates at the operating level given the defensive nature of the sector. The bottom line may be quite volatile, however, for ISAT and EXCL given the high portion of USD-denominated debt in the balance sheet. For XL, gains from the sale of towers should be recognized in 1Q15. XL will start amortizing deferred revenues related to the sale and leaseback of its towers at a rate of IDR450bn per annum (gain), which should partly cushion its bottom line. The operating result should be weak for TBIG which will stop recognizing revenues from BTel (other tower providers stopped recognizing revenues from BTel in 4Q14). Also, there is a potential of devaluation of investment properties at TBIG from the exclusion of tenancies (and future revenues) from BTel. For the other two tower operators (TOWR and SUPR), operating results should be in line with estimates. The operating results should be weak but in line for MNC Sky Vision given lackluster economic growth which will likely translate into slow subs growth. In addition, 5% Rupiah depreciation in the quarter will result in forex losses of around IDR15bn from its USD-denominated debt. The result from PGN will be weak given the absence of LNG sales in 1Q15 due to poor demand from PLN. Sales volume will be down by 40-50mmcfd on a quarterly basis. We expect weak results overall for companies within the retail sector in 1Q15, looking at the operational numbers that have been announced. The economic slowdown has translated into lower consumer purchasing power, which directly leads to lower demand for retail products. 2 28 April 2015 Weekly Report For most retailers in our coverage (ACES and RALS), the SSG was negative in 1Q15, with the weakest performance booked in the out of Java stores. For MAPI, we don’t expect profitability to improve in 1Q15, as the inventory level was still high at the end of 2014. Besides that, the first quarter has always been the quietest quarter for the sector; hence, performance should improve in the following quarters. Exhibit 1. Regional weekly performance Exhibit 2. Regional Ytd 2015 performance Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr 2015 Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr 2015 Exhibit 3. Sector weekly performance Exhibit 4. Sector Ytd 2015 performance Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr 2015 Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr 2015 Exhibit 5. Average daily transactions Exhibit 6. Foreign fund flows Source: IDX, as of 24 Apr 2015 Source: IDX, as of 24 Apr 2015 3 28 April 2015 Weekly Report Exhibit 7. Regional market valuations 2015F 2016F Philippines 20.1 17.8 Malaysia 17.1 15.7 NKY 19.1 17.3 Singapore 14.4 13.1 JCI 16.3 13.8 Dow Jones 16.3 14.9 Sensex 15.4 13.0 Thailand 15.5 13.5 FTSE 16.9 14.5 Hongkong 13.5 12.0 China 17.7 15.2 Taiwan 13.8 12.3 Average 16.0 14.1 Exhibit 8. JCI Valuation Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr 2015 Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Apr 2015 Exhibit 9. USD/IDR performance Exhibit 10. CDS - 5 years Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr2015 Source: Bloomberg, as of 24 Apr 2015 Exhibit 11. Danareksa bonds yield index Exhibit 12. Country risk premium Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Apr 2015 Source: Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Apr 2015 4 28 April 2015 Weekly Report Exhibit 13. Winners within our coverage Exhibit 14. Losers within our coverage Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Apr 2015 Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Apr 2015 Exhibit 15. Winners within our coverage (Weekly) Exhibit 16. Losers within our coverage (Weekly) Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Apr 2015 Source: Bloomberg and Danareksa Sekuritas, as of 24 Apr 2015 Exhibit 17. 1Q15 Result Wrap Revenue (Rp bn) Actual BBNI (NII) UNVR Result Estimate (FY15) YoY Growth (%) 6,097 25,115 Net Profit (Rp bn) A/F Actual 15 24.3 SILO 35 Result Estimate (FY15) YoY Growth (%) 102 A/F 30 34.3 9,413 38,915 8 24.2 ROTI 67 203 (0) 33.1 10,945 45,736 22 23.9 UNVR 1,592 6,091 17 26.1 ROTI 519 2,249 16 23.1 BMRI 5,138 22,087 4 23.3 SILO 976 4,791 30 20.4 BBNI 2,817 12,142 18 23.2 TINS 1,356 6,680 10 20.3 AALI 156 2,770 (80) 5.6 AALI 3,233 16,618 (13) 19.5 TINS (19) 651 (120) -2.9 32,539 140,104 34 23.2 Overall FY14 Result 1.4 22.2 BMRI (NII) Overall FY14 Result 9,786 44,046 Source: Companies 5 28 April 2015 Weekly Report Exhibit 18. One-week report wrap Date Company Title 27-Apr-15 UNTR 23-Apr-15 BBTN 22-Apr-15 MSKY 21-Apr-15 Weekly report Komatsu sales volume remained weak in Mar After United Tractors (UNTR) reported better monthly Komatsu sales volume in Feb 2015 (+12.7% mom), its 2015 sales volume went down by 11.3% mom in Mar 2015 with unfavorable commodity price resulted on a decline in sales volume for mining sector. As such, its Komatsu sales volume was still declined by 37.0% yoy to 763 units in 1Q15. Maintain HOLD. Facing a challenging but promising future In 2015, the new government’s “one million houses” program should support BBTN’s business. Yet funding scheme is the key factor with the most possible scenario on raising government’s portion to 90%. As such, for 2015F, we expect the bank’s mortgage loans to grow by 18.9%. Going forward, we expect assets quality to improve with the gross NPLs of 3.7% as of December 2015F. Maintain BUY. Challenging outlook We believe continue challenging economic condition in 2015 will translate to another weak growth in pay TV industry. With expected weak economic growth in 2015, we believe that subs growth will not be overly exciting this year and cut our industry subs growth estimate to 8% from 14% previously. Also, intense competition in the industry makes it difficult for the company to increase package price, thus increasing ARPU is a tall order presently. Hold with TP of IDR1,410. The conduit of action The IDR finally bucked its downward trend, appreciating 1.5% MTD after the government took decisive measures to support the currency. Furthermore, trade surpluses in three-straight months have created a more favorable outlook for the CAD, which, in turn, provides the foundations for further IDR strengthening. Maintain Overweight. Key Point Source: Danareksa Sekuritas 6 Danareksa Quant Model 28 April 2015 Weekly Report DQM model commentary: Last week the JCI strengthen, up 0.5% w-w underpinned by a jump in consumer sector's stocks. This is inline with our model's prediction last week. This week, our DQM model forecast a weakening in the market with most big caps stocks are expected to record negative w-w performance. Most of big caps stocks will fall into red territory according to our model. Nevertheless, our model also forecasts some stocks such as ASII, BMRI and BBRI to record a positive w-w performance. (Please see the details in the table above). 8
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