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Equity Research
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
MORNING HIGHLIGHT
Key Index
FROM RESEARCH
Market outlook - Weak 1Q15 GDP: A wake up call for the
government (OVERWEIGHT)
Despite softer growth expectation on 1Q15 GDP, the real 4.7% growth was
a surprised. The weakness mainly came from continued soft situation on
commodity, the main driver of export in Indonesia. We believe such a weak
GDP figures would serve as a strong wake up call for the government, for
either to make more reasonable revision on its target of 5.8% growth
target or make a stronger and more meaningful infrastructure spending.
Given the recent inauguration of several massive infra projects, arguably
the government prefers the latter than the former at this stage.
Close
Chg
Ytd
Vol
(%)
(%)
(US$ m)
378
Asean - 5
Indonesia
5,160
0.4
(1.3)
Thailand
1,527
0.3
1.9
-
Philippines
7,919
1.3
9.5
164
Malaysia
1,827
0.5
3.8
605
Singapore
3,471
(0.3)
3.2
676
Regional
China
4,299
(4.1)
32.9
116,133
Hong Kong
27,756
(1.3)
17.6
22,936
Japan
19,532
0.1
11.9
13,897
Korea
2,116
(0.8)
10.5
5,712
(DILD IJ. Rp 660. Not Rated)
Taiwan
9,820
(0.3)
5.5
2,972
Intiland Development (DILD) is one of the leading property companies in
Indonesia with a track record of more than 40 years, in which time it has
developed over 40 projects in Jakarta and Surabaya. The company focuses
on developing superblocks and high rise residential projects, targeting the
middle to middle-up segments. Supported by its ongoing projects, earnings
should grow by 65.3% CAGR from 2009-2015F. In September 2014, the
company’s assets were appraised by Colliers Indonesia, who came up with
a total appraisal value of Rp19,147 bn. Using this figure, the current share
price offers an attractive valuation at a 57% discount to NAV.
India
27,440
(0.2)
(0.2)
496
4,939
(1.5)
4.3
79,883
17,928
(0.8)
0.6
8,110
Intiland Development: Enticing valuation
NASDAQ
Dow Jones
Currency and Interest Rate
w-w
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
13,062
(0.5)
(0.8)
(5.4)
6.67
(0.3)
(0.3)
(0.6)
7.96
0.2
0.7
0.2
Rate
Rupiah
(Rp/1US$)
SBI rate
(%)
10-y Govt Indo bond
Hard Commodities
MARKET NEWS
Unit
*Analysts’ comment inside




Capex realization: Pharmaceutical Companies Not Yet Aggressive (BI)
Coal production: HRUM Cut Target to 5 Million Tons (BI)
Infrastructure Project: BRI Prepare Rp10 trillion (BI)
KIJA to Issue US$70mn Global Bonds (ID)
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
(27.0)
Coal
US$/ton
62
n/a
(0.6)
Gold
US$/toz
1,195
0.1
(1.7)
0.8
Nickel
US$/mt.ton
14,258
4.0
9.9
(5.4)
Tin
US$/mt.ton
16,069
0.6
(4.0)
(17.3)
Soft Commodities
Unit
Price
d-d
m-m
ytd
(%)
(%)
(%)
IDX ANNOUNCEMENT
Cocoa
US$/mt.ton
2,929
(1.9)
4.8
2.4
Cash Announcement
Corn
US$/mt.ton
137
0.7
(5.8)
(14.4)
Crude Oil
US$/barrel
Palm oil
MYR/mt.ton
Rubber
Pulp
Code
Ex-Date
Date Payable
Amount (Rp)
PGAS
WTON
KAEF
ACST
Source: KSEI
14-Apr-15
15-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
16-Apr-15
8-May-15
5-May-15
8-May-15
4-May-15
144.84
11.82
8.45
42.00
68
0.3
16.5
18.1
2,083
0.6
(4.4)
(19.0)
USd/kg
155
(0.1)
9.5
1.6
US$/tonne
855
n/a
(2.8)
(5.7)
Coffee
US$/60kgbag
131
(0.1)
(4.1)
33.4
Sugar
US$/MT
372
(0.3)
1.3
(4.9)
Wheat
US$/mt.ton
172
0.4
(11.2)
(21.6)
Source: Bloomberg
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity Research
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
PT Danareksa Sekuritas
Jl. Medan Merdeka Selatan No. 14
Jakarta 10110
Indonesia
Tel
(62 21) 29 555 777
Fax
(62 21) 350 1709
Equity Research Team
Agriculture
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Auto Component
Banking
Cement
Coal
Construction
Consumer
Heavy Equipment
Media
Metal Mining
Pharmaceutical
Property
Retail
Strategy
Telecommunication
Transportation
Utilities
Research Associate
Helmy Kristanto
Helmy Kristanto
Joko Sogie
Eka Savitri
Helmy Kristanto
Stefanus Darmagiri
Joko Sogie
Jennifer Frederika Yapply
Stefanus Darmagiri
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Stefanus Darmagiri
Armando Marulitua
Anindya Saraswati
Anindya Saraswati
Helmy Kristanto
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Joko Sogie
Lucky Ariesandi, CFA
Puti Adani
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Sales team
Ermawati A. Erman
Asfarita Andalusia
Novrita E. Putrianti
Ehrliech Suhartono
Yunita L. Nababan
Bram Taarea
Martin Joshua
Laksmita Armandani
Muhammad Hardiansyah
Tuty Sutopo
Upik Yuzarni
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(62 21) 29555 888 ext. 3151
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Wednesday, 6 May 2015
Market outlook
OVERWEIGHT
Weak 1Q15 GDP: A wake-up call for the government
YE15 Target
5,900
JCI Index
5,160
Mar ket Cap . (Rp t n )
US$ (b n )
1Y Avg. d aily T/O. (Rp b n )
US$ (m n )
5,404
410
6,670
506
JCI Valuation
USD/IDR
Although softer GDP growth had been expected in 1Q15, the announcement of real
GDP growth of 4.7% still came as a surprise. The low number mainly owed to the
continued weakness in commodities, the main driver of exports in Indonesia. We
believe that such a weak GDP figure will serve as a strong wake-up call for the
government, either to make more reasonable revisions to its 5.8% growth target or to
make more efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending. Given the recent
inauguration of several huge infrastructure projects, it looks, at this stage, as if the
government prefers the latter.
1Q15 GDP growth of only 4.7%
While the 1Q15 corporate results had provided an indication that the 1Q15 GDP growth
would fail to reach the 5% mark, the announcement of only 4.7% growth was
nonetheless a surprise, well below the consensus of 4.9% and our forecast of 5.0%. The
poor number mainly owed to the continued weakness in commodities - especially with
Indonesia’s main trading partners such as China also facing stern economic challenges.
In 1Q15, mining was the only sector in Indonesia to record a contraction, with growth
down 2.32% y-y. By contrast, telecoms and IT posted the fastest growth of 10.53% y-y,
followed by the financial & insurance sector (+7.57%) and corporate services (+7.36%).
The construction sector, although it booked a 5.94% decline on a q-q basis, still showed
decent 6% growth on a y-y basis.
In our view, Indonesia’s high dependency on commodity exports has increased the
vulnerability of the domestic economy, especially given that demand for commodities is
strongly affected by global economic conditions. In that regard, the government has
been contemplating the idea of shunning away from a commodity-oriented focus,
placing more stringent controls on the exports of several commodities. Nonetheless, this
cannot happen immediately as other sectors - such as manufacturing – will need more
time before they can make more significant contributions.
The weak economic data will put more pressure on the government
Early signs of a weakening economy were arguably first seen in early 2014, with GDP
growth only climbing close to the 5% level before falling to 4.92% in 3Q14. In our view,
the weak 1Q15 GDP figure does not necessarily imply poor delivery capabilities of the
current government, since its all-important infrastructure program will only start to
materialize in 2H15 due to the late approval of the revised government budget in
February 2015. Given the government’s ambitious 5.8% GDP growth target this year, the
weak 1Q15 GDP figure certainly serves as a strong wake-up call for the government,
either to make more reasonable revisions to its 5.8% growth target or to make more
efforts to accelerate infrastructure spending. Given the recent inauguration of several
huge infrastructure projects including toll roads and power plants, it looks, at this stage,
as if the government prefers to accelerate its spending. This should send a more positive
message, in our view.
Indonesia’s transformation story is still on
With the 1Q15 weak corporate results and the disappointing GDP growth figure now
behind us, attention will shift back to macro developments, which, in some part at least,
have been showing encouraging improvements since the beginning of the year. In our
view, there are four main areas of focus, which could act as positive catalysts for the
market: 1. with the huge trade surplus in 1Q15 of USD2.4b, the CAD figures should be
more favorable, a catalyst to revive the ailing currency; 2, with the weak 1Q15 GDP
growth, 2Q15 should show better performance, not only thanks to better business
seasonality than in 1Q but also due to the surge in demand in the period leading up to
Ramadan in mid-July. This should help underpin demand growth in late-2Q15; 3. more
progress on infrastructure development can also be expected, especially regarding the
awarding of infrastructure contracts to construction firms – another development likely
to help bolster investor confidence; and 4. the possibility of more relaxation in the
currently tight-biased monetary policy of the central bank is still wide open, especially in
efforts to support economic growth acceleration.
Market Outlook
6 May 2015
Exhibit 1. GDP Growth Breakdown by Industry
GDP Growth Breakdown by Industry
1
2
3
4
5
Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery
Mining & Quarrying (MQ)
Manufacturing Industry (Mfg)
Electricity & Gas Supply (EG)
Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste &
Recycling Management
6 Construction
7 Wholesales and Retail Trade, Repairs (WR)
8 Transportation & Storage (TS)
9 Accommodation & Food Beverages Activity
(AFB)
10 Information & Communication
11 Financial & Insurance Activity (FI)
12 Real Estate
13 Business Services
14 Public Adm; Defense & Compulsory Social
Security
15 Education Services
16 Human Health & Social Work Activity
17 Other Services
18 Taxes minus subsidy of products
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
1Q15 q-q
(%)
14.63
-9.19
-0.62
-7.34
0.27
1Q15 y-y Contribution
(%)
to GDP (%)
3.80
0.50
-2.32
-0.22
3.87
0.85
1.55
0.02
2.27
0.00
-5.94
-0.70
6.04
3.66
0.57
0.50
-1.17
0.20
6.35
3.56
0.25
0.11
3.06
0.71
1.17
2.24
-6.43
10.53
7.57
5.26
7.36
4.71
0.47
0.28
0.16
0.12
0.16
-10.89
-6.39
1.84
16.39
-0.18
5.92
7.34
8.00
22.65
4.71
0.18
0.08
0.13
0.55
4.71
Exhibit 2. GDP Growth by Expenditure
GDP Growth by Expenditure
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Consumption Expenditure (CE)
CE: Household
CE: Government
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Change in Stock
Export of Goods and Services
Import of Goods and Services
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
1Q15 q-q
(%)
0.11
-1.19
-48.68
-4.72
0.00
-5.98
-9.98
-0.18
1Q15 y-y Contribution
(%)
to GDP (%)
5.01
2.75
-8.25
-0.10
2.21
0.14
4.36
1.40
0.00
0.00
-0.53
-0.13
-2.20
-0.51
4.71
4.71
2
Wednesday, 06 May 2015
PROPERTY/COMPANY VISIT
Intiland Development
Not Rated
Enticing valuation
DILD IJ/DILD.JK
Last Price, Rp
No. of shares (bn)
Market Cap, Rp bn
(US$ mn)
3M T/O, US$mn
660
10.4
6,841
524
1.54
DILD relative to JCI Index
Market Recommendation
Intiland Development (DILD) is one of the leading property companies in Indonesia
with a track record of more than 40 years, in which time it has developed over 40
projects in Jakarta and Surabaya. The company focuses on developing superblocks and
high rise residential projects, targeting the middle to middle-up segments. Supported
by its ongoing projects, earnings should grow by 65.3% CAGR from 2009-2015F. In
September 2014, the company’s assets were appraised by Colliers Indonesia, who
came up with a total appraisal value of Rp19,147 bn. Using this figure, the current
share price offers an attractive valuation at a 57% discount to NAV.
Well-diversified portfolio
In 2007, DILD undertook restructuring, when the company converted Rp1.1 trillion of its
outstanding debt into 2.2 billion shares. Following the restructuring, the company
undertook a rights issue in 2010 raising Rp2.07 trillion in proceeds to strengthen its
balance sheet and vastly increase its land bank inventory. Presently, the company’s
business portfolio comprises: 1) superblocks, 2) high-rise and low-rise residential
property, 3) industrial estates, and 4) investment properties.
In terms of project contribution to total revenues, superblock projects still made the
largest contribution, accounting for 40% of the total revenues in FY14. After superblock
projects came residential property (28%), industrial estates (20%), and investment
properties (12%). The existing and future projects consist of 7 superblock projects, 5
high-rise residential projects, 6 low-rise residential projects, 1 industrial estate, and
more than 6 investment properties.
Exhibit 1. Contribution by segment
Source: Company
Anindya Saraswati
(62-21) 2955 5820
[email protected]
Danareksa research reports are also
available at Reuters Multex and First
Call Direct and Bloomberg.
Targeting 23% yoy earnings growth this year
The company has a solid track record in Indonesia’s property business. Supported by its
projects portfolio, DILD expects to book around Rp3 trillion in marketing sales this year.
The target is 18.3% higher than the marketing sales achieved in FY14 of Rp2,538 bn. In
terms of project contribution, the company’s 1 Park Avenue project will make a
significant contribution to marketing sales, as the company plans to launch the fourth
apartment tower for this project.
Looking back at its performance in 2014, the marketing sales achievement was slightly
below the company’s initial target due to: 1) lower demand for property since 2014 was
an election year and 2) delays in the Kebon Melati project launch as the company needs
more time to obtain a license from Jakarta’s Governor. However, the company remains
optimistic that this year’s target should still be achievable.
6 May 2015
Intiland Development
Exhibit 2. Marketing sales target (Rp bn)
Source: Company
Exhibit 3. Project contribution 2014 (Rp bn)
Exhibit 4. Project contribution 2015F (Rp bn)
Source: Company
Source: Company
As is the case for other property companies, project construction starts around 6
months after launch (pre-sales). This year, the company expects to book around Rp2.5
tn in revenues (+31% yoy) and Rp530 bn in net profits (+23% yoy). In 1Q15, DILD booked
Rp603 bn in revenues and Rp121 bn in net profits. This is pretty much inline with the
company’s guidance for this year.
The proportion of recurring income will be maintained at around its current level, i.e.
around 12% of total revenues, as the company’s development revenues will continue to
grow faster. However, DILD will also add more investment properties to its portfolio to
continue to support its recurring income.
Exhibit 5. Future additional recurring income stream (2015-2019)
Leasable area
No
Project
Property type
(sqm)
1 South Quarter (phase 1)
2 office towers
75,384
retail mall
11,554
2 Kebon Melati
retail mall
8,938
3 Spazio Tower
hotel
102 rooms
retail mall
3,259
multifunction room
1,049
4 Praxis
office
6,800
hotel
288 rooms
retail mall
8,609
5 Kebon Melati II
office
48,509
retail mall
11,141
serviced apartment
9,726
Source: Company
2
6 May 2015
Intiland Development
Attractive projects in its portfolio
The company has a lot of projects located in Jakarta and Surabaya, with total landbank
of almost 2,000 ha (as of December 2014). In particular, the company has identified 7
key projects which have (and will be) the main drivers of growth in the coming years:
1. South Quarter – superblock
This project is a mixed-use and high-rise development project consisting of three office
towers, two residential towers, and supporting retail facilities, and is located in TB
Simatupang, South Jakarta. South Quarter covers a total area of 7.2 ha and is divided
into 2 phases of development. The first phase of development, which covers 4.4 ha, was
launched in 2012 and is expected to be completed in the near term (2Q15). On another
2.7 ha of land, the company will start the second phase of development for this project
next year. DILD launched this project with an ASP at Rp18.9 mn per sqm, although now
the ASP has already reached Rp37 mn per sqm.
2. 1 Park Avenue - residential
Located in a very strategic area in South Jakarta (Gandaria, Kebayoran Baru), this project
is a 2.8 ha high rise residential project, an extension of the company’s existing project
named 1 Park Residences Apartment. The company has sold 85% of the properties in its
three condominium towers with an ASP of Rp37.3 mn per sqm as of FY14. This year,
DILD will launch the fourth apartment tower with total semi gross area of 18,116 sqm.
The expected ASP is much higher at Rp50 mn per sqm, as the company plans to offer
fully-furnished premium apartments at the next launching. Moreover, as DILD got a
higher building coefficient, the company will also launch small townhouses in the area,
with only 31 units to be offered.
3. Regatta - residential
This is a joint venture project between DILD and PT Global Ekabuana (50%), and will
involve the development of a luxury high rise condominium located in Pantai Mutiara,
North Jakarta. This project covers a total area of 11 ha, and will consist of ten apartment
towers, a five-star hotel, a service apartment and an Aqua Park. The first phase of
development (2.5 ha) was 100% completed in 2012. Following the success of the first
phase, the company launched its fifth and sixth residential towers in June 2014 with an
ASP of Rp23.7 mn per sqm.
4. Aeropolis - superblock
Aeropolis is an integrated mixed-use development project that consists of residential
property, offices, a hotel, and commercial and retail developments. This project will
cover a total area of 105 ha in the first phase, and is located 500 meters from SoekarnoHatta International Airport.
5. Kebon Melati - superblock
Located in a very strategic area in Jakarta’s CBD, Kebon Melati has total area of 3.2 ha.
This project will be developed as a mixed-use and high rise development project. Kebon
Melati is a joint venture project with 55% ownership taken by DILD. The company plans
to launch the project this year, and is currently awaiting the license from Jakarta’s
Governor. In the first phase of development, the company will build 2 condominium
towers and a retail mall as supporting facilities.
6. H Island reclamation project - superblock
This future reclamation project covers a total area of 63 ha, which is part of the 17
islands reclamation project initiated by the Jakarta local government. The company has
already obtained the principal permit for this project and is currently waiting for the
reclamation permit. DILD plans to develop this project as a superblock consisting of a
mixed-use development with high rise and low rise residential property, supported by a
commercial area. This project is not included in the company’s NAV calculation.
7. West One City - superblock
A joint venture project with DILD taking 40% ownership, this project is a 21 ha future
superblock project located in West Jakarta. This project will comprise of residential,
retail and commercial properties with other supporting facilities. DILD is currently still in
the process of obtaining the development license for this project, and is expected to
launch the project in 2016.
3
6 May 2015
Intiland Development
Enticing valuation: offering a huge NAV discount
In September 2014, the company’s assets were appraised by Colliers Indonesia. The
total appraisal value reached Rp19,147 bn for total landbank of 1,925 ha. Using Colliers’
numbers, the company’s total RNAV amounts to Rp15,891 bn or equivalent to Rp1,533
RNAV per share. The stock currently trades at Rp660, or a 57% discount to NAV.
Exhibit 6. NAV calculation – appraisal value by Colliers
Assets
Superblock
Kebon Melati
Graha Festival
South Quarter
Aeropolis
Spazio Tower
Praxis
West One City
Subtotal
High-rise Residential
Gandaria
Regatta
Sumatra 36
Pantai Mutiara
Pinang Residence 2
Subtotal
Low-rise Residential
Talaga Bestari
Graha Famili
Graha Natura
Serenia Hills 1 & 2
Jajar Tunggal
Maja
Subtotal
Industrial Estate
Ngoro Industrial Park 2
Investment Properties
Intiland Tower Jakarta & Surabaya
Graha Pratama
WTC Surabaya
Wisma Darmo Grande
Spazio
Splash Sport Club
Golf Graha Family
Club House Serenia Hills
Graha Jasa Medika
Subtotal
Others
Total Appraisal Value by Colliers - Sept 2014
Add: Cash
Less: Interest bearing debt
Less: Advance
RNAV
RNAV per share
Land area
ha
Asset Value
Rp bn
4
10
3
393
0
1
20
431
1,554
3,459
2,116
2,733
232
443
1,381
11,918
55%
75%
100%
100%
100%
100%
40%
855
2,594
2,116
2,733
232
443
552
9,525
7
8
0
2
3
20
809
1,625
60
341
124
2,959
100%
50%
100%
100%
100%
809
813
60
341
124
2,146
91
2
64
9
5
1,083
1,254
657
315
1,700
655
134
769
4,230
100%
75%
100%
100%
100%
100%
657
236
1,700
655
134
769
4,150
44
268
100%
268
100%
30%
32%
100%
75%
100%
75%
100%
38%
177
1,098
262
296
42
215
81
158
54
711
2,917
3,871
1,098
79
95
42
161
81
118
54
267
1,994
1,065
Ownership
Effective Value
Rp bn
19,147
537
(2,295)
(1,497)
15,891
1,533
Source: Company
4
6 May 2015
Intiland Development
Exhibit 7. Income Statement (Rp bn)
2012
1,262
766
496
193
304
(27)
276
76
19
181
2013
1,510
804
706
306
400
3
404
74
6
324
2014
1,833
840
994
395
598
(70)
528
96
3
429
1Q15
603
367
236
82
154
3
157
32
4
121
Cash and equivalent
ST Investment
Account receivable
Other receivable
Inventories
Advances
Prepid taxes and expenses
Land for development
Due from related parties
Investment in associates
Fixed assets-net
Investment properties
Others
Total Assets
2012
222
28
184
44
1,654
408
23
2,836
4
218
278
174
20
6,092
2013
526
28
219
46
2,109
405
80
3,347
4
169
410
167
17
7,526
2014
550
37
204
44
3,123
501
113
3,202
4
196
257
761
12
9,005
1Q15
537
37
154
47
3,021
554
171
3,245
4
193
258
800
12
9,033
Notes payable
Trade payable
Other payable
Taxes payable
Accrued expenses
Due to related party
Unearned revenues
Sales advances
Bank loans
Bonds payable
Others
Total Liabilities
Minority interest
Shareholders equity
Total Liabilities & Equity
7
64
247
60
100
99
7
458
1,006
92
2,141
78
3,873
6,092
7
100
152
81
86
99
4
1,295
999
495
111
3,430
80
4,016
7,526
7
111
150
84
80
99
14
1,758
1,620
497
114
4,535
81
4,389
9,005
7
100
166
64
65
99
31
1,497
1,798
497
114
4,438
85
4,510
9,033
Revenues
Cost of goods sold
Gross profit
Operating expense
Operating profit
Other income (charges)
Profit before tax
Tax
Minority
Net profit
Source: Company
Exhibit 8. Balance Sheet (Rp bn)
Source: Company
5
6 May 2015
Intiland Development
Exhibit 9. Statement of Cash flow (Rp bn)
2012
1,567
2013
2,320
2014
2,314
1Q15
410
(1,194)
(121)
(76)
(1,889)
(71)
(114)
(2,774)
(169)
(108)
(517)
(54)
(34)
Net operating cash flow
177
246
(737)
(195)
Interest
Dividend received
Investments
Fixed assets
Net investment cash flow
4
31
2
(75)
(39)
12
4
(104)
(154)
(242)
12
5
(11)
(96)
(89)
3
(0)
(16)
(14)
Bank loan
Bonds
Equity
Dividend
Others
Net financing cash flow
(19)
(49)
44
(23)
(6)
495
(32)
(55)
(112)
290
722
(82)
210
849
177
16
193
Changes in cash and cash equivalent
Beginning balance
Forex
Ending balance
114
106
1
222
294
222
10
526
23
526
1
550
(16)
550
3
537
Cash receipts from customers
Cash paid to suppliers, employees,
others
Interest paid
Income tax paid
Source: Company
Exhibit 10. Ratios (%)
Gross margin
Operating margin
Pre-tax margin
Net margin
2012
39.3
24.1
21.9
14.4
2013
46.7
26.5
26.7
21.4
2014
54.2
32.6
28.8
23.4
1Q15
39.1
25.5
26.0
20.0
ROA
ROE
Net gearing
3.0
4.7
20.2
4.3
8.1
24.1
4.8
9.8
35.7
1.3
2.7
39.0
Source: Company
6
Equity Research
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
MARKET NEWS
Capex realization: Pharmaceutical Companies Not Yet Aggressive (BI)
Expansion activities on pharmaceutical companies during the first three months of this year have not been aggressive. This is
reflected through the low realization of capex. In the 1Q15, KAEF just absorbed Rp12 billion of the total capex this year of Rp590
billion. A total of Rp100 billion will be used for the construction of a factory in Banjaran while around Rp119 billion will be used
to add about 100 units each new clinics and pharmacies. While KLBF has spent Rp210 billion in 1Q15 of total capex budgeted
this year of Rp1.1 trillion.
Coal production: HRUM Cut Target to 5 Million Tons (BI)
Due to lack of improvement in coal prices, HRUM set a coal production target this year of 5 million tons, lower than the target
and actual production in 2014 that reach 7 million tons. The Company stated that such lower target is done to protect and
optimize the operating margin amid sluggish global coal market. In 2014, the company sold 8 million tons of coal to China, South
Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia.
Infrastructure Project: BRI Prepare Rp10 trillion (BI)
BBRI set aside at least Rp10 trillion to fund infrastructure projects that will be done by fellow SOEs. In funding these
infrastructure projects, BBRI will cooperate with a number of other banks with syndication scheme. In the first stage, BBRI
expects to allocate approximately Rp5 trillion for the PLN project while the rest will be channeled to Solo-Ngawi-Kertosono toll
road project.
KIJA to Issue US$70mn Global Bonds (ID)
Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA) is issuing senior global bonds worth of US$70mn (Rp910bn), which will mature in 2019. Part of
the proceed from the bonds issuance wlll be used to replay the outstanding bonds which will mature in 2017, with 11.75%
coupon.
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity
Valuation
Danareksa Universe
Auto
Astra International
Gajah Tunggal
Selamat Sempurna
Banks
BCA
BNI
BRI
Bank Tabungan Negara
Bank Mandiri
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan
Cement
Holcim
Indocement
Semen Indonesia
Construction
Jasa Marga
Wijaya Karya
Pembangunan Perumahan
Adhi Karya
Waskita Karya
Wika Beton
Consumer
Indofood CBP
Indofood
Unilever
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
Mandom
Heavy Equipment
Hexindo Adiperkasa
United Tractors
Healthcare
Kalbe Farma
Kimia Farma
Siloam Hospital
Mining
Adaro Energy
Timah
Vale Indonesia
Aneka Tambang
Bukit Asam
Indo Tambangraya Megah
Harum Energy
Plantation
Astra Agro Lestari
Sampoerna Agro
PP London Sumatra
Salim Ivomas Pratama
Property
Alam Sutera
Bumi Serpong Damai
Metropolitan Land
Surya Semesta Internusa
Lippo Karawaci
Telco & Infrastructure
XL Axiata
Indosat
Telkom
Sarana Menara Nusantara
Tower Bersama
MNC Sky Vision
Tranportation
Blue Bird
Utility
PGN
Retail
Mitra Adi Perkasa
Ramayana
Ace Hardware
Rating
Price (Rp)
Price
Mkt Cap
Target
Rp Bn
HOLD
BUY
BUY
7,275
1,055
4,650
8,300
1,500
5,300
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
13,850
6,500
11,700
1,105
11,225
4,000
14,050
7,450
13,800
1,400
13,600
5,450
HOLD
BUY
BUY
1,535
22,400
13,000
2,300
28,300
18,800
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
6,325
2,890
3,810
2,685
1,690
1,000
8,200
4,000
4,600
3,700
2,100
1,350
HOLD
BUY
SELL
HOLD
BUY
13,725
6,875
44,175
1,110
19,400
13,800
8,050
30,000
1,200
19,300
HOLD
HOLD
2,970
21,300
3,650
22,200
HOLD
BUY
BUY
1,825
1,235
14,950
1,900
1,500
15,750
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
870
770
2,760
775
9,400
13,450
1,200
1,150
1,400
4,200
1,100
13,500
18,500
1,750
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
20,400
1,805
1,405
630
27,100
2,600
2,090
850
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
650
1,935
396
1,140
1,315
700
2,100
620
1,040
1,200
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
4,200
3,895
2,750
3,965
8,775
1,600
5,500
3,820
3,050
4,525
9,625
1,410
BUY
8,200
12,200
BUY
3,915
6,650
BUY
BUY
BUY
5,375
775
665
6,250
910
920
Net profit, Rp bn
2015
2016
EPS (Rp)
2015
EPS Growth
2016
3,006,590
199,357
226,971
331.1
377.0
307,735
294,518
3,676
6,694
1,048,272
341,472
121,216
288,629
11,677
261,917
23,361
171,332
11,763
82,460
77,110
109,222
43,010
17,771
18,450
4,837
16,439
8,715
486,970
80,030
60,365
337,055
5,619
3,901
81,947
2,495
79,452
109,690
85,547
6,859
17,284
108,480
27,828
5,735
27,424
7,392
21,659
15,197
3,244
55,087
32,125
3,411
9,586
9,964
88,727
12,772
37,242
3,001
5,364
30,347
428,085
35,874
21,165
277,200
40,455
42,090
11,302
20,517
20,517
94,906
94,906
25,827
8,923
5,499
11,405
24,660
23,976
266
419
84,332
19,127
12,142
27,391
1,357
22,087
2,228
12,525
923
5,741
5,861
4,577
1,600
843
694
399
646
396
13,909
3,033
4,098
6,365
203
210
5,764
220
5,544
2,841
2,481
257
102
8,963
2,095
651
2,375
194
1,746
1,782
119
5,510
2,770
464
1,055
1,221
5,943
1,254
2,369
290
464
1,565
20,711
1,208
312
15,554
1,702
1,933
2
1,253
1,253
11,088
11,088
1,376
352
409
615
29,165
28,096
633
437
96,420
21,921
13,914
31,497
1,609
24,946
2,533
15,375
1,213
6,595
7,567
5,552
1,877
1,004
856
531
792
491
15,544
3,308
4,422
7,332
256
226
6,341
260
6,081
3,344
2,895
316
133
10,056
2,202
765
2,566
400
1,939
1,982
202
5,938
2,832
550
1,133
1,423
6,634
1,516
2,617
322
415
1,763
23,936
1,776
588
16,458
2,121
2,570
423
1,554
1,554
10,313
10,313
1,698
543
444
711
451.7
592
76
291
782.9
767
651
1,110
129
947
381
725
120
1,559
988
120
422
137
143
221
66
45
506
520
467
834
40
1,045
1,261
262
1,486
53
53
47
89
138
66
87
239
20
803
1,577
44
211
1,759
245
155
77
80
64
135
38
99
72
151
141
57
158
167
380
0
501
501
457
457
53
212
58
36
534.3
694
182
303
895.1
879
746
1,277
153
1,069
434
890
158
1,792
1,276
146
547
164
177
295
81
56
565
567
504
961
51
1,126
1,387
309
1,630
62
62
56
115
155
69
103
258
42
892
1,755
75
227
1,798
291
166
90
89
77
150
43
88
82
175
208
108
168
208
462
60
621
621
425
425
66
327
63
41
2015
PER (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
PBV (x)
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
2015
2016
12%
14%
15.1
13.2
13.1
11.9
2.7
2.4
15%
16%
-1%
14%
13%
15%
13%
13%
22%
11%
19%
7%
12%
8%
5%
24%
25%
37%
30%
23%
28%
32%
10%
16%
5%
11%
8%
8%
4%
13%
3%
18%
18%
12%
64%
5%
2%
40%
17%
-148%
-13%
-15%
-53%
11%
4%
18%
8%
33%
-25%
15%
-36%
14%
32%
-38%
33%
-236%
-152%
6%
35%
38%
-101%
62%
62%
3%
3%
28%
112%
9%
17%
18%
17%
139%
4%
14%
15%
15%
15%
19%
13%
14%
23%
31%
15%
29%
21%
30%
19%
23%
33%
23%
24%
12%
9%
8%
15%
28%
8%
10%
18%
10%
18%
17%
19%
30%
12%
5%
18%
8%
106%
11%
11%
69%
8%
2%
19%
7%
17%
12%
21%
10%
11%
-11%
13%
16%
47%
89%
6%
25%
22%
19638%
24%
24%
-7%
-7%
23%
54%
9%
14%
12.5
12.3
13.9
16.0
12.4
18.1
10.0
10.5
8.5
11.9
10.5
13.7
12.7
14.4
13.2
23.9
15.0
21.0
26.6
12.1
25.6
22.0
35.0
26.4
14.7
53.0
27.8
18.6
14.2
11.4
14.3
38.6
34.5
26.3
168.8
12.1
13.3
8.8
11.5
38.0
11.7
8.5
27.2
10.0
11.6
7.4
9.1
8.2
14.9
10.2
14.3
10.3
11.6
18.2
20.7
29.7
67.9
17.4
23.8
23.1
5,273.4
16.4
16.4
8.6
8.6
18.8
25.3
13.5
18.5
10.6
10.5
5.8
15.3
10.9
15.8
8.7
9.2
7.2
10.5
9.2
11.1
9.7
12.5
10.2
19.7
11.6
17.7
21.6
9.1
20.9
17.7
31.3
24.2
13.6
46.0
21.8
17.2
12.9
9.6
13.1
32.8
29.5
22.1
130.1
10.8
12.6
7.5
10.7
18.5
10.5
7.7
16.1
9.3
11.3
6.2
8.5
7.0
13.4
8.4
12.9
9.3
12.9
16.1
17.9
20.2
36.0
16.4
19.1
19.0
26.7
13.2
13.2
9.2
9.2
15.2
16.4
12.4
16.2
10.0
10.2
4.7
9.2
8.7
8.8
4.5
8.7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
8.3
6.8
8.5
8.5
11.6
14.6
8.7
10.4
6.3
13.0
11.6
20.9
18.3
7.1
37.0
13.6
10.0
6.2
5.4
6.2
23.9
23.6
17.6
29.5
5.5
4.6
4.4
5.3
14.2
8.5
3.9
2.3
5.5
6.9
4.8
4.5
4.3
11.1
9.4
12.5
7.1
5.3
13.6
6.2
5.7
3.7
5.6
11.9
14.9
10.5
9.2
9.2
5.8
5.8
9.4
8.3
6.7
13.1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
7.3
5.2
7.1
8.0
9.9
13.1
7.3
8.6
5.4
10.5
9.3
18.9
17.2
6.5
32.4
10.7
9.3
5.3
4.2
5.3
20.0
20.2
14.3
21.9
4.9
4.1
3.9
4.5
10.6
7.4
3.5
1.8
4.9
6.5
4.1
3.7
3.8
9.8
8.0
11.0
6.6
5.5
11.6
5.7
5.0
3.4
5.2
10.1
12.6
8.9
7.5
7.5
6.2
6.2
7.9
6.9
6.0
11.1
2.2
2.2
0.6
4.7
2.4
3.7
1.8
2.4
0.9
2.2
1.7
2.6
1.1
2.9
2.9
3.7
3.4
3.0
6.2
2.3
4.9
3.5
9.3
5.1
2.1
62.5
5.0
2.7
1.9
0.9
2.0
7.6
8.1
3.4
9.8
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.6
2.4
1.5
0.8
1.4
2.7
1.0
1.2
0.7
2.0
1.8
2.5
1.4
1.8
1.9
3.5
2.4
1.3
3.8
6.2
3.5
6.9
4.6
4.6
2.3
2.3
2.8
3.1
1.6
4.0
1.9
1.9
0.5
4.0
2.1
3.0
1.5
2.0
0.8
1.9
1.4
2.3
1.0
2.6
2.4
3.2
3.1
2.6
5.0
1.9
4.2
3.0
8.5
4.5
1.9
56.0
4.2
2.5
1.8
0.8
1.8
6.7
7.0
3.0
9.1
1.1
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.6
2.1
1.5
0.9
1.3
2.5
0.9
1.1
0.6
1.8
1.5
2.2
1.2
1.6
1.7
3.2
2.1
1.3
3.5
4.9
2.9
5.5
3.7
3.7
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.7
1.5
3.3
Net Gearing
ROE
2015
2015
19.1
33.5
80.8
net cash
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
30.0
net cash
12.3
116.4
8.9
18.0
66.5
39.2
net cash
net cash
18.1
net cash
71.7
2.6
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
64.2
33.0
10.2
2.6
62.8
net cash
net cash
net cash
net cash
31.8
net cash
37.6
75.3
net cash
27.7
net cash
29.1
114.2
132.4
net cash
107.9
120.9
150.1
47.8
net cash
84.7
net cash
net cash
18.6
19.1
4.4
32.3
21.4
22.4
19.1
25.2
10.6
19.8
17.2
20.0
9.1
21.2
23.2
16.7
13.4
15.4
25.8
20.8
20.9
17.1
28.2
20.3
15.1
129.7
19.5
15.3
14.1
8.0
14.5
21.1
25.1
13.4
6.0
9.4
6.2
12.4
11.0
1.6
19.7
18.0
3.1
14.9
24.5
14.5
13.9
8.2
14.4
18.9
16.6
14.2
16.9
10.1
18.1
8.3
2.0
22.1
29.8
23.9
0.1
32.3
32.3
28.7
28.7
15.7
13.0
11.8
23.8
Equity Research
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
COVERAGE PERFORMANCE
LEADERS
Price as on
Code
05-May-2015
04-May-2015
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
Rating
Tower Bersama
TBIG
8,775
8,400
4.5
0.6
(8.4)
(9.5)
HOLD
Indo Tambangraya Megah
ITMG
13,450
12,900
4.3
(2.0)
(20.3)
(12.5)
HOLD
Ace Hardware
ACES
665
640
3.9
0.8
(5.7)
(15.3)
BUY
Adaro Energy
ADRO
870
845
3.0
(5.4)
(11.2)
(16.3)
BUY
Unilever
UNVR
44,175
43,000
2.7
5.0
12.4
36.8
SELL
XL Axiata
EXCL
4,200
4,090
2.7
(1.2)
(3.1)
(13.7)
BUY
Ramayana
RALS
775
755
2.6
(1.9)
3.3
(1.9)
BUY
Wika Beton
WTON
1,000
975
2.6
(13.4)
(17.0)
(23.1)
HOLD
Astra International
ASII
7,275
7,100
2.5
(2.3)
(11.3)
(2.0)
HOLD
Waskita Karya
WSKT
1,690
1,650
2.4
(1.7)
0.9
15.0
BUY
Chg, %
w-w, %
m-m, %
YTD, %
(5.7)
(9.0)
(11.0)
BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
LAGGARDS
Code
Metropolitan Land
MTLA
Mandom
Wijaya Karya
Price as on
05-May-2015 04-May-2015
Rating
396
420
(5.7)
TCID
19,400
20,000
(3.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
10.7
BUY
WIKA
2,890
2,975
(2.9)
(14.2)
(12.7)
(21.5)
BUY
Indosat
ISAT
3,895
4,000
(2.6)
(2.6)
(5.3)
(3.8)
HOLD
Mitra Adi Perkasa
MAPI
5,375
5,500
(2.3)
(2.3)
(10.4)
5.9
BUY
Pembangunan Perumahan
PTPP
3,810
3,890
(2.1)
(0.1)
4.4
6.6
BUY
Bank Tabungan Negara
BBTN
1,105
1,125
(1.8)
1.8
(6.4)
(8.3)
BUY
Indocement
INTP
22,400
22,800
(1.8)
(1.3)
(0.9)
(10.4)
BUY
Salim Ivomas Pratama
SIMP
630
640
(1.6)
(2.3)
(8.0)
(10.6)
BUY
Kimia Farma
KAEF
1,235
1,250
(1.2)
12.3
(5.0)
(15.7)
BUY
Sources: Bloomberg
Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research
Equity Research
Wednesday, May 06, 2015
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Danareksa Sekuritas – Equity Research