1. business and industrial
2. business operations
3. management
4. project management

Horizon planning for resilience in
Ulaanbaatar and deployment of the UK
INUA ‘Radar Screening Methodology’
Author
Written and produced by Catherine Allinson,
Future Earth Ltd., Sandy McDowell and Liza
Charlton, INUA on behalf of The Ecological
Sequestration Trust.
Acknowledgment
This report has been produced with the
generous support of the Foreign and
Commonwealth Office, British Embassy
Mongolia with kind contribution by INUA © and
The Ecological Sequestration Trust 2015.
Cover photo © Catherine Allinson, 2015.
Visit us at: ecosequestrust.org
Follow us: @ecosequestrust
Contents
Executive Summary .............................................................................................................................. v Introduction to the need for improved scenario planning capacity in Mongolia ..................................... 1 1. 2.1 The City of Ulaanbaatar ......................................................................................................... 1 2.2 The South Gobi .................................................................................................................... 2 2. Project deliverables ....................................................................................................................... 2 3. Methodology for the INUA Radar Screening project .......................................................................... 4 3.1. Mapping Complexity™ - personal performance and mind set ..................................................... 5 3.2. Radar Screening™ - strategic performance and mind set .......................................................... 6 4. Fact finding mission - Outputs 1.1 and 2.4 ....................................................................................... 7 5. Academics round table (extra) ........................................................................................................ 8 6. Financing engagement (extra) ........................................................................................................ 9 7. Radar Screening Planning Forum - Outputs 1.2, 2 and 3 ................................................................... 9 7.1. Mapping Complexity™ personal profiling for individuals .......................................................... 11 7.2. Radar Screen™ - a methodology for strategy planning ........................................................... 13 7.3. 121 Radar Screening sessions – 6th February 2015 ................................................................ 14 8. Key learnings from the Radar Screening Planning Forum ................................................................ 15 9. Key learnings from in-depth cognitive modelling interviews .............................................................. 16 10. Conclusions and recommendations from the Horizon Planning project ......................................... 17 11. Next steps: progressing the recommendations ........................................................................... 18 11.1. Technical assistance programme in support of Smart City of Ulaanbaatar ................................. 18 11.2. Formation of a Collaboratory – a collective laboratory for building shared intelligence ................ 19 References ........................................................................................................................................ 21 Annexes ............................................................................................................................................ 22 Annex A Fact finding mission visit 121 interviews ........................................................................ 22 Annex B Interim visit 121 interviews and Academics Round Table ................................................. 24 Annex C Financing visit 121 meetings ........................................................................................ 25 Annex D In-depth cognitive modelling interviews .......................................................................... 26 Annex E Radar Screening visit 121 meetings .............................................................................. 27 Annex F Radar Screening Planning Forum ................................................................................. 28 Annex G Summaries of six project discussion groups and follow up sessions on 6th February .......... 30 iii List of figures
Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 Figure 11 Figure 12 Ideal stakeholder mix for improved decision making ................................................................. 3 Mapping Complexity™ - a personal profile of strengths and preferences. .................................... 5 Radar Screening™ - a strategic planning tool. .......................................................................... 6 Radar Screening Planning Forum cross sector attendees split by percentage ............................. 9 Achieved stakeholder participation ........................................................................................ 10 Mapping Complexity profile example ..................................................................................... 11 A balanced score – aggregated profiles of all participants in the Planning Forum ....................... 12 Aggregate profiles of the six different interest groups .............................................................. 13 The 5-Field Complexity framework for strategic planning ......................................................... 14 Timeline for decision making platform establishment .............................................................. 18 Proposed Collaboratory constellation .................................................................................... 19 A proposed mental infrastructure for the Collaboratory ............................................................ 20 iv
Executive Summary
This project builds on the findings of the FCO Supporting High Quality Resilient Growth in Mongolia project
conducted January to March 2014, in which a feasibility study1 carried out by The Ecological Sequestration
Trust2, suggested significant appetite for an integrated approach to tackling climatic, environmental and human
development challenges in Ulaanbaatar. However, the complexity challenges of managing Ulaanbaatar’s
development are significant, and institutional values, attitudes and competencies differ, resulting in fragmented
performance, diverging priorities and the lack of a cohesive forum in which to bring together all the sectors
required for Mongolia to deliver its sustainable development plans and policies; this against a backdrop of
unstable and changing governments, a worsening economy3, rising inflation (up to 12% in 2014) falling GDP, a
rapidly urbanizing population and increasing risks from climate and environmental change.
The primary goals of the project were to develop a methodology for:
1. setting a benchmark for performance and mind-set
2. raising Ulaanbaatar’s horizon planning capacity in order to:
i.
develop a mind-set of innovation
ii.
increase knowledge-sharing and collaboration
In order that Mongolian leaders are able to clarify priorities and plot timelines to deliver smart sustainable
objectives for Ulaanbaatar by developing:
1. a Collaboratory4 to progress the city’s sustainability objectives.
2. a performance framework - the tools to measure it and the processes to help Ulaanbaatar achieve it.
The project was delivered through a process of intense engagement - remotely and via i) face to face exploratory
dialogue, ii) in-depth investigative cognitive modelling interviews and iii) a collaborative facilitated Radar
Screening Planning Forum. Key stakeholders in Mongolia’s sustainable development arena were targeted,
alongside actors from the academic, third and private sectors. The INUA Horizon Planning methodology was
tailored to help these stakeholders explore large-scale complex challenges using a ‘5-field framework’ to enable
people to analyse complex development challenges, find areas for attention, and make the best use of resources
to deliver the most successful outcomes. The resulting Radar Screening methodology was applied in two ways,
i) through the examination of personal strengths and ii) by identifying preferences to raise Ulaanbaatar’s horizon
planning capacity.
The level of engagement throughout the project, aided by the extra investment made by The Ecological
Sequestration Trust to deliver interim in-country engagement resulted in not only the successful achievement of
all project capacity building goals which far exceeded expectation but also an overwhelming consensus of
opinion with regard to the concrete recommendations already taken up by the City of Ulaanbaatar and Ministry of
Environment, Green Development and Tourism, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, the Ministry of Construction
Pathway to a Resilient Future for Mongolia – resilience.io feasibility study.
The Ecological Sequestration Trust was established in 2011 to demonstrate at city-region scale how to create a step
change in improving energy, water and food security in the face of the combined challenges of changes of climate,
demography and increasing resource-scarcity through collaborative use of the resilience.io integrated systems model.
3 Capital and financial accounts surplus of US$ 813 million in 2014 a decrease of 43% or US$ 625.0 million from 2013,
caused a 74% reduction in foreign direct investment to Mongolia which equals to US$ 1,556.3 million (Bank of Mongolia,
2014)
4 TEST has coined the word “collaboratory”, a collaboration laboratory, to describe the convening and facilitation
space governing the TEST model.
1
2
v
and Urban Planning, the National University of Mongolia, and the Institute for Sustainable Development among
many others.
These are:
1.
The pressing need for open source data and an independent trusted systems model access point vital for
the successful adoption, implementation and tracking of the Sustainable Development Goals, Mongolia’s
own Green Development Goals and the Smart City and e-Government agenda.
2.
The formation of a Collaboratory (cross sector steering group) operating at two levels: i) a high-level
cross-sector team as identified during the Academic Round Table, and ii) a wider arena for community
collaboration.
3.
Technical capacity building at multiple levels to accelerate development in systemic thinking and better
planning. Capacity-building must be appropriate for the context of Mongolia, with measurable, practical
outcomes that enable independence in furthering the Country's economic and sustainable development
goals – data and modelling, formal education and community engagement.
Two action points have been progressed as a direct result of the project:
i) A 3-month scoping plan leading to an implementation plan for 2-3 years to establish the decision
making platform resilience.io and seed capital funds flowing into projects.
ii) The formation of a Collaboratory Hub led by the Institute for Sustainable Development to host and
manage the resilience.io platform for Ulaanbaatar but also other regions across Mongolia, with the
National University of Mongolia (NUM), the City of Ulaanbaatar, appropriate Ministries, the Mongolian
Bankers Association and other institutes and third sector organisations.
In parallel, financing models for both resilience.io and foreign direct investment have been progressed with the
City of Ulaanbaatar and selected development banks.
vi
1. Introduction to the need for improved scenario planning capacity in Mongolia
Since 2009, Mongolia has benefitted from rapid GDP growth, averaging 12%, based on its mineral wealth but the
recent global dip in commodity prices, coupled with structural and governance instabilities, a decline in foreign
direct investment and a recent history of aggressive government spending and credit growth, have left the new
government and associated administrative bodies with a challenge to keep Mongolia’s social and economic
development on track (Asia Foundation, 2014; ADB, 2014). However, domestic consumption is a key economic
driver, and Mongolia is making considerable efforts to diversify its economic base, address the financial and
governance issues.
Mongolia is natural asset rich with a vast 1.566 million square km of land which is 80% agricultural, 11% forested
with only 1% urban developed. Despite ample geothermal, solar and wind potential, the share of renewable
energy consumption is the lowest in Central and East Asia at 3.2%. Mongolia’s per capita CO2 emissions are
some of the highest in the world at 4.2t (World Bank, 2010), air pollution in Ulaanbaatar is ‘dangerous to health’
and Mongolia’s water resources are at critical levels with the Tuul, Orkhon and Boroo rivers all suffering from
over-exploitation, pollution, climate change or poor basin management (UN Aquastat Mongolia, 2011) and
desertification is widespread in some areas. Environmental damage has been estimated at 1.16 trillion MNT or
US$0.59 billion (Ministry of Environment and Green Development in Dagvadorj, 2012).
More positively, Mongolia has a strong bond to the land, its natural and social capital, and successive
administrations seem less keen to follow the path that other rapidly urbanizing middle income countries have
followed, and intend to leap frog the ills of unplanned industrial development. The Government has set green and
sustainable development goals alongside economic goals producing a National Appropriate Mitigation Action
Plan in 2010 and ratifying the Green Development Policy in 2014 along with integrated water resource
management (and other) plans. Strategic priority #1 of the Green Development Policy is to “promote a
sustainable consumption and production pattern with efficient use of natural resources, low greenhouse gas
emissions, and reduced waste generation” and is listed to be achieved by reducing greenhouse gas emissions in
the energy sector by 20% by 2030, increasing energy efficiency and increasing the share of renewable energy
used in total energy production to 20% by 2020, just 5 years hence (Green Development Policy, 2014). The
Ulaanbaatar Master City Development Plan to 2030 suggests its ambitions will be financed through state
governments funds recouped from the mining sector and private sector investment plus returns from an increase
in GDP (Ministry of Construction, Urban Development, 2013).
These goals are laudable but there is a wide gap between the ability to draft plans and the ability to implement
them in a complex country with conflicting needs, disparate responsible departments, and limited domestic
budget. The ability to make informed decisions on integrated projects, and to prioritize and raise the funding to
implement them at scale still presents a huge challenge, especially when Mongolia has only a small ‘window of
opportunity’ to put the economy back on track through e.g. trade negotiations with Japan5 (Bloomberg, 11.2.15),
despite considerable progress by the City of Ulaanbaatar and international funders such as JICA, GIZ, Asia
Foundation. Two brief examples of the pressing need for improved integrated scenario planning now follow.
2.1
The City of Ulaanbaatar
Ulaanbaatar ranks amid the most polluted cities worldwide (WHO, 2011) with an average at PM2.5 air pollution
of 64 ug/m3 caused mainly by coal fired heating and cooking stoves. Air pollution is responsible for 1/10 deaths,
birth defects at foetal stage and a 45% rise in the number of patients with respiratory illnesses between 2004 and
2008. The population has swelled to 1.31 million or 46% total population in the past decade and given rise to
The Economic Partnership Agreement “to help increase trade, investment, service flow and human collaboration between
Mongolia and Japan includes a loan of 36.8 billion yen ($308 million) for a new international airport at UB.
5
1 sprawling unplanned ‘ger districts’ on the fringes of the valley sides. Despite the establishment of Community
Development Councils for development under the MDG agenda and Community Action Plans, transportation,
solid waste management and a healthy source of heating are a severe challenge for the administration and still
lacking for a large percentage of the new urban population. The lack of reliable data and an integrated
systematic approach to energy, transportation and sanitation compounds the challenge of delivering city
services.
2.2
The South Gobi
Mongolia's government has indebted itself in recent years in order to finance infrastructure investments
associated with mining wealth in the South Gobi. The mines have generated wealth for the country but
inconsistent politics, lack of promised compensation, decreasing access to water, disruption and displacement to
herder livelihoods, rapid rise in the population of the nearby soms, community health, and challenges in access
to energy, have caused resentment among the local people whose lives have been affected by the huge scaling
of the abstractive industries in the area (Mine Watch 2014).
Exactly what cost to society and environment have been incurred is unclear, as is an integrated system to
assess the impact of, for example, water abstraction from aquifers or shallow wells to the mines versus decrease
in rainfall due to climate change; grazing rights and increasing livestock count and their effect on grassland
desertification versus death due to dzuds (winter extremes of cold and snow, preceded by summer drought); and
localized toxicity from chemicals associated with mining and its effect on the local population. These social,
environmental and economic debts will have to be repaid or refinanced and evidence based data and statistics
will be required to back robust business cases for Mongolia to attract investment into to the rapidly growing
South Gobi mining towns like Tsogt-Tsetsii (The Economist, 21.1.15).
Part of the suggested solution towards filling the integrated resource management gap is the collaborative
Sustainable Finance Initiative6 started in 2013, convened by the Mongolian Banking Association, coupled with
the necessary tools and training to i) to better utilize and interrogate data which is now available globally via
satellite, through government open source initiatives and in the variety of domestic research institutions and ii)
better understand risk and scenario test prior to investment.
2. Project deliverables
The deliverables for this horizon planning capacity building project included developing a methodology for:
1. setting a benchmark for performance and mind-set
2. raising Ulaanbaatar’s horizon planning capacity in order to:
i.
develop a mind-set of innovation
ii.
increase knowledge-sharing and collaboration
In order that Mongolian leaders are able to clarify priorities and plot timelines to deliver smart sustainable
objectives for Ulaanbaatar by developing:
1. a Collaboratory7 to progress the city’s sustainability objectives.
2. a Performance framework, the tools to measure it and the processes to help Ulaanbaatar achieve it.
95% investment funding in Mongolia comes from the banking sector and the Mongolian Sustainable Finance Principles and
Sector Guidelines will be implemented as of January 2015.
7 A Collaboratory is a collective laboratory for inclusive decision-making based on shared values.
6
2
The methodology prerequisites and two objectives are discussed below and were preceded by a stakeholder
mapping exercise to ensure good cross-sector coverage within the 121 engagement sessions and at the final
Radar Screening Planning Forum seen in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1 Ideal stakeholder mix for improved decision making
3
3. Methodology for the INUA Radar Screening project
This project set out to capacity build for sustainable economic development by bringing the INUA Radar
Screening methodology for improved horizon planning to 8-20 cross-sector leaders in Mongolia. Building on
previous work, project engagement was delivered by identifying and meeting key stakeholders via i) face to face
exploratory dialogue, ii) in-depth investigative cognitive modelling interviews and iii) a collaborative facilitated
Radar Screening Planning Forum.
Radar Screening methodology comes from INUA Business School, and was developed for large companies to
help them plan for the future. As part of INUA’s Horizon Planning, Radar Screening helps stakeholders explore
large-scale complex challenges. It offers a ‘5-field framework’ to enable people to analyse the complexity,
diagnose areas for attention, and make the best use of resources to deliver the most successful outcomes. It
also provides new ways of looking at the conflicts and dilemmas that get in the way of real success, and helps
resolve them.
The process in Ulaanbaatar began with a fact-finding exploratory mission plus in-depth interviews with invited
participants, chosen for their sector background, their perspective on the need for change, and their influence in
the change process. The objective of the interviews was to understand stakeholder perspectives, build
engagement, and identify some of the cultural and operating prerequisites for a successful sustainable
development collaboration strategy for Ulaanbaatar.
The final Planning Forum then brought together key stakeholders to identify the aspirations, challenges and
objectives of different interest groups. Radar Screening offered a framework for each interest group to develop a
robust strategy across a range of fields – the vision, operations, investment potential, collaboration and
education - to accelerate and add value to all initiatives. It is envisaged that this level of clarity will also enhance
Ulaanbaatar’s standing as an attractive investment proposition.
The methodology is such that it can be used beyond the Planning Forum. Participants can take the models and
apply them to change at every level; in this way capability is transferred to those charged with the future of the
City of Ulaanbaatar.
The Radar Screening methodology was developed and applied in two ways, i) profiling of personal strengths
and ii) personal preferences and strategic planning in order to raise Ulaanbaatar’s horizon planning capacity.
4
3.1. Mapping Complexity™ - personal performance and mind set
The Mapping Complexity in Figure 2 provided a methodology to engage individual stakeholders and raise levels
of awareness to apply their talents for the best possible performance outcomes. It also provided an introduction
to the 5 fields of the Radar Screening™ methodology.
Figure 2 Mapping Complexity™ - a personal profile of strengths and preferences.
Mapping Complexity™ raises capacity in 3 areas:
•
•
•
by benchmarking personal strengths in 5 fields of complex performance – innovation, achievement,
collaboration, implementation and personal learning.
by demonstrating the need for individual development towards a rounded ability to appreciate and
integrate the thinking of different mind sets.
The methodology demonstrates, for example, how innovation is required in all fields, including
innovation in process; how innovative thinking is valueless without competence and reliability in
delivery.
by identifying the value of a knowledge-sharing forum in future planning - a team collaboration where
the talents of all are required for a robust strategy.
From this emerges a common language, a knowledge-sharing methodology and a rounded thinking
model where all bases are covered. Participants begin to offer support to projects, not their own,
evidenced early on in the Planning Forum.
5
3.2. Radar Screening™ - strategic performance and mind set
Radar Screening™ in Figure 3 provided a methodology to enable stakeholders to simplify the complexity of their
multi-layered projects.
Figure 3 Radar Screening™ - a strategic planning tool.
It is a structured process that addressed each of the project deliverables for Ulaanbaatar’s Horizon Planning:
1. The Evidence field Radar Screening™ addresses performance measures: priorities, timescales,
structures, standards, governance. Its output is operating clarity and performance standards
understood and agreed by all.
2. Horizon planning is found in the Exploration field – what, how much, how far, how big can the city’s
thinking be? But it also addresses world and national events, dangers on the radar screen that need
to be taken into account. Its output is strategic clarity.
3. The mind set of innovation comes in the Execution field, whose output is change delivered. This is
the field where good ideas are implemented; people are held accountable by project-tracking
systems to deliver their commitments on time, on budget, and to the standard agreed.
4. Knowledge-sharing and collaboration are the focus of the Engagement field. Here the mental
infrastructure of the project is agreed, stakeholders are identified, influencing strategies developed.
This is the Collaboratory.
5. The fifth field – Enterprise – reviews the project as it progresses: the performance framework, the
tools to measure it and the processes to help achieve it. It can be a regular review meeting by the
teams, or an online process that integrates all the fields and provides real-time feedback on
progress.
6
Use of this methodology raises the capacity to deliver; it is a diagnostic process and iterative performance
framework helping planners to clarify objectives, reach committed agreement, plot timelines and access
resources. They learn how to apply it in all aspects of planning for the future – in structures, implementation,
financing, engagement, etc. and it offers a robust common framework to achieve high performance standards.
The methodology will raise Ulaanbaatar’s horizon planning capacity now, and prepare the city well for
implementation and application of the shared planning and investment tools required to improve decision making
with regard to sustainable economic development in the coming months.
4. Fact finding mission - Outputs 1.1 and 2.4
A fact finding mission to Ulaanbaatar was conducted by The Ecological Sequestration Trust and INUA after
remote engagement by Future Earth and supported by the FCO British Embassy Mongolia staff, from Oct 20th to
24th 2014. The mission resulted in over 30 face to face interviews by Peter Head, The Ecological Sequestration
Trust and Sandy McDowell and Liza Charlton, INUA (see Annex A for list of meetings held).
The aim was to assess how to build capacity and tailor the Radar Screening methodology in order to action the
evidence found during the first FCO funded project entitled “Supporting High Quality Resilient Growth in
Mongolia” which suggested that The Ecological Sequestration Trust’s resilience.io investment and planning
decision-making platform would be a feasible solution to improve transparency, and increase the evidence base
for, resilient and sustainable development planning and investment decision-making in Mongolia. Questions
asked during the capacity building exercise would indicate the level of support nine months later, answer whether
there was sufficient technical and managerial expertise to develop an in-country multi-sector governance
structure for model implementation, and uncover local financing solutions for its establishment.
There was a clear desire for a broader multi-sector stakeholder network to support the core work of The
Ecological Sequestration Trust’s resilience.io platform in Mongolia, as evidenced by the willingness of
interviewees from all sectors to connect the team with other potential influencers. Capacity to support the work
was highlighted as an urgent issue, particularly the need for education at higher research levels. Education was
also seen as a way to socialise and engage a wider population in the work, targeting rural and disadvantaged
communities.
High-level government engagement was continued with Mayor Bat-Uul, Minister Oyun8 (Ministry of Environment
and Green Development) and Vice Minister Tsogtgerel (Ministry of Agriculture and Industry) plus State Secretary
Otgonjargal (Ministry Population Development and Social Protection), in addition to private and third sector
actors, forming the preparatory work for cognitive mapping exercise and horizon planning for development
projects, which were carried out in the next phase of the project.
It was suggested that the newly formed Institute of Sustainable Development (ISD) at the National University of
Mongolia, with strong links to the Ministry of Environment and Green Development, might be a suitable host
organization for the resilience.io platform (with associated benefits for research teams at the university), acting as
a hub for all relevant existing specialist research organisations. The Institute for Sustainable Development has
appropriate political links through Dr Chuluun Togtokh, former advisor to the Minister, initiatory co-author of the
Green Development Policy ratified in 2014.
8
These are the correct titles for individuals as of October 2014 prior to the change in Government in November 2014.
7
5. Academics round table (extra)
Due to political upheavals in November 2014 resulting in a change of Government and the formation of a new
cabinet in December, it was agreed with the British Embassy Mongolia to postpone the final Radar Screening
Planning Forum until January/February 2015. To mitigate the potential loss of direction and momentum for the
project, The Ecological Sequestration Trust made a decision to make a significant contribution to and investment
in this project by returning to Mongolia from December 14th to 18th December to host a Technical Academics
Round Table event at the British Embassy, for a sector which is less affected by political change, yet vital for
driving and evidencing the sustainable economic development of the country. Project Manager Future Earth
engaged with academics across four institutions and 14 attended the Round Table on the 17th December (see for
attendee list).
Round table leadership was shown by the Institute for Sustainability Director Dr Chuluun Togtokh with support
from National University of Mongolia colleagues Lodoiravsal Choimaa and Amarsanaa Ganbold, and other
research organisations Lakshmi, Director General of Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Centre
and Tuvshintugs, Director, Economic Research Institute. Discourse suggested that the resilience.io planning
model:
•
•
•
•
Strongly supports the Smart Ulaanbaatar City and e-Government agendas through the development of
open data - collation, licencing, cataloguing and sharing, improve the use of statistics; policy and
standards9; and increase modelling capacity.
Helps stakeholders to decide which projects to implement with international funders and as public
private partnerships.
Helps to reduce risk of economic loss in the countryside with migration forced by climate change,
changes in grazing practices and the need to sequester carbon, improves seasonal forecasting and
reduces the loss of ecosystems for social- economic benefit.
Builds on and links to the UNEP PAGE T21 project and permits economic analysis and visualisation of
clustering around 3 regions in Mongolia which are closely linked to city marketing.
The group agreed to present at the Radar Screening Planning Forum with their vision for integrated resource
management, the technical capacities required to achieve this in Mongolia and ways to build on existing
initiatives. Secondly, the Academics Round Table secured considerable support from NUM such that an
exchange programme for building modelling capacity may be established between NUM and Imperial College
London.
Transparency Act, Freedom of Information and e-Signature Act are all in progress or in place; Data Protection, Open Data,
Information Technology and e-Government and Security of Information Acts are all required.
9
8
6. Financing engagement (extra)
The Ecological Sequestration Trust invested further by sending its Programme Finance Director, Christoph von
Waldersee to Ulaanbaatar in January to help progress platform financing discussions with the City of
Ulaanbaatar, banks and international finance institutions (see Annex C). Though not strictly part of the FCO
supported Horizon Planning project, these discussions helped to build on the considerable momentum gained at
the interim Academics Round Table and resulted in:
i)
ii)
A verbal commitment by the Mayor to financially support the implementation of the scenario planning
platform resilience.io for the City of Ulaanbaatar.
A willingness by Trade and Development Bank, Xac Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation to
fund portfolio appropriate projects set up using the resilience.io model.
It was agreed to pursue financing options via Cities Development Initiative for Asia and Green Climate Funds in
support of the e-Government and Smart City agendas.
7. Radar Screening Planning Forum - Outputs 1.2, 2 and 3
The final deliverable in the horizon planning project was a collaborative INUA facilitated Radar Screening
Planning Forum in February 2015. Bi-lingual English/Mongolian communications materials were created
including: Radar Screening explained; resilience.io model explained; cognitive modelling invitation; Powerpoint
presentations on the aims and outcomes potential of the Radar Screening workshop; the Planning Forum
agenda and invitation (see attached zip Communications Folder).
The Radar Screening Planning Forum held at the Chinggis Khan Hotel was generously supported by the City of
Ulaanbaatar. At project inception, 20 participants at the Planning Forum were decided upon as the measure of
success and following the concerted efforts made to engage remotely and two extra interim visits conducted by
The Ecological Sequestration Trust, of the 52 cross sector individuals who registered and attended the event, a
total of 35 stayed the full day and benefitted from the complete INUA Radar Screening capacity building. Figure 4
shows the sector split.
35
52
30
25
%
20
15
10
5
0
Government
Private sector
Third sector
Academic sector
Figure 4 Radar Screening Planning Forum cross sector attendees split by percentage
9
Of note is the considerable ‘buy-in’ to this project by both the former Government regime and the incumbent
regime. Particular care was taken by The Ecological Sequestration Trust to meet and re-engage with the City of
Ulaanbaatar and the new cabinet ministers during the additional in-country visits:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
City of Ulaanbaatar (3 departments)
Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism
Ministry of Energy
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Ministry of Construction and Urban Development
Ministry of Population Development and Social Welfare
Ministry of Education, Culture and Science
Overall, seventy two (72) meetings were held between October 2014 and February 2015. The following Figure 5
shows a selection of the key stakeholders engaged during the project as developed from the initial stakeholder
engagement profile at the project’s outset. Annexes A to F list all stakeholders.
Figure 5 Achieved stakeholder participation
More focus was given to the engagement of the government, academic and banking sectors, as it was felt that
the third sector would likely be readily engaged at a later stage. None-the-less contact was maintained with this
sector throughout and the final groupings at the Radar Screening forum reflect this.
10
7.1. Mapping Complexity™ personal profiling for individuals
To ensure that all views were represented in breadth and depth, INUA Business School provided an independent
platform for people to explore their priorities. Mapping Complexity™ is a profiling tool to enable like-minded
people, regardless of discipline, to group together for their initial discussions. It is then used to ensure all fields
are addressed to develop a robust strategy.
Mapping Complexity™ represents 5 fields of complexity:
I.
Managing Organisation - a focus on data and evidence
II.
Managing Relationships - engaging stakeholders
III.
Managing Self - issues of personal purpose, leadership and learning
IV.
Managing Context - the big picture, the strategic approach
V.
Implementing Change - attention to detail, and reliability and security of process
Participants completed a short questionnaire that resulted in a personal profile for each individual (see Figure 2
in the Methodology section above). Based on 5 fields of complexity, Mapping Complexity™ shows an
individual’s current focus of thinking (Figure 6) – the mind sets they are likely to bring to a particular project. It
shows what aspects of a project they will be attracted to, and the aspects they may neglect.
Figure 6 Mapping Complexity profile example
The resulting profile has important implications for complex projects and for the composition of teams. Significant
areas may not be adequately addressed, and teams who think in similar ways may overlook completely parts of
a process that are essential for successful implementation.
11
By grouping participants according to their Mapping Complexity™ profile, it was apparent that, unusually, when
every participant in the Planning Forum was included, there was a balanced spread of mind-sets across the
fields (Figure 7). This is significant. It validates the preparatory engagement work to ensure the inclusion of all
four sectors – political, private, academic and third sectors – as well as The Ecological Sequestration Trust’s
broader emphasis on economic and social factors in addressing environmental issues.
Figure 7 A balanced score – aggregated profiles of all participants in the Planning Forum
However, when stakeholders grouped around particular topics, the spread of thinking became more focused on
one or two fields, determined by personal mind set preference as can be seen in Figure 8 below where the
aggregate profiles of each of these groups are illustrated.
12
Figure 8 Aggregate profiles of the six different interest groups
Each of the 6 interest groups has strengths, and some areas that need conscious focus. The Radar Screen
methodology subsequently ensured that all fields were addressed in the development of a strategy and
implementation plan.
The stakeholder groups then applied Radar Screen methodology to 6 self-selected topics for sustainable
development:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Geothermal energy and its applications
Improve quality of soil for wheat growing
‘Greenhouse’ capability for ger dwellers to grow vegetables and berries
Mobile phone app to engage children & fund green initiatives
Integration and behavioural change for incoming youngsters to the City
Establishment of further free trade zones at the borders
7.2. Radar Screen™ - a methodology for strategy planning
Radar Screening allowed stakeholder groups to apply a methodology for robust strategy development across a
range of fields – the vision for the project, operating principles, investment potential, collaboration and education
- to accelerate and add value to all initiatives. Each group worked through the ‘5-field framework’ to analyse the
complexity of their chosen project, uncover areas for attention, discuss where and how to make the best use of
resources. The findings were fed back to the wider group.
13
Figure 9 The 5-Field Complexity framework for strategic planning
As a starting point it provided
•
•
•
•
a framework for thinking and discussion
a methodology for people from different sectors to share ideas
a forum to identify common goals
a planning process to begin implementation
The methodology is such that it can be used beyond the Planning Forum. Participants can take the models and
apply them to change at every level and in this way, capability is transferred to those charged with the future of
city of Ulaanbaatar. Attendees were offered the benefit of continuing the training during 121 sessions the
following day on a first come first served basis. The list was oversubscribed.
7.3. 121 Radar Screening sessions – 6th February 2015
During the 121 sessions hosted by HMA at the Embassy on the 6th February, several of the previous day’s
discussion topics were continued in groups representing The Society of Vegetables, UNEP Tunza IFF, NUM,
Nature Conservancy Council and Green Rewards.
Projects pursued in more depth included:
1. ‘Greenhouse’ capability for ger dwellers to grow vegetables and berries
2. Mobile phone applications to engage children & fund green initiatives
3. Integration and behavioural education for incoming youngsters to the City
4. Publication of an environmental magazine to engage school-age children
14
Further in-depth work enabled advocates of each proposition to identify:
• clarity of objectives
• the value proposition that would enable creative ways to engage the community; develop prototypes at
no cost; attract investment funding and/or commitment from commercial enterprise
• desirable sponsors and ways to engage them
• synergies and the value of collaboration with other proposals
• next steps for the project
Additional value in the workshop came from the socialisation of innovative ideas in a wider forum, and support for
the new projects by influencers with no prior knowledge of the proposals.
Output 4.4 was set to identify the priority “cockpit” sectors needed to support Mongolia’s sustainability objectives.
Early indications can be made based on the priorities set out in the Ulaanbaatar City Master Plan (Ministry of
Construction, Urban Development, 2013) in which the top priority is that the “Capital Ulaanbaatar city is to be
safe and healthy green city, capable of overcoming and adapting the disasters to come in the future due to
weather change”; a resilient city, in which the priority goals of waste management, water resources, air quality
and renewable energy are managed and met specifically targeting:
•
•
•
•
land-use zoning, green belt and green spaces
road and public transport network.
socio-economic infrastructure and housing
utilities and telecommunications
Drawing on information conveyed during the 121 interviews, the conclusion of this report is that the most
pressing need in the City of Ulaanbaatar is for the development of an energy cockpit with the objective of security
of supply of heat and electricity to everyone while cleaning the air quickly.
8. Key learnings from the Radar Screening Planning Forum
1. Exploration
We found a wide range of ideas for sustainable solutions for the challenges of Ulaanbaatar City with innovative
thinking to address both immediate and long-term challenges and that the long-term impact of small changes is
well thought-through. Achievement would be accelerated with strength in systemic thinking – synergies with
other sectors, or people with different strengths.
2. Execution
We identified a need for more innovative thinking in the implementation phase, greater proactivity in problemsolving, a stronger accountability and responsibility for execution and the need for building competence in largescale projects.
3. Engagement
We recognise much untapped resource – accessible by engaging the wider community in contributing talent and
resources, socialising ideas to generate interest and commitment and establishing new networks and
relationships around specific development goals.
15
4. Evidence
We found that on a global scale there is abundant data to support large-scale sustainable development goals
from international research groups, public and private sector missions and so on. There is however, a need for
specific, practical application of the data to value-adding projects for the city of Ulaanbaatar and Mongolia.
Domestically, in evidence-based decision-making there are wide differences between stakeholder groups in how
well the evidence is presented to support their endeavours. Development goals that have strongly articulated
economic value attract investment but goals that focus on social or environmental benefits struggle to find
funding. There is a need for more rounded talents across teams/adviser groups and shared knowledge and
experience.
9. Key learnings from in-depth cognitive modelling interviews
During the fact finding mission, via telephone/Skype and during the Radar Screening mission, in-depth cognitive
modelling interviews of 1.5 hours each were carried out by INUA with key stakeholders (see Annex D for full list).
Based on these professionally led interviews, the following were identified as essential cultural and operating
prerequisites for Mongolia to deliver successfully on its sustainable development goals:
i)
ii)
iii)
iv)
v)
vi)
Vision & Purpose - Clear agreed priorities across the Sustainable Development Goals
A storyline and value-proposition to engage all stakeholders: global investors, international, national and
regional interest groups; urban and rural communities.
Identity
In the face of substantial external funding by diverse and sometimes self-interested and conflicting
interest groups, it is important to maintain the independent spirit of Mongolia and the strength of the
Mongolian identity.
Values – transparency, accountability, collaboration, courage, achievement
These were emphasised as essential values to drive the future of the country as a leading and
respected player on the world stage.
Skills & Capabilities
A consistent theme was the need to build domestic capacity in all key areas for economic development,
and the need for education at all levels to develop a pipeline of talent for the future. The ability for
Mongolia to leapfrog carbon intensive development by harnessing new technology will accelerate
capacity. At higher levels, investment in the academic sector’s R&D capability was seen as essential to
developing domestic capacity; data modelling, economic modelling and systemic and strategic thinking
were identified as important factors for the implementation of the resilience.io platform. These exist in
the country, but not in the quantities required for the future economic, social and environmental
development that will result from the platform.
Behaviours - Planning and Implementation
Inclusion of civil society pressure groups as an independent force for good; constant socialisation and
engagement at all levels of society.
Environment
An operating environment that is transparent, where open data is pursued; where achievement is
valued; an environment of collaboration, respect and appreciation of diverse skills and views.
Funding for sustainable development was not seen as an issue in itself; it was generally believed that investor
confidence was the most important factor in funding. This confidence would come from Mongolia demonstrating
competence and commitment to deliver, and building capacity for the future.
16
10. Conclusions and recommendations from the Horizon Planning project
The learnings from the remote and in-country engagement, plus the Radar Screening and in-depth cognitive
modelling interviews carried out throughout this project emphasise the value in addressing the following:
4.
The pressing need for open source data and an independent trusted systems model access point
The ability to access and analyse open source data for projects at scale is vital for the successful adoption,
implementation and tracking of the Sustainable Development Goals, Mongolia’s own Green Development Goals
and the Smart City and e-Government agenda.
• Single data systems model for analysis and scenario planning in accessible and relevant forms to
connect economic, social and environmental priorities for effective decision-making for energy,
transport, housing, land use and associated M&E and academic research projects.
• Robust data and analysis for different stakeholder groups to present convincing business cases for
development projects to attract inward foreign direct investment.
• Practical application of the data to projects for the city of Ulaanbaatar and Mongolia - projects have
already been identified which can be used as case studies to support the Government and City
agendas.
5.
The formation of a Collaboratory operating at two levels:
i) A high-level cross-sector team as identified during the Academic Round Table to operate within the Institute
for Sustainable Development at NUM. This group will:
•
•
•
•
•
offer continuity in the face of political change with clear and agreed priorities
provide a trusted neutral space for cross-sector discourse and leadership both within and beyond
Mongolia
provide a voice for pressure groups outside the interests of political or private sector groupings
provide independence and transparency with a strong narrative and value proposition to attract
investment
accelerate economic, societal and environmental change through cross-sector collaboration
ii) A wider arena for community collaboration
•
•
•
•
an inclusive model for individuals, groups & communities pursuing sustainable solutions
assistance with advice, consultancy, resources
seed funding for case studies and proof of concept
education to build independent capacity in the country for driving change
The project has uncovered much untapped resource which could be accessed by engaging the wider community
in contributing talent and resources, socialising ideas and harnessing commitment around specific development
goals. Deeper engagement across Ulaanbaatar ger districts and in the South Gobi will be vital to their
successful redevelopment.
6.
Technical capacity building at multiple levels
In order to accelerate development in systemic thinking and better planning, capacity building must be
appropriate for the context of Mongolia, with measurable, practical outcomes that enable independence in
furthering the country's economic and sustainable development goals.
17
•
•
•
High level content: data, economic and social modelling; critical and systemic thinking, analytical
research methods. Professional development methodology at this level strengthens collaboration,
practical application and economic value. Exchange programmes with UK universities.
Formal education: implemented on tablets and smart phones, for rural communities: technical skills,
English for special purposes, internationally accredited programs.
Engagement of the Community: Support for social and commercial enterprise and business
education skills development.
This was particularly noted in the implementation phase of the Radar Screening exercise, where a need for
innovative thinking, greater proactivity in problem-solving, a stronger accountability and responsibility for
execution and the need for building competence in large-scale projects was found; in short, technical assistance
for innovative integrated resource management.
11. Next steps: progressing the recommendations
The following concrete actions have already been agreed and progressed with the City of Ulaanbaatar and key
stakeholders as a direct result of the Academics Round Table, interim finance and final Radar Screening
Planning Forum carried out in this project
1.1. Technical assistance programme in support of Smart City of Ulaanbaatar
At the Radar Screening Planning Forum, Mayor Bat-Uul’s key note speech expounded that city services must be
provided with economic security for the city and the country; that the ITC sector should be expanded, capacity
improved and new technologies introduced in partnership with business. Further, that the City of Ulaanbaatar
needs evidence for ‘real’ decision making in order to identify the positive and negative effects of decisions before
they are made/implemented and that this can be improved by the better use of data. He explicitly mentioned that
the City of Ulaanbaatar needed a ‘decision making platform’ to permit decision makers to look at the impact of
decisions on society and on the different areas of the city. It is also of consequence that business and ordinary
citizens are able to see transparency in decision making which is a good element for sustainable development.
It is also clear that in order to attract sufficient inward investment to back the numerous projects required for
Mongolia to develop sustainably, a mechanism which transcends regime change and includes all sectors and
offers a trusted evidence base is required. Based on the findings of this project a clear way forward has been
discussed with the City of Ulaanbaatar leading to an implementation plan for 2-3 years to establish the decision
making platform “resilience.io” and seed capital funds flowing into projects.
Figure 10
Timeline for decision making platform establishment
18
The scoping plan would be supported by The Ecological Sequestration Trust and Future Earth to provide:
1. Technical assistance on integrated resource management – examine the identified issues of open
source data, acquisition and its applied use in 2 pre-selected project scenarios through in-country work
with key stakeholders and remote webinars with UK-based experts.
2. Capacity building in data modelling and application – route to successful data acquisition, integration
and application with key City of Ulaanbaatar stakeholders including Mongolian organisations Smart City
Team (Bat-Ulzii), National Statistics Office, University of Science and Technology, NUM and
internationally Cisco, Asia Foundation, Geodan, Google StreetMap, ESRI and/or SuperMap
3. Scenario planning and investment model implementation – financial and technical implementation
requirements, timeframes and priority projects for Ulaanbaatar and Mongolia.
There are two identified non-domestic funding opportunities that could be targeted for sustainable development,
the $400m Global Climate Fund (GCF) and the $600m Millennium Challenge Compact II (MCC). It was deemed
possible that the first funds could flow mid-2016 using resilience.io from late 2017 as illustrated in Figure 10.
Domestic funding would be sourced from the research and development budget of the City of Ulaanbaatar and
private sector with possible match from national Government. Funded projects would be implemented in both the
Ulaanbaatar City and South Gobi regions. 1.2. Formation of a Collaboratory – a collective laboratory for building shared intelligence
Through the process of intense engagement and the results of the Radar Screening, a cross-sector
Collaboratory group was suggested to progress the need for open data investigation and interrogation to support
scenario planning and decision making. This approach is supported by the Ministry of the Environment, Green
Development and Tourism, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food, NUM, the Bankers Association of Mongolia and
the City of Ulaanbaatar and could be formed around the Institute for Sustainability at NUM and supported by the
Research Institutes as illustrated below.
City of Ulaanbaatar -­‐ integrated projects Appropriate Government Ministries and Offices Ins=tute for Sustainability host for resilience.io plaEorm Shared vision and SDG goals Third sector community groups Figure 11
NUM academic and applied research Associated insi=utes Mongolian Bankers Associa=on and CEO Club Proposed Collaboratory constellation
19
The model here is one possible framework which could work using the ‘mental infrastructure’ picture developed
during the project. This is the equivalent of a physical or organisational infrastructure. It provides a culture
template of operating principles that clarify expectations and enable effective teamwork. It reflects the different
levels at which we operate as human beings. For a team, when everything the members do is aligned – their
actions, values, and sense of purpose – they can get powerful results. Others see them as authentic and
credible, and respect their leadership. It also provides a diagnostic model to check whether a project is likely to
be a success or a setback.
A draft ‘mental infrastructure’ for Ulaanbaatar’s Collaboratory is summarised here. It is based on interviews with
key stakeholders, and on work done in the Planning Forum. It should be reviewed and refined by the core
members of the Collaboratory when this is formally convened.
INUA Mental Infrastructure - a template for the Collaboratory - DRAFT
Vision
Mongolia – a world-leader in smart, sustainable development
Purpose
To bring practical, realistic achievements
Identity
A trusted, independent team, united by a common vision
Values
Transparency
Collaboration
Skills &
Capabilities
Trustworthiness
Courage
All levels to be
developed and
agreed by the
Collaboratory
members
Profound
team
motivators
Accountabiliy
data modelling, economic modelling
systemic thinking, strategic thinking
influencing & engagement skills
‘leapfrog thinking’; innovation in applications of the platform
teaching & learning skills
problem-solving
Behaviors
planning, project management, implementation
analysis and synthesis of data
engagement of all sectors
Environment
open data, open conversations, collaboration, respect
Shared
perspectives
underlying
effective
action
External,
visible
factors that
others see
and evaluate
These are the different levels at which we operate as human beings.
For a team, a template provides agreed operating principles; these clarify expectations and enable effective teamwork.
When everything the group does is aligned – people’s actions, values, and sense of purpose – they generate powerful
results. Others see them as authentic and credible, and respect their leadership.
It is also a good diagnostic model to assess progress and identify areas for attention.
Figure 12
A proposed mental infrastructure for the Collaboratory
The Collaboratory would support the City of Ulaanbaatar and the Smart City programme. The Collaboratory
would also support the South Gobi region for improved natural resource management for water, agriculture,
ecology and cultural practices including and new urban settlement development. Both regional support models
would be developed together, enabling funding from them both to be combined and for more efficient outcomes.
Other regions could then follow.
20
References
Allinson, C.A., 2014. Supporting resilient high quality growth in Mongolia. Feasibility Study January – March 2014. The
Ecological Sequestration Trust.
Asia Foundation, 2014. Summary of the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats Report for the Ulaanbaatar
City Economy.
Asian Development Bank, 2014. Asian development outlook 2014. Fiscal policy for inclusive growth.
Bloomberg 11.2.15 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-11/mongolia-may-consider-imf-standby-programsaikhanbileg-says
Dagvadorj, D., 2012. Mongolia’s Perspective on Green Development – Green Growth Development Paths for a Better
Future. Ministry of Environment and Green Development.
Mine Watch NGO 2014 http://en.minewatch.mn/tag/oyu-tolgoi/
Ministry of Construction, Urban Development, City Governor’s Administrative Office, 2013. Adjunct to the Master Plan to
Develop Ulaanbaatar City till 2020, Development Trend Till 2030 /Ulaanbaatar City Development Master Plan 2030/
Summary Report Volume IV
The Economist 21.1.15 http://country.eiu.com/article.aspx?articleid=1012686685&Country=Mongolia&topic=Economy
Ulaanbaatar Statistics Office http://ubstat.mn/StatTable=11
UN Aquastat Mongolia, 2011.
http://www.unwater.org/fileadmin/user_upload/unwater_new/docs/Publications/MNG_pagebypage.pdf
World Bank, 2015. http://data.worldbank.org/country/mongolia
World Health Organisation, 2011. Outdoor air pollution in world cities. Geneva, Switzerland
http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/cities/en/
21
Annexes
Annex A
Fact finding mission visit 121 interviews
Peter Head, Sandy McDowell and Liza Charlton (INUA), 20th -24th October 2014.
NOTE: Titles correct as of October 2014 prior to Government change.
October 20th
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Randolf Koppa, CEO, Trade and Development Bank
Vice Mininster Tsogtgerel, Ministry of Agriculture and Industry
Bayanjargal BYAMBASAIKHAN, Business Council of Mongolia
Baljinnyam AMARSANAA, Director Energy Economics Institute
Enkhbold, Director, World Bank Clean Air Project
October 21st
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Chuluun Togtokh, Director, Institute for Sustainability
Augustine Hosch, Xac Bank Ecobanking dept.
Luigi Cipolie, Urban Planning Manager Archetype MongoliaLLC
Minister Oyun, Ministry of Environment and Green Development
Tumensogt, President CEO Club
October 22nd
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
Bat-Uul Erdene, Governor and Mayor of the Capital City of Ulaanbaatar
Lakshmi Boojoo, Director General of Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Centre.
Ganbold Davaadorj Mongolia Oil Shale Association and director of OT.
Tuvshintugs, Director, Economic Research Institute
Graeme Hancock, AngloAmerican Bank
Erdenebat, National University of Mongolia
October 23rd
17.
18.
19.
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
Stefan Weyler and Batbold Otgonbayar GIZ
Atsumu and Wakisaka Yutaka, JICA
Tuyen Nguyen, IFC
Purevsuren, Advisor to President
Lodoiravsal Ch, National University of Mongolia
Otgonjargal, Ministry of Population Development and Social Protection
Dinner for x20 at HMA residence
Indra Tumurbataar, Environmental Mongolian Mining Corporation
October 24th
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
Robert Schoellhammer, ADB
Urantsooj Gombosuren, Centre Human Rights and Development
Batkuyag Choijiljav UNEP
Oyun second meeting, Ministry of Environment and Green Development
Narantuya Tuya, Director Internat. Cooperation Department Mining Education
Dashzeveg Zorigt, Member of State Great Khural
22
INUA 121 meetings with:
1. Tumensogt, President of the CEO Club, who repeated his support and interest in the workshop in
December. He offered to liaise on the agenda for the workshop. He suggested we should meet
Adyasuuren – former Minister of Environment, who has his own private University focusing on
ecological issues.
2. Erdenebat at NUM. He noted a lack of human capacity to follow through on things like The Ecological
Sequestration Trust’s proposal, and would like to see investment in home-grown education. He
suggested we meet Tirlza – President of Asia Foundation, and Batkhuu – VP of NUM, and responsible
for Research & Innovation.
3. State Secretary Otgonjargal, Ministry of Population Development and Social protection and her
assistant Tsoodol Bolormaa Director of International Cooperation division. Otgonjargal expressed great
interest in education, particularly for the disabled and unemployed, and sees resilience.io and INUA as
potentially very influential in this arena.
4. Tsedevdamba Oyungerel, Minister for Culture, Sport and Tourism. She was very interested in the
cultural history idea for Ulaanbaatar and the HIST human and natural culture for the whole country
discussed with Ish. She wanted to follow this up, and also suggested the Lakes as a very important
demonstration area, because of its environmental and economic significance.
5. Urantsooj Gombosuren, Chair and Head of Centre for Human Rights and Development. She attended
the first The Ecological Sequestration Trust’s workshop in 2014 and was pleased to hear about
progress. She sees resilience.io as a means for social change and human well-being. She was
particularly keen to engage communities ahead of the platform launch by offering online education and
accessible information about topics such as the principles of democracy, the responsibilities of
Government, gender equality and environmental sustainability. She welcomed ideas for income
generation and support for enterprise, English language courses to provide access to global education,
and (added by subsequent email) a platform for communities to share knowledge and experiences on
implementing effective solutions.
6. Minister Oyun. This was an in-depth interview on the cultural and mind set requirements for successful
collaboration to deliver Mongolia’s sustainable development goals. She expressed interest in INUA as
an initial platform for engaging diverse interest groups in Mongolia while waiting for resilience.io; one
example is in area of education for the disabled.
7. Narantuya Tuya, Director of International Cooperation Division of Ministry of Education. She needed
more information about The Ecological Sequestration Trust & what it is doing in Mongolia, but was
willing to liaise with the Minister and get the Department involved.
23
Annex B
Interim visit 121 interviews and Academics Round Table
Peter Head, Christoph von Waldersee, The Ecological Sequestration Trust 15th – 19th December 2014
15th December
31. Philip Dufty, Andres Bayona, Tumenbayar Sanjaaburen, Tony Blair Associates
32. Tony Mills, Managing Director, and Avirmed Galbadrakh Archetype
33. Amarsanaa Baljinnyam, CEO SOLO, Energy Economics Institute, Ministry of Energy
16th December
At the Mongolia Sustainable Finance Initiative Conference
34. Dulguun Maidar
35. Magvan Bold President MBA
36. Jongjans Aart Chief Risk Officer Xac Bank
37. Professor Adiyasuren Ts. Borjigdkhan, Councellor to Minister of Environment and Green Development
38. Oyunchimeg Myagmarjav CEO Institute for the Future UNEP Tunza
Pre-arranged meetings
39. James Anderson, World Bank, Country Manager and Resident Representative
40. A.J. Bolor, CEO, and G.Bilguun, Newcom Group
17th December Academics Round Table Meeting at FCO British Embassy
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.
vii.
viii.
ix.
x.
Chuluun Togtokh, Director, Institute for Sustainability
Lakshmi Boojoo, Director General of Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research Centre
Tuvshintugs, Director, Economic Research Institute
Bat Buyantsogt, Head of the Green Development Centre, NUM and at Institute for Sustainability
Lodoiravsal Ch, National University of Mongolia
Amarsanaa Ganbold, National University of Mongolia
Khishigbayar, City of Ulaanbaatar
Peter Head, The Ecological Sequestration Trust
Christoph von Waldersee, The Ecological Sequestration Trust
Solongo Ayush, FCO British Embassy Mongolia
18th December
41. Dulguun Maidar Assistant to UN Environment Assembly President at the Ministry of Environment,
Green Development and Tourism
42. HMA Chris Stuart
43. Archetype Tony Mills and Avirmed Galbadrakh
44. Ms Oyun, President of the UN Environment Assembly
45. Dashzeveg Zorigt new Minister of Energy
19th December
46.
47.
48.
49.
Louise Edwards and Peter Wickenden
Battushig KFW
Ms Burmaa R Minister of Food and Agriculture at the Ministry Office.
Scott Brown USAID
24
Annex C
Financing visit 121 meetings
Christoph von Waldersee, The Ecological Sequestration Trust 19th – 23rd January 2015
19th January, 2015
50. Temuulin, Director, Economic Development Agency, City of Ulaanbaatar
20th January, 2015
21st January, 2015
51. Hajime UCHIDA, Chief Representative, and DELGER Gankhuyag, Assistant Manager, SUMITOMO
Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC)
52. Bat-Uul Erdene, Governor and Mayor, City of Ulaanbaatar and Temuulin, Director, Economic
Development Agency, City of Ulaanbaatar
53. Mr. TSERENDASH Sugarragchaa, NEXUS National Coordinator, Integrated Resource Management in
Asian Cities
22nd January, 2015
54. Dulguun Maidar, Assistant to Mrs Oyun, Assistant to the UN Environment Assembly President
55. Sascha Stadtler, Director KfW Mongolia, Head of Country Off. Mongolia and of German Development
Agencies
56. BOLD Magvan, CEO Xac Bank, and Ms DELGERJARGAL Bayanjargal, VP, Retail Banking, and Ms
TUUL Galzagd, Director, Eco Banking Department
57. Tony Mills, Archetype Group LLC
23rd January, 2015
58.
59.
60.
61.
62.
63.
Lakshmi Boojoo, Director General, The Economic Policy & Competitiveness Research Center
Aart Jongejans, Director Risk Management, XacBank
BAT Myanganbayar, Green Rewards
Tuyen D. Nguyen, Resident Representative, IFC/World Bank, Mongolia
Marc A. TASSE, BCom, MGM, MIBA, PMP; Res. Director, American Center for Mongolian Studies
Henk de Pauw, Team Leader, Support Modernisation of Mongolia’s Standardisation System (EuropeAid
Mongolia project)
25
Annex D
In-depth cognitive modelling interviews
1. Chuluun Togtokh - Institute for Sustainability – via Skype.
Chuluun identified current successes in implementing green development goals in Mongolia, both rural and
urban, and believes the next focus should be on sustainable regional settlements determined by water sources,
climate change and economic activities. Five economic regions (Ulaanbaatar, western, khangai, central and
eastern) should have different visions and planning for sustainable development. He emphasised the need to link
science and policy, to make good connections with the private sector, and to develop modellers who can
participate in the design of the resilience.io model and apply it directly to Mongolian conditions.
The biggest challenge facing the project is the need for collaboration. Mongolia’s advantages are the common
purpose shared by diverse interest groups, the number of young people who have studied in Western countries,
and the new President of NUM, who will hopefully champion to make NUM a research-led university.
2. Chuluunbat – Economics Advisor to the Government, and former Minister of Economic Development.
He spoke of difficult economic conditions: missed economic targets have led to a lack of foreign investment, with
significant impact on salaries and purchasing power. A new economic strategy will create a good investment
environment, and legislation - the best in the world - has already been passed governing investment, mining, and
gas and exploration. The key challenges are to work with international communities, to engage with the private
sector, to implement the planned changes, and to upgrade the whole education system.
3. Amarsanaa Ganbold – NUM.
Amarsanaa’s focus is on the importance of open data and he is leading the Open Data Initiative in Mongolia. A
collaboration between NUM, the City of Ulaanbaatar, and resilience.io is particularly important. In addition
Mongolia needs good, high-quality researchers, an education system to encourage real talent, and a change of
mind set towards openness and transparency.
4. Ms Lakshmi - Economic and Policy Centre.
A major challenge she identified is constant political change, and the consequent lack of ‘public memory’. This
can be remedied by the involvement of a think tank or NGO that stands outside the political process. Being
outside politics allows for greater freedom of thought, and the country needs people whose interest is in
Mongolia, not in personal status. Socially there is a need for greater equality - the wealth gap is growing – and
for more discipline in the democratic process. Key challenges are a collapsing infrastructure in the face of the
exploding birth rate, a lack of experience in managing big projects, and an erroneous perception by foreign
investors of the Mongolian character.
For The Ecological Sequestration Trust, the issues might be sources of data, an unwillingness to share
knowledge, and some people who might want to exploit the platform for their own ends.
For INUA, practical hands-on skill-development would be very well received, even for top graduates. There are
many unemployed graduates who could be supported to set up their own enterprise – a move currently being
encouraged by the new Industry Ministry. To develop more industry and to avoid gaps and duplication
collaboration and benchmarking between aimags should be encouraged.
5. Bat Buyanstogt - NUM.
Bat sees a great need for the modelling platform to help decision-making for Ulaanbaatar and the ger areas. He
is an expert in energy transition for Mongolia, and recommends a move from coal to solar and wind power for
national coverage, and geothermal power for local use. Rural communities are changing slowly, and the use of
cell phones (4m users – more than the population of the country) is having beneficial economic impact in rural
communities – e.g. immediate market information about prices of meat, cashmere, etc. that allows for better
trading decisions. Land management policies are also having an impact in engaging communities to improve
pasture quality.
26
For The Ecological Sequestration Trust, collaborative success will come from engaging academics, companies,
Government and NGOs at a senior level in the Collaboratory. This ensures balanced interests; pressure from
civil society will further encourage transparency and accountability.
6. Tuvshintugs - Economics Research Institute.
He sees two constraints for The Ecological Sequestration Trust. Human capacity is the first – the population is so
small that research is hard, with little access to information, to mentors and to resources. MOOCs could begin to
build wider capacity in the areas of economics and systems modelling, but it will not be resolved quickly. It will
need time, luck and political stability.
Governance is a second constraint. It can be done internally, but requires a better understanding of the problem.
It will be important to ensure that Mongolians are trained and committed to the platform to ensure continuity. He
suggested that an emphasis on the innovative application and scale of the resilience.io platform, together with
the impact it could have, would make it more easily understood and embraced, rather than focussing on
innovation in technology.
Mongolia’s advantages are that there is little bureaucracy to inhibit new ideas in policy-making. Networks are
very important to cut through red tape and administrative and legislative loops. He also cited the importance of
pressure groups to raise issues and maintain independence from political interests. Real success will come from
a single vision, the capacity to deliver, trustworthy implementation, and continuity.
Annex E
Radar Screening visit 121 meetings
Peter Head, The Ecological Sequestration Trust, Catherine Allinson, Future Earth, Sandy McDowell and Liza
Charlton, INUA 2nd – 6th February 2015
3rd February
64. Minister Tsogtbaatar, Damdin - Ministry of Construction and Urban Development, with Tselmuun,
Manlaijav (officer), Lkhamserjid Altangerel and Batbayar Munkhuu
65. Orkhon - (new) President of the Mongolian Bankers Association and First Deputy at TDB
66. Luvsanjamts, Lkham - Director, Dept of Innovation and Higher Technology (and colleague)
67. Randolf Koppa, CEO, Trade and Development Bank
68. Minister OYUNKHOROL Dulamsuren - Ministry of Environment, Green Development and Tourism and
YERUULT Bayart, Director, Division of International Cooperation
69. Baigalmaa, Shurka - General Manager, Social Performance at Oyu Tolgoi via teleconf.
6th February
70. Dr Soe Nyunt-U World Health Organisation, Dr Delgermaa Vanya, WHO Technical Officer / ENH and
GANCHIMEG Ulziibayar, Director, National Centre for Public Health and CHIMEDDULAM Dalaijamts,
Head of Department of Environmental and Occupational Health
71. Hajime Uchida – Sumimoto Mitsui Bank
72. B. Badral – General Manager of Ulaanbaatar City and Head of Mayor's Office, Scott MacDonald,
Advisor and secondee Asia Foundation.
73. Bat-Ulzii – Head of Department Metropolitan Department of IT, Mayor's Office
74. Temuulin – General Director, Economic Development Agency, City of Ulaanbaatar
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Annex F
Radar Screening Planning Forum
5th February
Opening Address: HM Ambassador Chris Stuart: The Ecological Sequestration Trust is the single most
successful project the FCO has seen in Mongolia during his term as Ambassador. Key note speech: Mayor Bat-Uul: The city administration must serve the people not themselves. Services must
be provided with economic security. IT sector must be expanded, capacity improved and new technologies
introduced in partnership with business. The Asia Foundation works with communities at grassroots level to
good effect. The city needs evidence for ‘real’ decision making in order to identify the positive and negative
effects of decisions before they are made and implemented. This can be improved by the better use of data.
The City of Ulaanbaatar needs such a platform. If the Mayor makes a decision, he must be able to look at the
impact on society, on the different areas of the city so resilience.io is very useful. It is also of consequence that
business and ordinary citizens are able to see transparency in decision making which is a good element for
sustainable development.
Presentations by:
Amarsanaa Ganbold, NUM: Resilience.io can be integrated with the e-government programme and the
Ulaanbaatar City smart city programme, using common data and common user interfaces. The government are
moving towards an open-data environment and are bringing forward new legislation to cover it, in addition to the
freedom of information act. All this will enable resilience.io to go ahead.
Sanjjav Samdengeleg, MoFinance: The T21 economic ‘model’ is being used by the Ministry of Finance to aid
decision making, with respect to the social, economic and environmental impacts of policies and investments.
Peter Head: Presentation on the way resilience.io will be used to create collaborative intelligence. Also how it
can be used to attract increased private sector investment and grant funding, like the GCF and MCC. Finally how
T21 and PAGE frameworks can be integrated into the resilience.io platform.
Randolf Koppa, TDB: Mongolia has access to the GCF and two key areas are important: i) mitigation of the
impacts of climate change ii) adaptation due to negative effects. On recent trip to Manila to GCF conference it
was made clear that Mongolia could apply for project funding of around $400m for carbon reduction and health
improvement projects out of the $10bn available and they wanted to spend the money quickly.
Dulguun Maidar, Assistant to UN Environment Assembly President: An integrated approach was recognised as
important to protect the environment including supply chains for construction, renewable energy such as
geothermal and energy efficiency.
INUA - Sandy and Liza Radar Screening Methodology: Participant numbers = start of the day >50 participants
(30 expected); Mayor stayed until after the morning tea break and 35 participants remained to participate in the
Radar Screening methodology. Altanbagana
Myagmarsuren
NUM
Altantsetseg
B
Strategic policy & planning dept. Senior officer
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Amarsanaa
Ganbold
Lecturer
Ayush
Solongo
Prosperity Officer
NUM, School of Engineering and Applied
Sciences
FCO British Embassy Mongolia
Badral
B
General Manager
UB City and Head of Mayor's Office
Bat
Myanganbayar
App developers
Green Rewards
Bat
Bayar
28
Bat
Buyantsogt Prof
Head of and lecturer
Head of the Green Development Centre, NUM
Bat-Uul
Erdene
Govenor of UB and Mayor of the Capital
City of UB
Bayarjargal
Yunden
Director of Science
Nature Conservancy
Bilegsaikhan
D
Ministry of Construction
Binderiya
B
Senior Officer, Urban Development policy and
planning department
International cooperation dept. Senior officer
Chuluun
Togtokh, Dr
New Director of Institute for Sustainable
Development, NUM
Chuluuntsetseg
B
Dulguun
Maidar
Elbot
Noah
Former advisor to Minister of Environment and
Green Development
Food production policy implementation and
coordination dept. Senior officer
Assistant to UN Env Assembly President at the
Ministry of Env and Green Development
Eco Banking
Enhmaa
Enhbat
Compliance Officer
Xac Bank
Enkhtuya
Oidov
Director
Nature Conservancy
Jongejans
Aart
Chief Risk Officer
Xac Bank
Koppa
Randolf
President
Trade & Development Bank
Lakshmi
Boojoo
Head of Development Policy and Strategy
Planning Division
Director
Lodoiravsal
Choimaa
Professor
Maidar
Tsend
Educational Programme developer
Margad
Erdene
Mendbayar
Tserel
Urban Planning Architect
Urban Planning Institute
Mills
Tony
MD
Archetype
Narantsetseg
Daribazar
The Head, Foreign Relations Department
Sec of State
Onon
Munkhchuluun
Oyunchimeg
Myagmarjav
CEO
Institute for the Future, UNEP Tunza
Oyunsuvd
N
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Sanjjav
Samdengeleg
Crop production policy implementation &
coordination dept. Senior officer
T21 model expert
Soe
Nyunt-U
WHO Representative
WHO
Tamir
D
M&E and internal auditing dept. Senior officer
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Temuulin
Enkhmunkh
General Director, Economic Development
Department
City of UB
Khorolsuren
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Ministry of Environment, Green Development
and Tourism
Xac Bank
Economic Development Agency, City of UB
Economic Policy and Competitiveness Research
Center
NUM, School of Engineering and Applied
Sciences
Plant, stove and education programme
City of UB
Archetype
Tsegmed
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Food and Agriculture
Tserendash
S
Tsolmon
Zundui
Tsolmonkhand
Tsogtbaatar
Local Coordinator - Integrated Resource
Management in Asian Cities
Head of Investment and Economic
Cooperation Division
GIZ/UB City/NEXUS
NUM, School of Engineering and Applied
Sciences
Economic Development Agency, City of UB
Chuluuntsetseg
Tuvshin
B
NUM
Tuvshintugs
Batdelger
NUM, Economics Research Institute
Yuruult
Bayart
Head of Foreign relations division
Wickenden
Peter
Deputy Head of Mission
Ministry of Environment, Green Development &
Tourism
FCO British Embassy Mongolia
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Annex G February
Summaries of six project discussion groups and follow up sessions on 6th
Using the Radar Screening methodology, stakeholder groups identified the following goals, actions and
resourcing needs.
1. Geothermal energy.
This often misunderstood and confused with shallow-ground heat pumps. In geothermal energy, vertical drilling
uses the earth’s heat core; this has not yet been tried at scale in Mongolia to generate electricity. There is one
pilot project – a single plant to generate 20-40 megawatts.
The group has 2 goals:
i. the next Combined Heat and Power (CHP) plant 6 to be geothermal.
ii. a geothermal plant outside Ulaanbaatar, designed to attract people back to living outside the City.
International finance is available, but this is dependent on a feasibility study, which will take 5 years. The solution
is to generate domestic motivation to invest in this; a problem is popular resistance to drilling. Value can be
generated by using power plants to produce vegetables and to farm fish through hydroponics. This is a big
business opportunity, with initially high installation costs, but low running costs.
2. Wheat supply and demand policy
The group’s goal is to be an exporter of wheat. This will need a new 10 – 15 year national programme of
activities. Current state of play is that the yield is increasing, the result of incentives for growers, tax variations –
lower at seed time, higher at sale - and subsidies to provide storage capacity.
The challenges include:
• tension between agriculturists and the Government on quality.
• lack of agreement on incentives
• how to attract investment into the wheat sector to enable greater crop diversity
The stakeholders are growers, mills, distribution, logistics, importers/exporters and consumers. To address these
vested interests, there are some possible actions:
• increase subsidies. This will require quality criteria and agreed standards.
• increase the number and quality of testing laboratories and technicians.
• legislation on crop exchange – this needs to engage the stakeholders in the decision-making.
• link up with other Ministries, including health and IT applications; weather conditions have an impact.
3. Establishment of further free trade zones at the borders
There is already one free trade zone (FTZ) established in Mongolia, a partnership between the Mongolian
Government and private commercial entities. More are needed. Further free trade zones would stimulate trade
with China and Korea, and would attract foreign tourism and foreign investment into FTZ regions. It would also
encourage export on a new scale, promoting home-grown enterprise within Mongolia – a significant contribution
to wealth and lifestyle improvement in the country.
Specifically a FTZ would have significant impact on construction and food – key areas for sustainable
development in the country. Currently imports – e.g. cement from China and Russia. They are low quality and
high cost. Border controls add to the expense and the complexity of trade; a FTZ would generate competition,
reduce prices, raise quality and accelerate the huge need for renewed infrastructure in the country. Agreement
between stakeholders is essential for legislation, but challenges include cautious attitudes to change in the
legislature, vested interests and external pressures.
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4. ‘Greenhouse’ capability for ger dwellers to grow vegetables and berries
Here the group identified new ways to engage manufacturers in building prototypes; a need for fewer stoves to
prove feasibility (10 instead of 90), and the engagement of students in building and marketing the product. A new
and efficient heating stove is needed to support unemployed and low-income families who face big challenges. If
successful it would:
• provide heat in winter, growing capacity in summer
• supply training in horticulture
• generate economic opportunities
• improve the quality of life in rural areas
• reduce alcoholism
• reduce air pollution
What are needed are more efficient heating stoves. There are several options on design; once built, the system
can be implemented in 2 days. It would heat a home and additional growing space for 600MNT per month. The
challenges are:
• lack of seed funding. One stove has been made, but 90 are required for case studies over a year. (cost
is 36m MNT per stove.)
• marketing to stakeholders and the end-users
5. Mobile phone app to engage children & fund green initiatives
This is a reward-based download system. The vision is to encourage society to take up green ideas.
There are 4 areas to address:
• companies to promote their products and services
• users to be educated and informed (use Twitter)
• technical capacity
• funding
The priority was identified as the users. Other areas would be addressed on a predetermined timeline:
• 3 months – aggressive marketing. This requires a good segmented data base, the use of social media
to bridge the gap in marketing, and a really engaging campaign.
• 6 months – attract products and services. This needs incentives – the first 3 months free; tiered pricing;
cheap rate for NGOs, higher rate for private sector…
• 12 months – launch of the app outside Mongolia
This work was continued at the Friday morning extension Forum.
In the Radar Screen Enterprise field the group clarified their parameters of success:
100,000 users; 40+ products; mind set change achieved; raised awareness of green technology
6. Integration and behavioural change for incoming youngsters to the City
The change in culture between rural and city dwelling is significant for young migrants. A lack of clarity and
mutual understanding between the attitudes of newcomers and the established population causes tensions and
limits the ability of newcomers to thrive.
The vision is to encourage newcomers to become accountable citizens of Ulaanbaatar. This can be done
through education in communication, ICT and citizenship.
The problem requires:
• a baseline analysis of needs
• then goal definition with stakeholders – 1 year, 3 years, 5 years
Stakeholders are the municipality and NGOs.
There was a belief in the group that behaviour change will take a long time.
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