Solar Economy to Solve all our
Challenges
Christian Breyer
Professor for Solar Economy, LUT
Lappeenranta, May 21, 2015
What is the Vision?
3
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
What is the key problem?
“Climate Change presents a unique challenge for economics: it is the
greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen.”
N. Stern, Economics of Climate Change, 2006
4
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
What is the task?
source:
IPCC, 2014. 5th AR – Synthesis Report
5
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Key insights:
 GHG emissions in the power sector to be zero by 2050
 ALL new investments MUST fulfill this requirement quite soon
What is the pathway? (as defined by Fortum)
Fortum’s compass Energy is an enabler
Solar Economy
High Efficiency
Solar based production with
high overall system efficiency
Wind
Geothermal
CHP
Advanced
energy production
Ocean
Bio
Interconnectors
Energy efficient and/or
low-emission production
Low Efficiency
Storage
Nuclear
tomorrow
Traditional
energy production
6
Sun
Hydro
Exhaustible fuels that
burden the environment
Oil
Coal
Gas
Solar
HighEconomy
Emissionsto Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Demand
Response
Active
Consumer
Smart
applications
CCS
Nuclear
today
source: Brunila A., 2012. Fortum – Power
andfree
heat company in
Emission
the Nordic countries, Russia, Poland and the Baltics
Are there limitations in resources?
Key insights:
• no lack of energy
resouces
• limited conventional
resources
• solar and wind resources
need to be the major
pillars of a sustainable
energy supply
Remark:
• conventional resources
might be lower than
depicted by Perez
7
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
source:
Perez R. and Perez M., 2009. A fundamental look on energy reserves for the
planet. The IEA SHC Solar Update, Volume 50
What are the real low carbon investments?
8
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
source:
Schneider M. and Froggatt A., 2014. The World Nuclear Industry Status Report
What are the expectations till 2030?
Solar PV
CSP
Wind
9
1764 GW
714 GW
2908 GW
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
1840 GW
20 GW
1318 GW
1721 GW
261 GW
960 GW
NPS
450
647 GW 856 GW
42 GW 86 GW
982 GW 1288 GW
source: Greenpeace, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
What’s about the economics of solar PV?
10
Solar
to Solve
all our Challenges
source:Economy
ITRPV, 2015.
International
Technology Roadmap for
Christian Photovoltaic
Breyer ► [email protected]
– 2014 Results, ITRPV supported by semi
benefits
What are the CO2 reduction costs of PV?
download at:
www.researchgate.net/publication/276295389_Profitable_climat
e_change_mitigation_The_case_of_greenhouse_gas_emission
_reduction_benefits_enabled_by_solar_photovoltaic_systems
11
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
What’s about the PV economics in Finland?
source: REC Solar, 2014. Study on the Profitability of Commercial
Self-Consumption Solar Installations in Germany; Italy and
Turkey (only in German available)
Lappeenranta University of Technology
• both systems on the right are part of a 220 kWp
commercial solar PV system
• it is financially beneficial for the university
source: Kosonen A., Ahola J., Breyer Ch., Albó A., 2014. Large Scale Solar
Power Plant in Nordic Conditions, 16th EU Conference on Power
Electronics and Applications, August 26-28
12
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
How progressive is Finland within in Europe?
13
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
What if …?
What if per capita solar PV would be in Finland comparable to South Germany?










… then we would have 3.7 GW installed solar PV capacity.
… then we would have an additional source of income for farmers.
… then we would have created 23000 jobs.
… then we would have a higher tax income.
… then we would have reduced the societal cost of CO2 emissions.
… then we would have active participation of citizens in the energy transformation.
… then we would have the basis for new business opportunies arising, such as storage.
… then we would have less dependency on foreign energy imports.
… then we would have an improved trade balance.
…
… BTW,
Finns wonder how Germany can afford all these New Renewables.
Germans wonder how Finland can still afford old nuclear energy.
14
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Is there a revised energy vision for Finland?
 A very first fully sustainable and holistic
view on the Finnish Energy System will be
published in June
 It is fully cost competitive
 Key technologies are: wind energy,
bioenergy, solar PV, heat pumps, EV,
batteries, power-to-gas
 Zero CO2 emissions are possible
 New business opportunities all around
 Fully inline with latest findings for Denmark,
Germany, Ireland and France
15
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
Thanks for your attention!
Cost of ’cleantech’ solutions
Key insights:
 PV-Wind-Gas is the least cost option
 nuclear and coal-CCS is too expensive
 nuclear and coal-CCS are high risk technologies
 high value added for PV-Wind due to higher
capacities needed
18
source: Agora Energiewende, 2014. Comparing the Cost of Low-Carbon Technologies: What is the Cheapest option;
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Grubler A., 2010. The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing, Energy Policy, 38, 5174
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
What’s about subsidies?
Key insights:
 there are subsidies for RE
 subsidies for fossil-nuclear are higher
 nuclear got AND get the highest
subsides per kWh of all technologies
 subsides in total are 649 b€ (fossilnuclear) plus 102 b€ (RE) in 1970-2014
 total societal costs of of RE are lower
than those of fossil-nuclear energy
19
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
source: FÖs, 2014. Was Strom wirklich kostet
100% RE in Germany – Fraunhofer ISE
20
Solar Economy to Solve all our Challenges
Christian Breyer ► [email protected]
source: Henning H.-M. and Palzer A., 2012. 100 % Renewables for Electricity and Heat – a
Holistic Model for a Future German Energy System , 7th IRES, Berlin