5/19/2015 Fitch Ratings | Press Release Fitch Downgrades 5 Spanish Banks on Support Revision Ratings Endorsement Policy 19 May 2015 11:49 AM (EDT) Fitch RatingsBarcelona19 May 2015: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the Longterm Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of Bankia, S.A. to 'BB+' from 'BBB', and of Banco Mare Nostrum, S.A. (BMN) and Liberbank, S.A. to 'BB' from 'BB+'. At the same time, Banco Popular Espanol S.A. (Popular) and Grupo Cooperativo Cajamar (GCC) have been downgraded to Longterm IDR 'BB', from 'BB+' and 'BB', respectively. The Outlooks are Positive for Bankia and Popular, and Stable for BMN, Liberbank and GCC. Prior to today's rating action, the Negative Outlooks had reflected Fitch's view of the reducing likelihood of support from the sovereign for these banks' senior creditors. A full list of rating actions is available at the end of this rating action commentary. The rating actions are in conjunction with Fitch's review of sovereign support for banks globally, which the agency announced in March 2014. In line with its expectations announced in March last year and communicated regularly since then, Fitch believes legislative, regulatory and policy initiatives have substantially reduced the likelihood of sovereign support for US, Swiss and European Union commercial banks. As a result, Fitch believes that, in line with our Support Rating (SR) definition of '5', extraordinary external support while possible can no longer be relied upon for any of the banks listed above. We have, therefore, downgraded their SRs to '5' from '2' for Bankia and to '5' from '3' for Popular, BMN, Liberbank and GCC and revised their Support Rating Floors (SRFs) to 'No Floor' from 'BBB' for Bankia, from 'BB+' for Popular, BMN and Liberbank and from 'BB' for GCC. As a result of the revision to the SRFs, these banks' Longterm IDRs are now driven by their standalone creditworthiness as expressed in their respective Viability Ratings (VRs), which have been affirmed at 'bb+' for Bankia, 'bb' for BMN and Liberbank, and 'bb' for Popular and GCC. Simultaneously, Fitch has downgraded BFA, Tenedora de Acciones, S.A.U.'s (BFA, Bankia's holding company) SR to '5' from '3' and has revised its SRF to 'No Floor' from 'BB'. BFA's other ratings, including its VRdriven Longterm IDR at 'BB' with a Positive Outlook, are unaffected by this rating action. The rating actions are also part of a periodic portfolio review of a number of Spanish banking groups rated by Fitch. The sector continues to recover, supported by improved macroeconomic trends. GDP grew modestly by 1.4% in 2014 and we expect this to accelerate to 2.5% in 2015 and 2.3% in 2016. Better economic prospects should help temper pressure on banks' asset quality, which Fitch expects to have peaked during 2014, and, indirectly on earnings, including through reduced provisioning needs. However, downside risks for banks remain, for example if unemployment stays stubbornly high and the property market remains depressed despite some recent signs of improvement, thus hampering a more meaningful economic recovery. Fitch also expects preimpairment income from core banking activities to remain subdued in a low interest rate environment, partially offset by lower funding costs, that is also still characterised by muted volumes, despite early signs of recovery. Funding and liquidity profiles are generally sound and most banks have enhanced their capitalisation. KEY RATING DRIVERS IDRS, VR AND SENIOR DEBT Bankia's IDRs, senior debt ratings and VR reflect a fairly large although declining problem asset portfolio. This leaves the bank's capitalisation, although strengthened, still vulnerable to shocks to asset prices or economic deterioration. However, Bankia's VR also considers improvements to profitability, supported by efficiency gains achieved from the execution of restructuring targets ahead of plan. However, earnings have so far significantly relied on https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?print=1&pr_id=984912 1/6 5/19/2015 Fitch Ratings | Press Release interest earned from securities funded by ECB funds. Bankia's main challenge is to expand its SME footprint and rebuild core banking earnings. The bank's funding and liquidity profile continues to improve, primarily due to deposit growth and regained debt capital market access. But reliance on the ECB for funding will remain high as it is used to fund a large stock of legacy fixedincome securities, including those related to the transfer of real estate assets to Spain's bad bank (SAREB). Liquidity reserves are adequate for scheduled debt repayments. BFA's IDR is notched down once from Bankia's because Fitch believes that the former's strategy is to gradually reduce its majority ownership. Other factors driving BFA's ratings include potential litigation exposure, a moderate doubleleverage ratio and a manageable debt maturity profile given its stock of unencumbered assets. The Positive Outlook on Bankia's Longterm IDR reflects upside rating potential as the bank continues to reduce the stock of problem assets and further strengthen capital. The Outlook on BFA's Longterm IDR is also Positive, mirroring that of Bankia. Popular's IDRs, senior debt ratings and VR factor in the bank's weak asset quality, due to a large exposure to problematic real estate development assets. This in turn puts pressure on its internal capital generation capacity and leaves capital vulnerable to additional collateral valuation shocks. The ratings also reflect Popular's strong SME banking franchise in Spain, which provides healthy recurrent revenues, and the bank's adequate funding and liquidity position. The Positive Outlook on Popular's Longterm IDR reflects upside rating potential, largely related to a positive reversal in its asset quality trend. Fitch expects new nonperforming loan (NPL) entries to decline and loan recoveries and foreclosed asset sales to accelerate over the next 12 to 18 month, which should ease pressure on the bank's capital base. BMN's and Liberbank's IDRs, senior debt ratings and VRs reflect their strong regional franchises, improved capitalisation, adequate funding and liquidity and progress made in their restructuring, resulting in efficiency gains. The ratings also factor in these banks' still weak but improving asset quality, with a large proportion of restructured loans at BMN (largely relating to individuals) and a large legacy portfolio of problematic assets under an asset protection scheme (APS) at Liberbank. The Stable Outlooks on BMN's and Liberbank's Longterm IDRs reflect Fitch's expectation that their credit profiles are set to further stabilise, supported by an improved macroeconomic environment. GCC's IDRs, senior debt ratings and VR reflect its weakerthansector average asset quality metrics and the vulnerability of its capital base to unreserved problem assets (over 1.5x Fitch Capital Core (FCC)). GCC's NPL ratio remains high, but sizeable capital gains on the sale of assets, including the real estate management subsidiary, supported the group's additional provisioning efforts and internal capital generation at end2014. The Stable Outlook on GCC's Longterm IDR assumes that the bank will continue to focus on managing its problem assets, extending the downward trend seen since end2013 during which the NPL reserve coverage ratio has strengthened. RATING SENSITIVITIES IDRS, VR AND SENIOR DEBT The banks' IDRs and senior debt ratings are sensitive to a change in their VRs. The ratings could be upgraded if there is a sustained reduction in problem assets while preserving capital. Further consolidation of the positive economic trends in Spain and better prospects for its property market would help to accelerate foreclosed asset sales and loan recoveries, ultimately benefitting the ratings. At the same time, improvements in core revenue generation and lower provisioning needs could provide relief to bottomline earnings and thus improve their internal capital generation capacity. Conversely, these ratings could be downgraded primarily if Fitch perceives renewed pressures on asset quality and hence on earnings and capital. Fitch does not currently factor into its ratings any potential changes related to the treatment of deferred tax assets. However, in the event of the removal of the explicit stateguarantee on the recoverability of a portion of the banks' deferred tax assets the ratings may come under pressure as this would, in some cases, affect the banks' capital measures. BFA's ratings are sensitive to the same considerations that might drive a change in Bankia's ratings. In addition, BFA's ratings could be affected by a change in shareholding, a lower value or liquidity of its investments and/or https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?print=1&pr_id=984912 2/6 5/19/2015 Fitch Ratings | Press Release by higher debt levels and doubleleverage. KEY RATING DRIVERS AND SENSITIVITIES SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR The SR and SRF reflect Fitch's view that senior creditors can no longer rely on receiving full extraordinary support from the sovereign in the event that any of these banks becomes nonviable. In Fitch's view, the EU's Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM) are now sufficiently progressed to provide a framework for resolving banks that is likely to require senior creditors participating in losses, if necessary, instead of or ahead of a bank receiving sovereign support. In the EU, BRRD has been effective in member states since 1 January 2015, including minimum loss absorption requirements before resolution financing or alternative financing (eg, government stabilisation funds) can be used. Full application of BRRD, including the bailin tool, is required from 1 January 2016. The Spanish law for the restructuring and resolution of banks was enacted in 2012. Fitch expects BRRD to be transposed into national legislation in the next few months, with full application from January 2016. Any upgrade to the SR and upward revision to the SRF would be contingent on a positive change in the sovereign's propensity to support its banks. While not impossible, this is highly unlikely in Fitch's view. KEY RATING DRIVERS AND SENSITIVITIES SUBORDINATED DEBT AND OTHER HYBRID SECURITIES Subordinated debt and other hybrid capital issued by Bankia and by Popular and its issuing vehicles are all notched down from their respective VRs in accordance with Fitch's assessment of each instrument's respective nonperformance and relative loss severity risk profiles, which vary considerably. They have, therefore, been affirmed due to the affirmation of both banks' VR. Their ratings are primarily sensitive to any change in Bankia's and Popular's VRs respectively. Bankia's and Popular's subordinated (lower Tier 2) debt issues are rated one notch below the respective banks' VRs to reflect the belowaverage loss severity of this type of debt compared with average recoveries. Popular's preference shares are rated three notches below the bank's VR to reflect the higher loss severity risk of these securities (two notches) compared with average recoveries as well as moderate risk of non performance relative to its VR (one notch). The coupon on these instruments can be paid out of distributable reserves. SUSBIDIARY AND AFFILIATED COMPANY KEY RATING DRIVERS AND SENSITIVITIES Banco CLM's IDRs and senior debt ratings are aligned with Liberbank's as Fitch views it as an integral part of Liberbank's core business. Banco CLM is highly integrated into the group and strengthens the bank's franchise in CastillaLa Mancha and provides geographical diversification to the group. Banco CLM, a 75%owned bank subsidiary of Liberbank, is the spunoff banking business of the failed Caja de Ahorros de CastillaLa Mancha (CCM) and is fully consolidated into the group's accounts. Banco CLM's IDRs are sensitive to those of Liberbank and/or to any change in the level of relative importance of Banco CLM within the group, which Fitch sees as unlikely. Banco de Credito Social Cooperativo S.A. (BCC) is the central institution of GCC and as such its IDRs, SR and SRF mirror those of the banking group. At the same time the IDRs of Cajas Rurales Unidas, SCC (CRU), the largest member of the group, are equalised with those of GCC. BCC's and CRU's ratings are sensitive to any change in the ratings of GCC. KEY RATING DRIVERS AND SENSITIVITES STATEGUARANTEED DEBT BFA's stateguaranteed debt issues have been affirmed at 'BBB+', in line with Spain's Longterm IDR. State guaranteed debt issues are senior unsecured instruments that bear the full guarantee of Spain. Consequently, its ratings are the higher of the issuer's Longterm IDR and Spain's Longterm IDR. BFA's stateguaranteed debt rating is sensitive to changes to Spain's sovereign ratings. The rating actions are as follows: Bankia: Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB+' from 'BBB'; Outlook Positive Shortterm IDR: downgraded to 'B' from 'F3' Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bb+' Support Rating: downgraded to '5' from '2' Support Rating Floor: revised to 'No Floor' from 'BBB' https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?print=1&pr_id=984912 3/6 5/19/2015 Fitch Ratings | Press Release Longterm senior unsecured debt: downgraded to 'BB+' from 'BBB' Commercial paper: downgraded to 'B' from 'F3' Subordinated debt: affirmed at 'BB' BFA: Longterm IDR: unaffected at 'BB'; Outlook Positive Shortterm IDR: unaffected at 'B' Viability Rating: unaffected at 'bb' Support Rating: downgraded to '5' from '3' Support Rating Floor: revised to 'No Floor' from 'BB' Longterm senior unsecured debt: unaffected at 'BB' Stateguaranteed debt: unaffected at 'BBB+' Popular: Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+'; Outlook Positive Shortterm IDR: affirmed at 'B' Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bb' Support Rating: downgraded to '5' from '3' Support Rating Floor: revised to 'No Floor' from 'BB+' Longterm senior unsecured debt programme: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+' Shortterm senior unsecured debt programme and commercial paper: affirmed at 'B' Subordinated lower Tier 2 debt: affirmed at 'B+' BPE Financiaciones S.A.: Longterm senior unsecured debt and debt programme (guaranteed by Popular): downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+' Shortterm senior unsecured debt programme (guaranteed by Popular): affirmed at 'B' BPE Preference International Limited: Preference shares: affirmed at 'B' Popular Capital, S.A. Preference shares: affirmed at 'B' BMN: Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+'; Outlook Stable Shortterm IDR: affirmed at 'B' Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bb' Support Rating: downgraded to '5' from '3' Support Rating Floor: revised to 'No Floor' from 'BB+' Commercial paper Longterm rating: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+' Commercial paper Shortterm rating: affirmed at 'B' Senior unsecured debt Longterm rating: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+' Senior unsecured debt Shortterm rating: affirmed at 'B' Liberbank: Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+'; Outlook Stable Shortterm IDR: affirmed at 'B' Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bb' Support Rating: downgraded to '5' from '3' Support Rating Floor: revised to 'No Floor' from 'BB+' Banco CLM: Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+'; Outlook Stable Shortterm IDR: affirmed at 'B' Support Rating: affirmed at '3' Senior unsecured debt: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB+' GCC (formerly Grupo Cooperativo Cajas Rurales Unidas): Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB', Outlook Stable Shortterm IDR: affirmed at 'B' https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?print=1&pr_id=984912 4/6 5/19/2015 Fitch Ratings | Press Release Viability Rating: affirmed at 'bb' Support Rating: downgraded to '5' from '3' Support Rating Floor: revised to 'No Floor' from 'BB' BCC: Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB', Outlook Stable Shortterm IDR: affirmed at 'B' Support Rating: downgraded to '5' from '3' Support Rating Floor: revised to 'No Floor' from 'BB' CRU: Longterm IDR: downgraded to 'BB' from 'BB', Outlook Stable Shortterm IDR: affirmed at 'B' Senior unsecured Shortterm debt: affirmed at 'B' Contact: Primary Analysts Cristina Torrella (Bankia, BFA) Senior Director +34 93 323 8405 Fitch Ratings Espana S.A.U. Paseo de Gracia, 85 7th Floor 08008 Barcelona Josep Colomer, CFA (BMN, Liberbank, CLM) Director +34 93 323 8416 Fitch Ratings Espana S.A.U. Paseo de Gracia, 85 7th Floor 08008 Barcelona Roger Turro (GCC, BCC, CRU, Popular, BPE Financiaciones S.A., BPE Preference International Limited, Popular Capital, S.A.) Director +34 93 323 8406 Fitch Ratings Espana S.A.U. Paseo de Gracia, 85 7th Floor 08008 Barcelona Secondary Analysts Josep Colomer, CFA (Bankia, BFA) Director +34 93 323 8416 Josu Fabo, CFA (Liberbank, CLM, Popular, BPE Financiaciones S.A., BPE Preference International Limited, Popular Capital, S.A.)) Director +44 20 3530 1513 Belen Vazquez (GCC, BCC, CRU) Associate Director +44 20 3530 1504 Arnau Autonell (BMN) Analyst +44 20 3530 1712 Committee Chairperson Erwin Van Lumich, CFA Managing Director +34 93 323 8403 https://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?print=1&pr_id=984912 5/6 5/19/2015 Fitch Ratings | Press Release Media Relations: Elaine Bailey, London, Tel: +44 203 530 1153, Email: [email protected]. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable criteria, Global Bank Rating Criteria, 20 March 2015, are available on www.fitchratings.com. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Global Bank Rating Criteria Additional Disclosure Solicitation Status ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. PLEASE READ THESE LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS BY FOLLOWING THIS LINK: HTTP://FITCHRATINGS.COM/UNDERSTANDINGCREDITRATINGS. 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