firmus energy Distribution Limited
Forecast Network Capacity Statement for Gas Year 2015/16
20 March 2015
1. Licence Obligation to publish a Forecast Network Capacity Statement
As per licence condition 2.12 of the firmus energy conveyance licence, firmus
energy Distribution Limited (feDL) book and hold capacity on the Postalised
Transmission Network for all shippers who operate within the feDL licence
area. As per this licence condition, feDL book this capacity to ensure that
sufficient gas can be conveyed to meet daily firm demand which is likely to be
exceeded only in 1 year out of 20 years. feDL is further required under this
licence condition to carry out a consultation process with gas suppliers
acceded to the feDL Distribution Network Code and to then produce and
publish a Forecast Network Capacity Statement.
It should be noted that, due to proposed changes to the transmission regime
within Northern Ireland (NI), from the 1st October 2015, feDL energy will book
and hold the required capacity at the relevant exit point only. Gas suppliers
operating within a distribution network will be required to secure sufficient
capacity at the entry point into the NI transmission system.
2. Determining the forecast daily firm capacity for Gas Year 2014/2015
In calculating the postalised capacity feDL has considered the relationship
between consumption and temperature.
Regression analysis was carried out on historical volume data and the
corresponding temperature data, which looked at the temperature on the
coldest day in the last 50 years (which was -10.1 degrees Celsius), and the
corresponding firm consumption.
We examined our firm volume on our peak day in the current gas year and
applied the relationship between temperature and volume to estimate the
peak day for the current firm customer base for a 1-in-20 year’s peak demand.
Load growth has been accounted for by uplifting the calculated peak in
proportion to the increase in firm AQ from winter 2014/15 to winter 2015/16.
1
Table 1: Forecast capacity booking for Gas Year 2015/16
Firm peak day to date
Uplift to account for load
growth and a 1-in-20
winter
Total
(000s therms)
195
84
(MWhs)
5,723
2,462
279
8,186
3. Impact on Postalised Capacity Charges
Under the proposed changes to the Northern Ireland Transmission regime it is
anticipated that the current Postalised Capacity Charge will be split into an
Entry and Exit charge from 1st October 2015, however, at the time of
preparing this statement the forecasted Entry and Exit tariffs for Gas Year
15/16 are not yet available, therefore, the tariff used to demonstrate the
impact of the proposed change to the capacity booking is based on the
current published forecast Postalised Capacity charge for Gas Year 15/16.
Using the published forecast capacity charge for Gas Year 2015/16 and the
forecast volumes for the feDL network, feDL estimate an increase in firm
capacity of 1,126 MWh (38k therms). This equates to an increase in the
forecast Postalised Capacity Charge of 3%.
Table 2: Current capacity booking for current Gas Year and forecast capacity
booking for Gas Year 2015/2016 for firm distribution volumes
Current Postalised
Capacity Booking
Forecast Postalised
Capacity Booking
Variance
Capacity Booking (000s
therms)
241
Capacity Booking (MWhs)
279
8,186
38
1,126
7,060
Table 3: Forecast capacity charge expressed in commodity terms
Gas year 2015/2016
Current Postalised
capacity charge expressed
in commodity terms for
current capacity booking
Forecast Postalised
capacity charge expressed
in commodity terms for
revised capacity booking
Forecast increase
Percentage forecast
Increase
Pence per kWh
0.1878
Pence per therm
5.504
0.1938
5.679
0.006
0.18
3%
2
4. Conclusions and recommendations
Using regression analysis, forecasted load growth and experience of a 1-in-50
winter, feDL believe the methodology used above is fit for purpose.
Furthermore, feDL did not receive any comments or queries regarding the
Draft Forecast Network Capacity Statement published for consultation. feDL
will therefore submit an application to the Transmission Operators to request
an increase in the current capacity booking of 7,060 MWh to 8,186 MWh.
feDL will request this additional firm exit capacity for the period 1st October
2015 to 30th September 2020.
3