LOYOLA MARYMOUNT UNIVERSITY | 2015
PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF THE REGION
Forecast LA would like to thank the following companies and organizations for their support
california
community
foundation
PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF THE REGION
Forecast LA Program
Tuesday, April 7, 2015 | Gersten Pavilion
Breakfast
Welcome
David W. Burcham, President, Loyola Marymount University
Opening Remarks
Don Knabe, LA County Board of Supervisors, 4th District
International, National, & State Economic Forecast
Chris Thornberg, Beacon Economics
Regional & Local Economic Forecast
Jordan Levine, Beacon Economics
PARKING
COMPANY OF AMERICA
Public & Leaders Outlook Survey
Fernando Guerra, Center for the Study of Los Angeles
Break
The Future of Higher Learning in California
Francisco C. Rodriguez, LACCD Chancellor
Eloy O. Oakley, Long Beach City College Superintendent/President
Chui L. Tsang, Santa Monica College Superintendent/President
Closing Remarks
John Chiang, California State Treasurer
For more information:
Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeleles
Loyola Marymount University
1 LMU Drive, Suite 4119, Los Angeles, CA 90045 310.338.4565
[email protected]
CONTENTS
FORECAST LA
Contents
ABOUT US & AUTHORS ........................................4
SUMMARY .........................................................7
METHODOLOGY ..................................................8
CHAPTER 1: DEMOGRAPHICS...............................10
CHAPTER 2: OUTLOOK........................................16
CHAPTER 3: CIVIC & ECONOMIC REALITIES...........24
CHAPTER 4: CULTURAL IDENTITY.........................30
CHAPTER 5: LEVELS OF SATISFACTION.................36
CENTER ACTIVITIES ..........................................42
MISSION..........................................................45
Angeleno?
SPONSORS ......................................................48
What does it mean to be an
“
Cutting-edge. Free spirited. Dreamer.
Tiene el mejor clima y es la mejor ciudad.
Adapts to change.
Nunca me he sentido discriminada, eso me hace angelina.
Always evolving and reinventing.
Metropolitan. Industrious. Capable. Innovative.
Este es mi nuevo hogar.
There is a certain confidence about us. The sun’s always out.
Me considero más angelino que latino
Hardworking. Quick-witted. Flexible. Adaptable.
Ser bilingüe.
”
Love of Los Angeles. Love of cultures. Diversity. Good food. Tolerance.
—Respondents from Loyola Marymount University’s 2015 Public Outlook Survey
2015 | FORECAST LA
3
ABOUT US
About Us
AUTHOR BIOS
The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount
University is one of the leading undergraduate research centers in the nation. It is a respected
leader in public opinion surveys, exit polling, and leadership and community studies. Founded
in 1996, the Center also conducts groundbreaking research on voter preferences and voting
patterns, quality of life concerns, and contemporary urban issues. The Center provides
rigorous, mentored research experiences for undergraduate students at LMU.
Loyola Marymount University
Located between the Pacific Ocean and downtown Los Angeles, Loyola Marymount University
is a comprehensive university offering 60 major programs, 39 master’s degree programs,
one education doctorate, one doctorate in juridical science, one juris doctorate, and 10
credential programs from four colleges, two schools, and Loyola Law School. Founded
in 1911, LMU is ranked third in “Best Regional Universities/West” by U.S. News & World
Report. LMU is the largest Jesuit Catholic university for undergraduates on the West
Coast with more than 6,000 undergraduate students and more than 3,000 graduate
and law students. For more LMU news and events, please visit www.lmu.edu/news.
Berto Solis is a research associate at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles. Solis manages
visual and editorial unity across the Center’s print, web, and audio visual materials. He also serves
as the Center’s special events coordinator, promoting, planning, and executing Center activities
including lectures, forums, and conferences. He mentors undergraduate students on research
design and presentation skills during large scale academic projects run by the Center. Solis
received his B.A. in Spanish from UC Santa Barbara.
Maia Krause is a research associate at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles. She
assists with various phases of research including survey development, implementation, and
dissemination. Prior to joining the Center she completed her Ph.D. in English at UC Irvine. At
UCI, she worked at the UC Humanities Research Institute, where she provided administrative
and research support to initiatives in the humanities and social sciences. Krause earned her
B.A. in English from Stanford University.
4
FORECAST LA | 2015
Fernando J. Guerra, professor of political science and Chicana/o studies, is the founding
Alejandra Alarcon is the research coordinator for the Center for the Study of Los Angeles.
director of the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University. He earned
his doctorate in Political Science from the University of Michigan and his B.A. from the University
of Southern California. Guerra has served on standing commissions, blue ribbon committees,
and ad hoc task forces for the City of Los Angeles, the State of California, and regional bodies in
Southern California. He is a source for the media at the local, national, and international level
and has published in the area of state and local government and urban and ethnic politics.
She serves as the Center’s office manager and scheduler and is the first point of contact for
Center communications. She leads the Center’s undergraduate Student Research Assistants
and mentors them through research projects as they continue to develop their methodological
and technical skills. Her research interests include race-sex-gender studies, contemporary
urban issues and community studies. Alarcon earned her B.A. in Chicana/o Studies from
Loyola Marymount University.
Brianne Gilbert is the associate director for the Center for the Study of Los Angeles and
an adjunct faculty member in political science and urban studies at Loyola Marymount
University. She has worked on dozens of studies involving voter polls, public opinion
research, and leaders/elite surveys and has served as a consultant in the fields of sociology,
anthropology, GIS (geographic information systems), education, public opinion research,
international affairs, geology, and medicine. She also is the author of Statistics in the
Social Sciences: Inferential Statistics as Rhetoric in Sociology. Gilbert received her B.A. from
Wittenberg University and her M.A. from Florida International University.
Brianda Alvarez is a Graduate Student Assistant at the Center for the Study of Los Angeles.
She provides administrative support for daily operations, assists Center staff with various
research projects, and works closely with the Center’s undergraduate Student Research
Assistants. Alvarez is currently a graduate student in the Counseling program at LMU and is
pursuing a career in K-12 School Counseling. Her previous work experience includes working for
the Ethnic Resource Centers at UC Santa Cruz and serving as a Program Manager for SACNAS,
a national STEM organization dedicated to fostering the success of Hispanic/Chicano and
Native American scientists in college and beyond.
2015 | FORECAST LA
5
SU M M A RY
Summary
Over the past year, Angelenos have become more optimistic. They have an
increased sense of financial stability and job security, and continue to be highly
satisfied with their quality of life. Across the board, Angelenos see the region,
their cities, and their neighborhoods as going in the right direction. They
recommend Los Angeles as a good place to live.
Moving from region to city to neighborhood,
Angelenos become more optimistic. They expect
their incomes and finances to improve or remain
the same, and they expect unemployment to
decrease. Levels of overall satisfaction have improved
compared to last year. Angelenos overwhelmingly
think their neighborhoods are headed in the right
direction and feel safe. Given their vantage point and
ability to effect change, leaders continue to register
this optimism at a higher level than residents.
Challenges remain. The optimism of Angelenos
does not mean they are unaware of problems, both
regional and national. Even while Angelenos feel
more secure, the economy and job creation remain a
top concern. Angelenos recognize a growing disparity
between rich and poor, and they are concerned
about the affordability of homes in the region. There
are still significant economic disparities amongst
different ethnic groups, and while education can be
an equalizer, educational attainment is not balanced
among Angelenos. Still, residents are proud of the
diversity of the region, and many cite acceptance
of different types of people as a central element of
Angeleno identity.
sufficiently prepared for a major earthquake, and that
measures taken in response to the drought have not
been enough.
Some elements of dissatisfaction relate to issues that
tangibly can be addressed by civic and corporate
action: bad traffic, unavailability of quality housing,
and a lack of job opportunities. These issues have
actionable solutions. Public transportation, for
example, ranks surprisingly high on satisfaction among
civic issues. Angelenos have turned a corner in their
views on the potential of public transportation, a
notion that seemed impossible only a few years ago.
People are most likely to effect positive change when
they are optimistic about the opportunities before
them. As such, invested and empowered people
are the greatest assets a community can have. Los
Angeles can move forward best when its residents
and leaders understand the various opportunities
and challenges the region has to offer. Forecast LA
aims to facilitate this process.
As the economy has stabilized, other concerns have
emerged. Angelenos and their leaders agree that
more attention needs to be focused on the potential
impact of natural disasters. While the fear of another
international economic meltdown is still predominant
in the anxieties of the county’s leaders, both leaders
and residents are concerned that the area may not be
6
FORECAST LA | 2015
2015 | FORECAST LA
7
M E T H O D O LO GY
Methodology
As part of Forecast LA’s unique approach to forecasting in the Los Angeles region, the
Center for the Study of Los Angeles conducted two outlook surveys. The Leaders Outlook
Survey involved face-to-face interviews with Los Angeles County City Managers who
discussed their priorities for their cities, how their municipalities will fare economically
in the short and long term, and other public policy issues. The Public Outlook Survey
involved 20-minute telephone sessions with 2,400 adults living in Los Angeles County.
Survey respondents were asked about quality-of-life concerns, personal economic wellbeing, homeownership patterns, overall life satisfaction, and various civic issues.
Leaders Outlook Survey
Public Outlook Survey
SAMPLING
The universe for the Leaders Outlook Survey was
the 88 sitting city managers of Los Angeles County.
In order to not exclude any cities we included interim
and acting city managers. The survey was completed
by 57 of the 88 city managers, including the city
managers of the top ten most populous cities in
the county.
SAMPLING
Since the primary purpose of this study was to gather
representative input from adult residents within the
Los Angeles region, a random digit dial (RDD) sample
was employed. The RDD sample was drawn by
determining the active phone exchanges (the first
three numbers of a seven-digit phone number) and
blocks with a given sampling area (in this case, by
the zip codes that comprise the county). A random
list of all active residential and cell phone numbers
in the area was produced. This method included
both listed and unlisted phone numbers.
DATA COLLECTION
In an initial letter sent to each of the 88 city
managers, the Center for the Study of Los Angeles
explained the purpose of the survey and requested
their participation in a face-to-face interview with
a researcher from the Center. Researchers followed
up with email and phone requests. Interviews were
conducted over a four and a half month period
from October 2014 to February 2015. City managers
were interviewed in meeting rooms or offices at their
respective City Halls. Interviews took about
45 minutes to complete.
The subject consent form took approximately five
minutes to read and sign, including time for any
questions from the city manager for the researcher
about the survey or the consent process. At any
point the city manager was allowed to opt out of
the survey. In addition, city managers were informed
that there were minimal risks associated with this
study, that no penalties existed if he or she chose
not to participate, and that no individual responses
would be reported without his or her explicit consent
after the interview process.
PLEASE NOTE:
All numbers represent
percentages, unless
otherwise indicated.
Due to rounding, not
all rows or columns
total 100%.
The margin of error is ±3.0% for the entire sample
of 2,400 residents.
SCREENERS
The protocol for this study involves asking potential
respondents a series of questions, referred to as
screeners, which were used to ensure that the person
lived within the county and were at least 18 years old.
The sample size was 1,200 residents from the city of
Los Angeles and 1,200 residents from Los Angeles
County who live outside the city of LA. The first quota
was a random digit dialing of approximately 600
subjects. Upon completion of each wave, the remaining
necessary quotas were determined, and the following
approximate racial/ethnicity quotas were employed in
each sample: the second quota obtained 90 Caucasian,
non-Hispanic responses; in the third quota, 240 African
American responses; and for the fourth quota, 195
Korean and Chinese responses; and the fifth and final
quota, 75 Filipino responses. Given the demographic
proportion of Latinos in the region, Latinos were
expected to naturally fall out from the initial wave of
600 subjects. If this natural fall out did not occur, an
additional wave was added.
DATA COLLECTION
Telephone interviews were conducted the first four
full weeks in January 2015 between the hours of
4:30pm and 9pm during the week, 10am to 4pm on
Saturday, and 10am to 5pm on Sunday. The survey
was translated into Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean.
Translators who spoke Spanish, Mandarin, and Korean
were available to conduct interviews for residents
who only spoke, or were more comfortable speaking
any of those languages.
8
FORECAST LA | 2015
2015 | FORECAST LA
9
CHAPTER 1
DEMOGRAPHICS
DEMOGRAPHICS: RESIDENTS
DEMOGRAPHICS: RESIDENTS
Demographics: Residents / 18 and Older
GENDER
UNION MEMBERSHIP
Male49%
Female51%
No one in my household belongs to a union
I or someone in my household belongs to a union
79%
21%
RACE/ETHNICITY
Latino44%
White30%
African American
8%
Asian American
15%
Other ethnicity
2%
18-2924%
30-4428%
45-64 32%
65 & over
15%
EDUCATION
Under $40K
46%
$40K–69,99923%
$70K–99,99914%
$100K–149,9999%
$150K or more
9%
MARITAL STATUS
17%
45%
28%
10%
Single32%
Married/Domestic partnership
53%
Divorced/Separated/Widowed15%
BIRTH COUNTRY
EMPLOYMENT
Employed full-time
Employed part-time
Student
Homemaker
Retired
Unemployed
Liberal42%
Moderate27%
Conservative31%
HOUSEHOLD INCOME
AGE
Less than high school
High/tech school graduate
College graduate
Graduate degree
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
43%
13%
9%
8%
18%
9%
U.S.-born57%
Foreign-born43%
YEARS LIVED IN LOS ANGELES
5 years or less 6-15 years
16-25 years
26 or more years
6%
18%
27%
49%
Residents surveyed (2,400)
12
FORECAST LA | 2015
2015 | FORECAST LA 13
DEMOGRAPHICS: LEADERS
GREG RAMIREZ, Agoura Hills
DOMINIC LAZZARETTO, Arcadia
WILLIAM RAWLINGS, Artesia
BEN HARVEY, Avalon
DEMOGRAPHICS: LEADERS
The 57 City Managers interviewed as part of
the Leaders Outlook Survey represent 86%
of the LA County residents who live in cities.
DON PENMAN, Azusa
Demographics: Leaders
PAT WEST, Long Beach
MIGUEL SANTANA, Los Angeles
GENDER
NATIVITY
J. ARNOLDO BELTRAN, Lynwood
Male95%
Female5%
U.S.-born94%
Foreign-born6%
JIM THORSEN, Malibu
RACE/ETHNICITY
MARITAL STATUS
PAUL TALBOT, Monterey Park
Latino24%
White70%
African American
2%
Asian American
2%
Other ethnicity
2%
Single4%
Married90%
Separated/Divorced4%
Domestic Partnership
2%
MIKE EGAN, Norwalk
DOUG WILLMORE, Bell
JEFF KOLIN, Beverly Hills
MARK SCOTT, Burbank
TONY COROALLES, Calabasas
NELSON HERNANDEZ, Carson
TONY RAMOS, Claremont
Multiple responses allowed.
JORGE RIFA, Commerce
DARYL PARRISH, Covina
JOHN NACHBAR, Culver City
18-290%
30-4412%
45-64 74%
65 & over
14%
GILBERT LIVAS, Downey
DARRELL GEORGE, Duarte
RAUL GODINEZ II, El Monte
EDUCATION
SCOTT OCHOA, Glendale
College degree
Graduate degree
CHRIS JEFFERS, Glendora
TOM BAKALY, Hermosa Beach
ARTIE FIELDS, Inglewood
JOHN DAVIDSON, Irwindale
SHAUNA CLARK,
La Habra Heights
15%
85%
FORECAST LA | 2015
RAYMOND CRUZ, Rolling Hills
BLAINE MICHAELIS, San Dimas
BRIAN SAEKI, San Fernando
STEVEN PRESTON, San Gabriel
JOHN SCHAEFER, San Marino
City with City Manager interviewed (57)
City with City Manager not interviewed (31)
KENNETH FARFSING, Signal Hill
ANTHONY YBARRA,
South El Monte
MICHAEL FLAD, South Gate
Democrat 45%
Republican30%
Declined to state
23%
Other2%
SERGIO GONZALEZ,
South Pasadena
POLITICAL IDEOLOGY
BOB RUSSI, La Verne
14
13%
6%
10%
71%
POLITICAL PARTY
JEFF BOYNTON, La Mirada
MICHAEL ROCK, Lomita
RENÉ BOBADILLA, Pico Rivera
RON GOULD, Santa Monica
MICHAEL GOODSON, Hawthorne
STEVE MANDOKI, Lawndale
MICHAEL BECK, Pasadena
KEN STRIPLIN, Santa Clarita
GREG CARPENTER, El Segundo
MARK BOZIGIAN, Lancaster
0–5 years 6-15 years
16-25 years
26 years or more
DAVE CHILDS, Palmdale
LINDA LOWRY, Pomona
YEARS LIVED IN LOS ANGELES
AGE
FRANCESCA TUCKER-SCHUYLER,
Montebello
Liberal34%
Moderate47%
Conservative19%
BRYAN COOK, Temple City
LEROY JACKSON, Torrance
THOMAS MAUK, West Covina
RAYMOND TAYLOR,
Westlake Village
JEFFREY COLLIER, Whittier
2015 | FORECAST LA 15
CHAPTER 2
OUTLOOK
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
How do you think things are going in the Los Angeles region/
your city/your neighborhood—
LA REGION
In the right direction or the wrong direction?
RESIDENTS
LEADERS
RIGHT DIRECTION
RIGHT DIRECTION
AFRICAN
AMERICAN
2014
ASIAN
AMERICAN
2014
WRONG DIRECTION
Los Angeles region:
69%
31%
Your city:
75%
25%
Your neighborhood:
80%
20%
Los Angeles region:
94%
6%
WHITE
LATINO
CITY
Angelenos are more optimistic about the direction of the LA region, their
city, and their neighborhood.
LA region
Asian Americans and Latinos continue to be the most
optimistic Angelenos. Nevertheless, ALL Angelenos
are more optimistic in 2015 than in 2014 in regards
to the direction of the region, their cities, and
their neighborhoods. The largest gains in optimism
between 2014 and 2015 were among Latinos and
African Americans.
FORECAST LA | 2015
69%
31%
2015
2014
79%
54%
21%
45%
2015
61%
38%
2014
61%
39%
73%
2015
27%
WRONG DIRECTION
63%
37%
2014
82%
18%
2015
82%
17%
2015
2014
2015
2014
30%
70%
30%
70%
29%
71%
31%
69%
2015
23%
77%
Neighborhood
RIGHT DIRECTION
AFRICAN
AMERICAN
2014
ASIAN
AMERICAN
2014
WHITE
LATINO
18
38%
ASIAN
AMERICAN
NEIGHBORHOOD
RESIDENTS
BY RACE/ETHNICITY
62%
2014
More optimistic
City
2015
44%
AFRICAN
AMERICAN
LATINO
Optimistic
56%
RIGHT DIRECTION
WHITE
In addition, Angelenos continue to be increasingly optimistic as the
immediacy of the connection approaches them. In other words:
WRONG DIRECTION
2015
WRONG DIRECTION
32%
68%
73%
27%
16%
84%
2015
14%
86%
2014
80%
20%
2015
80%
20%
2014
2015
69%
31%
78%
22%
2015 | FORECAST LA 19
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
By the end of the year, do you expect the
financial situation in your household to improve,
stay the same, or worsen?
IMPROVE
Do you believe the following will increase, stay about the same,
or decrease by the end of the year?
UNEMPLOYMENT
OVERALL
STAY THE SAME
More than two thirds of Angelenos expect unemployment to decrease or stay
the same by the end of 2015. Unemployment expectations resemble last year:
cautious optimism.
INCREASE
TOTALS
45%
UNEMPLOYMENT
BY RACE/ETHNICITY
6%
Angelenos generally feel secure in their financial situation. About half of
all LA residents (over 49%) felt their finances would improve by the end
of the year both in 2014 and in 2015. Moreover, in both years over 40% of
Angelenos felt their finances were stable and would remain the same by
the end of the year.
Among ethnic groups, Asian American and white Angelenos were most
concerned about their financial situations, but neither group had a
proportion larger than 10% expecting household finances to worsen by
the end of 2015. Asian Americans, the group with the highest percentage
who feared their finances would worsen in 2014, demonstrate a greater
sense of financial security in 2015.
IMPROVE
STAY THE SAME
WORSEN
WORSENING FINANCES
OVERALL 2014 & 2015
2014
7%
2015
6%
WORSENING
FINANCES BY
RACE/ETHNICITY
2014 & 2015
2014
6%
2015
4%
2014
12%
2015
8%
2014
6%
2015
7%
2014
6%
2015
4%
20 FORECAST LA | 2015
DECREASE
31%
35%
35%
2015
30%
34%
36%
Latinos again most closely mirror the overall opinion of unemployment.
WORSEN
50%
STAY ABOUT THE SAME
2014
OVERALL
INCREASE
2014
2015
ASIAN
AMERICAN
2015
32%
2014
32%
LATINO
2014
2015
2014
2015
WHITE
33%
DECREASE
29%
35%
28%
39%
27%
42%
27%
31%
35%
33%
32%
35%
36%
29%
31%
37%
35%
35%
34%
35%
With most of Obamacare’s major provisions having been phased in as of
January 2014, Angelenos have a solid year of experience with the new
health care system. Almost two thirds of Angelenos continue to expect their
healthcare costs to increase by the end of 2015, a zero net change from 2014.
Fewer Angelenos expect their healthcare costs to decrease by the end of
2015 relative to last year. Angelenos are getting used to a new financial
reality: a quarter of them expect their health care costs to remain the same.
AFRICAN
AMERICAN
ASIAN
AMERICAN
36%
AFRICAN
AMERICAN
WHITE
HEALTHCARE
OVERALL
STAY ABOUT THE SAME
STAY ABOUT
THE SAME
INCREASE
2014
65%
2015
65%
DECREASE
20%
15%
25%
10%
LATINO
2015 | FORECAST LA 21
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
In general, do you believe the national economy will do much
better, somewhat better, somewhat worse, or much worse in
2015 than 2014?
NATIONAL ECONOMY
OVERALL
MUCH BETTER
20%
SOMEWHAT
WORSE
SOMEWHAT BETTER
61%
Do you think the growing economic disparity between the rich and
the poor will increase, stay the same, or decrease in the future?
In 2015, Latinos, the foreign-born, and the least educated expect economic
disparity between the rich and the poor to decrease. Conversely, whites, the
U.S.-born, and those with higher educational attainment expect economic
disparity to increase.
MUCH
WORSE
15%
5%
NATIVITY
Do you believe the Los Angeles’ regional economy will do much
better, somewhat better, somewhat worse, or much worse in
2015 than 2014?
REGIONAL ECONOMY
OVERALL
MUCH BETTER
17%
SOMEWHAT
WORSE
SOMEWHAT BETTER
64%
STAY THE SAME
INCREASE
62%
U.S.-BORN
49%
FOREIGN-BORN
15%
20%
EDUCATION LEVEL
4%
STAY THE SAME
INCREASE
LESS THAN HIGH
SCHOOL GRADUATE
39%
HIGH SCHOOL/TECH
SCHOOL GRADUATE
Do you think the growing economic disparity between the rich and
the poor will increase, stay the same, or decrease in the future?
Most residents expect the economic disparity between the rich and the poor
to grow. In 2015, fewer Angelenos expect the disparity to stay the same; more
residents are either decidedly optimistic that it will decrease or pessimistic
that it will increase.
2014
STAY THE SAME
54%
DECREASE
33%
RACE/ETHNICITY
56%
25%
41%
31%
67%
17%
21%
STAY THE SAME
INCREASE
AFRICAN
AMERICAN
58%
ASIAN
AMERICAN
68%
25%
6%
DECREASE
13%
29%
63%
45%
12%
21%
73%
WHITE
13%
DECREASE
52%
GRADUATE DEGREE
LATINO
2015
9%
31%
19%
COLLEGE GRADUATE
INCREASE
29%
MUCH
WORSE
Angelenos have very similar expectations for both the regional and
national economies.
RESIDENTS
DECREASE
28%
9%
24%
8%
30%
18%
Leaders, to a much greater degree, feel that this difference will continue
to increase.
LEADERS
INCREASE
2014
2015
22 FORECAST LA | 2015
STAY THE SAME
50%
DECREASE
48%
63%
2%
33% 4%
2015 | FORECAST LA 23
CHAPTER 3
CIVIC & ECONOMIC
REALITIES
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
Do you plan to purchase a home in the next year?
Most Angelenos are not planning to purchase a home in the next year.
Cost and the inability to obtain financing were important factors in
this decision.
YES
NO
18%
82%
Do you think the majority of residents in your city can afford
to buy a home?
Angelenos overwhelmingly believe that most residents cannot afford
a home in their city. Respondents are slightly more optimistic in 2015 than
in 2014, but not by much.
RESIDENTS
Do you believe housing prices will increase, stay about the same,
or decrease by the end of the year?
YES
NO
2014
17%
83%
2015
20%
Leaders display a greater degree of optimism, both in 2014 and 2015. Mayors
provided leaders’ opinions in 2014 and City Managers provided them in 2015.
In 2014 and 2015, most Angelenos did not expect housing prices to decrease.
FOR RESIDENTS
2014 AND 2015
STAY ABOUT
THE SAME
INCREASE
2014
69%
2015
70%
22%
9%
8%
Have you seriously considered buying a home in the past,
but chose not to do so?
An important component of the American Dream is owning a home.
Compared to U.S.-born Angelenos, foreign-born Angelenos were most
likely to have considered purchasing a home in the past but then
chosen not to.
OVERALL
BY NATIVITY
YES
NO
37%
63%
YES
NO
U.S.-BORN
32%
68%
FOREIGNBORN
43%
26 FORECAST LA | 2015
This level of inflation may be explained by the leaders’ higher income levels
and levels of education relative to the residents. In addition, their positions
in the power structure of the city may bias them against making a negative
assessment of their residents’ finances.
DECREASE
22%
80%
LEADERS
YES
NO
2014
38%
62%
2015
32%
68%
RESIDENTS BY LOCATION Residents living in the City of LA are more pessimistic about home affordability
relative to LA County residents outside of the City of LA.
IN LA COUNTY IN 2015
YES
NO
CITY OF LA
RESIDENTS ONLY
15%
85%
LA COUNTY RESIDENTS
EXCLUDING CITY OF LA
24%
76%
57%
2015 | FORECAST LA 27
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
Excluding education, which one local issue is most important
to you?
Education: The Great Equalizer?
Education seems to serve as a great equalizer. Homeownership and stability
at work directly correlate with higher educational attainment.
When given a battery of local issues other than education, Angelenos
ranked them in the following order:
THE ECONOMY AND JOB CREATION 23%
RENT OR OWN HOME BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
RENT HOME
OWN HOME
70%
LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL
HIGH SCHOOL
54%
COLLEGE
34%
GRADUATE
31%
CRIME/PUBLIC SAFETY 14% AFFORDABLE HOUSING 13%
30%
46%
FIGHTING POVERTY 10%
66%
TAXES AND SPENDING 6%
69%
YES
HIGH SCHOOL
22%
COLLEGE
16%
GRADUATE
9%
69%
78%
84%
HIGH SCHOOL
17%
GRADUATE
COLLEGE
45%
28%
10%
Unfortunately, inequities remain among different ethnic groups and their levels
of educational attainment, especially between Latino and white Angelenos.
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BY RACE/ETHNICITY
LESS THAN
HIGH SCHOOL
HIGH SCHOOL
28 FORECAST LA | 2015
COLLEGE
8%
54%
10%
39%
WHITE 2%
LATINO
YES
SOMEWHAT
NO
32%
32%
35%
Do you feel Los Angeles is prepared enough for future
drought conditions?
LESS THAN
HIGH SCHOOL
ASIAN AMERICAN
E A RT H Q UA K E / D I S A S T E R P R E PA R E D N E S S 4%
91%
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OVERALL
AFRICAN AMERICAN
BUI L D I N G A N D I M PROVI N G I N F R A S T RUC T UR E 5%
Do you consider you and your family earthquake prepared?
NO
31%
GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY 6%
CONDITION OF STREETS AND SIDEWALKS 4%
EXPECTATION OF WORK HOURS CUT BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
LESS THAN HIGH SCHOOL
FIGHTING HOMELESSNESS 8% INCREASING MINIMUM WAGE 7%
35%
31%
YES
SOMEWHAT
NO
15%
27%
59%
Angelenos show concern regarding natural disasters. They are ambivalent
about their individual earthquake preparedness and strongly feel the region
is not prepared for future drought conditions.
GRADUATE
29%
9%
42%
9%
41%
22%
53%
14%
2%
2015 | FORECAST LA 29
CHAPTER 4
CULTURAL IDENTITY
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
Do you consider yourself to be an Angeleno?
Do you consider yourself to be an Angeleno?
Looking through the lens of ethnicity and nativity, foreign-born ethnic residents
are the most likely to identify as Angeleno.
Most residents and leaders identify as Angeleno, though Latinos, Asians,
and the foreign-born are the most likely to identify as such.
OVERALL
PUBLIC:
77%
yes
BY NATIVITY
LEADERS:
62%
yes
23%
38%
no
no
57%
U.S.-born
43%
foreign-
yes =
71%
85%
U.S.-BORN
FOREIGN-BORN
born
yes =
BY RACE/ETHNICITY AND NATIVITY
BY RACE/ETHNICITY
yes =
84%
77%
U.S.-BORN
89%
FOREIGN-BORN
LATINO
LATINO
80%
85%
U.S.-BORN
FOREIGN-BORN
70%
73%
U.S.-BORN
FOREIGN-BORN
66%
66%
U.S.-BORN
FOREIGN-BORN
84%
ASIAN AMERICAN
ASIAN AMERICAN
70%
AFRICAN AMERICAN
65%
WHITE
32 FORECAST LA | 2015
AFRICAN AMERICAN
WHITE
2015 | FORECAST LA 33
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
Excluding your residence in the Los Angeles region, what other
qualities define what it means to be an Angeleno?
Which side of the ideological spectrum do you most
closely identify with?
Regarding various national wedge issues, Los Angeles is liberal.
SUPPORT FEMINISM
OPPOSE
FEMINISM
82%
18%
SUPPORT IMMIGRATION
OPPOSE
IMMIGRATION
82%
18%
STAY THE SAME OR INCREASE
DECREASE
82%
18%
Feminism
Immigration
Economic disparity
Minimum wage increase
Gun control
License for undocumented
Obamacare
Climate change
Gay marriage
YES
NO
81%
19%
MORE GUN CONTROL
LESS GUN CONTROL
76%
24%
SUPPORT LICENSES
OPPOSE LICENSES
73%
27%
SUPPORT OBAMACARE
OPPOSE OBAMACARE
71%
29%
CAUSED BY HUMANS
CAUSED NATURALLY
SUPPORT GAY MARRIAGE
OPPOSE GAY MARRIAGE
68%
65%
PRO-CHOICE
Right to an abortion
34 FORECAST LA | 2015
59%
32%
35%
PRO-LIFE
41%
This is a curated selection of open-ended responses for this question from LA residents.
FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION, BEING CULTURAL * LIVING IN LA * SPEAKS MEXICAN * LIVING IN LA ALL YOUR LIFE * MELTING POT,
ETHNICITIES * LIBERAL MINDED, FORWARD THINKING, ACHIEVEMENT ORIENTED * I WAS BORN AND RAISED IN INGLEWOOD, CA *
JUST MEANS BEING BORN AND RAISED IN LA * I THINK IT’S REPRESENTATIVE OF WHAT AMERICA IS: THE CULTURE, THE BELIEFS, IT’S
A MICROCOSM OF THE UNITED STATES * I LOVE CULTURE MURALS * FREE SPIRITED, OUTDOORSY * HISPANIC AMERICAN OR MEXICAN
* BORN IN LOS ANGELES * I THINK THE FACT THAT WE HAVE GOOD WEATHER AND THE BEACHES THE ENTERTAINMENT WORLD * THE
INDIVIDUALISM, THE PRIDE, GREAT FOOD * MORE PRIVILEGES THAN ANYONE ELSE * WE ARE ALL EQUAL NO MATTER WHAT * I LIKE
LIVING IN LA, BEEN HERE 20 YEARS * I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IT MEANS * BE SUPERFICIAL, LAID BACK, A LITTLE SELFISH, A LITTLE
DUMB * TO BE TOLERANT OF DIVERSE GROUPS * INDIFFERENT, NOISY * UNITY IN LOS ANGELES * HARD TO ANSWER * DIVERSITY
* SOMEBODY WHO ENJOYS GOOD WEATHER, THE SUN, PARKS, SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS * LIVING IN LA IS VERY HECTIC, AIR
QUALITY IS NOT GOOD AND TOO MUCH TRAFFIC * BEING PRACTICALLY RAISED HERE, I HAVE FAMILY HERE, GRANDKIDS, THREE
GENERATIONS OF FAMILY HERE * BEING ACCEPTING OF OTHERS * THE WEATHER, MORE ATTRACTIONS TO OFFER THAN MOST CITIES
* CONVENIENT TO LIVE AND NICE CLIMATE * LONG TERM RESIDENCY * LIVING IN LOS ANGELES * COMMUNITY * BEING LATINO
* I’M A 4TH GENERATION ANGELENO AND I BLEED DODGER BLUE * SENSE OF COMMUNITY, LIBERAL POLICIES, SENSE OF THE
HISTORY, LIFESTYLE * LIVED IN LOS ANGELES FOR 45 YEARS * ANGELENOS ARE FROM DIFFERENT COUNTRIES FROM AROUND THE
WORLD * NICE WEATHER, GOVERNMENT BENEFITS, SOCIAL SECURITY BENEFITS * DRIVES FAST * LIVING HERE FOR A PERIOD OF
TIME * LIVING HERE A LONG TIME * TO HAVE GOOD WEATHER AND HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO GO OUT AND DO SOME HUSTLING,
ITS WARM ENOUGH TO DO WHAT YOU CAN DO * CASUAL, FREESTYLE * THE WEATHER AND THE EASE OF TRANSPORTATION AND
NICENESS OF PEOPLE * I REALLY DON’T HAVE AN ANSWER * YOU CAN DO WHATEVER YOU WANT TO DO HERE * ADAPTABLE * BEST
WEATHER * SOMEBODY WHO LIVES HERE AND CONSIDERS LOS ANGELES HIS OR HER HOME AND WANTS THE BEST FOR THE CITY
* I TAKE PRIDE IN THE CITY * ACCESS TO EVERYTHING, LIKE ENTERTAINMENT AND HISTORY * SOMEONE WHO LIVES IN THE LA
BASIN * VARIOUS RACES * MORE AWARE MORE PROGRESSIVE ABOUT WHAT GOES ON IN SOCIETY, MANY DIFFERENT CULTURES * I
DON’T KNOW, I LIKE THE WEATHER * CUTTING-EDGE * BILINGUAL AND SUN TANNED * SUNSHINE AND BEACHES * THE WEATHER,
BEACHES * BEACHES, WEATHER, TRAFFIC * GOING HARD OR GOING HOME * BORN IN HAWTHORNE IN 1935 BORN AND RAISED *
ANGELENOS ARE MORE LIBERAL AND HAVE DIFFERENT ETHNIC BACKGROUNDS * I THINK ITS MUCH MORE SYNONYMOUS WITH
BEING HISPANIC * A LOT OF HEART, A LOT OF CARING; FROM THE POOREST TO THE RICHEST THEY WILL LOOK OUT FOR PEOPLE
IN NEED * THE LIFESTYLE IS LOOSE, IT’S NICE, AND WAGES BARELY REASONABLE * LIFESTYLE * EVERYTHING * LIVING IN LOS
ANGELES FOR 47 YEARS * HOPE FOR SUCCESS FOR THE CITY * A HAPPY PERSON * BORN IN LA * BEING ON THE WEST COAST * TIENE
EL MEJOR CLIMA Y ES LA MEJOR CIUDAD * YOU GOTTA BE RICH AND HAVE A GOOD JOB AND BE EDUCATED * BEING OPEN TO NEW
THINGS AND IDEAS * SER BILINGÜE/TO BE BILINGUAL * ANGELENOS ARE MORE LIBERAL * ANGELENOS ARE MORE SERIOUS THAN
THE PEOPLE FROM OTHER STATES, NOT EASY TO DEAL WITH * MULTICULTURAL, DIFFERENT ETHNIC PEOPLE CAN LIVE TOGETHER
PEACEFULLY * NICE WEATHER, AFFORDABLE PLACE TO LIVE FOR ELDERLY PEOPLE LIKE ME * FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION, INTEREST
IN ENVIRONMENTALISM * ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND ENTERTAINMENT * YOU HAVE TO BE NUTS * YOU HAVE SEEN THE UPS AND DOWNS
IN THE ECONOMY SINCE YOU WERE A CHILD, YOU HAVE SEEN THE GOOD TIMES AND BAD TIMES * I CANNOT DEFINE ANGELENOS,
THEY’RE JUST NORMAL PEOPLE AND MAKE NO DIFFERENCE * LIVE IN LA FOR MOST OF YOUR LIFE * CAPABLE * HELPING THE LESS
FORTUNATE, HELPING THE COMMUNITY * DON’T REALLY KNOW * KNOWING THE CULTURES, KNOWING REGIONS AND AREAS, EACH
AREA OFFERS DIFFERENT THINGS * A MELTING POT * LIVING HERE FOR A LONG TIME AND SEEING MY KIDS BORN HERE MAKES ME
FEEL THAT I’M A PART OF THE CITY * TO LIVE COMFORTABLY, HAVE ENOUGH MONEY, BE SELF-SUFFICIENT * LOVE OF LOS ANGELES,
LOVE OF CULTURES, DIVERSITY, GOOD FOOD, TOLERANCE * THE COMMUNITY * KNOWLEDGEABLE, RUDE * I WAS BORN HERE * IT’S
A MINDSET, WE RECOGNIZE EACH OTHER * HAVING A BUSINESS AND PROVIDING JOBS FOR PEOPLE IN AND AROUND LOS ANGELES
COUNTY, PAYING TAXES, HAVING PROPERTY, OWNING A HOME * I DON’T EVEN KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS, IS IT AN ETHNICITY? *
NICE WEATHER, MOUNTAINS AND SEAS ARE CLOSE BY * SOMEONE WHO LOVES LA AND BELIEVES LA IS A GOOD PLACE, A DIVERSE
PLACE, AND A MORE TOLERANT PLACE THAN THE REST OF AMERICA * LIVED IN SANTA MONICA * TO SPEAK SPANISH * WE’RE ALL
A BUNCH OF ACTORS, I GUESS * PRIDE, HONOR, I HAVE LIVED HERE ALL OF MY LIFE * KNOWING YOUR WAY TO THROUGH LOS
ANGELES AND LANDMARKS * LONG TERM RESIDENCY IN LOS ANGELES * BORN HERE * LIVING IN LOS ANGELES IS VERY HECTIC *
DON’T KNOW WHAT IT MEANS * OPENNESS * SOMEONE WHO HAS BEEN HERE A WHILE AND UNDERSTANDS THE REGION * FREEDOM
TO CHOOSE, NOT BEING FORCED TO CHOOSE OBAMA CARE * WORKING LIVING HERE FOR A LONG TIME * AN ANGELENO MUST BE
A SPANISH PERSON * SOMEONE WHO HAS LIVED HERE A LONG TIME, MUCH OF THEIR LIVES * TO BE IN TRAFFIC * LAKERS AND
DODGERS, WE GO FOR SPORTS * PROUD OF THE CULTURE, PROUD OF BEING PART OF THIS GROWING CITY * MULTI-ETHNIC GROUPS
LIVING TOGETHER, I LIKE MANY KOREAN PEOPLES LIVING TOGETHER * THE CLIMATE * FREEDOM FOR A BLACK MAN TO BE ABLE TO
GO JOGGING OR WALK DOWN THE STREET * NOTHING AT ALL * FREE SPIRIT, DIVERSITY OF CULTURAL BACKGROUND, CONVENIENT
LOCATION TO HOLLYWOOD, ACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT BUSINESS AS WELL * LOS ANGELES IS A MULTICULTURAL REGION, YOU CAN
MEET PEOPLE OF MANY DIFFERENT CULTURAL AND ETHNIC BACKGROUNDS FROM ALL AROUND THE WORLD IN LOS ANGELES *
SOMEONE WHO HAS LIVED HERE FOR QUITE AWHILE * BORN AND RAISED * IT’S NOT JUST LIVING IN LOS ANGELES BUT BEING
A GOOD CITIZEN OF LOS ANGELES, HELPING OTHERS * DON’T HAVE A CLUE, HAD NEVER EVEN HEARD OF WHAT AN ANGELENO
IS * FREE, SOMEWHAT INSECURE * DIVERSITY AND FLEXIBILITY * HISPANICS ARE ANGELENOS * SOMETHING ABOUT LOVE OF THE
CITY AND WANTING TO SEE IT PROSPER * LIVING IN THE AREA * THE WEATHER AND OPPORTUNITIES HERE * NICE WEATHER, LOTS
OF JOBS AVAILABLE * IT’S THE LOCATION * GOOD WEATHER * MY FAVORITE SPORTS TEAM, THE DODGERS, IS IN LA * LAID BACK
* CASUAL, MIND THEIR OWN BUSINESS * I FEEL COMFORTABLE HERE * NOT BEING A DRAIN ON THE CITY * THE CULTURE * BORN
BRED AND EDUCATED IN LA * BEING TOLERANT * LOWRIDERS AND WEED * DO NOT KNOW * HAVING AT LEAST ONE CAR IN THE
DRIVEWAY, DRIVING MORE THAN 10 MILES TO WORK, LIVING IN THE SUBURBS, PRIVATE SCHOOLS AND A LOT OF PEOPLE LIVING
IN DEBT * IT MEANS TO BE LOYAL TO THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND THE CULTURE AND ENTERTAINMENT * MULTICULTURAL *
CHAPTER 5
LEVELS OF
SATISFACTION
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
If someone was interested in moving to where you live, would
you recommend it?
Angelenos overwhelmingly recommend the places where they live, including
the 88 cities and the various unincorporated areas in LA County.
83%
17%
yes
no
Overall how satisfied would you say you are with the quality of
the services that your city or county provide?
Angelenos are also generally satisfied by the services their city or
county provide.
VERY SATISFIED
16%
NEITHER SATISFIED
NOR UNSATISFIED
SATISFIED
52%
VERY
UNSATISFIED UNSATISFIED
21%
9% 3%
Do you feel that your local government is open and transparent
about its operations?
35%
yes
38 FORECAST LA | 2015
31%
somewhat
35%
no
The following is a list of characteristics as they relate to your city
overall. For each item, how would you rate the characteristics as a
whole using the scale good, fair, or poor?
Responses are organized in order of highest “good” rating to lowest
“good” rating.
GOODFAIR POOR
Quality amenities and services
(e.g., restaurants, post office, etc.)
61336
Cultural or recreational opportunities
503911
Overall quality of life
48448
Public transportation
4835 17
Quality of K-12 education
453421
Walkability
4437 19
Appearance of your city/county
444413
Integration of different groups of
people (cultural, racial, economic)
434314
Mental health and physical
fitness resources
433622
Sense of community
4241 17
Environmental quality
and sustainability
384220
Access to affordable health care
36 4420
Crime and safety
354124
Disaster preparedness
324522
Traffic or mobility
3037 33
Desirable employment opportunities
22 5028
Access to affordable quality housing
21 4237
Homelessness
193249
2015 | FORECAST LA 39
S U R V E Y R E S U LT S
If someone was interested in moving to your neighborhood, would
you recommend it for the following aspects, yes or no?
3rd Annual
Angelenos continue to show their love for the region by overwhelmingly
endorsing LA as a safe place to live, work, raise children, and retire.
As a place to live overall
yes
no
86%
PUBLIC
98%
LEADERS
As a safe place to live
86%
PUBLIC
98%
LEADERS
Spring 2016
As a place to work
PUBLIC
64%
85%
LEADERS
As a place to raise children
PUBLIC
67%
98%
LEADERS
As a place to retire
PUBLIC
LEADERS
80%
83%
For its overall quality of life
PUBLIC
LEADERS
40 FORECAST LA | 2015
84%
94%
See you then!
CENTER ACTIVITIES
CENTER FOR THE STUDY
OF LOS ANGELES’
DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL
MR. STEVE SOBOROFF
Chairman, Center for the Study of
Los Angeles Development Council
Managing Partner, Soboroff Partners
MR. RAUL AMEZCUA
Managing Director, Stifel, Nicolaus
& Company, Inc.
Center Activities
MR. ANDY CARRASCO
Director of Regional Public Affairs,
Southern California Gas Company
The Center for the Study of Los Angeles produces a wide variety of scholarly work,
from journal articles, presentations, and studies to commissioned volumes regarding
Los Angeles and its prominent members. In addition to these research projects and as
part of its commitment to education about the region, the Center for the Study of Los
Angeles hosts a diverse range of events, many of which are free and open to the public.
MS. BARBARA CASEY
Founder & CEO, Casey & Sayre
MR. ALEX MARTIN CHAVES
CEO, Parking Company of America
Management
MR. HENRY CISNEROS
Founder & Chairman, CityView
MR. THOMAS FLINTOFT
Founding Principal, Kindel Gagan
CENTER FOR THE
STUDY OF LOS
ANGELES’ STUDENT
RESEARCH ASSISTANTS
ZAYD AL-MARAYATI
Class of 2016
STEPHANIE ANAYA
Class of 2016
COLIN ARNOLD
Class of 2015
ISABEL CASSO
Class of 2015
ELIN HENNINGSSON
Class of 2016
TAYLOR KAY
Class of 2016
BRIANNA MEDINA
Class of 2017
NAREK MKRTOUMIAN
Class of 2015
ALISON SACKERSON
Class of 2015
JOHN SALINAS
Class of 2018
PRISCILLA TORRES
Class of 2017
SUMMER WALL
Class of 2015
STEPHANIE WILLIAMS
Class of 2016
FORECAST LA
Forecast LA is an annual conference that
explores the civic and economic concerns,
cultural identities, and levels of satisfaction
of residents and leaders in the Los Angeles
region. As part of the Center’s unique
approach to forecasting, it conducts two
outlook surveys. The first is a telephone survey
of LA County adult residents in LA County,
who are asked about personal economic wellbeing, overall life satisfaction, and various
civic issues, and face-to-face interviews with
a set of LA County leaders. In the case of 2015,
the second group consists of LA County’s city
managers, who discuss their cities’ priorities,
how their municipalities will fare economically,
and other topical issues. Forecast LA is a
collaboration with one of California’s most
distinguished economic research firms,
Beacon Economics.
voters). Since then the Center has conducted
eight exit polls in the city of Los Angeles and
has produced some of the most accurate exit
polling results in the country. To date, over
1,000 undergraduate researchers at LMU have
collected more than 18,000 surveys.
LA VOTES EXIT POLLS
To address methodological issues surrounding
the discrepancies in 2000 and 2004
Presidential election exit poll results, LMU
researchers developed and implemented an
innovative sampling technique in Los Angeles.
The racially stratified homogenous precinct
approach addressed problems with poor
sampling techniques, inaccurate results,
and skewed reporting of underrepresented
subgroups (e.g., African American and Latino
TOP 100 MOST SIGNIFICANT ELECTED
OFFICEHOLDERS IN LOS ANGELES COUNTY
The Top 100 is a database of the 100 most
powerful elected positions in LA County dating
back to 1960. By recording the name, ethnicity,
gender, and election year of each officeholder,
the Top 100 database reveals the significant
shifts in minority political inclusion over the last
several decades. Ethnicities are coded as white,
Latino, black, Asian American, and Jewish. The
record documents changes in structures such as
LA RIOTS ANNIVERSARY STUDIES
The 1992 LA Riots had a profound impact on
nearly every aspect of Los Angeles, including
government policy, community relations, quality
of life, and demographics. Many wondered how
these Riots would affect future quality of life, and
believed race relations in LA could no longer be
ignored. In observance of each of the 5, 10, 15,
and 20 year anniversaries of the LA Riots, the
Center sponsored cross-sectional phone surveys
of Angelenos to study their attitudes toward Los
Angeles in a longitudinal effort to learn more
about the Riots’ impact.
at-large elections, redistricting, and the creation
of new positions. The result is a powerful
visual tool that tells the story of a changing
political landscape and the future of more
equal representation.
of redistricting, and others. Additionally,
students attend a networking reception, tour
the capitol, and network with colleagues from
other universities to better equip them as
future leaders.
MR. JIM GARRISON
TOP 300 MOST SIGNIFICANT ELECTED
OFFICEHOLDERS IN CALIFORNIA
The Top 300 is an extension of the Top
100. This database includes the state
constitutional officers, Board of Equalization,
U.S. Representatives, the Board of Supervisors
for the ten largest counties, and the city
councilmembers of the top ten most populous
cities in the state. All of these elected officials
are also documented by election year and
coded for race (white, Latino, black, and Asian
American) as well as gender. The Top 300 shows
how power has shifted amongst ethnicities
since 1960 and calls attention to the effects of
redistricting on minority political inclusion.
LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE
The Leadership Initiative is an effort to
promote effective leadership development,
civic engagement, and public policy advocacy
in Los Angeles. The Center is conducting an
integrative study of leaders in ten sectors
including politics, education, arts/culture,
business, community, health, land use/
housing, law, media/entertainment, and
religion/spirituality. Upon completion, the
Center’s Leadership Initiative will have
identified and surveyed 1,000 leaders who
impact public policy. The objective of this
project is to provide data that will encourage
collaborative leadership and accountability for
better community outcomes in Los Angeles.
MS. LISA GRITZNER
SACRAMENTO SEMINAR
The Sacramento Seminar is an annual event
attended by students from colleges and
universities throughout California. Students
spend three days in the state capitol learning
about politics, public policy, and careers in
government service. The core of the Seminar
is a series of panels with elected officials,
lobbyists, chiefs of staff, interns, and Capital
Fellows; topics have included the future of
public policy, the new superminority, the effects
LA/DF: DEVELOPING BINATIONAL
LEADERS
Los Angeles/Mexico City (DF) is cutting edge,
student-focused Los Angeles/Mexico City
partnership and consortium. Developed by
the Center in conjunction with a variety of
companies, institutions, and organizations
that have binational U.S./Mexico operations,
LA/DF focuses on developing a new generation
of international leadership. A group of
President, Pacific Federal Insurance Co.
MR. RUBEN GONZALEZ
Senior Vice President of Public
Policy & Political Affairs, LA Area
Chamber of Commerce
President, Cerrell Associates, Inc.
MR. RANDAL HERNANDEZ
External Affairs Executive, Union Bank
MS. FRAN INMAN
Senior Vice President, Majestic Realty Co.
DR. DAVID O. LEVINE
Chief of Staff to Jerry Epstein,
Spokesperson for ShoresMDR
MR. ALEXANDER MORADI
Managing Partner & Founder, ICO Group
MR. GEORGE L. PLA
President & CEO, Cordoba Corporation
MR. TIMOTHY G. PSOMAS
Chairman, PSOMAS
MR. DAVID ROBERTI, ESQ.
Attorney at David Roberti Law Office
MS. RENATA SIMRIL
Senior Vice President and Chief of Staff
to Publisher and CEO Austin Beutner
MR. MARK SLAVKIN
Director of Education, Wallis Annenberg
Center for the Performing Arts
MR. GADDI VASQUEZ
Senior Vice President of Government
Affairs, Southern California Edison
MR. PETER VILLEGAS
Vice President of Latin Affairs at
The Coca-Cola Company
42 FORECAST LA | 2015
2015 | FORECAST LA
43
Research Collection
PUBLIC OFFICIALS
Bob Beverly Papers
Mayor Richard J. Riordan Administrative Papers
David A. Roberti Papers
Mike Roos Papers
Joel Wachs Papers
Bill Rosendahl-Adelphia Communications Corporation Collection of Public Affairs Television Programs
LOS ANGELES DEVELOPERS
Fritz Burns Papers (2 collections)
Daniel Freeman Family Papers
Documents for the History of the Daniel Freeman Family and the Rancho Centinela
James Keane Collection of Fritz Burns Biographical Materials
Charles Luckman Papers
Jack and Bonita Granville Wrather Papers
Wrather Investment Corporation Incorporation Records
CENTER FOR THE
STUDY OF LOS
ANGELES’ AUXILIARY
PERSONNEL
AFFILIATES
MEGAN BERRY
Director of Development for
Constituent Programs
MASON STOCKSTILL
Associate Director of Media and
Communications Relations
CLAY STALLS
Curator for the Center’s Research
Collections, Archives and Special
Collections Department
SCHOLARS AND
FELLOWS
DAVID AYON
Senior Research Fellow
STEVEN BRADFORD
Senior Research Fellow
MARA A. COHEN-MARKS
Senior Research Fellow
FRANK ROMO
Graduate Research Fellow
MATT BARRETO
Research Scholar
STEPHEN NUÑO
Research Scholar
44 FORECAST LA | 2015
LMU students complete a 15-week course of
preparatory briefings and local field trips
prior to traveling to Mexico City for a weeklong immersion. In this program Los Angeles
and Mexico City-based college students
acquire a greater understanding of their own
metropolis through a systematic comparison
of the structures and dynamics of these
two megacities.
UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH SYMPOSIUM
The Undergraduate Research Symposium
(URS) is an annual conference hosted by LMU
during which the work of several hundred
undergraduate students is presented to faculty,
staff, family, and other LMU students. Each year,
many of the Center’s student researchers design,
organize, and present a research project at the
URS. In addition to receiving guidance about
interviewing methods, data analysis, and writing,
students are mentored in the use and application
of statistical analysis programs like Stata and
SPSS, geographic information systems software
like ArcGIS, and survey creation and processing
software like Qualtrics. Furthermore, students
learn to use and process large datasets including
the Center’s LA Riots and LA Votes archives,
various city clerk and county clerk archives,
the American Community Survey, and the U.S.
Decennial Census. The process often entails
dozens of drafts but yields excellent, graduatelevel work.
LECTURE SERIES
The Center organizes two lecture series in
addition to various standalone lectures and
panels throughout the year. Lectures are filmed
and broadcast on LA36 and archived on the
Center’s YouTube channel. The Fall Lecture Series
examines race, ethnicity, and political inclusion in
the region, state, and nation. The spring Forecast
LA Lecture Series focuses on the future of Los
Angeles especially in terms of culture, politics,
infrastructure, education, and elections, and
culminates in the Forecast LA conference. All
lectures are free and open to the public. These
lectures offer students an intimate perspective on
Los Angeles and create opportunities for them to
interact with public leaders.
THE THOMAS AND DOROTHY LEAVEY
CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES
RESEARCH COLLECTION
The Research Collection is a special collection
focused on preserving Los Angeles political
artifacts. It houses papers of Los Angeles public
officials, Los Angeles’ real estate and industrial
developers, reformers and reform movements
(principally in the late twentieth-century Los
Angeles), prominent Roman Catholic families
in Los Angeles, and other collections related
to Los Angeles history and politics. Most
recently the Center celebrated the addition of
the Bill Rosendahl-Adelphia Communication
Corporate Collection of Public Affairs Television
Programs. The Research Collection encourages
original undergraduate research and preserves
knowledge for future generations of Angelenos.
REFORMERS and REFORM MOVEMENTS
Catholic Human Relations Council Collection
Catholic Labor Institute
Thomas A. Gaudette Papers
LAAMP Collection
LEARN Collection
William F. Masterson Papers
Rebuild LA Collection
ROMAN CATHOLIC FAMILIES
Dockweiler Family Collections (2 collections)
Documents for the History of the Machado Family and the Rancho La Ballona
Joseph Scott Collection
Stephen Mallory White Papers
Workman Family Papers
Mary Julia Workman Research Materials Collection
OTHER COLLECTIONS
Big Pine Citizen Newspaper Collection
J. D. Black Papers
The Citizen and Cheviot Chatter
Documents for the History of Nineteenth-Century Los Angeles
“LA 2000” Records of the 2000 Democratic National Convention
KCET-TV Collection of "Life and Times" video recordings & production files
KCET-TV Collection of "California Connected" video recordings & production files
Pardee Dam Construction Photograph Album
Carroll and Lorrin Morrison Photographic Collection
Rancho La Ballona Map, 1876
Which Way, LA? Collection
WPA Transcriptions of Los Angeles City Archives Records
FORECAST LA Lecture Series
Spring 2015 Season
Ahmanson Auditorium, 5-7 pm
February 10: What does it mean to be an Angeleno?
February 17: Mayor Riordan and his memoir
March 10: Election post-mortem
March 17: New urbanism: smart growth in LA
March 24: Los Angeles County City Managers
April 7: Forecast LA for the LMU community
#ForecastLA
@LMUCSLA on Facebook, Twitter, & Instagram
The Forecast LA Lecture Series explores the future of
Los Angeles from the perspective of its thought leaders,
elected officials, and residents.
Lectures are held in the spring semester on select Tuesdays
from 5-7 pm at Loyola Marymount University.
ORGANIZED BY THE THOMAS AND DOROTHY LEAVEY CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF LOS ANGELES
CO-SPONSORED BY THE BELLARMINE FORUM OF THE BELLARMINE COLLEGE OF LIBERAL ARTS
Photo copyright JulieAndSteve: flic.kr/p/bDZREm
california
community
foundation
is proud to support
FORECAST LA
in giving voice to
Angelenos in creating
a more equitable and
prosperous Los Angeles
Photo copyright JulieAndSteve: flic.kr/p/bDZREm
PARTNERS IN BUILDING
A BOLD FUTURE
We proudly support & congratulate
AWARD RECIPIENTS
Thank you for your tremendous leadership.
BOLD IN BUSINESS
PlayaVista.com
Saving Water is
Serious Business.
The L.A. Area Chamber has championed
the needs of the business community and
the citizens of the L.A. region for more
than 127 years. From serving as the voice
of the business in the halls of government
to promoting economic development and
fostering collaboration throughout the
community, the Chamber has worked to
ensure economic prosperity and quality of
life in our region.
lachamber.com
There is nothing better
for your business than
a Majestic address!
Forecast LA ad 15.indd 1
2/25/15 2:48 PM
With a commercial real estate
portfolio totaling approximately
70 million square feet,
Majestic Realty Co. has the
ability to meet our tenant’s
expansion needs within the
Majestic portfolio quickly
and efficiently.
IS PROUD TO SUPPORT
FORECAST LA
With more than $90 billion in assets under management, Payden & Rygel is one of
the largest privately owned investment advisors in the United States. We have been
serving corporations, health care organizations, insurers, foundations, endowments
and individuals since 1983.
Don’t Waste
Another Minute
Wasting Water
THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
13191 Crossroads Parkway North, Sixth Floor
City of Industry, CA 91746 • R.E. License #00255328 (CA)
tel: 562 692 9581 • fax: 562 695 2329 • www.majesticrealty.com
ATLANTA
|
BETHLEHEM
|
DALLAS
|
DENVER
|
LAS VEGAS
|
LOS ANGELES
Payden & Rygel | 333 South Grand Avenue Los Angeles, CA 90071 | payden.com
LOS ANGELES | BOSTON | LONDON | PARIS
Solutions in Perfect Balance
At ARCADIS, we share a single purpose to
improve the environments and lives we touch.
A lofty goal, but one we deliver on every day.
Between the creative and the functional, the
innovative and the tried and true, the natural
and the built environments, present needs
and future legacy, imagination and results. We
envision a better world. Then we engineer it.
Together we can do a world of good.
KB Home is a
proud sponsor of
2015 Forecast LA
www.arcadis-us.com
Imagine the result
www.portoflosangeles.org
THE ENERGY OF
» ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
SoCalGas® is a proud supporter of Forecast LA, because we understand that local
businesses are the backbone of our economy. SoCalGas shares its commitment to
strengthening the business environment and improving our communities.
socalgas.com
© 2015 Southern California Gas Company. Trademarks are property of their respective owners. All rights reserved.
N15E0064A 0315
Education That Transforms
The Bellarmine College of Liberal Arts offers a
transformative educational experience motivated
by the values of respect for our diverse global
community and a passion for creating a more just
and humane society. Inspired by the rich heritage
of our Jesuit, Marymount, and CSJ traditions, we
create a distinctive academic environment.
Economic Insights for
Business and Government
Working together to create a
prosperous tomorrow
Fortune 500 companies, the State
of California, major cities and
counties, and a leading Wall Street
hedge fund all use analysis from
Beacon Economics.
Learn more at www.BeaconEcon.com
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
Economic & Revenue Forecasting
Economic Impact Analysis
Economic Policy Analysis
Real Estate Market Analysis
EB-5 Visa Economic Analysis
Expert Witness Services
Public Speaking
Wells Fargo Capital Finance is proud to support Forecast LA.
When we all come together to support our communities, we create a better place where we
can all thrive.
Wells Fargo Capital Finance
wellsfargocapitalfinance.com
310-571-3399 | www.BeaconEcon.com
© 2015 Wells Fargo Capital Finance. All rights reserved. Products and services require credit approval. Wells Fargo Capital Finance is the trade name for certain asset-based
lending services, senior secured lending services, accounts receivable and purchase order finance services, and channel finance services of Wells Fargo & Company and its
subsidiaries.
City
Administrative
Officer
LAX.
NOW WE’RE
FLYING.
The LADWP is pleased to support the
2015 LMU
Forecast LA Conference
ROJECT
OWERING P
HAYNES REP
DR. PANK
AJ
UV FILTRA PAREKH
TION PLA
NT
Center for the Study
of Los Angeles
&
PHOTO: ©LAWRENCE ANDERSON
The Los Angeles
City Administrative Officer
is proud to sponsor
We’re not just renovating LAX, we’re reimagining what an airport can be.
PASSENGER
EXPERIENCE
Forecast LA
LADWP is investing over $7 billion in water and power
infrastructure and is a major driver of economic growth
in Southern California.
For information on our many infrastructure and economic
development programs go to www.ladwp.com.
A well-run city government is the core of the CAO’s mission.
For information visit cao.lacity.org.
Impressive architectural and
design transformations are
taking place at many of the
LAX terminals, as well as free
WiFi, plenty of new charging
stations and comfortable new
lounges.
to community
Form meets function. A
beautifully designed connector
walkway will seamlessly
and quickly link international
travelers to their domestic
airline connections, saving time
and effort.
to jobs
We are proud to support
Loyola Marymount
University and Forecast
LA in preparing for the
future of Los Angeles.
LAInternationalAirport
1
Celebrating 150 years
Learn more about how we’re helping at
bankofamerica.com/greaterlosangeles
Randal Hernandez
Government Relations Executive
562-590-4057
to each other
www.Gensler.com
Bank of America, N.A. Member FDIC. Equal Housing Lender. © 2015 Bank of America Corporation. ARJ93S4P | CSR-121-AD
We’ve brought in favorite local
restaurants such as Umami
Burger and Lemonade as well
as some of LA’s trendiest shops,
like Kitson. Experience the
cuisine and style of LA, right
at LAX.
Proud to
suPPort
LoyoLa
MaryMount
university.
At Bank of America, we’re connecting our resources and
people to the things that make life better in communities
across the United States. From working with local
businesses that create jobs and supporting nonprofits
that address critical needs to revitalizing neighborhoods
and funding safe and affordable housing. Our mission is
simple: to help Los Angeles thrive.
to compassion
LA SHOPS &
RESTAURANTS
@flyLAXairport
The Ritz-Carlton Hotel & Residences and JW Marriott at LA LIVE
Forecast_LA 2015-0225.indd
Life’s better
when we’re
connected®
CONNECTING
TERMINALS
www.GenslerOn.com
@GenslerOnCities
©2015 MUFG Union Bank, N.A. All rights reserved. Member FDIC.
Union Bank is a registered trademark and brand name of
MUFG Union Bank, N.A.
2/26/15
Mercer is a global
team of over 20,000
individuals who
dedicate their skills
and knowledge to
enhancing the health,
wealth and careers of
more than 100 million
people worldwide.
www.mercer.com
Proud to Support
Forecast LA
The Thomas and Dorothy Leavey
Center for the Study of Los Angeles at
Loyola Marymount University and
Beacon Economics
Employee
Benefits:
What we do best!
Pacific Federal Insurance Corporation
One of California’s Largest Privately-Owned Employee Benefit Firms
Thanks to all our generous sponsors!
PacFed Insurance Services — CA License # 0543099 | PacFed Benefit Administrators — CA License # 0B09747
1000 North Central Avenue, Suite 400, Glendale, CA 91202
for more information:
thomas and dorothy leavey center for the study of los angeles
loyola marymount university
1 lmu drive, suite 4119
los angeles, ca 90045
310.338.4565 | [email protected]
www.lmu.edu/forecastLA
reproduction of this document or any portion therein is prohibited without the express written permission of the center for the study of los angeles. copyright © 2015 by loyola marymount university.
designed by berto solis, karen stein, & ginny warren