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Camouflage confronts decreasing snowpack: Will species adapt to climate change and how can we help them? Marketa Zimova, North Carolina State University L. ScoB Mills, North Carolina State University AdaptaDon to anthropogenic stressors 1.  Adjustments = Phenotypic plasDcity 2.  EvoluDon •  Facilitate adaptaDon to climate change •  But not well understood in relaDon to climate change 2 AdaptaDon: 1. Phenotypic plasDcity •  Most immediate soluDon •  Adjustments in physiology, morphology, behavior... •  Human red cell count •  Responses to CC: -­‐ earlier breeding in red squirrel 3 AdaptaDon: 2. EvoluDon •  Longterm soluDon •  Change in gene frequencies •  Natural selecDon •  SomeDmes fast •  Responses to CC: earlier egg laying in great Dts Ole Thorsen 4 Phenological mismatch • 
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Phenology= Dming of life events Mainly controlled by photoperiod Shorter winters/longer growing seasons AdapDve potenDal or mechanisms rarely understood C. Both E. Post 5 Climate change in temperate regions •  Shorter winters •  ReducDon of days with snow on the ground 6 Snowshoe hare Lepus americanus 7 Snowshoe hare Lepus americanus •  Seasonal coat color molDng •  Photoperiod driven •  Camouflage strategy compromised by climate change Winter Summer 8 Camouflage mismatch 9 Research methods • 
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Field intensive Radiocollared 200 hares Weekly monitoring Snow downscaling 10 Results AND MORE SNOW 11 1. PlasDcity (=adjustments) in molt Dming •  Molts began at the same Dme each year •  Photoperiod (daylength) main driver •  Hormonal basis not fully understood -­‐ melatonin pathway Mills et al 2013 PNAS 12 1. PlasDcity (=adjustments) in molt Dming •  No plasDcity in the fall •  Some adjustments in the spring (temperature, snow) •  Limited ability to adjust to decreased snow cover duraDon = 4-­‐fold mismatch by 2050 = 8-­‐fold mismatch by 2100 Mills et al 2013 PNAS 13 2. PlasDcity (=adjustments) in behavior 14 2. PlasDcity (=adjustments) in behavior 1.  Hiding 2.  Flight iniDaDon distance 3.  Background selecDon 15 1. PlasDcity in molt Dming 2. PlasDcity in behavior Zimova et al 2014 ProcB 16 17 1. Adjustments in molt Dming 2. Adjustments in behavior 3. EvoluDon 18 Costs of color mismatch •  NegaDve consequences of mismatch •  20% declines by 2100 in the absence of evoluDon 19 AdaptaDon through evoluDon Fostering evoluAonary rescue •  Large populaDon •  ConnecDvity •  Decrease other stressors 20 PhD research •  Other color molDng species •  Mechanisms of adaptaDon •  RecommendaDons to foster adaptaDon 21 • 
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PhD research 1. EvoluDonary adaptaDon in the past? Mountain hares in Scotland Occupy heather moorlands PopulaDon decreases Important prey sp. 22 PhD research 1. EvoluDonary adaptaDon in the past? •  Mountain hares in Scodsh Highlands •  Detailed field studies from 1950s and 1960s 23 PhD research 1. EvoluDonary adaptaDon in the past? •  Compare molt phenology from 50s and current •  Compare historical and current genomes 24 PhD research 2. Mismatch in arcDc fox in Scandinavia •  Prey/predatory species across the arcDc •  Two ecology types •  Two color morphs 25 PhD research 2. Mismatch in arcDc fox in Scandinavia •  Use camera traps installed by den sites and feeding staDons •  Describe color molt and camouflage •  Predict future mismatch and morph frequencies 26 Future research 3. Polymorphic populaDons •  Brown snowshoe hares in coastal areas in WA, OR •  MariDme climate •  Brown AND white hares in Cascade Mountains •  Advantage of different coat colors •  GeneDc and hormonal control 27 Acknowledgments Advisor: L. ScoB Mills (NCSU) Collaborators: Paulo Celio Alves (POR) Anders Angerbjorn (SWE) Jose Melo Ferreira (POR) Jeff Good (UM) Klaus Hacklander (AUS) Glenn Iason (UK) Paul Lukacs (UM) Josh J. Nowak (UM) ScoB Newey (UK) Jared Oyler (UM) Steve Running (UM) Adam Terando (NCSU) hBp://research.cnr.ncsu.edu/sites/
millslab/mzimova/ 28