ANDY HANSEN Montana State University Vulnerability of Tree Species and Biome Types to Climate Change in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains and Yellowstone Andy Hansen, Linda Phillips, Tony Chang, Nathan Piekielek, Katie Ireland Montana State University and Penn State University NASA Applied Sciences Program (NNH10ZDA001N - BIOCLIM) GNLCC Webinar March 18 2015 Which tree species and biome types are most vulnerable to climate change and how can management help? Studies Summarized • Meta-analysis of tree species and biome climate suitability across the US Northern Rockies. Hansen, Phillips. 2015. Forest Ecology and Mgt. • Habitat suitability of tree species in Greater Yellowstone. Piekielek, Hansen, Chang. In Review. EcoInformatics. • Climate suitability modeling for whitebark pine in Yellowstone. Chang, Hansen, Piekielek. 2014. Plos ONE. • Implications for management: WBP in the GYE. Hansen et al. In Review. Biol. Cons.; Ireland et al. In Prep. Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project Principle Researchers A Hansen, C Whitlock, E Shanahan: Montana State Univ S Goetz, P Jantz: Woods Hole Research Center B Monihan, J Gross: NPS I&M Program T Olliff: NPS / Great Northern LCC F Melton: CSU Monterey Bay / NASA Ames D Theobald: Conservation Science Partners Goal: Understand and manage wildland ecosystems under climate change Agency Collaborators • • • • • • • • • • • Study Areas • • NASA Applied Sciences Program North Central Climate Sciences Center MT EPSCoR Western US NPS I&M Greater Yellowstone Network: K Legg NPS I&M Rocky Mountain Network: M Britten GYCC: V. Kelly GYCC Whitebark Pine Subcom: K Buermeyer Grand Teton National Park: D. Reinhart Yellowstone National Park: A Rodmann Rocky Mountain National Park: B Bobowski Eastern US NPS I&M Appalachian Highlands Network: R Emmott NPS I&M Eastern Rivers and Mountains Network: M Marshall NPS I&M Mid-Atlantic Network: J Comiskey Delaware Water Gap National Recreational Area: R Evans, L Morelock Great Smoky Mountains National Park: J Renfro Shenandoah National Park: J Schaberl Collaborative Approach to Climate Adaptation Glick et al. 2011. Scanning the Conservation Horizon. John Gross, NPS Climate Scientist Ben Bobowski, Chief of Resources, Rocky Mountain National Park Scientific Assessment Scientific Assessment N. Zimmerman 2014 Climate Envelope Modeling Latitude (Y) Identify places where future climate is projected to be suitable for a species. Longitude (X) 2. Obtain climate data for these locations Ppres = f (climate) Temperature 1. Identify where the species is present Moisture 4. Project presence under future conditions 3. Statistically relate presence to climate Climate Envelop Modeling Ignores Change in • Disturbance / pests • Competition with other species Ignores • Adaptive capacity: dispersal, genetic variation, etc. Utility • Climate suitability is a strong indicator of where viable populations may be able to exist. • Other controlling factors can be manipulated through management. • Thus, knowledge of climate suitability is a first filter for prioritizing research and management. Meta-analysis for US Northern Rockies Study Statistical modeling method Reference and Scenarios / GCMs Vegetation future projection units periods Biomes 1961-1990 A1, B2 / 2030, 2060, 2090 Consensus of CGCM3, GFDLCM21, HADCM3 Rehfeldt et al. 2012 Random Forests Crookson et al. 2010 Random Forests 1961-1990 A1, B2 / 2030, 2060, 2090 CGCM3, GFDLCM21, HADCM3 Coops and Waring 2011 Decision Tree Regression 1950-1975 2020’s, 2050’s, 2080’s 1961-1990 2020s, 2050s, 2080s Gray & Hamann Random Forests 2013 Bell et al. 2014 Baysian Logistic Regression 1981-2010 2070-2099 A1, B2 / CGCM3 Tree species Tree species Consensus of AIFI, A2, Tree species B1, B2 under CGCM, CSIRO2, HADCM3, ECHAM4, PCM A1, B2 / Tree species Average of 16 GCMs Selected based on: GNLCC or wider in extent; used comparable GCMs, scenarios, methods; grain size projection results available. Future Climate Projection: Scenarios Story Line IPCC CMIP4 (2007) IPCC CMIP5 (2013) “Business as usual emissions” A2 RCP 8.5 “Global reductions in emissions” B1 RCP 4.5 Future Climate GYE PACE CMIP5, 8 GCM ensemble average Reference period: 1980-2005 average Change in temperature by 2100 (°C) Change in PPT (mm) by 2100 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 3.0 7.0 60 (7.5%) 130 (16.3%) Context: Mean July temperature across North America since the end of the last ice age 14 000 years ago varied ~5 0C (Viau et al. 2006). Future Climate GYE PACE CMIP5, 8 GCM ensemble average, 800 m Aridity Index (PET/PPT) RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 Biome Types A2 , B1, 3 GCM consensus Current 2090 Percent of GNLCC Suitable in Climate Biome Types A2, B1, 3 GCM consensus A2 Scenario Tree Species Coops & Waring Crookston et al. Gray & Hamann Bell et al. Subalpine Montane Mesic Western redcedar Western hemlock Percent of GNLCC Suitable in Climate, Reference Period to 2100 Change in Spatial Patterns A2 Scenario Change in Spatial Patterns A2 Scenario Vulnerability Assessment Based on Potential Impact Time Period Current Period Metric Area of suitable habitat Units Percent of study area Late century (e.g., 20702090) Loss of reference-period suitable habitat Percent loss of area from the reference period Naturally colonizable newly suitable habitat by 2070-2090 % gain in suitable habitat <=30 km from ref suitable) Newly suitable habitat by 2070-2090 requiring assisted migration Percent gain in suitable habitat >30 km from ref suitable) Vulnerability Ranking 5: Very high (<10% of area) 4: High (10<30% of area) 3: Medium (30<50% of area) 2: Low (50<75% of area) 1: Very low (>=75% of area) 5: Very high (>75%) 4: High (>50-75%) 3: Medium (>30-50%) 2: Low (>10-30%) 1: Very low (<=10%) 0: very low gain (0<10%) -1: low gain (10<50%) -2: mod gain (50<100%) -3: large gain (100<150%) -4: very large gain (>=150%) 0: low gain (0<20%) -1: mod gain (20<100%) -2: large gain (>100%) Vulnerability Assessment Based on Potential Impact Average among studies for A2 scenario Habitat Suitability Modeling: Greater Yellowstone Methods Chang et al. 2014; Piekielek et al. in review Response Data 2,569 data points from FIA, GYCC, WLIS, GYRN I&M Predictor Data • PRISM climate (19 variables) • Monthly water balance using Thornthwaite equation (10 variables) • Parent material, topography (10 variables) Random Forests Species Sagebrush spp., Juniper spp. Limber pine, Aspen, Douglas fir, Lodgepole Pine, Subalpine fir, Engleman spruce, Whitebark pine Analyses • NC CSC Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling (SAHM) VisTrails package • Boosted Regression Trees, Logistic Regression, Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, and Random Forest • Model validation based on ROC for withheld data GCMs • Best 9 CHIP5 GCMs WBP Suitability under 9 GCMs 2010 – 2100 RCP 8.5 scenario Greater Yellowstone Douglas fir N Suitable to Suitable Suitable to Unsuitable Unsuitable to suitable 2010 – 2100 RCP 8.5 scenario Greater Yellowstone Juniper Suitable to Suitable Suitable to Unsuitable Unsuitable to suitable 2010 – 2100 RCP 8.5 scenario Greater Yellowstone Lodgepole pine YNP Photo Archives Suitable to Suitable Suitable to Unsuitable Unsuitable to suitable 2010 – 2100 RCP 8.5 scenario Greater Yellowstone Subalpine fir Suitable to Suitable Suitable to Unsuitable Unsuitable to suitable Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine RCP 8.5 scenario Prob. Presence > 0.42 N 2010 Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine RCP 8.5 scenario Prob. Presence > 0.42 N 2040 Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine RCP 8.5 scenario Prob. Presence > 0.42 N 2070 Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine RCP 8.5 scenario Prob. Presence > 0.42 N 2099 Greater Yellowstone Whitebark Pine RCP 8.5 scenario Prob. Presence > 0.42 N % 1950-80 Suitable Habitat 2010 2099 RCP 4.5 91.3 17.8 RCP 8.5 91.3 3.0 2099 Climate Envelope Modeling Conclusions In the Northern Rockies and Yellowstone, subalpine forests are high in vulnerability to climate change and lower treeline forests are pushed substantially upslope. These results might suggest that upper and lower treeline forests are least resilient to climate change, beetles, fire. In these zones of forest decline, ecosystem services relating to snowpack, runoff, and food and habitat for other species will be reduced. Climate suitability for tree species is an important filter for prioritizing research and management. YNP Photo Archives Collaborative Approach to Climate Adaptation Glick et al. 2011. Scanning the Conservation Horizon. John Gross, NPS Climate Scientist Ben Bobowski, Chief of Resources, Rocky Mountain National Park Informing implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Strategy based on climate sciences MSU and UM: Andrew Hansen, Tom Olliff, Cathy Whitlock et al. GYCC WBP Subcommittee: Karl Buermeyer, Kelly McClosky, Dan Reinhart, Kristen Legg Funding: North Central Climate Sciences Center Management Implications for Whitebark Pine RCP 4.5 Core Habitat. Manage to retain the species in these vitally important zones. Deteriorating Habitat. • Give up? • Manage towards Scenarios of Viability? RCP 8.5 Future habitat. Manage for natural colonization and assisted colonization. Adaptive Management Opportunities Adaptive Management Opportunities Adaptive Management Opportunities Informing implementation of the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee’s Whitebark Pine Strategy based on climate sciences MSU and UM: Andrew Hansen, Tom Olliff, Cathy Whitlock et al. GYCC WBP Subcommittee: Karl Buermeyer, Kelly McClosky, Dan Reinhart, Kristen Legg Objectives 1. Ecological forecasting under alternative IPCC climate and land use scenarios. 2. Analyzing WBP response to climate and extreme climate events over the past 15,000 years. 3. Develop spatially explicit WBP management alternatives. 4. Evaluate the management alternatives under future climate scenarios: • WBP goals • Ecosystem services derived from WBP • Cost of implementation. 5. Draw recommendations for implementation of the GYCC WBP strategy under climate change. Funding: North Central Climate Sciences Center Workshop Prospectus Vegetation Vulnerability across the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem: Managing under Climate Change Date and Venue April 9, 2015: USGS Science Center, Bozeman, MT Objectives 1. Synthesize results from the NASA Landscape Climate Change Vulnerability Project (LCCVP)* study on climate change, ecological response, vulnerability assessment. 2. Identify management-relevant issues for vegetation in the GYE based on LCCVP, Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership, Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee, and related activities. 3. Attempt to “close the loop” on the Climate Smart Cycle by outlining approaches for developing/evaluating/implementing/monitoring climate adaptation strategies. Acknowledgements NASA Applied Sciences Program (Grant 10-BIOCLIM10-0034) NSF EPSCoR Track-I EPS-1101342 (INSTEP 3) NASA Land Cover Land Use Change Program North Central Climate Sciences Center Federal agency collaborators Literature Cited Hansen, A.J. and L.B. Phillips, 2015. Which tree species and biome types are most vulnerable to climate change in the US Northern Rocky Mountains?, Forest Ecology and Management, 338: pp. 68-83. Chang, T., A.J. Hansen, N. Piekielek. 2014. Patterns and variability of projected bioclimate habitat for Pinus albicaulis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. PLOS One. November 05, 2014. Piekielek, N., A.J. Hansen, T. Chang. In Review. Using custom scientific workflow software and GIS to inform protected area climate adaptation planning across Greater Yellowstone. EcoInformatics. Hansen, A.J., K. Ireland, K. Legg, E. Barge, M. Jenkis, M. Pillet. In Review. Can whitebark pine persist in Greater Yellowstone? Exploring Scenarios of Viability for species under deteriorating climates. Biological Conservation.
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