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Designing a Risk Communications System
Bryan Norcross
The Weather Channel
Senior Hurricane Specialist
National Hurricane Conference
Austin, Texas – April 2, 2015
FROM NATE SILVER
The Signal and the Noise
Are you providing more information, or making more noise?
•  How to make the message stand out from
the noise?
•  Too much information equals more noise.
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Communications Timetable
The framework of a successful communications system
READY, SET, HURRICANE
Communications Timetable Checklist
Leaving home is HARD!
ü  Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation
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READY, SET, HURRICANE
Communications Timetable Checklist
Leaving home is HARD!
ü  Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation
ü  Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news.
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READY, SET, HURRICANE
Communications Timetable Checklist
Leaving home is HARD!
ü  Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation
ü  Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news.
ü  Early information is NOT hype, if handled correctly.
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READY, SET, HURRICANE
Communications Timetable Checklist
Leaving home is HARD!
ü  Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation
ü  Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news.
ü  Early information is NOT hype, if handled correctly.
ü  A reliable schedule builds confidence.
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READY, SET, HURRICANE
Communications Timetable Checklist
Leaving home is HARD!
ü  Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation
ü  Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news.
ü  Early information is NOT hype, if handled correctly.
ü  A reliable schedule builds confidence.
ü  Schedule at times most convenient for residents.
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Timetable Example
Hurricane Sandy - 2012
GETTING BEHIND THE CURVE
Hurricane Sandy Threat Timeline
Misreading the threat.
Mon-Wed: Threat is POSSIBLE
Thursday: Action is an INCREASING POSSIBILITY
Friday: Action is LIKELY IF NO CHANGES
Saturday: Event is LIKELY to occur
Sunday: Event is IMMINENT
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GETTING BEHIND THE CURVE
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Hurricane Sandy Threat Timeline
Misreading the threat.
Mon-Wed: Threat is POSSIBLE
Thursday: Action is an INCREASING POSSIBILITY
Friday: Action is LIKELY IF NO CHANGES
Saturday: Event is LIKELY to occur
Sunday: Event is IMMINENT
INFORMATION
MISSTEPS
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Communications Philosophy
Decide in advance… HOW TO…
GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE
Communications Philosophy
Think out in ADVANCE… how to…
1.  How to begin discussion of threat.
2. How to raise awareness without alarm.
3. How to convey the storm surge threat.
4. How to end hopeful period.
5. How to give tangible guidance.
6. How to lead by example.
And practice how to convey the message.
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Unambiguous Language
Key Questions
COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
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Unambiguous Language
Words matter. Are you saying what you mean?
1. Be aware of the “real” meaning of the words you use.
WARNING
WATCH
ADVISORY
STORM SURGE
TROPICAL STORM
TROPICAL CYCLONE
TS or TD
MAJOR HURRICANE
CONVECTION
CLIMATOLOGICAL
* Key words have common-language meaning which is different from weather-alert meaning.
Example: The word “WARNING” carries no intrinsic sense of urgency.
COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
Unambiguous Language
Words matter. Are you saying what you mean?
1. Be aware of the “real” meaning of the words you use.
2. Be aware of confusion caused by using the same alert
words for various weather types.
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COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
Unambiguous Language
Words matter. Are you saying what you mean?
1. Be aware of the “real” meaning of the words you use.
2. Be aware of confusion caused by using the same alert
words for various weather types.
3. How do you distinguish a previous threat from an extreme event
beyond anyone’s experience?
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COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
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Unambiguous Language
Words matter. Are you saying what you mean?
Hurricane Warning Issued for Miami…
Same words – different storms
Katrina
Andrew
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Unambiguous Message Format
Key Questions
COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
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Unambiguous Message Format
It’s not just the words that communicate.
* The medium (format) is the message.
Marshall Mcluhan
1964
COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
Unambiguous Message Format
It’s not just the words that communicate.
* The medium (format) is the message.
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COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
Unambiguous Message Format
It’s not just the words that communicate.
* The medium (format) is the message.
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COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
Unambiguous Message Format
It’s not just the words that communicate.
* The medium (format) is the message.
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COMMUNICATING CLEARLY
Unambiguous Message Format
It’s not just the words that communicate.
* The medium (format) is the message.
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Thank You.
[email protected]