Mobile Risk Communication System
1 Designing a Risk Communications System Bryan Norcross The Weather Channel Senior Hurricane Specialist National Hurricane Conference Austin, Texas – April 2, 2015 FROM NATE SILVER The Signal and the Noise Are you providing more information, or making more noise? • How to make the message stand out from the noise? • Too much information equals more noise. 2 3 Communications Timetable The framework of a successful communications system READY, SET, HURRICANE Communications Timetable Checklist Leaving home is HARD! ü Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation 4 READY, SET, HURRICANE Communications Timetable Checklist Leaving home is HARD! ü Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation ü Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news. 5 READY, SET, HURRICANE Communications Timetable Checklist Leaving home is HARD! ü Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation ü Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news. ü Early information is NOT hype, if handled correctly. 6 READY, SET, HURRICANE Communications Timetable Checklist Leaving home is HARD! ü Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation ü Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news. ü Early information is NOT hype, if handled correctly. ü A reliable schedule builds confidence. 7 READY, SET, HURRICANE Communications Timetable Checklist Leaving home is HARD! ü Allow sufficient time for MENTAL and PHYSICAL preparation ü Get ahead of the storm. No news is NOT good news. ü Early information is NOT hype, if handled correctly. ü A reliable schedule builds confidence. ü Schedule at times most convenient for residents. 8 9 Timetable Example Hurricane Sandy - 2012 GETTING BEHIND THE CURVE Hurricane Sandy Threat Timeline Misreading the threat. Mon-Wed: Threat is POSSIBLE Thursday: Action is an INCREASING POSSIBILITY Friday: Action is LIKELY IF NO CHANGES Saturday: Event is LIKELY to occur Sunday: Event is IMMINENT 10 GETTING BEHIND THE CURVE 11 Hurricane Sandy Threat Timeline Misreading the threat. Mon-Wed: Threat is POSSIBLE Thursday: Action is an INCREASING POSSIBILITY Friday: Action is LIKELY IF NO CHANGES Saturday: Event is LIKELY to occur Sunday: Event is IMMINENT INFORMATION MISSTEPS 12 Communications Philosophy Decide in advance… HOW TO… GETTING AHEAD OF THE CURVE Communications Philosophy Think out in ADVANCE… how to… 1. How to begin discussion of threat. 2. How to raise awareness without alarm. 3. How to convey the storm surge threat. 4. How to end hopeful period. 5. How to give tangible guidance. 6. How to lead by example. And practice how to convey the message. 13 14 Unambiguous Language Key Questions COMMUNICATING CLEARLY 15 Unambiguous Language Words matter. Are you saying what you mean? 1. Be aware of the “real” meaning of the words you use. WARNING WATCH ADVISORY STORM SURGE TROPICAL STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE TS or TD MAJOR HURRICANE CONVECTION CLIMATOLOGICAL * Key words have common-language meaning which is different from weather-alert meaning. Example: The word “WARNING” carries no intrinsic sense of urgency. COMMUNICATING CLEARLY Unambiguous Language Words matter. Are you saying what you mean? 1. Be aware of the “real” meaning of the words you use. 2. Be aware of confusion caused by using the same alert words for various weather types. 16 COMMUNICATING CLEARLY Unambiguous Language Words matter. Are you saying what you mean? 1. Be aware of the “real” meaning of the words you use. 2. Be aware of confusion caused by using the same alert words for various weather types. 3. How do you distinguish a previous threat from an extreme event beyond anyone’s experience? 17 COMMUNICATING CLEARLY 18 Unambiguous Language Words matter. Are you saying what you mean? Hurricane Warning Issued for Miami… Same words – different storms Katrina Andrew 19 Unambiguous Message Format Key Questions COMMUNICATING CLEARLY 20 Unambiguous Message Format It’s not just the words that communicate. * The medium (format) is the message. Marshall Mcluhan 1964 COMMUNICATING CLEARLY Unambiguous Message Format It’s not just the words that communicate. * The medium (format) is the message. 21 COMMUNICATING CLEARLY Unambiguous Message Format It’s not just the words that communicate. * The medium (format) is the message. 22 COMMUNICATING CLEARLY Unambiguous Message Format It’s not just the words that communicate. * The medium (format) is the message. 23 COMMUNICATING CLEARLY Unambiguous Message Format It’s not just the words that communicate. * The medium (format) is the message. 24 25 Thank You. [email protected]
© Copyright 2024