ICEM 2015 Final Program
ICEM 2015 Final Program Tuesday 23 – Friday 26 June 2015 This programme is subject to change Tuesday, 23 June 2015 0800 – 1700 Registration Open 0850 – 9000 Conference Welcome and Opening 0900 – 1130 Opening Plenary Ms Claude Nahon Mr David Grimes Dr Alexander MacDonald Dr Amory Lovins 1130 – 1150 Morning Break/Posters 1150 – 1330 Energy Resource Assessment (Flow Modelling) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (Solar Short) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (Misc) 1150 – 1210 Wind Flow Modeling: Are Computationally Intensive Models More Accurate? Philippe Beaucagent Calibration of Short-Range Global Radiation Ensemble Forecasts Ben Bouallegue Evaluation of Decomposition and Transposition Models for Irradiance Data Conversion under Hot Desert Climates Arttu Tuomiranta 1210 – 1230 Wind Power Estimates from Numerical Weather Models Using Rotor Equivalent Wind Speed and the Full Power Equation Christopher Clack Very Short-Term Irradiations Forecasting Using Fisheye Images Charlotte Gauchet Short-Term Forecasting of National PV Production - Challenges Regarding the Solar Eclipse 2015 Ruben Jubeh 1230 – 1250 3 Competing Approaches to Quantify Changes in the Local Wind Climate Caused by a Downstream Windfarm Jesper Nissen A Bayesian Approach to Statistical Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Tyler McCandless How Does Relative Humidity Affect Electricity Demand? Ying Chen 1250 – 1310 Necessary Accuracy of Offshore Wind and Turbulence Measurements for the Improvement of Micrometeorological Models Jens Tambke Short-Term Irradiance Forecasts Using Cloud Motion Vectors Abhnil Prasad Now-casting of Wind and PV for Traders Roman Asper 1310 – 1330 Turbulent Wake Flow Characteristics Investigated with LES Björn Witha Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecast Based on Multi-TSI Network Dantong Yu Seasonal Forecasts of River Flow in France Laurent Dubus 1330 - 1430 Lunch & team based activities 1430 - 1610 Energy Resource Assessment (Analogs) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (Solar Short and Long) Energy Policy (General) 1430 – 1450 Support Vector Regression for Wind Resource Assessment and Feature Identification Thomas Dunstan Retrieval of Direct and Diffuse Irradiance with the Use of Hemispheric Sky Images Detlev Heinemann Effective Communication: A Fundamental Requirement for a Sound Meteorology-Energy Sector Relationship Ian Muirhead 1450 – 1510 Matrix-Analog Measure-Correlate-Predict Approach David Hanslian A New Cloud Identification Model and ShortTerm Irradiance Forecasting Method Using Inexpensive Ground-Based Cameras Samuel West Mitigation-Adaptation Nexus in the Energy Sector Ferenc Toth 1510 – 1530 Computationally Efficient Dynamical Downscaling with an Analog Ensemble: Application to Wind Resource Assessment Daran Rife Soleksat, a Flexible Solar Irradiance Forecasting Tool Using Satellite Images and Geographic Web-Services Sylvain Cros The National Energy with Weather System (NEWS) Simulator Shows that up to an 80% Reduction in Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the US Electric Sector is Only Cost Effective at Large Geographic Scale. Christopher Clack 1530 – 1550 Spatial and Time Complementarity of Future Wind Energy Production Patterns over Europe: Main Features and Consequences for Transmission Grids. Fabio Monforti-Ferrario A Community Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System for Calibrated Solar Irradiance David Gagne Could Crop Roughness Impact the Wind Resource at Agriculturally Productive Wind Farm Sites? Brian Vanderwende 1550 – 1610 Validation of Annual Wind Energy Production Estimates Using the WRF Model at 50 Wind Farms Mark Zagar Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations John Dise 1610 - 1630 Coffee Break/Posters Energy Resource Assessment (Wind Atlas) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (Solar Long Forecast) Energy Policy (Specific) 1630 – 1650 The Global Wind Atlas: The New Worldwide Microscale Wind Resource Assessment Data and Tools Jake Badger The SunCast Solar Power Forecasting System Sue Haupt Saudi Arabia’s Domestic Energy Situation and Policy: Focusing on Demand Side Management on Power Sector Nabeel Alabbas 1650 – 1710 The Global Wind Resource Atlas: Comparison of Downscaling from Atmospheric Reanalysis and WRF Mesoscale Simulations Andrea Hahmann Towards Gridded Foundational Solar Forecast of Enhanced Accuracy: Weather “Situation” Dependent Forecast Error and Machine-Learnt Multi-Model Blending Siyuan Lu Low-Carbon Electricity Transition in the Middle East and North Africa: A De-Risking Governance Approach Luigi Caraf 1710 – 1730 WASA - A Wind and Stability Atlas Providing Information on Long-Term Atmospheric Conditions in the Southern North Sea Gerald Steinfeld Forecasting Solar Radiation with Online Ensemble Learning Jean Thorey Net Metering – A Nearly-Zero and Zero-Net Energy Building Policy Implemented in Cyprus Alexandros G Charalambides 1730 – 1750 Complementary of Wind and Solar Energy Resources over Europe: An Assessment Study Mario Marcello Miglietta Short and Medium Term Solar Irradiance and Power Forecasting Given High Penetration and a Tropical Environment Wilfred Walsh Energy, Climate Change and Meteorology Policies and Practices in Africa: Taking the Long View Mersie Ejigu 1750 - 1810 Development of a Verified Numerical Wind Atlas in South Africa Christopher Lennard A Comparison of Metrics for Evaluating Solar Forecasts Tara Jensen Real Time Experiment of River Flow Seasonal Forecasts in French Guiana: The Importance of Communication and End-User Interaction Laurent Dubus 1630 – 1810 1830 - 2100 Happy Hour and Official Launch of the “World Energy & Meteorology Council (WEMC)” Tree Plaza, NCAR Mesa Lab Wednesday, 24 June 2015 0800 – 1700 Registration Open 0900 - 1020 Plenary Session 1: World Experts - Business Focus Dr Eric Stein Dr Fabrizio Bizzarri 1020 – 1050 Morning Break/Posters 1050 – 1230 Energy Resource Assessment (Off-Shore and Time Series) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (NWP Solar) Weather and Climate Risk Management (Hydro and Wave) 1050 – 1110 Case Study of Offshore Wind Resources Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and WRF Modeling over China Rui Chang Assessment of Cloud Macroscopic Properties Representation in the WRF NWP Model: Implication for the Solar Radiation Forecasting Reliability David Pozo-Vazquez Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the UK’s Wave Energy Resource Atul Agarwal 1110 – 1130 Estimating the Power Characteristics of Clusters of Large Offshore Wind Farms Daniel Drew Verification of Sectoral Cloud Motion Based Global and Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Wave Climate Jamie Mitchell 1130 – 1150 Long-Term Variability of the Wind Speed Over Land, in Coastal and in Marine Areas Sven-Erik Gryning WRF-Solar: An Augmented NWP Model for Solar Power Prediction Pedro Jimenez Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Potential in Scotland Gareth Harrison 1150 – 1210 Towards Next Generations of Wind Resource Modeled Time-Series Alex Montornes Comparison of Irradiance Forecasts Based on Numerical Weather Prediction for Central and Northern Europe Elke Lorenz Assessment of Future Hydro Generation Potential Under Climate Change Scenarios Anderson Queiroz 1210 – 1230 Assessment of a 30 Year Onshore UK Wind Dataset Jessica Standen Aerosol Data Assimilation to Evaluate WRF Physics Ensembles for Solar Forecasts Surya Karthik Mukkavilli Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower Production: Environmental Challenges and Management Issues Shadananan Nai Krishnapillai Ignite Presentations (10 minutes each) 1240 – 1250 1250 – 1300 1300 – 1310 1310 – 1320 Energy Resource Assessment/Forecasting for Power-System Applications Energy Resource Assessment/Forecasting for Power-System Applications Improving the Mapping and Prediction of Offshore Wind Resources (IMPOWR): Validation of Ensembles with Historical Field Data Cristina Archer Comparison of Satellite Estimated Hourly Solar Data with Coincident Ground Based Measurements and their Applications in Industry and Commerce Trevor Lee Evaluation of the climatological wind speed simulated by the WRF model over complex terrain: a case study in Trentino (Italy) Lorenzo Giovannini Extensive use of Solar Resource Datasets for a Higher Penetration of Photovoltaics in Insular or Weakly Interconnected Electricity Grid Antoine Guérin de Montgareuile Improvement of Wind Forecasting through Analyzing and Filtering of Historical Data Roman Asper Short Term Forecasting of Solar Irradiance Using Radiometric Network Michael Palmer Wave Energy Resource Assessment Along the French Coast for Future Climate: Dynamical Versus Statistical Downscaling Methods Amélie Laugel 1320 – 1430 Lunch & team based activities 1430 - 1610 Energy Resource Assessment (Resource Calculation National) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (NWP Solar) Weather and Climate Risk Management (Climate Change) 1430 – 1450 Improving Maryland’s Offshore Wind Energy Resource Estimate Using Remote Sensing Technology to Assess Meteorological Controls Alexandra St. Pe A Hybrid Method for Short-Term Solar Radiation Forecast Based on the Combination of WRF Model Wind Forecast and MSG Cloud Estimates David Pozo-Vazquez Probabilistic Forecasts for Energy – Weeks to A Century or More John Dutton 1450 – 1510 Observations of Turbulence in the Wind Turbine Layer from Wind Profiling Radars Katherine McCaffrey Validation of Operational NWP Forecasts for Global, Diffuse and Direct Solar Exposure over Australia Lawrie Rikus Climate Service Development for the Energy Sector: The Example of EUPORIAS Carlo Buontempo 1510 – 1530 Boundary Layer Wind and Turbulence Features from Offshore Lidar Measurements Yelena Pichugina On the use of NWP for Cloud Base Height Estimation in Cloud Camera-Based Solar Irradiance Nowcasting Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt Assessing Climate Change Impacts on European Solar Photovoltaic and Wind Energy Using a Multi-Model Ensemble of HighResolution Climate Projections Isabelle Tobin Accurate Measurement of Wind-Properties Through the Turbine Rotor Layer for Wind Energy Using High-Resolution Doppler Lidar Robert Banta Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using TSI Cloud Tracking and Numerical Weather Prediction Jin Xu Climatological Relationships Between Wind and Solar Energy Supply in Britain Philip Bett Viability of Wind as Energy Source in Five Cities of Southwestern Nigeria Nnawuike Nze-Esiaga A Multi-Dimensional Criteria Algorithm for Cloud Detection in the Circumsolar Area Alexandros Charalambides Understanding the Impacts of Climate Variability and Climate Change on a Weather Dependent UK Power System Hannah Bloomfield 1530 – 1550 1550 – 1610 1610 – 1630 Coffee Break/Posters 1630 – 1810 Town Hall Meeting - The reality of 100% renewables and what is required of Meteorology 1930 – 2330 Conference Dinner Thursday, 25 June 2015 0800 – 1700 Registration Open 0900 – 1020 Plenary 2: World experts - Policy focus Mr Mike Robinson Prof Wang Zhongying 1020 – 1050 Morning Break/Posters Forecasting for Power-System Applications (Aerosols) Weather and Climate Risk Management (Risk and Climate) Assimilation-Based Aerosol Forecasting at Dust Sites with a Chemical Transport Model Charlotte Hoppe An Integrated Approach for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on the European Electricity Sector Isabelle Tobin Attenuation of Solar Irradiance and PV Power by Smoke Aerosol and Cloud Events Matthew Perry The Contribution of Renewable Electricity Production During Peak Energy Demand Events in Great Britain (GB) Hazel Thornton 1130 – 1150 Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data Using a Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method Aron Habte Atmospheric Composition Modeling over the Arabian Peninsula for Solar Photovoltaic Applications Naseema Shyju Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation in the Nuclear Energy Sector Ferenc Toth 1150 – 1210 Characterizing the Uncertainties of a LI-COR 1800 Spectroradiometer Josh Peterson Urban Solar Irradiance and Power Prediction from Nearby Stations Alberto Troccoli Identifying & Quantifying the Risk of Weather on Wind Generation Russell Bigley 1210 – 1230 How Does the Temporal Resolution of AOD Affect the Accuracy of Clear-Sky DNI Predictions? A Monte-Carlo Approach Using AERONET Observations Jose Ruiz-Arias Data Analytics for Solar Energy Management Lipyeow Lim Objective Identification of Critical Weather Events for Ensuring Net Stability Andrea Steiner 1050 – 1230 1050 – 1110 1110 – 1130 1230 – 1330 Energy Resource Assessment (Solar Accuracy) Improving the Accuracy of Satellite Irradiance Estimates by Combining with Downscaled Reanalysis Robert Davy Accuracy Impact of the Spectral Resolution of Radiative Transfer Models on Clear-Sky Surface Irradiance Predictions Under Variable Aerosol Conditions Chris Gueymard Lunch & team-based activities 1330 - 1510 Energy Resource Assessment (Solar Validation) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (Forecast Errors) Weather and Climate Risk Management (Misc) 1330 – 1350 Global Validation of the REST2 Direct Irradiance Model Gwendalyn Bender The Importance of Wind Forecast Errors for Integrating Offshore Wind Power into the Electric Grid Cristina Archer A Weather-Readiness Assessment Model to Determine the Resilience of Utilities to Deal with Weather Volatility Shylesh Muralidharan 1350 – 1410 Critical Analysis of the use of the CentralLimit-Theorem (CLT) in P90 Meteorological Scenarios for Solar-Powered Plants Philippe Blanc Weather Intelligence for Wind Energy – WILL4WIND Kristian Horvath Overview of Lightning Observations at Wind Farms in the Central United States Amitabh Nag 1410 – 1430 Modelling Beam Attenuation in Solar Tower Plants Using Common DNI Measurements Natalie Hanrieder Comparison of Various Wind Power Bias Correction Techniques Gerald van der Grijn Using Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations to Estimate Spatial Coherence and Power Spectral Density of a Major Hurricane for Wind Turbine Design Applications Rochelle Worsnop 1430 – 1450 Towards an Operational Method for Estimating the Photosynthetically Active Radiation in Clear‑Sky Conditions over the Earth’s Surface William Wandji Statistical Methods for the Development of Skillful Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasts Lueder von Bremen Climate Change Impacts on Hydal Projects With respect to Glacial lake: Case of Nepal Navaraj Pokharel 1450 – 1510 A Fast Radiative Transfer Model for Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting Yu Xie Advancements in Wind Integration Study Input Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Andrew Clifton An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability from the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA’s MERRA and CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations Paul Stackhouse Jr 1510 – 1520 Coffee Break 1520 – 1700 Panels Session/Special Event “How can the Global Framework for Climate Services better serve Energy?” 1710 – 1850 Energy Resource Assessment (Solar Comparison) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (NWP and Analogs) Environmental Impact of Energy Systems (Impact) 1710 – 1730 Comparison Between Estimates of the Surface Downwelling Solar Irradiances under Cloud-Free Skies Extracted from the McClear and HelioClim-3 Services over Egypt Yehia Eissa The Analog Ensemble for Renewable Energy Applications: An Overview Luca Delle Monache Potential Impacts of Solar Arrays on Regional Climate and on Array Efficiency Alberto Troccoli 1730 – 1750 Investigation of DNI-cloud Connections Using Satellite Data Abhnil Prasad A Probabilistic Load Forecast System Based on the Analog Ensemble Method Stefano Alessandrini Environmental Implications of Energy Systems in Developing Countries Yohannes Haile 1750 – 1810 Preliminary Results on Modelling the Monochromatic Beam and Circumsolar Radiation under Cloud-Free Conditions in Desert Environment Yehia Eissa ECMWF Global Medium-Range Ensemble Weather Forecasts for the Energy Sector: Products and Performance David Richardson Wind Turbine Wake Variations with Atmospheric Stability as Measured in CWEX-11 Joseph Lee 1810 – 1830 Irradiance Modeling Using SBDART on Clear and Cloudy Conditions: Sensitivity to Cloud Microphysics Naseema Shyju Optimizing the Physics of the COSMO-DE Ensemble Towards Renewable Energies Jonas von Schumann Lake Erie Wind Farms: Some Preliminary Modelling Using COHERENS Soudeh Afsharian 1830 – 1850 Alternative Method for Characterizing Photodiode Pyranometers for Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers Josh Peterson Comprehensive Forecasting System for Variable Renewable Energy Branko Kosovic Impact of Climate Change on Power Plants Cooling Systems Mathieu Anderhalt Friday, 26 June 2015 0800 – 1700 Registration Open 0900 - 1020 Plenary Session 3: World experts - R&D Focus Dr René Roy Dr Prashant Goswami 1020 – 1050 Morning Break/Posters 1050 – 1230 Energy Resource Assessment (Solar Atlas and Maps) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (NWP Wind) Grid Integration and Smart Grids (Main) 1050 – 1110 Cloud Shadow Maps from Whole Sky Daniel Oberländer Numerical Model Setup and Perfomance Evaluation for Wind Forecast in Northeastern Region of Brazil Fernando Martins Optimization of Distributed Energy Storage Sizing and Siting in Distribution Networks Oytun Babacan 1110 – 1130 Introducing the Gridded National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) Using a Physical Model Output Manajit Sengupta Using Ensemble NWP Wind Power Forecasts to Improve Power System Management Dirk Cannon Analysis of 100% Renewable Power Systems: Deployment Strategies and Efficient Feed-In Monitoring Lueder von Bremen 1130 – 1150 The Development of a Long-term, Continually Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test Processing and Continuing Plans Paul Stackhouse Jr Data Assimilation, Ensemble NWP and PostProcessing Technologies for Wind Energy Prediction Yubao Liu Reducing Wind Power Variability by Quantifying Geographic Diversity Length Scales Clara St. Martin 1150 – 1210 Proposing Enhanced Typical Meteorological Year for Concentrated-PV Systems Using Long-Term Datasets Philippe Blanc Application Study of Mesoscale Model and CFD for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Rong Zhu The Impact of Wind Farm Dispersion Across the Australian National Electricity Market on Wind Penetrations in Least-Cost 100% Renewable Electricity Scenarios Ben Elliston 1210 – 1230 Modeling Solar Irradiance and Solar PV Power Output to Create a Resource Dataset Using Linear Multiple Multivariate Regression Christopher Clack Spatial Optimization of an Ideal Renewable Energy System as an Response to Intermittency Sylvain Lassonde Toward High Penetration Levels of Wind Energy: Site Selection, Resource, and Production Modeling for Grid Interconnection Study Michael Brower 1230 – 1330 Lunch & team-based activities 1330 - 1510 Energy Resource Assessment (Solar Case Studies) Forecasting for Power-System Applications (Trading) Grid Integration and Smart Grids (Misc) 1330 – 1350 The Solar Atlas of Trentino (Italy): A Comparison of Available Solar Datasets for a Small Alpine Region Lavinia Laiti Computationally Efficient Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecasting Methods Dusanka Zupanski An Approach to Calculate the Financial Value of Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts for a Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Plant Edward Law 1350 – 1410 High-Resolution Solar Radiation Forecasting in Qatar with Support Vector Regression Antonio Sanfilippo Using Weather Scenarios for Generation Adequacy Studies : Example of a Probabilistic Approach for European Countries Cecile De Montureux Using Satellite Data for Power Flow Estimation of an Electrical Low Voltage Grid with a High Amount of Photovoltaic Systems Holger Ruf 1410 – 1430 Characterizing the Impacts of Environmental Conditions on Solar Energy Systems in the Middle East: Kuwait – A Case Study Bernard Walter Subseasonal Weather Forecasts for Trading Optimisation Kieran Lynch The Economics of Grid Integration of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Duo Shang 1430 – 1450 Optimising the Deployment of Renewable Energy Resources for the NEM and the Influence of Seasonality and Decorrelation Length Scales Robert Huva Calibration and Assessment of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for Renewable Energy Trading Across Europe Emma Suckling Downregulation Experiments at Horns Rev Gregor Giebel 1450 – 1510 Assessing Substitution and Mitigation Benefits of Wood-Based Products for Fossil Intensive Materials and Energy in Finnish Condition Ashraful Alam A Solar and Wind Integrated Forecast Tool (SWIFT) Designed for the Management of Renewable Energy Variability on Hawaiian Grid Systems John Zack Weather Intelligence for Renewable Urban Areas, Challenges, Gaps and Future Perspectives Anna Maria Sempreviva 1520 – 1600 Conclusions, Award Ceremony and Closing
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