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ICEM 2015 Final Program
Tuesday 23 – Friday 26 June 2015
This programme is subject to change
Tuesday, 23 June 2015
0800 – 1700
Registration Open
0850 – 0900
Conference Welcome and Opening
Dr Alberto Troccoli, ICEM 2015 Convener, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Grand Ballroom
0900 – 1130
Opening Plenary
Grand Ballroom
Ms Claude Nahon, Electricité De France (EDF), France
Mr David Grimes, Meteorological Service of Canada, Canada
Dr Alexander MacDonald, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, USA
Dr Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute, USA
1130 – 1150
Morning Break/Posters
1150 – 1330
Energy Resource Assessment
(Flow Modelling)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(Solar Short)
Century Room
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(Misc)
Millennium Room
1150 – 1210
Wind Flow Modeling: Are Computationally
Intensive Models More Accurate?
Philippe Beaucagent
Calibration of Short-Range Global Radiation
Ensemble Forecasts
Ben Bouallegue
Evaluation of Decomposition and Transposition
Models for Irradiance Data Conversion under
Hot Desert Climates
Arttu Tuomiranta
1210 – 1230
Wind Power Estimates from Numerical
Weather Models Using Rotor Equivalent Wind
Speed and the Full Power Equation
Christopher Clack
Very Short-Term Irradiations Forecasting Using
Fisheye Images
Charlotte Gauchet
Short-Term Forecasting of National PV
Production - Challenges Regarding the Solar
Eclipse 2015
Ruben Jubeh
1230 – 1250
3 Competing Approaches to Quantify
Changes in the Local Wind Climate Caused by
a Downstream Windfarm
Jesper Nissen
A Bayesian Approach to Statistical Short-Term
Solar Irradiance Forecasting
Tyler McCandless
How Does Relative Humidity Affect Electricity
Demand?
Ying Chen
1250 – 1310
Necessary Accuracy of Offshore Wind and
Turbulence Measurements for the
Improvement of Micrometeorological Models
Jens Tambke
Short-Term Irradiance Forecasts Using Cloud
Motion Vectors
Abhnil Prasad
Now-casting of Wind and PV for Traders
Roman Asper
1310 – 1330
Turbulent Wake Flow Characteristics
Investigated with LES
Björn Witha
Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecast Based on
Multi-TSI Network
Dantong Yu
Seasonal Forecasts of River Flow in France
Laurent Dubus
1330 - 1430
Lunch & team based activities
1430 - 1610
Energy Resource Assessment
(Analogs)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(Solar Short and Long)
Century Room
Energy Policy
(General)
Millennium Room
1430 – 1450
Support Vector Regression for Wind Resource
Assessment and Feature Identification
Thomas Dunstan
Retrieval of Direct and Diffuse Irradiance with
the Use of Hemispheric Sky Images
Detlev Heinemann
Effective Communication: A Fundamental
Requirement for a Sound Meteorology-Energy
Sector Relationship
Ian Muirhead
1450 – 1510
Matrix-Analog Measure-Correlate-Predict
Approach
David Hanslian
A New Cloud Identification Model and ShortTerm Irradiance Forecasting Method Using
Inexpensive Ground-Based Cameras
Samuel West
The National Energy with Weather System
(NEWS) Simulator Shows that up to an 80%
Reduction in Carbon Dioxide Emissions from
the US Electric Sector is Only Cost Effective at
Large Geographic Scale.
Christopher Clack
1510 – 1530
Computationally Efficient Dynamical
Downscaling with an Analog Ensemble:
Application to Wind Resource Assessment
Daran Rife
Soleksat, a Flexible Solar Irradiance Forecasting
Tool Using Satellite Images and Geographic
Web-Services
Sylvain Cros
Could Crop Roughness Impact the Wind
Resource at Agriculturally Productive Wind
Farm Sites?
Brian Vanderwende
1530 – 1550
Spatial and Time Complementarity of Future
Wind Energy Production Patterns over
Europe: Main Features and Consequences for
Transmission Grids.
Fabio Monforti-Ferrario
Urban Solar Irradiance and Power Prediction
from Nearby Stations
Alberto Troccoli
1550 – 1610
Validation of Annual Wind Energy Production
Estimates Using the WRF Model at 50 Wind
Farms
Mark Zagar
Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet
Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations
Adam Kankiewicz
1610 - 1630
Coffee Break/Posters
Energy Resource Assessment
(Wind Atlas)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(Solar Long Forecast)
Century Room
Energy Policy
(Specific)
Millennium Room
1630 – 1650
The Global Wind Atlas: The New Worldwide
Microscale Wind Resource Assessment Data
and Tools
Jake Badger
The SunCast Solar Power Forecasting System
Sue Haupt
Saudi Arabia’s Domestic Energy Situation and
Policy: Focusing on Demand Side Management
on Power Sector
Nabeel Alabbas
1650 – 1710
The Global Wind Resource Atlas: Comparison
of Downscaling from Atmospheric Reanalysis
and WRF Mesoscale Simulations
Andrea Hahmann
Towards Gridded Foundational Solar Forecast of
Enhanced Accuracy: Weather “Situation”
Dependent Forecast Error and Machine-Learnt
Multi-Model Blending
Siyuan Lu
Low-Carbon Electricity Transition in the Middle
East and North Africa: A De-Risking
Governance Approach
Luigi Caraf
1710 – 1730
WASA - A Wind and Stability Atlas Providing
Information on Long-Term Atmospheric
Conditions in the Southern North Sea
Björn Witha
Forecasting Solar Radiation with Online
Ensemble Learning
Jean Thorey
Net Metering – A Nearly-Zero and Zero-Net
Energy Building Policy Implemented in Cyprus
Rogiros D Tapakis
1730 – 1750
Complementary of Wind and Solar Energy
Resources over Europe: An Assessment
Study
Fabio Monforti-Ferrario
Short and Medium Term Solar Irradiance and
Power Forecasting Given High Penetration and a
Tropical Environment
Wilfred Walsh
Real Time Experiment of River Flow Seasonal
Forecasts in French Guiana: The Importance of
Communication and End-User Interaction
Laurent Dubus
1750 - 1810
Development of a Verified Numerical Wind
Atlas in South Africa
Christopher Lennard
A Comparison of Metrics for Evaluating Solar
Forecasts
Tara Jensen
1630 – 1810
1830 - 2100
Happy Hour and Official Launch of the “World Energy & Meteorology Council (WEMC)”
Tree Plaza, NCAR Mesa Lab
Wednesday, 24 June 2015
0800 – 1700
Registration Open
0900 - 1020
Plenary Session 1: World Experts - Business Focus
Grand Ballroom
Eric Stein, Statkraft, Germany
Dr Fabrizio Bizzarri, Ente nazionale per l’energia elettrica (ENEL), Italy
1020 – 1050
Morning Break/Posters
1050 – 1230
Energy Resource Assessment
(Off-Shore and Time Series)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(NWP Solar)
Century Room
Weather and Climate Risk Management
(Hydro and Wave)
Millennium Room
1050 – 1110
Case Study of Offshore Wind Resources
Assessment from Multiple Satellite Data and
WRF Modeling over China
Rui Chang
Assessment of Cloud Macroscopic Properties
Representation in the WRF NWP Model:
Implication for the Solar Radiation Forecasting
Reliability
David Pozo-Vazquez
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the
UK’s Wave Energy Resource
Atul Agarwal
1110 – 1130
Estimating the Power Characteristics of
Clusters of Large Offshore Wind Farms
Daniel Drew
Verification of Sectoral Cloud Motion Based
Global and Direct Normal Irradiance Nowcasting
Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt
The Impact of Climate Change on the UK Wave
Climate
Jamie Mitchell
1130 – 1150
Long-Term Variability of the Wind Speed Over
Land, in Coastal and in Marine Areas
Sven-Erik Gryning
WRF-Solar: An Augmented NWP Model for Solar
Power Prediction
Pedro Jimenez
Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower
Potential in Scotland
Gareth Harrison
1150 – 1210
Towards Next Generations of Wind Resource
Modeled Time-Series
Alex Montornes
Comparison of Irradiance Forecasts Based on
Numerical Weather Prediction for Central and
Northern Europe
Elke Lorenz
Assessment of Future Hydro Generation
Potential Under Climate Change Scenarios
Anderson Queiroz
1210 – 1230
Assessment of a 30 Year Onshore UK Wind
Dataset
Jessica Standen
A Community Gridded Atmospheric Forecast
System for Calibrated Solar Irradiance
David Gagne
Impact of Climate Change on Hydropower
Production: Environmental Challenges and
Management Issues
Shadananan Nai Krishnapillai
Ignite-Type Presentations (10 minutes each)
Energy Resource Assessment/Forecasting for
Power-System Applications
Grand Ballroom
Improving the Mapping and Prediction of
Offshore Wind Resources (IMPOWR):
Validation of Ensembles with Historical Field
Data
Cristina Archer
Energy Resource Assessment/Forecasting for
Power-System Applications
Century Room
Comparison of Satellite Estimated Hourly Solar
Data with Coincident Ground Based
Measurements and their Applications in Industry
and Commerce
Trevor Lee
1250 – 1300
Evaluation of the climatological wind speed
simulated by the WRF model over complex
terrain: a case study in Trentino (Italy)
Lorenzo Giovannini
Toward High Penetration Levels of Wind Energy:
Site Selection, Resource, and Production
Modeling for Grid Interconnection Study
Philippe Beaucage
1300 – 1310
Improvement of Wind Forecasting through
Analyzing and Filtering of Historical Data
Roman Asper
1310 – 1320
Wave Energy Resource Assessment Along
the French Coast for Future Climate:
Dynamical Versus Statistical Downscaling
Methods
Amélie Laugel
1240 – 1250
1320 – 1430
Lunch & team based activities
1430 - 1610
Energy Resource Assessment
(Resource Calculation National)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(NWP Solar)
Century Room
Weather and Climate Risk Management
(Climate Change)
Millennium Room
1430 – 1450
Improving Maryland’s Offshore Wind Energy
Resource Estimate Using Remote Sensing
Technology to Assess Meteorological
Controls
Alexandra St. Pe
A Hybrid Method for Short-Term Solar Radiation
Forecast Based on the Combination of WRF
Model Wind Forecast and MSG Cloud Estimates
David Pozo-Vazquez
Probabilistic Forecasts for Energy – Weeks to A
Century or More
John Dutton
1450 – 1510
Observations of Turbulence in the Wind
Turbine Layer from Wind Profiling Radars
Katherine McCaffrey
Validation of Operational NWP Forecasts for
Global, Diffuse and Direct Solar Exposure over
Australia
Lawrie Rikus
Climate Service Development for the Energy
Sector: The Example of EUPORIAS
Carlo Buontempo
1510 – 1530
Boundary Layer Wind and Turbulence
Features from Offshore Lidar Measurements
Yelena Pichugina
On the use of NWP for Cloud Base Height
Estimation in Cloud Camera-Based Solar
Irradiance Nowcasting
Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on
European Solar Photovoltaic and Wind Energy
Using a Multi-Model Ensemble of HighResolution Climate Projections
Isabelle Tobin
Accurate Measurement of Wind-Properties
Through the Turbine Rotor Layer for Wind
Energy Using High-Resolution Doppler Lidar
Robert Banta
Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using TSI Cloud
Tracking and Numerical Weather Prediction
Jin Xu
Climatological Relationships Between Wind and
Solar Energy Supply in Britain
Philip Bett
Viability of Wind as Energy Source in Five
Cities of Southwestern Nigeria
Nnawuike Nze-Esiaga
A Multi-Dimensional Criteria Algorithm for Cloud
Detection in the Circumsolar Area
Rogiros D Tapakis
Understanding the Impacts of Climate Variability
and Climate Change on a Weather Dependent
UK Power System
Hannah Bloomfield
1530 – 1550
1550 – 1610
1610 – 1630
Coffee Break/Posters
1630 - 1810
Town Hall Meeting - The reality of 100% renewables and what is required of Meteorology
Chair: Dr Dave Renne', International Solar Energy Society (ISES)
Panelists: TBC
Century Room
1930 – 2330
Conference Dinner
Thursday, 25 June 2015
0800 – 1700
Registration Open
0900 – 1020
Plenary 2: World experts - Policy focus
Grand Ballroom
Dr Mike Robinson, DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy Wind and Water Power Program, USA
Prof Wang Zhongying, Energy Research Institute of NDRC, China
1020 – 1050
Morning Break/Posters
1050 – 1230
Energy Resource Assessment
(Solar Validation)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(Aerosols)
Century Room
1050 – 1110
Global Validation of the REST2 Direct
Irradiance Model
Gwendalyn Bender
Assimilation-Based Aerosol Forecasting at Dust
Sites with a Chemical Transport Model
Charlotte Hoppe
1110 – 1130
Critical Analysis of the use of the CentralLimit-Theorem (CLT) in P90 Meteorological
Scenarios for Solar-Powered Plants
Philippe Blanc
Attenuation of Solar Irradiance and PV Power by
Smoke Aerosol and Cloud Events
Matthew Perry
1130 – 1150
Modelling Beam Attenuation in Solar Tower
Plants Using Common DNI Measurements
Natalie Hanrieder
Atmospheric Composition Modeling over the
Arabian Peninsula for Solar Photovoltaic
Applications
Naseema Shyju
Identifying & Quantifying the Risk of Weather on
Wind Generation
Russell Bigley
1150 – 1210
Towards an Operational Method for
Estimating the Photosynthetically Active
Radiation in Clear‑Sky Conditions over the
Earth’s Surface
William Wandji
Aerosol Data Assimilation to Evaluate WRF
Physics Ensembles for Solar Forecasts
Surya Karthik Mukkavilli
Objective Identification of Critical Weather
Events for Ensuring Net Stability
Andrea Steiner
1210 – 1230
A Fast Radiative Transfer Model for Solar
Resource Assessment and Forecasting
Yu Xie
Data Analytics for Solar Energy Management
Lipyeow Lim
1230 – 1330
1330 - 1510
1330 – 1350
1350 – 1410
1410 – 1430
Weather and Climate Risk Management
(Risk and Climate)
Millennium Room
An Integrated Approach for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts on the European Electricity
Sector
Isabelle Tobin
The Contribution of Renewable Electricity
Production During Peak Energy Demand Events
in Great Britain (GB)
Hazel Thornton
Lunch & team-based activities
Energy Resource Assessment
(Solar Accuracy)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(Forecast Errors)
Century Room
Weather and Climate Risk Management
(Misc)
Millennium Room
Improving the Accuracy of Satellite Irradiance
Estimates by Combining with Downscaled
Reanalysis
Robert Davy
Accuracy Impact of the Spectral Resolution of
Radiative Transfer Models on Clear-Sky
Surface Irradiance Predictions Under Variable
Aerosol Conditions
Chris Gueymard
The Importance of Wind Forecast Errors for
Integrating Offshore Wind Power into the
Electric Grid
Cristina Archer
Weather Intelligence for Wind Energy –
WILL4WIND
Kristian Horvath
A Weather-Readiness Assessment Model to
Determine the Resilience of Utilities to Deal with
Weather Volatility
Shylesh Muralidharan
Using Weather Scenarios for Generation
Adequacy Studies : Example of a Probabilistic
Approach for European Countries
Cecile De Montureux
Comparison of Various Wind Power Bias
Correction Techniques
Gerald van der Grijn
Overview of Lightning Observations at Wind
Farms in the Central United States
Martin Murphy
Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data
Using a Guide to the Expression of
Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) Method
Aron Habte
1430 – 1450
Characterizing the Uncertainties of a LI-COR
1800 Spectroradiometer
Josh Peterson
Statistical Methods for the Development of
Skillful Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasts
Lueder von Bremen
Climate Change Impacts on Hydal Projects With
respect to Glacial lake: Case of Nepal
Navaraj Pokharel
1450 – 1510
How Does the Temporal Resolution of AOD
Affect the Accuracy of Clear-Sky DNI
Predictions? A Monte-Carlo Approach Using
AERONET Observations
Jose Ruiz-Arias
Computationally Efficient Ensemble Data
Assimilation and Forecasting Methods
Dusanka Zupanski
An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building
Climate Zone Change and Variability from the
Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA’s
MERRA and CMIP5 Climate Model Simulations
Paul Stackhouse Jr
1510 – 1520
Coffee Break
1520 – 1700
Panels Session/Special Event “How can the Global Framework for Climate Services better serve Energy?”
Chair: Maxx Dilley, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Switzerland
Confirmed Panelists:
 Carlo Buontempo, UK Meteorological Office, UK
Grand Ballroom
1710 – 1850
Energy Resource Assessment
(Solar Comparison)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(NWP and Analogs)
Century Room
Environmental Impact of Energy Systems
(Impact)
Millennium Room
1710 – 1730
Comparison Between Estimates of the
Surface Downwelling Solar Irradiances under
Cloud-Free Skies Extracted from the McClear
and HelioClim-3 Services over Egypt
Yehia Eissa
The Analog Ensemble for Renewable Energy
Applications: An Overview
Luca Delle Monache
Potential Impacts of Solar Arrays on Regional
Climate and on Array Efficiency
Alberto Troccoli
1730 – 1750
Investigation of DNI-cloud Connections Using
Satellite Data
Abhnil Prasad
A Probabilistic Load Forecast System Based on
the Analog Ensemble Method
Stefano Alessandrini
Environmental Implications of Energy Systems
in Developing Countries
Yohannes Haile
1750 – 1810
Preliminary Results on Modelling the
Monochromatic Beam and Circumsolar
Radiation under Cloud-Free Conditions in
Desert Environment
Yehia Eissa
ECMWF Global Medium-Range Ensemble
Weather Forecasts for the Energy Sector:
Products and Performance
David Richardson
Wind Turbine Wake Variations with Atmospheric
Stability as Measured in CWEX-11
Joseph Lee
1810 – 1830
Irradiance Modeling Using SBDART on Clear
and Cloudy Conditions: Sensitivity to Cloud
Microphysics
Naseema Shyju
Optimizing the Physics of the COSMO-DE
Ensemble Towards Renewable Energies
Jonas von Schumann
Lake Erie Wind Farms: Some Preliminary
Modelling Using COHERENS
Soudeh Afsharian
1830 – 1850
Alternative Method for Characterizing
Photodiode Pyranometers for Rotating
Shadowband Irradiometers
Josh Peterson
Comprehensive Forecasting System for Variable
Renewable Energy
Branko Kosovic
Impact of Climate Change on Power Plants
Cooling Systems
Mathieu Anderhalt
Friday, 26 June 2015
0800 – 1700
Registration Open
0900 - 1020
Plenary Session 3: World experts - R&D Focus
Grand Ballroom
Dr René Roy, Ouranos, Canada
Dr Prashant Goswami, Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India
1020 – 1050
Morning Break/Posters
1050 – 1230
Energy Resource Assessment
(Solar Atlas and Maps)
Grand Ballroom
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(NWP Wind)
Century Room
Grid Integration and Smart Grids
(Main)
Millennium Room
1050 – 1110
Cloud Shadow Maps from Whole Sky
Daniel Oberländer
Numerical Model Setup and Performance
Evaluation for Wind Forecast in Northeastern
Region of Brazil
Fernando Martins
Optimization of Distributed Energy Storage
Sizing and Siting in Distribution Networks
Oytun Babacan
1110 – 1130
Introducing the Gridded National Solar
Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) Using a
Physical Model Output
Manajit Sengupta
Using Ensemble NWP Wind Power Forecasts to
Improve Power System Management
Dirk Cannon
Analysis of 100% Renewable Power Systems:
Deployment Strategies and Efficient Feed-In
Monitoring
Lueder von Bremen
1130 – 1150
The Development of a Long-term, Continually
Updated Global Solar Resource at 10 km
Resolution: Preliminary Results From Test
Processing and Continuing Plans
Paul Stackhouse Jr
Data Assimilation, Ensemble NWP and PostProcessing Technologies for Wind Energy
Prediction
Yubao Liu
Reducing Wind Power Variability by Quantifying
Geographic Diversity Length Scales
Mark Handschy
1150 – 1210
Proposing Enhanced Typical Meteorological
Year for Concentrated-PV Systems Using
Long-Term Datasets
Philippe Blanc
Application Study of Mesoscale Model and CFD
for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting
Rong Zhu
The Impact of Wind Farm Dispersion Across the
Australian National Electricity Market on Wind
Penetrations in Least-Cost 100% Renewable
Electricity Scenarios
Ben Elliston
1210 – 1230
Modeling Solar Irradiance and Solar PV Power
Output to Create a Resource Dataset Using
Linear Multiple Multivariate Regression
Christopher Clack
Spatial Optimization of an Ideal Renewable
Energy System as an Response to Intermittency
Sylvain Lassonde
1230 – 1330
Lunch & team-based activities
1330 - 1510
Energy Resource Assessment
(Solar Case Studies)
Grand Ballroom
1330 – 1350
The Solar Atlas of Trentino (Italy): A
Comparison of Available Solar Datasets for a
Small Alpine Region
Lavinia Laiti
Forecasting for Power-System Applications
(Trading)
Century Room
Using Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations to
Estimate Spatial Coherence and Power Spectral
Density of a Major Hurricane for Wind Turbine
Design Applications
Rochelle Worsnop
Grid Integration and Smart Grids
(Misc)
Millennium Room
An Approach to Calculate the Financial Value of
Direct Normal Irradiance Forecasts for a
Concentrated Solar Thermal Power Plant
Edward Law
1350 – 1410
High-Resolution Solar Radiation Forecasting
in Qatar with Support Vector Regression
Antonio Sanfilippo
Advancements in Wind Integration Study Input
Data Modeling: The Wind Integration National
Dataset (WIND) Toolkit
Andrew Clifton
Using Satellite Data for Power Flow Estimation
of an Electrical Low Voltage Grid with a High
Amount of Photovoltaic Systems
Holger Ruf
1410 – 1430
Characterizing the Impacts of Environmental
Conditions on Solar Energy Systems in the
Middle East: Kuwait – A Case Study
Bernard Walter
Subseasonal Weather Forecasts for Trading
Optimisation
Kieran Lynch
The Economics of Grid Integration of Plug-in
Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Duo Shang
1430 – 1450
Optimising the Deployment of Renewable
Energy Resources for the NEM and the
Influence of Seasonality and Decorrelation
Length Scales
Robert Huva
Calibration and Assessment of Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts for Renewable Energy
Trading Across Europe
Emma Suckling
Downregulation Experiments at Horns Rev
Gregor Giebel
1450 – 1510
Assessing Substitution and Mitigation
Benefits of Wood-Based Products for Fossil
Intensive Materials and Energy in Finnish
Condition
Ashraful Alam
A Solar and Wind Integrated Forecast Tool
(SWIFT) Designed for the Management of
Renewable Energy Variability on Hawaiian Grid
Systems
John Zack
Weather Intelligence for Renewable Urban
Areas, Challenges, Gaps and Future
Perspectives
Anna Maria Sempreviva
Conclusions
 Ms Hazel Thornton, UK Meteorological Office, UK
 Other speakers TBC
1520 – 1600
Award Ceremony
Closing
Dr Alberto Troccoli, ICEM 2015 Convener, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Grand Ballroom