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Energy Efficiency Benefits in Implementing Low Global
Warming Potential Refrigerants in Air Conditioning
Some Preliminary Results
Nihar Shah, PhD, PE
Max Wei, PhD, MBA
Amol Phadke, PhD
April 23, 2015
Outline
•
•
•
•
Motivation and Recent Trends
Methodology and Assumptions
Preliminary Results
Summary, next steps, discussion
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High Cooling Energy Consumption in Largest Metros
4500
4000
Madras
3500
Jakarta (13.2M)
3000
Cooling 2500
Degree
Days 2000
Mumbai (18.2M)
Bubble size indicates population
Calcutta
Delhi
Miami
Rio de Janeiro
Guangzhou
Shenzhen
Osaka Shanghai
1500
Sao Paulo
1000
Tokyo
Beijing
Seoul
500
0
Source: Sivak, 2009
Many of the world’s most populous metropolitan areas have hot climates
Example of High Growth—China
Ownership:
Number of Units per 100 Urban Households
140
India
2011
120
Color TVs
100
Clothes Washers
80
60
Refrigerators
40
Room Air Conditioners
20
0
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
Source: NSSO, 2012, Fridley et al., 2012
•
The AC ownership rate in urban China went from almost 0% in 1990s to over
100% in ~15 years.
•
AC sales in major emerging economies are growing at rates similar to China
circa 1994‒1995, e.g., India room AC sales growing at ~10-15%/year, Brazil
at ~20%/year (Shah et al., 2013).
Growth in Renewable Generation and Cooling Energy, 2010‒2020
800
600
400
200
0
Solar CSP
Solar PV
Wind
Increase in electricity
use from residential
air conditioners
1000
Increase in solar and wind generation
Additional RE Generation and Room AC Consumption
(2010-2020) TWh/year
1200
T&D Losses
United States
India
Indonesia
Japan
Mexico
European Union
China
Brazil
Australia
Renewable energy generation: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 (Current Policies scenario).
Residential air conditioning consumption: Shah et al. (2013); LBNL’s Room AC analysis for the SEAD
initiative; and V. Letschert et al. (2012), LBNL’s BUENAS model.
Incremental electricity consumption from residential ACs alone is >50% of solar
and wind generation projected to be added between 2010 and 2020.
Cooling has a Significant Peak Load Impact
DELHI
~1600 MW
(40%)
~2200 MW
(60%)
Source: DSLDC, 2012
Ausgrid, Australia
Source: Smith et al., 2013
Cooling comprises 40%‒60% of summer
…and can triple load on the
peak load in large metropolitan cities
hottest days in some areas,
with hot climates, such as Delhi, India …
e.g., New South Wales, Australia.
Control of CO2 and HFC emissions needed
Source: Hu et al, 2013, Nature Climate Change
Is there a win-win opportunity to reduce both CO2 and
HFC emissions in air conditioning?
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Outline
•
•
•
•
Motivation and Recent Trends
Methodology and Assumptions
Preliminary Results
Summary, next steps, discussion
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Structure of Model
Total Emissions
Reduction Potential
from Refrigerant
Transition Only
Total Emissions
Reduction Potential
from Efficiency
Improvement Only
Market Data: Sales,
Growth Rates,
Lifetimes
Total
Emissions
Reduction
Potential
Efficiency Results from
the Superefficient
Equipment and
Appliance Deployment
Initiative (SEAD)
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Structure of Model
GWP: Global Warming Potential
AREP: Air-conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) Low Global Warming Potential (GWP)
Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program (AREP)
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AHRI Low-GWP Alternate Refrigerant Evaluation Program
(AREP) Phase 1(2012-2014) & Phase 2 (ongoing)
Source: AHRI, 2014
• Voluntary co-operative research and testing program to identify
suitable alternatives to high-GWP refrigerants.
• Standard reporting format for candidate refrigerants strongly
desired by industry.
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Significant efficiency improvement potential
AC models of one brand on Korean Market
3,000
2,500
Price (USD, 1 USD = 1,100 KRW)
2,000
1,500
1,000
42%
500
55%
0
0
1
2
3
4
CSPF
5
6
7
8
Source: KEMCO, 2015
Efficiency improvement of ~40% is commercially possible today!
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Falling Prices
Source: Kimura 2010 and Shibata, 2012
Source: OEA, 2013
Japan
India
AC prices continue to fall globally, even when efficiency
improvement policies are implemented.
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Outline
•
•
•
•
Motivation and Recent Trends
Methodology and Assumptions
Preliminary Results
Summary, next steps, discussion
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Preliminary Results – Global Lifetime
Emissions Reduction in 2030
25
20
15
10
Lifetime Emissions
Abatement 5
Potential in 2030
(GT CO2e)
0
-5
Direct Emissions
Abatement from
Refrigerant
Transition
Indirect Emissions
Abatement from
Refrigerant
Transition
Indirect Emissions
Abatement from
Efficiency
Improvement
Ref
Efficiency Transition
Brazil
12%
88%
19%
81%
Chile
56%
44%
China
30%
70%
Colombia
34%
66%
Egypt
India
64%
36%
55%
45%
Indonesia
35%
65%
Mexico
43%
57%
S. Arabia
68%
32%
Thailand
United
Arab
Emirates
Vietnam
Pakistan
Average
47%
66%
41%
55%
53%
34%
59%
45%
-10
• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition roughly
doubles the emissions benefit of either policy undertaken in isolation.
• Countries with higher hours of use or a more carbon-intensive grid
benefit more from efficiency.
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Preliminary Results – Reduction in 2030 Peak Load
(GW)
China
India
Brazil
Indonesia
Vietnam
Pakistan
Thailand
S. Arabia
Colombia
Mexico
Egypt
United Arab
Emirates
Chile
Global
Ref
Efficiency Transition
318.0
39.75
65.2
8.15
58.8
7.35
40.0
5.00
31.7
3.97
8.6
1.08
7.8
0.98
7.0
0.87
6.1
0.76
2.0
0.26
1.5
0.19
1.0
0.3
851
0.12
0.04
106
• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition has a
significant peak load reduction potential.
• Countries with higher hours of use, and larger AC markets show more
peak load reduction.
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Outline
•
•
•
•
Motivation and Recent Trends
Methodology and Assumptions
Preliminary Results
Summary, next steps, discussion
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Summary and Next Steps
• Trends show large scale impact of air conditioning on electricity
generation and peak load, particularly in hot climates and populous
countries.
• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition
roughly doubles the emissions impact rather than either policy
implemented in isolation.
• Countries with higher hours of use benefit more from efficiency.
• Efficiency improvement of ACs along with refrigerant transition shows
significant peak load reduction.
• Next steps: - Incorporate results from ongoing high ambient temperature testing.
- Improve market, sales, growth forecast assumptions by incorporating
saturation, diffusion models of appliance uptake.
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Questions, Suggestions?
Contact:
Nihar Shah
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
[email protected]
(510) 486 7553
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