Living with the Drone
Revolution
Nicholas Roy
March 25, 2015
“UAV”… Let me Google that for you…
But click the “shopping” tab…
What’s changed?
 Low-cost, high-power micro-electronics
 Low-cost, high-power computation
 Low-cost, high-energy-density batteries
Consumer Market
• DJI
•
•
Founded in 2006
In 2013, $131M in revenue
http://www.wsj.com/articles/who‐builds‐the‐worlds‐most‐popular‐drones‐1415645659
Photo credit: http://dronelifestyle.com
Consumer Market
• Parrot
•
•
•
Founded in 1996
In 2013, 42.1€ in revenue
607,000 units sold between 2010 and 2013
http://milesgrimshaw.com/data‐drone‐market/
Photo credit: http://roboshop.lt/
Consumer Market
• In 2012, Parrot bought SenseFly
•
•
•
Founded in 2009
In first-half 2013, 2.1€ in revenue
200 units sold
http://milesgrimshaw.com/data‐drone‐market/
Photo credit: http://www.4erevolution.com
Consumer Market
• 3D Robotics
•
•
•
Founded in 2009
Sells about 3000 units/month
As of mid-2013, had sold 30K units
http://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/aviation/chris‐andersons‐expanding‐drone‐empire
Photo credit: http://3drobotics.com/
http://www.gomcmag.com/editorial/
2013/04/flight_inspection
http://www.mikrokopter.de/en/home
http://air360.co.uk/index.html
Commercial Market
Potential Markets
http://precisionagricultu.re/full‐drone‐service‐for‐agriculture‐in‐u‐s‐canada/
http://blog.skycatch.com/page/2/
Delivery
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Market Sizes
Remote Sensing: $12B by 2019
Precision Agriculture: $9B by 2025
Same-day e-commerce: $4B by 2018
Urgent documents? Food?
http://www.sparpointgroup.com/news/lidar/global‐remote‐sensing‐market‐to‐hit‐121‐billion‐by‐2019
http://www.infoag.org/abstract_papers/papers/abstract_214.pdf
http://www.businessinsider.com/e‐commerce‐and‐same‐day‐delivery‐2014‐9
http://www.ieee.org/societies_communities/geo_activities/sections_congress/2014/sc2014_ignite_solve_for_x_technology_moonshots.pdf
Self-driving car
Project Wing – The Moonshot
Although the transmission of information has been
revolutionized in the past decade, the movement of
physical objects has remained largely the same.
Self-flying vehicles can become a next generation
platform to enable rapid and safe delivery of goods
you want/need on demand.
http://youtu.be/cRTNvWcx9Oo
Opportunities and Challenges for
Civilian and Commercial UAS
Safety and Reliability
US Secret Service via NPR.org
Commercial Market
• Microdrones
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•
Founded in 2005
Has sold 1000 units
http://www.microdrones.com/en/company/profile/
Commercial Market
In 8 years of sales, 1000 vehicles sold
http://www.microdrones.com/en/company/profile/
http://www.precisionag.com/equipment/flight‐plan‐for‐uavs/
http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=sec&sid1=102&oid=003&aid=0002804520
Energy Consumption
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=9991
Delivery
Takeoff and Landing Site
Delivery
Location
Photo credit: Vienna Tourist Board, http://www.flickr.com
The V/STOL Wheel of Misfortune
Michael Hirschberg, CENTRA
http://transition‐robotics.com/collections/quadshots http://discovermagazine.com/2010/dec/
08‐is‐coal‐killer‐flying‐thousands‐feet‐in‐sky
U.S. Navy and U.S. Federal Government
http://mlbuav.com/
The Delivery Spectrum
Drop the
Package
Ballistically
Land the
Entire
Vehicle
Landing the Vehicle
Photo credit: Helmut Gulgo https://www.flickr.com/photos/paldies/7310883864
Feasibility in the Urban
Environment
Feasibility in the Urban
Environment
Operator Cost
Photo credit: Steve Bain https://www.flickr.com/photos/paldies/7310883864
Autonomy
GPS-Denied Navigation
http://youtu.be/kYs215TgI7c
Detect-and-Avoid
Short-term: non-militarygrade ground radar
Long-term: airborne radar
within SWaP requirements
.15cm
3.5cm
Wing vehicle
Photo credit: Vienna Tourist Board, http://www.flickr.com
PrimeAir vehicle
4.5cm
Jam et al., 2014
Unmanned Traffic Management
Environmental Effects
Oke, 1988
Reduce Energy Consumption
 Easterly Wind Heading with 10m/s at 100m
 Wind planner uses urban canyons for shelter
Naïve Planner
Wind Planner
Communications
http://www.nasa.gov/centers/glenn/technology/uav.html#.VRAf9‐GxVR5
Total Cost of Ownership
Vehicle cost: relatively low
3 big TCO problems:
 Ground station operator costs
 Battery costs
 Back-end infrastructure
Thank you!