Quantum leap in Renewable - Wind and Solar
Quantum leap in Renewable - Wind and Solar “For President Obama and me, clean and renewable energy is a personal and national priority” - Mr. Narendra Modi at press conference during Mr. Barak Obama’s India visit Strictly private and confidential Renewable energy in India - Total installed capacity of renewable energy in India is 35 GW (including off-grid) - Renewable energy accounts for 12.4% of total grid connected installed power capacity of 256 GW - At 22.5 GW, wind energy accounts for a majority of the renewable energy installed capacity - Renewable energy contribution to power generation is only 4.7% (Average PLF of installed capacity in India is 65.6% for 9 months of FY15, taking average renewable PLF of 25%) 2 India should target 15% electricity generation from renewables by 2022. Power Sector Imperative Setting new targets for India for the next 08 Years Of the incremental power capacity addition, Renewable energy (RE) share should be at least 55% Renewables Target Target for Renewables share at 33% of cumulative power capacity by the end of next 08 years Renewables generation by then should be aimed at 15% in the power basket 08 year addition 2022 Capacity Total(GW) 256 240 500 Capacity Renewables (GW) 34 130 165 Renewables Capacity Share (%) 13% 50% 33% Renewables Generation Share (%) 6.8% - Globally renewable energy has increased exponentially. - Among renewables, wind and solar have the highest growth rates - For the required Quantum leap in power generation fastest capacity installed ramp up can be achieved by Wind and Solar 3 2014 - China added 80 GW of Wind from 10GW in 2008 to 90GW in 2013 - Germany added 15 GW of Solar from 2009 to 2011 15% - Starting with 8 GW/yr and increasing with 15% CAGR. - We need to add 240 GW to reach our target of 500 GW Solar Power - Solar power has seen exponential capacity additions in last few years - Although Germany has led the way with about 25 GW of installed capacity, China has been the fastest growing - India has been a laggard and picked up pace only in last 3 years with present installed capacity of 3 GW. - Solar PV has slowly become the dominant technology with steady decline in prices - CSP (Concentrated Solar Thermal) although gained initial traction in India but recently has lost momentum 4 Renewables 2014 – Global Status Report – REN21 Solar in India - India has renewed its Solar capacity target to 100GW by 2022 - India is endowed with very good solar potential - Most regions receive upto 300 sunny days in a year - National institute of solar studies estimated India’s solar potential at 750GW - Solar farm has the fastest project commissioning among different power plants. - With reduction in PV module costs and expected grid parity by 2019, it is the obvious choice for the required quantum leap 5 100 GW by 2022 Achieving the quantum leap in Solar 5 MW - 100 MW solar projects Presently this has provided the majority of solar installations Solar Parks and Ultra mega projects( ~500MW and larger) Every state with potential can plan 2-3 such plants. Part of next JNNSM phase Small Distributed Installations Rooftop – Can be a game changer in Solar. With right ecosystem and learning from international cases, each rooftop can be a power generator. - Distributed /Rooftop could be game changer if government can de-risk it for small players. An ecosystem for solar leasing can sprout companies like Solacity, Sunrun or Sungevity in India - Most state based utility scale solar bids have high risks in their bidding conditions. E.g. Timelines related to open access permission. Such bidding guidelines should be centrally administered 6 Wind power 7 - Wind power has been the in use for decades. It has also led renewables in power generation. - China and US are the largest wind portfolio with China closing to 100 GW - Wind energy is most commercially viable renewable technology and presently more competitive than Solar - Wind projects are mostly limited to good wind locations, although with advancement of technology and larger machines, sites which were previously unviable can be taken up Renewables 2014 – Global Status Report – REN21 Wind power in India - Cumulative wind power installation Indian was one of early adopters and has done considerably well being the fifth largest wind producer in world. Still the growth is not comparable to the exponential Chinese additions 100 90 80 - - 8 Wind power ecosystem is mature in India with mix of domestic and international project developers and turbine suppliers Again India is endowed with good wind resource with almost 100GW installable potential at 80m hub height. This can be even more at higher hub height. Target for 10 GW/yr of wind target would require a quantum leap in wind installations 70 In GW - 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 year China India Drivers for 10 GW per year Achieving the quantum leap in Wind State FIT projects - Presently this has provided the majority of wind installations where wind power is purchased by state Discoms Green Corridor PGCIL corridor to evacuate renewable power would open possibilities from good wind locations where evacuation was constraint Offshore Wind With a huge coast line the estimated offshore wind energy capacity is 350 GW. Plan for 1GW by 2020. Although offshore wind is still in its infancy in India it could well be the game changer and future of wind in India. - Land acquisition remains biggest hurdle. New policy would help in private land acquisition. Revenue/Forest land allocation should also have 3-6 month timeline to expedite project execution. - Since resource is location based and concentrated in 4-5 states, inter-state transmission and open- access should be timely & with zero charges for wind - Centrally administered all India FIT for wind can also an option. Tariff can be based on wind resource for optimal wind resource use in country. State purchasers can buy at pooled price. 9 Renewable energy leap - other benefits - 10 Quantum leap in renewable energy would not only boost India’s generation capacity in a short time, but also have other impacts such as: - Contribute to lower carbon emissions and reducing global warming - Distributed generation would give access to electricity to a large section of people not presently covered - Create employment – wind energy is the highest creator of employment per MW of installation.
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