Quantum leap in Renewable
- Wind and Solar
“For President Obama and me, clean and renewable energy is a personal and national priority”
- Mr. Narendra Modi at press conference during Mr. Barak Obama’s India visit
Strictly private and confidential
Renewable energy in India
-
Total installed capacity of renewable energy in India is 35 GW (including off-grid)
-
Renewable energy accounts for 12.4% of total grid connected installed power capacity of 256 GW
-
At 22.5 GW, wind energy accounts for a majority of the renewable energy installed capacity
-
Renewable energy contribution to power generation is only 4.7% (Average PLF of installed
capacity in India is 65.6% for 9 months of FY15, taking average renewable PLF of 25%)
2
India should target 15% electricity generation from renewables by 2022.
Power Sector Imperative
Setting new targets for India for the next 08 Years
Of the incremental
power capacity
addition, Renewable
energy (RE) share
should be at least
55%
Renewables
Target
Target for
Renewables share at
33% of cumulative
power capacity by
the end of next 08
years
Renewables
generation by then
should be aimed at
15% in the power
basket
08 year
addition
2022
Capacity
Total(GW)
256
240
500
Capacity
Renewables
(GW)
34
130
165
Renewables
Capacity
Share (%)
13%
50%
33%
Renewables
Generation
Share (%)
6.8%
-
Globally renewable energy has increased exponentially.
- Among renewables, wind and solar have the highest growth rates
-
For the required Quantum leap in power generation fastest capacity
installed ramp up can be achieved by Wind and Solar
3
2014
-
China added 80 GW of Wind from 10GW in 2008 to 90GW in 2013
-
Germany added 15 GW of Solar from 2009 to 2011
15%
- Starting with 8 GW/yr and
increasing with 15% CAGR.
- We need to add 240 GW to
reach our target of 500 GW
Solar Power
-
Solar power has seen exponential
capacity additions in last few years
-
Although Germany has led the way
with about 25 GW of installed
capacity, China has been the fastest
growing
-
India has been a laggard and picked
up pace only in last 3 years with
present installed capacity of 3 GW.
-
Solar PV has slowly become the
dominant technology with steady
decline in prices
-
CSP (Concentrated Solar Thermal)
although gained initial traction in
India but recently has lost
momentum
4
Renewables 2014 – Global Status Report – REN21
Solar in India
-
India has renewed its Solar
capacity target to 100GW by 2022
-
India is endowed with very good
solar potential
-
Most regions receive upto 300
sunny days in a year
-
National institute of solar
studies estimated India’s solar
potential at 750GW
-
Solar farm has the fastest project
commissioning among different
power plants.
-
With reduction in PV module costs
and expected grid parity by 2019, it
is the obvious choice for the
required quantum leap
5
100 GW by 2022
Achieving the quantum leap in Solar
5 MW - 100 MW solar projects
Presently this has provided the
majority of solar installations
Solar Parks and Ultra mega
projects( ~500MW and larger)
Every state with potential can
plan 2-3 such plants.
Part of next JNNSM phase
Small Distributed Installations
Rooftop – Can be a game
changer in Solar. With right
ecosystem and learning from
international cases, each rooftop
can be a power generator.
- Distributed /Rooftop could be game changer if government can de-risk it for small players. An ecosystem for
solar leasing can sprout companies like Solacity, Sunrun or Sungevity in India
- Most state based utility scale solar bids have high risks in their bidding conditions. E.g. Timelines related to
open access permission. Such bidding guidelines should be centrally administered
6
Wind power
7
-
Wind power has been the in use
for decades. It has also led
renewables in power generation.
-
China and US are the largest wind
portfolio with China closing to 100
GW
-
Wind energy is most commercially
viable renewable technology and
presently more competitive than
Solar
-
Wind projects are mostly limited to
good wind locations, although with
advancement of technology and
larger machines, sites which were
previously unviable can be taken
up
Renewables 2014 – Global Status Report – REN21
Wind power in India
-
Cumulative wind power
installation
Indian was one of early adopters and
has done considerably well being the
fifth largest wind producer in world. Still
the growth is not comparable to the
exponential Chinese additions
100
90
80
-
-
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Wind power ecosystem is mature in
India with mix of domestic and
international project developers and
turbine suppliers
Again India is endowed with good wind
resource with almost 100GW installable
potential at 80m hub height. This can
be even more at higher hub height.
Target for 10 GW/yr of wind target
would require a quantum leap in wind
installations
70
In GW
-
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
year
China
India
Drivers for 10 GW per year
Achieving the quantum leap in Wind
State FIT projects
- Presently this has provided the majority of wind
installations where wind power is purchased by
state Discoms
Green Corridor
PGCIL corridor to evacuate renewable power
would open possibilities from good wind
locations where evacuation was constraint
Offshore Wind
With a huge coast line the estimated offshore
wind energy capacity is 350 GW. Plan for 1GW
by 2020.
Although offshore wind is still in its infancy in
India it could well be the game changer and
future of wind in India.
- Land acquisition remains biggest hurdle. New policy would help in private land acquisition. Revenue/Forest
land allocation should also have 3-6 month timeline to expedite project execution.
- Since resource is location based and concentrated in 4-5 states, inter-state transmission and open- access
should be timely & with zero charges for wind
- Centrally administered all India FIT for wind can also an option. Tariff can be based on wind resource for
optimal wind resource use in country. State purchasers can buy at pooled price.
9
Renewable energy leap - other benefits
-
10
Quantum leap in renewable
energy would not only boost
India’s generation capacity in a
short time, but also have other
impacts such as:
-
Contribute to lower
carbon emissions and
reducing global warming
-
Distributed generation
would give access to
electricity to a large
section of people not
presently covered
-
Create employment –
wind energy is the highest
creator of employment
per MW of installation.