PREPARING
FOR 2016
PART 1
DRIVING VOTER ACTIVITY THROUGH ADVERTISING IN SWING STATES
As political operatives and strategists begin mobilizing for the upcoming 2016
Presidential election, the Rocket Fuel Research Team is taking a keen interest in
the digital footprint left by voters, and their response to digital advertising. Most
current digital political research focuses on the effectiveness of “Get Out The Vote”
campaigns, while largely ignoring the impact of persuasion messaging (that is,
persuading people to vote in a particular way).
This piece looks at voters’ broader digital behavior and their responses to digital
marketing. Recently, the team examined the attitudes of voters and collected data
based on a study of registered voters in five key swing states. It revealed some
methods for swaying voter intent before their ballot is cast.
METHODOLOGY
For this study, Rocket Fuel conducted a survey of 2,832 registered
voters in five swing states in which Rocket Fuel delivered media
prior to the 2014 midterm elections. These states were Colorado,
Florida, Illinois, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. The survey
included a mix of voters (n = 2,479) and non-voters (n = 299) in
the 2014 midterm elections, and queried these people on voting
frequency, voting method, media recall, political issues, and
political affiliations. The study also identified a subsegment called
“lapsed voter” (n = 54), which consisted of individuals who voted
in 2008 or 2010, but not in the two most recent U.S. elections.
HIGHLIGHTS
THE EFFECT OF DIGITAL
POLITICAL MARKETING:
• 36% of respondents who had recently
voted indicated that they voted in an
election in response to seeing an online ad.
• Voters had high ad recall and took
action after seeing ads, either by voting,
watching a video, or clicking on an ad.
Two in five recalled seeing digital political
media prior to the 2014 midterms.
• Early timing of spend matters. The study
found it’s best to reach undecided voters
over a month before an election, and not in
the last few days. Most (70%) self-identified
decided voters said that they committed
to a candidate more than one month prior
to the election while 40% had done so in a
similar timeframe. The study suggests that
voters should be reached as early in the
election cycle as possible. 26% had already
cemented their choice of candidate more
than three months before election day.
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
VOTER/NON-VOTER BEHAVIOR
AND CHARACTERISTICS:
• Decided and undecided voters had very
different pixel profiles. Decided voters
were five times more likely to buy golf
clubs. Undecideds were 47% more likely
to be frugal. Decided voters tended to
be a little older and more financially
well-off than undecided voters.
• Voters were more likely to be
homeowners, have an interest in credit
cards, and be pro-life in the abortion
debate. Non-voters tended to be more
frugal, speak Spanish, and have a
relatively low household income.
HOW PARTY AFFILIATION AND ETHNIC
BACKGROUND AFFECTED BEHAVIOR:
• Democrats (9%) and Libertarians (12%)
were more likely to respond to ads
through volunteering than Republicans
(5%).
• Hispanics were more likely than
Caucasians to sign up for a newsletter
(9% vs. 5%), donate money to a cause
(8% vs. 6%), or volunteer for a campaign
or political cause (11% vs. 5%). African
Americans were much more likely than
Caucasians to volunteer for a campaign
(9% vs. 2%) or a political cause (8% vs.
3%). Caucasians were much more likely
to contact a representative (8% vs 3%).
1
DIGITAL AD RECALL AMONG SWING STATE VOTERS
AND NON-VOTERS
ACCORDING TO RESPONDENTS’ DATA PROFILES, VOTERS AND NON-VOTERS
EXHIBIT DIFFERENT INTERESTS, AS SHOWN IN THE TABLE BELOW:
In today’s connected world, a lot of us spend a fair amount of time
online, and that’s true for many of the subjects in our study. We all
see lots of ads while we’re reading news or checking out Facebook,
so it begs the question: how many people can actually remember
VOTERS WERE MORE LIKELY TO
NON-VOTERS WERE MORE LIKELY TO:
1.8x be homeowners
3.0x spend money only when
needed
1.7x have an interest in
Discover card
2.6x be Spanish speakers
1.6x have an interest in
MasterCard
2.5x have a HHI between
$20-30K
1.5x be Pro-life
2.5x use mobile device from
Huawei with carrier AT&T
1.5x be fiscally conservative
on taxation
2.3x be single
seeing a digital political ad? Two in five voters remembered seeing
digital political media prior to the 2014 midterms, and recall varied
only slightly between voters from each major political party.
Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters had roughly the same
level of recall, at around 22% (+/-1). Though Libertarians reported
the highest ad recall overall (38%), they accounted for only 3% of
respondents in the study. From a strategic perspective for advertisers,
the numbers suggested that there is little to be gained in terms of
branding by courting one side over the other, except potentially
swaying Libertarians toward one of the two major parties.
Also, voters were more likely to recall digital political advertisements
Based on data profile and survey results, voters in our study shared
than lapsed and non-voters. When looking at digital ad recall, 32%
several general characteristics: They tended to be Baby Boomers
of voters recalled seeing political ads before an election, versus the
and lean fiscally conservative, but were more inclined to favor
24% of non-voters and 26% of lapsed voters.
socially liberal policies. We can also infer that our sample of voters
SWING STATE VOTER AND NON-VOTER CHARACTERISTICS
AND BEHAVIORS
was center-right on the political spectrum, came from middle-class
households with an average household income between $50,000$60,000 per year, and were mostly Caucasian.
Data profiles also provide interesting data for comparisons between
the “voter” and “non-voter” segments of our study. If we look at the
Non-voters tended to be younger, lean left-of-center on the political
profiles of each of our respondents, we can start to understand their
spectrum, and were likely to have fewer financial resources than
third-party data profiles and how they relate to other respondents’
most voters. You might describe this group as being older Millennials
profiles. By better understanding what potential voters are really
with fewer financial resources, but they nonetheless make an effort
interested in, marketers and advertisers can better craft persuasive
to stay politically aware.
creative that directly addresses them.
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
2
DRIVING GOTV SUCCESS WITH TAILORED MESSAGING IN DIGITAL MEDIA
Overall, 36% of voters said that they voted in an election as a result of seeing an online
advertisement. This result was also statistically significant (p>.95) across all groups, and underscores the
importance of online advertising and its ability to drive the narrative of a campaign leading into an election.
STEPS TAKEN AFTER VIEWING A POLITICAL AD ONLINE:
BY VOTING TENDENCIES
Political ads caused recent voters to spring into action more often than other groups. Digital political
ads barely registered with lapsed and non-voters, with one noteworthy exception: Lapsed voters were slightly
more likely to volunteer for a cause than voters, though you should consider this result as directional.
While the smaller sample size for the lapsed-voter segment does not allow for statistical significance (p<80%
sig), it does suggest that concentrating on issue-based messaging with an emphasis on volunteering time to
a cause is one fruitful avenue for generating value from the lapsed-voter segment. Overall, we found 47% of
registered voters in swing states took some form of action after exposure to a political ad.
LAPSED
NON-VOTER
VOTER
Clicked ad
7%
7%
13%
Viewed video
9%
9%
16%
Signed up for newsletter
2%
3%
6%
Donated money to campaign
2%
3%
6%
Donated money to cause
4%
1%
5%
Volunteered for campaign
0%
1%
3%
Volunteered for political cause
4%
0%
3%
Contacted representative
4%
1%
8%
Voted in election
11%
3%
36%
None of these
78%
84%
52%
Statistically, significance for votes determined comparing to both non-voters and lapsed voters. Significance for lapsed and
non-voters determined by using voters as the comparison group.
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
3
POLITICAL PARTIES
How does party affiliation affect digital advertising? Breaking out the results by party shows a clear
distinction in the actions taken post ad exposure. Democrats and Libertarians were statistically
more likely (p >.95) to respond to ads by volunteering time to campaigns than their Republican
counterparts and unaffiliated voters. Democrats were also more likely to signup for a newsletter than
Republicans, and more likely to volunteer for a political cause (non-campaign) than unaffiliated voters (p
>.90). There are no significant statistical differences in the “Voted in Election” category.
The results reveal that advertisers seeking to reach Democrats using specific messaging may expect more
bang for their buck when compared to similar messaging aimed at Republicans. However, most parties
(excluding Independents) may expect to equally benefit from “Vote In This Election” messaging.
STEPS TAKEN AFTER VIEWING A POLITICAL AD ONLINE:
BY PARTY AFFILIATION
DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN
LIBERTARIAN
NO AFFILIATION
Clicked ad
14%
12%
11%
12%
Viewed video
16%
15%
20%
14%
Signed up for newsletter
6%
4%
9%
5%
Donated money to campaign
7%
5%
7%
5%
Donated money to cause
5%
4%
4%
4%
Volunteered for campaign
5%
2%
6%
2%
Volunteered for political cause
4%
3%
6%
2%
Contacted representative
7%
6%
9%
8%
Voted in election
36%
35%
38%
24%
None of these
52%
55%
46%
65%
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
4
ETHNICITIES
Different ethnic groups responded to digital political marketing efforts in different ways. African
Americans were statistically more likely than Caucasians to respond to ads in most categories
(p>.90), with the exception of contacting a representative and donating money to a cause. There
were weaker indications for clicking on an ad and viewing a political video, both positive in
the direction of African Americans over Caucasians (p>.80). The results from the “Voted in an
Election” checkbox in our survey closely mirrors census data, which has African Americans voting at
greater rates than all other ethnic groups in the most recent Presidential election. Hispanics were more
likely than Caucasians to sign up for a newsletter, donate money to a cause, volunteer for a campaign,
and volunteer for a political cause (p>.90).
This information can be very useful for a grassroots GOTV strategy. GOTV initiatives targeting highdensity African American or Hispanic regions might see positive results from creative messaging
that focuses on one or more of the actions specified above. Caucasian voters, while generally less
engaged and responsive to ads than other ethnic groups, might be reached with “Contact your
Representative” messaging in digital media.
STEPS TAKEN AFTER VIEWING A POLITICAL AD ONLINE:
BY ETHNICITY
WHITE
AFRICAN AMERICAN
HISPANIC
Clicked ad
12%
15%
12%
Viewed video
15%
18%
17%
Signed up for newsletter
5%
8%
9%
Donated money to campaign
6%
9%
8%
Donated money to cause
4%
5%
9%
Volunteered for campaign
2%
9%
6%
Volunteered for political cause
3%
8%
5%
Contacted representative
8%
3%
9%
Voted in election
36%
40%
40%
None of these
54%
43%
44%
Statistically significance for AFRICAN AMERICAN and HISPANIC groups determined by using Caucasians as the comparison group.
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
5
WHO ARE “UNDECIDEDS,” AND HOW DO THEY VOTE?
VOTING TIME BY DECIDED/UNDECIDED STATUS
For this study, we defined undecideds as those who said they did not
Decides
know who they would vote for prior to one week before the election.
About one-fifth (19%) of our “voters” group were undecided in
recent elections.
We also asked all of our survey participants (voters, non-voters,
and lapsed voters alike), “Are you an undecided voter?” This was an
attempt to measure the number of hearts and minds still receptive
Undecides
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
to persuasion messaging during the campaign season on a more
20%
subjective basis. Most (70%) self-reported decideds said that they
10%
committed to a candidate more than one month prior to the election
0%
3+ Months
1-2 Months
2-4 Weeks
2-7 Days
Day Before
while 40% of self-identified undecideds had done so. Collectively,
Filling out
a ballot
(Figure 1)
61% of voters from both groups had decided on a candidate in the
same time frame. (Figure 1)
By state, Illinois and North Carolina had the highest number of
undecideds in our sample, and therefore were more open to potential
influence during the latter part of an election campaign. Colorado,
Florida, and Wisconsin had fewer undecided respondents.
DECIDED ON CANDIDATE 1 WEEK OR LESS BEFORE ELECTION, BY STATE
30.0%
25.6%
25.0%
These insights are key; knowing when voters are most susceptible
to persuasion messaging by voting method might allow advertisers
to better target swing voters who are still sitting on the fence. For
decided voters, those who voted by mail in lieu of using a polling
station were 26% more likely to have cemented their choice of a
candidate more than three months before election day. If advertisers
want to reach these people, they would be well advised to do so
several months before voting begins.
21.6%
20.0%
23.0%
19.1%
18.4%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
CO
FL
IL
NC
WI
(Figure 2)
As for the undecideds, people who voted at the polls and not by mail
are 49% more likely to have not decided on a candidate until two to
four weeks before election day. Absentee voters are twice as likely as
in-person voters to have not selected a candidate two to seven days
before election day.
%
VOTING METHOD
54%
Cast ballots at voting booth
insights that advertisers can use to classify and prospect decided
22%
By mail
and undecided voters. By using our survey respondents’ data
18%
Early voting
6%
Absentee ballot
Moving beyond our survey methodology, we discovered additional
profiles, advertisers can get a sense about what piques the interest of
prospective voters and how to reach them with messages designed
to attract their attention.
(Figure 3)
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
6
Self-reported decided voters tended to be a little older and more
VOTING TIME BY VOTING METHOD
well-off than their undecided counterparts. Their Internet browsing
behavior revealed bigger-ticket purchases sprinkled amongst the
procurement of more common household items. Television was a
big factor for decided voters, with viewership habits appearing in
the moderate-to-heavy range.
Absentee
Polling Station
By Mail
Early Voting
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
The profiles of self-reported undecideds tended to gravitate toward
more working-class and lower income segments than their decided
counterparts. They tended to be relatively younger (more Generation
X than Baby Boomer) and can be characterized as “frugal.” Politically,
they lean fiscally conservative and socially liberal.
50%
40%
30%
20%
3+ Months
1-2 Months
2-4 Weeks
2-7 Days
Day Before
Filling out
a ballot
(Figure 4)
All of this has implications for digital advertising. The data say
that advertisers should consider reaching undecideds more than one
month before the election, as much of the decision-making process
occurs before the final weeks leading into the election. Decided voters
make up their minds even sooner, incenting advertisers to seek to
DECIDED VOTERS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO:
UNDECIDED VOTERS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO:
5.2x buy golf clubs
+47% be more frugal
4.7x have interest in home
and garden
+32% watch March Madness
4.6x have researched Type II
diabetes
+27% enjoy wine
4.6x watch daytime TV
+15% be a sports fan
3.8x watch game shows
+12% be a part of Generation X
3.6 have an interest in
photography
+11% enjoy DIY projects
influence those voters more than two months before election day.
(Figure 5)
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
7
CONCLUSION
Right now, many campaigns spend a lot of money in the last few
days before decision day. However, the results of our survey show
that advertisers seeking to persuade voters to take a particular
course of action should begin spending their media dollars well in
advance of election day, and focus on GOTV initiatives within the
final four weeks of an election campaign. Ultimately, our study
shows that hitting the right voters at the right time with the right
message is crucial to driving successful political campaigns.
We hope that these insights will put you on the path to success
as you embark on your next campaign. Good luck!
Preparing for 2016: Part 1
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