Monday, April 27, 2015 1Q15 Earnings Preview Thai Oil TOP Rec. : HOLD 1Q15 profit to make year’s high We revise up our profit forecast and fair value to reflect better-than-expected GRM as a result of significantly decreasing cost. However, the share price likely has risen in advance from the positive factor until fully valued. We recommend HOLD. 1Q15 profit to make year’s high We project TOP to show net profit of B4.3bn in 1Q15, rebounding from net loss of B6.5bn in 4Q14 as a result of the following factors. 1) There would be stock gain (LCM included) of around B1.1bn in 1Q15, compared with stock loss (LCM included) of B12bn in the prior quarter. 2) Market GRM is projected to increase 6.0%qoq on seasonal effect. 3) Due to BOI tax benefit, TOP will not have to pay tax on the refinery business in 1Q15. 4) There would be Fx gain of B490m, compared with Fx loss of B548m in the prior quarter. However, TOP’s profit would still be affected by the aromatics business; TPX would face net loss in this quarter from decreasing spreads and utilization rate. Overall, 1Q15 net profit of TOP is estimated to comprise 61% of our initial FY2015 forecast. Up 2015-2016 forecast to reflect decreasing cost Current Price (B): 56.00 Target Price (B): 54.00 Upside : -3.5% Dividend Yield : 4.0% Total Return : 0.5% Market Cap. (Bm) : 114,241.56 CG Score: Technical Chart We revise up our FY2015-2016 profit forecast, as shown in the table, increasing GRM assumption from US$4.5/barrel to US$5.5/barrel in 2015 and US$5/barrel in 2016 to reflect benefit from significantly lower fuel loss and premium as a result of decreasing crude oil prices. However, in the short term, normalized profit in 2Q15 would weaken slightly from 1Q15 as GRM would lower after passing winter; TOP’s normalized profit in 2H15 would show a significant decline from 1H15 because of 1) a low season of refinery and 2) significantly increasing finished oil supply from new refineries and new Px supply. New FV is B54; share price already fully valued. HOLD ASP vs IAA concensus Under the new forecast, new 2015 fair value (DCF) is B54 (B48 previously). We reiterate to hold TOP for dividend; the share price likely has already risen in response to all positive factors and the profit likely has possibly made a year’s peak in 1Q15. Key Data FY: Dec 31 Sales (Bm) Net Profit (Bm) Norm. Profit (Bm) EPS (B) PER (x) DPS (B) Dividend Yield (%) BVS (B) PBV (x) ROE (%) Source : ASP Research FY12A 447,432 12,320 9,443 6.04 9.2 2.70 4.9 42.42 1.3 14.8 FY13A 414,575 9,316 10,772 4.57 12.2 2.06 3.7 44.57 1.2 10.5 FY14A 390,090 -4,026 -6,597 -1.97 n.m. 1.16 2.1 40.54 1.4 -4.6 FY15F 456,575 10,140 10,140 4.97 11.2 2.24 4.0 50.62 1.1 10.9 FY16F 500,017 12,084 12,084 5.92 9.4 2.67 4.8 52.76 1.1 11.5 EPS (B) ASP Cons 2015F 4.97 4.97 %diff 0% 2016F 5.92 4.58 29% Source: IAA concensus and ASP Nalinrat Kittikumpolrat License No.: 018350 [email protected] This report is a rough translation of one of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-reading clients can see what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready translation, Asia Plus Securities pcl cannot be held responsible for translation inaccuracies.) The reports and information contained herein are compiled from public data sources and our analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities. 1Q15 profit to make year’s high We project TOP to show net profit of B4.3bn in 1Q15, rebounding from net loss of B6.5bn in 4Q14 as a result of the following factors. 1) Stock loss would decrease from US$11.7/barrel in 4Q14 to US$1.6/barrel, while there will also be a reversal of LCM loss to US$2.7/barrel gain in this quarter, so total stock gain (LCM included) is projected around US$1/barrel or B1.1bn in 1Q15, compared with stock loss (LCM included) of B12bn in the prior quarter. 2) Market GRM is projected to increase 6.0%qoq on seasonal effect to US$8.7/barrel, mainly because crack spreads of ULG95 and fuel oil have widened around US$1.9/barrel and US$3.7/barrel from the prior quarter. 3) Due to remaining BOI tax benefit of B3.2bn at the end of 2014 from the investment on environment prevention program, TOP will not have to pay tax on the refinery business in 1Q15. 4) There would be Fx gain of B490m, compared with Fx loss of B548m in the prior quarter. However, TOP’s profit would still be adversely affected by the aromatics business; product spreads have decreased, especially that of Bz which declined as much as 52.6%qoq to US$98/ton; the narrower spread has also caused TPX’s utilization rate to lower from 89% to 66%. As a result, product to feed margin of the aromatic business has decreased around 31.8%qoq to US$15/ton, causing TPX to face net loss of around B786m in this quarter. Overall, 1Q15 net profit of TOP is estimated to comprise 61% of initial FY2015 forecast. Up 2015-2016 forecast to reflect decreasing cost We revise up our FY2015-2016 profit forecast, as shown in the table, increasing GRM assumption from US$4.5/barrel to US$5.5/barrel in 2015 and US$5/barrel in 2016 to reflect benefit from significantly lower fuel loss and premium as a result of decreasing crude oil prices. Accordingly, we project TOP to be able to rebound from net loss of B4bn in 2014 to net profit of B10bn in 2015 and to grow further by 19.2%yoy in 2016. Profit to weaken continually in the rest of 2015 For the rest of 2015, we project 2Q15 normalized profit to weaken slightly from 1Q15 as GRM would lower after passing winter. Yet, normalized profit would remain high due to an annual turnaround of many refineries worldwide and gasoline stocking for the U.S. driving season, as well as an annual turnaround of aromatics factories in 2Q15 which would help widen product spreads temporarily. However, TOP’s normalized profit in 2H15 would show a significant decline from 1H15 because of the following reasons. 1) It is a low season of refineries as finished oil demands would decrease. 2) There is new supply of finished oil from three new refineries in the Middle East with combined daily production capacity of 1.2 million barrels; although a daily supply would decrease around 400,000 barrels in total from a permanent shutdown of three existing refineries in Australia, Japan, and Taiwan, net new supply is still 800,000 barrels a day, versus only 490,000 barrels a day in 2014. 3) New Px supply of 2.6 million tons a year will enter the market in 2H15; though the new supply lowers from 7 million tons a year in 2014, it will still weaken product spread in 2H15 from 1H15. 1Q15 Earnings Preview 1Q13 2Q13 Bm Sales 104,914 93,233 Cost of Sales 101,455 91,554 Gross Margin 3,459 1,679 EBIT 5,666 (401) Gain from FX 1,717 (2,764) Income Tax (270) (116) Net Profit 4,363 (1,565) Norm Profit 3,026 233 EPS (B) 2.14 (0.77) Norm EPS (B) 1.48 0.11 Gross margin 3.3% 1.8% Net profit margin 4.2% -1.7% Source : Financial Statement / ASP Research 3Q13 108,500 99,586 8,915 9,255 (249) (555) 7,629 7,483 3.74 3.67 8.2% 7.0% 4Q13 107,928 104,947 2,981 861 (1,815) (219) (214) 928 (0.10) 0.45 2.8% -0.2% 1Q14 112,228 109,828 2,400 3,755 692 (208) 2,534 1,499 1.24 0.73 2.1% 2.3% 2Q14 101,063 98,378 2,686 3,621 290 (441) 2,094 1,387 1.03 0.68 2.7% 2.1% 3Q14 88,254 90,829 (2,575) (1,203) 561 118 (2,175) (3,180) (1.07) (1.56) -2.9% -2.5% 4Q14 88,545 95,115 (6,570) (6,831) (548) 1,451 (6,479) (6,303) (3.18) (3.09) -7.4% -7.3% 1Q15F %QoQ %YoY 71,882 -18.8% -36.0% 67,041 -29.5% -39.0% 4,841 -173.7% 101.7% 5,391 -178.9% 43.6% 490 -189.4% -29.2% (60) n.m. n.m. 4,306 n.m. 69.9% 3,818 n.m. 154.7% 2.11 1.87 6.7% 6.0% 2015F 456,575 437,680 18,894 16,320 0 2,780 10,140 10,140 2014 %YoY 390,090 17.0% 394,150 11.0% (4,060) n.m. (658) n.m. 996 n.m. 920 202.1% (4,026) n.m. (6,597) n.m. (1.97) (3.23) -1.0% -1.0% Company and its Subsidiaries’ Operating Results 2Q58TD 1Q58 4Q57 3Q57 %QoQ 40.7% Petroleum product price ($/bbl) Local LPG*-DB -17.04 -12.70 -24.20 -40.81 ULG95-DB 15.98 15.52 13.43 13.24 1.4% JET-DB 13.68 16.97 17.67 14.50 21.9% Diesel-DB 14.06 16.27 15.96 14.42 10.7% HSFO-DB -3.48 -1.88 -5.60 -8.39 33.3% PX CFR Taiwan-ULG95 270.19 253.45 252.03 370.52 -32.0% MX FOB Korea-ULG95 115.77 85.69 57.30 158.90 -63.9% BZ FOB Korea-ULG95 188.31 101.17 206.55 326.13 -36.7% TOL FOB Korea-ULG95 103.11 46.19 77.17 170.10 -54.6% 500SN Ex-tank Singapore-HSFO 398.32 373.03 500.97 499.86 0.2% Bitumen FOB Singapore-HSFO 36.66 24.28 87.91 -66.60 232.0% Aromatic Spreads ($/ton) Lube Base Spreads ($/bbl) Source : TOP Key Investment Table Company CHINA SINOPEC CORP-H PETROCHINA-H TAIWAN NAN YA PLASTICS FORMOSA PLASTIC FORMOSA CHEM & F JAPAN TOSOH CORP JX HD MITSUI CHEMICALS HONG KONG SINOPEC KANTONS SINOPEC SHANG-H INDIA RELIANCE INDS BHARAT PETROL INDIAN OIL CORP Malaysia PCHEM PETRONAS DAGANGA THAILAND PTT PCL PTT GLOBAL CHEM THAI OIL PCL IRPC PCL BANGCHAK PETROLE INDORAMA VENTURE AVERAGE Key Risks PBV 2015F 2016F PER 2015F 2016F REC./BB Rating Current Price Target Price Upside (%) 3.36 3.35 7.6 10.6 6.6 9.4 -13.4% -11.4% 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.2 21.2 26.6 14.1 15.8 4.41 4.17 2.96 78.2 80.8 79.6 79.6 85.7 71.3 1.8% 6.1% -10.4% 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 19.4 21.2 25.0 17.6 19.0 21.3 3.55 3.50 3.35 657.0 521.2 404.0 651.3 502.2 373.5 -0.9% -3.6% -7.5% 1.4 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.6 1.0 6.4 23.8 11.2 9.0 16.2 4.45 3.55 7.2 5.3 7.8 3.5 8.3% -34.9% 1.4 2.6 1.3 2.4 18.2 28.1 13.9 25.2 4.60 4.34 4.17 875.3 732.3 349.6 1064.6 842.9 402.8 21.6% 15.1% 15.2% 1.2 2.5 1.2 1.0 2.2 1.1 11.0 16.9 14.6 9.0 12.5 9.9 2.58 1.78 6.3 22.3 5.2 17.0 -17.5% -23.7% 2.1 4.2 1.9 4.0 19.2 31.4 17.0 28.1 BUY BUY HOLD BUY HOLD BUY 362.00 63.25 55.25 4.64 35.50 25.25 398.00 67.50 54.00 5.20 33.50 32.00 9.9% 6.7% -2.3% 12.1% -5.6% 26.7% 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 9.7 9.6 11.1 11.5 11.1 28.2 14.4 9.1 8.6 9.3 10.3 9.7 19.2 13.3 1) There could be an unplanned shutdown of refinery, aromatics plant, and other plants of TOP. 2) GRM, aromatics spread, and lubricating oil spread may miss our forecast. Remark: - Calculation excluded companies with unusual PER or PBV BB Rating is the average from Recommendation Consensus of analysts in the last 12 months etc. 5 = BUY, 4 + WEAK BUY, 3 = HOLD, 2 = WEAK SELL, 1 = SELL Source : Bloomberg / ASP Research Source : ASP Research
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