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Atmospheric Research 125–126 (2013) 12–19
Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Atmospheric Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/atmos
“North drying and south wetting” summer precipitation trend
over China and its potential linkage with aerosol loading
Jiansheng Ye a,⁎, Wenhong Li b, Laifang Li b, Feng Zhang a
a
b
State Key Laboratory of Grassland and Agro-Ecosystems, School of Life Science, Lanzhou University, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Lanzhou, 730000, PR China
Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
a r t i c l e
i n f o
Article history:
Received 23 February 2012
Received in revised form 23 January 2013
Accepted 24 January 2013
Keywords:
Eastern China
Rainfall
Aerosol loading
East Asia summer monsoon
Land-sea temperature contrast
Aerosol optical depth
a b s t r a c t
Changes in summer precipitation over China and their linkage to aerosol loading during
1957–2008 were analyzed. Increased (decreased) summer precipitation has been observed
over the Southern (Northern) China, presenting a “north drying and south wetting” pattern.
Such a change in precipitation pattern is related to the decreased summertime temperature
over South-central China (cool zone). The cool zone, in turn, is likely caused by the increased
aerosol loading, as manifested by the increased Aerosol optical depth (AOD) over this region.
The cooling effect in the cool zone together with steady warming over adjacent oceans (the
South China Sea and the Western North Pacific) weaken land–sea temperature contrast, and
thus the East Asia summer monsoon (EASM) circulation. The weakened EASM might restrain
the rainbelt in southern China longer with less moisture penetrating further north in summer
season. Our analysis suggests that the aerosol loading induced “cool zone” could contribute to
the “north drying with south wetting” pattern over Eastern China by altering the intensity of
EASM. Furthermore, this change in precipitation pattern is also reflected in the trend of Palmer
Drought Severity Index in Eastern China, which indicates a more extensive tendency of
dryness in Eastern China by considering both precipitation and temperature.
© 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Summer precipitation is a critical water source for China,
which contributes to 40% (in wet areas) — over 60% (in dry
areas) of annual precipitation nationwide (Lei et al., 2011a).
Changes in summer precipitation influence many aspects
of social economy and ecology in China, such as population,
food security, ecosystem productivity and resilience. From the
late 1950s, summer precipitation has undergone substantial
changes in China related to greenhouse-gases (GHGs) induced
global warming, as suggested by both observation and climate
model simulations. Generally, GHGs induced global warming
could moisten the atmosphere and intensify the atmospheric
hydrological cycle, causing pattern shifts of global and regional
precipitation (Li et al., 2011b; Seager et al., 2012; Trenberth,
2012). Over Eastern China, summer precipitation is closely
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 13919145033.
E-mail address: [email protected] (J. Ye).
0169-8095/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.01.007
related to the intensity of East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM)
(Sperber et al., 2012; Zhou and Yu, 2005). As the GHGs
concentration increases, EASM is expected to strengthen
because of stronger warming over high-latitude land compared
to adjacent oceans (Xu et al., 2006). Model simulation with
doubling CO2 suggested an increase (decrease) of precipitation
over the north China (the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze
River) (Li et al., 2011a), which is a typical precipitation pattern
associated with anomalously strong EASM. However, observation shows the opposite: precipitation generally decreased at
most northern stations in China and increased in the middle
and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in recent decades (Lei
et al., 2011a; Liu et al., 2005; Xu et al., 2006; Yang and Lau,
2004). Such a “north drying and south wetting” pattern is more
likely associated with weakened EASM (Ding and Wang, 2007;
Xu et al., 2006; Xu, 2001; Zhao et al., 2010) instead of
strengthened one as predicted from GHGs forcing.
The discrepancies between observed precipitation change
and that predicted by GHGs forcing suggest that factors other
J. Ye et al. / Atmospheric Research 125–126 (2013) 12–19
13
than GHGs are responsible for the “north drying and south
wetting” pattern. One of these factors to counteract the effect
of GHGs could be the increase of aerosols over East China due
to rapid industrialization (Cowan and Cai, 2011; Menon
et al., 2002; Xu, 2001). Modeling simulations suggest that
the atmospheric aerosol particles can reflect incoming solar
radiation, weaken land-ocean thermal contrast in summer
and thus suppress the EASM, which would contribute to the
observed “north drying and south wetting” pattern (Cowan and
Cai, 2011; Menon et al., 2002; Xu et al., 2006; Xu, 2001).
Although previous studies link aerosols with the “north
drying and south wetting” over Eastern China, uncertainties
remain about how aerosols counteract the effect of GHGs
induced global warming through modulation of the EASM
in China. Our analysis focuses on the impact of aerosols on
the processes involved in the onset and establishment of
EASM. Climatologically, the onset and establishment of the
EASM consist of three distinctive stages: 1) rainbelt moving to
southern China (18°–25°N) with the development of EASM in
late May and early June; 2) rainbelt jumping northward to the
Yangtze River basin with the northward expansion of the EASM
from mid-June to mid-July and 3) rainbelt advancing further
northward to northern China from mid-July to August (Ding and
Chan, 2005; Gao et al., 2011; Lau et al., 1988). This study aims
to investigate 1) aspects of the weakened EASM associated with
the land-sea temperature and pressure contrast, the spatial
distribution of aerosol loading and its impact on air temperature, changes of the location of the moist potential temperature
isoline; 2) the potential linkage between the precipitation
pattern and increased anthropogenic aerosol loading in recent
decades.
The rest of the manuscript is organized as follows. Section 2
describes the data and methods used in this study. Changes
in summer precipitation and EASM are presented in Section 3.
Impact of aerosols on the changes of the EASM and associated
precipitation are also analyzed in the Section. Sections 4 and 5
give discussion and conclusion, respectively.
2. Data and methods
The observed precipitation and air temperature are collected
from 338 meteorological stations (Fig. 1a), each station has a
lack of data no more than 5 years during the whole study period
(1957-2008). These station data have been quality controlled
(Zhai et al., 2005) and are available at the China Meteorological
Administration (CMA) Data Sharing Service System. Due to lack
of daily observational data prior to 1957 and relatively sparse
meteorological stations over the western China (west of 105°E),
the study focuses on Eastern China (east of 105°E) during the
52-year period of 1957–2008.
Precipitation and surface air temperature (0.5° latitude×0.5°
longitude) from the University of Delaware (abbreviated as udel)
are also used and compared with weather stations during the
same period of 1957–2008 because of their spatial uniformity
and temporal consistency (Matsuura and Willmott, 2009). We
also analyzed the monthly dataset of Palmer Drought Severity
Index (PDSI) over global land areas on a 2.5° latitude×2.5°
longitude grid box, derived using historical precipitation and
temperature data, spanning from 1870 to 2005 (Dai et al., 2004).
Sea level pressure (SLP), 10-m wind speed, and specific
humidity are from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Monthly data.
Fig. 1. Trends in summer precipitation over China during 1957–2008 based
on data at 338 weather stations (a), and the udel-precipitation gridded data
during 1957-2008 (b), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over China
during 1957–2005 (per decade) (c). Yellow River (north) and Yangtze River
(south) are also shown in the figures.
SLP data from International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere
Data Set (ICOADS, http://icoads.noaa.gov/) is also analyzed in
this study to avoid the possible discontinuity in the property of
NCEP/NCAR SLP data before and after 1968 (Yang et al., 2002).
SSTs used here are the Extended Reconstructed monthly
2-degree global SST (ERSST) (Smith et al., 2008). The difference
between SST over the South China Sea and the Western North
Pacific (7.5–20°N and 105–120°E) and surface air temperature
over Eastern China is calculated to represent the land-sea
temperature contrast. Similarly, difference of SLP between the
South China Sea and the Western North Pacific (7.5–20°N and
105–120°E) are also analyzed using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and
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J. Ye et al. / Atmospheric Research 125–126 (2013) 12–19
ICOADS. These two indices reflect the land-sea thermal contrast,
the driving force of EASM (Ding, 1994).
Aerosol optical depth (AOD), which reflects the attenuation
of solar radiation by aerosol scattering and absorption between
the point of observation and the top of the atmosphere, is a
measurement of the integrated columnar aerosol loading and
the single most important parameter for evaluating direct
radiative forcing (Seinfeld and Pandis, 1998). In this study,
the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)
Terra Version 5.1 monthly Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm
data (1° latitude× 1° longitude, available from 2000 onward)
[http://disc.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni#maincontent] are used
to characterize the spatial distribution and temporal evolution
of aerosols over China.
3. Results
3.1. Spatial pattern of trend in summer precipitation
Fig. 1a-b show the trends of summer precipitation over
China during the period 1957–2008 using gauge and udel
gridded data. Majority of the weather stations in the south of
the Yellow River show positive trends in summer precipitation,
whereas stations in the north generally show negative trends in
Eastern China during 1957–2008 (Fig. 1a). The udelprecipitation data show a similar pattern (Fig. 1b). The “north
drying and south wetting” precipitation pattern is also
demonstrated by PDSI using both precipitation and surface air
temperature as input. Positive trends (0.2–0.4/decade) are
found in the middle and lower reach of Yangtze River; negative
trends (less than −0.4/decade) are found over wide areas
further north of Yellow River (Fig. 1c), indicating drying trend.
Compared to the spatial distribution of summer precipitation
trend (Fig. 1b), results from PDSI indicate 29% larger dry area in
Eastern China (Fig. 1c). Previous study found that the effect of
surface temperature accounts for 10%–30% of PDSI's variance
(Dai et al., 2004), relatively wider dry areas over Eastern China
from the PDSI analysis is likely associated with surface air
temperature changes that will be discussed in the Section 3.2.
Overall, the trend of PDSI in Eastern China shows “north drying
and south wetting” pattern similar to that indicated by
precipitation, although the drying trends are more prominent
compared with wetting trends.
3.2. Spatial pattern of trend in surface air temperature and
aerosol loading
Surface air temperatures show a different spatial pattern
compared to that of precipitation. Negative trends are observed
at most stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze
River (i.e. South-central China, hereafter as cool zone) and
positive trends over the rest of China (Fig. 2a). Cooling is more
significant in the north part of the cool zone, slight cooling is
found in the south part of the cool zone (Fig. 2a). The total
emissions of SO2 in China show a continuously increasing trend
during 1954–2005 [Fig. 3 in (Qian et al., 2007)]; black carbon
and organic carbon aerosols also increased in the recent
decades (Streets et al., 2008). To explore the potential cause
of the cool zone, both the trend and spatial pattern of aerosol
loading are analyzed. In general, AOD (averaged over
2000–2011) and its increasing trend over the cool zone are
Fig. 2. (a) Trends in mean air temperature (the cool zone, with negative
trends in temperatures, in South-central China is shown); (b) Aerosol
Optical Depth (AOD) retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer Terra Version 5.1 monthly AOD at 550 nm data during
2000–2011; (c) trends in AOD during 2000–2011 (per decade).
higher than other regions of eastern China (Fig. 2b–c). We also
find large AOD and its trend in some areas outside (northward
and eastward) of the cool zone (Fig. 2b–c); however, increase
in surface air temperatures is not statistically significant
eastward of the cool zone (Fig. 2a). Discrepancies between
the surface air temperature and AOD northward of the cool
zone may be caused by stronger urban heat island effect (such
as Beijing and Tianjin) in recent decades (Miao et al., 2009),
and/or by different time periods of the two datasets (MODIS
AOD data 2000–2011 and surface air temperature data during
J. Ye et al. / Atmospheric Research 125–126 (2013) 12–19
15
The trend of air temperature in the cool zone (Fig. 1c) is also
analyzed, a slight (but not statistically significant) cooling trend
is observed at −0.025 °C per decade for the station data and −
0.03 °C per decade for udel-temperature (Fig. 4b). Warming
(0.11 °C per decade) is evident over South China Sea and the
Western North Pacific, the trend is statistically significant
(pb 0.05). Since warming trends over adjacent oceans are
slightly lower than over land averaged for the whole China
(0.12 °C per decade), we would expect a slightly increase or
similar SLP difference between land and adjacent oceans
during 1957–2008. However, statistically significant decreasing trends of the SLP difference are observed using both NCEP/
NCAR (−0.83 mb per decade, p b 0.05) and ICOADS (−
0.80 mb per decade, p b 0.05) data (Fig. 3d). Summer monsoon
wind speed, another indicator of EASM, also shows a significantly weakening trend during 1957–2008 using both weather
station (−0.068 m s−1 per decade, pb 0.05) and NCEP
reanalysis (−0.10 m s−1 per decade, pb 0.05) (Fig. 3d) data.
To explore the relationship between precipitation and
temperature over the cool zone, trends in precipitation and
temperature in the cool zone are further analyzed (Fig. 4a).
Significantly increases in precipitation are found using both
station observation (6.1 mm/decade) and the udel-precipitation
(6.2 mm/decade) during the whole period of 1957–2008.
Increase in precipitation is negatively correlated to surface air
temperature over the cool zone (Fig. 4b) and the correlations
are statistically significant using both station (pb 0.001) and the
udel (pb 0.001) data.
Fig. 3. Time series of (a) mean summer air temperature anomaly ( °C) over
China (black line shows data from 338 stations over China, gray line is
the udel-temperature data), (b) mean air temperature anomaly over the
cool zone shown in Fig. 2a (black and gray lines are the same as Fig. 3a),
(c) summer sea surface temperature anomaly (SST, °C) over South China Sea
and the Western North Pacific (SCS&WNP), (d) summer sea level pressure
difference (SLP, millibars) between SCS&WNP and China (SLP difference =
SLPsea – SLPland, black line shows data from NECP, gray line from Trenberth's
Northern Hemisphere data), and (e) summer wind speed anomaly (m/s)
over China (black line shows data from 338 stations over China, gray
line from NECP). Dashed lines are linear trends during the whole period of
1957–2008.
1957–2008). Within the cool zone, the north part has higher
AOD and its increasing trend than in the south, in agreement
with the spatial pattern of decrease in temperature (see
Fig. 2a-c).
3.3. Weakened East Asia summer monsoon
Summer precipitation over Eastern China is closely related
with the strength of EASM (Xu et al., 2006), which regulated by
the land-sea pressure and temperature differences. During
1957–2008, a significant warming trend (0.12 °C per decade,
pb 0.05) has been observed averaging the 338 stations in China
(Fig. 3a, black line). The udel-temperature shows good consistency with station observations over China (Fig. 3a, gray line),
with a significant warming trend of 0.14 °C per decade (pb 0.05).
Fig. 4. (a) Time series of summer precipitation anomaly (mm) over the cool
zone (black and gray lines are the same as in Fig. 3a, except for precipitation);
and (b) relationship between temperature and precipitation over the cool zone
(black points show data from 338 stations over China, gray point from the
udel-data).
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J. Ye et al. / Atmospheric Research 125–126 (2013) 12–19
3.4. Impact of EASM on changes in precipitation
Based on daily precipitation observation at stations over
Eastern China (east of 105°E), the seasonal evolution of
summer monsoonal precipitation is analyzed (Fig. 5). Rainbelt
moves northward from May to July and retreats southward
from August to September (Fig. 5a–b, precipitation in May and
September, not belonging to monsoon season, are also shown
here to make comparison). Pre-monsoon precipitation starts
to increase over southern China in early May (Fig. 5a–b), which
indicates the onset of the EASM. Compared with the first 26-yr
period (1957–1982), precipitation decreases over the south of
36°N in early and mid May in the second 26-yr period
(1983–2008, Fig. 5c), suggesting a delayed or weakened onset
of summer monsoon (Ding and Chan, 2005). Precipitation
increases furthermore in June, while the rainbelt stays in the
Yangtze River basin (25–35°N); heavy rainfall decreases in
Yangtze River basin in July and rainbelt moves further north of
35°N (Fig. 5a–b). Although there are some noisy rainfall change
signals probably due to the increased extremely dry and wet
events during the recent decade (Zhai et al., 2005), precipitation generally increases in the Yangtze River basin from June to
August in the second 26-yr period (1983–2008), wheras
decreases north of 35°N in July and August (Fig. 5c). The
rainbelt starts to retreat in August and returns back to Yangtze
River basin in early September and further south in mid and
later September (Fig. 5a-b). The negative precipitation difference in the mid and later September (Fig. 5c) indicates that the
summer monsoon rain ends early in the second 26-yr period
(1983–2008).
The northward march of the EASM can also be demonstrated by the migration of warm, moist subtropical air at
850 hPa (Lei et al., 2011a; Suzuki and Hoskins, 2009). Fig. 6
compares the mean positions of 335 K moist potential
temperature isolines at 850 hPa during the two 26-yr periods.
Consistent with seasonal evolution of precipitation (Fig. 5),
moist air progresses northward from May to July and retreats
from August to September (Fig. 6). During July and August,
the 335 K moist potential temperature isolines reside in
further north of 35°N. Compared with the first 26-yr period
Fig. 5. Seasonal evolution of precipitation (mm/day) over eastern China (105°–122°E) based on daily precipitation (seven days running average) (a) averaged
over the first 26-yr period (1957–1982), (b) averaged over the second 26-yr period (1983–2008), and (c) the difference between the 2nd and the 1st 26-yr
periods (Fig. 5b-a); daily precipitation data have been re-gridded at 1° latitude × 1° longitude.
J. Ye et al. / Atmospheric Research 125–126 (2013) 12–19
17
Fig. 6. Location of the 335 K moist potential temperature isoline at 850 hPa from May to September in Eastern China; solid lines and dashed lines are
climatological mean during the 1st 26-yr period (1957–1982) and the 2nd 26-yr period (1983–2008), respectively.
(1957–1982), the positions of 335 K moist potential temperature isolines retreat about 1–4° southward in July and August
of the second period (1983–2008) although the southward
retreat trends are less apparent in May, June, and September.
July and August is the third stage of the EASM, characterizing
a northward movement of summer monsoon rainbelt into
Northern China. The southward trends of 335K moist
potential temperature isoline location (Fig. 6) thus suggest
that the weakened EASM hold the rainbelt in the south and
prevent it from advancing further northward to Northern
China in the key stage of the northward movement of rainbelt
of the summer monsoon circulation.
The moisture flux in the summer season is also analyzed
(Fig. 7). The northward moisture fluxes are apparent in eastern
China during both of the 26-yr time periods (Fig. 7a and b).
However, northward fluxes weaken during the second period
(1983–2008, Fig. 7b) compared to the first period (1957–1982,
Fig. 7a), resulting in a southward moisture flux differences
between the two periods (Fig. 7c), which contribute to a “north
drying and south wetting” pattern.
4. Discussion
Extensive warming is observed in China except the cool
zone in recent decades. The northern part of the cool zone
is characterized by rapid development of industrial and thus
high aerosol emission (Streets et al., 2008) and AOD (Qian
et al., 2003). Increase in anthropogenic aerosols and other air
pollutants usually causes a decrease of incoming solar radiation
(i.e., solar dimming) and cooling effect (Qian et al., 2007; Xu,
2001). Both AOD and its trend generally agree with the
temperature changes in the cool zone, especially in its north
part (Fig. 2b–c). Slight cooling are also found in the south part
of the cool zone where AOD is also relatively high; this is
probably due to combustion of biofuel in rural households and
open crop residue across the agricultural areas (Lei et al.,
2011b; Tang et al., 2013; Xue et al., 2012). Previous studies
suggested that solar dimming induced cooling effect might
have (partially) counteracted the effect of greenhouse gases on
global warming (IPCC et al., 2007; Wild et al., 2007; Ye et al.,
2010). It is probable that cooling effect of solar dimming has
exceeded GHGs warming in the cool zone (especially the north
part) in summer season during 1950s–1980s. The cool zone
shows a slight warming after 1980s presumably caused by
rapid increase in GHGs recently, however, the warming in cool
zone (0.08 °C per decade, p > 0.05) is still smaller than that of
SST (0.11 °C per decade, p b 0.05).
In contrast, steady warming of SST is observed over
adjacent oceans. These changes of temperature over land and
adjacent oceans are favorable to a weakening EASM. Xu et al.
(2006) suggested that it is probable that the weakened EASM
could not provide enough force to transport the moisture.
This is also evident in our analysis of the mean positions of
335 K moist potential temperature isolines at 850 hPa, which
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J. Ye et al. / Atmospheric Research 125–126 (2013) 12–19
Impacts of aerosol on precipitation were not only found in
China but also in other regions such as Indian (Wang, 2013)
and Sahel (Booth et al., 2012). For example, the cooling effect
of Northern Hemisphere aerosol loading caused shift in
the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone
probably attributed to the 1940–1980 drying in Sahel
(Ackerley et al., 2011; Kristjánsson et al., 2005), which share
somewhat similar mechanism with our study.
Consistent with previous study (Zhai et al., 2010), trend
detection based on PDSI suggests a wet trend over the cool
zone and extensive dry trends in the further north. The
spatial pattern of PDSI trends indicated a more extensive
tendency of dryness by considering both precipitation and
temperature than by considering precipitation data alone in
Eastern China. Considering the relative low precipitation, a
weakening EASM could be a big threat to the water
availability for daily life, agriculture, industry and ecosystem
in the extensive areas of Northern China.
5. Conclusion
Changes in summer precipitation over Eastern China are
analyzed during 1957–2008. Both weather station and udel
grid data show a “north drying and south wetting” pattern.
Such a change in precipitation pattern is found to be related to
weakening East Asia summer monsoon associated with
increased aerosol loading and AOD over the cool zone.
Continuously increasing AOD over the region leads to cooling
effect in the cool zone, and attenuates land-sea thermal
contrast together with steady warming over adjacent oceans
(the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific) in a
warming climate. The weakened EASM might keep the rainbelt
in Southern China longer in the 3rd stage of the monsoon
season, less moisture transport into Northern China in summer.
Our analysis suggests an important role of aerosols over the
China in a warming climate.
Fig. 7. Summer season moisture flux over China (a) during the 1st 26-yr
period (1957–1982), (b) the 2nd 26-yr period (1983–2008), and (c) the
difference between the two periods.
had retreated southward in summer during the second 26-yr
period. The weakened summer monsoon circulation might
restrain the isohyets in Southern China longer and less moisture
penetrates further north during summer season, especially at
the third stage of northward movement of rainbelt of the
summer monsoon circulation in July and August. Consequently,
this has led to the “north drought with south flooding”
precipitation climate pattern.
Previous study has suggested feedbacks between precipitation and temperature (Xu et al., 2006). On one hand, higher
precipitations, such as in the cool zone because of high aerosol
loading and AOD values, usually lower local temperature
due to increased evaporation and reduced radiation caused
by higher cloud coverage. On the other hand, precipitations
could remove aerosols from the atmosphere and thus increase surface radiation and air temperature. The negative
correlation between rainfall and temperature in the cool zone
(Fig. 4b) suggests that the former feedback may play a
dominate role, similar to Xu et al. (2006).
Acknowledgments
This work is supported by the Natural Science Foundation
of China #31200373. The authors are grateful to anonymous
reviewers for their valuable comments on the manuscript.
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