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Saturday, May 9, 2015
Major League Baseball Forecast
Stats from Last 5 Games
Stats are for Season to Date
NATIONAL Score W-L R/9
Atlanta
5
3-1
8.5
Washington
3
3-1
5.8
Avg HR Streak Starter TRGS IP/9 RA/9 SO/9
.355
9
L1
J. Teheran
4-2 5.5
4.6 7.6
.281
9
W2 D. Fister
2-3 6.2
3.5 4.1
St. Louis
Pittsburgh
6
1
4-1
1-3
7.0
3.3
.306
.248
6
1
W2
L1
C. Martinez
V. Worley
5-0
2-3
5.8
6.0
3.7
4.2
8.4
6.9
NY Mets
Philadelphia
0
3
2-1
1-2
3.0
3.3
.209
.269
2
2
L1
W1
J. Niese
A. Harang
2-3
4-2
6.0
6.3
3.6
2.4
6.0
6.9
Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee
7
5
2-3
2-3
5.4
4.4
.267
.217
7
6
W1
L2
T. Wood
K. Lohse
3-2
2-4
5.8
5.7
4.3
7.1
9.6
6,1
LA Dodgers
Colorado
7
2
3-2
0-3
6.0
3.0
.263
.271
9
3
W2
L8
C. Kershaw
J. DeLa Rosa
2-4
0-3
6.3
4.0
4.5
10.5
12.1
14.3
San Diego
Arizona
2
3
2-3
3-1
3.0
8.5
.216
.355
2
9
W1
L1
T. Ross
C. Anderson
2-4
1-4
5.8
5.8
4.1
3.4
10.8
8.4
Miami
San Francisco
2
3
2-3
3-2
3.6
3.4
.267
.283
3
2
L1
W1
D. Phelps
2-2
M. Bumgarner 4-2
6.0
6.3
1.9
3.1
5.6
7.6
AMERICAN Score W-L R/9
Kansas City
4
2-2
5.0
Detroit
6
2-2
4.5
Avg HR Streak Starter TRGS IP/9 RA/9 SO/9
.272
4
L1
J. Guthrie
3-2 5.8
5.5 3.4
.265
2
W2 An. Sanchez 2-4 6.0
5.3 8.8
Boston
Toronto
6
7
1-3
3-1
1.5
4.8
.169
.309
3
4
L2
W2
J. Kelly
D. Hutchison
3-2
4-2
5.8
5.2
5.6
7.8
9.6
6.1
Baltimore
NY Yankees
2
4
0-4
3-2
2.5
3.4
.235
.250
4
3
L4
W2
W. Chen
C. Whitley
3-2
1-1
5.6
6.0
4.5
0.8
6.4
8.3
Minnesota
Cleveland
7
6
4-1
1-3
7.4
5.0
.282
.212
5
5
W3
L2
P. Hughes
B. Chen
1-5
0-0
6.5
0.0
4.4
0.0
5.3
0.0
Texas
Tampa Bay
2
5
4-1
3-2
5.4
4.4
.253
.225
6
6
L1
W1
R. Detwiler
J. Odorizzi
1-4
4-2
4.8
6.8
7.9
2.2
6.4
7.0
Houston
LA Angels
4
3
1-4
3-2
1.6
3.0
.167
.237
2
6
L1
W1
D. Keuchel
5-1
M. Shoemaker 3-2
7.5
5.6
0.8
5.5
6.0
8.7
Oakland
Seattle
5
6
1-4
2-2
3.4
3.5
.233
.230
4
5
L3
W1
J. Hahn
J. Happ
5.4
6.6
5.3
3.5
5.3
6.5
AMERICAN Score W-L R/9
Cincinnati
6
2-1
4.0
Chicago Sox
2
2-1
4.3
Cincinnati
Chicago Sox
4
5
See Above
See Above
Avg HR Streak Starter
.298
4
L1
J.Cueto
.255
2
L1
H. Noesi
J. Marquis
C. Rodon
1-4
3-2
TRGS IP/9 RA/9 SO/9
3-3 7.2
2.9 8.4
0-3 6.0
4.5 7.0
4-1
0-0
5.8
0.0
5.6
0.0
Daily Major League Baseball Forecast
Saturday, May 9, 2015
8.7
0.0
TEAM LEGEND: Score is
projected final; W-L is the
team record in the past five
days; R/9 is the average
runs scored in those games;
Avg. is the batting average
and HR is the number of
home runs in five days.
PITCHER LEGEND: TRGS
is the number of times his
team has either won (1st
number) or lost (2nd number) when this pitcher has
started; IP/9 is the average
number of innings that the
starter lasts, RA/9 is the
average number of runs
allowed and includes unearned runs, and SO/9
shows the strikeouts per
nine innings pitched.
In a study of two years of
baseball results, the data
stressed that five days is a
satisfactory period that captures team trends and home
and away, in this short period of time, is not as important as the result of the
games studied as a group.
Pitchers with high strikeout
averages are normally better
ones to back that those with
lesser strikeout numbers.
Additional work has also
convinced me, and a few
other sportsbook managers,
that team performance is
more important than pitching. There are only a few
starters that have the ability
to win when their offense is
not providing much help.
The vast majority of starters
have their W-L record dictated by the number of runs
scored behind them.
Saturday, May 9, 2015
Thoroughbred
Racing
Friday Notes
Saturday Selections
Yesterday was for the most part was a favorite’s day at Belmont Park and my selections were
close to what I expected, surprised by Thirty Percent ($22.60) in the 2nd and Queens Parade
($13.80) in the 5th.
Under my guidelines of never wagering on a
horse that is 4-1 or less, my first level plays
would have been reduced to Sharpandwitty (3rd,
Out), Precarious (5th, Out), Kate is a Ten (7th,
Scratched), Holiday’s Jewel (8th, Out), Junger
(9th, Out) and Failfire (3rd, $5.20).
Second level plays occur when the top choice
is less than 4-1, and this list would have included
(1st) Fit to Keep (3rd, $2.30), and Ireland’s Eye
(6th, 2nd, $26.00). In the other races, my initial
choice was more than 4-1 and no reason to drop
down to the next horse in line.
There are many races that I skip for one reason or another, each day I quickly go through the
racing sheets to determine which events have
enough of a purse (for that particular track) to
consider racing statistics as valid.
Maiden races are normally ignored as are contests where the entrants have few performances
to consider.
Friday at Belmont I relied heavily on speed at
the same distance and the highest level the
horse has successfully reached (Finishing 1, 2 or
3 at a higher level than today’s event) and go
back at least five races.
Pittsburgh Phil once said, “The fastest horse
does not win every race but that is the way to
bet.”
-----------------------------------In my selections, some thought has to given to
selections that I have cited as ???; these choices
possess an interesting factor that I normally look
for but I am 50-50 as to whether they should be
played — It is your choice.
This is brief list of the races that I have studied
for today and my findings - plays should be only
when choice is more than 4-1.
-----------------------------------ARLINGTON PARK
1st
Case Cracker
2-1
Pass
Pine Lake
6-1
Play
—————————————————————2nd
Dennie’s Dream
9-2
???
Raja Breez
6-1
???
BELMONT PARK
3rd
Wolf Man Rocket
2-1
Pass
Tiz Shea D
12-1
???
—————————————————————2nd
Dennie’s Dream
9-2
???
Raja Breez
6-1
Play
CHURCHILL DOWNS
4th
Officer Griffin
5-2
Pass
Quimet
5-1
Play
—————————————————————5th
Shrinking Violet
5-2
Pass
Richies Party Girl
8-1
Play
SANTA ANITA
6th
Oligarch
5-2
Pass
Gangman Guy
8-1
???
Ranulf
20-1
???
—————————————————————8th
Winning Prize
5-2
Pass
Home Run Kitten
5-1
Play
WOODBINE
7th
Sniper
8-1
Play
—————————————————————8th
Skylander Girl
6-1
Play
Daily Thoroughbred Racing